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Ontario Pickering Nuclear Closure will shift supply to natural gas, raising emissions as the electricity grid manages nuclear refurbishment, IESO planning, clean power imports, and new wind, solar, and storage to support electrification.

Key Points

Ontario will close Pickering and rely on natural gas, increasing emissions while other nuclear units are refurbished.

✅ 14% of Ontario electricity supplied by Pickering now

✅ Natural gas use rises; grid emissions projected up 375%

✅ IESO warns gas phaseout by 2030 risks blackouts, costs

The Ontario government will not reconsider plans to close the Pickering nuclear station and instead stop-gap the consequent electricity shortfall with natural gas-generated power in a move that will, as an analysis of Ontario's grid shows, hike the province’s greenhouse gas emissions substantially in the coming years.

In a report released this week, a nuclear advocacy group urged Ontario to refurbish the aging facility east of Toronto, which is set to be shuttered in phases in 2024 and 2025, prompting debate over a clean energy plan after Pickering as the closure nears. The closure of Pickering, which provides 14 per cent of the province’s annual electricity supply, comes at the same time as Ontario’s other two nuclear stations are undergoing refurbishment and operating at reduced capacity.

Canadians for Nuclear Energy, which is largely funded by power workers' unions, argued closing the 50-year-old facility will result in job losses, emissions increases, heightened reliance on imported natural gas and an electricity supply gap across Ontario.

But Palmer Lockridge, spokesperson for the provincial energy minister, said further extending Pickering’s lifespan isn’t on the table.

“As previously announced in 2020, our government is supporting Ontario Power Generation’s plan to safely extend the life of the Pickering Nuclear Generating Station through the end of 2025,” said Lockridge in an emailed response to questions.

“Going forward, we are ensuring a reliable, affordable and clean electricity system for decades to come. That’s why we put a plan in place that ensures we are prepared for the emerging energy needs following the closure of Pickering, and as a result of our government’s success in growing and electrifying the province’s economy.”

The Progressive Conservative government under Premier Doug Ford has invested heavily in electrification, sinking billions into electric vehicle and battery manufacturing and industries like steel-making to retool plants to run on electricity rather than coal, and exploring new large-scale nuclear plants to bolster baseload supply.

Natural gas now provides about seven per cent of the province’s energy, a piece of the pie that will rise significantly as nuclear energy dwindles. Emissions from Ontario’s electricity grid, which is currently one of the world’s cleanest with 94 per cent zero-emission power generation, are projected to rise a whopping 375 per cent as the province turns increasingly to natural gas generation. Those increases will effectively undo a third of the hard-won emissions reductions the province achieved by phasing out coal-fired power generation.

The Independent Electricity System Operator (IESO), which manages Ontario’s grid, studied whether the province could phase out natural gas generation by 2030 and concluded that “would result in blackouts and hinder electrification” and increase average residential electricity costs by $100 per month.

The Ontario Clean Air Alliance, however, obtained draft documents from the electricity operator that showed it had studied, but not released publicly, other scenarios that involved phasing out natural gas without energy shortfalls, price hikes or increases in emissions.

The Ontario government will not reconsider plans to close the Pickering nuclear station and instead stop-gap the consequent electricity shortfall facing Ontario with natural gas-generated power in a move that will hike the province’s greenhouse gas emissions.

One model suggested increasing carbon taxes and imports of clean energy from other provinces could keep blackouts, costs and emissions at bay, while another involved increasing energy efficiency, wind generation and storage.

“By banning gas-fired electricity exports to the U.S., importing all the Quebec water power we can with the existing transmission lines and investing in energy efficiency and wind and solar and storage — do all those things and you can phase out gas-fired power and lower our bills,” said Jack Gibbons, chair of the Ontario Clean Air Alliance.

The IESO has argued in response that the study of those scenarios was not complete and did not include many of the challenges associated with phasing out natural gas plants.

Ontario Energy Minister Todd Smith asked the IESO to develop “an achievable pathway to zero-emissions in the electricity sector and evaluate a moratorium on new-build natural gas generation stations,” said his spokesperson. That report, an early look at halting gas power, is expected in November.

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Cold-Climate Heat Pumps deliver efficient heating and cooling for Northern B.C. Net Zero Ready homes, with air-source Mitsubishi H2i systems, triple-pane windows, blower door ACH 0.8, BC Hydro rebates, and CleanBC incentives.

