Manitoba Hydro looks for rate hike

By Winnipeg Free Press


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Manitoba Hydro is heading into a decade of multi-billion-dollar spending as it finishes one northern dam and builds two more to send more electricity south to power-hungry customers in Canada and the United States.

The bold plan comes on the heels of a recession that took a chunk out of the province's biggest Crown corporation's bottom line, and at a time when it was put under a microscope after a whistleblower alleged Hydro lost $1 billion because of poor management.

Now all that dirty laundry and more will be aired over the coming weeks at a sweeping public hearing into how Manitoba Hydro manages its business.

The focus of the Public Utilities Board hearing is whether Hydro has the right tools in its toolbox to keep rates affordable — it boasts the lowest rates in North America — while growing into one of the continent's largest producers of hydroelectric power.

"We can't risk ratepayers' money with anything else," Hydro's chief financial officer Vince Warden told the three-member PUB panel.

Hydro wants the public regulator to grant its request for a 2.9 per cent rate increase for 2011. The PUB already approved an interim 2010 rate hike of 2.8 per cent.

If the new rate is approved, residential customers will pay between 40 cents and $20 more in 2011, depending on how much power they use. The higher rates, which are forecast to go up to 3.5 per cent in 2012-13, will put about $68.5 million into Hydro's pockets.

The request comes at a time when the U.S. recession has taken a bite out of Hydro's profits and net income from sales is forecast to drop to $149 million by the end of this budget year, from $160 million last year. That number is expected to drop even more and won't recover until the U.S. economy improves and there's more demand for hydro power, Warden said.

Hydro forecasts show that number will jump to $292 million by 2019-20 as new export contracts kick in.

Byron Williams, a lawyer representing the Consumers Association of Canada and Manitoba Society of Seniors at the PUB hearing, said a rate increase more in line with inflation 1.7 per cent would be more appropriate.

"We're just saying to the board, that's too much," Williams said of Hydro's proposed 2.9 per cent increase.

Williams also said while Hydro's growth in power exports is a big opportunity for the province, it also comes with significant risk to Manitobans should the Crown utility suffer a prolonged drought and not have enough water to power its dams.

Warden and Hydro spokesman Glenn Schneider both said the threat of drought has been built into Hydro's plans.

"We start from a foundation where we have the lowest rates in Canada," Schneider said. "We'll still maintain that position going forward."

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PG&E keeps nearly 60,000 Northern California customers in the dark to reduce wildfire risk

PG&E Public Safety Power Shutoff reduces wildfire risk during extreme winds, triggering de-energization across the North Bay and Sierra Foothills under red flag warnings, with safety inspections and staged restoration to improve grid resilience.

 

Key Points

A utility protocol to de-energize lines during extreme fire weather, reducing ignition risks and improving grid safety.

✅ Triggered by red flag warnings, humidity, wind, terrain

✅ Temporary de-energization of transmission and distribution lines

✅ Inspections precede phased restoration to minimize wildfire risk

 

PG&E purposefully shut off electricity to nearly 60,000 Northern California customers Sunday night, aiming to mitigate wildfire risks from power lines during extreme winds.

Pacific Gas and Electric planned to restore power to 70 percent of affected customers in the North Bay and Sierra Foothills late Monday night. As crews inspect lines for safety by helicopter, vehicles and on foot, the remainder will have power sometime Tuesday.

While it was the first time the company shut off power for public safety, PG&E announced its criteria and procedures for such an event in June, said spokesperson Paul Doherty. After wildfires devastated Northern California's wine country last October, he added, PG&E developed its community wildfire safety program division to make power grids and communities more resilient, and prepares for winter storm season through enhanced local response. 

Two sagging PG&E power lines caused one of those wildfires during heavy winds, killing four people and injuring a firefighter, the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection determined earlier this month. Trees or tree branches hitting PG&E power lines started another four wildfires in October 2017. Altogether, the power company has been blamed for igniting 13 wildfires last year.

"We're adapting our electric system our operating practices to improve safety and reliability," Doherty said of the safety program. "That's really the bottom line for us."

