Western administrator approves RTO membership

Hydro One investment risk reflects Ontario government influence, board shakeup, Avista acquisition uncertainty, regulatory hearings, dividend growth prospects, and utility M&A moves in Peterborough, with stock volatility since the 2015 IPO.

Key Points

Hydro One investment risk stems from political control, governance turnover, regulatory outcomes, and uncertain M&A.

✅ Ontario retains near-50% stake, affecting autonomy and policy risk

✅ Board overhaul and CEO exit create governance uncertainty

✅ Avista deal, OEB hearings, local utility M&A drive outcomes

Hydro One may be only half-owned by the province on Ontario but that’s enough to cause uncertainty about the company’s future, thus making for an investment risk, says Douglas Kee of Leon Frazer & Associates.

Since its IPO in November of 2015, Hydro One has seen its share of ups and downs, including a Q2 profit decline earlier this year, mostly downs at this point. Currently trading at $19.87, the stock has lost 11 per cent of its value in 2018 and 12 per cent over the last 12 months, despite a one-time gain boosting Q2 profit that followed a court ruling.

This year has been a turbulent one, to say the least, as newly elected Ontario premier Doug Ford made good this summer on his campaign promise re Hydro One by forcing the resignation of the company’s 14-person board of directors along with the retirement of its chief executive, an event that saw Hydro One shares fall amid the turmoil. An interim CEO has been found and a new 10-person board and chairman put in place, but Kee says it’s unclear what impact the shakeup will ultimately have, other than delaying a promising-looking deal to purchase US utility Avista Corp, with the companies moving to ask the U.S. regulator to reconsider the order.

Douglas Kee’s take on Hydro One stock

“We looked at Hydro One a couple of times two years ago and just decided that with the Ontario government’s still owning a big chunk of the company … there are other public companies where you get the same kind of yield, the same kind of dividend growth, so we just avoided it,” says Kee, managing director and chief investment officer with Leon Frazer & Associates, to BNN Bloomberg.

“The old board versus the new board, I’m not sure that there’s much of an improvement. It was politics more than anything,” he says. “The unfortunate part is that the acquisition they were making in the United States is kind of on hold for now. The regulatory procedures have gone ahead but they are worried, and I guess the new board has to make a decision whether to go ahead with it or not.”

“Their transmissions side is coming up for regulatory hearings next year, which could be difficult in Ontario,” says Kee. “The offset to that is that there are a lot of municipal distributions systems in Ontario that may be sold — they bought one in Peterborough recently, which was a good deal for them. There may be more of that coming too.”

Last month, Hydro One reached an agreement with the City of Peterborough to buy its Peterborough Distribution utility which serves about 37,000 customers for $105 million. Another deal to purchase Orillia Power Distribution Corp for $41 million has been cancelled after an appeal to the Ontario Energy Board was denied in late August. Hydro One’s sought-after Avista Corp acquisition is reported to be worth $7 billion.

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Global Decarbonization Strategies align renewable energy, electrification, clean air policies, IMO sulfur cap, LNG fuels, and the EU 2050 roadmap to cut carbon intensity and meet Paris Agreement targets via EVs and efficiency.

Key Points

Frameworks that cut emissions via renewables, EVs, efficiency, cleaner marine fuels, and EU policy roadmaps.

✅ Renewables scale as wind and solar outcompete new coal and gas.

✅ Electrification of transport grows as EV costs fall and charging expands.

✅ IMO 2020 sulfur cap and LNG shift cut shipping emissions and particulates.

Are we doing enough to save the planet? Silly question. The latest prognosis from the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change made for gloomy reading. Fundamental to the Paris Agreement is the target of keeping global average temperatures from rising beyond 2°C. The UN argues that radical measures are needed, and investment incentives for clean electricity are seen as critical by many leaders to accelerate progress to meet that target.

Renewable power and electrification of transport are the pillars of decarbonization. It’s well underway in renewables - the collapse in costs make wind and solar generation competitive with new build coal and gas.

Renewables’ share of the global power market will triple by 2040 from its current level of 6% according to our forecasts.

The consumption side is slower, awaiting technological breakthrough and informed by efforts in countries such as New Zealand’s electricity transition to replace fossil fuels with electricity. The lower battery costs needed for electric vehicles (EVs) to compete head on and displace internal combustion engine (ICE)  cars are some years away. These forces only start to have a significant impact on global carbon intensity in the 2030s. Our forecasts fall well short of the 2°C target, as does the IEA’s base case scenario.