Key Points

Electric air-source systems that heat and cool in subzero climates, cutting emissions and lowering energy costs.

✅ Net Zero Ready, Step Code 5, ACH 0.8 airtightness

✅ Operate efficiently to about -28 C with backup heat

✅ Eligible for BC Hydro and CleanBC rebates

Heat pump provides heating, cooling in northern B.C. home
It's a tradition at Vanderhoof-based Northern Homecraft that, on the day of the blower door test for a just-completed home, everyone who worked on the build gathers to watch it happen. And in the spring of 2021, on a dazzling piece of land overlooking the mouth of the Stuart River near Fort St. James, that day was a cause for celebration.

A new 3,400-square foot home subjected to the blower door test – a diagnostic tool to determine how much air is entering or escaping from a home – was rated as having just .8 air changes per hour (ACH). That helps make it a Net Zero Ready home, and BC Energy Code Step 5 compliant. That means it would take about a third of the amount of energy to heat the home compared to a typical similar-sized home in B.C. today.

From an energy-efficiency perspective, this is a home whose evident beauty is anything but skin deep.

"The home has lot of square footage of finished living space, and it also has a lot of glazing," says Northern Homecraft owner Shay Bulmer, referring to the home's large windows. "We had a lot of window space to deal with, as well as large vaulted open areas where you can only achieve so much additional insulation. There were a few things that the home had going against it as far as performance goes. There were challenges in keeping it comfortable year-round."

Well-insulated home ideal for heat pump option
Most homes in colder areas of B.C. lean on gas-fueled heating systems to deal with the often long, chilly winters. But with the arrival of cold climate heat pumps capable of providing heat efficiently when temperatures dip as low as -30°C, there's now a clean option for those homes, and using more electricity for heat is gaining support in the North as well.

Heat pumps are an increasingly popular option, both for new and existing homes, because they avoid carbon emissions associated with fossil use while also offering summer cooling, even as record-high electricity demand in Yukon underscores the need for efficient systems.

The Fort St. James home, which was built with premium insulation, airtightness and energy efficiency in mind, made the decision to opt for a heat pump even easier. Still, the heat pump option took the home's owners Dexter and Cheryl Hodder by surprise. While their focus was on designing a home that took full advantage of views down to the river, the couple was under the distinct impression that heat pumps couldn't cut it in the chilly north.

"I wasn't really considering a heat pump, which I thought was only a good solution in a moderate climate," says Dexter, who as director of research and education for the John Prince Research Forest, studies wildlife and forestry interactions in north central B.C. "The specs on the heat pump indicate it would work down to -28°C, and I was skeptical of that. But it worked exactly to spec. It almost seems ridiculous to generate heat from outside air at those low temperatures, but it does."

Getting it right with support and rebates
Northern Homecraft took advantage of BC Hydro's Mechanical System Design Pilot program to ensure proper heat pump system design, installation, and verification for the home were applied, and with BC Hydro's first call for power in 15 years driven by electrification, the team prioritized efficient load management.

Based on the home's specific location, size, and performance targets, they installed a ducted Mitsubishi H2I air-source heat pump system. Windows are triple pane, double coated, and a central feature of the home, while insulation specifications were R-40 deep frame insulation in the exterior walls, R-80 insulation in the attic, and R-40 insulation in the vaulted ceilings.

The combination of the year-round benefits of heat pumps, their role in reducing fossil fuel emissions, and the availability of rebates, is making the systems increasingly attractive in B.C., especially as two new BC generating stations were recently commissioned to expand clean supply.

BC Hydro offers home renovation rebates of up to $10,000 for energy-efficient upgrades to existing homes. Rebates are available for windows and doors, insulation, heat pumps, and heat pump hot water heaters. In partnership with CleanBC, rebates of up to $11,000 are also available – when combined with the federal Greener Homes program – for those switching from fossil fuel heating to an electric heat pump.

'Heat dome' pushes summer highs to 40°C
Cooling wasn't really a consideration for Dexter and Cheryl when they were living in a smaller bungalow shaded by trees. But they knew that with the big windows, vaulted ceiling in the living room, and an upstairs bedroom in the new home, there may come a time when they needed air conditioning.

That day arrived shortly after the home was built, as the infamous "heat dome" settled on B.C. and drove temperatures at Fort St. James to a dizzying 40°C.