Turning off power to so many customers was a "last resort given the extreme fire danger conditions these communities are experiencing," Pat Hogan, senior vice president of electric operations, said in a statement. Conditions that led the company to shut off power included the National Weather Service's red flag fire warnings, humidity levels, sustained winds, temperature, dry fuel and local terrain, Doherty said, amid possible rolling blackouts during grid strain.

The company de-energized more than 78 miles of transmission lines and more than 2,150 miles of distribution power lines Sunday night. Many schools in the area were closed Monday because of the planned power outage, highlighting unequal access to electricity across communities.

Late Saturday and early Sunday, PG&E warned 97,000 customers in 12 counties that the shut off might go into effect. Through automated calls, texts and emails, the company encouraged customers to have drinking water, canned food, flashlights, prescriptions and baby supplies on hand.

Power was also turned off in Southern California on Monday.

San Diego Gas & Electric turned off service to about 360 customers near Cleveland National Forest, where multiple fires have scorched large swaths of land in recent years.

SDG&E has pre-emptively shut off power to customers in the past, most recently in December when 14,000 customers went without power.

Southern California Edison, the primary electric provider across Southern California — including Los Angeles — has a similar power shutoff program. As of Monday night, SCE had yet to turn off power in any of its service areas, a spokesperson told USA TODAY.

 

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Construction starts on disputed $1B electricity corridor

New England Clean Energy Connect advances despite court delays, installing steel poles on a Maine corridor for Canadian hydropower, while legal challenges seek environmental review; permits, jobs, and grid upgrades drive the renewable transmission project.

 

Key Points

An HV line in Maine delivering 1,200 MW of Canadian hydropower to New England to cut emissions and stabilize costs.

✅ Appeals court pauses 53-mile new section; upgrades continue

✅ 1,200 MW hydropower aims to cut emissions, stabilize rates

✅ Permits issued; environmental review litigation ongoing

 

Construction on part of a $1 billion electricity transmission corridor through sparsely populated woods in western Maine is on hold because of legal action, echoing Clean Line's Iowa withdrawal amid court uncertainty, but that doesn't mean all building has been halted.

Workers installed the first of 829 steel poles Tuesday on a widened portion of the existing corridor that is part of the project near The Forks, as the groundwork is laid for the 145-mile ( 230-kilometre ) New England Clean Energy Connect, a project central to Maine's debate over the 145-mile line moving forward.

The work is getting started even though the 1st U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals delayed construction of a new 53-mile ( 85-kilometre ) section.

Three conservation groups are seeking an injunction to delay the project while they sue to force the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers to conduct a more rigorous environmental review.

In western Maine, workers already have staged heavy equipment and timber “mats” that will be used to prevent the equipment from damaging the ground. About 275 Maine workers already have been hired, and more would be hired if not for the litigation, officials said.

“This project has always promised to provide an economic boost to Maine’s economy, and we are already seeing those benefits take shape," Thorn Dickinson, CEO of the New England Clean Energy Connect, said Tuesday.

The electricity transmission line would provide a conduit for up to 1,200 megawatts of Canadian hydropower, reducing greenhouse emissions and stabilizing energy costs in New England as states pursue Connecticut's market overhaul to improve market design, supporters say.

The project, which would be fully funded by Massachusetts ratepayers to meet the state's clean energy goals after New Hampshire rejected a Quebec-Massachusetts proposal elsewhere, calls for construction of a high-voltage power line from Mount Beattie Township on the Canadian border to the regional power grid in Lewiston, Maine.

Critics have been trying to stop the project, reflecting clashes over New Hampshire hydropower in the region, saying it would destroy wilderness in western Maine. They also say that the environmental benefits of the project have been overstated.

In addition to the lawsuit, opponents have submitted petitions seeking to have a statewide vote, even as a Maine court ruling on Hydro-Quebec exports has reshaped the legal landscape.

Sandi Howard, a leading opponent of the project, said the decision by the company to proceed showed “disdain for everyday Mainers” by ignoring permit appeals and ongoing litigation.

“For years, CMP has pushed the false narrative that their unpopular and destructive project is a ‘done deal’ to bully Mainers into submission on this for-profit project. But to be clear, we won’t stop until Maine voters (their customers), have the chance to vote,” said Howard, who led the referendum petition drive for the No CMP Corridor PAC.

