Germans to profit from British wind boom

Nova Scotia Power Active Demand Control Tariff lets the utility direct Port Hawkesbury Paper load, enabling demand response, efficiency, and industrial electricity rates, while regulators assess impacts on ratepayers, grid reliability, mill viability, and savings.

Key Points

A four-year tariff letting the utility control the mill load for demand response, efficiency, and lower costs.

✅ Utility can increase or reduce daily consumption at the mill

✅ Projected savings of $10M annually for other ratepayers to 2023

✅ Regulators reviewing cost allocation, monitoring, and viability

Nova Scotia Power is scheduled to appear before government regulators Tuesday morning seeking approval for a unique discount rate for its largest customer.

Under the four-year plan, Nova Scotia Power would control the supply of electricity to Port Hawkesbury Paper, a move referenced in a grid operations report that urges changes, with the right to direct the company to increase or reduce daily consumption throughout the year.

The rate proposal is supported by the mill, which says it needs to lower its power bill to keep its operation viable.

The rate went into effect on Jan. 1 on a temporary basis, pending the outcome of a hearing this week before the Nova Scotia Utility and Review Board, amid broader calls for an independent body to lead electricity planning.

The mill accounts for 10 per cent of the provincial electricity load, even as a neighbouring utility pursues more Quebec power for the region, producing glossy paper used in magazines and catalogs.

Nova Scotia Power says controlling how much electricity the mill uses — and when — will allow it to operate the system much more efficiently, as it expands biomass generation initiatives, saving other customers $10 million a year until the rate expires in 2023.

Ceding control 'not an easy decision'
In its opening statement that was filed in advance, Port Hawkesbury Paper said ceding the control of its electrical supply to Nova Scotia Power was "not an easy decision" to make, but the company is confident the arrangement will work.

In September 2019, Nova Scotia Power and the mill jointly applied for an "extra large active demand control tariff," which would provide electricity to the mill for about $61 per megawatt hour, well below the full cost of generating the electricity.

The utility said "fully allocating costs" would result in "prices in excess of $80/MWh ... and [would] not [be] financially viable for the mill."

In its statement, Port Hawkesbury Paper said since the initial filing "there have been greater near term declines in market demand and pricing for PHP's product than was forecast at that time, continuing to put pressure on our business and further highlighting the need to maintain the balance provided for in the new tariff."

Consumer advocate sees 'advantage,' but will challenge
Bill Mahody represents Nova Scotia Power's 400,000 residential customers before the review board. He wants proof the mill will pay enough toward the cost of generating the electricity it uses, amid concerns over biomass use in the province today.

"We filed evidence, as have others involved in the proceeding, that would call into question whether or not the rate design is capturing all of those costs and that will be a significant issue before the board," Mahody said.

Still, he sees value in the proposal.

The proposed new rate went into effect on Jan. 1 on a temporary basis. (The Canadian Press)
"This proposed rate gives Nova Scotia Power the ability to control that sizable Port Hawkesbury Paper load to the advantage of other ratepayers, as the province pursues more wind and solar projects, because Nova Scotia Power would be reducing the costs that other ratepayers are going to face," he said.

Mahody is also calling for a mechanism to monitor whether the mill's position actually improves to the point where it could pay higher rates.

"An awful lot can change during a four-year period, with new tidal power projects underway, and I think the board ought to have the ability to check in on this and make sure that their preferential rate continues to be justified," he said.

Major employer
Port Hawkesbury Paper, owned by Stern Partners in Vancouver, has received discounted power rates since it bought the idled mill in 2012. But the "load retention tariff" as it was called, expired at the end of 2019.

Regulators have accepted Nova Scotia Power's argument that it would cost other customers more if the mill ceased to operate.

The mill said it spends between $235 million and $265 million annually, employing 330 people directly and supporting 500 other jobs indirectly.

The Nova Scotia government pledged $124 million in financial assistance as part of the reopening in 2012.

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European Electricity Market Trends 2020 highlight decarbonisation, rising renewables, EV adoption, shifting energy mix, COVID-19 impacts, fuel switching, hydro, wind and solar growth, gas price dynamics, and wholesale electricity price increases.

Key Points

EU power in 2020 saw lower emissions, more renewables, EV growth, demand shifts, and higher wholesale prices.

