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Saudi Arabia Wind Power Market set to lead the Middle East, driven by Vision 2030 renewables goals, REPDO tenders, and PIF backing, adding 6.2GW wind capacity by 2028 alongside solar PV diversification.

Key Points

It is the emerging national segment leading Middle East wind growth, targeting 6.2GW by 2028 under Vision 2030 policies.

✅ Adds 6.2GW, 46% of regional wind capacity by 2028

✅ REPDO tenders and PIF funding underpin pipeline

✅ Targets: 16GW wind, 40GW solar under Vision 2030

Saudi Arabia will become a regional heavyweight in the Middle East's wind power market adding over 6GW in the next 10 years, according to new research by Wood Mackenzie Power & Renewables.

The report – 'Middle East Wind Power Market Outlook, 2019-2028’ – said developers will build 6.2GW of wind capacity in the country or 46% of the region’s total wind capacity additions between 2019 and 2028.

Wood Mackenzie Power & Renewables senior analyst Sohaib Malik said: “The integration of renewables in Vision 2030’s objectives underlines strong political commitment within Saudi Arabia.

“The level of Saudi ambition for wind and solar PV varies significantly, despite the cost parity between both technologies during the first round of tenders in 2018.”

Saudi Arabia has set a 16GW target for wind by 2030 and 40GW for solar, plans to solicit 60 GW of clean energy over the next decade, Wood Mackenzie added.

“Moving forward, the Renewable Energy Project Development Office will award 850MW of wind capacity in 2019, which is expected to be commissioned in 2021-2022, and increase the local content requirement in future tendering rounds,” Malik said.

However, Saudi Arabia will fall short of its current 2030 renewables target, despite growth projections and regional leadership, the report said.

Some 70% of the renewables capacity target is to be supported by the Public Investment Fund (PIF), the Saudi sovereign wealth fund, while the remaining capacity is to be awarded through REPDO.

“A central concern is the PIF’s lack of track record in the renewables sector and its limited in-house sectoral expertise,” said Malik

“REPDO, on the other hand, completed two renewables request for proposals after pre-developing the sites,” he said.

PIF is estimated to have $230bn of assets – targeted to reach $2 trillion under Vision 2030 – driven by investments in a variety of sectors ranging from electric vehicles to public infrastructure, Wood Mackenzie said.

“There is little doubt about the fund’s financial muscle, however, its past investment strategy focused on established firms in traditional industries,” Malik added.

“Aspirations to develop a value chain for wind and PV technologies locally is a different ball game and requires the PIF to acquire new capabilities for effective oversight of these ventures,” he said.

The report noted that regional volatility is expected to remain, with strong positive growth, driven by Jordan and Iran in 2018 expected to reverse in 2019, and policy shifts, as in Canada’s scaled-back projections, can influence outcomes.

Post-2020 Wood Mackenzie Power & Renewables sees regional demand returning to steady growth as global renewables set more records elsewhere.

“In 2018, developers added 185MW and 63MW of wind capacity in Jordan and Iran, respectively, compared to 53MW of capacity across the entire region in 2017, following a record year for renewables in 2016,” said Malik.

“The completion of the 89MW Al Fujeij and the 86MW Al Rajef projects in 2018 indicates that Jordan has 375MW of the region’s operational 675MW wind capacity.

“Iran followed with 278MW of installed capacity at the end of 2018. A slowdown in 2019 is expected, as project development activity softens in Iran.

“Additionally, delays in awarding the 400MW Dumat Al Jandal project in Saudi Arabia will limit annual capacity additions to 184MW.”

He added that a maturing project pipeline in the region supports the 2020-2021 outlook, even as wind power grew despite Covid-19 globally.

“Saudi Arabian demand serves as the foundation for regional demand. Regional demand diversification is also occurring, with Lebanon set to add 200-400MW to its existing permitted capacity pipeline of 202MW in 2019,” he said

“These developments pave the way for the addition of 2GW of wind capacity between 2019 and 2021.”

Wood Mackenzie Power & Renewables added that the outlook for solar in the region is “much more positive” than wind.

“Compared to only 6GW of wind power capacity, developers will add 53GW of PV capacity through 2024,” said Malik.

He added: “Solar PV, supported by trends such as China’s rapid PV growth in 2016, has become a natural choice for many countries in the region, which is endowed with world class solar energy resources.

“The increased focus on solar energy is demonstrated by ambitious PV targets across the region.”

