Will electric cars survive?

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Lowell Leifso hasn't filled up at a gas station once since he bought a sparkling grey Toyota RAV4 earlier this year.

He hasn't needed to.

His commuter vehicle would look like any of the other popular Toyota crossovers on the road, if it weren't for the bright "electric vehicle" decals stuck to it.

"It's quite an attention grabber," Leifso admits. "People ask questions like, 'Did you build it? Where can I get one?'"

Leifso's 2003 model was among the last of the plug-in electric vehicles Toyota retailed in California before shutting down its line.

It's proven its worth to Leifso already.

Although acceleration is noticeably sluggish, the car can zip down the highway at 130 km/h.

And with a range of about 160 km, it costs about $2 to "fill up" when he charges up the RAV4 at home through a paddle that slips in under the front grill.

That's about one-fifth of the cost of filling up a regular gas-powered RAV4, Leifso says.

And as gas prices head north of $1 per litre and car companies continue their public struggle to survive, the interest in alternative fuel technologies is only spiking.

Today, most major manufacturers have rushed to promise electric vehicles for the market within years. Canadian auto-parts magnate Frank Stronach wants to mass-produce electric cars within three years.

But what are the chances of the technology succeeding? Is the idea that electric vehicles will be widespread in just a few years merely a pipe dream?

"It's never been more serious," says auto industry analyst Dennis DesRosiers, of manufacturers' renewed interest in electric vehicles. "They're investing billions into developing the technology."

But still, DesRosiers doesn't believe there will be wide acceptance of the technology any time soon.

"Electric vehicles' ability to get into the mainstream is probably at least a decade, if not two decades, out into the future," he says. "It's just that daunting a technological challenge."

He points to the popularity of hybrid vehicles, which have been readily available for several years now.

Out of 1.6 million new vehicles sold in Canada last year, he says, only 25,000 were hybrids.

There are significant barriers to widespread acceptance as well as a wide range of other alternative technologies from biodiesel and ethanol to solar and hydrogen power.

"Promoters of electric vehicles tend to isolate themselves, that they are the only competing technology to gas. There are actually 10 or 12 different technologies."

Some manufacturers, too, are casting a wide net.

"We have not backed any particular solution," says Honda Canada executive vice-president Jerry Chenkin, who calls his company's strategy a "portfolio approach."

"We are recognizing the fact that nobody knows which solution will be the best in the end. The key for us is to invest in several different alternative solutions."

Proponents of electrical vehicles, however, see the technology only growing.

"It is where cell phones were in 1985," says John Stonier, of the Vancouver Electric Vehicle Association.

"The cell phone in 1985 was a brick. It had a huge battery and there was very little production. The electric car industry is at the exact same point."

Even with today's technology, Stonier argues, electric vehicles would be fine for most consumers, getting them from point A to B and back in time for a charge-up.

"People's needs are actually a lot less than they think. If you look at the statistics, only one per cent of trips made with a car are above 100 miles long."

Government policy has to keep up with investments to stimulate the industry, as well as supports for the infrastructure needed to support electric vehicles, Stonier says.

Behind the scenes, steps are being taken to streamline market acceptance for EVs. Developer Concord Pacific, for example, recently announced it would build a condominium project in Vancouver with a parkade equipped to handle EV charging needs.

But provincial and federal authorities are still trying to predict exactly what kind of infrastructure will be needed to handle widespread EV acceptance.

BC Hydro, for example, is part of a provincial working group studying the demands plug-in EVs may have on infrastructure.

"We've been monitoring it," says spokesperson Dag Sharman. "The amount of electricity they would use is something we simply don't know because we don't know how many electric vehicles there would be."

A federal working group is tackling similar issues. The federally coordinated Canadian Electric Vehicle Technology Roadmap, or evTRM, is composed of industry players and is set to submit its recommendations to Ottawa.

However, initial projections for electric vehicles in Canada are modest.

