Rural residents worry about impact of turbines

By Santa Fe New Mexican


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Petite, gray-haired Sally Maestas remembers a time when this tiny rural village 50 miles east of Santa Fe along Interstate 25 didn't have electricity. "We used kerosene lanterns when I was growing up," said Maestas, 79.

She witnessed the coming of electric lines powered by coal. Now, on the mesa overlooking Bernal, a Chicago-based company wants to put up dozens of wind turbines, each more than 30 stories high from base to blade tip. The power will be shipped six miles away to a power line supplying cities across the West.

"The energy could be OK," Maestas said, "but I guess it's not (coming) here."

More turbines are in windy New Mexico's future, making many renewable energy advocates cheer. They note wind energy is far cleaner and almost as cheap as electricity from coal-fired power plants. Wind energy companies tout the revenue and jobs generated for cash-strapped rural counties.

But a battle is brewing over where wind energy facilities should be built in New Mexico, and the first battleground is in rural villages.

Retired plasterer Keely Meagan lives a few miles from Maestas on top of the mesa. If the wind turbines are placed there, she'll be able to see most of them from the solar-powered home she built. It's not their towering size that worries Meagan so much as the potential for other negative impacts if the turbines aren't sited properly. She's concerned New Mexico is joining a nationwide rush into wind energy without making sure communities are protected and without questioning whether large-scale wind farms are the best option for the future.

Until 1999, the only wind turbines in New Mexico were windmills pumping up water on isolated ranches. Now there are four major wind farms — located in the southeastern part of the state — with the capacity to power thousands of homes when the wind blows.

"Wind power is a clean, inexhaustible domestic resource," said Michael McDiarmid, wind program manager for the New Mexico Energy Minerals and Natural Resources Department. "I think it's important for our energy future to have more wind energy."

Wind energy's rise in the nation has been meteoric, though it is still a tiny slice of the nation's overall energy supply. Last year, more than a third of the new power added to the electric grid was from wind energy, according to the American Wind Energy Association. Currently, about 5 million U.S. homes are powered in part by wind.

The Coalition for Clean Affordable Energy says wind is one of the cheapest renewable energy sources currently available and the "most likely candidate at present for large, green-power programs in New Mexico."

Besides the wind farm proposed by Chicago-based Invenergy in San Miguel County, one is proposed for the broad sage plateau west of Taos. Other wind energy facilities are planned on more than 530,000 acres of state trust lands and on private land in southeastern New Mexico.

The state ranks 12th in the U.S. in potential wind energy capacity, with 49,700 megawatts possible. Under state regulations, utility companies in New Mexico must produce 20 percent of total energy needs from renewable resources by 2020, at least 20 percent of it from wind.

Wind power may be clean, but a big factor attracting major energy companies and investors is the chance to make a profit. Tax incentives and the increasingly competitive wholesale price of wind compared to coal or natural gas makes wind facilities worth building, McDiarmid said.

All that revenue might be nice for companies, but electricity-rate payers in low-income communities such as Bernal and villages in El Valle on the mesa's west side wonder what's in it for them when a wind power company such as Invenergy comes knocking at the door. "This feels like a big company coming into a small community to make money. We get all of the ramifications and none of the benefits," said Gloria Gonzales, a community organizer who lives at the base of the mesa near Ribera.

A giant wind turbine turns gracefully on Argonne Mesa, southwest of Santa Rosa in Guadalupe County, creating a steady swoosh as each of its three blades pass the tower. A row of turbines stretches along the mesa top for miles, glowing white in the sun.

In the wind farm's operations facility at the base of the mesa, maintenance technician Russ Sanford said he likes his job. "There are great opportunities, good pay, and it's steady work," he said.

And it lets him stay in Santa Rosa, where he's lived most of his life.

Sanford, a former electrician, trained through Mitsubishi to work at the Argonne Mesa facility. Most of the eight other men he works with are from nearby towns.

The lure of good paying jobs for local people in job-short rural towns is an attraction that wind energy companies promote.

Cash for county coffers is another.