The project has received permits from the Army Corps, Maine Department of Environmental Protection, Maine Land Use Planning Commission and Maine Public Utilities Commission.

The final approval came in the form of a presidential permit issued last month from the U.S. Department of Energy, providing green light for the interconnect at the Canadian border, even as customer backlash to utility acquisitions elsewhere underscores public scrutiny.

 

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Electric cars will challenge state power grids

Electric Vehicle Grid Integration aligns EV charging with grid capacity using smart charging, time-of-use rates, V2G, and demand response to reduce peak load, enable renewable energy, and optimize infrastructure planning.

 

Key Points

Aligning EV charging with grid needs via smart charging, TOU pricing, and V2G to balance load and support renewables.

✅ Time-of-use rates shift charging to off-peak hours

✅ Smart charging responds to real-time grid signals

✅ V2G turns fleets into distributed energy storage

 

When Seattle City Light unveiled five new electric vehicle charging stations last month in an industrial neighborhood south of downtown, the electric utility wasn't just offering a new spot for drivers to fuel up. It also was creating a way for the service to figure out how much more power it might need as electric vehicles catch on.

Seattle aims to have nearly a third of its residents driving electric vehicles by 2030. Washington state is No. 3 in the nation in per capita adoption of plug-in cars, behind California and Hawaii. But as Washington and other states urge their residents to buy electric vehicles — a crucial component of efforts to reduce carbon emissions — they also need to make sure the electric grid can handle it amid an accelerating EV boom nationwide.

The average electric vehicle requires 30 kilowatt hours to travel 100 miles — the same amount of electricity an average American home uses each day to run appliances, computers, lights and heating and air conditioning.

An Energy Department study found that increased electrification across all sectors of the economy could boost national consumption by as much as 38 percent by 2050, in large part because of electric vehicles. The environmental benefit of electric cars depends on the electricity being generated by renewables.

So far, states predict they will be able to sufficiently boost power production. But whether electric vehicles will become an asset or a liability to the grid largely depends on when drivers charge their cars.

Electricity demand fluctuates throughout the day; demand is higher during daytime hours, peaking in the early evening. If many people buy electric vehicles and mostly try to charge right when they get home from work — as many now do — the system could get overloaded or force utilities to deliver more electricity than they are capable of producing.

In California, for example, the worry is not so much with the state’s overall power capacity, but rather with the ability to quickly ramp up production and maintain grid stability when demand is high, said Sandy Louey, media relations manager for the California Energy Commission, in an email. About 150,000 electric vehicles were sold in California in 2018 — 8 percent of all state car sales.

The state projects that electric vehicles will consume 5.4 percent of the state’s electricity, or 17,000 gigawatt hours, by 2030.

Responding to the growth in electric vehicles will present unique challenges for each state. A team of researchers from the University of Texas at Austin estimated the amount of electricity that would be required if every car on the road transitioned to electric. Wyoming, for instance, would need to nudge up its electricity production only 17 percent, while Maine would have to produce 55 percent more.

Efficiency Maine, a state trust that oversees energy efficiency and greenhouse gas reduction programs, offers rebates for the purchase of electric vehicles, part of state efforts to incentivize growth.

“We’re certainly mindful that if those projections are right, then there will need to be more supply,” said Michael Stoddard, the program’s executive director. “But it’s going to unfold over a period of the next 20 years. If we put our minds to it and plan for it, then we should be able to do it.”

A November report sponsored by the Energy Department found that there has been almost no increase in electricity demand nationwide over the past 10 years, while capacity has grown an average of 12 gigawatts per year (1 GW can power more than a half-million homes). That means energy production could climb at a similar rate and still meet even the most aggressive increase in electric vehicles, with proper planning.

Charging during off-peak hours would allow not only many electric vehicles to be added to the roads but also utilities to get more use out of power plants that run only during the limited peak times through improved grid coordination and flexible demand.

Seattle City Light and others are looking at various ways to promote charging during ideal times. One method is time-of-day rates. For the Seattle chargers unveiled last month, users will pay 31 cents per kilowatt hour during peak daytime hours and 17 cents during off-peak hours. The utility will monitor use at its charging stations to see how effective the rates are at shifting charging to more favorable times.