By 2018, the group is envisioning 500,000 highway-capable plug-in EVs on the road, a number that adds up to about 15 per cent of new vehicles sold in Canada over the next decade, the group says.

It's not an earth-shattering number, admits Mike Elwood, chair of evTRM's steering committee.

"It's enough to get the ball rolling," says Elwood, vice-president of marketing at Azure Dynamics, a player in electric drive technology for commercial vehicles.

"Even though I personally would like to see it at 100 per cent, I know that's probably not attainable."

But although he admits the figure is conservative compared to the paradigm shift many observers see as necessary for the auto industry, it's still a daunting leap from today, he says.

"We don't have time to waste. We don't have time to sit there and say, well, in 10 years, maybe things will be different," Elwood said.

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BloombergNEF: World offshore wind costs 'drop 32% per cent'

Global Renewable LCOE Trends reveal offshore wind costs down 32%, with 10MW turbines, lower CAPEX and OPEX, and parity for solar PV and onshore wind in Europe, China, and California, per BloombergNEF analysis.

 

Key Points

Benchmarks showing falling LCOE for offshore wind, onshore wind, and solar PV, driven by larger turbines and lower CAPEX

✅ Offshore wind LCOE $78/MWh; $53-64/MWh in DK/NL excl. transmission

✅ Onshore wind $47/MWh; solar PV $51/MWh, best $26-36/MWh

✅ Cost drivers: 10MW turbines, lower CAPEX/OPEX, weak China demand

 

World offshore wind costs have fallen 32% from just a year ago and 12% compared with the first half of 2019, according to a BNEF long-term outlook from BloombergNEF.

In its latest Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE) Update, BloombergNEF said its current global benchmark LCOE estimate for offshore wind is $78 a megawatt-hour.

“New offshore wind projects throughout Europe, including the UK's build-out, now deploy turbines with power ratings up to 10MW, unlocking CAPEX and OPEX savings,” BloombergNEF said.

In Denmark and the Netherlands, it expects the most recent projects financed to achieve $53-64/MWh excluding transmission.

New solar and onshore wind projects have reached parity with average wholesale power prices in California and parts of Europe, while in China levelised costs are below the benchmark average regulated coal price, according to BloombergNEF.

The company's global benchmark levelized cost figures for onshore wind and PV projects financed in the last six months are at $47 and $51 a megawatt-hours, underscoring that renewables are now the cheapest new electricity option in many regions, down 6% and 11% respectively compared with the first half of 2019.

BloombergNEF said for wind this is mainly down to a fall in the price of turbines – 7% lower on average globally compared with the end of 2018.

In China, the world’s largest solar market, the CAPEX of utility-scale PV plants has dropped 11% in the last six months, reaching $0.57m per MW.

“Weak demand for new plants in China has left developers and engineering, procurement and construction firms eager for business, and this has put pressure on CAPEX,” BloombergNEF said.

It added that estimates of the cheapest PV projects financed recently – in India, Chile and Australia – will be able to achieve an LCOE of $27-36/MWh, assuming competitive returns for their equity investors.

Best-in-class onshore wind farms in Brazil, India, Mexico and Texas can reach levelized costs as low as $26-31/MWh already, the research said.

Programs such as the World Bank wind program are helping developing countries accelerate wind deployment as costs continue to drop.

BloombergNEF associate in the energy economics team Tifenn Brandily said: “This is a three- stage process. In phase one, new solar and wind get cheaper than new gas and coal plants on a cost-of- energy basis.

“In phase two, renewables reach parity with power prices. In phase three, they become even cheaper than running existing thermal plants.

“Our analysis shows that phase one has now been reached for two-thirds of the global population.

“Phase two started with California, China and parts of Europe. We expect phase three to be reached on a global scale by 2030.

“As this all plays out, thermal power plants will increasingly be relegated to a balancing role, looking for opportunities to generate when the sun doesn’t shine or the wind doesn’t blow.”