Andy Madrid, Guadalupe County's manager, said the county will receive $4.3 million over a 30-year period from the Argonne Mesa Wind Facility's first phase, while the local school district will make another $1.9 million in that time. A new phase now under construction will mean more revenue.

Madrid said Santa Rosa doubled its gross-receipts-tax revenue in a year and a half during the wind facility's construction. The money was used to upgrade buildings and leverage matching funds for new buildings. "It has a very big impact," Madrid said.

In San Miguel County, Oliver Perea, president of the San Miguel del Bado Land Grant Association, whose members own land around El Valle, said if the Invenergy wind project really benefited the residents, he wouldn't oppose it. "But right now, there are more cons than pros," he said.

Debates are raging within environmental circles about what is really "green" energy. Those who point out potential problems with wind power facilities are slammed as NIMBYs (people who say Not In My Back Yard). "We are in the position where the 'burden of proof' is upon us in an area and time when everyone who uses the word green (and wind) is good," said Pamela Rosenburg, a resident of an off-grid community in Taos County that opposes a proposed nearby wind energy farm.

Meagan, the plasterer, once visited a wind farm in Kansas and found it graceful and quiet. "I'm such a supporter of renewable energy that I never thought there could be anything wrong with it," she said.

But when a slender tower to measure wind speed was installed near her property two years ago and she found out about the Invenergy project, she and other neighbors in the valley began researching large-scale wind farms. What they found out disturbed them: Noise, flashing lights at night, impacts on wildlife and dramatically changed landscapes are all issues other people living near wind farms have dealt with, and scientists are trying to evaluate.

The wind energy industry says many of those concerns date to older wind technology and new turbines create few problems. Mark Jacobson, Invenergy's business development director, said the company has faced opposition over the same issues in many places where the company proposed wind farms, but in general, residents grew to see the benefits.

Jim Cummings, founder of the Santa Fe-based Acoustic Ecology Institute, said wind proponents "slip into WARYDU (We Are Right; You Don't Understand) rhetoric. If we are to forge a reliable energy future that is respectful of both the environment and the rights of neighbors, we'll need to move past knee-jerk reactions on both sides," he said.

In a 2006 report on the benefits of wind to rural communities, Invenergy said three things are needed for siting wind turbines: willing landowners, a steady wind at 264 feet above ground and an available transmission line.

What's not required in New Mexico is approval from any state agency if the project is on private land — meaning little oversight of wind farms takes place.

The state's Public Regulation Commission only gets involved if a wind farm is larger than 300 megawatts, and to date, none have been that large. On state trust land, the State Land Office makes prospective wind farm companies go through an application process and meet county ordinances.

In New Mexico and most states, it's up to the counties, and few have ordinances geared specifically to wind farms. San Miguel County approved a wind farm ordinance in 2003, probably the state's first. Invenergy's project is the test case. "This one could be a template," said the county's planning director, Alex Tafoya. "Or we might find out it isn't worth a darn."

Hugh Ley, a former San Miguel County commissioner, said it is critical for counties to have specific ordinances for wind energy facilities. "Otherwise they will be making arbitrary and capricious decisions based on which way the wind is blowing," he said.

Last year, the National Academies, an interdisciplinary group of scientists who advise the federal government, examined wind farm impacts in the mid-Atlantic states and concluded that governments need better guidelines for evaluating wind projects and advising developers.

Agencies and counties are trying to catch up.

The New Mexico Department of Game and Fish and the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service are both revising their recommendations for wind turbine placement based on new information about the impacts on wildlife.

Torrance County recently adopted a wind ordinance, and Union County has one in the works. But most counties handle applications for wind farms under existing land-use ordinances.

Without a more critical look at placement, some worry about what will be lost.

"Renewable energy is not free energy," said Bill Dolson, a pilot, computer engineer and landscape artist in El Valle. "All energy has a cost. In the case of wind energy, that cost is the destruction of the rural landscape on a national level if measures are not put into place to regulate the placement of wind facilities."

Residents of communities in El Valle think a wider conversation about wind energy is needed around the state.

They formed a group and last week hosted a well-attended meeting in Santa Fe to discuss wind energy. They've met with Gov. Bill Richardson and House Speaker Ben Luján, with the help of actor and neighbor Val Kilmer, to talk about the need for better wind-energy regulations.

