Bucking the trend – nuclear industry is hiring thousands

Germany 2025 Energy Costs forecast electricity and heating price trends amid gas volatility, renewables expansion, grid upgrades, and policy subsidies, highlighting impacts on households, industries, efficiency measures, and the Energiewende transition dynamics.

Key Points

Electricity stabilizes, gas-driven heating stays high; renewables, subsidies, and efficiency measures moderate costs.

✅ Power prices stabilize above pre-crisis levels

✅ Gas volatility keeps heating bills elevated

✅ Subsidies and efficiency upgrades offset some costs

As Germany moves into 2025, the country is facing significant shifts in heating and electricity costs. With a variety of factors influencing energy prices, including geopolitical tensions, government policies, and the ongoing transition to renewable energy sources, consumers and businesses alike are bracing for potential changes in their energy bills. In this article, we will explore how heating and electricity costs are expected to evolve in Germany in the coming year and what that means for households and industries.

Energy Price Trends in Germany

In recent years, energy prices in Germany have experienced notable fluctuations, particularly due to the aftermath of the global energy crisis, which was exacerbated by the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This geopolitical shift disrupted gas supplies, which in turn affected electricity prices and strained local utilities across the country. Although the German government introduced measures to mitigate some of the price increases, many households have still felt the strain of higher energy costs.

For 2024, experts predict that electricity prices will likely stabilize but remain higher than pre-crisis levels. While electricity prices nearly doubled in 2022, they have gradually started to decline, and the market has adjusted to the new realities of energy supply and demand. Despite this, the cost of electricity is expected to stay elevated as Germany continues to phase out coal and nuclear energy while ramping up the use of renewable sources, which often require significant infrastructure investments.

Heating Costs: A Mixed Outlook

Heating costs in Germany are heavily influenced by natural gas prices, which have been volatile since the onset of the energy crisis. Gas prices, although lower than the peak levels seen in 2022, are still considerably higher than in the years before. This means that households relying on gas heating can expect to pay more for warmth in 2024 compared to previous years.

The government has implemented measures to cushion the impact of these increased costs, such as subsidies for vulnerable households and efforts to support energy efficiency upgrades. Despite these efforts, consumers will still feel the pinch, particularly in homes that use older, less efficient heating systems. The transition to more sustainable heating solutions, such as heat pumps, remains a key goal for the German government. However, the upfront cost of such systems can be a barrier for many households.

The Role of Renewable Energy and the Green Transition

Germany has set ambitious goals for its energy transition, known as the "Energiewende," which aims to reduce reliance on fossil fuels and increase the share of renewable energy sources in the national grid. In 2024, Germany is expected to see further increases in renewable energy generation, particularly from wind and solar power. While this transition is essential for reducing carbon emissions and improving long-term energy security, the shift comes with its own challenges already documented in EU electricity market trends reports.

One of the main factors influencing electricity costs in the short term is the intermittency of renewable energy sources. Wind and solar power are not always available when demand peaks, requiring backup power generation from fossil fuels or stored energy. Additionally, the infrastructure needed to accommodate a higher share of renewables, including grid upgrades and energy storage solutions, is costly and will likely contribute to rising electricity prices in the near term.

On a positive note, Germany's growing investment in renewable energy is expected to make the country less reliant on imported fossil fuels, particularly natural gas, which has been a major source of price volatility. Over time, as the share of renewables in the energy mix grows, the energy system should become more stable and less susceptible to geopolitical shocks, which could lead to more predictable and potentially lower energy costs in the long run.

Government Interventions and Subsidies

To help ease the burden on consumers, the German government has continued to implement various measures to support households and businesses. One of the key programs is the reduction in VAT (Value Added Tax) on electricity, which has been extended in some regions. This measure is designed to make electricity more affordable for all households, particularly those on fixed incomes facing EU energy inflation pressures that have hit the poorest hardest.

Moreover, the government has been providing financial incentives for households and businesses to invest in energy-efficient technologies, such as insulation and energy-saving heating systems, complementing the earlier 200 billion euro energy shield announced to buffer surging prices. These incentives are intended to reduce overall energy consumption, which could offset some of the rising costs.

