IMO implores for Ontario nuclear investment

By Toronto Star


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A speaker with Ontario's Independent Electricity Market Operator used haiku to cap a seminar that painted a dire long-term outlook for the province's electricity needs.

"Coal power closing. Soon we could be in the dark. Help us. Please build now," said Dan Rochester, head forecaster with the IMO.

The most pressing issue is finding ways to cope with the provincial government's decision to phase out coal-fired generation, which accounts for roughly a quarter of Ontario's total electricity output, by 2007.

Even if coal is not completely eliminated, Ontario will face an electricity shortage by 2009, Rochester said in a presentation recently at the Canadian Nuclear Society Conference in Toronto.

The good news is that Ontario should be fine for the next 18 months.

"We're in the best shape we've been in years going into the summer," Rochester said after his speech.

Two nuclear reactors at the Bruce station and one at the Darlington generating station are back online and TransAlta Corp.'s natural gas-fired generator in Sarnia is coming into service, so demand for electricity should be met, he said.

The provincial government has publicly stated the need to invest as much as $40 billion over the next 15 years to expand generating capacity, Rochester noted.

That certainly got the crowd salivating. After all, they would love to get their hands on some of that cash.

The nuclear power industry's main rivals are electricity producers that use natural gas.

Pierre Charlebois, acting chief nuclear officer at Ontario Power Generation Inc., described the option of extending the life of the Darlington and Pickering A and B nuclear power plants.

He said the public has lost confidence in OPG because of problems refurbishing the Pickering A nuclear generating station. That project has been weighed down by delays and huge cost overruns.

"We need to get more independent third parties driving the nuclear option," Charlebois said.

To bolster trust in nuclear power, the nuclear industry needs to show it has "world-class management," said Andrew Johnson, vice-president of power marketing at Bruce Power.

"We are not there right now," he added.

Building new nuclear capacity may seem like a no-brainer to the nuclear industry, but seemingly compelling alternatives do exist, he suggested.

"The gas lobby is equally persuasive."

Natural gas-fuelled plants have the key advantage of relatively low capital outlays and quick build times — two to three years — to increase capacity, Johnson said.

But the nuclear industry must hammer home the fact that, while less money is needed to build natural gas-fired plants, the fuel costs are much higher than uranium and are very volatile, he said.

North American natural gas reserves are finite, and have a remaining lifespan of about 80 years using optimistic estimates, he added.

Nuclear producers are guilty of over-optimism, he added, citing huge cost overruns and unrealistic time frames for bringing capacity back on line.

The solution, Johnson argued, includes showing that nuclear power can provide lower-cost electricity at a more stable price.

To convince the public, the nuclear industry must offer fixed — and guaranteed — supply prices, Johnson said.

The competition will not ignore the nuclear industry's past mistakes, he added.

"We must make sure we don't, either."

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Cost, safety drive line-burying decisions at Tucson Electric Power

TEP Undergrounding Policy prioritizes selective underground power lines to manage wildfire risk, engineering costs, and ratepayer impacts, balancing transmission and distribution reliability with right-of-way, safety, and vegetation management per Arizona regulators.

 

Key Points

A selective TEP approach to bury lines where safety, engineering, and cost justify undergrounding.

✅ Selective undergrounding for feeders near substations

✅ Balances wildfire mitigation, reliability, and ratepayer costs

✅ Follows ACC rules, BLM and USFS vegetation management

 

Though wildfires in California caused by power lines have prompted calls for more underground lines, Tucson Electric Power Co. plans to keep to its policy of burying lines selectively for safety.

Like many other utilities, TEP typically doesn’t install its long-range, high-voltage transmission lines, such as the TransWest Express project, and distribution equipment underground because of higher costs that would be passed on to ratepayers, TEP spokesman Joe Barrios said.

But the company will sometimes bury lower-voltage lines and equipment where it is cost-effective or needed for safety as utilities adapt to climate change across North America, or if customers or developers are willing to pay the higher installation costs

Underground installations generally include additional engineering expenses, right-of-way acquisition for projects like the New England Clean Power Link in other regions, and added labor and materials, Barrios said.

“This practice avoids passing along unnecessary costs to customers through their rates, so that all customers are not asked to subsidize a discretionary expenditure that primarily benefits residents or property owners in one small area of our service territory,” he said, adding that the Arizona Corporation Commission has supported the company’s policy.