Yet we can’t just wait for new technology to come to the rescue. There are encouraging signs that society sees the need to deal with a deteriorating environment. Three areas of focus came out in discussion during Wood Mackenzie’s London Energy Forum - unrelated, different in scope and scale, each pointing the way forward.

First, clean air in cities.  China has shown how to clean up a local environment quickly. The government reacted to poor air quality in Beijing and other major cities by closing older coal power plants and forcing energy intensive industry and the residential sector to shift away from coal. The country’s return on investment will include a substantial future health care dividend.

European cities are introducing restrictions on diesel cars to improve air quality. London’s 2017 “toxicity charge” is a precursor of an Ultra-Low Emission Zone in 2019, and aligns with UK net-zero policy changes that affect transport planning, to be extended across much of the city by 2020. Paris wants to ban diesel cars from the city centre by 2025 and ICE vehicles by 2030. Barcelona, Madrid, Hamburg and Stuttgart are hatching similar plans.

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Second, desulphurisation of global shipping. High sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) meets around 3.5 million barrels per day (b/d) of the total marine market of 5 million b/d. A maximum of 3.5% sulphur content is allowed currently. The International Maritime Organisation (IMO) implements a 0.5% limit on all shipping in 2020, dramatically reducing the release of sulphur oxides into the atmosphere.

Some ships will switch to very low sulphur fuel oil, of which only around 1.4 million b/d will be available in 2020. Others will have to choose between investing in scrubbers or buying premium-priced low sulphur marine gas oil.

Longer-term, lower carbon-intensity gas is a winner as liquefied natural gas becomes fuel of choice for many newbuilds. Marine LNG demand climbs from near zero to 50 million tonnes per annum (tpa) by 2040 on our forecasts, behind only China, India and Japan as a demand centre. LNG will displace over 1 million b/d of oil demand in shipping by 2040.

Third, Europe’s radical decarbonisation plans. Already in the vanguard of emissions reductions policy, the European Commission is proposing to reduce carbon emissions for new cars and vans by 30% by 2030 versus 2020. The targets come with incentives for car manufacturers linked to the uptake of EVs.

The 2050 roadmap, presently at the concept stage, envisages a far more demanding regime, with EU electricity plans for 2050 implying a much larger power system. The mooted 80% reduction in emissions compared with 1990 will embrace all sectors. Power and transport are already moving in this direction, but the legacy fuel mix in many other sectors will be disrupted, too.

Near zero-energy buildings and homes might be possible with energy efficiency improvements, renewables and heat pumps. Electrification, recycling and bioenergy could reduce fossil fuel use in energy intensive sectors like steel and aluminium, and Europe’s oil majors going electric illustrates how incumbents are adapting. Some sectors will cite the risk decarbonisation poses to Europe’s global competitiveness. If change is to come, industry will need to build new partnerships with society to meet these targets.

The 2050 roadmap signals the ambition and will be game changing for Europe if it is adopted. It would provide a template for a global roll out that would go a long way toward meeting UN’s concerns.

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Wall Street backs Rick Perry’s $19 billion nuclear-powered data center venture, Fermi America, combining nuclear energy, AI infrastructure, and data centers to meet soaring electricity demand and attract major investors betting on America’s clean energy technology future.

What is "Wall Street Backs Rick Perry’s $19 Billion Nuclear-Powered Data Center Venture”?

Wall Street is backing Rick Perry’s $19 billion nuclear-powered data center venture because it combines the explosive growth of AI with the promise of clean, reliable nuclear energy.

✅ Addresses AI’s massive power demands with nuclear generation

✅ Positions Fermi America as a pioneer in energy-tech convergence

✅ Reflects investor confidence in long-term clean energy solutions

Former Texas Governor and U.S. Energy Secretary Rick Perry has returned to the energy spotlight, this time leading a bold experiment at the intersection of nuclear power and artificial intelligence. His startup, Fermi America, headquartered in Amarillo, Texas, went public this week with an initial valuation of $19 billion after its shares surged 55 percent above the opening price on the first day of trading.