The outlook for heating and electricity costs in Germany for 2024 is mixed, even as energy demand hit a historic low amid economic stagnation. While some relief from the extreme price spikes of 2022 may be felt, energy costs will still be higher than they were in previous years. Households relying on gas heating will likely see continued elevated costs, although those who invest in energy-efficient solutions or renewable heating technologies may be able to offset some of the increases. Similarly, electricity prices are expected to stabilize but remain high due to the country’s ongoing transition to renewable energy sources.

While the green transition is crucial for long-term sustainability, consumers must be prepared for potentially higher energy costs in the short term. Government subsidies and incentives will help alleviate some of the financial pressure, but households should consider strategies to reduce energy consumption, such as investing in more efficient heating systems or adopting renewable energy solutions like solar panels.

As Germany navigates these changes, the country’s energy future will undoubtedly be shaped by a delicate balance between environmental goals and the economic realities of transitioning to a greener energy system.

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Hydro One CEO Pay Cap sets executive compensation at $1.5 million under Ontario's provincial directive, linking incentives to transmission and distribution cost reductions, governance improvements, and board pay limits at the electricity utility.

Key Points

The Hydro One CEO Pay Cap limits pay to $1.5M, linking incentives to cost reductions and defined targets.

✅ Base salary set at $500,000 per year.

✅ Incentives capped at $1,000,000, tied to cost cuts.

✅ Board pay capped: chair $120,000; members $80,000.

Hydro One has agreed to cap the annual compensation of its chief executive at $1.5 million, the provincial utility said Friday, acquiescing to the demands of the Progressive Conservative government.

The CEO's base salary will be set at $500,000 per year, while short-term and long-term incentives are limited to $1 million. Performance targets under the pay plan will include the CEO's contributions to reductions in transmission and distribution costs, even as Hydro One has pursued a bill redesign to clarify charges for customers.

The framework represents a notable political victory for Premier Doug Ford, who vowed to fire Hydro One's CEO and board during the campaign and promised to reduce the annual earnings of Hydro One's board members.

In February, the province issued a directive to the board, ordering it to pay the utility's CEO no more than the $1.5 million figure it has now agreed to, as part of a broader push to lower electricity rates across Ontario.

Hydro One and the government had been at loggerheads over executive compensation, with the company refusing repeated requests to slash the CEO pay below $2,775,000. The board argued it would have difficulty recruiting suitable leaders for anything less, even as customers contend with a recovery rate that could raise hydro bills.

Further, the company agreed to pay the board chair no more than $120,000 annually and board members no more than $80,000 — figures Energy Minister Greg Rickford had outlined in his directive last month, amid calls for cleaning up Ontario's hydro mess from policy commentators.

"Hydro One's compliance with this directive allows us to move forward as a province. It sets the company on the right course for the future, proving that it can operate as a top-class electricity utility while reining in executive compensation and increasing public transparency," Rickford said in a statement issued Friday morning.

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China Industrial Power Demand 2020 highlights COVID-19 disruption to electricity consumption as factory output stalls; IHS Markit estimates losses equal to Chile's usage, impacting thermal coal, LNG, and Hubei's industrial load.

Key Points

An analysis of COVID-19's hit to China's electricity use, cutting industry demand and fuel needs for coal and LNG.

✅ 73 billion kWh loss equals Chile's annual power use

✅ Cuts translate to 30m tonnes coal or 9m tonnes LNG

✅ Hubei peak load 21 percent below plan amid shutdowns

China’s industrial power demand in 2020 may decline by as much as 73 billion kilowatt hours (kWh), according to IHS Markit, as the outbreak of the coronavirus has curtailed factory output and prevented some workers from returning to their jobs.

FILE PHOTO: Smoke is seen from a cooling tower of a China Energy ultra-low emission coal-fired power plant during a media tour, in Sanhe, Hebei province, China July 18, 2019. REUTERS/Shivani Singh
The cut represents about 1.5% of industrial power consumption in China. But, as the country is the world’s biggest electricity consumer and analyses of China's electricity appetite routinely underscore its scale, the loss is equal to the power used in the whole of Chile and it illustrates the scope of the disruption caused by the outbreak.