 

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Cleaning up Canada's electricity is critical to meeting climate pledges

Canada Clean Electricity Standard targets a net-zero grid by 2035, using carbon pricing, CO2 caps, and carbon capture while expanding renewables and interprovincial trade to decarbonize power in Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Ontario.

 

Key Points

A federal plan to reach a net-zero grid by 2035 using CO2 caps, carbon pricing, carbon capture, renewables, and trade.

✅ CO2 caps and rising carbon prices through 2050

✅ Carbon capture required on gas plants in high-emitting provinces

✅ Renewables build-out and interprovincial trade to balance supply

 

A new tool has been proposed in the federal election campaign as a way of eradicating the carbon emissions from Canada’s patchwork electricity system. 

As the country’s need for power grows through the decarbonization of transportation, industry and space heating, the Liberal Party climate plan is proposing a clean energy standard to help Canada achieve a 100% net-zero-electricity system by 2035, aligning with Canada’s net-zero by 2050 target overall. 

The proposal echoes a report released August 19 by the David Suzuki Foundation and a group of environmental NGOs that also calls for a clean electricity standard, capping power-sector emissions, and tighter carbon-pricing regulations. The report, written by Simon Fraser University climate economist Mark Jaccard and data analyst Brad Griffin, asserts that these policies would effectively decarbonize Canada’s electricity system by 2035.

“Fuel switching from dirty fossil fuels to clean electricity is an essential part of any serious pathway to transition to a net-zero energy system by 2050,” writes Tom Green, climate policy advisor to the Suzuki Foundation, in a foreword to the report. The pathway to a net-zero grid is even more important as Canada switches from fossil fuels to electric vehicles, space heating and industrial processes, even as the Canadian Gas Association warns of high transition costs.

Under Jaccard and Griffin’s proposal, a clean electricity standard would be established to regulate CO2 emissions specifically from power plants across Canada. In addition, the plan includes an increase in the carbon price imposed on electricity system releases, combined with tighter regulation to ensure that 100% of the carbon price set by the federal government is charged to electricity producers. The authors propose that the current scheduled carbon price of $170 per tonne of CO2 in 2030 should rise to at least $300 per tonne by 2050.

In Alberta, Saskatchewan, Ontario, New Brunswick and Nova Scotia, the 2030 standard would mean that all fossil-fuel-powered electricity plants would require carbon capture in order to comply with the standard. The provinces would be given until 2035 to drop to zero grams CO2 per kilowatt hour, matching the 2030 standard for low-carbon provinces (Quebec, British Columbia, Manitoba, Newfoundland and Labrador and Prince Edward Island). 

Alberta and Saskatchewan targeted 
Canada has a relatively clean electricity system, as shown by nationwide progress in electricity, with about 80% of the country’s power generated from low- or zero-emission sources. So the biggest impacts of the proposal will be felt in the higher-carbon provinces of Alberta and Saskatchewan. Alberta has a plan to switch from coal-based electric power to natural gas generation by 2023. But Saskatchewan is still working on its plan. Under the Jaccard-Griffin proposal, these provinces would need to install carbon capture on their gas-fired plants by 2030 and carbon-negative technology (biomass with carbon capture, for instance) by 2035. Saskatchewan has been operating carbon capture and storage technology at its Boundary Dam power station since 2014, but large-scale rollout at power plants has not yet been achieved in Canada. 

With its heavy reliance on nuclear and hydro generation, Ontario’s electricity supply is already low carbon. Natural gas now accounts for about 7% of the province’s grid, but the clean electricity standard could pose a big challenge for the province as it ramps up natural-gas-generated power to replace electricity from its aging Pickering station, scheduled to go out of service in 2025, even as a fully renewable grid by 2030 remains a debated goal. Pickering currently supplies about 14% of Ontario’s power. 

