Ontario's power supply outlook positive

By Ontario's Independent Electricity System Operator IESO


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Ontario's positive supply outlook over the next 18 months includes new resources - two refurbished units at the Bruce nuclear station plus the province's first grid-connected solar farm - as well as new tools to effectively integrate renewable resources. The quarterly 18-Month Outlook, released recently by the Independent Electricity System Operator IESO, provides an assessment of the adequacy and reliability of Ontario's bulk power system.

Approximately 2,200 megawatts MW of grid-connected renewable capacity will be added to the system between December 2012 and May 2014, including the completion of Ontario's first transmission-connected solar project, a 100 MW solar farm in Haldimand County. By May 2014, distribution- and transmission-connected wind and solar generation in Ontario is expected to reach approximately 5,500 MW.

The refurbishment and reliable operation of two Bruce nuclear units is an integral requirement for the scheduled elimination of coal-fired capacity. Both Bruce nuclear units have now completed commissioning and once these units have demonstrated sustained reliable performance, Ontario will be in a good position to continue the removal of coal-fired generation from the system.

The IESO is continuing with plans to move to an economic dispatch of variable generation. Regular day-ahead and pre-dispatch generator scheduling processes now incorporate a centralized forecast of wind output, which has improved the accuracy of forecasted wind production. In time, this forecast will also include Ontario's large solar facilities. By the end of 2013, a five-minute forecast for variable generation will be integrated into the real-time scheduling process and, through the introduction of new market rules, grid-connected variable resources will become fully dispatchable.

"The new tools and processes we're developing are starting to demonstrate their value," said Bruce Campbell, Vice-President of Resource Integration at the IESO. "Renewable resources behave very differently from conventional resources like nuclear and hydroelectric, and we're investing in new technologies to extract maximum benefit from these units."

Energy demand is forecast to decrease by 1.1 in 2013 after a small 0.5 increase in 2012. Factors such as growth in embedded generation capacity, which reduces demand from the bulk power system, and ongoing conservation initiatives will more than offset any impacts from population growth and economic expansion, leading to an overall decline in electricity consumption at the bulk power level.

Peak demands will be similarly impacted by the same factors. In particular, the projected growth in distribution-connected solar capacity will have a significant impact on the apparent summer peak by effectively reducing demand for grid-supplied energy. Additionally, price impacts like time-of-use rates and the Global Adjustment Allocation will continue to have an effect on peak demands, leading to a decline in summer peaks.

The IESO regularly assesses the adequacy and reliability of Ontario's power system. The 18-Month Outlook is issued on a quarterly basis and is available at: www.ieso.ca/18-month.outlook.nov2012.

The IESO is responsible for managing Ontario's bulk electricity system and operating the wholesale market. For more information, please visit www.ieso.ca.

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US Grid Gets an Overhaul for Renewables

FERC Transmission Planning Overhaul streamlines interregional grid buildouts, enabling high-voltage lines, renewable integration, and grid reliability to scale, cutting fossil reliance while boosting decarbonization, climate resilience, and affordability across regions facing demand and extreme weather.

 

Key Points

Federal rule updating interregional grid planning to integrate renewables, share costs, and improve reliability.

✅ Accelerates high-voltage, interregional lines for renewable transfer

✅ Optimizes transmission planning and cost allocation frameworks

✅ Boosts grid reliability, resilience, and emissions reductions

 

The US took a significant step towards a cleaner energy future on May 13th, 2024. The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) approved the first major update to the country's electric transmission policy in over a decade, while congressional Democrats continue to push for action on aggregated DERs within FERC's remit today. This overhaul aims to streamline the process of building new power lines, specifically those that connect different regions. This improved connectivity is crucial for integrating more renewable energy sources like wind and solar into the national grid.

The current system faces challenges in handling the influx of renewables, and the aging U.S. grid amplifies those hurdles today. Renewable energy sources are variable by nature – the sun doesn't always shine, and the wind doesn't always blow. Traditionally, power grids have relied on constantly running power plants, like coal or natural gas, to meet electricity demands. These plants can be easily adjusted to produce more or less power as needed. However, renewable energy sources require a different approach.

