Will electric cars survive?

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Lowell Leifso hasn't filled up at a gas station once since he bought a sparkling grey Toyota RAV4 earlier this year.

He hasn't needed to.

His commuter vehicle would look like any of the other popular Toyota crossovers on the road, if it weren't for the bright "electric vehicle" decals stuck to it.

"It's quite an attention grabber," Leifso admits. "People ask questions like, 'Did you build it? Where can I get one?'"

Leifso's 2003 model was among the last of the plug-in electric vehicles Toyota retailed in California before shutting down its line.

It's proven its worth to Leifso already.

Although acceleration is noticeably sluggish, the car can zip down the highway at 130 km/h.

And with a range of about 160 km, it costs about $2 to "fill up" when he charges up the RAV4 at home through a paddle that slips in under the front grill.

That's about one-fifth of the cost of filling up a regular gas-powered RAV4, Leifso says.

And as gas prices head north of $1 per litre and car companies continue their public struggle to survive, the interest in alternative fuel technologies is only spiking.

Today, most major manufacturers have rushed to promise electric vehicles for the market within years. Canadian auto-parts magnate Frank Stronach wants to mass-produce electric cars within three years.

But what are the chances of the technology succeeding? Is the idea that electric vehicles will be widespread in just a few years merely a pipe dream?

"It's never been more serious," says auto industry analyst Dennis DesRosiers, of manufacturers' renewed interest in electric vehicles. "They're investing billions into developing the technology."

But still, DesRosiers doesn't believe there will be wide acceptance of the technology any time soon.

"Electric vehicles' ability to get into the mainstream is probably at least a decade, if not two decades, out into the future," he says. "It's just that daunting a technological challenge."

He points to the popularity of hybrid vehicles, which have been readily available for several years now.

Out of 1.6 million new vehicles sold in Canada last year, he says, only 25,000 were hybrids.

There are significant barriers to widespread acceptance as well as a wide range of other alternative technologies from biodiesel and ethanol to solar and hydrogen power.

"Promoters of electric vehicles tend to isolate themselves, that they are the only competing technology to gas. There are actually 10 or 12 different technologies."

Some manufacturers, too, are casting a wide net.

"We have not backed any particular solution," says Honda Canada executive vice-president Jerry Chenkin, who calls his company's strategy a "portfolio approach."

"We are recognizing the fact that nobody knows which solution will be the best in the end. The key for us is to invest in several different alternative solutions."

Proponents of electrical vehicles, however, see the technology only growing.

"It is where cell phones were in 1985," says John Stonier, of the Vancouver Electric Vehicle Association.

"The cell phone in 1985 was a brick. It had a huge battery and there was very little production. The electric car industry is at the exact same point."

Even with today's technology, Stonier argues, electric vehicles would be fine for most consumers, getting them from point A to B and back in time for a charge-up.

"People's needs are actually a lot less than they think. If you look at the statistics, only one per cent of trips made with a car are above 100 miles long."

Government policy has to keep up with investments to stimulate the industry, as well as supports for the infrastructure needed to support electric vehicles, Stonier says.

Behind the scenes, steps are being taken to streamline market acceptance for EVs. Developer Concord Pacific, for example, recently announced it would build a condominium project in Vancouver with a parkade equipped to handle EV charging needs.

But provincial and federal authorities are still trying to predict exactly what kind of infrastructure will be needed to handle widespread EV acceptance.

BC Hydro, for example, is part of a provincial working group studying the demands plug-in EVs may have on infrastructure.

"We've been monitoring it," says spokesperson Dag Sharman. "The amount of electricity they would use is something we simply don't know because we don't know how many electric vehicles there would be."

A federal working group is tackling similar issues. The federally coordinated Canadian Electric Vehicle Technology Roadmap, or evTRM, is composed of industry players and is set to submit its recommendations to Ottawa.

However, initial projections for electric vehicles in Canada are modest.

By 2018, the group is envisioning 500,000 highway-capable plug-in EVs on the road, a number that adds up to about 15 per cent of new vehicles sold in Canada over the next decade, the group says.