The reduction is the energy equivalent of about 30 million tonnes of thermal coal, at a time when China aims to reduce coal power production, or about 9 million tonnes of liquefied natural gas (LNG), IHS said. The coal figure is more than China’s average monthly imports last year while the LNG figure is a little more than one month of imports, based on customs data.

China has tried to curtail the spread of the coronavirus that has killed more than 1,400 and infected over 60,000 by extending the Lunar New Year holiday for an extra week and encouraging people to work from home, measures that contributed to a global dip in electricity demand as well.

Last year, industrial users consumed 4.85 trillion kWh electricity, accounting for 67% of the country’s total, even as India's electricity demand showed sharp declines in the region.

Xizhou Zhou, the global head of power and Renewables at IHS Markit, said that in a severe case where the epidemic goes on past March, China’s economic growth will be only 4.2% during 2020, down from an initial forecast of 5.8%, while power consumption will climb by only 3.1%, down from 4.1% initially, even as power cuts and blackouts raise concerns.

“The main uncertainty is still how fast the virus will be brought under control,” said Zhou, adding that the impact on the power sector will be relatively modest from a full-year picture in 2020, even though China's electric power woes are already clouding solar markets.

In Hubei province, the epicenter of the virus outbreak, the peak power load at the end of January was 21% less than planned, mirroring how Japan's power demand was hit during the outbreak, data from Wood Mackenzie showed.

Industrial operating rates point to a firm reduction in power consumption in China.

Utilization rates at plastic processors are between 30% and 60% and the low levels are expected to last for another two week, according to ICIS China.

Weaving machines at textile plants are operating at below 10% of capacity, the lowest in five years, ICIS data showed. China is the world’s biggest textile and garment exporter.

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Montreal Power Outage linked to Hydro-Que9bec infrastructure after an underground explosion and manhole fire in Rosemont–La Petite–Patrie, disrupting the STM Blue Line and forcing strategic, cold-weather grid restoration on Be9langer Street.

Key Points

Outage from an underground blast and manhole fire disrupted STM service; Hydro-Que9bec restored the grid in cold weather.

✅ Peak impact: 41,000 customers; 10,981 still without power by 7:00 p.m.

✅ STM Blue Line restored after afternoon shutdown; Be9langer Street reopened.

✅ Hydro-Que9bec pacing restoration to avoid grid overload in cold weather.

Hydro-Québec says a power outage affecting Montreal is connected to an underground explosion and a fire in a manhole in Rosemont—La Petite–Patrie. 

The fire started in underground pipes belonging to Hydro-Québec on Bélanger Street between Boyer and Saint-André streets, according to Montreal firefighters, who arrived on the scene at 12:18 p.m.

The electricity had to be cut so that firefighters could get into the manhole where the equipment was located.

At the peak of the shutdown, nearly 41,000 customers were without power across Montreal.  As of 7:00 p.m., 10,981 clients still had no power.

In similar storms, Toronto power outages have persisted for hundreds, underscoring restoration challenges.

Hydro-Québec spokesperson Louis-Olivier Batty said the utility is being strategic about how it restores power across the grid. 

Because of the cold, and patterns seen during freezing rain outages, it anticipates that people will crank up the heat as soon as they get their electricity back, and that could trigger an overload somewhere else on the network, Batty said.

The Metro's Blue line was down much of the afternoon, but the STM announced the line was back up and running just after 4:30 p.m.

Bélanger Street was blocked to traffic much of the afternoon, however, it has now been reopened.

Batty said once the smoke clears, Hydro-Québec workers will take a look at the equipment to see what failed. 

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New England Grid Reform Initiative aligns governors with ISO New England to reshape market design, boost grid reliability, accelerate renewable energy and offshore wind, explore carbon pricing and forward clean energy markets, and bolster accountability.

Key Points

Five states aim to reform ISO New England markets, prioritize renewables and reliability, and test carbon pricing.