Some renewable energy advocates say as the state and the nation consider new energy sources, it is a prime time to rethink the entire energy grid. Simply building large-scale wind power systems located far from customers to replace equally remote coal-fired power plants might not be the answer.

"I am not anti-wind, but I have questions about big towers and the industrial wind farm approach," Meagan said. "It is important to do this carefully, thoughtfully and do it right the first time. We may not have a second chance."

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Canadian Solar and Tesla contribute to resilient electricity system for Puerto Rico school

SunCrate Solar Microgrid delivers resilient, plug-and-play renewable power to Puerto Rico schools, combining Canadian Solar PV, Tesla Powerwall battery storage, and Black & Veatch engineering to ensure off-grid continuity during outages and disasters.

 

Key Points

A compact PV-and-battery system for resilient, diesel-free power and microgrid backup at schools and clinics.

✅ Plug-and-play, modular PV, inverter, and battery architecture

✅ Tesla Powerwall storage; Canadian Solar 325 W panels

✅ Scales via daisy-chain for higher loads and microgrids

 

Eleven months since their three-building school was first plunged into darkness by Hurricane Maria, 140 students in Puerto Rico’s picturesque Yabucoa district have reliable power. Resilient electricity service was provided Saturday to the SU Manuel Ortiz school through an innovative scalable, plug-and-play solar system pioneered by SunCrate Energy with Black & Veatch support. Known as a “SunCrate,” the unit is an effective mitigation measure to back up the traditional power supply from the grid. The SunCrate can also provide sustainable power in the face of ongoing system outages and future natural disasters without requiring diesel fuel.

The humanitarian effort to return sustainable electricity to the K-8 school, found along the island’s hard-hit southeastern coast, drew donated equipment and expertise from a collection of North American companies. Additional support for the Yabucoa project came from Tesla, Canadian Solar and Lloyd Electric, reflecting broader efforts to build a solar-powered grid in Puerto Rico after Hurricane Maria.

“We are grateful for this initiative, which will equip this school with the technology needed to become a resilient campus and not dependent on the status of the power grid. This means that if we are hit with future harmful weather events, the school will be able to open more quickly and continue providing services to students,” Puerto Rico Secretary of Education Julia Keleher said.

The SunCrate harnesses a scalable rapid-response design developed by Black & Veatch and manufactured by SunCrate Energy. Electricity will be generated by an array of 325-W CS6U-Poly modules from Canadian Solar. California-based Tesla contributed advanced battery energy storage through various Powerwall units capable of storing excess solar power and delivering it outside peak generation periods, with related experience from a virtual power plant in Texas informing deployment.  Lloyd Electric Co. of Wichita Falls, Texas, partnered to support delivery and installation of the SunCrate.

“As families in the region begin to prepare for the school year, this community is still impacted by the longest U.S. power outage in history,” said Dolf Ivener, a Midwestern entrepreneur who owns King of Trails Construction and SunCrate Energy, which is donating the SunCrate. “SunCrate, with its rapid deployment and use of renewable energy, should give this school peace of mind and hopefully returns a touch of long-overdue normalcy to students and their parents. When it comes to consistent power, SunCrate is on duty.”

The SunCrate is a portable renewable energy system conceived by Ivener and designed and tested by Black & Veatch. Its modular design uses solar PV panels, inverters and batteries to store and provide electric power in support of critical services such as police, fire, schools, clinics and other community level facilities.

A SunCrate can generate 23 to 156 kWh per day, and store 10 kWh to 135 kWh depending on configuration. A SunCrate’s power generation and storage capacity can be easily scaled through daisy-chained configurations to accommodate larger buildings and loads. Leveraging resources from Tesla, Canadian Solar, Lloyd Electric and Lord Electric, the unit in Yabucoa will provide an estimated 52 kWh of storable power without requiring use of costlier diesel-powered generators and cutting greenhouse gas emissions. Its capabilities allow the school to strengthen its function as a designated Community Emergency Response Center in the event of future natural disasters.