It's not an earth-shattering number, admits Mike Elwood, chair of evTRM's steering committee.

"It's enough to get the ball rolling," says Elwood, vice-president of marketing at Azure Dynamics, a player in electric drive technology for commercial vehicles.

"Even though I personally would like to see it at 100 per cent, I know that's probably not attainable."

But although he admits the figure is conservative compared to the paradigm shift many observers see as necessary for the auto industry, it's still a daunting leap from today, he says.

"We don't have time to waste. We don't have time to sit there and say, well, in 10 years, maybe things will be different," Elwood said.

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Nonstop Records For U.S. Natural-Gas-Based Electricity

U.S. Natural Gas Power Demand is surging for electricity generation amid summer heat, with ERCOT, Texas grid reserves tight, EIA reporting coal and nuclear retirements, renewables intermittency, and pipeline expansions supporting combined-cycle capacity and prices.

 

Key Points

It is rising use of natural gas for power, driven by summer heat, plant retirements, and new combined-cycle capacity.

✅ ERCOT reserve margin 9%, below 14% target in Texas

✅ Gas share of U.S. power near 40-43% this summer

✅ Coal and nuclear retirements shift capacity to combined cycle

 

As the hot months linger, it will be natural gas that is leaned on most to supply the electricity that we need to run our air conditioning loads on the grid and keep us cool.

And this is surely a great and important thing: "Heat causes most weather-related deaths, National Weather Service says."

Generally, U.S. gas demand for power in summer is 35-40% higher than what it was five years ago, with so much more coming (see Figure).

The good news is regions across the country are expected to have plenty of reserves to keep up with power demand.

The only exception is ERCOT, covering 90% of the electric load in Texas, where a 9% reserve margin is expected, below the desired 14%.

Last summer, however, ERCOT’s reserve margin also was below the desired level, yet the grid operator maintained system reliability with no load curtailments.

Simply put, other states are very lucky that Texas has been able to maintain gas at 50% of its generation, despite being more than justified to drastically increase that.

At about 1,600 Bcf per year, the flatness of gas for power demand in Texas since 2000 has been truly remarkable, especially since Lone Star State production is up 50% since then.

Increasingly, other U.S. states (and even countries) are wanting to import huge amounts of gas from Texas, a state that yields over 25% of all U.S. output.

Yet if Texas justifiably ever wants to utilize more of its own gas, others would be significantly impacted.

At ~480 TWh per year, if Texas was a country, it would be 9th globally for power use, even ahead of Brazil, a fast growing economy with 212 million people, and France, a developed economy with 68 million people.

In the near-term, this explains why a sweltering prolonged heat wave in July in Texas, with a hot Houston summer setting new electricity records, is the critical factor that could push up still very low gas prices.

But for California, our second highest gas using state, above-average snowpack should provide a stronger hydropower for this summer season relative to 2018.

Combined, Texas and California consume about 25% of U.S. gas, with Texas' use double that of California.

 

Across the U.S., gas could supply a record 40-43% of U.S. electricity this summer even as the EIA expects solar and wind to be larger sources of generation across the mix

Our gas used for power has increased 35-40% over the past five years, and January power generation also jumped on the year, highlighting broad momentum.

Our gas used for power has increased 35-40% over the past five years. DATA SOURCE: EIA; JTC

Indeed, U.S. natural gas for electricity has continued to soar, even as overall electricity consumption has trended lower in some years, at nearly 10,700 Bcf last year, a 16% rise from 2017 and easily the highest ever.

Gas is expected to supply 37% of U.S. power this year, even as coal-fired generation saw a brief uptick in 2021 in EIA data, versus 27% just five years ago (see Figure).

Capacity wise, gas is sure to continue to surge its share 45% share of the U.S. power system.

"More than 60% of electric generating capacity installed in 2018 was fueled by natural gas."

We know that natural gas will continue to be the go-to power source: coal and nuclear plants are retiring, and while growing, wind and solar are too intermittent, geography limited, and transmission short to compensate like natural gas can.

