BGE unveils ambitious smart grid initiative

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Baltimore Gas and Electric Company (BGE) has filed with the Maryland Public Service Commission (PSC) a comprehensive and advanced Smart Grid initiative, including the planned installation of 2 million residential and commercial smart meters, that could potentially save BGE electric and gas customers in excess of $2.6 billion over the life of the project.

In an extensive pilot program that began in 2008, smart meters and a new pricing plan proved that customers can reduce peak electricity usage by about a third and enjoy significant savings. BGE is seeking prompt action by the Maryland PSC and federal approval of stimulus dollars to position the utility to move to the next phase of this potential smart grid investment.

“This landmark proposal is one of the most ambitious of its kind nationwide,” said Kenneth DeFontes, president and CEO of BGE. “Our Smart Grid initiative includes a host of transformational programs and energy management tools that have the potential to make a meaningful difference in the lives of our customers and the communities we serve in Maryland. This potential capital investment would improve system reliability and, most importantly, help customers conserve energy and lower their energy bills.

“The successful pilot programs we’ve instituted to date demonstrate that customers can make meaningful changes in how they consume energy in response to appropriate education, price signals, information about usage, and economic incentives,” DeFontes said. “Following the successful rollout of BGE’s PeakRewards and energy efficiency programs, investment in Smart Grid is the next major step in our journey to reducing peak demand and long-term energy costs.”

The first phase of BGE’s Smart Grid proposal would be the installation of 2 million advanced, or “smart,” electric and gas meters, operating through a robust utility-to-customer, two-way communications network, which forms the foundation for an automated, digital intelligent grid.

The utility is also planning to roll out a new Smart Energy Pricing (SEP) program as its standard rate schedule, which would pay customers rebates for reducing power consumption during peak periods. In the pilot of advanced metering technology and Smart Energy Pricing, participating residential customers reduced their consumption during peak periods by 26 percent to 37 percent, saved more than $100 on average and gave the program a 93 percent satisfaction rating.

BGEÂ’s ability to rapidly and most cost-effectively carry out the Smart Grid initiative depends upon PSC approval and cost recovery in a timeframe that would allow the utility to qualify for a competitive Department of Energy (DOE) grant of up to $200 million to partially fund the initiative. BGE anticipates filing its DOE grant application in early August 2009, and it is anticipated that DOE would begin announcing grant awards in October 2009. The utility estimates initial deployment and operating costs of nearly $500 million over five years, and expects that over the projectÂ’s lifecycle customer savings will exceed costs by a ratio of more than 3 to 1.

Under the cost recovery mechanism proposed by BGE, the monthly customer surcharge would be 38 cents per month for electric-only customers and 44 cents per month for gas-only customers in the first year of implementation, and the customer cost would increase slightly over time as benefits also ramp up. Over the life of the program, the monthly surcharge would average approximately $1.24 and $1.52, respectively, for residential electric and gas customers, and would be reduced based on the award of a DOE grant. Customer savings from reduced energy and operating costs will be several times greater than the amount of the surcharge.

“The program we’ve developed is essential to addressing the long-term energy and environmental objectives of the EmPOWER Maryland Energy Efficiency and Conservation Act of 2008, which calls for a statewide reduction of 15 percent in per capita electricity usage and peak demand by 2015,” said DeFontes. “Smart Grid is the foundation from which we can build a more efficient and sustainable energy network in Maryland. It enables large-scale penetration of renewable energy sources and allows us to begin the testing and research necessary to support next-generation transportation innovations, such as plug-in hybrid electric vehicles.

“We believe our Smart Grid initiative is tremendously beneficial to our customers and the state of Maryland, and we’re eager to move to the next phase of this Smart Grid investment proposal with Maryland as our partner,” said DeFontes. “We will seek an expeditious review and approval by the Maryland PSC so we can begin providing our customers with the savings, reliability, service quality and environmental benefits as soon as possible.”

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Over 30% of Global Electricity from Renewables

Global Renewable Electricity Milestone signals solar, wind, hydro, and geothermal surpass 30% of power generation, driven by falling costs, battery storage, smart grids, and ambitious policy targets that strengthen energy security and decarbonization.

 

Key Points

It marks renewables exceeding 30% of global power, enabled by cheaper tech, storage, and strong policy.