"It was disgustingly hot, and I don't care if I never see that again here," says Hodder, with a laugh. "But the heat pump maintained the house really nicely throughout, at about 22 degrees. The whole house stayed cool. We just had to close the door to the upper bedroom so it wasn't really heating up during the day."

Hodder says he had to work with the heat pump manufacturer Mitsubishi a couple times over that first year to fix a few issues with the system's controls. But he's confident that the building's tight and well-insulated envelope, and the heat pump's backup electric heat that kicks in when temperatures dip below -28°C, will make it the system-for-all-seasons it was designed to be.

Even with the use of supplemental electric heating during the record chill of December-January, the home's energy costs weren't much higher than the mid-winter energy bills they used to pay in the couple's smaller bungalow that relied on a combination of gas-fired in-floor heating and electric baseboards, as gas-for-electricity swaps are being explored elsewhere.

Fort St. James is a former fur trading post located northwest of Prince George and a short drive north of Vanderhoof. Winters are cold and snowy, with average daily low temperatures in December and January of around -14°C.

"During the summer and into the fall, we were paying well less than $100 a month," says Hodder, looking back at electricity bills over the first year in the home. "And that's everything. We're only electric here, and we also had both of us working from home all last year."

Word of mouth making heat pumps popular in Fort St. James
While the size of the home presented new challenges for the builders, it's one of five Net Zero Ready or Net Zero homes – all equipped with some form of heat pump – that Northern Homecraft has built in Fort St. James, even as debates about going nuclear for electricity continue in B.C.

The smallest of the homes is a two-bedroom, one-bathroom home that's just under 900 square feet. Northern Homecraft may be based in Vanderhoof, but it's the much smaller town of Fort St. James where they're making their mark with super-efficient homes. Net Zero Ready homes are up to 80% more efficient than the standard building code, and become Net Zero once renewable energy generation – usually in the form of photovoltaic solar – is installed, and programs like switching 5,000 homes to geothermal show the broader momentum for clean heating.

"We were pretty proud that the first home we built in Fort St. James was the first single family Net Zero Ready home built in B.C.," says Northern Homecraft's Bulmer. "And I think it's kind of caught on in a smaller community where everyone talks to everyone."

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Irving Oil hydrogen electrolyzer expands green hydrogen capacity at the Saint John refinery with Plug Power technology, cutting carbon emissions, enabling clean fuel for buses, and supporting Atlantic Canada decarbonization and renewable grid integration.

Key Points

A 5 MW Plug Power unit at Irving's Saint John refinery producing low-carbon hydrogen via electrolysis.

✅ Produces 2 tonnes/day, enough to fuel about 60 hydrogen buses

✅ Uses grid power; targets cleaner supply via renewables and nuclear

✅ First Canadian refinery investing in electrolyzer technology

Irving Oil is expanding hydrogen capacity at its Saint John, N.B., refinery in a bid to lower carbon emissions and offer clean energy to customers.

The family-owned company said Tuesday it has a deal with New York-based Plug Power Inc. to buy a five-megawatt hydrogen electrolyzer that will produce two tonnes of hydrogen a day — equivalent to fuelling 60 buses with hydrogen — using electricity from the local grid and drawing on examples such as reduced electricity rates proposed in Ontario to grow the hydrogen economy.

Hydrogen is an important part of the refining process as it's used to lower the sulphur content of petroleum products like diesel fuel, but most refineries produce hydrogen using natural gas, which creates carbon dioxide emissions and raises questions explored in hydrogen's future for power companies in the energy sector.

"Investing in a hydrogen electrolyzer allows us to produce hydrogen in a very different way," Irving director of energy transition Andy Carson said in an interview.

"Instead of using natural gas, we're actually using water molecules and electricity through the electrolysis process to produce ... a clean hydrogen."

Irving plans to continue to work with others in the province to decarbonize the grid amid pressures like Ontario's push into energy storage as electricity supply tightens and ensure the electricity being used to power its hydrogen electrolyzer is as clean as possible, he said.

N.B. Power's electrical system includes 14 generating stations powered by hydro, coal, oil, wind, nuclear and diesel. The utility has committed to increasing its renewable energy sources and exploring innovations such as EV-to-grid integration piloted in Nova Scotia.

Irving said it will be the first oil refinery in Canada to invest in electrolyzer technology, as Ontario's Hydrogen Innovation Fund supports broader deployment nationwide.

