Vietnam to build first pumped storage plant

Hydropower Covid-19 Resilience highlights clean, reliable energy and flexible grid services, with pumped storage, automation, and affordability supporting climate action, decarbonization, and recovery through sustainable infrastructure, policy incentives, and capacity upgrades.

Key Points

Hydropower Covid-19 Resilience is the sector's ability to ensure clean, reliable, flexible power during crises.

✅ Record 4,306 TWh in 2019, avoiding 80-100 Mt CO2e emissions.

✅ 1,308 GW installed; 15.6 GW added; flexibility and storage in demand.

✅ Policy, tax incentives, and fast-track approvals to spur projects.

The Covid-19 pandemic has underlined hydropower's resilience and critical role in delivering clean, reliable and affordable energy, especially in times of crisis, as highlighted by IAEA lessons for low-carbon electricity. This is the conclusion of two new reports published by the International Hydropower Association (IHA).

The 2020 Hydropower Status Report presents latest worldwide installed capacity and generation data, showcasing the sector's contribution to global carbon reduction efforts, with low-emissions sources projected to cover almost all demand increases in the next three years. It is published alongside a Covid-19 policy paper featuring recommendations for governments, financial institutions and industry to respond to the current health and economic crisis.

"Preventing an emergency is far better than responding to one," says Roger Gill, President of IHA, highlighting the need to incentivise investments in renewable infrastructure, a view echoed by Fatih Birol during the crisis. "The events of the past few months must be a catalyst for stronger climate action, including greater development of sustainable hydropower."

Now in its seventh edition, the Hydropower Status Report shows electricity generation hit a record 4,306 terawatt hours (TWh) in 2019, the single greatest contribution from a renewable energy source in history, aligning with the outlook that renewables to surpass coal by 2025.

The annual rise of 2.5 per cent (106 TWh) in hydroelectric generation - equivalent to the entire electricity consumption of Pakistan - helped to avoid an estimated additional 80-100 million metric tonnes of greenhouse gases being emitted last year.

The report also highlights:

* Global hydropower installed capacity reached 1,308 gigawatts (GW) in 2019, as 50 countries completed greenfield and upgrade projects, including pumped storage and repowering old dams in some regions.

* A total of 15.6 GW in installed capacity was added in 2019, down on the 21.8 GW recorded in 2018. This represents a rise of 1.2 per cent, which is below the estimated 2.0 per cent growth rate required for the world to meet Paris Agreement carbon reduction targets.

* India has overtaken Japan as the fifth largest world hydropower producer with its total installed capacity now standing at over 50 GW. The countries with the highest increases in were Brazil (4.92 GW), China (4.17 GW) and Laos (1.89 GW).

* Hydropower's flexibility services have been in high demand during the Covid-19 crisis, even as global demand dipped 15% globally, while plant operations have been less affected due to the degree of automation in modern facilities.

* Hydropower developments have not been immune to economic impacts however, with the industry facing widespread uncertainty and liquidity shortages which have put financing and refinancing of some projects at risk.

In a companion policy paper, IHA sets out the immediate impacts of the crisis on the sector, noting how European responses to Covid-19 have accelerated the electricity system transition, as well as recommendations to assist governments and financial institutions and enhance hydropower's contribution to the recovery.

The recommendations include:

• Increasing the ambition of renewable energy and climate change targets which incorporate the role of sustainable hydropower development.
• Supporting sustainable hydropower through introducing appropriate financial measures such as tax incentives to ensure viable and shovel-ready projects can commence.
• Fast-tracking planning approvals to ensure the development and modernisation of hydropower projects can commence as soon as possible, in line with internationally recognised sustainability guidelines.
• Safeguarding investment by extending deadlines for concession agreements and other awarded projects.
• Given the increasing need for long-duration energy storage such as pumped storage, working with regulators and system operators to develop appropriate compensation mechanisms for hydropower's flexibility services.

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Air-gen Protein Nanowire Generator delivers clean energy by harvesting ambient humidity via Geobacter-derived conductive nanowires, generating continuous hydrovoltaic electricity through moisture gradients, electrodes, and proton diffusion for sustainable, low-waste power in diverse climates.