✅ Power sector CO2 down 14% on higher renewables, lower coal

✅ Renewables 39% vs fossil 36%; hydro, wind, solar expanded

✅ EV share hit 17%; wholesale prices rose with gas, ETS costs

According to the Market Observatory for Energy DG Energy report, the COVID-19 pandemic and favorable weather conditions are the two key drivers of the trends experienced within the European electricity market in 2020. However, the two drivers were exceptional or seasonal.

The key trends within Europe’s electricity market include:

1. Decrease in power sector’s carbon emissions

As a result of the increase in renewables generation and decrease in fossil-fueled power generation in 2020, the power sector was able to reduce its carbon footprint by 14% in 2020. The decrease in the sector’s carbon footprint in 2020 is similar to trends witnessed in 2019 when fuel switching was the main factor behind the decarbonisation trend.

However, most of the drivers in 2020 were exceptional or seasonal (the pandemic, warm winter, high
hydro generation). However, the opposite is expected in 2021, with the first months of 2021 having relatively cold weather, lower wind speeds and higher gas prices, with stunted hydro and nuclear output also cited, developments which suggest that the carbon emissions and intensity of the power sector could rise.

The European Union is targeting to completely decarbonise its power sector by 2050 through the introduction of supporting policies such as the EU Emissions Trading Scheme, the Renewable Energy Directive and legislation addressing air pollutant emissions from industrial installations, with expectations that low-emissions sources will cover most demand growth in the coming years.

According to the European Environment Agency, Europe halved its power sector’s carbon emissions in 2019 from 1990 levels.

2. Changes in energy consumption

EU consumption of electricity fell by -4% as majority of industries did not operate at full level during the first half of 2020. Although majority of EU residents stayed at home, meaning an increase in residential energy use, rising demand by households could not reverse falls in other sectors of the economy.

However, as countries renewed COVID-19 restrictions, energy consumption during the 4th quarter was closer to the “normal levels” than in the first three quarters of 2020. 

The increase in energy consumption in the fourth quarter of 2020 was also partly due to colder temperatures compared to 2019 and signs of surging electricity demand in global markets.

3. Increase in demand for EVs

As the electrification of the transport system intensifies, the demand for electric vehicles increased in 2020 with almost half a million new registrations in the fourth quarter of 2020. This was the highest figure on record and translated into an unprecedented 17% market share, more than two times higher than in China and six times higher than in the United States.

However, the European Environment Agency (EEA)argues that the EV registrations were lower in 2020 compared to 2019. EEA states that in 2019, electric car registrations were close to 550 000 units, having reached 300 000 units in 2018.

4. Changes in the region’s energy mix and increase in renewable energy generation

The structure of the region’s energy mix changed in 2020, according to the report.

Owing to favorable weather conditions, hydro energy generation was very high and Europe was able to expand its portfolio of renewable energy generation such that renewables (39%) exceeded the share of fossil fuels (36%) for the first time ever in the EU energy mix.

Rising renewable generation was greatly assisted by 29 GW of wind and solar capacity additions in 2020, which is comparable to 2019 levels. Despite disrupting the supply chains of wind and solar resulting in project delays, the pandemic did not significantly slow down renewables’ expansion.

In fact, coal and lignite energy generation fell by 22% (-87 TWh) and nuclear output dropped by 11% (-79 TWh). On the other hand, gas energy generation was not significantly impacted owing to favorable prices which intensified coal-to-gas and lignite-to-gas switching, even as renewables crowd out gas in parts of the market.

5. Retirement of coal energy generation intensify

 As the outlook for emission-intensive technologies worsens and carbon prices rise, more and more early coal retirements have been announced. Utilities in Europe are expected to continue transitioning from coal energy generation under efforts to meet stringent carbon emissions reduction targets and as they try to prepare themselves for future business models that they anticipate to be entirely low-carbon reliant.

6. Increase in wholesale electricity prices

In recent months, more expensive emission allowances, along with rising gas prices, have driven up wholesale electricity prices on many European markets to levels last seen at the beginning of 2019. The effect was most pronounced in countries that are dependent on coal and lignite. The wholesale electricity prices dynamic is expected to filter through to retail prices.

The rapid sales growth in the EVs sector was accompanied by expanding charging infrastructure. The number of high-power charging points per 100 km of highways rose from 12 to 20 in 2020.