Even so, TEP will place equipment underground in some circumstances if engineering or safety concerns, including electrical safety tips that utilities promote during storm season, justify the additional cost of underground installation, Barrios said.

In fact, lower-voltage “feeder” lines emerging from distribution substations are typically installed underground until the lines reach a point where they can be safely brought above ground, he added.

While in California PG&E has shut off power during windy weather to avoid wildfires in forested areas traversed by its power lines after events like the Drum Fire last June, TEP doesn’t face the same kind of wildfire risk, Barrios said.

Most of TEP’s 5,000 miles of transmission and distribution lines aren’t located in heavily forested areas that would raise fire concerns, though large urban systems have seen outages after station fires in Los Angeles, he said.

However, TEP has an active program of monitoring transmission lines and trimming vegetation to maintain a fire-safety buffer zone and address risks from vandalism such as copper theft where applicable, in compliance with federal regulations and in cooperation with the U.S. Bureau of Land Management and the U.S. Forest Service.

 

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Texans to vote on funding to modernize electricity generation

Texas Proposition 7 Energy Fund will finance ERCOT grid reliability via loans and grants for new on-demand natural gas plants, maintenance, and modernization, administered by the Public Utility Commission of Texas after Winter Storm Uri.

 

Key Points

State-managed fund providing loans and grants to expand and upgrade ERCOT power generation for grid reliability.

✅ $7.2B incentives for new dispatchable plants in ERCOT

✅ Administered by Public Utility Commission of Texas

✅ Aims to prevent outages like Winter Storm Uri

 

Texans are set to vote on Tuesday on a constitutional amendment to determine whether the state will create a special fund for financing the "construction, maintenance, and modernization of its electric generating facilities."

The energy fund would be administered and used only by the Public Utility Commission of Texas to provide loans and grants to maintain and upgrade electric generating facilities and improve electricity reliability across the state.

The biggest chunk of the fund, $7.2 billion, would go into loans and incentives to build new power-generating facilities in the ERCOT (Electric Reliability Council of Texas) region, where ERCOT has issued an RFP for winter capacity to address seasonal concerns.

The proposal, titled Proposition 7, is one of several electricity market reforms under consideration by lawmakers and regulators in Texas to avoid another energy crisis like the one caused by a deadly winter storm in February 2021.

That storm, known as Winter Storm Uri, left millions without power, water and heat for days as ERCOT struggled to prevent a grid collapse after the shutdown of an unusually large amount of generation, and bailout proposals soon surfaced in the Legislature as the market reeled.

Pablo Vegas, president and CEO of ERCOT, emphasized the grid has become more “volatile” given the current resources, as the Texas power grid faces recurring challenges.

“The complexities of managing a growing demand, and a very dynamic load environment with those types of resources becomes more and more challenging,” Vegas said Tuesday during a meeting of the ERCOT board of directors.

Vegas said one solution to overcome the challenge is investing in power production that is available on demand, like power plants fueled by natural gas. Those plants can help during times when the need for electricity strains the supply.

“With the passing of Proposition 7 on the ballot this November, we’ll see those incentives combined to incentivize a more balanced development strategy going forward,” Vegas told board members.

If Proposition 7 is passed by voters, it would enact S.B. 2627, which establishes an advisory committee to oversee the fund and the various projects it could be used for, amid severe-heat blackout risks that affect the broader U.S. $5 billion would be transferred from the General Revenue Fund to the Texas Energy Fund if Proposition 7 passes.

Opposition for Proposition 7 comes from the Lone Star chapter of the Sierra Club, an environmental organization based in Austin and which has issued a statement on Gov. Abbott's demands regarding grid policy. Cyrus Reed, conservation director of the Lone Star chapter, said the Texas energy fund is slated to benefit private utilities to build gas plants using taxpayer’s money.

 

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Trump's Vision of U.S. Energy Dominance Faces Real-World Constraints

U.S. Energy Dominance envisions deregulation, oil and gas growth, LNG exports, pipelines, and geopolitical leverage, while facing OPEC pricing power, infrastructure bottlenecks, climate policy pressures, and accelerating renewables in global markets.

 

Key Points

U.S. policy to grow fossil fuel output and exports via deregulation, bolstering energy security, geopolitical influence.