✅ Costs of solar and wind fall, boosting competitiveness

✅ Storage and smart grids improve reliability and flexibility

✅ Policies target decarbonization while ensuring just transition

 

A recent report by the energy think tank Ember marks a significant milestone in the global energy transition. For the first time ever, according to their analysis, renewable energy sources like solar, wind, hydro, and geothermal now account for more than 30% of the world's electricity generation, a milestone echoed by wind and solar growth globally. This achievement signifies a pivotal shift towards a cleaner and more sustainable energy future.

The report attributes this growth to several key factors. Firstly, the cost of renewable energy technologies like solar panels and wind turbines has plummeted in recent years, making them increasingly competitive with traditional fossil fuels. Secondly, advancements in battery storage technology are facilitating the integration of variable renewable sources like solar and wind into the grid, addressing concerns about reliability. Thirdly, a growing number of countries are implementing ambitious renewable energy targets and policies, driven by environmental concerns and the desire for energy security.

The rise of renewables is not uniform across the globe. Europe leads the pack, with the European Union generating a staggering 44% of its electricity from renewable sources in 2023. Countries like Denmark, Germany, and Spain are at the forefront of this clean energy revolution. Developing nations are also starting to embrace renewables, driven by factors like falling technology costs and the need for affordable electricity access.

However, challenges remain. Fossil fuels still dominate the global energy mix, accounting for roughly two-thirds of electricity generation. Integrating a higher proportion of variable renewables into the grid necessitates robust storage solutions and smart grid technologies. Additionally, the transition away from fossil fuels needs to be managed carefully to ensure a just and equitable outcome for workers in the coal, oil, and gas sectors.

Despite these challenges, the report by Ember paints an optimistic picture. The rapid growth of renewables demonstrates their increasing viability and underscores the global commitment to a cleaner energy future, and in the United States, for example, renewables are projected to reach one-fourth of U.S. electricity generation, reinforcing this trajectory. The report also highlights the economic benefits of renewables, with new jobs created in the clean energy sector and reduced reliance on volatile fossil fuel prices.

Looking ahead, continued technological advancements, supportive government policies, and increased investment in renewable energy infrastructure are all crucial for further growth, with scenarios such as BNEF's 2050 outlook suggesting wind and solar could provide half of electricity, underscoring the importance of sustained effort. Furthermore, international cooperation is essential to ensure a smooth and equitable global energy transition. Developed nations can play a vital role by sharing technology and expertise with developing countries.

The 30% milestone is a significant step forward, but it's just the beginning. As the world strives to combat climate change and ensure energy security for future generations, renewables are poised to play a central role in powering a sustainable future, with wind and solar surpassing coal in the U.S. offering a clear signal of the shift. The report by Ember serves as a powerful reminder that a clean energy future is not just a dream, but a rapidly unfolding reality.

 

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Ukraine's parliament backs amendments to electricity market law

Ukraine Electricity Market Price Caps empower the regulator, the National Commission, to set marginal prices on day-ahead, intraday, and balancing markets, stabilize competition, support thermal plants, and sustain the heating season via green tariff obligations.

 

Key Points

Regulatory limits set by the National Commission to curb price spikes, ensure competition, and secure heat supply.

✅ Sets marginal prices for day-ahead, intraday, balancing markets

✅ Mitigates collusion risks; promotes effective competition

✅ Ensures TPP operation and heat supply during heating season

 

The Verkhovna Rada, Ukraine's parliament, has adopted at first reading a draft law that proposes giving the National Commission for State Regulation of Energy and Public Utilities the right to set marginal prices in the electricity market, amid EU market revamp plans that aim to reshape pricing, until 2023.

A total of 259 MPs voted for the document at a parliament meeting on Tuesday, November 12, amid electricity import pressures that have tested the grid, according to an Ukrinform correspondent.

Bill No. 2233 introducing amendments to the law on the electricity market provides for the legislative regulation of the mechanism for fulfilling special obligations for the purchase of electricity at a "green" tariff, preventing the uncontrolled growth of electricity prices due to the lack of effective competition, including recent price-fixing allegations that have raised concerns, ensuring heat supply to consumers during the heating period by regulating the issue of the functioning of thermal power plants in the new electricity market.

