By the Year of 2020, the Amount of Installed Generation Capacity of Hydropower All over China Will Reach 270 Million

EIA U.S. Power Outlook 2023-2024 forecasts lower electricity demand, softer wholesale prices, and faster renewable growth from solar and wind, with steady natural gas, reduced coal generation, slight nuclear gains, and ERCOT market moderation.

Key Points

An EIA forecast of a 2023 demand dip, 2024 rebound, lower prices, and a higher renewable share in the U.S. power mix.

✅ Demand dips to 4,000 billion kWh in 2023; rebounds in 2024.

✅ ERCOT on-peak prices average about $35/MWh versus $80/MWh in 2022.

✅ Renewables grow to 24% share; coal falls to 17%; nuclear edges up.

U.S. power consumption is expected to slip about 1% in 2023 from the previous year as milder weather slows usage from the record high hit in 2022, consistent with recent U.S. consumption trends observed over the past several years, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in its Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO).

EIA projected that electricity demand is on track to slide to 4,000 billion kilowatt-hours (kWh) in 2023 from a historic high of 4,048 billion kilowatt-hours (kWh) in 2022, reflecting patterns seen during COVID-19 demand shifts in prior years, before rising to 4,062 billion kWh in 2024 as economic growth ramps up.

Less demand coupled with more electricity generation from cheap renewable power sources and lower natural gas prices is forecast to slash wholesale power prices this year, the EIA said.

The on-peak wholesale price at the North hub in Texas’ ERCOT power market is expected to average about $35 per megawatt-hour (MWh) in 2023 compared with an average of nearly $80/MWh in 2022 after the 2022 price surge in power markets.

As capacity for renewables like solar and wind ramp up and as natural gas prices ease amid the broader energy crisis pressures, the EIA said it expects coal-fired power generation to be 17% less in the spring of 2023 than in the spring of 2022.

Coal will provide an average of 17% of total U.S. generation this year, down from 20% last year, as utilities shift investments toward electricity delivery and away from new power production, the EIA said.

The share of total generation supplied by natural gas is seen remaining at about the same this year at 39%. The nuclear share of generation is seen rising slightly to 20% this year from 19% in 2022. Generation from renewable energy sources grows the most in the forecast, increasing to 24% this year from a share of 22% last year, even as residential electricity bills rose in 2022 across the U.S.

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Wall Street backs Rick Perry’s $19 billion nuclear-powered data center venture, Fermi America, combining nuclear energy, AI infrastructure, and data centers to meet soaring electricity demand and attract major investors betting on America’s clean energy technology future.

What is "Wall Street Backs Rick Perry’s $19 Billion Nuclear-Powered Data Center Venture”?

Wall Street is backing Rick Perry’s $19 billion nuclear-powered data center venture because it combines the explosive growth of AI with the promise of clean, reliable nuclear energy.

✅ Addresses AI’s massive power demands with nuclear generation

✅ Positions Fermi America as a pioneer in energy-tech convergence

✅ Reflects investor confidence in long-term clean energy solutions

Former Texas Governor and U.S. Energy Secretary Rick Perry has returned to the energy spotlight, this time leading a bold experiment at the intersection of nuclear power and artificial intelligence. His startup, Fermi America, headquartered in Amarillo, Texas, went public this week with an initial valuation of $19 billion after its shares surged 55 percent above the opening price on the first day of trading.

The company aims to tackle one of the most pressing challenges in modern technology: the staggering energy demand of AI data centers. “Artificial intelligence, which is getting more and more embedded in all parts of our lives, the servers that host the data for artificial intelligence are stored in these massive warehouses called data centers,” said Houston Chronicle energy reporter Claire Hao. “And data centers use a ton of electricity.”

Fermi America’s plan, Hao explained, is as ambitious as it is unconventional. Fermi America has a proposal to build what it claims will be the world’s largest data center, powered by what it asserts will be the country’s largest nuclear complex. So very ambitious plans.”

According to the company’s roadmap, Fermi aims to bring its first mega reactor online by 2032, followed by three additional large reactors. In the meantime, the firm intends to integrate natural gas and solar energy by the end of next year to support early-stage operations.