The utility also is working on a pilot program to study charging behavior at home. And it is partnering with customers such as King County Metro that are electrifying large vehicle fleets, including growing electric truck fleets that will demand significant power, to make sure they have both the infrastructure and charging patterns to integrate smoothly.

“Traditionally, our utility approach is to meet the load demand,” said Emeka Anyanwu, energy innovation and resources officer for Seattle City Light.

Instead, he said, the utility is working with customers to see whether they can use existing assets without the need for additional investment.

Numerous analysts say that approach is crucial.

“Even if there’s an overall increase in consumption, it really matters when that occurs,” said Sally Talberg, head of the Michigan Public Service Commission, which oversees the state’s utilities. “The encouragement of off-peak charging and other technology solutions that could come to bear could offset any negative impact.”

One of those solutions is smart charging, a system in which vehicles are plugged in but don’t charge until they receive a signal from the grid that demand has tapered off a sufficient amount. This is often paired with a lower rate for drivers who use it. Several smart-charging pilot programs are being conducted by utilities, although they have not yet been phased in widely, amid ongoing debates over charging control among manufacturers and utilities.

In many places, the increased electricity demand from electric vehicles is seen as a benefit to utilities and rate payers. In the Northwest, electricity consumption has remained relatively stagnant since 2000, despite robust population growth and development. That’s because increasing urbanization and building efficiency have driven down electricity needs.

Electric vehicles could help push electricity consumption closer to utilities’ capacity for production. That would bring in revenue for the providers, which would help defray the costs for maintaining that capacity, lowering rates for all customers.

“Having EV loads is welcome, because it’s environmentally cleaner and helps sustain revenues for utilities,” said Massoud Jourabchi, manager of economic analysis for the Northwest Power and Conservation Council, which develops power plans for the region.

Colorado also is working to promote electric cars, with the aim of putting 940,000 on the road by 2030. The state has adopted California’s zero-emission vehicles mandate, which requires automakers to reach certain market goals for their sales of cars that don’t burn fossil fuels, while extending tax credits for the purchase of such cars, investing in charging stations and electrifying state fleets.

Auto dealers have opposed the mandate, saying it infringes on consumer freedom.

“We think it should be a customer choice, a consumer choice and not a government mandate,” said Tim Jackson, president and chief executive of the Colorado Automobile Dealers Association.

Jackson also said that there’s not yet a strong consumer appetite for electric vehicles, meaning that manufacturers that fail to sell the mandated number of emission-free vehicles would be required to purchase credits, which he thinks would drive up the price of their other models.

Republicans in the state have registered similar concerns, saying electric vehicle adoption should take place based on market forces, not state intervention.

Many in the utility community are excited about the potential for electric cars to serve as mobile energy storage for the grid. Vehicle-to-grid technology, known as V2G, would allow cars charging during the day to take on surplus power from renewable energy sources.

Then, during peak demand times, electric vehicles would return some of that stored energy to the grid. As demand tapers off in the evening, the cars would be able to recharge.

In practice, V2G technology could be especially beneficial if used by heavy-duty fleets, such as school buses or utility vehicles. Those fleets would have substantial battery storage and long periods where they are idle, such as evenings and weekends — and even longer periods such as summer and the holiday season when school is out. The batteries on a bus, Jourabchi said, could store as much as 10 times the electricity needed to power a home for a day.

 

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Energy authority clears TEPCO to restart Niigata nuclear plant

TEPCO Kashiwazaki-Kariwa restart plan clears NRA fitness review, anchored by a seven-point safety code, Niigata consent, Fukushima lessons, seismic risk analysis, and upgrades to No. 6 and No. 7 reactors, each rated 1.35 GW.

 

Key Points

TEPCO's plan to restart Kashiwazaki-Kariwa under NRA rules, pending Niigata consent and upgrades to Units 6 and 7.

