Wind farms could drive bird species to extinction: conservationists

By Agence France-Presse


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More than 60 years after it was pushed to the edge of extinction, one of North America's rarest birds, the whooping crane, faces new danger from environmentally-friendly wind farms, conservationists warned.

"Companies want to put their farms where the best wind is, and that overlaps with the migration corridor of the whooping crane," Tom Stehn, the whooping crane coordinator of the US Fish and Wildlife Service, told AFP.

"There are areas where we know large numbers of whooping crane stop (during migration) and we would like wind companies to avoid those areas, with a good buffer zone," Stehn said on the eve of what is expected to be the biggest ever business to government conference in the United States on renewable energy.

The three-day Washington International Renewable Energy Conference (WIREC) is already under way.

The majestic whooping crane, which stands around five feet (1.5 meters) tall, was pushed to the edge of extinction last century.

Since 1941, when only 15 of the birds existed in the wild in North America, conservation groups have painstakingly built the whooping crane population back up to around 360 in the wild and 150 in captivity.

Whooping cranes migrate annually between wetlands on the coast of Texas and the Northwest Territories in Canada, flying a route that corresponds to the corridor wind companies are eying for their huge turbines as their industry expands.

Just recently, wind energy got a boost when the US House of Representatives voted to extend tax incentives for developers the renewable power source.

Non-profit organization Audubon, a nature conservancy group with a particular focus on birds, spoke out strongly in favor of the clean energy source but stressed that it should not be allowed to develop unchecked.

"We're very much in favor of wind power because we're so concerned about the other sources of energy that are contributing to global warming," said Greg Butcher, Audubon's director of bird conservation.

"The trick is to get the siting and the design of the turbines right so that big birds like the whooping crane can avoid collisions," he said.

But of greater concern than collisions with turbines was the reduction of natural habitat of the whooping crane and other birds found only in North America, said Butcher and Stehn.

Loss of natural habitat nearly drove the whooping crane to extinction in 1941, said Stehn.

"The taking away of the habitat is my biggest concern," he said.

"Whooping cranes need places to stop during migration. We would ask companies to assess the wetlands resources on their project site and surrounding it and make a judgement on what impact that might have on the whooping crane."

Environmentalists are holding talks with the wind industry to try to find a solution that would be good for birds while boosting the amount of power Americans get from wind, a "clean" energy source that is key in the fight against global warming.

"Audubon is really anxious to get this right, and we are talking with the industry about it," said Butcher, while Stehn said "substantial progress" has been made in talks held so far.

Wind farm development would not only affect the whooping crane but other bird species, both warned.

Stehn cited waterfowl while Butcher expressed fears for the prairie chicken, a member of the grouse family, which "does not nest near tall towers of any kind."

"When turbines are built on native grasslands, we're likely to lose breeding populations of these prairie grouse, which we have already lost from many of the eastern United States and which are declining in most of the states where they exist now," he said.

One subspecies of the prairie chicken, the heath hen, is extinct; another, called Attwater's prairie chicken, is endangered.

Birds are also in danger of colliding with powerlines, which up to now has been the biggest source of mortality to whooping cranes, according to Stehn, airing concern about how wind development will necessarily result in "more and more powerlines."

Wind energy provided electricity to one percent of U.S. homes last year and is projected to grow by 25 percent annually, according to the American Wind Energy Association (AWEA).

Most of the industry's expansion is planned for the breezy corridor that stretches northward from Texas to Canada, a chart on the website shows.

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First US coal plant in years opens where no options exist

Alaska Coal-Fired CHP Plant opens near Usibelli mine, supplying electricity and district heat to UAF; remote location without gas pipelines, low wind and solar potential, and high heating demand shaped fuel choice.

 

Key Points

A 17 MW coal CHP at UAF producing power and campus heat, chosen for remoteness and lack of gas pipelines.

✅ 17 MW generator supplying electricity and district heat

✅ Near Usibelli mine; limited pipeline access shapes fuel

✅ Alternative options like LNG, wind, solar not cost-effective

 

One way to boost coal in the US: Find a spot near a mine with no access to oil or natural gas pipelines, where it’s not particularly windy and it’s dark much of the year.

That’s how the first coal-fired plant to open in the U.S. since 2015 bucked the trend in an industry that’s seen scores of facilities close in recent years. A 17-megawatt generator, built for $245 million, is set to open in April at the University of Alaska Fairbanks, just 100 miles from the state’s only coal mine.

“Geography really drove what options are available to us,” said Kari Burrell, the university’s vice chancellor for administrative services, in an interview. “We are not saying this is ideal by any means.”