While much of the energy sector’s attention has turned toward small modular reactors, Fermi’s approach focuses on traditional large-scale nuclear technology. “What Fermi is talking about building are large traditional reactors,” Hao said. “These very large traditional reactors are a tried and true technology. But the nuclear industry has a history of taking a very long time to build them, and they are also very expensive to build.” She noted that the most recent example, completed in 2023 by a Georgia utility, came in $17 billion over budget and several years late.

To mitigate such risks, Fermi has recruited specialists with international experience. “They’ve hired folks that have successfully built these projects in China and in other countries where it has been a lot smoother to build these,” Hao said. “Fermi wants to try to make it a quicker process.”

Perry’s involvement lends both visibility and controversy. In addition to co-founding the company, Griffin Perry, his son, plays a role in its management. The firm has hinted that it might even name reactors after former President Donald Trump, under whom Perry served as Secretary of Energy. Perry has framed the project as part of a national effort to regain technological ground. “He really wants to help the U.S. catch up to countries like China when it comes to delivering nuclear power for the AI race,” Hao explained. “He says we’re already behind.”

Despite the fanfare, Fermi America is still a fledgling enterprise. Founded in January and announced publicly in June, the company reported a $6.4 million loss in the first half of the year and has yet to generate any revenue. Still, its IPO exceeded expectations, opening at $21 a share and closing above $32 on the first day.

“I think that just shows there’s a lot of hype on Wall Street around artificial intelligence-related ventures,” Hao said. “Fermi, in the four months since it announced itself as a company, has found a lot of different ways to grab people’s attention.”

For now, the project represents both a technological gamble and a test of investor faith — a fusion of nuclear ambition and AI optimism that has Wall Street watching closely.

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2019 Grid Edge Trends highlight evolving demand response, DER orchestration, real-time operations, AMI data, and EV charging, as wholesale markets seek flexibility and resiliency amid tighter reserve margins and fossil baseload retirements.

Key Points

Shifts toward DER-enabled demand response and real-time, behind-the-meter flexibility.

✅ Real-time DER dispatch enhances reliability during tight reserves

✅ AMI and ICT improve forecasting, monitoring, and control of resources

✅ Demand response shifts toward aggregated behind-the-meter orchestration

Which grid edge trends will continue into 2019 as the digital grid matures and what kind of disruption is on the horizon in the coming year?

From advanced metering infrastructure endpoints to electric-vehicle chargers, grid edge venture capital investments to demand response events, hundreds of data points go into tracking new trends at the edge of the grid amid ongoing grid modernization discussions across utilities.

Trends across these variables tell a story of transition, but perhaps not yet transformation. Customers hold more power than ever before in 2019, with utilities and vendors innovating to take advantage of new opportunities behind the meter. Meanwhile, external factors can always throw things off-course, including the data center boom that is posing new power challenges, and reliability is top of mind in light of last year's extreme weather events. What does the 2018 data say about 2019?

For one thing, demand response evolved, enabled by new information and communications technology. Last year, wholesale market operators increasingly sought to leverage the dispatch of distributed energy resource flexibility in close to real time. Three independent system operators and regional transmission organizations called on demand response five times in total for relief in the summer of 2018, including the NYISO.

The demand response events called in the last 18 months send a clear message: Grid operators will continue to call events year-round. This story unfolds as reserve margins continue to tighten, fossil baseload generation retirements continue, and system operators are increasingly faced with proving the resiliency and reliability of their systems while efforts to invest in a smarter electricity infrastructure gain momentum across the country.

In 2019, the total amount of flexible demand response capacity for wholesale market participation will remain about the same. However, the way operators and aggregators are using demand response is changing as information and communications technology systems improve and utilities are using AI to adapt to electricity demands, allowing the behavior of resources to be more accurately forecasted, monitored and controlled.

These improvements are allowing customer-sited resources to offer  flexibility services closer to real-time operations and become more reactive to system needs. At the same time, traditional demand response will continue to evolve toward the orchestration of DERs as an aggregate flexible resource to better enable growing levels of renewable energy on the grid.

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CCUS in the U.S. Power Sector drives investments as DOE grants, 45Q tax credits, and EPA carbon rules spur carbon capture, geologic storage, and utilization, while debates persist over costs, transparency, reliability, and emissions safeguards.