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Alberta wind power surpasses coal as AESO reports record renewable energy feeding the grid, with natural gas conversions, solar growth, energy storage, and decarbonization momentum lowering carbon intensity across Alberta's electricity system.

Key Points

AESO data shows wind surpassing coal in Alberta, driven by coal retirements, gas conversions, and growing renewables.

✅ AESO reports wind output above coal several times this week

✅ Coal units retire or convert to natural gas, boosting renewables

✅ Carbon intensity falls; storage and solar improve grid reliability

Marking a significant shift in Alberta energy history, wind generation trends provided more power to the province's energy grid than coal several times this week.

According to data from the Alberta Energy System Operator (AESO) released this week, wind generation units contributed more energy to the grid than coal at times for several days. On Friday afternoon, wind farms contributed more than 1,700 megawatts of power to the grid, compared to around 1,260 megawatts from coal stations.

"The grid is going through a period of transformative change when we look at the generation fleet, specifically as it relates to the coal assets in the province," Mike Deising, AESO spokesperson, told CTV News in an interview.

The shift in electricity generation comes as more coal plants come offline in Alberta, or transition to cleaner energy through natural gas generation, including the last of TransAlta's units at the Keephills Plant west of Edmonton.

Only three coal generation stations remain online in the province, at the Genesee plant southwest of Edmonton, as the coal phase-out timeline advances. Less available coal power, means renewable energy like wind and solar make up a greater portion of the grid.

EVOLUTION OF THE GRID
"Our grid is changing, and it's evolving," Deising said, adding that more units have converted to natural gas and companies are making significant investments into solar and wind energy.

For energy analyst Kevin Birn with IHS Markit, that trend is only going to continue.

"What we've seen for the last 24 to 36 months is a dramatic acceleration in ambition, policy, and projects globally around cleaner forms of energy or lower carbon forms of energy," Birn said.

Birn, who is also chief analyst of Canadian Oil Markets, added that not only has the public appetite for cleaner energy helped fuel the shift, but technological advancements have made renewables like wind and solar more cost-efficient.

"Alberta was traditionally heavily coal-reliant," he said. "(Now) western Canada has quite a diverse energy base."

LESS CARBON-INTENSIVE
According to Birn, the shift in energy production marks a significant reduction in carbon emissions as Alberta progresses toward its last coal plant closure milestone.

Ten years ago, IHS Markit estimates that Alberta's grid contributed about 900 kilograms of carbon dioxide equivalent per megawatt-hour of energy generation.

"That (figure is) really representing the dominance and role of coal in that grid," Birn said.

Current estimates show that figure is closer to 600 kilograms of CO2 equivalent.

"That means the power you and I are using is less carbon-intensive," Birn said, adding that figure will continue to fall over the next couple of years.

RENEWABLES HERE TO STAY
While many debate whether Alberta's energy is getting clean enough fast enough, Birn believes change is coming.

"It's been a half-decade of incredible price volatility in the oil market which had really dominated this sector and region," the analyst said.

"When I think of the future, I see the power sector building on large-scale renewables, which means decarbonization, and that provides an opportunity for those tech companies looking for clean energy places to land facilities."

Coal and natural gas are considered baseline assets by the AESO, where generation capacity does not shift dramatically, though some utilities report declining coal returns in other markets.

"Wind is a variable resource. It will generate when the wind is blowing, and it obviously won't when the wind is not," Deising said. "Wind and solar can ramp quickly, but they can drop off quite quickly, and we have to be prepared.

"We factor that into our daily planning and assessments," he added. "We follow those trends and know where the renewables are going to show up on the system, how many renewables are going to show up."

Deising says one wind plant in Alberta currently has an energy storage capacity to preserve renewably generated electricity during summer demand records and peak hours as needed. As the technology becomes more affordable, he expects more plants to follow suit.

"As a system operator, our job is to make sure as (the grid) is evolving we can continue to provide reliable power to Albertans at every moment every day," Deising said. "We just have to watch the system more carefully." 

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Texas PUC Spanish Power to Choose mandates bilingual parity in deregulated electricity markets, ensuring equal access to plans, transparent pricing, consumer protection, and provider listings for Spanish speakers, mirroring the English site offerings statewide.

Key Points

PUC mandate requiring identical Spanish and English plan listings for fair access in the deregulated power market.

✅ Orders parity across English and Spanish plan listings

✅ Increases transparency in a deregulated electricity market

✅ Deadline set for providers to post on both sites

The state’s Public Utility Commission has ordered that the Spanish-language version of the Power to Choose website provide the same options available on the English version of the site, a move that comes as shopping for electricity is getting cheaper statewide.