Ontario doesn’t have large geological basins for underground CO2 storage, as Alberta and Saskatchewan do, so the report says Ontario will have to build up its solar and wind generation significantly as part of Canada’s renewable energy race, or find a solution to capture CO2 from its gas plants. The Ontario Clean Air Alliance has kicked off a campaign to encourage the Ontario government to phase out gas-fired generation by purchasing power from Quebec or installing new solar or wind power.

As the report points out, the federal government has Supreme Court–sanctioned authority to impose carbon regulations, such as a clean electricity standard, and carbon pricing on the provinces, with significant policy implications for electricity grids nationwide.

The federal government can also mandate a national approach to CO2 reduction regardless of fuel source, encouraging higher-carbon provinces to work with their lower-carbon neighbours. The Atlantic provinces would be encouraged to buy power from hydro-heavy Newfoundland, for example, while Ontario would be encouraged to buy power from Quebec, Saskatchewan from Manitoba, and Alberta from British Columbia.

The Canadian Electricity Association, the umbrella organization for Canada’s power sector, did not respond to a request for comment on the Jaccard-Griffin report or the Liberal net-zero grid proposal.

Just how much more clean power will Canada need? 
The proposal has also kicked off a debate, and an IEA report underscores rising demand, about exactly how much additional electricity Canada will need in coming decades.

In his 2015 report, Pathways to Deep Decarbonization in Canada, energy and climate analyst Chris Bataille estimated that to achieve Canada’s climate net-zero target by 2050 the country will need to double its electricity use by that year.

Jaccard and Griffin agree with this estimate, saying that Canada will need more than 1,200 terawatt hours of electricity per year in 2050, up from about 640 terawatt hours currently.

But energy and climate consultant Ralph Torrie (also director of research at Corporate Knights) disputes this analysis.

He says large-scale programs to make the economy more energy efficient could substantially reduce electricity demand. A major program to install heat pumps and replace inefficient electric heating in homes and businesses could save 50 terawatt hours of consumption on its own, according to a recent report from Torrie and colleague Brendan Haley. 

Put in context, 50 terawatt hours would require generation from 7,500 large wind turbines. Applied to electric vehicle charging, 50 terawatt hours could power 10 million electric vehicles.

While Torrie doesn’t dispute the need to bring the power system to net-zero, he also doesn’t believe the “arm-waving argument that the demand for electricity is necessarily going to double because of the electrification associated with decarbonization.” 

 

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NRC Makes Available Turkey Point Renewal Application

Turkey Point Subsequent License Renewal seeks NRC approval for FP&L to extend Units 3 and 4, three-loop pressurized water reactors near Homestead, Miami; public review, docketing, and an Atomic Safety and Licensing Board hearing.

 

Key Points

The NRC is reviewing FP&L's request to extend Turkey Point Units 3 and 4 operating licenses by 20 years.

✅ NRC will docket if application is complete

✅ Public review and opportunity for adjudicatory hearing

✅ Units commissioned in 1972 and 1973, near Miami

 

The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission said Thursday that it had made available the first-ever "subsequent license renewal application," amid milestones at nuclear power projects worldwide, which came from Florida Power and Light and applies to the company's Turkey Point Nuclear Generating Station's Units 3 and 4.

The Nuclear Regulatory Commission recently made available for public review the first-ever subsequent license renewal application, which Florida Power & Light Company submitted on Jan. 1.

In the application, FP&L requests an additional 20 years for the operating licenses of Turkey Point Nuclear Generating Units 3 and 4, three-loop, pressurized water reactors located in Homestead, Florida, where the Florida PSC recently approved a municipal solid waste energy purchase, approximately 40 miles south of Miami.

The NRC approved the initial license renewal in June 2002, as new reactors at Georgia's Vogtle plant continue to take shape nationwide. Unit 3 is currently licensed to operate through July 19, 2032. Unit 4 is licensed to operate through April 10, 2033.