The company aims to tackle one of the most pressing challenges in modern technology: the staggering energy demand of AI data centers. “Artificial intelligence, which is getting more and more embedded in all parts of our lives, the servers that host the data for artificial intelligence are stored in these massive warehouses called data centers,” said Houston Chronicle energy reporter Claire Hao. “And data centers use a ton of electricity.”

Fermi America’s plan, Hao explained, is as ambitious as it is unconventional. Fermi America has a proposal to build what it claims will be the world’s largest data center, powered by what it asserts will be the country’s largest nuclear complex. So very ambitious plans.”

According to the company’s roadmap, Fermi aims to bring its first mega reactor online by 2032, followed by three additional large reactors. In the meantime, the firm intends to integrate natural gas and solar energy by the end of next year to support early-stage operations.

While much of the energy sector’s attention has turned toward small modular reactors, Fermi’s approach focuses on traditional large-scale nuclear technology. “What Fermi is talking about building are large traditional reactors,” Hao said. “These very large traditional reactors are a tried and true technology. But the nuclear industry has a history of taking a very long time to build them, and they are also very expensive to build.” She noted that the most recent example, completed in 2023 by a Georgia utility, came in $17 billion over budget and several years late.

To mitigate such risks, Fermi has recruited specialists with international experience. “They’ve hired folks that have successfully built these projects in China and in other countries where it has been a lot smoother to build these,” Hao said. “Fermi wants to try to make it a quicker process.”

Perry’s involvement lends both visibility and controversy. In addition to co-founding the company, Griffin Perry, his son, plays a role in its management. The firm has hinted that it might even name reactors after former President Donald Trump, under whom Perry served as Secretary of Energy. Perry has framed the project as part of a national effort to regain technological ground. “He really wants to help the U.S. catch up to countries like China when it comes to delivering nuclear power for the AI race,” Hao explained. “He says we’re already behind.”

Despite the fanfare, Fermi America is still a fledgling enterprise. Founded in January and announced publicly in June, the company reported a $6.4 million loss in the first half of the year and has yet to generate any revenue. Still, its IPO exceeded expectations, opening at $21 a share and closing above $32 on the first day.

“I think that just shows there’s a lot of hype on Wall Street around artificial intelligence-related ventures,” Hao said. “Fermi, in the four months since it announced itself as a company, has found a lot of different ways to grab people’s attention.”

For now, the project represents both a technological gamble and a test of investor faith — a fusion of nuclear ambition and AI optimism that has Wall Street watching closely.

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OPG-TVA SMR Partnership advances advanced nuclear technology and small modular reactors for 24/7 carbon-free baseload power, enabling net-zero goals, cross-border licensing, and deployment within a North American clean energy hub.

Key Points

A cross-border effort by OPG and TVA to develop, license, and deploy SMRs for reliable, carbon-free baseload power.

✅ Coordinates design, licensing, construction, and operations

✅ Supports 24/7 baseload, net-zero targets, and energy security

✅ Leverages Darlington and Clinch River early site permits

Two of North America's leading nuclear utilities unveiled a pioneering partnership to develop advanced nuclear technology as an integral part of a clean energy future and creating a North American energy hub. Ontario Power Generation, whose OPG's SMR commitment is well established, and the Tennessee Valley Authority will jointly work to help develop small modular reactors as an effective long-term source of 24/7 carbon-free energy in both Canada and the U.S.

The agreement allows the companies to coordinate their explorations into the design, licensing, construction and operation of small modular reactors.

"As leaders in our industry and nations, OPG and TVA share a common goal to decarbonize energy generation while maintaining reliability and low-cost service, which our customers expect and deserve," said Jeff Lyash, TVA President and CEO. "Advanced nuclear technology will not only help us meet our net-zero carbon targets but will also advance North American energy security."

"Nuclear energy has long been key to Ontario's clean electricity grid, and is a crucial part of our net-zero future," said Ken Hartwick, OPG President and CEO. "Working together, OPG and TVA will find efficiencies and share best practices for the long-term supply of the economical, carbon-free, reliable electricity our jurisdictions need, supported by ongoing Pickering life extensions across Ontario's fleet."

OPG and TVA have similar histories and missions. Both are based on public power models that developed from renewable hydroelectric generation before adding nuclear to their generation mixes. Today, nuclear generation accounts for significant portions of their carbon-free energy portfolios, with Ontario advancing the Pickering B refurbishment to sustain capacity.