Texas is one of a handful of states with a deregulated electricity market, with ongoing market reforms under consideration to avoid blackouts. The idea is to give consumers the option to pick power plans that they think best fit their needs. Customers can find available plans on the state’s Power To Choose website, or its Spanish-language counterpart, Poder de Escoger. In theory, those two sites should have the exact same offerings, so no one is disadvantaged. But the Texas Public Utility Commission found that wasn’t the case.

Houston Chronicle business reporter Lynn Sixel has been covering this story. She says the Power to Choose website is important for consumers facing the difficult task of choosing an electric provider in a deregulated state, where electricity complaints have recently reached a three-year high for Texans.

“There are about 57 providers listed on the [English] Power to Choose website, and news about retailers like Griddy underscores how varied the offerings can be across providers. [Last week] there were only 23 plans on the Spanish Power to Choose site,” Sixel says. “If you speak Spanish and you’re looking for a low-cost plan, as of last week, it would have been difficult to find some of the really great offers.”

Mustafa Tameez, managing director of Outreach Strategists, a Houston firm that consults with companies and nonprofits on diversity, described this issue as a type of redlining.

“He’s referring to a practice that banks would use to circle areas on maps in which the bank decided they did not want to lend money or would charge higher rates,” Sixel says. “Typically it was poor minority neighborhoods. Those folks would not get the same great deals that their Anglo neighbors would get.”

DeAnn Walker, chairman of the Public Utility Commission, said she was not at all happy about the plans listings in a meeting Friday, against a backdrop where Texas utilities have recently backed out of a plan to create smart home electricity networks.

“She gave a deadline of 8 a.m. Monday morning for any providers who wanted to put their plans on the Power to Choose website, must put them on both the Spanish language and the English language versions,” Sixel says. “All the folks that I talked to really had no idea that there were different plans on both sites and I think that there was sort of an assumption.”

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France Nuclear Power Strategy illustrates a low-carbon, reliable baseload complementing renewables in the energy transition, enhancing grid reliability, energy security, and emissions reduction, offering actionable lessons for Germany on infrastructure, policy, and public acceptance.

Key Points

France's nuclear strategy is a low-carbon baseload model supporting renewables, grid reliability, and energy security.

✅ Stable low-carbon baseload complements intermittent renewables

✅ Enhances grid reliability and national energy security

✅ Requires long-term investment, safety, and waste management

In recent months, France has showcased the critical role that nuclear power plants can play in an energy transition, offering valuable lessons for Germany and other countries grappling with their own energy challenges. As Europe continues to navigate its path towards a sustainable and reliable energy system, France's experience with nuclear energy underscores its potential benefits and the complexities involved, including outage risks in France that operators must manage effectively.

France, a long-time proponent of nuclear energy, generates about 70% of its electricity from nuclear power, making it one of the most nuclear-dependent countries in the world. This high reliance on nuclear energy has allowed France to maintain a stable and low-carbon electricity supply, which is increasingly significant as nations aim to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, even as Europe's nuclear capacity declines in several markets, and combat climate change.

Recent events in France have highlighted several key aspects of nuclear power's role in energy transition:

1. Reliability and Stability: During periods of high renewable energy generation or extreme weather events, nuclear power plants have proven to be a stable and reliable source of electricity. Unlike solar and wind power, which are intermittent and depend on weather conditions, nuclear plants provide a consistent and continuous supply of power. This stability is crucial for maintaining grid reliability and ensuring that energy demand is met even when renewable sources are not producing electricity.

2. Low Carbon Footprint: France’s commitment to nuclear energy has significantly contributed to its low carbon emissions. By relying heavily on nuclear power, France has managed to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions substantially compared to many other countries. This achievement is particularly relevant as Europe strives to meet ambitious climate targets, with debates over a nuclear option in Germany highlighting climate trade-offs, and reduce overall carbon footprints. The low emissions associated with nuclear power make it an important tool for achieving climate goals and transitioning away from fossil fuels.

3. Energy Security: Nuclear power has played a vital role in France's energy security. The country’s extensive network of nuclear power plants ensures a stable and secure supply of electricity, reducing its dependency on imported energy sources. This energy security is particularly important in the context of global energy market fluctuations and geopolitical uncertainties. France’s experience demonstrates how nuclear energy can contribute to a nation’s energy independence and resilience.