#google#

NRC staff is currently reviewing the application, while a new U.S. reactor has recently started up, underscoring broader industry momentum. If the staff determines the application is complete, they will docket it and publish a notice of opportunity to request an adjudicatory hearing before the NRC’s Atomic Safety and Licensing Board.

The first-ever subsequent license renewal application, submitted by Florida Power & Light Company asks for an additional 20 years for the already-renewed operating licenses of Turkey Point, even as India moves to revive its nuclear program internationally, which are currently set to expire in July of 2032 and April of 2033. The two thee-loop, pressurized water reactors, located about 40 miles south of Miami, were commissioned in July 1972 and April 1973.

If the application is determined to be complete, the staff will docket it and publish a notice of opportunity to request an adjudicatory hearing before the NRC’s Atomic Safety and Licensing Board, the agency said.

The application is available for public review on the NRC website. Copies of the application will be available at the Homestead Branch Library in Homestead, the Naraja Branch Library in Homestead and the South Dade Regional Library in Miami.

 

 

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Battery-electric buses hit the roads in Metro Vancouver

TransLink Electric Bus Pilot launches zero-emission service in Metro Vancouver, cutting greenhouse gas emissions with fast-charging stations on Route 100, supporting renewable energy goals alongside trolley buses, CNG, and hybrid fleets.

 

Key Points

TransLink's Metro Vancouver program deploying charging, zero-emission buses on Route 100 to cut emissions and fuel costs.

✅ Cuts ~100 tonnes GHG and saves $40k per bus annually

✅ Five-minute on-route charging at terminals on Route 100

✅ Pilot data to guide zero-emission fleet transition by 2050

 

TransLink's first battery-electric buses are taking to the roads in Metro Vancouver as part of a pilot project to reduce emissions, joining other initiatives like electric school buses in B.C. that aim to cut pollution in transportation.

The first four zero-emission buses picked up commuters in Vancouver, Burnaby and  New Westminster on Wednesday. Six more are expected to be brought in, and similar launches like Edmonton's first electric bus are underway across Canada.

"With so many people taking transit in Vancouver today, electric buses will make a real difference," said Merran Smith, executive director of Clean Energy Canada, a think tank at Simon Fraser University, in a release.

According to TransLink, each bus is expected to reduce 100 tonnes of greenhouse gas emissions and save $40,000 in fuel costs per year compared to a conventional diesel bus.

"Buses already help tackle climate change by getting people out of cars, and Vancouver is ahead of the game with its electric trolleys," Smith said.

She added there is still more work to be done to get every bus off diesel, as seen with the TTC's battery-electric buses rollout in Toronto.

The buses will run along the No. 100 route connecting Vancouver and New Westminster. They recharge — it takes about five minutes — at new charging stations installed at both ends of the route while passengers load and unload or while the driver has a short break. 

Right now, more than half of TransLink's fleet currently operates with clean technology, offering insights alongside Toronto's large battery-electric fleet for other cities. 

In addition to the four new battery-electric buses, the fleet also includes hundreds of zero-emission electric trolley buses, compressed natural gas buses and hybrid diesel-electric buses, while cities like Montreal's first STM electric buses continue to expand adoption.

"Our iconic trolley buses have been running on electricity since 1948 and we're proud to integrate the first battery-electric buses to our fleet," said TransLink CEO Kevin Desmond in a press release.

TransLink has made it a goal to operate its fleet with 100 per cent renewable energy in all operations by 2050. Desmond says, the new buses are one step closer to meeting that goal.

The new battery-electric buses are part of a two-and-a-half year pilot project that looks at the performance, maintenance, and customer experience of making the switch to electric, complementing BC Hydro's vehicle-to-grid pilot initiative underway in the province.