Key Points

A device using Geobacter protein nanowires to harvest humidity, producing continuous DC power via proton diffusion.

✅ 7 micrometer film between electrodes adsorbs water vapor.

✅ Output: ~0.5 V, 17 uA/cm2; stack units to scale power.

✅ Geobacter optimized via engineered E. coli for mass nanowires.

They found it buried in the muddy shores of the Potomac River more than three decades ago: a strange "sediment organism" that could do things nobody had ever seen before in bacteria.

This unusual microbe, belonging to the Geobacter genus, was first noted for its ability to produce magnetite in the absence of oxygen, but with time scientists found it could make other things too, like bacterial nanowires that conduct electricity.

For years, researchers have been trying to figure out ways to usefully exploit that natural gift, and they might have just hit pay-dirt with a device they're calling the Air-gen. According to the team, their device can create electricity out of… well, almost nothing, similar to power from falling snow reported elsewhere.

"We are literally making electricity out of thin air," says electrical engineer Jun Yao from the University of Massachusetts Amherst. "The Air-gen generates clean energy 24/7."

The claim may sound like an overstatement, but a new study by Yao and his team describes how the air-powered generator can indeed create electricity with nothing but the presence of air around it. It's all thanks to the electrically conductive protein nanowires produced by Geobacter (G. sulfurreducens, in this instance).

The Air-gen consists of a thin film of the protein nanowires measuring just 7 micrometres thick, positioned between two electrodes, referencing advances in near light-speed conduction in materials science, but also exposed to the air.

Because of that exposure, the nanowire film is able to adsorb water vapour that exists in the atmosphere, offering a contrast to legacy hydropower models, enabling the device to generate a continuous electrical current conducted between the two electrodes.

The team says the charge is likely created by a moisture gradient that creates a diffusion of protons in the nanowire material.

"This charge diffusion is expected to induce a counterbalancing electrical field or potential analogous to the resting membrane potential in biological systems," the authors explain in their study.

"A maintained moisture gradient, which is fundamentally different to anything seen in previous systems, explains the continuous voltage output from our nanowire device."

The discovery was made almost by accident, when Yao noticed devices he was experimenting with were conducting electricity seemingly all by themselves.

"I saw that when the nanowires were contacted with electrodes in a specific way the devices generated a current," Yao says.

"I found that exposure to atmospheric humidity was essential and that protein nanowires adsorbed water, producing a voltage gradient across the device."

Previous research has demonstrated hydrovoltaic power generation using other kinds of nanomaterials – such as graphene-based systems now under study – but those attempts have largely produced only short bursts of electricity, lasting perhaps only seconds.

By contrast, the Air-gen produces a sustained voltage of around 0.5 volts, with a current density of about 17 microamperes per square centimetre, and complementary fuel cell solutions can help keep batteries energized, with a current density of about 17 microamperes per square centimetre. That's not much energy, but the team says that connecting multiple devices could generate enough power to charge small devices like smartphones and other personal electronics – concepts akin to virtual power plants that aggregate distributed resources – all with no waste, and using nothing but ambient humidity (even in regions as dry as the Sahara Desert).

"The ultimate goal is to make large-scale systems," Yao says, explaining that future efforts could use the technology to power homes via nanowire incorporated into wall paint, supported by energy storage for microgrids to balance supply and demand.

"Once we get to an industrial scale for wire production, I fully expect that we can make large systems that will make a major contribution to sustainable energy production."

If there is a hold-up to realising this seemingly incredible potential, it's the limited amount of nanowire G. sulfurreducens produces.

Related research by one of the team – microbiologist Derek Lovley, who first identified Geobacter microbes back in the 1980s – could have a fix for that: genetically engineering other bugs, like E. coli, to perform the same trick in massive supplies.

"We turned E. coli into a protein nanowire factory," Lovley says.

"With this new scalable process, protein nanowire supply will no longer be a bottleneck to developing these applications."