It is proposed to introduce respective amendments to the law of Ukraine on the electricity market, alongside steps toward synchronization with ENTSO-E to enhance system stability.

In particular, the draft law gives the regulator the right for the period until July 1, 2023 to set marginal prices on the day-ahead market, the intraday market and the balancing market for each trade zone, reflecting similar EU fixed-price contract initiatives being discussed, and to decide on the obligation for producers to submit proposals (applications) for the sale of electricity on the day-ahead market.

Lawmakers think that the adoption of the bill and empowering the regulator to set marginal prices in the relevant segments of the electricity market will prevent, even as rolling back prices in Europe remains difficult for policymakers, "an uncontrolled increase in electricity prices due to the lack of effective competition or collusion between market players, as well as regulate the issue of the functioning of thermal power plants during the autumn and winter period, which is a necessary prerequisite for providing heat to consumers during the heating period."

The new model of the electricity market was launched on July 1 as the UK weighs decoupling gas and power prices to shield consumers, in accordance with the provisions of the law on the electricity market, adopted in 2017.

 

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UK Emergency energy plan not going ahead

National Grid Demand Flexibility Service helps stabilise the UK grid during tight supply, offering discounts for smart meter users who shift peak-time electricity use, reducing power cut risks amid low wind and import constraints.

 

Key Points

A National Grid scheme paying smart homes to cut peak-time use, easing supply pressure and avoiding power cuts.

✅ Pays volunteers with smart meters to reduce peak demand.

✅ Credits discounts for shifting use to off-peak windows.

✅ Manages tight margins and helps avert UK power cuts.

 

National Grid has decided not to activate a scheme on Tuesday to help the UK avoid power cuts after being poised to do so.

It would have seen some households offered discounts on their electricity bills if they cut peak-time use.

National Grid had been ready to trigger the scheme following a warning that Britain's energy supplies were looking tighter than usual this week.

However, it decided that the measure was not required.

Alerts are sent out automatically when expected supplies drop below a certain level. But they do not mean that blackouts are likely, or that the situation is critical.

National Grid said it was "confident" it would be able to manage margins and "demand is not at risk".

Discounts
Earlier on Monday, the grid operator said it was considering whether to pay households across Britain to reduce their energy use to help out on Tuesday evening.

Under the Demand Flexibility Service (DFS), announced earlier this month, customers that have signed up could get discounts on their bills if they use less electricity in a given window of time.

That could mean delaying the use of a tumble-dryer or washing machine, or cooking dinner in the microwave rather than the oven.

Major suppliers such as Octopus and British Gas are taking part, but only customers that have an electricity smart meter and that have volunteered are eligible. About 14 million UK homes have an electricity smart meter.

The DFS has already been tested twice but has not yet run live.

Octopus, the supplier with the most customers signed up, said that some households had earned more than £4 during the hour-long tests, while the average saving was "well over £1".

It came after forecasts projected a large drop in the amount of power that Britain will be able to import from French nuclear power stations on Monday and Tuesday evenings.

The lack of strong winds to power turbines has also affected how much power can be generated within the UK, and efforts to fast-track grid connections aim to ease constraints.

Such warnings are not unusual - around 12 have been issued and cancelled without issue in the last six years, and other regions such as Canada are seeing grids strained by harsh weather as well.

However, they have become more common this year due to the energy crisis, and the most recent notice was sent out last week.

The situation means that the UK will have to import electricity from other sources on Monday and Tuesday evening.

Supplies are also expected be tight in France, forecasters say.

France has been facing months of problems with its nuclear power plants, which generate around three-quarters of the country's electricity.

More than half of the nuclear reactors run by state energy company EDF have closed due to maintenance problems and technical issues.

It has added to a massive energy crisis in Europe which is facing a winter without gas supplies from Russia.

 

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Ukraine Prepares for Winter Amid Energy Challenges

Ukraine Winter Energy Resilience focuses on energy security, grid repairs, renewable power, EU support, heating reliability, electricity imports, and conservation measures to stabilize infrastructure and protect households amid conflict and severe cold.

 

Key Points

A strategy to secure heat and power via repairs, renewables, imports, and conservation during wartime winter.