 

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Hydro-Québec puts global ambitions on hold as crisis weighs on demand

Hydro-Que9bec COVID-19 M&A Pause signals a halt to international expansion as falling electricity demand, weaker exports, and revenue pressure shift capital to the Quebec economy, prioritizing domestic investment, strategic plan revisions, and risk management.

 

Key Points

Hydro-Que9bec COVID-19 M&A Pause halts overseas deals, shifting investment to Quebec as demand, exports and revenue fall.

✅ International M&A on hold; capital reallocated to Quebec projects

✅ Lower electricity demand reduces exports and spot prices

✅ Strategic plan and 2020 guidance revised downward

 

COVID-19 is forcing Hydro-Québec to pull the plug on its global ambitions — for now, even as its electricity ambitions have reopened old wounds in Newfoundland and Labrador in recent years.

Quebec’s state-owned power generator and distributor has put international mergers and acquisitions on hold for the foreseeable future because of the COVID-19 crisis, chief financial officer Jean-Hugues Lafleur said Friday.

Former chief executive officer Éric Martel, who left last month, had made foreign expansion a key tenet of his growth strategy.

“We’re in revision mode” as pertains to acquisitions, Lafleur told reporters on a conference call, as the company pursues a long-term strategy to wean the province off fossil fuels at home as well. “I don’t see how Hydro-Québec could take $5 billion now and invest it in Chile because we have an investment opportunity there. Instead, the $5 billion will be invested here to support the Quebec economy. We’re going to make sure the Quebec economy recovers the right way before we go abroad.”

Lafleur spoke after Hydro-Québec reported a 14-per-cent drop in first-quarter profit and warned full-year results will fall short of expectations as COVID-19 weighs on power demand.

Net income in the three-month period ended March 31 was $1.53 billion, down from $1.77 billion a year ago, Hydro-Québec said in a statement. Revenue fell about six per cent to $4.37 billion.

“Due to the economic downturn resulting from the current crisis, we’re anticipating lower electricity sales in all of our markets,” Lafleur said. “Consequently, the financial outlook for 2020 set out in the strategic plan 2020–2024, which also reflects the province’s no-nuclear stance, will be revised downward.”

It’s still too early to determine the scope of the revision, the company said in its quarterly report. Hydro-Québec was targeting net income of between $2.8 billion and $3 billion in 2020, according to its strategic plan.

The first quarter was the utility’s last under Martel, who quit to take over at jetmaker Bombardier Inc. Quebec appointed former Énergir CEO Sophie Brochu to replace him, effective April 6.

First-quarter results “weren’t significantly affected” by the pandemic, Lafleur said on a conference call with reporters. Electricity sales generated $294 million less than a year ago due primarily to milder temperatures, he said.

Results will start to reflect COVID-19’s impact in the second quarter, though NB Power has signed three deals to bring more Quebec electricity into the province that could cushion some exports.

Electricity consumption in Quebec has fallen five per cent in the past two months, paced by an 11-per-cent plunge for commercial and institutional clients, and cities such as Ottawa saw a demand plunge during closures.

Industrial customers such as pulp and paper producers have also curbed power use, and it’s hard to see demand rebounding this year, Lafleur said.

“What we’ve lost since the start of the pandemic is not coming back,” he said.

Demand on export markets, meanwhile, has shrunk between six per cent and nine per cent since mid-March. The drop has been particularly steep in Ontario, reaching as much as 12 per cent, after the province chose not to renew its electricity deal with Quebec earlier this year, compared with declines of up to five per cent in New England and eight per cent in New York.

Spot prices in the U.S. have retreated in tandem, falling this week to as low as 1.5 U.S. cents per kilowatt-hour, Lafleur said. Hydro-Québec’s hedging strategy — which involves entering into fixed-price sales contracts about a year ahead of time — allowed the company to export power for an average of 4.9 U.S. cents per kilowatt-hour in the first quarter, compared with the 2.2 cents it would have otherwise made.