Key Points

CCUS captures CO2 from power plants for storage or use, backed by 45Q tax credits, DOE funding, and EPA carbon rules.

✅ DOE grants and 45Q credits aim to de-risk project economics.

✅ EPA rules may require capture rates to meet emissions limits.

✅ Transparency and MRV guard against tax credit abuse.

New public and private funding, including DOE $110M for CCUS announced recently, and expected strong federal power plant emissions reduction standards have accelerated electricity sector investments in carbon capture, utilization and storage,’ or CCUS, projects but some worry it is good money thrown after bad.

CCUS separates carbon from a fossil fuel-burning power plant’s exhaust through carbon capture methods for geologic storage or use in industrial and other applications, according to the Department of Energy. Fossil fuel industry giants like Calpine and Chevron are looking to take advantage of new federal tax credits and grant funding for CCUS to manage potentially high costs in meeting power plant performance requirements, amid growing investor pressure for climate reporting, including new rules, expected from EPA soon, on reducing greenhouse gas emissions from existing power plants.

Power companies have “ambitious plans” to add CCUS to power plants, estimated to cause 25% of U.S. CO2 emissions. As a result, the power sector “needs CCUS in its toolkit,” said DOE Office of Fossil Energy and Carbon Management Assistant Secretary Brad Crabtree. Successful pilots and demonstrations “will add to investor confidence and lead to more deployment” to provide dispatchable clean energy, including emerging CO2-to-electricity approaches for power system reliability after 2030,| he added.

But environmentalists and others insist potentially cost-prohibitive CCUS infrastructure, including CO2 storage hub initiatives, must still prove itself effective under rigorous and transparent federal oversight.

“The vast majority of long-term U.S. power sector needs can be met without fossil generation, and better options are being deployed and in development,” Sierra Club Senior Advisor, Strategic Research and Development, Jeremy Fisher, said, pointing to carbon-free electricity investments gaining momentum in the market. CCUS “may be needed, but without better guardrails, power sector abuses of federal funding could lead to increased emissions and stranded fossil assets,” he added.

New DOE CCUS project grants, an increased $85 per metric ton, or tonne, federal 45Q tax credit, and the forthcoming EPA power plant carbon rules and the federal coal plan will do for CCUS what similar policies did for renewables, advocates and opponents agreed. But controversial past CCUS performance and tax credit abuses must be avoided with transparent reporting requirements for CO2 capture, opponents added.

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Norway Electricity Export Limits weigh hydro reservoirs, energy security, EU-UK interconnectors, and record power prices amid Russia gas cuts; Statnett grid constraints and subsidies debate intensify as reservoir levels fall, threatening winter supply.

Key Points

Rules to curb Norway's power exports when reservoirs are very low, protecting supply security and easing extreme prices.

✅ Triggered by low hydro levels and record day-ahead prices

✅ Considers EU/UK cables, Statnett operations, seasonal thresholds

✅ Aims to secure winter supply and expand subsidies

Norway, one of Europe’s biggest electricity exporters, is considering measures to limit power shipments to prevent domestic shortages amid surging prices, according to local media reports.

The government may propose a rule to limit exports if the water level for Norway’s hydro reservoirs drops to “very low” levels, to ensure security of supply, said Energy Minister Terje Aasland, according NTB newswire. The limit would take account of seasonality and would differ across the about 1,800 hydro reservoirs, he said. 

Russia’s gas supply cuts in retaliation for European sanctions over the war in Ukraine have triggered the continent’s worst energy crisis in decades, with demand surging for cheap Norwegian hydro electricity. Yet the government faces increasing calls from the public and opposition to limit flows abroad. Prices are near record levels in some parts of the Nordic nation as hydro-reservoir levels have plunged in the south after a drier-than-normal spring. 

The government has been under pressure to do something about exports since before April. Flows on the cables are regulated by deals with both the European Union and the UK energy market and Norway can’t simply cut flows. It’s the latest test of European solidarity and a wake-up call for Europe when it comes to energy supplies. Hungary is trying to ban energy exports after it declared an energy emergency.

