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EU Winter Energy Mix 2022-2023 shows renewables, wind, solar, and hydro overtaking coal and gas, as demand fell amid high prices; Ember and IEA confirm lower emissions across Europe during the energy crisis.

Key Points

It describes Europe's winter power mix: reduced coal and gas, and record wind, solar, and hydro output.

✅ Coal generation fell 11% YoY; gas output declined even more.

✅ Renewables supplied 40%: wind, solar, and hydro outpaced fossil fuels.

✅ Ember and IEA confirm trends; mild winter tempered demand.

The EU burned less coal this winter during the energy crisis than in previous years, according to an analysis, quashing fears that consumption of the most polluting fossil fuel would soar as countries scrambled to find substitutes for lost supplies of Russian gas.

The study from energy think-tank Ember shows that between October 2022 and March 2023 coal generation fell 27 terawatt hours, or almost 11 per cent year on year, while gas generation fell 38 terawatt hours, as renewables crowded out gas and consumers cut electricity consumption in response to soaring prices.

Renewable energy supplies also rose, with combined wind and solar power and hydroelectric output outstripping fossil fuel generation for the first time, providing 40 per cent of all electricity supplies. The Financial Times checked Ember’s findings with the International Energy Agency, which said they broadly matched its own preliminary analysis of Europe’s electricity generation over the winter.

The study demonstrates that fears of a steep rebound in coal usage in Europe’s power mix were overstated, despite the continent’s worst energy crisis in 40 years following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, even as stunted hydro and nuclear output in parts of Europe posed challenges.

While Russia slashed gas supplies to Europe and succeeded in boosting energy prices for consumers to record levels, the push by governments to rejuvenate old coal plants, including Germany's coal generation, to ensure the lights stayed on ultimately did not lead to increased consumption.

“With Europe successfully on the other side of this winter and major supply disruptions avoided, it is clear the threatened coal comeback did not materialise,” analysts at Ember said in the report.

“With fossil fuel generation down, EU power sector emissions during winter were the lowest they have ever been.”

Ember cautioned, however, that Europe had been assisted by a mild winter that helped cut electricity demand for heating and there was no guarantee of such weather next winter. Companies and households had also endured a lot of pain as a result of the higher prices that had led them to cut consumption, even though in some periods, such as the latest lockdown, power demand held firm in parts of Europe.

Total electricity consumption between October and March declined 94 terawatt hours, or 7 per cent, compared with the same period in winter 2021/22, continuing post-Covid transition dynamics across Europe.

“For a lot of people this winter was really hard with electricity prices that were extraordinarily high and we shouldn’t lose sight of that,” said Ember analyst Harriet Fox.

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Hungary's Russian Energy Dependence underscores EU tensions, as TurkStream gas flows, discounted imports, and pipeline reliance challenge sanctions, energy security, diversification, and decoupling goals amid Ukraine war pressures and bloc unity concerns.

Key Points

It is Hungary's reliance on Russian gas and oil via TurkStream, complicating EU sanctions and energy independence.

✅ 85% gas, 60% oil imports from Russia via TurkStream pipelines.

✅ Discounted contracts seldom cut bills; security cited by Budapest.

✅ EU decoupling targets hampered; sanctions leverage and unity erode.

Hungary's energy policies have positioned it as a notable outlier within the European Union, particularly in the context of the ongoing geopolitical tensions stemming from Russia's invasion of Ukraine. While the EU has been actively working to reduce its dependence on Russian energy sources through an EU $300 billion plan to dump Russian energy, Hungary has maintained and even strengthened its energy ties with Moscow, raising concerns about EU unity and the effectiveness of sanctions.

Strategic Energy Dependence

Hungary's energy infrastructure is heavily reliant on Russian supplies. Approximately 85% of Hungary's natural gas and more than 60% of its oil imports originate from Russia. This dependence is facilitated through pipelines such as TurkStream, which delivers Russian gas to Hungary via Turkey and the Balkans amid Europe's energy nightmare over price volatility and security. In 2025, Hungary's gas imports through TurkStream are projected to reach 8 billion cubic meters, a significant increase from previous years. These imports are often secured at discounted rates, although such savings may not always be passed on to Hungarian consumers.

Political and Economic Considerations

Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has been a vocal critic of EU sanctions against Russia and has consistently blocked EU initiatives aimed at providing military aid to Ukraine, even as Ukraine leans on power imports to keep the lights on. His government argues that Russia's military capabilities make it an unyielding adversary and that a ceasefire would only solidify its territorial gains. Orbán's stance has led to Hungary's isolation within the EU on matters related to the conflict in Ukraine.

