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COVID-19 Impact on U.S. Electricity Consumption shows commercial and industrial demand dropped as residential use rose, with flattened peak loads, weekday-weekend convergence, Texas hourly data, and energy demand as a real-time economic indicator.

Key Points

It reduced commercial and industrial demand while raising residential use, shifting peaks and weekday patterns.

✅ Commercial electricity down 12%; industrial down 14% in Q2 2020

✅ Residential use up 10% amid work-from-home and lockdowns

✅ Peaks flattened; weekday-weekend loads converged in Texas

This is an important turning point for the United States. We have a long road ahead. But one of the reasons I’m optimistic about Biden-Harris is that we will once again have an administration that believes in science.

To embrace this return to science, I want to write today about a fascinating new working paper by Tufts economist Steve Cicala.

Professor Cicala has been studying the effect of Covid on electricity consumption since back in March, when the Wall Street Journal picked up his work documenting an 18% decrease in electricity consumption in Italy.

The new work, focused on the United States, is particularly compelling because it uses data that allows him to distinguish between residential, commercial, and industrial sectors, against a backdrop of declining U.S. electricity sales over recent years.

Without further ado, here are four facts he uncovers about Covid and U.S. electricity demand during COVID-19 and consumption.

Fact #1: Firms Are Using Less
U.S. commercial electricity consumption fell 12% during the second quarter of 2020. U.S. industrial electricity consumption fell 14% over the same period.

This makes sense. The second quarter was by some measures, the worst quarter for the U.S. economy in over 145 years!

Economic activity shrank. Schools closed. Offices closed. Factories closed. Restaurants closed. Malls closed. Even health care offices closed as patients delayed going to the dentist and other routine care. All this means less heating and cooling, less lighting, less refrigeration, less power for computers and other office equipment, less everything.

The decrease in the industrial sector is a little more surprising. My impression had been that the industrial sector had not fallen as far as commercial, but amid broader disruptions in coal and nuclear power that strained parts of the energy economy, the patterns for both sectors are quite similar with the decline peaking in May and then partially rebounding by July. The paper also shows that areas with higher unemployment rates experienced larger declines in both sectors.

Fact #2: Households Are Using More
While firms are using less, households are using more. U.S. residential electricity consumption increased 10% during the second quarter of 2020. Consumption surged during March, April, and May, a reflection of the lockdown lifestyle many adopted, and then leveled off in June and July – with much less of the rebound observed on the commercial/industrial side.

This pattern makes sense, too. In Professor Cicala’s words, “people are spending an inordinate amount of time at home”. Many of us switched over to working from home almost immediately, and haven’t looked back. This means more air conditioning, more running the dishwasher, more CNN (especially last week), more Zoom, and so on.

The paper also examines the correlates of the decline. Areas in the U.S. where more people can work from home experienced larger increases. Unemployment rates, however, are almost completely uncorrelated with the increase.

Fact #3: Firms are Less Peaky
The paper next turns to a novel dataset from Texas, where Texas grid reliability is under active discussion, that makes it possible to measure hourly electricity consumption by sector.

As the figure above illustrates, the biggest declines in commercial/industrial electricity consumption have occurred Monday through Friday between 9AM and 5PM.

The dashed line shows the pattern during 2019. Notice the large spikes in electricity consumption during business hours. The solid line shows the pattern during 2020. Much smaller spikes during business hours.

Fact #4: Everyday is Like Sunday
Finally, we have what I would like to nominate as the “Energy Figure of the Year”.

Again, start with the pattern for 2019, reflected by the dashed line. Prior to Covid, Texas households used a lot more electricity on Saturdays and Sundays.

Then along comes Covid, and turned every day into the weekend. Residential electricity consumption in Texas during business hours Monday-Friday is up 16%(!).

In the pattern for 2020, it isn’t easy to distinguish weekends from weekdays. If you feel like weekdays and weekends are becoming a big blur – you are not alone.

Conclusion
Researchers are increasingly thinking about electricity consumption as a real-time indicator of economic activity, even as flat electricity demand complicates utility planning and investment. This is an intriguing idea, but Professor Cicala’s new paper shows that it is important to look sector-by-sector.