“Canadian Solar has a long history of using solar power to support humanitarian efforts aiding victims of social injustice and natural disasters, including previous donations to Puerto Rico after Hurricane Maria,” said Dr. Shawn Qu, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Canadian Solar. “We are pleased to make the difference for these schoolchildren in Yabucoa who have been without reliable power for too long.”

The SunCrate will also substantially lower the school’s ongoing electricity costs by providing a reliable source of renewable energy on site, as falling costs of solar batteries improve project economics overall.

“Through our experience providing engineering services in Puerto Rico for nearly 50 years, including dozens of specialized projects for local government and industrial clients, we see great potential for SunCrate as a source of resilient power for the Commonwealth’s remote schools and communities at large, underscoring the importance of electricity resilience across critical infrastructure,” said Charles Moseley, a Program Director in Black & Veatch’s water business. “We hope that the deployment of the SunCrate in Yabucoa sets a precedent for facility and municipal level migro-grid efforts on the island and beyond.”

SunCrate also has broad potential applications in conflict/post-conflict environments and in rural electrification efforts in the developing world, serving as a resilient source of electricity within hours of its arrival on site and could enable peer-to-peer energy within communities. Of particular benefit, the system’s flexibility cuts fuel costs to a fraction of a generator’s typical consumption when they are used around the clock with maintenance requirements.

 

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Ontario introduces new fixed COVID-19 hydro rate

Ontario Electricity COVID-19 Recovery Rate sets a fixed price of 12.8 cents/kWh, replacing time-of-use billing and aligning costs across off-peak, mid-peak, and on-peak periods per Ontario Energy Board guidance through Oct. 31.

 

Key Points

A flat 12.8 cents/kWh electricity price in Ontario that temporarily replaces time-of-use rates from June 1 to Oct. 31.

✅ Fixed 12.8 cents/kWh, all hours, June 1 to Oct. 31

✅ Higher than off-peak 10.1, lower than mid/on-peak

✅ Based on Ontario Energy Board average cost

 

Ontario residents will now have to pay a fixed electricity price that is higher than the off-peak hydro rate many in the province have been allowed to pay so far due to the pandemic. 

The announcement, which was made in a news release on Saturday, comes after the Ontario government suspended the normal “time-of-use” billing system on March 24 and as electricity rates are about to change across Ontario. 

The government moved all customers onto the lowest winter rate in response to the pandemic as emergency measures meant more people would be at home during the middle of the day when electricity costs are the highest. 

Now, the government has introduced a new “COVID-19 recovery rate” of 12.8 cents per kilowatt hour at all times of the day. The fixed price will be in place from June 1 to Oct. 31. 

The fixed price is higher than the winter off-peak price, which stood at 10.1 per kilowatt hour. However, it is lower than the mid-peak rate of 14.4 per kilowatt hour and the high-peak rate of 20.8 per kilowatt hour, even though typical bills may rise as fixed pricing ends for many households. 

“Since March 24, 2020, we have invested just over $175 million to deliver emergency rate relief to residential, farm and small business electricity consumers by suspending time-of-use electricity pricing,” Greg Rickford, the minister of energy, northern development and mines, said in a news release. 

“This investment was made to protect the people of Ontario from a marked increase in electricity rates as they did their part by staying home to prevent the further spread of the virus.”

Rickford said that the COVID-19 recovery rate is based on the average cost of electricity set by the Ontario Energy Board. 

“This fixed rate will continue to suspend time-of-use prices in a fiscally responsible manner,” he said. "Consumers will have greater flexibility to use electricity when they need it without paying on-peak and mid-peak prices, and some may benefit from ultra-low electricity rates under new time-of-use options."

 

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Some in Tennessee could be without power for weeks after strong storms hit

Middle Tennessee Power Outages disrupt 100,000+ customers as severe thunderstorms, straight-line winds, downed trees, and debris challenge Nashville crews, slow restoration amid COVID-19, and threaten more hail, flash flooding, and damaging gusts.

 

Key Points

Blackouts across Nashville after severe storms and winds, leaving customers without power and facing restoration delays.