✅ Deregulation to expand drilling, pipelines, and export capacity

✅ Exposed to OPEC pricing, global shocks, and cost competitiveness

✅ Faces infrastructure, ESG finance, and renewables transition risks

 

Former President Donald Trump has consistently advocated for “energy dominance” as a cornerstone of his energy policy. In his vision, the United States would leverage its abundant natural resources to achieve energy self-sufficiency, flood global markets with cheap energy, and undercut competitors like Russia and OPEC nations. However, while the rhetoric resonates with many Americans, particularly those in energy-producing states, the pursuit of energy dominance faces significant real-world challenges that could limit its feasibility and impact.

The Energy Dominance Vision

Trump’s energy dominance strategy revolves around deregulation, increased domestic production of oil and gas, and the rollback of climate-oriented restrictions. During his presidency, he emphasized opening federal lands to drilling, accelerating the approval of pipelines, and, through an executive order, boosting uranium and nuclear energy initiatives, as well as withdrawing from international agreements like the Paris Climate Accord. The goal was not only to meet domestic energy demands but also to establish the U.S. as a major exporter of fossil fuels, thereby reducing reliance on foreign energy sources.

This approach gained traction during Trump’s first term, with the U.S. achieving record levels of oil and natural gas production. Energy exports surged, making the U.S. a net energy exporter for the first time in decades. Yet, critics argue that this policy prioritizes short-term economic gains over long-term sustainability, while supporters believe it provides a roadmap for energy security and geopolitical leverage.

Market Realities

The energy market is complex, influenced by factors beyond the control of any single administration, with energy crisis impacts often cascading across sectors. While the U.S. has significant reserves of oil and gas, the global market sets prices. Even if the U.S. ramps up production, it cannot insulate itself entirely from price shocks caused by geopolitical instability, OPEC production cuts, or natural disasters.

For instance, despite record production in the late 2010s, American consumers faced volatile gasoline prices during an energy crisis driven by $5 gas and external factors like tensions in the Middle East and fluctuating global demand. Additionally, the cost of production in the U.S. is often higher than in countries with more easily accessible reserves, such as Saudi Arabia. This limits the competitive advantage of U.S. energy producers in global markets.

Infrastructure and Environmental Concerns

A major obstacle to achieving energy dominance is infrastructure. Expanding oil and gas production requires investments in pipelines, export terminals, and refineries. However, these projects often face delays due to regulatory hurdles, legal challenges, and public opposition. High-profile pipeline projects like Keystone XL and Dakota Access have become battlegrounds between industry proponents and environmental activists, and cross-border dynamics such as support for Canadian energy projects amid tariff threats further complicate permitting, highlighting the difficulty of reconciling energy expansion with environmental and community concerns.

Moreover, the transition to cleaner energy sources is accelerating globally, with many countries committing to net-zero emissions targets. This trend could reduce the demand for fossil fuels in the long run, potentially leaving U.S. producers with stranded assets if global markets shift more quickly than anticipated.

Geopolitical Implications

Trump’s energy dominance strategy also hinges on the belief that U.S. energy exports can weaken adversaries like Russia and Iran. While increased American exports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) to Europe have reduced the continent’s reliance on Russian gas, achieving total energy independence for allies is a monumental task. Europe’s energy infrastructure, designed for pipeline imports from Russia, cannot be overhauled overnight to accommodate LNG shipments.

Additionally, the influence of major producers like Saudi Arabia and the OPEC+ alliance remains significant, even as shifts in U.S. policy affect neighbors; in Canada, some viewed Biden as better for the energy sector than alternatives. These countries can adjust production levels to influence prices, sometimes undercutting U.S. efforts to expand its market share.

The Renewable Energy Challenge

The growing focus on renewable energy adds another layer of complexity. Solar, wind, and battery storage technologies are becoming increasingly cost-competitive with fossil fuels. Many U.S. states and private companies are investing heavily in clean energy to align with consumer preferences and global trends, amid arguments that stepping away from fossil fuels can bolster national security. This shift could dampen the domestic demand for oil and gas, challenging the long-term viability of Trump’s energy dominance agenda.

Moreover, international pressure to address climate change could limit the expansion of fossil fuel infrastructure. Financial institutions and investors are increasingly reluctant to fund projects perceived as environmentally harmful, further constraining growth in the sector.

While Trump’s call for U.S. energy dominance taps into a desire for economic growth and energy security, it faces numerous challenges. Global market dynamics, infrastructure bottlenecks, environmental concerns, and the transition to renewable energy all pose significant barriers to achieving the ambitious vision.