The new plant is arriving as coal fuels about 25 percent of electrical generation in the U.S., down from 45 percent a decade earlier, even as some forecasts point to a near-term increase in coal-fired generation in 2021. A near-record 18 coal plants closed in 2018, and 14 more are expected to follow this year, according to BloombergNEF.

The biggest bright spot for U.S. coal miners recently has been exports to overseas power plants. At home, one of the few growth areas has been in pizza ovens.

There are a handful of other U.S. coal power projects that have been proposed, including plans to build an 850 megawatt facility in Georgia and an 895 megawatt plant in Kansas, even as a Minnesota utility reports declining coal returns across parts of its portfolio. But Ashley Burke, a spokeswoman for the National Mining Association, said she’s unaware of any U.S. plants actively under development besides the one in Alaska.

 

Future of power

“The future of power in the U.S. does not include coal,” Tessie Petion, an analyst for HSBC Holdings Plc, said in a research note, a view echoed by regions such as Alberta retiring coal power early in their transition.

Fairbanks sits on the banks of the Chena River, amid the vast subarctic forests in the heart of Alaska. The oil and gas fields of the state’s North slope are 500 miles north. The nearest major port is in Anchorage, 350 miles south.

The university’s new plant is a combined heat and power generator, which will create steam both to generate electricity and heat campus buildings. Before opting for coal, the school looked into using liquid natural gas, wind and solar, bio-mass and a host of other options, as new projects in Southeast Alaska seek lower electricity costs across the region. None of them penciled out, said Mike Ruckhaus, a senior project manager at the university.

The project, financed with university and state-municipal bonds, replaces a coal plant that went into service in 1964. University spokeswoman Marmian Grimes said it’s worth noting that the new plant will emit fewer emissions.

The coal will come from Usibelli Coal Mine Inc., a family-owned business that produces between 1.2 and 2 million tons per year from a mine along the Alaska railroad, according to the company’s website.

While any new plant is good news for coal miners, Clarksons Platou Securities Inc. analyst Jeremy Sussman said this one is "an isolated situation."

“We think the best producers can hope for domestically is a slow down in plant closures,” he said, even as jurisdictions like Alberta close their last coal plant entirely.

 

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Duke Energy reaffirms capital investments in renewables and grid projects to deliver cleaner energy, economic growth

Duke Energy Clean Energy Strategy advances renewables, battery storage, grid modernization, and energy efficiency to cut carbon, retire coal, and target net-zero by 2050 across the Carolinas with robust IRPs and capital investments.

 

Key Points

Plan to expand renewables, storage, and grid upgrades to cut carbon and reach net-zero electricity by 2050.

✅ 56B investment in renewables, storage, and grid modernization

✅ Targets 50% carbon reduction by 2030 and net-zero by 2050

✅ Retires coal units; expands energy efficiency and IRPs

 

Duke Energy says that the company will continue advancing its ambitious clean energy goals without the Atlantic Coast Pipeline (ACP) by investing in renewables, battery storage, energy efficiency programs and grid projects that support U.S. electrification efforts.

Duke Energy, the nation's largest electric utility, unveils its new logo. (PRNewsFoto/Duke Energy) (PRNewsfoto/Duke Energy)

Duke Energy's $56 billion capital investment plan will deliver significant customer benefits and create jobs at a time when policymakers at all levels are looking for ways to rebuild the economy in 2020 and beyond. These investments will deliver cleaner energy for customers and communities while enhancing the energy grid to provide greater reliability and resiliency.

"Sustainability and the reduction of carbon emissions are closely tied to our region's success," said Lynn Good, Duke Energy Chair, President and CEO. "In our recent Climate Report, we shared a vision of a cleaner electricity future with an increasing focus on renewables and battery storage in addition to a diverse mix of zero-carbon nuclear, natural gas, hydro and energy efficiency programs.

"Achieving this clean energy vision will require all of us working together to develop a plan that is smart, equitable and ensures the reliability and affordability that will spur economic growth in the region. While we're disappointed that we're not able to move forward with ACP, we will continue exploring ways to help our customers and communities, particularly in eastern North Carolina where the need is great," said Good.

Already a clean-energy leader, Duke Energy has reduced its carbon emissions by 39% from 2005 and remains on track to cut its carbon emissions by at least 50% by 2030, as peers like Alliant's carbon-neutral plan demonstrate broader industry momentum toward decarbonization. The company also has an ambitious clean energy goal of reaching net-zero emissions from electricity generation by 2050. 

In September 2020, Duke Energy plans to file its Integrated Resource Plans (IRP) for the Carolinas after an extensive process of working with the state's leaders, policymakers, customers and other stakeholders. The IRPs will include multiple scenarios to support a path to a cleaner energy future in the Carolinas, reflecting key utility trends shaping resource planning.