Economically, Hungary's reliance on Russian energy has been justified by the government as a means to maintain low energy prices for consumers and ensure energy security. However, critics argue that this strategy undermines EU efforts to achieve energy independence and reduces the bloc's leverage over Russia amid a global energy war marked by price hikes and instability.

EU's Response and Challenges

The European Union has set ambitious goals to reduce its reliance on Russian energy, aiming to halt imports of Russian natural gas by the end of 2027 and prohibit new contracts starting in 2025 while exploring gas price cap strategies to contain market volatility. However, Hungary's continued imports of Russian energy complicate these efforts. The TurkStream pipeline, in particular, has become a focal point in discussions about the EU's energy strategy, as it enables ongoing Russian gas exports to Europe despite the bloc's broader decoupling initiatives.

Hungary's actions have raised concerns among other EU member states about the effectiveness of the sanctions regime and the potential for other countries to exploit similar loopholes. There are calls for stricter policies, including banning spot gas purchases and enforcing traceability of gas origins, and consideration of emergency measures to limit electricity prices to ensure genuine energy independence and reduce overreliance on external suppliers.

Hungary's steadfast energy relationship with Russia presents a significant challenge to the European Union's collective efforts to reduce dependence on Russian energy sources. While Hungary argues that its energy strategy is in the national interest, it risks undermining EU solidarity and the bloc's broader geopolitical objectives. As the EU continues to navigate its energy transition and response to the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, including energy ceasefire violations reported by both sides, Hungary's position will remain a critical point of contention within the union.

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Nova Scotia Integrated Resource Plan evaluates NSPI supply options, UARB oversight, Muskrat Falls imports, coal retirements, wind and biomass expansion, transmission upgrades, storage, and least-cost pathways to decarbonize the grid for ratepayers.

Key Points

A 25-year roadmap assessing supply, imports, costs, and emissions to guide least-cost decarbonization for Nova Scotia.

✅ Compares wind, biomass, gas, imports, and storage costs

✅ Addresses coal retirements, emissions caps, and reliability

✅ Recommends transmission upgrades and Muskrat Falls utilization

Maintaining a viable electricity network requires good long-term planning and, as a recent grid operations report notes, ongoing operational improvements. The existing stock of generating assets can become obsolete through aging, changes in fuel prices or environmental considerations. Future changes in demand must be anticipated.

Periodically, an integrated resource plan is created to predict how all this will add up during the ensuing 25 years. That process is currently underway and is led by Nova Scotia Power Inc. (NSPI) and will be submitted for approval to the Utilities and Review Board (UARB).

Coal-fired plants are still the largest single source of electricity in Nova Scotia. They need to be replaced with more environmentally friendly sources when they reach the end of their useful lives. Other sources include wind, hydroelectricity from rivers, biomass, as seen in increased biomass use by NS Power, natural gas and imports from other jurisdictions.

Imports are used sparingly today but will be an important source when the electricity from Muskrat Falls comes on stream. That project has big capacity. It can produce all the power needed in Newfoundland and Labrador (NL), where Quebec's power ambitions influence regional flows, plus the amount already committed to Nova Scotia, and still have a lot left over.

Some sources of electricity are more valuable than others. The daily amount of power from wind and solar cannot be controlled. Fuel-based sources and hydro can.

Utilities make their profits by providing the capital necessary to build infrastructure. Most of the money is borrowed but a portion, typically 30 per cent, usually comes from NSPI or a sister company. On that they receive a rate of return of nine per cent. Nova Scotia can borrow money today at less than two per cent.

The largest single investment of that type is the $1.577-billion Maritime Link connecting power from Newfoundland to Nova Scotia. It continues through to the New Brunswick border to facilitate exports to the United States. NSPI’s sister company, NSP Maritime Link Inc. (NSPML), is making nine per cent on $473 million of the cost.

There is little unexploited hydro capacity in Nova Scotia and there will not be any new coal-fired plants. Large-scale solar is not competitive in Nova Scotia’s climate. Nova Scotia’s needs would not accommodate the amount of nuclear capacity needed to be cost-effective, even as New Brunswick explores small reactors in its strategy.

So the candidates for future generating resources are wind, natural gas, biomass (though biomass criticism remains) and imports from other jurisdictions. Tidal is a promising opportunity but is still searching for a commercially viable technology. 