While commercial and industrial consumption indeed seem to measure the strength of an economy, residential consumption has been sharply countercylical – increasing exactly when people are not at work and not at school.

These large changes in behavior are specific to the pandemic. Still, with the increased blurring of home and non-home activities we may look back on 2020 as a key turning point in how we think about these three sectors of the economy.

More broadly, Professor Cicala’s paper highlights the value of social science research. We need facts, data, and yes, science, if we are to understand the economy and craft effective policies on energy insecurity and shut-offs as well.

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5G Energy Costs highlight base station power consumption, carrier electricity bills, and carbon emissions in China, while advances in energy efficiency, sleep modes, and cooling systems aim to optimize low-latency networks and reduce operational expenses.

Key Points

5G energy costs rise with power-hungry base stations, yet per-bit efficiency and sleep modes help cut bills.

✅ 5G base stations use ~4x 4G electricity

✅ Per-bit 5G energy efficiency is ~4x better than 4G

✅ Sleep modes and advanced cooling reduce OPEX and emissions

As 5G developers look desperately for a "killer app" to prove the usefulness of the superfast wireless technology, mobile carriers in China are complaining about the high energy cost of 5G signal towers.

And the situation is, according to experts, more complicated than many have thought.

The costly 5G

5G technology can be 10 or more times faster than 4G and significantly more responsive to users' input, but the speed comes at a cost.

A 5G base station consumes "four times more electricity" than its 4G counterpart, said Ding Haiyu, head of wireless and terminals at the China Mobile Research Institute, during a symposium on 5G and carbon neutrality in Beijing, a key focus for countries pursuing a net-zero grid by 2050 worldwide.

But concerning each bit of data transmitted, 5G is four times more energy-efficient than 4G, according to Ding.

This means that mobile carriers should fully occupy their 5G network for as long time as possible, but that can be hard at this moment, as many people are still holding 4G smartphones.

"When the 5G stations are running without people using them, they are really electricity guzzlers," said Zhu Qingfeng, head of power supply design at China Information Technology Designing and Consulting Institute Co., Ltd., who represents China Unicom at the symposium. "Each of the three telecom carrier giants are emitting about ten million tonnes of carbon in the air."

"We have to shut down some 5G base stations at night to reduce emission," he added.

Some utilities are testing fuel cell solutions to keep backup batteries charged much longer, supporting network resilience at lower emissions.

A representative from China Telecom said electricity bills of the nationwide carrier reached a new high of 100 billion yuan (about $15 billion) a year, mirroring the power challenges for utilities as data center demand booms elsewhere.

Getting better

While admitting the excessive cost of 5G, experts at the symposium also agreed that the situation is improving, even as climate pressures on the grid continue to mount.

Ding listed a series of recent technologies that is helping reduce the energy use of 5G, including chips of better process, automatic sleeping and wake-up of base stations and liquid nitrogen-based cooling system, and superconducting cables as part of ongoing upgrades.

"We are aiming at halving the 5G electricity cost to only two times of 4G in two years," Ding said.

Experts also discussed the possibility of making use of 5G's low latency features to help monitoring the electricity grid, thus making the digital grid smarter and more cost effective.

G's energy cost is seen as a hot topic for the incoming World 5G Convention in Beijing in early August, alongside smart grid transformation themes. Stay tuned to CGTN Digital as we bring you the latest news about the convention and 5G technology.
 

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EU Renewable Power Overtakes Fossil Fuels, reflecting a greener energy mix as wind, solar, and hydro expand, cutting CO2 emissions and curbing coal while negative prices rise amid pandemic-driven demand drops.

Key Points

A milestone as renewables surpass fossil power in the EU, driven by wind, solar, hydro growth and pandemic demand.

✅ 40% renewables vs 34% fossil in H1 across 27 EU states

✅ Wind, solar, hydro rose; coal generation fell 32% year-on-year

✅ Lower demand, carbon prices, grid priority boosted clean output

Renewable power for the first time contributed a bigger share in the European generation mix than fossil fuels, as described in Europe's green surge as the fallout from the pandemic cut energy demand.

About 40 percent of the electricity in the first half in the 27 EU countries came from renewable sources, exceeding the global renewables share reported elsewhere, compared with 34 percent from plants burning fossil fuels, according to environmental group Ember in London. As a result, carbon dioxide emissions from the power sector fell 23 percent.