4. Economic Benefits: The nuclear industry in France also provides significant economic benefits. It supports thousands of jobs in construction, operation, and maintenance of power plants, as well as in the supply chain for nuclear fuel and waste management. Additionally, the stable and relatively low cost of nuclear-generated electricity can contribute to lower energy prices for consumers and businesses, enhancing economic stability.

Germany, in contrast, has been moving away from nuclear energy, particularly following the Fukushima disaster in 2011. The country has committed to phasing out its nuclear reactors by 2022 and focusing on expanding renewable energy sources such as wind and solar power. While Germany's renewable energy transition has made significant strides, it has also faced challenges related to grid stability, as Germany's energy balancing act illustrates for policymakers, energy storage, and maintaining reliable power supplies during periods of low renewable generation.

France’s experience with nuclear energy offers several lessons for Germany and other nations considering their own energy strategies:

• Balanced Energy Mix: A diverse energy mix that includes nuclear power alongside renewable sources can help ensure a stable and reliable electricity supply, as ongoing discussions about a nuclear resurgence in Germany emphasize for policymakers today. While renewable energy is essential for reducing carbon emissions, it can be intermittent and may require backup from other sources to maintain grid reliability. Nuclear power can complement renewable energy by providing a steady and consistent supply of electricity.

• Investment in Infrastructure: To maximize the benefits of nuclear energy, investment in infrastructure is crucial. This includes not only the construction and maintenance of power plants but also the development of waste management systems and safety protocols. France’s experience demonstrates the importance of long-term planning and investment to ensure the safe and effective use of nuclear technology.

• Public Perception and Policy: Public perception of nuclear energy can significantly impact its adoption and deployment, and ongoing Franco-German nuclear disputes show how politics shape outcomes across borders. Transparent communication, rigorous safety standards, and effective waste management are essential for addressing public concerns and building trust in nuclear technology. France’s successful use of nuclear power is partly due to its emphasis on safety and regulatory compliance.

In conclusion, France's experience with nuclear power provides valuable insights into the role that this technology can play in an energy transition. By offering a stable, low-carbon, and reliable source of electricity, nuclear power complements renewable energy sources and supports overall energy security. As Germany and other countries navigate their energy transitions, France's example underscores the importance of a balanced energy mix, robust infrastructure, and effective public engagement in harnessing the benefits of nuclear power while addressing associated challenges, with industry voices such as Eon boss on nuclear debate underscoring the sensitivity of cross-border critiques.

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CAISO Clean Energy Transition outlines California's path to 100% carbon-free power by 2045, scaling renewables, battery storage, and offshore wind while safeguarding grid reliability, managing natural gas, and leveraging Western markets like EDAM.

Key Points

CAISO Clean Energy Transition is the plan to reach 100% carbon-free power by 2045 while maintaining grid reliability.

✅ Target: add 7 GW/year to reach 120 GW capacity by 2045

✅ Battery storage up 30x; smooths intermittent solar and wind

✅ EDAM and WEIM enhance imports, savings, and reliability

Mark Rothleder, Chief Operating Officer and Senior Vice President at the California Independent System Operator (CAISO), which manages roughly 80% of California’s electric grid, has expressed cautious optimism about meeting the state's ambitious clean energy targets while keeping the lights on across the grid. However, he acknowledges that this journey will not be without its challenges.

California aims to transition its power system to 100% carbon-free sources by 2045, ensuring a reliable electricity supply at reasonable costs for consumers. Rothleder, aware of the task's enormity, likens it to a complex car repair performed while the vehicle is in motion.

Recent achievements have demonstrated California's ability to temporarily sustain its grid using clean energy sources. According to Rothleder, the real challenge lies in maintaining this performance round the clock, every day of the year.

Adding thousands of megawatts of renewable energy into California’s existing 50-gigawatt system, which needs to expand to 120 gigawatts to meet the 2045 goal, poses a significant challenge, though recent grid upgrade funding offers some support for needed infrastructure. CAISO estimates that an addition of 7 gigawatts of clean power per year for the next two decades is necessary, all while ensuring uninterrupted power delivery.

While natural gas currently constitutes California's largest single source of power, Rothleder notes the need to gradually decrease reliance on it, even as it remains an operational necessity in the transition phase.

In 2023, CAISO added 5,660 megawatts of new power to the grid, with plans to integrate over 1,100 additional megawatts in the next six to eight months of 2024. Battery storage, crucial for mitigating the intermittent nature of wind and solar power, has seen substantial growth as California turns to batteries for grid support, increasing 30-fold in three years.