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Saudi Arabia Wind Power Market set to lead the Middle East, driven by Vision 2030 renewables goals, REPDO tenders, and PIF backing, adding 6.2GW wind capacity by 2028 alongside solar PV diversification.

Key Points

It is the emerging national segment leading Middle East wind growth, targeting 6.2GW by 2028 under Vision 2030 policies.

✅ Adds 6.2GW, 46% of regional wind capacity by 2028

✅ REPDO tenders and PIF funding underpin pipeline

✅ Targets: 16GW wind, 40GW solar under Vision 2030

Saudi Arabia will become a regional heavyweight in the Middle East's wind power market adding over 6GW in the next 10 years, according to new research by Wood Mackenzie Power & Renewables.

The report – 'Middle East Wind Power Market Outlook, 2019-2028’ – said developers will build 6.2GW of wind capacity in the country or 46% of the region’s total wind capacity additions between 2019 and 2028.

Wood Mackenzie Power & Renewables senior analyst Sohaib Malik said: “The integration of renewables in Vision 2030’s objectives underlines strong political commitment within Saudi Arabia.

“The level of Saudi ambition for wind and solar PV varies significantly, despite the cost parity between both technologies during the first round of tenders in 2018.”

Saudi Arabia has set a 16GW target for wind by 2030 and 40GW for solar, plans to solicit 60 GW of clean energy over the next decade, Wood Mackenzie added.

“Moving forward, the Renewable Energy Project Development Office will award 850MW of wind capacity in 2019, which is expected to be commissioned in 2021-2022, and increase the local content requirement in future tendering rounds,” Malik said.

However, Saudi Arabia will fall short of its current 2030 renewables target, despite growth projections and regional leadership, the report said.

Some 70% of the renewables capacity target is to be supported by the Public Investment Fund (PIF), the Saudi sovereign wealth fund, while the remaining capacity is to be awarded through REPDO.

“A central concern is the PIF’s lack of track record in the renewables sector and its limited in-house sectoral expertise,” said Malik

“REPDO, on the other hand, completed two renewables request for proposals after pre-developing the sites,” he said.

PIF is estimated to have $230bn of assets – targeted to reach $2 trillion under Vision 2030 – driven by investments in a variety of sectors ranging from electric vehicles to public infrastructure, Wood Mackenzie said.

“There is little doubt about the fund’s financial muscle, however, its past investment strategy focused on established firms in traditional industries,” Malik added.

“Aspirations to develop a value chain for wind and PV technologies locally is a different ball game and requires the PIF to acquire new capabilities for effective oversight of these ventures,” he said.

The report noted that regional volatility is expected to remain, with strong positive growth, driven by Jordan and Iran in 2018 expected to reverse in 2019, and policy shifts, as in Canada’s scaled-back projections, can influence outcomes.

Post-2020 Wood Mackenzie Power & Renewables sees regional demand returning to steady growth as global renewables set more records elsewhere.

“In 2018, developers added 185MW and 63MW of wind capacity in Jordan and Iran, respectively, compared to 53MW of capacity across the entire region in 2017, following a record year for renewables in 2016,” said Malik.

“The completion of the 89MW Al Fujeij and the 86MW Al Rajef projects in 2018 indicates that Jordan has 375MW of the region’s operational 675MW wind capacity.

“Iran followed with 278MW of installed capacity at the end of 2018. A slowdown in 2019 is expected, as project development activity softens in Iran.

“Additionally, delays in awarding the 400MW Dumat Al Jandal project in Saudi Arabia will limit annual capacity additions to 184MW.”

He added that a maturing project pipeline in the region supports the 2020-2021 outlook, even as wind power grew despite Covid-19 globally.

“Saudi Arabian demand serves as the foundation for regional demand. Regional demand diversification is also occurring, with Lebanon set to add 200-400MW to its existing permitted capacity pipeline of 202MW in 2019,” he said

“These developments pave the way for the addition of 2GW of wind capacity between 2019 and 2021.”

Wood Mackenzie Power & Renewables added that the outlook for solar in the region is “much more positive” than wind.

“Compared to only 6GW of wind power capacity, developers will add 53GW of PV capacity through 2024,” said Malik.

He added: “Solar PV, supported by trends such as China’s rapid PV growth in 2016, has become a natural choice for many countries in the region, which is endowed with world class solar energy resources.

“The increased focus on solar energy is demonstrated by ambitious PV targets across the region.”