Since 2010, Duke Energy has retired 51 coal units totaling more than 6,500 megawatts (MW) and plans to retire at least an additional 900 MW by the end of 2024. In 2019, the company proposed to shorten the book lives of another approximately 7,700 MW of coal capacity in North Carolina and Indiana.

Duke Energy will host an analyst call in early August 2020 to discuss second quarter 2020 financial results and other business and financial updates. The company will also host its inaugural Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) investor day in October 2020.

 

Duke Energy

Duke Energy is transforming its customers' experience, modernizing the energy grid, generating cleaner energy and expanding natural gas infrastructure to create a smarter energy future for the people and communities it serves. The Electric Utilities and Infrastructure unit's regulated utilities serve 7.8 million retail electric customers in six states: North Carolina, South Carolina, Florida, Indiana, Ohio and Kentucky. The Gas Utilities and Infrastructure unit distributes natural gas to 1.6 million customers in five states: North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, Ohio and Kentucky. The Duke Energy Renewables unit operates wind and solar generation facilities across the U.S., as well as energy storage and microgrid projects.

Duke Energy was named to Fortune's 2020 "World's Most Admired Companies" list and Forbes' "America's Best Employers" list. More information about the company is available at duke-energy.com. The Duke Energy News Center contains news releases, fact sheets, photos, videos and other materials. Duke Energy's illumination features stories about people, innovations, community topics and environmental issues. Follow Duke Energy on Twitter, LinkedIn, Instagram and Facebook.

 

Forward-Looking Information

This document includes forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933 and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. Forward-looking statements are based on management's beliefs and assumptions and can often be identified by terms and phrases that include "anticipate," "believe," "intend," "estimate," "expect," "continue," "should," "could," "may," "plan," "project," "predict," "will," "potential," "forecast," "target," "guidance," "outlook" or other similar terminology. Various factors may cause actual results to be materially different than the suggested outcomes within forward-looking statements; accordingly, there is no assurance that such results will be realized. These factors include, but are not limited to:

  • The impact of the COVID-19 electricity demand shift on operations and revenues;
  • State, federal and foreign legislative and regulatory initiatives, including costs of compliance with existing and future environmental requirements, including those related to climate change, as well as rulings that affect cost and investment recovery or have an impact on rate structures or market prices;
  • The extent and timing of costs and liabilities to comply with federal and state laws, regulations and legal requirements related to coal ash remediation, including amounts for required closure of certain ash impoundments, are uncertain and difficult to estimate;
  • The ability to recover eligible costs, including amounts associated with coal ash impoundment retirement obligations and costs related to significant weather events, and to earn an adequate return on investment through rate case proceedings and the regulatory process;
  • The costs of decommissioning nuclear facilities could prove to be more extensive than amounts estimated and all costs may not be fully recoverable through the regulatory process;
  • Costs and effects of legal and administrative proceedings, settlements, investigations and claims;
  • Industrial, commercial and residential growth or decline in service territories or customer bases resulting from sustained downturns of the economy and the economic health of our service territories or variations in customer usage patterns, including energy efficiency and demand response efforts and use of alternative energy sources, such as self-generation and distributed generation technologies;
  • Federal and state regulations, laws and other efforts designed to promote and expand the use of energy efficiency measures and distributed generation technologies, such as private solar and battery storage, in Duke Energy service territories could result in customers leaving the electric distribution system, excess generation resources as well as stranded costs;
  • Advancements in technology;
  • Additional competition in electric and natural gas markets and continued industry consolidation;
  • The influence of weather and other natural phenomena on operations, including the economic, operational and other effects of severe storms, hurricanes, droughts, earthquakes and tornadoes, including extreme weather associated with climate change;
  • The ability to successfully operate electric generating facilities and deliver electricity to customers including direct or indirect effects to the company resulting from an incident that affects the U.S. electric grid or generating resources;
  • The ability to obtain the necessary permits and approvals and to complete necessary or desirable pipeline expansion or infrastructure projects in our natural gas business;
  • Operational interruptions to our natural gas distribution and transmission activities;
  • The availability of adequate interstate pipeline transportation capacity and natural gas supply;
  • The impact on facilities and business from a terrorist attack, cybersecurity threats, data security breaches, operational accidents, information technology failures or other catastrophic events, such as fires, explosions, pandemic health events or other similar occurrences;
  • The inherent risks associated with the operation of nuclear facilities, including environmental, health, safety, regulatory and financial risks, including the financial stability of third-party service providers;
  • The timing and extent of changes in commodity prices and interest rates and the ability to recover such costs through the regulatory process, where appropriate, and their impact on liquidity positions and the value of underlying assets;
  • The results of financing efforts, including the ability to obtain financing on favorable terms, which can be affected by various factors, including credit ratings, interest rate fluctuations, compliance with debt covenants and conditions and general market and economic conditions;
  • Credit ratings of the Duke Energy Registrants may be different from what is expected;
  • Declines in the market prices of equity and fixed-income securities and resultant cash funding requirements for defined benefit pension plans, other post-retirement benefit plans and nuclear decommissioning trust funds;
  • Construction and development risks associated with the completion of the Duke Energy Registrants' capital investment projects, including risks related to financing, obtaining and complying with terms of permits, meeting construction budgets and schedules and satisfying operating and environmental performance standards, as well as the ability to recover costs from customers in a timely manner, or at all;
  • Changes in rules for regional transmission organizations, including FERC debates on coal and nuclear subsidies and new and evolving capacity markets, and risks related to obligations created by the default of other participants;
  • The ability to control operation and maintenance costs;
  • The level of creditworthiness of counterparties to transactions;
  • The ability to obtain adequate insurance at acceptable costs;
  • Employee workforce factors, including the potential inability to attract and retain key personnel;
  • The ability of subsidiaries to pay dividends or distributions to Duke Energy Corporation holding company (the Parent);
  • The performance of projects undertaken by our nonregulated businesses and the success of efforts to invest in and develop new opportunities;
  • The effect of accounting pronouncements issued periodically by accounting standard-setting bodies;
  • The impact of U.S. tax legislation to our financial condition, results of operations or cash flows and our credit ratings;
  • The impacts from potential impairments of goodwill or equity method investment carrying values; and
  • The ability to implement our business strategy, including enhancing existing technology systems.
  • Additional risks and uncertainties are identified and discussed in the Duke Energy Registrants' reports filed with the SEC and available at the SEC's website at sec.gov. In light of these risks, uncertainties and assumptions, the events described in the forward-looking statements might not occur or might occur to a different extent or at a different time than described. Forward-looking statements speak only as of the date they are made and the Duke Energy Registrants expressly disclaim an obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.