The new FERC policy focuses on building more interregional transmission lines. These high-voltage power lines would allow electricity generated in regions with abundant solar or wind power, and even enable imports of green power from Canada in certain corridors, to be transmitted to areas with lower renewable energy resources. For example, solar energy produced in sunny states like California could be delivered to meet peak demand on the East Coast during hot summer days.

This improved connectivity offers several advantages. Firstly, it allows for a more efficient use of renewable resources. Secondly, it reduces the need for fossil fuel-based power plants, leading to cleaner air and lower greenhouse gas emissions. Finally, a more robust grid is better equipped to handle extreme weather events, which are becoming increasingly common due to climate change, and while Biden's climate law shows mixed results on decarbonization, stronger transmission supports resilience.

The need for an upgrade is undeniable. The Biden administration has set ambitious goals for decarbonizing the power sector by 2035, including proposals for a clean electricity standard as a pathway to those targets. A study by the US Department of Energy estimates that achieving this target will require more than doubling the country's regional transmission capacity and increasing interregional capacity by more than fivefold. The aging US grid is already struggling to keep up with current demands, and without significant improvements, it could face reliability issues in the future.

The FERC's decision has been met with praise from environmental groups and renewable energy companies. They see it as a critical step towards achieving a clean energy future. However, some stakeholders, including investor-owned utilities, have expressed concerns about the potential costs associated with building new transmission lines, citing persistent barriers to development identified in recent Senate testimony. Finding the right balance between efficiency, affordability, and environmental responsibility will be key to the success of this initiative.

The road ahead won't be easy. Building new power lines is a complex process that can face opposition from local communities, and broader disputes over electricity pricing changes often complicate planning and approvals. However, the potential benefits of a modernized grid are significant. By investing in this overhaul, the US is taking a crucial step towards a more reliable, sustainable, and cleaner energy future.

 

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Irving Oil invests in electrolyzer to produce hydrogen from water

Irving Oil hydrogen electrolyzer expands green hydrogen capacity at the Saint John refinery with Plug Power technology, cutting carbon emissions, enabling clean fuel for buses, and supporting Atlantic Canada decarbonization and renewable grid integration.

 

Key Points

A 5 MW Plug Power unit at Irving's Saint John refinery producing low-carbon hydrogen via electrolysis.

✅ Produces 2 tonnes/day, enough to fuel about 60 hydrogen buses

✅ Uses grid power; targets cleaner supply via renewables and nuclear

✅ First Canadian refinery investing in electrolyzer technology

 

Irving Oil is expanding hydrogen capacity at its Saint John, N.B., refinery in a bid to lower carbon emissions and offer clean energy to customers.

The family-owned company said Tuesday it has a deal with New York-based Plug Power Inc. to buy a five-megawatt hydrogen electrolyzer that will produce two tonnes of hydrogen a day — equivalent to fuelling 60 buses with hydrogen — using electricity from the local grid and drawing on examples such as reduced electricity rates proposed in Ontario to grow the hydrogen economy.

Hydrogen is an important part of the refining process as it's used to lower the sulphur content of petroleum products like diesel fuel, but most refineries produce hydrogen using natural gas, which creates carbon dioxide emissions and raises questions explored in hydrogen's future for power companies in the energy sector.

"Investing in a hydrogen electrolyzer allows us to produce hydrogen in a very different way," Irving director of energy transition Andy Carson said in an interview.

"Instead of using natural gas, we're actually using water molecules and electricity through the electrolysis process to produce ... a clean hydrogen."

Irving plans to continue to work with others in the province to decarbonize the grid amid pressures like Ontario's push into energy storage as electricity supply tightens and ensure the electricity being used to power its hydrogen electrolyzer is as clean as possible, he said.

N.B. Power's electrical system includes 14 generating stations powered by hydro, coal, oil, wind, nuclear and diesel. The utility has committed to increasing its renewable energy sources and exploring innovations such as EV-to-grid integration piloted in Nova Scotia.

Irving said it will be the first oil refinery in Canada to invest in electrolyzer technology, as Ontario's Hydrogen Innovation Fund supports broader deployment nationwide.

The company said its goal is to offer hydrogen fuelling infrastructure in Atlantic Canada, complementing N.L.'s fast-charging network for EV drivers in the region.