NSPI is commendably transparent about its process (irp.nspower.ca). At this stage there is little indication of the conclusions they are reaching but that will presumably appear in due course.

The mountains of detail might obscure the fact that NSPI is not an unbiased arbiter of choices for the future.

It is reported that they want to prematurely close the Trenton 5 coal plant in 2023-25. It is valued at $88.5 million. If it is closed early, ratepayers will still have to pay off the remaining value even though the plant will be idle. NSPI wants to plan a decommissioning of five of its other seven plants. There is a federal emissions constraint but retiring coal plants earlier than needed will cost ratepayers a lot.

Whenever those plants are closed, there will be a need for new sources of power. NSPI is proposing to plan for new investments in new transmission infrastructure to facilitate imports. Other possibilities would be additional wind farms, consistent with the shift to more wind and solar projects, thermal plants that burn natural gas or biomass, or storage for excess wind power that arrives before it can be used. The investment in storage could be anywhere from $20 million to $200 million.

These will add to the asset burden funded by ratepayers, even as industrial customers seek discounts while still paying for shuttered coal infrastructure.

External sources of new power will not provide NSPI the same opportunity: wind power by independent producers might be less expensive because they are willing to settle for less than nine per cent or because they are more efficient. Buying more power from Muskrat Falls will use transmission infrastructure we are already paying for. If a successful tidal technology is found, it will not be owned by NSPI or a sister company, which are no longer trying to perfect the technology.

This is not to suggest that NSPI would misrepresent the alternatives. But they can tilt the discussion in their favour. How tough will they be negotiating for additional Muskrat Falls power when it hurts their profits? Arguing for premature coal retirement on environmental grounds is fair game but whether the cost should be accepted is a political choice. 

NSPI is in a conflict of interest. We need a different process. An independent body should author the integrated resource plan. They should be fully informed about NSPI’s views.

They should communicate directly with Newfoundland and Labrador for Muskrat power, with independent wind producers, and with tidal power companies. The UARB cannot do any of these things.

The resulting plan should undergo the same UARB review that NSPI’s version would. This enhances the likelihood that Nova Scotians will get the least-cost alternative.

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Quebec Energy Bill Tariff Delay disrupts Canada-U.S. trade, renewable energy investment, hydroelectric expansion, and clean technology projects, as Trump tariffs on aluminum and steel raise costs, threatening climate targets and green infrastructure timelines.

Key Points

A policy pause in Quebec from U.S. tariff threats, disrupting clean investment, hydro expansion, and climate targets.

✅ Tariff risk inflates aluminum and steel project costs.

✅ Quebec delays clean energy legislation amid trade uncertainty.

✅ Hydroelectric reliance complicates emissions reduction timelines.

The Trump administration's tariff threat has had a significant impact on Quebec's energy sector, with tariff threats boosting support for projects even as the uncertainty resulted in the delay of a critical energy bill. Originally introduced to streamline energy development and tackle climate change, the bill was meant to help transition Quebec towards greener alternatives while fostering economic growth. However, the U.S. threat to impose tariffs on Canadian goods, including energy products, introduced a wave of uncertainty that led to a pause in the bill's legislative process.

Quebec’s energy bill had ambitious goals of transitioning to renewable sources like wind, solar, and hydroelectric power. It sought to support investments in clean technologies and the expansion of the province's clean energy infrastructure, as the U.S. demand for Canadian green power continues to grow across the border. Moreover, it emphasized the reduction of carbon emissions, an important step towards meeting Quebec's climate targets. At its core, the bill aimed to position the province as a leader in green energy development in Canada and globally.

The interruption caused by President Donald Trump's tariff rhetoric has, however, cast a shadow over the legislation. Tariffs, if enacted, would disproportionately affect Canada's energy exports, with electricity exports at risk under growing tensions, particularly in sectors like aluminum and steel, which are integral to energy infrastructure development. These tariffs could increase the cost of energy-related projects, thereby hindering Quebec's ability to achieve its renewable energy goals and reduce carbon emissions in a timely manner.

The tariff threat was seen as a part of the broader trade tensions between the U.S. and Canada, a continuation of the trade war that had escalated under Trump’s presidency. In this context, the Quebec government was forced to reconsider its legislative priorities, with policymakers citing concerns over the potential long-term consequences on the energy industry, as leaders elsewhere threatened to cut U.S.-bound electricity to exert leverage. With the uncertainty around tariffs and trade relations, the government opted to delay the bill until the geopolitical situation stabilized.