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Clean Power Plan Rollback signals EPA's shift to inside-the-fence efficiency at coal plants, emphasizing heat-rate improvements over sector-wide decarbonization, renewables, natural gas switching, demand-side efficiency, and carbon capture under Clean Air Act constraints.

Key Points

A policy shift by the EPA to replace broad emissions rules with plant-level efficiency standards, limiting CO2 cuts.

✅ Inside-the-fence heat-rate improvements at coal units

✅ Potential CO2 cuts limited to about 6% per plant

✅ Alternatives: fuel switching, renewables, carbon capture

President Barack Obama’s signature plan to reduce carbon dioxide emissions from electrical generation took years to develop and touched every aspect of power production and use, from smokestacks to home insulation.

The Trump administration is moving to scrap that plan and has signaled that any alternative it might adopt would take a much less expansive approach, possibly just telling utilities to operate their plants more efficiently.

That’s a strategy environmentalists say is almost certain to fall short of what’s needed.

The Trump administration is making "a wholesale retreat from EPA’s legal, scientific and moral obligation to address the threats of climate change," said former Environmental Protection Agency head Gina McCarthy, the architect of Obama’s Clean Power Plan.

President Donald Trump promised to rip up the initiative, echoing an end to the 'war on coal' message from his campaign, which mandated that states change their overall power mix, displacing coal-fired electricity with that from wind, solar and natural gas. The EPA is about to make it official, arguing the prior administration violated the Clean Air Act by requiring those broad changes to the electricity sector, according to a draft obtained by Bloomberg.

Possible Replacements

Later, the agency will also ask the public to weigh in on possible replacements. The administration will ask whether the EPA can or should develop a replacement rule -- and, if so, what actions can be mandated at individual power plants, though some policymakers favor a clean electricity standard to drive broader decarbonization.

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Such changes -- such as adding automation or replacing worn turbine seals -- would yield at most a 6 percent gain in efficiency, along with a corresponding fall in greenhouse gas emissions, according to earlier modeling by the Environmental Protection Agency and other analysts. That compares to the 32 percent drop in emissions by 2030 under Obama’s Clean Power Plan.

"In these existing plants, there’s only so many places to look for savings," said John Larsen, a director of the Rhodium Group, a research firm. "There’s only so many opportunities within a big spinning machine like that."

EPA Administrator Scott Pruitt outlined such an "inside-the-fence-line" approach in 2014, later embodied in the Affordable Clean Energy rule that industry groups backed, when he served as Oklahoma’s attorney general. Under his blueprint, states would set emissions standards after a detailed unit-by-unit analysis, looking at what reductions are possible given "the engineering limits of each facility."

The EPA has not decided whether it will promulgate a new rule at all, though it has also proposed new pollution limits for coal and gas plants in separate actions. In a forthcoming advanced notice of proposed rulemaking, the EPA will ask "what inside-the-fence-line options are legal, feasible and appropriate," according to a document obtained by Bloomberg.

Increased efficiency at a coal plant -- known as heat-rate improvement -- translates into fewer carbon-dioxide emissions per unit of electric power generated.

Under Obama, the EPA envisioned utilities would make some straightforward efficiency improvements at coal-fired power plants as the first step to comply with the Clean Power Plan. But that was expected to coincide with bigger, broader changes -- such as using more cleaner-burning natural gas, adding more renewable power projects and simply encouraging customers to do a better job turning down their thermostats and turning off their lights.

Obama’s EPA didn’t ask utilities to wring every ounce of efficiency they could out of coal-fired power plants because they saw the other options as cheaper. A plant-specific approach "would be grossly insufficient to address the public health and environmental impacts from CO2 emissions," Obama’s EPA said.

That approach might yield modest emissions reductions and, in a perverse twist, might event have the opposite effect. If utilities make coal plants more efficient -- thereby driving down operating costs -- they also make them more competitive with natural gas and renewables, "so they might run more and pollute more," said Conrad Schneider, advocacy director for the Clean Air Task Force.  

In a competitive market, any improvement in emissions produced for each unit of energy could be overwhelmed by an increase in electrical output, and debates over changes to electricity pricing under Trump and Perry added further uncertainty.