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Alberta Rate of Last Resort streamlines electricity regulations to stabilize the default rate, curb price volatility, and protect rural communities, low-income households, and seniors while preserving competition in the province's energy market.

Key Points

Alberta's Rate of Last Resort sets biennial default electricity prices, curbing volatility and protecting customers.

✅ Biennial default rate to limit price spikes

✅ Focus on rural, senior, and low-income customers

✅ Encourages competitive contracts and market stability

The Alberta government is overhauling its electricity regulations as part of a market overhaul aimed at reducing spikes in electricity prices for consumers and businesses. The new rules, set to be introduced this spring, are intended to stabilize the default electricity rate paid by many Albertans.

Background on the Rate of Last Resort

Albertans currently have the option to sign up for competitive contracts with electricity providers. These contracts can sometimes offer lower rates than the default electricity rate, officially known as the Regulated Rate Option (RRO). However, these competitive rates can fluctuate significantly. Currently, those unable to secure these contracts or those who are on the default rate are experiencing rising electricity prices and high levels of price volatility.

To address this, the Alberta government is renaming the default rate as the Rate of Last Resort designation (RoLR) under the new framework. This aims to reduce the sense of security that some consumers might associate with the current name, which the government feels is misleading.

Key Changes Under New Regulations

The new regulations, which include proposed market changes that affect pricing, focus on:

• Price Stabilization: Default electricity rates will be set every two years for each utility provider, providing greater predictability by enabling a consumer price cap and reducing the potential for extreme price swings.
• Rural and Underserved Communities: The changes are intended to particularly benefit rural Albertans and those on the default rate, including low-income individuals and seniors. These groups often lack access to the competitive rates offered by some providers and have been disproportionately affected by recent price increases.
• Promoting Economic Stability: The goal is to lower the cost of utilities for all Albertans, leading to overall lower costs of living and doing business. The government anticipates these changes will create a more attractive environment for investment and job creation.

Opposition Views

Critics argue that limiting the flexibility of prices for the default electricity rate could interfere with market dynamics and stifle market competition among providers. Some worry it could ultimately lead to higher prices in the long term. Others advocate directly subsidizing low-income households rather than introducing broad price controls.

Balancing Affordability and the Market

The Alberta government maintains that the proposed changes will strike a balance between ensuring affordable electricity for vulnerable Albertans and preserving a competitive energy market. Provincial officials emphasize that the new regulations should not deter consumers from seeking out competitive rates if they choose to.

The Path Ahead

The new electricity regulations are part of the Alberta government's broader Affordable Utilities Program, alongside electricity policy changes across the province. The legislation is expected to be introduced and debated in the provincial legislature this spring with the potential of coming into effect later in the year. Experts expect these changes will significantly impact the Alberta electricity market and ignite further discussion about how best to manage rising utility costs for consumers and businesses.

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San Juan Generating Station eyed for $1 coal-plant sale, as Farmington and Acme propose CCS retrofit, meeting emissions caps and renewable mandates by selling captured CO2 for enhanced oil recovery via a nearby pipeline.

Key Points

A New Mexico coal plant eyed for $1 and a CCS retrofit to cut emissions and sell CO2 for enhanced oil recovery.

✅ $400M-$800M CCS retrofit; 90% CO2 capture target

✅ CO2 sales for enhanced oil recovery; 20-mile pipeline gap

✅ PNM projects shutdown savings; renewable and emissions mandates

One dollar. That’s how much an aging New Mexico coal plant is worth. And by some estimates, even that may be too much.

Acme Equities LLC, a New York-based holding company, is in talks to buy the 847-megawatt San Juan Generating Station for $1, after four of its five owners decided to shut it down. The fifth owner, the nearby city of Farmington, says it’s pursuing the bargain-basement deal with Acme to avoid losing about 1,600 direct and indirect jobs in the area amid a broader just transition debate for energy workers.

We respectfully disagree with the notion that the plant is not economical

Acme’s interest comes as others are looking to exit a coal industry that’s been plagued by costly anti-pollution regulations. Acme’s plan: Buy the plant "at a very low cost," invest in carbon capture technology that will lower emissions, and then sell the captured CO2 to oil companies, said Larry Heller, a principal at the holding group.

By doing this, Acme “believes we can generate an acceptable rate of return,” Heller said in an email.