For the U.S. to navigate these challenges effectively, a balanced approach that incorporates both traditional energy sources and investments in clean energy is likely needed. Striking this balance will require careful policymaking that considers not just immediate economic gains but also long-term sustainability and global competitiveness.

 

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N.L., Ottawa agree to shield ratepayers from Muskrat Falls cost overruns

Muskrat Falls Financing Restructuring redirects megadam benefits to ratepayers, stabilizes electricity rates, and overhauls federal provincial loan guarantees for the hydro project, addressing cost overruns flagged by the Public Utilities Board in Newfoundland and Labrador.

 

Key Points

A revised funding model shifting benefits to ratepayers to curb rate hikes linked to Muskrat Falls cost overruns.

✅ Shields ratepayers from megadam cost overruns

✅ Revises federal provincial loan guarantees

✅ Targets stable electricity rates by 2021 and beyond

 

Ottawa and Newfoundland and Labrador say they will rewrite the financial structure of the Muskrat Falls hydro project to shield ratepayers from paying for the megadam's cost overruns.

Federal Natural Resources Minister Seamus O'Regan and Premier Dwight Ball announced Monday that their two governments would scrap the financial structure agreed upon in past federal-provincial loan agreements, moving to a model that redirects benefits, such as a lump sum credit, to ratepayers.

Both politicians called the announcement, which was light on dollar figures, a major milestone in easing residents' fears that electricity rates will spike sharply, as seen with Nova Scotia's debated 14% hike, when the over-budget dam comes fully online next year.
"We are in a far better place today thanks to this comprehensive plan," Ball said.

Ball has said the issue of electricity rates is a top priority for his government, and he has pledged to keep rates near existing levels, but rate mitigation talks with Ottawa have dragged on since April.

A report by the province's Public Utilities Board released Friday forecast an "unprecedented" 75 per cent increase in average domestic rates for island residents in 2021, while Nova Scotia's regulator approved a 14% hike, and reported concerns from industrial customers about their ability to remain competitive.

Costs of the Muskrat Falls megadam on Labrador's Lower Churchill River have ballooned to more than $12.7 billion since the project was approved in 2012, according to the latest estimate of Crown corporation Nalcor Energy.

The dam is set to produce more power than the province can sell. Its existing financial structure would have left electricity ratepayers paying for Muskrat Falls to make up the difference starting in 2021, an issue both governments said Monday has been resolved with the relaunch of financing talks.

"Essentially, you won't pay this on your monthly light bills," Ball said.

But details of how the project will meet financing requirements in coming decades to make up the gap in funds are still to be worked out.

Both Ball and O'Regan criticized previous governments for sanctioning the poorly planned development and again pledged their commitment to easing the burden on residents.

"We promised we would be there to help, and we will be," O'Regan said before announcing a "relaunch" of negotiations around the project's financial structure.

He did not say how much the new setup might cost the federal government, despite earlier federal funding commitments, stressing that the new focus will be on the project's long-term sustainability. "There's no single piece of policy ... that can resolve such a large and complicated mess," O'Regan said.

The two governments also said they will work towards electrifying federal buildings to reduce an anticipated power surplus in the province.

In the short term, the federal government said it would allow for "flexibility" in upcoming cash requirements related to debt servicing, allowing deferral of payments if necessary.

Ball said that flexibility was built in to ensure the plan would still be applicable if costs continue to rise before Muskrat Falls is commissioned.

Political opponents criticized Monday's plan as lacking detail.

"What I heard talked about was an agreement that in the future, there's going to be an agreement," said Progressive Conservative Leader Ches Crosbie. "This was an occasion to reassure people that there's a plan in place to make life here affordable, and I didn't see that happen today."

Others addressed the lingering questions about the project's final cost.

Nalcor's latest financial update has remained unchanged since 2017, though the Muskrat Falls project has seen additional delays related to staffing and software issues.

Dennis Browne, the province's consumer advocate, said the switch to a cost of service model is a significant move that will benefit ratepayers, but he said it's impossible to truly restructure the project while it's a work in progress. "We need to know what the figures are, and we don't have them," he said.

 

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Power firms win UK subsidies for new Channel cables project

UK Electricity Interconnectors secure capacity market subsidies, supporting winter reliability with seabed cables to France and Belgium via the Channel Tunnel, lowering consumer costs, squeezing coal, and challenging new gas plants through cross-border energy trading.