"A very minor heat rate improvement program would very likely result in increased emissions," Schneider said. "It might be worse than nothing."

Power companies want to get as much electricity as possible from every pound of coal, so they already have an incentive to keep efficiency high, said Jeff Holmstead, a former assistant EPA administrator now at Bracewell LLP. But an EPA regulation known as “new source review” has discouraged some from making those changes, for fear of triggering other pollution-control requirements, he said.

"If EPA’s replacement rule allows companies to improve efficiency without triggering new source review, it would make a real difference in terms of reducing carbon-dioxide emissions," Holmstead said.

Modest Impact

A plant-specific approach doesn’t have to mean modest impact.

"If you’re thinking about what can be done at the power plants by themselves, you don’t stop at efficiency tune-ups," said David Doniger, director of the Natural Resources Defense Council’s climate and clean air program. "You look at things like switching to natural gas or installing carbon capture and storage."

Requirements that facilities use carbon capture technology or swap in natural gas for coal could actually come close to hitting the same goals as in Obama’s Clean Power Plan -- if not go even further, Schneider said. They just would cost more.

The benefit of the Clean Power Plan "is that it enabled states to create programs and enabled companies to find a reduction strategy that was the most efficient and made the most sense for their own content," said Kathryn Zyla, deputy director of the Georgetown Climate Center. "And that flexibility was really important for the states and companies."

Some utilities, including Houston-based Calpine Corp., PG&E Corp. and Dominion Resources Inc., backed the Obama-era approach. And they are still pushing the Trump administration to be creative now.

"The Clean Power Plan achieved a thoughtful, balanced approach that gave companies and states considerable flexibility on how best to pursue that goal," said Melissa Lavinson, vice president of federal affairs and policy for PG&E’s Pacific Gas and Electric utility. “We look forward to working with the administration to devise an alternative plan for decarbonizing the U.S. economy."

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Solar Plus Storage is accelerating across utilities and microgrids, pairing rooftop solar with lithium-ion batteries to enhance grid resilience, reduce peak costs, prevent blackouts, and leverage tax credits amid falling prices and decarbonization goals.

Key Points

Solar Plus Storage combines solar generation with batteries to shift load, boost reliability, and cut energy costs.

✅ Cuts peak demand charges and enhances blackout resilience

✅ Falling battery and solar costs drive nationwide utility adoption

✅ Enables microgrids and grid services like frequency regulation

Todd Karin was prepared when California’s largest utility shut off power to millions of people to avoid the risk of wildfires last month. He’s got rooftop solar panels connected to a single Tesla Powerwall in his rural home near Fairfield, California. “We had backup power the whole time,” Karin says. “We ran the fridge and watched movies.”

Californians worried about an insecure energy future are increasingly looking to this kind of solution. Karin, a 31-year-old postdoctoral fellow at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, spent just under $4,000 for his battery by taking advantage of tax credits. He's also saving money by discharging the battery on weekday evenings, when energy is more expensive during peak demand periods. He expects to save around $1,500 over the 10 years the battery is under warranty.

The economics don’t yet work for every household, but the green-power combo of solar panels plus batteries is popping up on a much bigger scale in some unexpected places. Owners of a rice processing plant in Arkansas are building a system to generate 26 megawatts of solar power and store another 40 MW. The plant will cut its power bill by a third, and owners say they will pass the savings to local rice growers. New York’s JFK Airport is installing solar plus storage to reduce its power load by 10 percent, while Pittsburgh International Airport is building a 20-MW solar and natural gas microgrid to keep it independent from the local utility. Officials at both airports are worried about recent power shutdowns due to weather and overload-related blackouts.

And residents of the tiny northern Missouri town of Green City (pop. 608) are getting 2.5 MW of solar plus four hours of battery storage from the state’s public utility next year. The solar power won’t go directly to townspeople, but instead will back up the town’s substation, reducing the risk of a potential shutdown. It’s part of a $68 million project to improve the reliability of remote substations far from electric generating stations.