"U.S. coal power capacity has fallen by a third since 2010," and last year "16 gigawatts (16,000 MW) of U.S. coal-fired power plants retired."

This year, some 2,000 MW of coal was retired in February alone, with 7,420 MW expected to be closed in 2019.

Ditto for nuclear.

Nuclear retirements this year include Pilgrim, Massachusetts’s only nuclear plant, and Three Mile Island in Pennsylvania.

This will take a combined ~1,600 MW of nuclear capacity offline.

Another 2,500 MW and 4,300 MW of nuclear are expected to be leaving the U.S. power system in 2020 and 2021, respectively.

As more nuclear plants close, EIA projects that net electricity generation from U.S. nuclear power reactors will fall by 17% by 2025.

From 2019-2025 alone, EIA expects U.S. coal capacity to plummet nearly 25% to 176,000 MW, with nuclear falling 15% to 83,000 MW.

In contrast, new combined cycle gas plants will grow capacity almost 30% to around 310,000 MW.

Lower and lower projected commodity prices for gas encourage this immense gas build-out, not to mention non-stop increases in efficiency for gas-based units.

Remember that these are official U.S. Department of Energy estimates, not coming from the industry itself.

In other words, our Department of Energy concludes that gas is the future.

Our hotter and hotter summers are therefore more and more becoming: "summers for natural gas"

Ultimately, this shows why the anti-pipeline movement is so dangerous.

"Affordable Energy Coalition Highlights Ripple Effect of Natural Gas Moratorium."

In April, President Trump signed two executive orders to promote energy infrastructure by directing federal agencies to remove bottlenecks for gas transport into the Northeast in particular, where New England oil-fired generation has spiked, and to streamline federal reviews of border-crossing pipelines and other infrastructure.

Builders, however, are not relying on outside help: all they know is that more U.S. gas demand is a constant, so more infrastructure is mandatory.

They are moving forward diligently: for example, there are now some 27 pipelines worth $33 billion already in the works in Appalachia.

 

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New York State Moratorium on Utility Disconnections During Emergencies

New York Utility Disconnection Ban protects residents during state emergencies, covering electric, gas, water, telecommunications, cable, and internet services, with penalties for noncompliance and options like deferred payment agreements and consumer protections.

 

Key Points

A proposed law barring shutoffs in state emergencies across electric, gas, water, telecom, cable, and internet.

✅ Applies during declared state and local emergencies statewide.

✅ Covers electric, gas, water, telecom, cable, and internet services.

✅ Noncompliance triggers penalties; payment plans required for arrears.

 

Governor Andrew M. Cuomo has announced a proposal to prohibit utility disconnections in regions that are under a state of emergency, addressing the energy insecurity many households face, as part of the 2021 State of the State. The Governor will propose legislation that will apply to electric, gas, water, telecommunications, cable and internet services. Utilities that fail to comply will be subject to penalties.

“In a year in which we dealt with an unprecedented pandemic, ferocious storms added insult to injury by knocking out power for hundreds of thousands of New Yorkers,” Governor Cuomo said. “Utility companies provide essential services, and we need to make sure they continue to provide them, rain or shine. That’s why we’re proposing legislation to make sure that New Yorkers, especially those living in regions under states of emergency, have access to these critical services to provide for themselves and their families.”

Governor Cuomo has taken a series of actions to protect New Yorkers’ access to utilities during the COVID-19 pandemic, including a suspension of shut-offs in New York and New Jersey, among other measures. Last year, the Governor signed legislation extending a moratorium that prevents utility companies from disconnecting utilities to residential households that are struggling with their bills due to the COVID-19 pandemic, a move mirrored by reconnection efforts in Ontario by Hydro One. Utility companies must instead offer these individuals a deferred payment agreement on any past-due balance. 