✅ NRA deems TEPCO fit; legally binding seven-point safety code

✅ Local consent required: Niigata review of evacuation and health impacts

✅ Initial focus on Units 6 and 7; 1.35 GW each, seismic upgrades

 

Tokyo Electric Power Co. cleared a major regulatory hurdle toward restarting a nuclear power plant in Niigata Prefecture, but the utility’s bid to resume its operations still hangs in the balance of a series of political approvals.

The government’s nuclear watchdog concluded Sept. 23 that the utility is fit to operate the plant, based on new legally binding safety rules TEPCO drafted and pledged to follow, even as nuclear projects worldwide mark milestones across different regulatory environments today. If TEPCO is found to be in breach of those regulations, it could be ordered to halt the plant’s operations.

The Nuclear Regulation Authority’s green light now shifts the focus over to whether local governments will agree in the coming months to restart the Kashiwazaki-Kariwa plant.

TEPCO is keen to get the plant back up and running. It has been financially reeling from the closure of its nuclear plants in Fukushima Prefecture following the triple meltdown at the Fukushima No. 1 nuclear plant in 2011 triggered by the earthquake and tsunami disaster.

In parallel, Japan is investing in clean energy innovations such as a large hydrogen system being developed by Toshiba, Tohoku Electric Power and Iwatani.

The company plans to bring the No. 6 and No. 7 reactors back online at the Kashiwazaki-Kariwa nuclear complex, which is among the world’s largest nuclear plants, amid China’s nuclear energy continuing on a steady development track in the region.

The two reactors each boast 1.35 gigawatts in output capacity, while Kenya’s nuclear plant aims to power industry as part of that country’s expansion. They are the newest of the seven reactors there, first put into service between 1996 and 1997.

TEPCO has not revealed specific plans yet on what to do with the older five reactors.

In 2017, the NRA cleared the No. 6 and No. 7 reactors under the tougher new reactor regulations established in 2013 in response to the Fukushima nuclear disaster, while jurisdictions such as Ontario support continued operation at Pickering under strict oversight.

It also closely scrutinized the operator’s ability to run the Niigata Prefecture plant safely, given its history as the entity responsible for the nation’s most serious nuclear accident.

After several rounds of meetings with top TEPCO managers, the NRA managed to hold the utility’s feet to the fire enough to make it pledge, in writing, to abide by a new seven-point safety code for the Kashiwazaki-Kariwa plant.

The creation of the new code, which is legally binding, is meant to hold the company accountable for safety measures at the facility.

“As the top executive, the president of TEPCO will take responsibility for the safety of nuclear power,” one of the points reads. “TEPCO will not put the facility’s economic performance above its safety,” reads another.

The company promised to abide by the points set out in writing during the NRA’s examination of its safety regulations.

TEPCO also vowed to set up a system where the president is directly briefed on risks to the nuclear complex, including the likelihood of earthquakes more powerful than what the plant is designed to withstand. It must also draft safeguard measures to deal with those kinds of earthquakes and confirm whether precautionary steps are in place.

The utility additionally pledged to promptly release public records on the decision-making process concerning crucial matters related to nuclear safety, and to preserve the documents until the facility is decommissioned.

TEPCO plans to complete its work to reinforce the safety of the No. 7 reactor in December. It has not set a definite deadline for similar work for the No. 6 reactor.

To restart the Kashiwazki-Kariwa plant, TEPCO needs to obtain consent from local governments, including the Niigata prefectural government.

The prefectural government is studying the plant’s safety through a panel of experts, which is reviewing whether evacuation plans are adequate as off-limits areas reopen and the health impact on residents from the Fukushima nuclear disaster.

Niigata Governor Hideyo Hanazumi said he will not decide on the restart until the panel completes its review.

The nuclear complex suffered damage, including from fire at an electric transformer, when an earthquake it deemed able to withstand hit in 2007.

 

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NT Power Penalized $75,000 for Delayed Disconnection Notices

NT Power OEB Compliance Penalty highlights a $75,000 fine for improper disconnection notices, 14-day rule violations, process oversight failures, refunds, LEAP support, and corrective training to strengthen consumer protection and regulatory adherence in Ontario areas.

 

Key Points

A $75,000 OEB fine to NT Power for improper disconnection notices; refunds, LEAP support, and improved compliance.