✅ Governors seek market design aligned with clean energy mandates

✅ ISO-NE accountability and stakeholder engagement prioritized

✅ Explore carbon pricing and forward clean energy market options

Weeks after initiating a broad overhaul of utility regulation within its borders, Connecticut has recruited four New England states, as Maine debates a 145-mile transmission line project to rework the regional grid that is overseen by ISO New England, the independent system operator charged with ensuring a reliable supply of electricity from power plants.

In a written statement Thursday morning, Gov. Ned Lamont said the current structure “has actively hindered” states’ efforts to phase out polluting power plants in favor of renewable sources like wind turbines and solar panels, while increasing costs “to fix market design failures” in his words. Lamont’s energy policy chief Katie Dykes has emerged as a vocal critic of ISO New England’s structure and priorities, in her role as commissioner of the Connecticut Department of Energy and Environmental Protection.

“When Connecticut opted to deregulate our electricity market, we wanted the benefits of competition — to achieve lower-cost energy, compatible with meeting our clean-energy goals,” Dykes said in a telephone interview Thursday afternoon. “We have a partner [in] ISO New England, to manage this grid and design a market that is not thwarting our clean-energy goals, but achieving them; and not ignoring consumers’ concerns. ... That’s really what we are looking to do — reclaim the benefits of competition and regional cooperation.”

Lamont and his counterparts in Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Vermont and Maine plan to release a “vision document” in their words on Friday through the New England States Committee on Electricity, after New Hampshire rejected a Quebec-Massachusetts transmission proposal that sought to import Canadian hydropower.

The initial documents made no mention of New Hampshire, which likewise obtains electricity through the wholesale markets managed by ISO New England and has seen clashes over the Northern Pass hydropower project in recent years; and whose Seabrook Station is one two nuclear power plants in New England alongside Dominion Energy’s Millstone Power Station in Waterford. Gov. Chris Sununu’s office did not respond immediately to a query on why New Hampshire is not participating.

Connecticut and the four other states outlined a few broad goals that they will hone over the coming months. Those include creating a better market structure and planning process supporting the conversion to renewables; improving grid reliability, with measures such as an emergency fuel stock program considered; and increasing the accountability of ISO New England to the states and by extension their ratepayer households and businesses.

ISO New England spokesperson Matt Kakley indicated the Holyoke, Mass.-based nonprofit will “engage with the states and our stakeholders” on the governors’ proposal, in an email response to a query. He did not elaborate on any immediate opportunities or challenges inherent in the governors’ proposal.

“Maintaining reliable, competitively-priced electricity through the clean energy transition will require broad collaboration,” Kakley stated. “The common vision of the New England governors will play an important role in the discussions currently underway on the future of the grid.”

Renewable revolution
ISO New England launched operations in 1999, running auctions through which power plant operators bid to supply electricity, including against long-term projections for future needs that can only be met through the construction or installation of new generation capacity.

ISO New England falls under the jurisdiction of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission rather than the states whose electricity supplies it is tasked with ensuring. That has led to pointed criticism from Dykes and Connecticut legislators that ISO New England is out of touch with the state’s push to switch to renewable sources of electricity.

Entering October, ISO New England published an updated outlook that revealed 60 percent of proposed power generators in the region’s future “queue” are wind farms, primarily offshore installations like the proposed Park City Wind project of Avangrid and Revolution Wind from Eversource. But Dykes recently criticized as unnecessary an NTE Energy plant approved already by ISO New England for eastern Connecticut, which will be fueled by natural gas if all other regulatory approvals are granted.

The six New England states participate in the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative that caps carbon emissions by individual power plants, while allowing them to purchase unused allowances from each other with that revenue funneled to the states to support renewable energy and conservation programs. FERC is now considering the concept of carbon pricing, which would levy a tax on power plants based on their emissions, and it also faces pressure to act on aggregated DERs from lawmakers.

ISO New England is investigating the concepts of net carbon pricing and a “forward clean energy market” that would borrow elements of the existing forward capacity market, but designed to meet individual state objectives for the percentage of renewable power they want generated while ensuring adequate electricity is in place when weather does not cooperate.