Rothleder emphasizes that electricity reliability is paramount, as consumers always expect power availability. He also highlights the potential of offshore wind projects to significantly contribute to California's power mix by 2045.

The offshore wind industry faces financial and supply chain challenges despite these plans. CAISO’s 20-year outlook indicates a significant increase in utility-scale solar, requiring extensive land use and wider deployment of advanced inverters for grid stability.

Addressing affordability is vital, especially as California residents face increasing utility bills. Rothleder suggests a broader energy cost perspective, encompassing utility and transportation expenses.

Despite smooth grid operations in 2023, challenges in previous years, including extreme weather-induced power outages driven by climate change, underscore the need for a robust, adaptable grid. California imports about a quarter of its power from neighbouring states and participates in the Western Energy Imbalance Market, which has yielded significant savings.

CAISO is also working on establishing an extended day-ahead electricity market (EDAM) to enhance the current energy market's success, building on insights from a Western grid integration report that supports expanded coordination.

Rothleder believes that a thoughtfully designed, diverse power system can offer greater reliability and resilience in the long run. A future grid reliant on multiple, smaller power sources such as microgrids could better absorb potential losses, ensuring a more reliable electricity supply for California.

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U.S. EV Market Share Dip Q1 2024 reflects slower BEV adoption, rising PHEV demand, affordability concerns, charging infrastructure gaps, tax credit shifts, range anxiety, and automaker strategy adjustments across the electric vehicle market.

Key Points

Q1 2024 EV and hybrid share slipped as BEV sales lag, PHEVs rise, and affordability and charging concerns temper demand.

✅ BEV share fell to 7.0% as affordable models remain limited

✅ PHEV sales rose 50% YoY, easing range anxiety concerns

✅ Policy shifts and charging gaps weigh on consumer adoption

The U.S. electric vehicle (EV) market, once a beacon of unbridled growth, appears to be experiencing a course correction. Data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reveals that the combined market share of electric vehicles (battery electric vehicles, or BEVs) and hybrids dipped slightly in the first quarter of 2024, marking the first decline since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, even as EU EV share rose during lockdowns in 2020.

This news comes as a surprise to many analysts who predicted continued exponential growth for the EV market. While overall sales of electric vehicles surged into 2024 and did increase by 7% compared to Q1 2023, this growth wasn't enough to keep pace with the overall rise in vehicle sales. The result: a decline in market share from 18.8% in Q4 2023 to 18.0% in Q1 2024.

Several factors may be contributing to this shift. One potential culprit is a slowdown in battery electric vehicle sales. BEVs saw their share of the market dip from 8.1% to 7.0% in the same period. This could be attributed to a lack of readily available affordable options, with many popular EV models still commanding premium prices and concerns that EV supply may miss demand in the near term.

Another factor could be the rising interest in plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs). PHEV sales witnessed a significant jump of 50% year-over-year, reflecting how gas-electric hybrids are getting a boost from major automakers, potentially indicating a consumer preference for vehicles that offer both electric and gasoline powertrain options, addressing concerns about range anxiety often associated with BEVs.

Industry experts offer mixed interpretations of this data. Some downplay the significance of the dip, attributing it to a temporary blip, even though EVs remain behind gas cars in total sales. They point to the ongoing commitment from major automakers to invest in EV production and the potential for new, more affordable models to hit the market soon.

Others express more concern, citing Europe's recent EV slump and suggesting this might be a sign of maturing consumer preferences. They argue that simply increasing the number of EVs on the market might not be enough. Automakers need to address issues like affordability, charging infrastructure, and range anxiety to maintain momentum.

The role of government incentives also remains a question mark. The federal tax credit for electric vehicles is currently set to phase out gradually, potentially impacting consumer purchasing decisions in the future. Continued government support, through incentives or infrastructure development, could be crucial in maintaining consumer interest.

The coming quarters will be crucial in determining the long-term trajectory of the U.S. EV market, especially after the global electric car market's rapid expansion in recent years. Whether this is a temporary setback or a more lasting trend remains to be seen. Addressing consumer concerns, ensuring a diverse range of affordable EV options, and continued government support will all be essential in ensuring the continued growth of this critical sector.

This development also presents an opportunity for traditional automakers. By capitalizing on the growing PHEV market and addressing consumer concerns about affordability and range anxiety, they can carve out a strong position in the evolving automotive landscape.

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