✅ Grid repairs and hardening of power plants and transmission lines

✅ Diversified supply: renewables, electricity imports, fuel reserves

✅ Public conservation to cut peak demand and safeguard essential services

 

As winter approaches, Ukraine is bracing for a challenging season, especially in the energy sector amid global energy instability and price pressures, which has been heavily impacted by the ongoing conflict with Russia. With the weather forecast predicting colder temperatures, the Ukrainian government is ramping up efforts to secure energy supplies and bolster infrastructure, aiming to ensure that citizens have access to heating and electricity during the harsh months ahead.

The Energy Landscape in Ukraine

The conflict has severely disrupted Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, leading to widespread damage and inefficiencies. Key facilities, including power plants and transmission lines, have been targeted amid energy ceasefire violations reported by both sides, resulting in significant energy shortages. As a response, the government has implemented a series of measures aimed at stabilizing the energy sector, ensuring that the nation can withstand the winter months.

One of the primary strategies has been the repair and reinforcement of energy infrastructure. Officials have prioritized critical facilities that are essential for electricity generation and distribution. Emergency repairs and upgrades are being carried out to restore functionality and improve resilience against potential attacks.

In addition to repairing existing infrastructure, Ukraine is actively seeking to diversify its energy sources. This includes increasing reliance on renewable energy, such as wind and solar, which can be less susceptible to disruption. The shift toward renewables not only enhances energy security and supports moving away from fossil fuels in line with Ukraine's long-term environmental goals.

International Support and Collaboration

Ukraine's challenges have not gone unnoticed on the international stage. Countries and organizations around the world have pledged energy security support to help Ukraine fortify its energy sector. This assistance includes financial aid, technical expertise, and the provision of materials needed for infrastructure repairs.

The European Union, in particular, has been a key ally, providing both immediate and long-term support to Ukraine's energy efforts. The EU's commitment to helping Ukraine transition to a more sustainable energy model, including steps toward ENTSO-E synchronization to bolster grid stability, is reflected in various initiatives aimed at increasing energy efficiency and integrating renewable sources.

Furthermore, international organizations have mobilized resources to assist in the restoration of damaged infrastructure. This collaboration not only enhances Ukraine's energy capabilities but also strengthens ties with global partners, fostering a sense of solidarity amidst the ongoing conflict.

Preparing for Winter Challenges

As temperatures drop, the demand for heating will surge, putting additional pressure on an already strained energy system. To address this, the Ukrainian government is urging citizens to prepare for potential shortages. Officials are promoting energy conservation measures, encouraging households to reduce consumption and use energy more efficiently.

Public awareness campaigns are being launched to educate citizens about the importance of energy saving and the steps they can take to minimize their energy use and prevent outages during peak demand. These initiatives aim to foster a collective sense of responsibility as the nation braces for the winter ahead.

In addition to conservation efforts, the government is exploring alternative energy supplies. This includes negotiating with neighboring countries for electricity imports and enhancing domestic production where feasible. By securing a diverse range of energy sources, Ukraine aims to mitigate the risk of shortages and ensure that essential services remain operational.

The Role of Resilience and Innovation

Despite the challenges, the resilience of the Ukrainian people and their commitment to overcoming adversity shine through. Communities are coming together to support one another, sharing resources and information to help navigate the difficulties of winter.

Innovative solutions are also emerging as part of the response to the energy crisis. Local initiatives aimed at promoting energy efficiency and the use of alternative energy sources are gaining traction. From community-led solar projects to energy-efficient building practices, Ukrainians are finding ways to adapt and thrive even in the face of uncertainty.

Looking Ahead

As Ukraine prepares for the winter months, the focus remains on ensuring energy security and maintaining the functionality of critical infrastructure. While challenges loom, the collective efforts of the government, international partners, and citizens demonstrate a strong commitment to resilience and adaptation.

In conclusion, the upcoming winter presents significant challenges for Ukraine's energy sector, yet the nation's determination to secure its energy future remains unwavering. With ongoing repairs, international support, and community innovation, Ukraine is working diligently to navigate the complexities of this winter, aiming to emerge stronger and more resilient in the face of adversity. The resilience shown today will be crucial as the country continues to confront the ongoing impacts of conflict and seeks to build a sustainable future.