✅ $75k administrative monetary penalty; $25k LEAP donation; refunds

✅ 870 notices misdated; 14-day rule training implemented

✅ 10 disconnects reconnected; $100 goodwill credits

 

The Ontario Energy Board recently ruled against Newmarket-Tay Power Distribution Ltd. (NT Power), fining them $75,000 for failing to issue timely disconnection notices to 870 customers between April and August 2022. These notices did not comply with the Ontario Energy Board's distribution system code, similar to standards reaffirmed in the OEB decision on Hydro One rates earlier this year, which mandates a minimum 14-day notice period before disconnection.

Out of the affected customers, ten had their electricity services disconnected, and six were additionally charged reconnection fees. However, NT Power has since reconnected all disconnected customers and refunded the reconnection fees, as confirmed by the Ontario Energy Board.

In response to these issues, NT Power has voluntarily accepted an assurance of compliance. This agreement stipulates that NT Power will pay a $75,000 administrative monetary penalty. Furthermore, they will make an additional payment of $25,000 to the Salvation Army's Northridge Community Church, which administers the Low-income Energy Assistance Program (LEAP) within NT Power's service area, aligning with broader efforts to reduce costs for industry highlighted by Canadian Manufacturers & Exporters recently, according to the association.

This is not the first time NT Power has faced compliance issues in this regard. The utility company admitted that this incident marks the second instance in three years where they failed to adhere to their disconnection-related obligations as outlined in the code, and sector governance debates, including the Manitoba Hydro board debate, underscore how oversight remains a national focus.

In a statement to NewmarketToday, NT Power acknowledged a similar issue three years ago when they were alerted to problems with their disconnection process. They promptly made adjustments to align their in-house procedures with the requirements of the Ontario Energy Board. Unfortunately, they neglected to implement a secondary check, leading to disconnect notices being dated a few days too early.

Alex Braletic, NT Power's Vice President of Engineering and Operation, clarified that no customers were actually disconnected prematurely, and debates over paying for electricity in India illustrate how enforcement challenges differ globally, but the issued letters contained inaccuracies. He added that NT Power has since instituted additional verification procedures to prevent such errors from occurring again.

The Ontario Energy Board emphasized that NT Power has assured them that corrective measures have been taken to ensure that their staff involved in the disconnection process receive proper training and management oversight, and recent market reactions such as Hydro One shares falling after leadership changes underscore the importance of strong governance to guarantee compliance with regulatory requirements.

Brian Hewson, Vice President of Consumer Protection and Industry Performance at the Ontario Energy Board, stated, referencing earlier Ontario rate reductions for businesses that complemented consumer protections, "As a result of the actions we have taken and NT Power’s assurance that it is aware of its obligations and has taken steps to improve its processes, consumers will be better protected."

Braletic encouraged NT Power's customers who are facing difficulties paying their electricity bills to reach out to their customer service department or visit their website. He emphasized that various programs and services are available to provide relief for bills, and amid ongoing Toronto Hydro impersonation scams customers should contact NT Power directly. NT Power is committed to collaborating with customers proactively and connecting them with assistance to avoid serving them with disconnection notices.

Furthermore, NT Power plans to send a letter to the ten affected customers and provide each of them with a $100 bill credit as a goodwill gesture.

 

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Electric vehicles to transform the aftermarket … eventually

Heavy-Duty Truck Electrification is disrupting the aftermarket as diesel declines: fewer parts, regenerative braking, emissions rules, e-drives, gearboxes, and software engineering needs reshape service demand, while ICE fleets persist for years.

 

Key Points

Transition of heavy trucks to EV systems, reducing parts and emissions while reshaping aftermarket service and skills.

✅ 33% fewer parts; regenerative braking slashes brake wear

✅ Diesel share declines; EVs and natural gas slowly gain

✅ Aftermarket shifts to e-drives, gearboxes, software and service

 

Those who sell parts and repair trucks might feel uneasy when reports emerge about a coming generation of electric trucks.

There are reportedly about 33% fewer parts to consider when internal combustion engines and transmissions are replaced by electric motors. Features such as regenerative braking are expected to dramatically reduce brake wear. As for many of the fluids needed to keep components moving? They can remain in their tanks and drums.