 

Key Points

High-voltage cables linking Britain to Europe, securing backup capacity, cutting costs and boosting winter reliability.

✅ Won capacity market contracts at record-low prices

✅ Cables to France and Belgium via Channel Tunnel, seabed routes

✅ Squeezes coal, challenges new gas; renewables may join market

 

New electricity cables across the Channel to France and Belgium will be a key part of keeping Britain’s lights on during winter amid record electricity prices across Europe in the early 2020s, after their owners won backup power subsidies in a government auction this week.

For the first time, interconnector operators successfully bid for a slice of hundreds of millions’ worth of contracts in the capacity market. That will help cut costs for consumers, given how electricity is priced in Europe today, and squeeze out old coal power plants.

Three new interconnectors are currently being built to Europe, almost doubling existing capacity, with one along the Channel Tunnel and two on the seabed: one between Kent and Zeebrugge and one from Hampshire to Normandy. 

The interconnectors were success stories in this week’s capacity auction, which saw power firms bid to provide backup electricity in the winter of 2021/22. Prices for the four-year contracts hit a record low of £8.40 per kilowatt per year, which analysts described as a shock and well below expectations.

One industry source said the figure was “miles away” from what is needed to encourage companies to build big new gas power stations, which some argue are necessary to fill the gap when the UK’s ageing nuclear reactors close as Europe loses nuclear power across the region over the next decade.

While bad news for those firms, the low price is good for consumers. The subsidies will add about £525m to energy bills, or £5.68 for the average household, compared with £11 for the year before, according to analysts Cornwall Insight.

Existing gas power stations scooped up most of the contracts, but new gas ones lost out, as did several coal plants. Battery storage plants, a standout success in the last auction, fared comparatively poorly after changes to the rules.

Experts at Bernstein bank said the the misses by coal meant that around half the UK’s remaining coal power capacity could close from October 2019, when existing capacity market contracts run out. Chaitanya Kumar, policy adviser at thinktank Green Alliance, said: “Coal’s exit from the UK’s energy system just moved a step closer as coal contracts fell by half compared with last year.”

Tom Edwards, an analyst at Cornwall Insight, said that more interconnectors were likely to bid into future rounds of the capacity market, such as the cable being laid between Norway and the UK. Relying on foreign power supplies was fine, he said, provided Brexit did not make energy trading more difficult and the interconnectors delivered at times of need, where events like Irish grid price spikes illustrate the stress points.

However, one industry source, who wants to see new gas plants built in the UK, said the results showed that the system was not working, amid UK peak power prices that have climbed in recent trading. “That self-sufficiency doesn’t seem to be a priority at a time when we’re breaking away from Europe is a bit weird,” they said.

But the prospects for new gas plants in future rounds of the capacity market look bleak. They will very likely face a new source of competition next year, if energy regulator Ofgem approves a proposal to allow renewables to compete too.

 

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Alberta gives $40M to help workers transition from coal power jobs

Alberta Coal Transition Support offers EI top-ups, 75% wage replacement, retraining, tuition vouchers, and on-site advice for workers leaving thermal coal mines and coal-fired power plants during the provincial phase-out.

 

Key Points

Alberta Coal Transition Support is a $40M program providing EI top-ups, retraining, and tuition vouchers to coal workers.

✅ 75% EI top-up; province requests federal alignment

✅ Tuition vouchers and retraining for displaced workers

✅ On-site transition services; about 2,000 workers affected

 

Alberta is putting aside $40 million to help workers losing their jobs as the province transitions away from thermal coal mines and coal-fired power plants, a shift connected to the future of work in the electricity sector over the next decade.

Labour Minister Christina Gray says the money will top up benefits to 75 per cent of a worker’s previous earnings during the time they collect employment insurance, amid regional shifts such as how COVID-19 reshaped Saskatchewan in recent months.

Alberta is asking the federal government to not claw back existing benefits as the province tops up those EI benefits, as utilities face pressures like Manitoba Hydro cost-cutting during the pandemic, while also extending EI benefits for retiring coal workers.

Gray says even if the federal government does not step up, the province will provide the funds to match that 75 per cent threshold, a contrast to problems such as Kentucky miners' cold checks seen elsewhere.

There will also be help for workers in the form of tuition vouchers, retraining programs like the Nova Scotia energy training program that connects youth to the sector, and on-site transitioning advice.

The province estimates there are 2,000 workers affected.

 

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