Investments will decline this year as construction activity proceeds at reduced speed, Lafleur said. Hydro-Québec was initially planning to invest about $4 billion in the province, he said, as it works to increase hydropower capacity to more than 37,000 MW across its fleet.

Physical distancing measures “are having an impact on productivity,” Lafleur said. “We can’t work the way we wanted, and project costs are going to be affected. Anytime we send workers north on a plane, we need to leave an empty seat beside them.”

 

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UK Anticipates a 16% Decrease in Energy Bills in April

UK Energy Price Cap Cut 2024 signals relief as wholesale gas prices fall; Ofgem price cap drops per Cornwall Insight, aided by LNG supply, mild winter, despite Red Sea tensions and Ukraine conflict impacts.

 

Key Points

A forecast cut to Great Britain's Ofgem price cap as wholesale gas falls, easing typical annual household bills in 2024.

✅ Cap falls from £1,928 to £1,620 in April 2024

✅ Forecast £1,497 in July, then about £1,541 from October

✅ Drivers: lower wholesale gas, LNG supply, mild winter

 

Households in Great Britain are set to experience a significant reduction in energy costs this spring, with bills projected to drop by over £300 annually. This decrease is primarily due to a decline in wholesale gas prices, offering some respite to those grappling with the cost of living crisis.

Cornwall Insight, a well-regarded industry analyst, predicts a 16% reduction in average bills from the previous quarter, potentially reaching the lowest levels since the onset of the Ukraine conflict.

The industry’s price cap, indicative of the average annual bill for a typical household, is expected to decrease from the current £1,928, set earlier this month, to £1,620 in April – a reduction of £308 and £40 less than previously forecasted in December, as ministers consider ending the gas-electricity price link to improve market resilience.

Concerns about escalating tensions in the Red Sea, where Houthi rebels have disrupted global shipping, initially led analysts to fear an increase in wholesale oil prices and subsequent impact on household energy costs.

Contrary to these concerns, oil prices have remained relatively stable, and European gas reserves have been higher than anticipated during a mild winter, with European gas prices returning to pre-Ukraine war levels since November.

Cornwall Insight anticipates that energy prices will continue to be comparatively low through 2024. They predict a further decline to £1,497 for a typical annual bill from July, followed by a slight increase to £1,541 starting in October.

This forecast is a welcome development for Britons who have been dealing with increased expenses across various sectors, from food to utilities, amidst persistently high inflation rates, with energy-driven EU inflation hitting lower-income households hardest across member states.

Energy bills saw a steep rise in 2021, which escalated further due to the Ukraine conflict in 2022, driving up wholesale gas prices. This surge prompted government intervention to subsidize bills, with the UK price cap estimated to cost around £89bn to the public purse, capping costs to a typical household at £2,500.

Cornwall Insight noted that the supply of liquified natural gas to Europe had not been as adversely affected by the Red Sea disruptions as initially feared. Moreover, the UK has been well-supplied with gas from the US, which has become a more significant supplier since the Ukraine war, even as US electricity prices have risen to multi-decade highs. Contributing factors also include lower gas prices in Asia, mild weather, and robust gas availability.

Craig Lowrey, a principal consultant at Cornwall Insight, remarked that concerns about Red Sea events driving up energy prices have not materialized, allowing households to expect a reduction in prices.

On Monday, the next-month wholesale gas price dropped by 4% to 65p a therm.

However, Lowrey cautioned that a complete return to pre-crisis energy bill levels remains unlikely due to ongoing market impacts from shifting away from Russian energy sources and persistent geopolitical tensions, as well as policy changes such as Britain’s Energy Security Bill shaping market reforms.

Richard Neudegg, director of regulation at Uswitch, welcomed the potential further reduction of the price cap in April. However, he pointed out that this offers little solace to households currently struggling with high winter energy costs during the winter. Neudegg urged Ofgem, the energy regulator, to prompt suppliers to reintroduce more competitive and affordable fixed-price deals.

 

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