Think of them as disruptors. But presenters during the annual Heavy Duty Aftermarket Dialogue are stressing that the changes are not coming overnight. Chris Patterson, a consultant and former Daimler Trucks North America CEO, noted that the Daimler electrification plan underscores the shift as he counts just 50 electrified heavy trucks in North America.

About 88% of today’s trucks run on diesel, with the remaining 12% mostly powered by gasoline, said John Blodgett, MacKay and Company’s vice-president of sales and marketing. Five years out, even amid talk of an EV inflection point, he expects 1% to be electric, 2% to be natural gas, 12% to be gasoline, and 84% on diesel.

But a decade from now, forecasts suggest a split of 76% diesel, 11% gasoline, 7% electric, and 5% natural gas, with a fraction of a percent relying on hydrogen-electric power. Existing internal combustion engines will still be in service, and need to be serviced, but aftermarket suppliers are now preparing for their roles in the mix, especially as Canada’s EV opportunity comes into focus for North American players.

“This is real, for sure,” said Delphi Technologies CEO Rick Dauch.

Aftermarket support is needed
“As programs are launched five to six years from now, what are the parts coming back?” he asked the crowd. “Braking and steering. The fuel injection business will go down, but not for 20-25 years.” The electric vehicles will also require a gear box and motor.

“You still have a business model,” he assured the crowd of aftermarket professionals.

Shifting emissions standards are largely responsible for the transformation that is occurring. In Europe, Volkswagen’s diesel emissions scandal and future emissions rules of Euro 7 will essentially sideline diesel-powered cars, even as electric buses have yet to take over transit systems. Delphi’s light-duty diesel business has dropped 70% in just five years, leading to plant closures in Spain, France and England.

“We’ve got a billion-dollar business in electrification, last year down $200 million because of the downturn in light-duty diesel controllers,” Dauch said. “We think we’re going to double our electrification business in five years.”

That has meant opening five new plants in Eastern European markets like Turkey, Romania and Poland alone.

Deciding when the market will emerge is no small task, however. One new plant in China offered manufacturing capacity in July 2019, but it has yet to make any electric vehicle parts, highlighting mainstream EV challenges tied to policy shifts, because the Chinese government changed the incentive plans for electric vehicles.

‘All in’ on electric vehicles
Dana has also gone “all in” on electrification, said chairman and CEO Jim Kamsickas, referring to Dana’s work on e-drives with Kenworth and Peterbilt. Its gasket business is focusing on the needs of battery cooling systems and enclosures.

But he also puts the demand for new electric vehicle systems in perspective. “The mechanical piece is still going to be there.”

The demand for the new components and systems, however, has both companies challenged to find enough capable software engineers. Delphi has 1,600 of them now, and it needs more.

“Just being a motor supplier, just being an inverter supplier, just being a gearbox supplier itself, yes you’ll get value out of that. But in the longhaul you’re going to need to have engineers,” Kamsickas said of the work to develop systems.

Dauch noted that Delphi will leave the capital-intensive work of producing batteries to other companies in markets like China and Korea. “We’re going to make the systems that are in between – inverters, chargers, battery management systems,” he said.

Difficult change
But people working for European companies that have been built around diesel components are facing difficult days. Dauch refers to one German village with a population of 1,200, about 800 of whom build diesel engine parts. That business is working furiously to shift to producing gasoline parts.

Electrification will face hurdles of its own, of course. Major cities around the world are looking to ban diesel-powered vehicles by 2050, but they still lack the infrastructure needed to charge all the cars and truck fleet charging at scale, he added.

Kamsickas welcomes the disruptive forces.

“This is great,” he said. “It’s making us all think a little differently. It’s just that business models have had to pivot – for you, for us, for everybody.”

They need to be balanced against other business demands, including evolving cross-border EV collaboration dynamics, too.

Said Kamsickas: “Working through the disruption of electrification, it’s how do you financially manage that? Oh, by the way, the last time I checked there are [company] shareholders and stakeholders you need to take care of.”

“It’s going to be tough,” Dauch agreed, referring to the changes for suppliers. “The next three to four years are really going to be game changes. “There’ll be some survivors and some losers, that’s for sure.”

 

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