On November 19, Governor Cuomo announced that Con Edison now faces $25 million in penalties and possible license revocation from the New York State Public Service Commission, amid a broader review of retail energy markets by state regulators, following an investigation into the utility’s failed response during large-scale power outages in Manhattan and Brooklyn in July 2019. On November 2, Governor Cuomo announced that more than $328 million in home heating aid is now available, similar to Ontario bill support during the pandemic, for low- and middle-income New Yorkers who need assistance keeping their homes warm during the coming winter season.

The Governor has previously enacted some of the strongest and most progressive consumer protection and assistance programs in the country, including smart streetlights in Syracuse that reduce energy costs, and other initiatives. Governor Cuomo established New York’s energy affordability policy in 2016, as states pursue renewable energy ambitions that can affect rates, underscoring the need for affordability. The policy extended energy bill support to more than 152,000 additional New York families, ensuring that more than 920,000 New York families spend no more than 6 percent of their income on energy bills. Through this program, New York commits more than $238 million annually helping to keep the lights and heat on for our most vulnerable New Yorkers, while actively striving to expand coverage to additional families.

 

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Cal ISO Warns Rolling Blackouts Possible, Calls For Conservation As Power Grid Strains

Cal ISO Flex Alert urges Southern California energy conservation as a Stage 2 emergency strains the power grid, with potential rolling blackouts during peak hours from 3 to 10 p.m., if demand exceeds supply.

 

Key Points

A statewide call to conserve power during high demand, issued by the grid operator to prevent rolling blackouts.

✅ Stage 2 emergency signals severe grid strain

✅ Peak Flex Alert hours: 3 to 10 p.m. statewide

✅ Set thermostats to 78 and avoid major appliances

 

Residents and businesses across Southern California were urged to conserve power Tuesday afternoon amid ongoing electricity inequities across the state as the manager of the state’s power grid warned rolling blackouts could be imminent for some power customers.

The California Independent System Operator (Cal ISO), which manages the state power grid, declared a Stage 2 emergency as of 2:30 p.m., indicating severe strain on the electrical system, similar to a recent grid alert in Alberta that relied on reserves.

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Rolling blackouts for some customers could occur in a Stage 3 emergency, distinct from the intentional shut-offs some utilities use to reduce wildfire risk.

Cal ISO issued a statewide Flex Alert in effect from 3 to 10 p.m. Tuesday and Wednesday, with conservation considered especially critical during those hours, a concern heightened by pandemic-era grid operations this year.

Officials told reporters rolling blackouts might be avoided Tuesday evening if residents repeat the level of conservation seen Monday.
“If we can get the same sort of response we got yesterday, we can minimize this, or perhaps avoid it altogether,” Cal-ISO President/CEO Steve Berberich said, noting that some operators have even planned staff lockdowns during COVID-19 to maintain reliability.

Cal-ISO controls roughly 80% of the state’s power grid through Southern California Edison, Pacific Gas and Electric Co., with the utility recently restoring power after shut-offs in affected communities, and San Diego Gas & Electric.

Residents are urged to set thermostats at 78 in the afternoon and evening hours and avoiding the use of air conditioning and major appliances during the Flex Alert hours, as utilities like PG&E prepare for winter storms to improve resilience.

 

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Ontario utilities team up to warn customers about ongoing scams

Ontario Utility Scam Alert: protect against phishing, spoofed calls, texts, and emails, disconnection threats, and demands for prepaid cards or bitcoin. Tips from Alectra, Elexicon, Hydro One, Hydro Ottawa, and Toronto Hydro.

 

Key Points

A joint warning by Ontario utilities on tactics and steps to prevent customer fraud, phishing, and spoofed contacts.

✅ Verify bills; call your utility using the official number.

✅ Ignore links; do not accept unexpected e-transfers.

✅ Never pay with gift cards, prepaid cards, or bitcoin.

 

Five of Ontario's largest utilities have joined forces to raise awareness about ongoing sophisticated utility scams targeting utility customers.

Some common tactics fraudsters use to target Ontarians include impersonation of the local utility or its employees; sending threatening phone calls, texts and emails; or showing up in-person at a customer's home or business and requesting personal information or payment. The requests can include pressure for immediate payment, threats to disconnect service the same day, and demands to purchase prepaid debit cards, gift cards or bitcoin.