 

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As Alberta electricity generators switch to gas, power price cap comes under spotlight

Alberta Energy-Only Electricity Market faces capacity market debate, AESO price cap review, and coal-to-gas shifts by TransAlta and Capital Power, balancing reliability with volatility as investment signals evolve across Alberta's grid.

 

Key Points

An energy market paying generators only for electricity sold, with AESO oversight and a price cap guiding new capacity.

✅ AESO reviewing $999 per MW-h wholesale price cap.

✅ UCP retained energy-only; capacity market plan cancelled.

✅ TransAlta and Capital Power shift to coal-to-gas.

 

The Kenney government’s decision to cancel the redesign of Alberta’s electricity system to a capacity market won’t side-track two of the province’s largest power generators from converting coal-fired facilities to burn natural gas as part of Alberta’s shift from coal to cleaner energy overall.

But other changes could be coming to the province’s existing energy-only electricity market — including the alteration of the $999 per megawatt-hour (MW-h) wholesale price cap in Alberta.

The heads of TransAlta Corp. and Capital Power Corp. are proceeding with strategies to convert existing coal-fired power generating facilities to use natural gas in the coming years.

Calgary-based TransAlta first announced in 2017 that it would make the switch, as the NDP government was in the midst of overhauling the electricity sector and wind generation began to outpace coal in the province.

At the time, the Notley government planned to phase out coal-fired power by 2030, even as Alberta moved to retire coal by 2023 in practice, and shift Alberta into an electricity capacity market in 2021.

Such a move, made on the recommendation of the Alberta Electric System Operator (AESO), was intended to reduce price volatility and ensure system reliability.

Under the energy-only market, generators receive payments for electricity produced and sold into the grid. In a capacity market, generators are also paid for having power available on demand, regardless of how often they sell energy into the provincial grid.

The UCP government decided last month to ditch plans for a capacity market after consulting with the sector, saying it would be better for consumers.

On a conference call, TransAlta CEO Dawn Farrell said the company will convert coal-fired generating plants to burn gas, although it may alter the mix between simple conversions and switching to so-called “hybrid” plants.

(A hybrid conversion is a larger and more-expensive switch, as it includes installing a new gas turbine and heat-recovery steam generator, but it creates a highly efficient combined cycle unit.)

“Our view is fundamentally that carbon will be priced over the next 20 years no matter what,” she said Friday.

“We cannot get off coal fast enough in this company, and gas right now in Alberta is extremely inexpensive…

“So our coal-to-gas strategy is completely predicated on our belief that it’s not smart to be in carbon-intensive fuels for the future.”

Elsewhere in Canada, the Stop the Shock campaign has advocated for reviving coal power, underscoring ongoing policy debates.

The company said it’s planning the coal-to-gas conversion and re-powering of some or all of the units at its Keephills and Sundance facilities to gas-fired generation sometime between 2020 and 2023.

Similarly, Capital Power CEO Brian Vaasjo said the Edmonton-based company is moving ahead with a project that will allow it to burn both coal and natural gas at its Genesee generating station, even as Ontario’s energy minister sought to explore a halt to natural gas generation elsewhere.

In June, the company announced it would spend an estimated $50 million between 2019 and 2021 to allow it to use gas at the facility.

“What we’re doing is going to be dual fuel, so we will be able to operate 100 per cent natural gas or 100 per cent coal and everything in between,” Vaasjo said in an interview.

“You can expect to see we will be burning coal in the winter when natural gas prices are high, and we will be burning natural gas in summer when gas prices are real low.”

The transition comes as the government’s decision to stick with the energy-only market has been welcomed by players in the industry, and as Alberta's electricity future increasingly leans on wind resources.

A study by electricity consultancy EDC Associates found the capacity market would result in consumers paying an extra $1.4 billion in direct costs in 2021-22, as it required more generation to come online earlier than expected.

These additional costs would have accumulated to $10 billion by 2030, said EDC chief executive Duane-Reid Carlson.

For Capital Power, the decision to stick with the current system makes the province more investable in the future. Vaasjo said there was great uncertainty about the transition to a capacity market, and the possibility of rules shifting further.

Officials with Enmax Corp. said the city-owned utility would not have invested in future generation under the proposed capacity market.