“It’s a pretty big deal for us,” says Chad Raley, who manages technology and renewables at Ameren, a Missouri utility that is building three rural solar-plus-storage projects to better manage the flow of electricity across the local grid. “It gives us so much flexibility with renewable generation. We can’t control the sun or clouds or wind, but we can have battery storage.”

The first solar-plus-storage installations started about a decade ago on a small scale in sunny states like California, Hawaii, and Arizona. Now they’re spreading across the country, driven by falling prices of both solar panels and lithium-ion batteries the size of a shipping container imported from both China and South Korea, with wind, solar, and batteries making up most of the utility-scale pipeline nationwide. These countries have ramped up production efficiencies and lowered labor costs, leaving many US manufacturers in the dust. In fact, the price of building a comparable solar-plus-storage generating facility is now cheaper than operating a coal-fired power plant, industry officials say. In certain circumstances, the cost is equal to some natural gas plants.

“This is not just a California, New York, Massachusetts thing,” says Kelly Speakes-Backman, CEO of the Energy Storage Association, an industry group in Washington. She says more than 30 states have renewable storage on the grid. Utilities have proposed and states have approved 7 gigawatts to be installed by 2030, and most new storage will be paired with solar across the US.

Speakes-Backman estimates the unit cost of electricity produced from a solar-plus-storage system will drop 10 to 15 percent each year through 2024, supporting record growth in solar and storage investments. “If you have the option of putting out a polluting or non-polluting generating source at the same price, what are you going to pick?” says Speakes-Backman.

She notes that PJM, a large Mid-Atlantic wholesale grid operator, announced it will deploy battery storage to help smooth out fluctuating power from two wind farms it operates. “When the grid fluctuates, storage can react to it quickly and can level out the supply,” she says. In the Midwest, grid-level battery storage is also being used to absorb extra wind power. Batteries hold onto the wind and put it back onto the grid when people need it.

While the solar-plus-storage trend isn’t yet putting a huge dent in our fossil fuel use, according to Paul Denholm, an energy analyst at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory in Golden, Colorado, it is a good beginning and has the side effect of cutting air pollution. By 2021, solar and other renewable energy sources will overtake coal as a source of energy, and the US is moving toward 30% electricity from wind and solar, according to a new report by the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis, a nonprofit think tank based in Cleveland.

That’s a glimmer of hope in a somewhat dreary week of news on carbon emissions. A new United Nations report released this week finds that the planet is on track to warm by 3.9 degrees Celsius (7 Fahrenheit) by 2100 unless drastic cuts are made by phasing out gas-powered cars, eliminating new coal-fired power plants, and changing how we grow and manage land, and scientists are working to improve solar and wind power to limit climate change as well.

Energy-related greenhouse gas emissions in the US rose 2.7 percent in 2018 after several years of decline. The Trump administration has rolled back climate policies from the Obama years, including withdrawing from the Paris climate accords.

There may be hope from green power initiatives outside the Beltway, though, and from federal proposals like a tenfold increase in US solar that could remake the electricity system. Arizona plans to boost solar-plus-storage from today’s 6 MW to a whopping 850 MW by 2025, more than the entire capacity of large-scale batteries in the US today. And some folks might be cheering the closing of the West’s biggest coal-fired power plant, the 2.25-gigawatt Navajo Generating Station, in Arizona, which had spewed soot and carbon dioxide over the region for 45 years until last week. The closure might help the planet and clear the hazy smog over the Grand Canyon.

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Small Modular Reactors in Canada are advancing through provincial collaboration, offering nuclear energy, clean power and carbon reductions for grids, remote communities, and mines, with factory-built modules, regulatory roadmaps, and pre-licensing by the nuclear regulator.

Key Points

Compact, factory-built nuclear units for clean power, cutting carbon for grids, remote communities, and industry.

✅ Provinces: Ontario, Saskatchewan, New Brunswick collaborate

✅ Targets coal replacement, carbon cuts, clean baseload power

✅ Modular, factory-made units; 5-10 year deployment horizon

The premiers of Ontario, Saskatchewan and New Brunswick have committed to collaborate on developing nuclear reactor technology in Canada. 