The rise is significant and encouraging for law makers as Europe prepares to spend billions of euros to recover from the virus, with wind power investments underscoring the momentum, and set the bloc on track to neutralize its carbon footprint by the middle of the century.

“This marks a symbolic moment ​in the transition of Europe’s electricity sector,” said Dave Jones, an electricity analyst at Ember. “For countries like Poland and Czech Republic grappling with how to get off coal, there is now a clear way out.”

While power demand slumped, output from wind and solar farms increased, reflecting global wind and solar gains, because more plants came online in breezy and sunny weather. At the same time, wet conditions boosted hydro power in Iberia and the Nordic markets.

Those conditions helped renewables become a rare bright spot throughout the economic tumult this year. In many areas, renewable sources of electricity have priority to the grid, meaning they could keep growing even as demand shrank and other power plants were turned off.

Electricity demand in the EU fell 7 percent overall. Fossil-fuel power generation plunged 18 percent in the first half compared with a year earlier. Renewable generation grew by 11 percent, according to Ember.

Coal was by far the biggest loser in 2020. It’s one of the most-polluting sources of power and its share is slumping in Europe as the price of carbon increases, with renewables surpassing coal in the US illustrating the broader shift, and governments move to cut emissions. Power from coal fell 32 percent across the EU.

Despite the economics, the decision to shut off coal for good will come down to political agreements between producers and governments, while reducing reliance on Russian energy reshapes policy debates.

One consequence of the jump in renewables is that negative prices have increased, as solar is reshaping prices in Northern Europe in similar ways. On particularly windy or sunny days when there isn’t much demand, the grid can be flooded with power. That’s leading wind farms to be shut off and customers to be paid to consume electricity.

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Hydro One-Avista Merger outlines a utility acquisition shaped by Washington regulators, Colstrip coal plant depreciation, and plans for renewables, clean energy, and emissions cuts, while Montana reviews implications for jobs, ratepayers, and a 2027 closure.

Key Points

A utility deal setting Colstrip depreciation and renewables, without committing to an early coal plant closure.

✅ Washington sets 2027 depreciation for Colstrip units

✅ Montana reviews jobs, ratepayer impacts, community fund

✅ Avista seeks renewables; no binding shutdown commitment

The Washington power company Hydro One is buying will be ready to close its huge coal-fired generating station ahead of schedule, thanks to conditions put on the corporate merger by state regulators there.

Not that we actually plan to do that, the company is telling other regulators in Montana, where coal unit retirements are under debate, the huge coal-fired generating station in question employs hundreds of people. We’ll be in the coal business for a good long time yet.

Hydro One, in which the Ontario government now owns a big minority stake, is still working on its purchase of Avista, a private power utility based in Spokane. The $6.7-billion deal, which Hydro One announced in July, includes a 15 per cent share in two of the four generating units in a coal plant in Colstrip, Montana, one of the biggest in the western United States. Avista gets most of its electricity from hydro dams and gas but uses the Colstrip plant when demand for power is high and water levels at its dams are low.

#google#

Colstrip’s a town of fewer than 2,500 people whose industries are the power plant and the open-pit mines that feed it about 10 million tonnes of coal a year. Two of Colstrip’s generators, older ones Avista doesn’t have any stake in, are closing in 2022. The other two will be all that keep the town in business.

In Washington, they don’t like the coal plant and its pollution. In Montana, the future of Colstrip is a much bigger concern. The companies have to satisfy regulators in both places that letting Hydro One buy Avista is in the public interest.

Ontario proudly closed the last of our coal plants in 2014 and outlawed new ones as environmental menaces, and Alberta's coal phase-out is now slated to finish by 2023. When Hydro One said it was buying Avista, which makes about $100 million in profit a year, Premier Kathleen Wynne said she hoped Ontario’s “value system” would spread to Avista’s operations.

The settlement is “an important step towards bringing together two historic companies,” Hydro One’s chief executive Mayo Schmidt said in announcing it.