“There is no short-term need (today) for new generation, so we’re just looking at the market and saying, ‘OK, as it evolves, we will see what happens,’” said Enmax vice-president Tim Boston.

Sticking with the energy-only market doesn’t mean Alberta will keep the existing rules.

In a July 25 letter, Alberta Energy Minister Sonya Savage directed AESO chair Will Bridge to examine if changes to the existing market are needed and report back by July 2020.

AESO, which manages the power grid, has been asked to investigate whether the current price cap of $999 per megawatt-hour (MW-h) should be changed.

The price ceiling hasn’t been altered since the energy-only market was implemented by the Klein government about two decades ago.

While allowing prices to go higher would increase volatility, reflecting lessons from Europe’s power crisis about scarcity pricing, during periods of rising demand and limited supply, it would send a signal to generators when investment in new generation is required, said Kent Fellows, a research associate at the University of Calgary’s School of Public Policy.

“Keeping the price (cap) too low could end up costing us more in the long run,” he said.

In a 2016 report, AESO said the province examined raising the price cap to $5,000 per MW-h, but “determined that it was unlikely to be successful in attracting investment due to increased price volatility.”

However, the amount of future generation that will be required in Alberta has been scaled back by the province.

In the United States, the Electricity Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) allows wholesale power prices in the state to climb to a cap of $9,000 per megawatt hours as demand rises — as it did Tuesday in the midst of a heat wave, according to Bloomberg.

Jim Wachowich, legal counsel for the Consumers’ Coalition of Alberta, said while few players are exposed to spot electricity prices, he has yet to be convinced raising the cap would be good for Albertans.

“Someone has to show me the evidence, and I suspect that’s what the minister has asked the AESO to do,” he said.

Generators say they believe some tinkering is needed to the energy-only market to ensure new generation is built when it’s required.

“The No. 1 change that the government has to … think about is in pricing,” added Farrell.

“If you don’t have enough of a price signal in an energy-only market to attract new capital, you won’t get new capital — and you’ll run up against the wall.”

 

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A Texas-Sized Gas-for-Electricity Swap

Texas Heat Pump Electrification replaces natural gas furnaces with electric heating across ERCOT, cutting carbon emissions, lowering utility bills, shifting summer peaks to winter, and aligning higher loads with strong seasonal wind power generation.

 

Key Points

Statewide shift from gas furnaces to heat pumps in Texas, reducing emissions and bills while moving grid peak to winter.

✅ Up to $452 annual utility savings per household

✅ CO2 cuts up to 13.8 million metric tons in scenarios

✅ Winter peak rises, summer peak falls; wind aligns with load

 

What would happen if you converted all the single-family homes in Texas from natural gas to electric heating?

According to a paper from Pecan Street, an Austin-based energy research organization, the transition would reduce climate-warming pollution, save Texas households up to $452 annually on their utility bills, and flip the state from a summer-peaking to a winter-peaking system. And that winter peak would be “nothing the grid couldn’t evolve to handle,” according to co-author Joshua Rhodes, a view echoed by analyses outlining Texas grid reliability improvements statewide today.

The report stems from the reality that buildings must be part of any comprehensive climate action plan.

“If we do want to decarbonize, eventually we do have to move into that space. It may not be the lowest-hanging fruit, but eventually we will have to get there,” said Rhodes.

Rhodes is a founding partner of the consultancy IdeaSmiths and an analyst at Vibrant Clean Energy. Pecan Street commissioned the study, which is distilled from a larger original analysis by IdeaSmiths, at the request of the nonprofit Environmental Defense Fund.

In an interview, Rhodes said, “The goal and motivation were to put bounding on some of the claims that have been made about electrification: that if we electrify a lot of different end uses or sectors of the economy...power demand of the grid would double.”

Rhodes and co-author Philip R. White used an analysis tool from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory called ResStock to determine the impact of replacing natural-gas furnaces with electric heat pumps in homes across the ERCOT service territory, which encompasses 90 percent of Texas’ electricity load.

Rhodes and White ran 80,000 simulations in order to determine how heat pumps would perform in Texas homes and how the pumps would impact the ERCOT grid.