Doug Ford, Scott Moe and Blaine Higgs made the announcement and signed a memorandum of understanding on Sunday in advance of a meeting of all the premiers. 

They will be working on the research, development and building of small modular reactors as a way to help their individual provinces reduce carbon emissions and move away from non-renewable energy sources like coal. 

Small modular reactors are easy to construct, are safer than large reactors and are regarded as cleaner energy than coal, the premiers say. They can be small enough to fit in a school gym. 

SMRs are actually not very close to entering operation in Canada, though Ontario broke ground on its first SMR at Darlington recently, signaling early progress. Natural Resources Canada released an "SMR roadmap" last year, with a series of recommendations about regulation readiness and waste management for SMRs.

In Canada, about a dozen companies are currently in pre-licensing with the Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission, which is reviewing their designs.

"Canadians working together, like we are here today, from coast to coast, can play an even larger role in addressing climate change in Canada and around the world," Moe said.  

Canada's Paris targets are to lower total emissions 30 per cent below 2005 levels by 2030, and nuclear's role in climate goals has been emphasized by the federal minister in recent remarks. Moe says the reactors would help Saskatchewan reach a 70 per cent reduction by that year.

The provinces' three energy ministries will meet in the new year to discuss how to move forward and by the fall a fully-fledged strategy for the reactors is expected to be ready.

However, don't expect to see them popping up in a nearby field anytime soon. It's estimated it will take five to 10 years before they're built. 

Ford lauds economic possibilities
The provincial leaders said it could be an opportunity for economic growth, estimating the Canadian market for this energy at $10 billion and the global market at $150 billion.

Ford called it an "opportunity for Canada to be a true leader." At a time when Ottawa and the provinces are at odds, Higgs said it's the perfect time to show unity. 

"It's showing how provinces come together on issues of the future." 

P.E.I. premier predicts unity at Toronto premiers' meeting
No other premiers have signed on to the deal at this point, but Ford said all are welcome and "the more, the merrier."

But developing new energy technologies is a daunting task. Higgs admitted the project will need national support of some kind, though he didn't specify what. The agreement signed by the premiers is also not binding. 

About 8.6 per cent of Canada's electricity comes from coal-fired generation. In New Brunswick that figure is much higher — 15.8 per cent — and New Brunswick's small-nuclear debate has intensified as New Brunswick Premier Blaine Higgs has said he worries about his province's energy producers being hit by the federal carbon tax.

Ontario has no coal-fired power plants, and OPG's SMR commitment aligns with its clean electricity strategy today. In Saskatchewan, burning coal generates 46.6 per cent of the province's electricity.

How would it work?
The federal government describes small modular reactors (SMRs) as the "next wave of innovation" in nuclear energy technology, and collaborations like the OPG and TVA partnership are advancing development efforts, and an "important technology opportunity for Canada."

Traditional nuclear reactors used in Canada typically generate about 800 megawatts of electricity, and Ontario is exploring new large-scale nuclear plants alongside SMRs, or enough to power about 600,000 homes at once (assuming that 1 megawatt can power about 750 homes).

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the UN organization for nuclear co-operation, considers a nuclear reactor to be "small" if it generates under 300 megawatts.

Designs for small reactors ranging from just 3 megawatts to 300 megawatts have been submitted to Canada's nuclear regulator, the Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission, for review as part of a pre-licensing process, while plans for four SMRs at Darlington outline a potential build-out pathway that regulators will assess.

Ford rallying premiers to call for large increase in federal health transfers
Such reactors are considered "modular" because they're designed to work either independently or as modules in a bigger complex (as is already the case with traditional, larger reactors at most Canadian nuclear power plants). A power plant could be expanded incrementally by adding additional modules.

Modules are generally designed to be small enough to make in a factory and be transported easily — for example, via a standard shipping container.

In Canada, there are three main areas where SMRs could be used:

Traditional, on-grid power generation, especially in provinces looking for zero-emissions replacements for CO2-emitting coal plants.
Remote communities that currently rely on polluting diesel generation.
Resource extraction sites, such as mining and oil and gas.
 