The company said its goal is to offer hydrogen fuelling infrastructure in Atlantic Canada, complementing N.L.'s fast-charging network for EV drivers in the region.

"This kind of investment allows us to not just move to a cleaner form of hydrogen in the refinery. It also allows us to store and make hydrogen available to the marketplace," Carson said.

Federal watchdog warns Canada's 2030 emissions target may not be achievable
The hydrogen technology will help Irving "unlock pent up demand for hydrogen as an energy transition fuel for logistics organizations," he said.

Alberta also aims to expand its hydrogen production over the coming years, alongside British Columbia's $900 million hydrogen project moving ahead on the West Coast. 

Those plans lean on the development of carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology that aims to trap the emissions created when producing hydrogen from natural gas.

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Hitachi UK Nuclear Project Freeze reflects Horizon Nuclear Power's suspended Anglesey plant amid Brexit uncertainty, investor funding gaps, rising safety regulation costs, and a 300 billion yen write-down, impacting Britain's low-carbon electricity plans.

Key Points

Hitachi halted Horizon's Anglesey nuclear plant over funding and Brexit risks, recording a 300 billion yen write-down.

✅ 3 trillion yen UK nuclear project funding stalled

✅ 300 billion yen impairment wipes Horizon asset value

✅ Brexit, safety rules raised costs and investor risk

Japan’s Hitachi Ltd said on Thursday it has decided to freeze a 3 trillion yen ($28 billion) British nuclear power project and will consequently book a write down of 300 billion yen.

The suspension comes as Hitachi’s Horizon Nuclear Power failed to find private investors for its plans to build a plant in Anglesey, Wales, where local economic concerns have been raised, which promised to provide about 6 percent of Britain’s electricity.

“We’ve made the decision to freeze the project from the economic standpoint as a private company,” Hitachi said in a statement.

Hitachi had called on the British government to boost financial support for the project to appease investor anxiety, but turmoil over the country’s impending exit from the European Union limited the government’s capacity to compile plans, people close to the matter previously said.

Hitachi had called on the British government to boost financial support for the project to appease investor anxiety, but turmoil over the country’s impending exit from the European Union and setbacks at Hinkley Point C limited the government’s capacity to compile plans, people close to the matter previously said.

Hitachi had banked on a group of Japanese investors and the British government each taking a one-third stake in the equity portion of the project, the people said. The project would be financed one-third by equity and rest by debt.

The nuclear writedown wipes off the Horizon unit’s asset value, which stood at 296 billion yen as of September-end.

Hitachi stopped short of scrapping the northern Wales project. The company will continue to discuss with the British government on nuclear power, it said.

However, industry sources said hurdles to proceed with the project are high considering tighter safety regulations since a meltdown at Japan’s Fukushima nuclear power plant in 2011 drove up costs, even as Europe’s nuclear decline strains energy planning.

Analysts and investors viewed the suspension as an effective withdrawal and saw the decision as a positive step that has removed uncertainties for the Japanese conglomerate.

Hitachi bought Horizon in 2012 for 696 million pounds ($1.12 billion), fromE.ON and RWE as the German utilities decided to sell their joint venture following Germany’s nuclear exit after the Fukushima accident.

Hitachi’s latest decision further dims Japan’s export prospects, even as some peers pursue UK offshore wind investments to diversify.

Toshiba Corp last year scrapped its British NuGen project after its US reactor unit Westinghouse went bankrupt, while Westinghouse in China reported no major impact, and it failed to sell NuGen to South Korea’s KEPCO.

Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd has effectively abandoned its Sinop nuclear project in Turkey, a person involved in the project previously told Reuters, as cost estimates had nearly doubled to around 5 trillion yen.

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London Tube Strikes Economic Impact highlights transport disruption reducing foot traffic, commuter flows, and tourism, squeezing small businesses, hospitality revenue, and citywide growth while business leaders urge negotiations, resolution, and policy responses to stabilize operations.

Key Points

Reduced transport options cut foot traffic and sales, straining small businesses and slowing London-wide growth.

✅ Hospitality venues report lower revenue and temporary closures

✅ Commuter and tourism declines reduce daily sales and bookings

✅ Business groups urge swift negotiations to restore services

London's economy is facing significant challenges due to ongoing tube strikes, challenges that are compounded by scrutiny of UK energy network profits and broader cost pressures across sectors, with businesses across the city experiencing disruptions that are impacting their operations and bottom lines.