The utilities are encouraging all customers to protect themselves and are providing them with the following tips to stay safe, noting that customers want more choice and flexibility in how they manage accounts:

  • Never make a payment for a charge that isn't listed on your most recent bill
  • Ignore text messages or emails with suspicious links promising refunds
  • Don't call the number provided to you — instead, call your utility directly to check the status of your account
  • Only provide personal information or details about your account when you have initiated the contact with the utility representative  
  • Utility companies will never threaten immediate disconnection for non-payment, and many offer relief programs during hardship
  • If you feel threatened in any way, contact your local police
  • Steps you can take to protect yourself against fraud:

Take five minutes to ask additional questions and listen to your instincts — if something doesn't seem right, ask someone about it, and look for news of official utility support efforts that confirm legitimate outreach

  • Immediately hang up on suspicious phone calls
  • Don't click any links in emails/text messages asking you to accept electronic transfers
  • Avoid sharing personal information
  • Always compare bills to previous ones, including the dollar amount and account number, and stay informed about any official rate changes from your utility
  • Reporting suspicious behaviour, including suspected electricity theft, helps authorities

If you believe you may be a victim of fraud, please contact the Canadian Anti-Fraud Centre at 1-888-495-8501 and your local utility.

Customers can find more information at:

  • Alectra Utilities
  • Elexicon Energy
  • Hydro One
  • Hydro Ottawa 
  • Toronto Hydro

 

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Heat Exacerbates Electricity Struggles for 13,000 Families in America

Energy Poverty in Extreme Heat exposes vulnerable households to heatwaves, utility shutoffs, and unreliable grid infrastructure, straining public health. Community nonprofits, cooling centers, and policy reform aim to improve electricity access, resilience, and affordable energy.

 

Key Points

Without reliable, affordable power in heatwaves, health risks rise and cooling, food storage, and daily needs suffer.

✅ Risks: heat illness, dehydration, and indoor temperatures above 90F

✅ Causes: utility shutoffs, aging grid, unpaid bills, remote areas

✅ Relief: cooling centers, aid programs, weatherization, bill credits

 

In a particular pocket of America, approximately 13,000 families endure the dual challenges of sweltering heat and living without electricity, and the broader risk of summer shut-offs highlights how widespread these pressures have become across the country. This article examines the factors contributing to their plight, the impact of living without electricity during hot weather, and efforts to alleviate these hardships.

Challenges Faced by Families

For these 13,000 families, daily life is significantly impacted by the absence of electricity, especially during the scorching summer months. Without access to cooling systems such as air conditioners or fans, residents are exposed to dangerously high temperatures, which can lead to heat-related illnesses and discomfort, particularly among vulnerable populations such as children, the elderly, and individuals with health conditions, where electricity's role in public health became especially evident.

Causes of Electricity Shortages

The reasons behind the electricity shortages vary. In some cases, it may be due to economic challenges that prevent families from paying utility bills, resulting in disconnections. Other factors include outdated or unreliable electrical infrastructure in underserved communities, as reflected in a recent grid vulnerability report that underscores systemic risks, where maintenance and upgrades are often insufficient to meet growing demand.

Impact of Extreme Heat

During heatwaves, the lack of electricity exacerbates health risks and quality of life issues for affected families, aligning with reports of more frequent outages across the U.S. Furthermore, the absence of refrigeration and cooking facilities can compromise food safety and nutritional intake, further impacting household well-being.

Community Support and Resilience

Despite these challenges, communities and organizations often rally to support families living without electricity. Local nonprofits, community centers, and government agencies provide assistance such as distributing fans, organizing cooling centers, and delivering essentials like bottled water and non-perishable food items during heatwaves to alleviate immediate hardships and improve summer blackout preparedness in vulnerable neighborhoods.