"This kind of investment allows us to not just move to a cleaner form of hydrogen in the refinery. It also allows us to store and make hydrogen available to the marketplace," Carson said.

Federal watchdog warns Canada's 2030 emissions target may not be achievable
The hydrogen technology will help Irving "unlock pent up demand for hydrogen as an energy transition fuel for logistics organizations," he said.

Alberta also aims to expand its hydrogen production over the coming years, alongside British Columbia's $900 million hydrogen project moving ahead on the West Coast. 

Those plans lean on the development of carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology that aims to trap the emissions created when producing hydrogen from natural gas.

 

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U.S. Speeds Up Permitting for Geothermal Energy

Geothermal Emergency Permitting accelerates BLM approvals on public lands via categorical exclusions for exploratory drilling and geophysical surveys, boosting domestic energy security, cutting timelines by up to a year, and streamlining low-impact reviews.

 

Key Points

A policy fast-tracking geothermal exploration on public lands, using BLM categorical exclusions to cut review delays.

✅ Categorical exclusions speed exploratory drilling approvals

✅ Cuts permitting timelines by up to one year

✅ Focused on public lands to enhance energy security

 

In a significant policy shift, the U.S. Department of the Interior has introduced emergency permitting procedures aimed at expediting the development of geothermal energy projects. This initiative, announced on May 30, 2025, is part of a broader strategy to enhance domestic energy production, seen in proposals to replace Obama's power plant overhaul and reduce reliance on foreign energy sources.

Background and Rationale

The decision to fast-track geothermal energy projects comes in the wake of President Donald Trump's declaration of a national energy emergency, which faces a legal challenge from Washington's attorney general, on January 20, 2025. This declaration cited high energy costs and an unreliable energy grid as threats to national security and economic prosperity. While the emergency order includes traditional energy resources such as oil, gas, coal, and uranium and nuclear energy resources, it notably excludes renewable sources like solar, wind, and hydrogen from its scope.

Geothermal energy, which harnesses heat from beneath the Earth's surface to generate electricity, is considered a reliable and low-emission energy source. However, its development has been hindered by lengthy permitting processes and environmental reviews, with recent NEPA rule changes influencing timelines. The new emergency permitting procedures aim to address these challenges by streamlining the approval process for geothermal projects.

Key Features of the Emergency Permitting Procedures

Under the new guidelines, the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) has adopted categorical exclusions to expedite the review and approval of geothermal energy exploration on public lands. These exclusions allow for faster permitting of low-impact activities, such as drilling exploratory wells and conducting geophysical surveys, without the need for extensive environmental assessments.

Additionally, the BLM has proposed a new categorical exclusion that would apply to operations related to the search for indirect evidence of geothermal resources. This proposal is currently open for public comment and, if finalized, would further accelerate the discovery of new geothermal resources on public lands.

Expected Impact on Geothermal Energy Development

The implementation of these emergency permitting procedures is expected to significantly reduce the time and cost associated with developing geothermal energy projects. According to the Department of the Interior, the new measures could cut permitting timelines by up to a year for certain types of geothermal exploration activities.

This acceleration in project development is particularly important given the untapped geothermal potential in regions like Nevada, which is home to some of the largest undeveloped geothermal resources in the country.

Industry and Environmental Reactions

The geothermal industry has largely welcomed the new permitting procedures, viewing them as a necessary step to unlock the full potential of geothermal energy. Industry advocates argue that reducing permitting delays will facilitate the deployment of geothermal projects, contributing to a more reliable and sustainable energy grid amid debates over electricity pricing changes that affect market signals.

However, the exclusion of solar and wind energy projects from the emergency permitting procedures has drawn criticism from some environmental groups. Critics argue that a comprehensive approach to energy development should include all renewable sources, not just geothermal, to effectively address climate change, as reflected in new EPA pollution limits for coal and gas power plants, and promote energy sustainability.

The U.S. government's move to implement emergency permitting procedures for geothermal energy development marks a significant step toward enhancing domestic energy production and reducing reliance on foreign energy sources. By streamlining the approval process for geothermal projects, the administration aims to accelerate the deployment of this reliable and low-emission energy source. While the exclusion of other renewable energy sources from the emergency procedures has sparked debate, especially after states like California halted an energy rebate program during a federal freeze, the focus on geothermal energy underscores its potential role in the nation's energy future.