Both are also actively exploring SMR technologies. OPG is moving forward with plans to deploy an SMR at its Darlington nuclear facility in Clarington, ON, as part of broader Darlington SMR plans now underway. The Darlington site is the only location in Canada licensed for new nuclear with a completed and accepted Environmental Assessment. TVA currently holds the only Nuclear Regulatory Commission Early Site Permit in the U.S. for small modular reactor deployment at its Clinch River site near Oak Ridge, TN.

No exchange of funding is involved. However, the collaboration agreement will help OPG and TVA reduce the financial risk that comes from development of innovative technology, as well as future deployment costs.

"TVA has the most recent experience completing a new nuclear plant in North America at Watts Bar and that knowledge is invaluable to us as we work toward the first SMR groundbreaking at Darlington," said Hartwick. "Likewise, because we are a little further along in our construction timing, TVA will gain the advantage of our experience before they start work at Clinch River."

"It's a win-win agreement that benefits all of those served by both OPG and TVA, as well as our nations," said Lyash. "Moving this technology forward is not only a significant step in advancing a clean energy future and Canada's climate goals, but also in creating a North American energy hub."

"With the demand for clean electricity on the rise around the world, Ontario's momentum is growing. The world is watching Ontario as we advance our work to fully unleash our nuclear advantage, alongside a premiers' SMR initiative that underscores provincial collaboration. I congratulate OPG and TVA – two great industry leaders – for working together to deploy SMRs and showcase and apply Canada's nuclear expertise that will deliver economic, health and environmental benefits for all of us to enjoy," said Todd Smith, Ontario Minister of Energy.

"The changing climate is a global crisis that requires global solutions. The partnership between the Tennessee Valley Authority and Ontario Power Generation to develop and deploy advanced nuclear technology is exactly the kind of innovative collaboration that is needed to quickly bring the next generation of nuclear carbon-free generation to market. I applaud the leadership that both companies are demonstrating to further strengthen our cross-border relationships," said Maria Korsnick, President and CEO, Nuclear Energy Institute.

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UK Energy Price Cap Cut 2024 signals relief as wholesale gas prices fall; Ofgem price cap drops per Cornwall Insight, aided by LNG supply, mild winter, despite Red Sea tensions and Ukraine conflict impacts.

Key Points

A forecast cut to Great Britain's Ofgem price cap as wholesale gas falls, easing typical annual household bills in 2024.

✅ Cap falls from £1,928 to £1,620 in April 2024

✅ Forecast £1,497 in July, then about £1,541 from October

✅ Drivers: lower wholesale gas, LNG supply, mild winter

Households in Great Britain are set to experience a significant reduction in energy costs this spring, with bills projected to drop by over £300 annually. This decrease is primarily due to a decline in wholesale gas prices, offering some respite to those grappling with the cost of living crisis.

Cornwall Insight, a well-regarded industry analyst, predicts a 16% reduction in average bills from the previous quarter, potentially reaching the lowest levels since the onset of the Ukraine conflict.

The industry’s price cap, indicative of the average annual bill for a typical household, is expected to decrease from the current £1,928, set earlier this month, to £1,620 in April – a reduction of £308 and £40 less than previously forecasted in December, as ministers consider ending the gas-electricity price link to improve market resilience.

Concerns about escalating tensions in the Red Sea, where Houthi rebels have disrupted global shipping, initially led analysts to fear an increase in wholesale oil prices and subsequent impact on household energy costs.

Contrary to these concerns, oil prices have remained relatively stable, and European gas reserves have been higher than anticipated during a mild winter, with European gas prices returning to pre-Ukraine war levels since November.

Cornwall Insight anticipates that energy prices will continue to be comparatively low through 2024. They predict a further decline to £1,497 for a typical annual bill from July, followed by a slight increase to £1,541 starting in October.

This forecast is a welcome development for Britons who have been dealing with increased expenses across various sectors, from food to utilities, amidst persistently high inflation rates, with energy-driven EU inflation hitting lower-income households hardest across member states.

Energy bills saw a steep rise in 2021, which escalated further due to the Ukraine conflict in 2022, driving up wholesale gas prices. This surge prompted government intervention to subsidize bills, with the UK price cap estimated to cost around £89bn to the public purse, capping costs to a typical household at £2,500.