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Ontario Electricity Supply Gap threatens growth as demand from EVs, heat pumps, industry, and greenhouses surges, pressuring the grid and IESO to add nuclear, renewables, storage, transmission, and imports while meeting net-zero goals.

Key Points

The mismatch as Ontario's electricity demand outpaces supply, driven by electrification, EVs, and industrial growth.

✅ Demand growth from EVs, heat pumps, and electrified industry

✅ Capacity loss from Pickering retirement and Darlington refurb

✅ Options: SMRs, renewables, storage, conservation, imports

Ontario electricity demand is forecast to soon outstrip supply as it confronts a shortage in the coming years, a problem that needs attention in the upcoming provincial election.

Forecasters say Ontario will need to double its power supply by 2050 as industries ramp up demand for low-emission clean power options and consumers switch to electric vehicles and space heating. But while the Ford government has made a flurry of recent energy announcements, including a hydrogen project at Niagara Falls and an interprovincial agreement on small nuclear reactors, it has not laid out how it intends to bulk up the province’s power supply.

“Ontario is entering a period of widening electricity shortfalls,” says the Ontario Chamber of Commerce. “Having a plan to address those shortfalls is essential to ensure businesses can continue investing and growing in Ontario with confidence.”

The supply and demand mismatch is coming because of brisk economic growth combined with increasing electrification to balance demand and emissions and meet Canada’s goal to reduce CO2 emissions by 40 per cent by 2030 and to net-zero by 2050.

Hamilton’s ArcelorMittal Dofasco and Algoma Steel in Sault Ste. Marie are leaders on this transformation. They plan to replace their blast furnaces and basic oxygen furnaces later this decade with electric arc furnaces (EAFs), reducing annual CO2 emissions by three million tonnes each.

Dofasco, which operates an EAF that is already the single largest electricity user in Ontario, plans to build a second EAF and a gas-fired ironmaking furnace, which can also be powered with zero-carbon hydrogen produced from electricity, once it becomes available.

Other new projects in the agriculture, mining and manufacturing sectors are also expected to be big power users, including the recently announced $5 billion Stellantis-LG electric vehicle battery plant in Windsor. Five new transmission lines will be built to service the plant and the burgeoning greenhouse industry in southwestern Ontario. The greenhouses alone will require enough additional electricity to power a city the size of Ottawa.

On top of these demands, growing numbers of Ontario drivers are expected to switch to electric vehicles and many homeowners and business owners are expected to convert from gas heating to heat pumps and electric heating.

Ontario is recognized as one of the cleanest electricity systems in the world, with over 90 per cent of its capacity from low-emission nuclear, hydro, wind and other renewable generation. Only nine per cent comes from CO2-emitting gas plants. But that’s about to get dirtier according to analysts.

Annual electricity demand is expected to grow from 140 terawatt hours (a terawatt hour is one trillion watts for one hour) currently to about 200 terawatt hours in 2042, according to the Independent Electricity System Operator, the agency that manages Ontario’s grid.

Demand is expected to outstrip currently contracted supply in 2026, reaching a growing supply gap of about 80 terawatt hours by 2042. A big part of this gap is due to the scheduled retirement of the Pickering nuclear station in 2025 and the current refurbishment of the Darlington nuclear station reactors. While the IESO doesn’t expect blackouts or brownouts, it forecasts the province will need to sharply increase expensive power imports and triple the amount of CO2-polluting gas-fired generation.

Without cleaner, lower-cost alternatives, this will mean “a vastly dirtier and more expensive electricity system,” York University researchers Mark Winfield and Collen Kaiser said in a recent commentary.

The party that wins the provincial election will have to make hard decisions on renewable energy, including new wind and solar projects, energy conservation, battery storage, new hydro plants, small nuclear reactors, gas generation and power imports from the U.S. and Quebec. In addition, the federal government is pressing the provinces to meet a new net-zero clean electricity standard by 2035. These decisions will have huge impact on Ontario’s future, with greening the grid costs highlighted in some reports as potentially very high.

With so much at stake, Ontario’s political parties need to tell voters during the upcoming campaign how they would address these enormous challenges.

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