 

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Ontario faces growing electricity supply gap, study finds

Ontario Electricity Capacity Gap threatens reliability as IESO forecasts shortfalls from the Pickering shutdown and rapid electrification, requiring new low-emission nuclear generation to meet net-zero targets, maintain baseload, and stabilize the grid.

 

Key Points

Expected 2030 shortfalls from Pickering closure and electrification, requiring new low-emission nuclear to meet net-zero.

✅ IESO projects a 3.6-9.5 GW capacity gap by 2030

✅ Pickering shutdown removes baseload, stressing reliability

✅ New low-emission nuclear needed to meet net-zero targets

 

Ontario faces an electricity supply shortage and reliability risks in the next four to eight years and will not meet net-zero objectives without building new low-emission, nuclear generation starting as soon as possible, according to a report released yesterday by the Power Workers' Union (PWU). The capacity needed to fill the expected supply gap will be equivalent to doubling the province's planned nuclear fleet in eight years.

The planned closure of the Pickering nuclear power plant in 2025 and the increase in demand from electrification of the economy are the drivers behind a capacity gap in 2030 of at least 3.6 GW which could widen to as much as 9.5 GW, Electrification Pathways for Ontario to Reduce Emissions, finds. Ontario's Independent Electricity System Operator (IESO) has since 2013 been forecasting a significant gap in the province's electricity supply due the closure of Pickering, but has been underestimating the impact of electrification, the report says.

In addition, the electrification of buildings, transport and industry sectors that will be needed to achieve goals of net-zero emissions by 2050 that being set by the federal government and civil society will see the province's electricity demand increase by at least 130% over current planning forecasts, and potentially by over 190%. Leveraging electricity, natural gas and hydrogen synergies can reduce supply needs, but 55 GW of new electricity capacity, including new large-scale nuclear plants, will still be needed by 2050 - four times Ontario's current nuclear and hydro assets - the report finds.

These findings underscore the urgent need for a paradigm shift in Ontario's electricity planning and procurement process, the authors say, adding that immediate action is needed both to mitigate the system reliability risks and enable the significant societal benefits needed to pursue net-zero objectives. Planning for procurement to replace Pickering's capacity, or to pursue life extension options, must begin as soon as possible.

"Policymakers around the world realise climate change can't be tackled without nuclear. Ontario's nuclear fleet has delivered emissions reductions for over 50 years," PWU President Jeff Parnell said. "In fact, without building new nuclear units, Ontario will miss its emission reduction targets and carbon emissions from electricity generation will rise dramatically, as explored in why Ontario's power could get dirtier today."

"This report clearly shows that Ontario cannot sustain the low-carbon status of its hydro and nuclear-based electricity system, decarbonise its economy and meet its carbon reduction targets without new nuclear or continued operation at Pickering in the near term. Most disturbing is the fact that we are already well behind and needed to start planning for this capacity yesterday," he said.

The six operating Candu reactors at Ontario Power Generation's Pickering plant have been kept in operation to provide baseload electricity during the refurbishment of units at the Darlington and Bruce plants. Currently, the company plans to shut down Pickering units 1 and 4 in 2024 and units 5 to 8 in 2025, even as Ontario moves to refurbish Pickering B to extend life.

 

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Electricity subsidies to pulp and paper mills to continue, despite NB Power's rising debt

NB Power Pulp and Paper Subsidies lower electricity rates for six New Brunswick mills using firm power benchmarks and interruptible discounts, while government mandates, utility debt, ratepayer impacts, and competitiveness pressures shape provincial energy policy.

 

Key Points

Provincial mandates that buy down firm electricity rates for six mills to a national average, despite NB Power's debt.

✅ Mandated buy-down to match national firm electricity rates

✅ Ignores large non-firm interruptible power discounts

✅ Raises equity concerns amid NB Power debt and rate pressure

 

An effort to fix NB Power's struggling finances that is supposed to involve a look at "all options" will not include a review of the policy that requires the utility to subsidize electricity prices for six New Brunswick pulp and paper mills, according to the Department of Natural Resources and Energy Development.