Back in May, grid operator Statnett SF warned that Norway could face a strained power situation after less snowfall than usual during the winter. At the end of last week, the level of filling in Norwegian hydro reservoirs was 66.5%, compared with a median 74.9% for the corresponding time in 2002-2021, regulator NVE said. Day-ahead electricity prices in southwest Norway soared to a record 423 euros per megawatt-hour late last month, partly due to bottlenecks in the grid limiting supply from the northern regions.

The grid operator has been asked to present by Oct. 1 possible measures that need to be taken to secure supply and infrastructure security ahead of the winter. Statnett operates cables to the UK and Germany aimed at selling surplus electricity and would likely take a financial hit if curbs were introduced. “Operations of these will always follow current laws and regulations,” Irene Meldal, a company spokeswoman, said Friday by email. 

Premier Jonas Gahr Store signaled his minority government will file proposals that also include more subsidies to families and companies and align with Europe’s emergency price measures during August, according to an interview with TV2 on Thursday. Meanwhile, opposition politicians plan to hold an extraordinary parliament meeting to discuss boosting the subsidies.

Aasland will summon the parties’ representatives to a meeting on Monday on the electricity crisis, the Aftenposten newspaper reported on Friday, without citing anyone. He intends to inform the parties about the ongoing work and aims to “avoid rushed decisions” by the parliamentary majority.

Norway Faces Pressure to Curb Power Exports as Prices Surge (1)

The nation gets almost all of its electricity from its vast hydro resources. Historically, it has been able to export a hefty surplus and still have among the lowest prices in Europe. 
 

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Clean Electricity Standard (CES) sets utility emissions targets, uses tradable credits, and advances decarbonization via technology-agnostic benchmarks, carbon capture, renewable portfolio standards, upstream methane accounting, and cap-and-trade alternatives in reconciliation policy.

Key Points

CES sets utility emissions targets using tradable credits and benchmarks to drive power-sector decarbonization.

✅ Annual clean energy targets phased to 2050

✅ Tradable credits for compliance across utilities

✅ Includes upstream methane and lifecycle emissions

The Biden Administration and Democratic members of Congress have supported including a clean electricity standard (CES) in the upcoming reconciliation bill. A CES is an alternative to pricing carbon dioxide through a tax or cap-and-trade program and focuses on reducing greenhouse gas emissions produced during electricity generation by establishing targets, while early assessments show mixed results so far. In principle, it is a technology-agnostic approach. In practice, however, it pushes particular technologies out of the market.

The details of the CES are still being developed, but recent legislation may provide insight into how the CES could operate. In May, Senator Tina Smith and Representative Ben Ray Luján introduced the Clean Energy Standard Act of 2019 (CESA), while Minnesota's 100% carbon-free mandate offers a state-level parallel, and in January 2020, the House Energy and Commerce Committee released a discussion draft of the Climate Leadership and Environmental Action for our Nation’s (CLEAN) Future Act. Both bills increase the clean energy target annually until 2050 in order to phase out emissions. Both bills also create a credit system where clean sources of electricity as determined by a benchmark, carbon dioxide emitted per kilowatt-hour, receive credits. These credits may be transferred, sold, and auctioned so utilities that fail to meet targets can procure credits from others, as large energy customers push to accelerate clean energy globally.

The bills’ benchmarks vary, and while the CLEAN Future Act allows natural gas-fired generators to receive partial credits, CESA does not. Under both bills, these generators would be expected to install carbon capture technology to continue meeting increasing targets for clean electricity generation. Both bills go beyond considering the emissions resulting from generation and include upstream emissions for natural gas-fired generators. Natural gas, a greenhouse gas, that is leaked upstream of a generator during transportation is to be included among its emissions. The CLEAN Future Act also calls for newly constructed hydropower generators to account for the emissions associated with the facility’s construction despite producing clean electricity. These additional provisions demonstrate not only the CES’s inability to fully address the issue of emissions but also the slippery slope of expanding the program to include other markets, echoing cost and reliability concerns as California exports its energy policies across the West.

A majority of states have adopted clean energy, electricity, or renewable portfolio standards, with some considering revamping electricity rates to clean the grid, leaving legislators with plenty of examples to consider. As they weigh their options, legislators should consider if they are effectively addressing the problem at hand, economy-wide emissions reductions, and at what cost, drawing on examples like New Mexico's 100% clean electricity bill to inform trade-offs.

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