This delay underscores the vulnerability of Quebec’s energy agenda to external pressures. While the provincial government had set its sights on an ambitious green energy future, it now faces significant challenges in ensuring that its projects remain economically viable under the cloud of potential tariffs, even as experts warn against curbing Quebec's exports during the dispute. The delay in the energy bill also reflects broader challenges faced by the Canadian energy sector, which is highly integrated with the U.S. market.

The situation is further complicated by the province's reliance on hydroelectric power, a cornerstone of its energy strategy that supplies markets like New York, where tariffs could spike New York energy prices if cross-border flows are disrupted. While hydroelectric power is a clean and renewable source of energy, there are concerns about the environmental impact of large-scale dams, and these concerns have been growing in recent years. The tariff threat may prompt a reevaluation of Quebec’s energy mix and force the government to balance its environmental goals with economic realities.

The potential imposition of tariffs also raises questions about the future of North American energy cooperation. Historically, Canada and the U.S. have enjoyed a symbiotic energy relationship, with significant energy trade flowing across the border. The energy bill in Quebec was designed with the understanding that cross-border energy trade would continue to thrive. The Trump administration's tariff threat, however, casts doubt on this stability, forcing Quebec lawmakers to reconsider how they proceed with energy policy in a more uncertain trade environment.

Looking forward, Quebec's energy sector will likely need to adjust its strategies to account for the possibility of tariffs, while still pushing for a sustainable energy future, especially if Biden outlook for Canada's energy proves more favorable for the sector in the medium term. It may also open the door for deeper discussions about diversification, both in terms of energy sources and trade partnerships, as Quebec seeks to mitigate the impact of external threats. The delay in the energy bill, though unfortunate, may serve as a wake-up call for Canadian lawmakers to rethink how they balance environmental goals with global trade realities.

Ultimately, the Trump tariff threat highlights the delicate balance between regional energy ambitions and international trade dynamics. For Quebec, the delay in the energy bill could prove to be a pivotal moment in shaping the future of its energy policy.

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Ontario Clean Electricity Regulations accelerate renewable energy adoption, drive emissions reduction, and modernize the smart grid with energy storage, efficiency targets, and reliability upgrades to support decarbonization and a stable power system for Ontario.

Key Points

Standards to cut emissions, grow renewables, improve efficiency, and modernize the grid with storage and smart systems.

✅ Phases down fossil generation and invests in storage.

✅ Sets utility efficiency targets to curb demand growth.

✅ Upgrades to smart grid for reliability and resiliency.

Ontario has taken a significant step forward in its energy transition with the introduction of new clean electricity regulations. These regulations, complementing federal Clean Electricity Regulations, aim to reduce carbon emissions, promote sustainable energy sources, and ensure a cleaner, more reliable electricity grid for future generations. This article explores the motivations behind these regulations, the strategies being implemented, and the expected impacts on Ontario’s energy landscape.

The Need for Clean Electricity

Ontario, like many regions around the world, is grappling with the effects of climate change, including more frequent and severe weather events. In response, the province has set ambitious targets to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and increase the use of renewable energy sources, reflecting trends seen in Alberta’s path to clean electricity across Canada. The electricity sector plays a central role in this transition, as it is responsible for a significant portion of the province’s carbon footprint.

For years, Ontario has been moving away from coal as a source of electricity generation, and now, with the introduction of these new regulations, the province is taking a step further in decarbonizing its grid, including its largest competitive energy procurement to date. By setting clear goals and standards for clean electricity, the province hopes to meet its environmental targets while ensuring a stable and affordable energy supply for all Ontarians.

Key Aspects of the New Regulations

The regulations focus on encouraging the use of renewable energy sources such as wind, solar, hydroelectric, and geothermal power. One of the key elements of the plan is the gradual phase-out of fossil fuel-based energy sources. This shift is expected to be accompanied by greater investments in energy storage solutions, including grid batteries, to address the intermittency issues often associated with renewable energy sources.

Ontario’s new regulations also emphasize the importance of energy efficiency in reducing overall demand. As part of this initiative, utilities and energy providers will be required to meet strict energy-saving targets and participate in new electricity auctions designed to reduce costs, ensuring that both consumers and businesses are incentivized to use energy more efficiently.

In addition, the regulations promote technological innovation in the electricity sector. By supporting the development of smart grids, energy storage technologies, and advanced power management systems, Ontario is positioning itself to become a leader in the global energy transition.