The program is meant "to enable New Brunswick's pulp and paper companies have access to competitive priced electricity,"  said the department's communications officer Nick Brown in an email Monday 

"Keeping our large industries competitive with other Canadian jurisdictions, amid Nova Scotia rate hike opposition debates elsewhere, is important," he wrote, knocking down the idea the subsidy program might be scrutinized for shortcomings like other NB Power expenses.

Figures released last week show NB Power paid out $9.7 million in rate subsidies to the mills under the program in the fiscal year ended in March 2021, even though the utility was losing $4 million for the year and falling deeper into debt, amid separate concerns about old meter issues affecting households.

Subsidies went to three mills owned by J.D. Irving Ltd. including two in Saint John and one in Lake Utopia, two owned by the AV group in Nackawic and Atholville and the Twin Rivers pulp mill in Edmundston.

The New Brunswick government has made NB Power subsidize pulp and paper mills like Twin Rivers Paper Company since 2012, and is requiring the program to continue despite financial problems at the utility. (CBC)
It was NB Power's second year in a row of financial losses, while it is supposed to pay down $500 million of its $4.9 billion debt load in the next five years to prepare for the refurbishment of the Mactaquac dam, a burden comparable to customers in Newfoundland paying for Muskrat Falls elsewhere under separate policies, under a directive issued by the province

NB Power president Keith Cronkhite said he was "very disappointed" with debt increasing last year instead of  falling and senior vice president and chief financial officer Darren Murphy said everything would be under the microscope this year to turn the utility's finances around.  

"We need to do better," said Murphy on Thursday

"We need to step back and make sure we're considering all options, including approaches like Newfoundland's ratepayer shield agreement on megaproject overruns, to achieve that objective because the objective is quickly closing in on us."

However, reviewing the subsidy program for the six pulp and paper mills is apparently off limits.

The subsidy program requires NB Power to buy down the cost of "firm" electricity bought by pulp and paper mills to a national average that is calculated by the Department of Natural Resources and Energy Development.

Last year the province declared the price mills in New Brunswick pay to be an average of  7.536 cents per kilowatt hour (kwh).  It is higher than rates in five other provinces that have mills, which the province points to as justification for the subsidies, even as Nova Scotia's 14% rate hike approval highlights broader upward pressure, although the true significance of that difference is not entirely clear.

In British Columbia, the large forest products company Paper Excellence operates five pulp and paper mills which are charged 17.2 per cent less for firm electricity than the six mills in New Brunswick.

The Paper Excellence Paper Mill in Port Alberni, B.C. pays lower electricity prices than mills in New Brunswick, a benefit largely offset by higher property taxes. It's a factor New Brunswick does not count in calculating subsidies NB Power must pay. (Paper Excellence)
However, local property taxes on the five BC mills are a combined $7.8 million higher than the six New Brunswick plants, negating much of that difference.

The province's subsidy formula does not account for differences like that or for the fact New Brunswick mills buy a high percentage of their electricity at cheap non-firm prices.

Not counting the subsidies, NB Power already sells high volumes of what it calls interruptible and surplus power to industry at deep discounts on the understanding it can be cut off and redeployed elsewhere on short notice when needed.

Actual interruptions in service are rare.  Last year there were none, but NB Power sold 837 million kilowatt hours of the discounted power to industry at an average price of 4.9 cents per kwh.   

NB Power does not disclose how much of the $22 million or more in savings went to the six mills, but the price was 35 per cent below NB Power's posted rate for the plants and rivaled firm prices big mills receive anywhere in Canada, including Quebec.

Asked why the subsidy program ignores large amounts of discounted interruptible power used by New Brunswick mills in making comparisons between provinces, Brown said regulations governing the program require a comparison of firm prices only.

"The New Brunswick average rate is based on NB Power's published large industrial rate for firm energy, as required by the Electricity from Renewable Resources regulation," he wrote.

The subsidy program itself was imposed on NB Power by the province in 2012 to aid companies suffering after years of poor markets for forest products following the 2008 financial collapse and recession.  