The deal has approval from the Washington Utilities and Transportation Commission staff but is subject to a vote by the group’s three commissioners. It doesn’t commit Avista to closing anything at Colstrip or selling its share. But Avista and Hydro One will budget as if the Colstrip coal burners will close in 2027, instead of running into the 2040s as their owners had once planned, a timeline that echoes debates over the San Juan Generating Station in New Mexico.

In accounting terms, they’ll depreciate the value of their share of the plant to zero over the next nine years, reflecting what they say is the end of the plant’s “useful life.” Another of Colstrip’s owners, Puget Sound Energy, has previously agreed with Washington regulators that it’ll budget for a Colstrip closure in 2027 as well.

Avista and Hydro One will look for sources of 50 megawatts of renewable electricity, including independent power projects where feasible, in the next four years and another 90 megawatts to supplement Avista’s supply once the Colstrip plant eventually closes, they promise in Washington. They’ll put $3 million into a “community transition fund” for Colstrip.

The money will come from the companies’ profits and cash, the agreement says. “Hydro One will not seek cost recovery for such funds from ratepayers in Ontario,” it says specifically.

“Ontario has always been a global leader in the transition away from dirty coal power and towards clean energy,” said Doug Howell, an anti-coal campaigner with the Sierra Club, which is a party to the agreement. “This settlement continues that tradition, paving the way for the closure of the largest single source of climate pollution in the American West by 2027, if not earlier.”

Montanans aren’t as thrilled. That state has its own public services commission, doing its own examination of the corporate merger, which has asked Hydro One and Avista to explain in detail why they want to write off the value of the Colstrip burners early. The City of Colstrip has filed a petition saying it wants in on Montana hearings because “the potential closure of (Avista’s units) would be devastating to our community.”

Don’t get too worked up, an Avista vice-president urged the Montana commission just before Easter.

“Just because an asset is depreciated does not mean that one would otherwise remove that asset from service if the asset is still performing as intended,” Jason Thackston testified in a session that dealt only with what the deal with Washington state would mean to Colstrip. We’re talking strictly about an accounting manoeuvre, not an operational commitment.

Six joint owners will have to agree to close the Colstrip generators and there’s “no other tacit understanding or unstated agreement” to do that, he said.

Besides Washington and Montana, state regulators in Idaho, including those overseeing the Idaho Power settlement process, Alaska and Oregon and multiple federal authorities have to sign off on the deal before it can happen. Hydro One hopes it’ll be done in the second half of this year.

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Philippines-Canada Indo-Pacific Partnership strengthens ASEAN cooperation, maritime security, and South China Sea diplomacy, balancing U.S.-China rivalry through a rules-based order, trade diversification, and middle-power engagement to foster regional stability and sustainable growth.

Key Points

A strategic pact to balance U.S.-China rivalry, back ASEAN, and advance maritime security and a rules-based order

✅ Prioritizes ASEAN-led cooperation and regional diplomacy

✅ Supports maritime security and South China Sea stability

✅ Diversifies trade, infrastructure, energy, and education ties

The Philippines finds itself caught in a geopolitical tug-of-war between the United States and China, two superpowers with competing interests in the Indo-Pacific region. To navigate this complex situation, the Philippines is seeking closer ties with Canada, a middle power with a strong focus on diplomacy and regional cooperation and a deepening U.S.-Canada energy and minerals partnership that reinforces shared strategic interests.

The Philippines, like many Southeast Asian nations, desires peace and stability for continued economic growth. However, the intensifying rivalry between the U.S. and China threatens to disrupt this. Territorial disputes in the South China Sea, where China claims vast swathes of waters contested by the Philippines, are a major point of contention. The Philippines has a long-standing alliance with the U.S., whose current administration is viewed as better for Canada's energy sector by some observers, but it also has growing economic ties with China. This delicate balancing act is becoming increasingly difficult.

This is where Canada enters the picture. The Philippines sees Canada as a potential bridge between the two superpowers. Foreign Affairs Secretary Enrique Manalo emphasizes that the future of the Indo-Pacific shouldn't be dictated by "great power rivalry." Canada, with its emphasis on peaceful solutions and its strong relationships with both the U.S. and China, despite electricity exports at risk from periodic trade tensions, presents a welcome alternative.