The researchers modeled the use of “standard efficiency” (ducted, SEER 14, 8.2 HSPF air-source heat pump) and “superior efficiency” (ductless, SEER 29.3, 14 HSPF mini-split heat pump) heat pump models against two weather data sets — a typical meteorological year, and 2011, which had extreme weather in both the winter and summer and highlighted blackout risks during severe heat for many regions.

Emissions were calculated using Texas’ power sector data from 2017. For energy cost calculations, IdeaSmiths used 10.93 cents per kilowatt-hour for electricity and 8.4 cents per therm for natural gas.

Nothing the grid can't handle
Rhodes and White modeled six scenarios. All the scenarios resulted in annual household utility bill savings — including the two in which annual electricity demand increased — ranging from $57.82 for the standard efficiency heat pump and typical meteorological year to $451.90 for the high-efficiency heat pump and 2011 extreme weather year.

“For the average home, it was cheaper to switch. It made economic sense today to switch to a relatively high-efficiency heat pump,” said Rhodes. “Electricity bills would go up, but gas bills can go down.”

All the scenarios found carbon savings too, with CO2 reductions ranging from 2.6 million metric tons with a standard efficiency heat pump and typical meteorological year to 13.8 million metric tons with the high-efficiency heat pump in 2011-year weather.

Peak electricity demand in Texas would shift from summer to winter. Because heat pumps provide both high-efficiency space heating and cooling, in the scenario with “superior efficiency” heat pumps, the summer peak drops by nearly 24 percent to 54 gigawatts compared to ERCOT’s 71-gigawatt 2016 summer peak, even as recurring strains on the Texas power grid during extreme conditions persist.

The winter peak would increase compared to ERCOT’s 66-gigawatt 2018 winter peak, up by 22.73 percent to 81 gigawatts with standard efficiency heat pumps and up by 10.6 percent to 73 gigawatts with high-efficiency heat pumps.

“The grid could evolve to handle this. This is not a wholesale rethinking of how the grid would have to operate,” said Rhodes.

He added, “There would be some operational changes if we went to a winter-peaking grid. There would be implications for when power plants and transmission lines schedule their downtime for maintenance. But this is not beyond the realm of reality.”

And because Texas’ wind power generation is higher in winter, a winter peak would better match the expected higher load from all-electric heating to the availability of zero-carbon electricity.

 

A conservative estimate
The study presented what are likely conservative estimates of the potential for heat pumps to reduce carbon pollution and lower peak electricity demand, especially when paired with efficiency and demand response strategies that can flatten demand.

Electric heat pumps will become cleaner as more zero-carbon wind and solar power are added to the ERCOT grid, as utilities such as Tucson Electric Power phase out coal. By the end of 2018, 30 percent of the energy used on the ERCOT grid was from carbon-free sources.

According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, three in five Texas households already use electricity as their primary source of heat, much of it electric-resistance heating. Rhodes and White did not model the energy use and peak demand impacts of replacing that electric-resistance heating with much more energy efficient heat pumps.

“Most of the electric-resistance heating in Texas is located in the very far south, where they don’t have much heating at all,” Rhodes said. “You would see savings in terms of the bills there because these heat pumps definitely operate more efficiently than electric-resistance heating for most of the time.”

Rhodes and White also highlighted areas for future research. For one, their study did not factor in the upfront cost to homeowners of installing heat pumps.

“More study is needed,” they write in the Pecan Street paper, “to determine the feasibility of various ‘replacement’ scenarios and how and to what degree the upgrade costs would be shared by others.”

Research from the Rocky Mountain Institute has found that electrification of both space and water heating is cheaper for homeowners over the life of the appliances in most new construction, when transitioning from propane or heating oil, when a gas furnace and air conditioner are replaced at the same time, and when rooftop solar is coupled with electrification, aligning with broader utility trends toward electrification.

More work is also needed to assess the best way to jump-start the market for high-efficiency all-electric heating. Rhodes believes getting installers on board is key.

“Whenever a homeowner’s making a decision, if their system goes out, they lean heavily on what the HVAC company suggests or tells them because the average homeowner doesn’t know much about their systems,” he said.

More work is also needed to assess the best way to jump-start the market for high-efficiency all-electric heating, and how utility strategies such as smart home network programs affect adoption too. Rhodes believes getting installers on board is key.

 

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