Meanwhile, San Juan’s majority owner, PNM Resources Inc., offers a distinctly different view, echoing declining coal returns reported by other utilities. A 2022 shutdown will push ratepayers to other energy alternatives now being planned, saving them about $3 to $4 a month on average, PNM has said.

“We could not identify a solution that would make running San Juan Generating Station economical,” said Tom Fallgren, a PNM vice president, in an email.

The potential sale comes as a new clean-energy bill, supported by Governor Lujan Grisham, is working its way through the state legislature. It would require the state to get half of its power from renewable sources by 2030, and 100 percent by 2045, even as other jurisdictions explore small modular reactor strategies to meet future demand. At the same time, the legislation imposes an emissions cap that’s about 60 percent lower than San Juan’s current levels.

In response, Acme is planning to spend $400 million to $800 million to retrofit the facility with carbon capture and sequestration technology that would collect carbon dioxide before it’s released into the atmosphere, Heller said. That would put the facility into compliance with the pending legislation and, at the same time, help generate revenue for the plant.

The company estimates the system would cut emissions by as much as 90 percent, and the captured gas could be sold to oil companies, which uses it to enhance well recovery. The bottom line, according to Heller: “A winning financial formula.”

It’s a tricky formula at best. Carbon-capture technology has been controversial, even as new coal plant openings remain rare, expensive to install and unproven at scale. Additionally, to make it work at the San Juan plant, the company would need to figure out how to deliver the CO2 to customers since the nearest pipeline is about 20 miles (32 kilometers) away.

Reducing costs

Acme is also evaluating ways to reduce costs at San Juan, Heller said, including approaches seen at operators extending the life of coal plants under regulatory scrutiny, such as negotiating a cheaper coal-supply contract and qualifying for subsidies.

Farmington’s stake in the plant is less than 10 percent. But under terms of the partnership, the city — population 45,000 — can assume full control of San Juan should the other partners decide to pull out, mirroring policy debates over saving struggling nuclear plants in other regions. That’s given Farmington the legal authority to pursue the plant’s sale to Acme.

At the end of the day, nobody wants the energy

“We respectfully disagree with the notion that the plant is not economical,” Farmington Mayor Nate Duckett said by email. Ducket said he’s in better position than the other owners to assess San Juan’s importance “because we sit at Ground Zero.”

The city’s economy would benefit from keeping open both the plant and a nearby coal mine that feeds it, according to Duckett, with operations that contribute about $170 million annually to the local area.

While the loss of those jobs would be painful to some, Camilla Feibelman, a Sierra Club chapter director, is hard pressed to see a business case for keeping San Juan open, pointing to sector closures such as the Three Mile Island shutdown as evidence of shifting economics. The plant isn’t economical now, and would almost certainly be less so after investing the capital to add carbon-capture systems.

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Baima Hydropower Station advances China renewable energy on the Wujiang River, a Yangtze tributary in Chongqing; a 525 MW cascade project approved by NDRC, delivering 1.76 billion kWh and improving river shipping.

Key Points

An NDRC-approved 525 MW project on Chongqing's Wujiang River, producing 1.76 billion kWh and improving navigation.

✅ 10.2 billion yuan investment; final cascade plant on Wujiang in Chongqing

✅ Expected output: 1.76 billion kWh; capacity 525 MW; NDRC approval

✅ Improves river shipping; relocation of 5,000 residents in Wulong

China plans to build a 525-MW hydropower station on the Wujiang River, a tributary of the Yangtze River, in Southwest China's Chongqing municipality, aligning with projects like the Lawa hydropower station elsewhere in the Yangtze basin.

The Baima project, the last of a cascade of hydropower stations on the section of the Wujiang River in Chongqing, has gotten the green light from the National Development and Reform Commission, China's state planning agency, even as some independent power projects elsewhere face uncertainty, such as the Siwash Creek project in British Columbia, the Chongqing Municipal Commission of Development and Reform said Monday.

The project, in Baima township of Wulong district, is expected to involve an investment of 10.2 billion yuan ($1.6 billion), as China explores compressed air generation to bolster grid flexibility, it said.

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With a power-generating capacity of 525 MW, it is expected to generate 1.76 billion kwh of electricity a year, supporting efforts to reduce coal power production nationwide, and help improve the shipping service along the Wujiang River.

More than 5,000 local residents will be relocated to make room for the project, which forms part of a broader energy mix alongside advances in nuclear energy in China.

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