The Connecticut Public Utilities Regulatory Authority is collecting on its own initiative industry input on modernization proposals, as New York regulators open a formal review of retail energy markets for comparison, that would add up to hundreds of millions of dollars, including utility-scale batteries to store power generated by offshore wind farms and solar arrays; and “smart” meters in homes and businesses to help electricity customers better manage their power use.

The New England Power Pool serves as a central forum for plant operators, commercial users and others like the Connecticut Office of Consumer Counsel, amid Massachusetts solar demand charge debates that affect distributed generation policy, with NEPOOL’s chair stating Thursday morning the group was still reviewing the governors’ announcement.

“NEPOOL has been engaged this year in meetings ... exploring the transition to a future grid in New England and potential pathways forward to support that transition,” stated Nancy Chafetz, chair of NEPOOL, in an email.

Connecticut’s issues with ISO New England boiled over this summer on the heels of a power-purchase agreement between Millstone owner Dominion and transmission grid operators Eversource and United Illuminating, which contributed to a sharp increase in customer bills.

A few weeks ago, Lamont signed into law a “Take Back the Grid” act that allows the Connecticut Public Utilities Regulatory Authority to factor in Eversource’s and Avangrid subsidiary United Illuminating’s past performance in maintaining electric reliability, in addition to any future needs for revenue based on needed upgrades. The law included an element for Connecticut to initiate a study of ISO New England’s role.

Eversource and Avangrid have voiced support for the switch to “performance-based” regulation in Connecticut. Eversource spokesperson Mitch Gross on Thursday cited the company’s view that any changes to the operation of New England’s wholesale power markets should occur within the existing ISO New England structure.

“We also recommend any examination of potential alternatives includes a thorough evaluation that ensures unfair costs would not be imposed on customers,” Gross stated in an email.

In a statement forwarded by Avangrid spokesperson Ed Crowder, the United Illuminating parent indicated it intends to have “a voice in this process” with the goal of continued grid reliability amid increased adoption of clean energy sources.

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Amur-Heihe ETL Power Supply Tripling will expand Russia-China electricity exports, extending 750 MW DC full-load hours to stabilize northeast China grids amid coal shortages, peak demand spikes, and cross-border energy security concerns.

Key Points

Russia will triple electricity via Amur-Heihe ETL, boosting 750 MW DC operations to relieve shortages in northeast China.

✅ 500 kV converter station increases full-load hours from 5 to 16

✅ Supports Heilongjiang, Liaoning, and Jilin grids amid coal shortfall

✅ Cross-border 750 MW DC link enhances reliability, peak demand coverage

Russia will triple electricity supplies via the Amur-Heihe electric transmission line (ETL) starting October 1, China Central Television has reported, a move seen within broader shifts in China's electricity sector by observers.

"Starting October 1, the overhead convertor substation of 500 kW (750 MW DC) will increase its daily time of operation with full loading from 5 to 16 hours per day," the TV channel said.

"This measure will make it possible to dramatically ease the situation with the electricity supply," the report said. Electricity from this converting station is used in three northeastern provinces of China - Heilongjiang, Liaoning and Jilin, while regional markets are strained as India rations coal supplies amid surging demand today. In 29 years, Russia supplied over 30 bln kilowatt hours of electricity, according to the channel.

The Amur-Heihe overhead transnational power line was constructed for increasing electricity exports to China, where projections see electricity to meet 60% of energy use by 2060 according to Shell. It was commissioned in 2012. Its maximum capacity is 750 MW.

China’s Jiemian News reported on September 27 that, amid nationwide power cuts affecting grids, 20 regions were limited in electricity supplies to a various extent due to the ongoing coal deficit. In particular, in China’s northeastern provinces, restrictions on power consumption were imposed not only on industrial enterprises, but also on households, as well as on office premises, raising concerns for U.S. solar supply chains among downstream manufacturers.

Later, China’s financial media Zhongxin Jingwei noted that the coal deficit had been triggered by price hikes brought on by tightened national environmental standards and efforts to reduce coal power production across the country. Reduced coal imports amid disruptions in the work of foreign suppliers due to the coronavirus pandemic was an additional reason, and earlier power demand drops as factories shuttered compounded imbalances.
 

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