Impact on the Economy and Jobs

One of the anticipated benefits of the clean electricity regulations is their positive impact on Ontario’s economy. As the province invests in renewable energy infrastructure and clean technologies, new job opportunities are expected to arise in industries such as manufacturing, construction, and research and development. These regulations also encourage innovation in energy services, which could lead to the growth of new companies and industries, while easing pressures on industrial ratepayers through complementary measures.

Furthermore, the transition to cleaner energy is expected to reduce the long-term costs associated with climate change. By investing in sustainable energy solutions now, Ontario will help mitigate the financial burdens of environmental damage and extreme weather events in the future.

Challenges and Concerns

While the new regulations have been widely praised for their environmental benefits, they are not without their challenges. One of the primary concerns is the potential cost to consumers, and some Ontario hydro policy critique has called for revisiting legacy pricing approaches to improve affordability. While renewable energy sources have become more affordable over the years, transitioning from fossil fuels could still result in higher electricity prices in the short term. Additionally, the implementation of new technologies, such as smart grids and energy storage, will require substantial upfront investment.

Moreover, the intermittency of renewable energy generation poses a challenge to grid stability. Ontario’s electricity grid must be able to adapt to fluctuations in energy supply as more variable renewable sources come online. This challenge will require significant upgrades to the grid infrastructure and the integration of storage solutions to ensure reliable energy delivery.

The Road Ahead

Ontario’s clean electricity regulations represent an important step in the province’s commitment to combating climate change and transitioning to a sustainable, low-carbon economy. While there are challenges to overcome, the benefits of cleaner air, reduced emissions, and a more resilient energy system will be felt for generations to come. As the province continues to innovate and lead in the energy sector, Ontario is positioning itself to thrive in the green economy of the future.

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Clean Electricity Standard (CES) sets utility emissions targets, uses tradable credits, and advances decarbonization via technology-agnostic benchmarks, carbon capture, renewable portfolio standards, upstream methane accounting, and cap-and-trade alternatives in reconciliation policy.

Key Points

CES sets utility emissions targets using tradable credits and benchmarks to drive power-sector decarbonization.

✅ Annual clean energy targets phased to 2050

✅ Tradable credits for compliance across utilities

✅ Includes upstream methane and lifecycle emissions

The Biden Administration and Democratic members of Congress have supported including a clean electricity standard (CES) in the upcoming reconciliation bill. A CES is an alternative to pricing carbon dioxide through a tax or cap-and-trade program and focuses on reducing greenhouse gas emissions produced during electricity generation by establishing targets, while early assessments show mixed results so far. In principle, it is a technology-agnostic approach. In practice, however, it pushes particular technologies out of the market.

The details of the CES are still being developed, but recent legislation may provide insight into how the CES could operate. In May, Senator Tina Smith and Representative Ben Ray Luján introduced the Clean Energy Standard Act of 2019 (CESA), while Minnesota's 100% carbon-free mandate offers a state-level parallel, and in January 2020, the House Energy and Commerce Committee released a discussion draft of the Climate Leadership and Environmental Action for our Nation’s (CLEAN) Future Act. Both bills increase the clean energy target annually until 2050 in order to phase out emissions. Both bills also create a credit system where clean sources of electricity as determined by a benchmark, carbon dioxide emitted per kilowatt-hour, receive credits. These credits may be transferred, sold, and auctioned so utilities that fail to meet targets can procure credits from others, as large energy customers push to accelerate clean energy globally.

The bills’ benchmarks vary, and while the CLEAN Future Act allows natural gas-fired generators to receive partial credits, CESA does not. Under both bills, these generators would be expected to install carbon capture technology to continue meeting increasing targets for clean electricity generation. Both bills go beyond considering the emissions resulting from generation and include upstream emissions for natural gas-fired generators. Natural gas, a greenhouse gas, that is leaked upstream of a generator during transportation is to be included among its emissions. The CLEAN Future Act also calls for newly constructed hydropower generators to account for the emissions associated with the facility’s construction despite producing clean electricity. These additional provisions demonstrate not only the CES’s inability to fully address the issue of emissions but also the slippery slope of expanding the program to include other markets, echoing cost and reliability concerns as California exports its energy policies across the West.

A majority of states have adopted clean energy, electricity, or renewable portfolio standards, with some considering revamping electricity rates to clean the grid, leaving legislators with plenty of examples to consider. As they weigh their options, legislators should consider if they are effectively addressing the problem at hand, economy-wide emissions reductions, and at what cost, drawing on examples like New Mexico's 100% clean electricity bill to inform trade-offs.

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