There are several reasons why the Philippines views Canada as a natural partner. First, Canada's Indo-Pacific strategy prioritizes the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), a regional bloc that includes the Philippines, and reflects trade policy debates in Ottawa where Canadians support tariffs on energy and minerals. This focus on regional cooperation aligns with the Philippines' desire for a united ASEAN voice.

Second, Canada offers the Philippines opportunities for economic diversification. While China is a significant trading partner, the Philippines wants to lessen its dependence on any single power. Canada's expertise in areas like agriculture, infrastructure, education, and renewable energy aligns with the Philippines' clean energy commitment and development goals.

Third, Canada's experience in peacekeeping and maritime security can be valuable to the Philippines. The Philippines faces challenges in the South China Sea, and Canada's commitment to a rules-based international order resonates with the Philippines' desire for peaceful resolution of territorial disputes.

Canada, for its part, sees the Philippines as a strategically important partner in the Indo-Pacific. A stronger Philippines contributes to a more stable region, which aligns with Canada's own interests. Additionally, closer ties with the Philippines open doors for increased Canadian trade and investment in Southeast Asia, including in critical minerals supply chains and energy projects.

The Philippines' pursuit of a middle ground between the U.S. and China is not without its challenges. Balancing strong relationships with both powers requires careful diplomacy, even as tariff threats boost support for Canadian energy projects domestically. However, Canada's emergence as a potential partner offers the Philippines a much-needed counterweight and a path towards regional stability and economic prosperity.

By working together, Canada and the Philippines can promote peaceful solutions, strengthen regional cooperation, and ensure that the Indo-Pacific remains a place of opportunity for all nations, not just superpowers.

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European Solar Inverter Demand surges as photovoltaics and residential solar expand during the clean energy transition, driven by high natural gas prices; Germany leads, boosting Enphase and SolarEdge sales for rooftop systems and grid-tied installations.

Key Points

Rising European need for solar inverters, fueled by residential PV growth, high energy costs, and clean energy policies.

✅ Germany leads EU rooftop PV installations

✅ Enphase and SolarEdge see revenue growth

✅ High gas prices and policies spur adoption

Solar equipment makers are expected to post higher quarterly profit, benefiting from strong demand in Europe for critical components that convert energy from the sun into electricity, amid record renewable momentum worldwide.

The continent is emerging as a major market for solar firms as it looks to reduce its dependence on the Russian energy supply and accelerate its clean energy transition, with solar already reshaping power prices in Northern Europe across the region, brightening up businesses of companies such as Enphase Energy (ENPH.O) and SolarEdge Technologies (SEDG.O), which make solar inverters.

Wall Street expects Enphase and SolarEdge to post a combined adjusted net income of $323.8 million for the April-June quarter, a 56.7% jump from a year earlier, even as demand growth slows in the United States.

The energy crisis in Europe is not as acute as last year when Western sanctions on Russia severely crimped supplies, but prices of natural gas and electricity continue to be much higher than in the United States, Raymond James analyst Pavel Molchanov said.

As a result, demand for residential solar keeps growing at a strong pace in the region, with Germany being one of the top markets and solar adoption in Poland also accelerating in recent years across the region.

About 159,000 residential solar systems became operational in the first quarter in Germany amid a solar power boost that reflects policy and demand, a 146% rise from a year earlier, according to BSW solar power association.

Adoption of solar is also helping European homeowners have greater control over their energy costs as fossil fuel prices tend to be more volatile, Morningstar analyst Brett Castelli said.

SolarEdge, which has a bigger exposure to Europe than Enphase, said its first-quarter revenue from the continent more than doubled compared with last year.

In comparison, growth in the United States has been tepid due to lukewarm demand in states like Texas and Arizona where cheaper electricity prices make the economics of residential solar less attractive, even though solar is now cheaper than gas in parts of the U.S. market.

Higher interest rates following the U.S. Federal Reserve's recent actions to tame inflation are also weighing on demand, even as power outage risks rise across the United States.

Analysts also expect weakness in California where a new metering reform reduces the money credited to rooftop solar owners for sending excess power into the grid, underscoring how policy shifts can reshape the sector. The sunshine state accounts for nearly a third of the U.S. residential solar market.

Enphase will report its results on Thursday after the bell, while SolarEdge will release its second-quarter numbers on Aug. 1.

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