Long-term Solutions

Addressing electricity access issues requires comprehensive, long-term solutions. These may include policy reforms to ensure equitable access to affordable energy, investments in upgrading infrastructure in underserved areas, and expanding financial assistance programs to help families maintain uninterrupted electricity service, in recognition that climate change risks increasingly stress the grid.

Advocacy and Awareness

Advocacy efforts play a crucial role in raising awareness about the challenges faced by families living without electricity and advocating for sustainable solutions. By highlighting these issues, community leaders, activists, and policymakers can work together to drive policy changes, secure funding for infrastructure improvements, and promote energy efficiency initiatives, drawing lessons from Canada's harsh-weather grid exposures that illustrate regional vulnerabilities.

Building Resilience

Building resilience in vulnerable communities involves not only improving access to reliable electricity but also enhancing preparedness for extreme weather events. This includes developing emergency response plans, educating residents about heat safety measures, and fostering community partnerships to support those in need during crises.

Conclusion

As temperatures rise and climate impacts intensify, addressing the plight of families living without electricity becomes increasingly urgent. By prioritizing equitable access to energy, investing in resilient infrastructure, and fostering community resilience, stakeholders can work towards ensuring that all families have access to essential services, even during the hottest months of the year. Collaborative efforts between government, nonprofit organizations, and community members are essential in creating sustainable solutions that improve quality of life and promote health and well-being for all residents.

 

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Wind has become the ‘most-used’ source of renewable electricity generation in the US

U.S. Wind Generation surpassed hydroelectric output in 2019, EIA data shows, becoming the top renewable electricity source, driven by PTC incentives, expanded capacity, and utility-scale projects across states, boosting the national electricity mix.

 

Key Points

U.S. Wind Generation is the nation's top renewable, surpassing hydro as EIA-tracked capacity grows under PTC incentives.

✅ EIA: wind topped hydro in 2019, over 300M MWh generated

✅ PTC credits spurred growth in utility-scale wind projects

✅ 103 GW installed; 77% added in the last decade

 

Last year saw wind power surging in the U.S. to overtake hydroelectric generation for the first time, according to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

Released Wednesday, the figures from the EIA’s “Electric Power Monthly” report show that yearly wind generation hit a little over 300 million megawatt hours (MWh) in 2019. This was roughly 26 million MWh more than hydroelectric production.

Wind now represents the “most-used renewable electricity generation source” in the U.S., the EIA said, and renewables hit a 28% monthly record in April in later data.

Overall, total renewable electricity generation — which includes sources such as solar's 4.7% share in 2022 as one example, geothermal and landfill gas — at utility scale facilities hit more than 720 million MWh in 2019, compared to just under 707 million MWh in 2018. To put things in perspective, generation from coal came to more than 966 million MWh in 2019, while renewables surpassed coal in 2022 nationally according to later analyses.

According to the EIA’s “Today in Energy” briefing, which was also published Wednesday, generation from wind power has grown “steadily” across the last decade, and by 2020, renewables became the second-most prevalent source in the U.S. power mix.

This, it added, was partly down to the extension of the Production Tax Credit, or PTC, amid favorable government plans supporting solar and wind growth. According to the EIA, the PTC is a system which gives operators a tax credit per kilowatt hour of renewable electricity production. It applies for the first 10 years of a facility’s operation.

At the end of 2019, the country was home to 103 gigawatts (GW) of wind capacity, with 77% of this being installed in the last decade, and wind capacity surpassed hydro in 2016 according to industry data. The U.S. is home 80 GW of hydroelectric capacity, according to the EIA.

“The past decade saw a steady increase in wind capacity across the country and we capped the decade with a monumental achievement for the industry in reaching more than 100 GW,” Tom Kiernan, the American Wind Energy Association’s CEO, said in a statement issued Thursday.

“And more wind energy is coming, as the industry is well into investing $62 billion in new projects over the next few years that put us on the path to achieving 20 percent of the nation’s electricity mix in 2030,” Kiernan went on to state.

“As a result, wind is positioned to remain the largest renewable energy generator in the country for the foreseeable future.”

 

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