✅ Straight-line winds 60-80 mph toppled trees and power lines

✅ 130,000+ customers impacted; some outages may last 1-2 weeks

✅ Restoration slowed by debris, COVID-19 protocols, and new storms

 

Some middle Tennessee residents could be without electricity for up to two weeks after strong thunderstorms swept through the area Sunday, knocking out power for more than 100,000 customers, a scale comparable to Los Angeles outages after a station fire.

"Straight line winds as high as 60-80 miles per hour knocked down trees, power lines and power polls, interrupting power to 130,000 of our 400,000+ customers," Nashville Electric said in a statement Monday. The utility said the outage was one of the largest on record, though Carolina power outages recently left a quarter-million without power as well.

"Restoration times will depend on individual circumstances. In some cases, power could be out for a week or two" as challenges related to coronavirus and the need for utilities adapt to climate change complicated crews' responses and more storms were expected, the statement said. "This is unfortunate timing on the heels of a tornado and as we deal with battling COVID-19."

Metropolitan Nashville and Davidson County Mayor John Cooper also noted that the power outages were especially inconvenient, a challenge similar to Hong Kong families without power during Typhoon Mangkhut, as people were largely staying home to slow the spread of coronavirus. He also pointed out that the storms came on the two month anniversary of the Nashville tornado that left at least two dozen people dead.

"Crews are working diligently to restore power and clear any debris in neighborhoods," Cooper said.

He said that no fatalities were reported in the county but sent condolences to Spring Hill, whose police department reported that firefighter Mitchell Earwood died during the storm due to "a tragic weather-related incident" while at his home and off duty. He had served with the fire department for 10 years.

The Metro Nashville Department of Public Works said it received reports of more than 80 downed trees in Davidson County.

Officials also warn that copper theft can be deadly when electrical infrastructure is damaged after storms.

The National Weather Service Nashville said a 72 mph wind gust was measured at Nashville International Airport — the fifth fastest on record.

The weather service warned that strong storms with winds of up to 75 mph, large hail, record-long lightning bolt potential seen in the U.S., and isolated flash flooding could hit middle Tennessee again Monday afternoon and night.

"Treat Severe Thunderstorm Warnings the same way you would Tornado Warnings and review storm safety tips before you JUST TAKE SHELTER," the NWS instructs. "70 mph is 70 mph whether it's spinning around in a circle or blowing in a straight line."

 

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Manitoba's electrical demand could double in next 20 years: report

Manitoba Hydro Integrated Resource Plan outlines electrification-driven demand growth, clean electricity needs, wind generation, energy efficiency, hydropower strengths, and net-zero policy impacts, guiding investments to expand capacity and decarbonize Manitoba's grid.

 

Key Points

Manitoba Hydro IRP forecasting 2.5x demand, clean power needs, and capacity additions via wind and energy efficiency.

✅ Projects electricity demand could more than double within 20 years.

✅ Leverages 97% hydro supply; adds wind generation and efficiency.

✅ Positions for net-zero, electrification, and new capacity by the 2030s.

 

Electrical demand in Manitoba could more than double in the next 20 years, a trend echoed by BC Hydro's call for power in response to electrification, according to a new report from Manitoba Hydro.

On Tuesday, the Crown corporation released its first-ever Integrated Resource Plan (IRP), which not only predicts a significant increase in electrical demand, but also that new sources of energy, and a potential need for new power generation, could be needed in the next decade.

“Right now, what [our customers] are telling us, with the climate change objectives, with federal policy, provincial policies, is they see using electricity much more in the future than they do today,” said president and CEO of Manitoba Hydro Jay Grewal.

“And our current, where we’re at now, our customers have told us through all this consultation and engagement over the last two years, they’re going to want and need more than 2.5 times the electricity than we have in the province today.”

The IRP indicates that the move towards low or no-carbon energy sources will accelerate the need for clean electricity, which will require significant investments, including new turbine investments to expand capacity. Some of the clean energy measures Hydro is looking at for the future include wind generation and energy efficiency.

The report also found that Manitoba is in a good position as it prepares for the future due to its hydroelectric system, which delivers around 97 per cent of the yearly electricity. However, the province’s existing supply is limited, and vulnerable to Western Canada drought impacts on hydropower, so other electrical energy sources will be needed.