Cornwall Insight noted that the supply of liquified natural gas to Europe had not been as adversely affected by the Red Sea disruptions as initially feared. Moreover, the UK has been well-supplied with gas from the US, which has become a more significant supplier since the Ukraine war, even as US electricity prices have risen to multi-decade highs. Contributing factors also include lower gas prices in Asia, mild weather, and robust gas availability.

Craig Lowrey, a principal consultant at Cornwall Insight, remarked that concerns about Red Sea events driving up energy prices have not materialized, allowing households to expect a reduction in prices.

On Monday, the next-month wholesale gas price dropped by 4% to 65p a therm.

However, Lowrey cautioned that a complete return to pre-crisis energy bill levels remains unlikely due to ongoing market impacts from shifting away from Russian energy sources and persistent geopolitical tensions, as well as policy changes such as Britain’s Energy Security Bill shaping market reforms.

Richard Neudegg, director of regulation at Uswitch, welcomed the potential further reduction of the price cap in April. However, he pointed out that this offers little solace to households currently struggling with high winter energy costs during the winter. Neudegg urged Ofgem, the energy regulator, to prompt suppliers to reintroduce more competitive and affordable fixed-price deals.

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Texas power grid highlights ERCOT reliability strains from extreme heat, climate change, and low wind, as natural gas and renewables balance tight capacity amid EV charging growth, heat pumps, and blackout risk across the U.S.

Key Points

Texas power grid is ERCOT-run and isolated, balancing natural gas and wind amid extreme weather and electrification.

✅ Isolated from other U.S. grids, limited import support

✅ Vulnerable to extreme heat, winter storms, low wind

✅ Demand growth from EVs and heat pumps stresses capacity

Texas has a unique state-run power grid facing a Texas grid crisis that has raised concerns, but its issues with extreme weather, and balancing natural gas and wind, hold lessons for an entire U.S. at risk for power outages from climate change.

Grid operator the Electric Reliability Council of Texas, or ERCOT, which has drawn criticism from Elon Musk recently, called on consumers to voluntarily reduce power use on Monday when dangerous heat gripped America’s second-most populous state.

The action paid off as the Texas grid avoided blackouts — and a repeat of its winter crisis — despite record or near-record temperatures that depleted electric supplies amid a broader supply-chain crisis affecting utilities this summer, and risked lost power to more than 26 million customers. ERCOT later on Monday lifted the call for conservation.

For sure, it’s a unique situation, as the state-run power grid system runs outside the main U.S. grids. Still, all Americans can learn from Texas about the fragility of a national power grid that is expected to be challenged more frequently by hot and cold weather extremes brought on by climate change, including potential reliability improvements policymakers are weighing.

The grid will also be tested by increased demand to power electric vehicles (EVs) and conversions to electric heat pumps — all as part of a transition to a “greener” future.

Why is Texas different?
ERCOT, the main, but not only, Texas grid, is unique in its state-run, and not regional, format used by the rest of the country. Because it’s an energy-rich state, Texas has been able to set power prices below those seen in other parts of the country, and its independence gives it more pricing authority, while lawmakers consider market reforms to avoid blackouts. But during unusual strain on the system, such as more people blasting their air conditioners longer to combat a record heat wave, it also has no where else to turn.

A lethal winter power shortage in February 2021, during a Texas winter storm that left many without power and water, notoriously put the state and its independent utility in the spotlight when ERCOT failed to keep residents warm and pipes from bursting. Texas’s 2021 outage left more than 200 people dead and rang up $20 billion in damage. Fossil-fuel CL00, 0.80% backers pointed to the rising use of intermittent wind power, which generates 23% of Texas’s electricity. Others said natural-gas equipment was frozen under the extreme conditions.

This week, ERCOT is asking for voluntary conservation between 2 p.m. and 8 p.m. local time daily due to record high electricity demand from the projected heat wave, and also because of low wind. ERCOT said current projections show wind generation coming in at less than 10% of capacity. ERCOT stressed that no systemwide outages are expected, and Gov. Greg Abbott has touted grid readiness heading into fall, but it was acting preemptively.

A report late last year from the North American Electric Reliability Corp. (NERC) said the Texas system without upgrades could see a power shortfall of 37% in extreme winter conditions. NERC’s outlook suggested the state and ERCOT isn’t prepared for a repeat of weather extremes.

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