Providing subsidies has cost NB Power $100 million so far and has continued even as markets for pulp products improved significantly and NB Power's own finances worsened.

Report warned against subsidies
NB Power has never directly criticized the program, but in a matter currently in front the of the New Brunswick Energy and Utilities Board looking at how NB Power might restructure its rates, including proposals such as seasonal rates that could prompt backlash, an independent consultant hired by the utility suggested rate subsidies to large export oriented manufacturing facilities, like pulp and paper mills, is generally a poor idea.

"We do not recommend offering subsidies to exporters," says the report by Christensen Associates Energy Consulting of Madison, Wis.

"There are two serious economic problems with subsidizing exports. The first is that the benefits may be less than the costs. The second problem is that subsidies tend to last forever, even if the circumstances that initially justified the subsidies have disappeared."

The Christensen report did not directly assess the merits of the current subsidy for pulp and paper mills but it addressed the issue because it said in the design of new rates "one NB Power business customer has raised the possibility that their electricity-intensive business ought to be granted subsidies because of the potential to generate extra benefits for the Province through increases in their exports"

That, said Christensen, rarely benefits the public.

"The direct costs of the subsidies are the subsidies themselves, a part of which ends up in the pockets of out-of-province consumers of the exported goods," said the report.  

"But there are also indirect costs due to the fact that the subsidies are financed through higher electricity prices, which means that other electricity customers have less money to spend on services provided by local businesses, thus putting a drag on the local economy."

The province does not agree.

Asked whether it has any studies or cost-benefit reviews that show the subsidy program is a net benefit to New Brunswick, the department cited none but maintained it is an important initiative, even as elsewhere governments have offered electricity bill credit relief to ratepayers.

"The program was designed to give large industrial businesses the ability to compete on a level energy field," wrote Brown.
 

 

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Europe's stunted hydro & nuclear output may hobble recovery drive

Europe 2023 Energy Shortfall underscores how weak hydro and nuclear offset record solar and wind, tightening grids as natural gas supplies shrink and demand rebounds, heightening risks of electricity shortages across key economies.

 

Key Points

A regional gap as weak hydro and nuclear offset record solar and wind, straining supply as gas stays tight.

✅ Hydro and nuclear output fell sharply in early 2023

✅ Record solar and wind could not offset the deficit

✅ Industrial demand rebound pressures limited gas supplies

 

Shortfalls in Europe's hydro and nuclear output have more than offset record electricity generation from wind and solar power sites over the first quarter of 2023, leaving the region vulnerable to acute energy shortages for the second straight year.

European countries fast-tracked renewable energy capacity development in 2022 in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine last February, which upended natural gas flows to the region and sent power prices soaring.

Europe lifted renewable energy supply capacity by a record 57,290 megawatts in 2022, or by nearly 9%, according to the International Energy Agency (IRENA), amid a scramble to replace imported Russian gas with cleaner, home-grown energy.

However, steep drops in both hydro and nuclear output - two key sources of non-emitting energy - mean Europe's power producers have limited ways to lift overall electricity generation, as the region is losing nuclear power at a critical moment, just as the region's economies start to reboot after last year's energy shock.

POWER PLATEAU
Europe's total electricity generation over the first quarter of 2023 hit 1,213 terawatt hours, or roughly 6.4% less than during the same period in 2022, according to data from think tank Ember.

At the same time, European power hits records during extreme heat as plants struggle to cool, exacerbating supply risks.

As Europe's total electricity demand levels were in post-COVID-19 expansion mode in early 2022 before Russia's so-called special operation sent power costs to record highs amid debates over how electricity is priced in Europe, it makes sense that overall electricity use was comparatively stunted in early 2023.

However, efforts are now underway to revive activity at scores of European factories, industrial plants and production lines that were shuttered or curtailed in 2022, so Europe's collective electricity consumption totals are set to trend steadily higher over the remainder of 2023.

With Russian natural gas unavailable in the previous quantities due to sanctions and supply issues, Europe's power producers will need to deploy alternative energy sources, including renewables poised to eclipse coal globally, to feed that increase in power demand.

And following the large jump in renewable capacity brought online in 2022, utilities can deploy more low-emissions energy than ever before across Europe's electricity grids.

 

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