“Something Manitobans may not realize is, we are in such a privileged province, because 97 per cent of the electricity produced in Manitoba today is clean energy and net zero,” Grewal said.

Manitoba also supplies power to neighbouring utilities, with a SaskPower purchase agreement to buy more electricity under an expanded deal.

The IRP is the result of a two-year development process that involved multiple rounds of engagement with customers and other interested parties. The IRP is not a development plan, but it arrives as Hydro warns it can't service new energy-intensive customers under current capacity, and it outlines how Manitoba Hydro will monitor, prepare and respond to the changes in the energy landscape.

“We spoke with over 15,000 of our customers, whether they’re residential, commercial, industrial, industry associations, regulators, government – across the board, we talked with our customers,” said Grewal.

“And what we did was through this work, we understood what our customers are anticipating using electricity for going forward.

 

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New England Is Burning the Most Oil for Electricity Since 2018

New England oil-fired generation surges as ISO New England manages a cold snap, dual-fuel switching, and a natural gas price spike, highlighting winter reliability challenges, LNG and pipeline limits, and rising CO2 emissions.

 

Key Points

Reliance on oil-burning power plants during winter demand spikes when natural gas is costly or constrained.

✅ Driven by dual-fuel switching amid high natural gas prices

✅ ISO-NE winter reliability rules encourage oil stockpiles

✅ Raises CO2 emissions despite coal retirements and renewables growth

 

New England is relying on oil-fired generators for the most electricity since 2018 as a frigid blast boosts demand for power and natural gas prices soar across markets. 

Oil generators were producing more than 4,200 megawatts early Thursday, accounting for about a quarter of the grid’s power supply, according to ISO New England. That was the most since Jan. 6, 2018, when oil plants produced as much as 6.4 gigawatts, or 32% of the grid’s output, said Wood Mackenzie analyst Margaret Cashman.  

Oil is typically used only when demand spikes, because of higher costs and emissions concerns. Consumption has been consistently high over the past three weeks as some generators switch from gas, which has surged in price in recent months. New England generators are producing power from oil at an average rate of almost 1.8 gigawatts so far this month, the highest for January in at least five years. 

Oil’s share declined to 16% Friday morning ahead of an expected snowstorm, which was “a surprise,” Cashman said. 

“It makes me wonder if some of those generators are aiming to reserve their fuel for this weekend,” she said.

During the recent cold snap, more than a tenth of the electricity generated in New England has been produced by power plants that haven’t happened for at least 15 years.

Burning oil for electricity was standard practice throughout the region for decades. It was once our most common fuel for power and as recently as 2000, fully 19% of the six-state region’s electricity came from burning oil, according to ISO-New England, more than any other source except nuclear power at the time.

Since then, however, natural gas has gotten so cheap that most oil-fired plants have been shut or converted to burn gas, to the point that just 1% of New England’s electricity came from oil in 2018, whereas about half our power came from natural gas generation regionally during that period. This is good because natural gas produces less pollution, both particulates and greenhouse gasses, although exactly how much less is a matter of debate.

But as you probably know, there’s a problem: Natural gas is also used for heating, which gets first dibs. Prolonged cold snaps require so much gas to keep us warm, a challenge echoed in Ontario’s electricity system as supply tightens, that there might not be enough for power plants – at least, not at prices they’re willing to pay.

After we came close to rolling brownouts during the polar vortex in the 2017-18 winter because gas-fired power plants cut back so much, ISO-NE, which has oversight of the power grid, established “winter reliability” rules. The most important change was to pay power plants to become dual-fuel, meaning they can switch quickly between natural gas and oil, and to stockpile oil for winter cold snaps.

We’re seeing that practice in action right now, as many dual-fuel plants have switched away from gas to oil, just as was intended.

That switch is part of the reason EPA says the region’s carbon emissions have gone up in the pandemic, from 22 million tons of CO2 in 2019 to 24 million tons in 2021. That reverses a long trend caused partly by closing of coal plants and partly by growing solar and offshore wind capacity: New England power generation produced 36 million tons of CO2 a decade ago.