Impact on Small Businesses

Small businesses, particularly those in the hospitality sector, are bearing the brunt of the disruptions caused by the strikes. Many establishments rely on the steady flow of commuters and tourists that the tube system facilitates, while also hoping for measures like temporary electricity bill relief that can ease operating costs during downturns. With reduced transportation options, foot traffic has dwindled, leading to decreased sales and, in some cases, temporary closures.

Economic Consequences

The strikes are not only affecting individual businesses but are also having a ripple effect on the broader economy, a dynamic seen when commercial electricity consumption plummeted in B.C. during the pandemic. The reduced activity in key sectors is contributing to a slowdown in economic growth, echoing periods when BC Hydro demand fell 10% and prompting policy responses such as Ontario electricity rate reductions for businesses, with potential long-term consequences if the disruptions continue.

Calls for Resolution

Business leaders and industry groups are urging for a swift resolution to the strikes. They emphasize the need for dialogue between the involved parties to reach an agreement that minimizes further economic damage and restores normalcy to the city's transportation system.

The ongoing tube strikes in London are causing significant disruptions to the city's economy, particularly affecting small businesses that depend on the efficient movement of people. Immediate action is needed to address the issues, drawing on tools like a subsidized hydro plan used elsewhere to spur recovery, to prevent further economic downturn.

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Germany January Power Mix shows gas-fired generation rising, coal steady, and nuclear phaseout impacts, amid cold weather, energy prices, industrial demand, and emissions targets shaping renewables, grid stability, and security of supply.

Key Points

The January electricity mix, highlighting gas, coal, renewables, and nuclear exit effects on emissions, prices, and demand.

✅ Gas output up 13% to 8.74 TWh, share at 18.6%.

✅ Coal share 23%, down year on year, steady vs late 2023.

✅ Nuclear gap filled by gas and coal; emissions below Jan 2023.

Germany's electricity generation in January presented a fascinating snapshot of its energy transition journey. As the country strives to move away from fossil fuels, with renewables overtaking coal and nuclear in its power mix, it grapples with the realities of replacing nuclear power and meeting fluctuating energy demands.

Gas Takes the Lead:

Gas-fired power plants saw their highest output in two years, generating 8.74 terawatt hours (TWh). This 13% increase compared to January 2023 compensated for the closure of nuclear reactors, which were extended during the energy crisis to shore up supply, and colder weather driving up heating needs. This reliance on gas, however, pushed its share in the electricity mix to 18.6%, highlighting Germany's continued dependence on fossil fuels.

Coal Fades, but Not Forgotten:

While gas surged, coal-fired generation remained below previous levels, dropping 29% from January 2023. However, it stayed relatively flat compared to late 2023, suggesting utilities haven't entirely eliminated it. Coal still held a 23% share, and periodic coal reliance remains evident, exceeding gas' contribution, reflecting its role as a reliable backup for intermittent renewable sources like wind.

Nuclear Void and its Fallout:

The shutdown of nuclear plants in April 2023 created a significant gap, previously accounting for an average of 12% of annual electricity output. This loss is being compensated through gas and coal, with gas currently the preferred choice, even as a nuclear option debate persists among policymakers. This strategy kept January's power sector emissions lower than the previous year, but rising demand could shift the balance.

Industry's Uncertain Impact:

Germany's industrial sector, a major energy consumer, is facing challenges like high energy prices and weak consumer demand. While the government aims to foster industrial recovery, uncertainties linger due to a shaky coalition and limited budget, and debate about a possible nuclear resurgence continues in parallel, which could reshape policy. Any future industrial revival would likely increase energy demand and potentially necessitate more gas or coal.

Cost-Driven Choices and Emission Concerns:

The choice between gas and coal depends on their relative costs, in a system pursuing a coal and nuclear phase-out under long-term policy. Currently, gas seems more favorable emission-wise, but if its price rises, coal might become more attractive, impacting overall emissions.

Looking Ahead:

Germany's energy transition faces a complex balancing act, with persistent grid expansion woes and exposure to cheap gas complicating progress. While the reliance on gas and coal highlights the difficulties in replacing nuclear, the focus on emissions reduction is encouraging. Navigating the challenges of affordability, industrial needs, and climate goals will be crucial for a successful transition to a clean and secure energy future.

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