So if we admit that a return to oil burning is bad, and it is, what can we do in future winters? There are many possibilities, including tapping more clean imports such as Canadian hydropower to diversify supply.

The most obvious solution is to import more natural gas, especially from fracked fields in New York state and Pennsylvania. But efforts to build pipelines to do that have been shot down a couple of times and seem unlikely to go forward and importing more gas via ocean tanker in the form of liquefied natural gas (LNG) is also an option, but hits limits in terms of port facilities.

Aside from NIMBY concerns, the problem with building pipelines or ports to import more gas is that pipelines and ports are very expensive. Once they’re built they create a financial incentive to keep using natural gas for decades to justify the expense, similar to moves such as Ontario’s new gas plants that lock in generation. That makes it much harder for New England to decarbonize and potentially leaves ratepayers on the hook for a boatload of stranded costs.

 

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Ontario faces growing electricity supply gap, study finds

Ontario Electricity Capacity Gap threatens reliability as IESO forecasts shortfalls from the Pickering shutdown and rapid electrification, requiring new low-emission nuclear generation to meet net-zero targets, maintain baseload, and stabilize the grid.

 

Key Points

Expected 2030 shortfalls from Pickering closure and electrification, requiring new low-emission nuclear to meet net-zero.

✅ IESO projects a 3.6-9.5 GW capacity gap by 2030

✅ Pickering shutdown removes baseload, stressing reliability

✅ New low-emission nuclear needed to meet net-zero targets

 

Ontario faces an electricity supply shortage and reliability risks in the next four to eight years and will not meet net-zero objectives without building new low-emission, nuclear generation starting as soon as possible, according to a report released yesterday by the Power Workers' Union (PWU). The capacity needed to fill the expected supply gap will be equivalent to doubling the province's planned nuclear fleet in eight years.

The planned closure of the Pickering nuclear power plant in 2025 and the increase in demand from electrification of the economy are the drivers behind a capacity gap in 2030 of at least 3.6 GW which could widen to as much as 9.5 GW, Electrification Pathways for Ontario to Reduce Emissions, finds. Ontario's Independent Electricity System Operator (IESO) has since 2013 been forecasting a significant gap in the province's electricity supply due the closure of Pickering, but has been underestimating the impact of electrification, the report says.

In addition, the electrification of buildings, transport and industry sectors that will be needed to achieve goals of net-zero emissions by 2050 that being set by the federal government and civil society will see the province's electricity demand increase by at least 130% over current planning forecasts, and potentially by over 190%. Leveraging electricity, natural gas and hydrogen synergies can reduce supply needs, but 55 GW of new electricity capacity, including new large-scale nuclear plants, will still be needed by 2050 - four times Ontario's current nuclear and hydro assets - the report finds.

These findings underscore the urgent need for a paradigm shift in Ontario's electricity planning and procurement process, the authors say, adding that immediate action is needed both to mitigate the system reliability risks and enable the significant societal benefits needed to pursue net-zero objectives. Planning for procurement to replace Pickering's capacity, or to pursue life extension options, must begin as soon as possible.

"Policymakers around the world realise climate change can't be tackled without nuclear. Ontario's nuclear fleet has delivered emissions reductions for over 50 years," PWU President Jeff Parnell said. "In fact, without building new nuclear units, Ontario will miss its emission reduction targets and carbon emissions from electricity generation will rise dramatically, as explored in why Ontario's power could get dirtier today."

"This report clearly shows that Ontario cannot sustain the low-carbon status of its hydro and nuclear-based electricity system, decarbonise its economy and meet its carbon reduction targets without new nuclear or continued operation at Pickering in the near term. Most disturbing is the fact that we are already well behind and needed to start planning for this capacity yesterday," he said.

The six operating Candu reactors at Ontario Power Generation's Pickering plant have been kept in operation to provide baseload electricity during the refurbishment of units at the Darlington and Bruce plants. Currently, the company plans to shut down Pickering units 1 and 4 in 2024 and units 5 to 8 in 2025, even as Ontario moves to refurbish Pickering B to extend life.

 

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