 

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Neo-Nazi, woman accused of plotting 'hate-fueled attacks' on power stations, federal complaint says

Baltimore Substation Attack Plot highlights alleged neo-Nazi plans targeting electrical substations and the power grid, as FBI and DHS warn of domestic extremism threats to critical infrastructure, with arrests in Maryland disrupting potential sniper attacks.

 

Key Points

An alleged extremist plot to disable Baltimore's power grid by shooting substations, thwarted by federal arrests.

✅ Two suspects charged in Maryland conspiracy

✅ Targets included five substations around Baltimore

✅ FBI cites domestic extremism threat to infrastructure

 

A neo-Nazi in Florida and a Maryland woman conspired to attack several electrical substations in the Baltimore area, federal officials say.

Sarah Beth Clendaniel and Brandon Clint Russell were arrested and charged in a conspiracy to disable the power grid by shooting out substations via "sniper attacks," according to a criminal complaint from the U.S. Attorney's Office for the District of Maryland.

Clendaniel allegedly said she wanted to "completely destroy this whole city" and was planning to target five substations situated in a "ring" around Baltimore, the complaint said. Russell is part of a violent extremist group that has cells in multiple states, and he previously planned to attack critical infrastructure in Florida, the complaint said.

"This planned attack threatened lives and would have left thousands of Marylanders in the cold and dark," Maryland U.S. Attorney Erek Barron said in a press release. "We are united and committed to using every legal means necessary to disrupt violence, including hate-fueled attacks."

The news comes as concerns grow about an increase in targeted substation attacks on U.S. substations tied to domestic extremism.

 

What to know about substation attacks

Federal data shows vandalism and suspicious activities at electrical facilities soared nationwide last year, and cyber actors have accessed utilities' control rooms as well.

At the end of the year, attacks or potential attacks were reported on more than a dozen substations and one power plant across five states, and Symantec documented Russia-linked Dragonfly activity targeting the energy sector earlier. Several involved firearms.

In December, targeted attacks on substations in North Carolina left tens of thousands without power amid freezing temperatures, spurring renewed focus on protecting the U.S. power grid among officials. The FBI is investigating.

Vandalism at facilities in Washington left more than 21,000 without electricity on Christmas Day, even as hackers breached power-plant systems in other states. Two men were arrested, and one told police he planned to disrupt power to commit a burglary.

The Department of Homeland Security last year said domestic extremists had been developing "credible, specific plans" since at least 2020 and would continue to "encourage physical attacks against electrical infrastructure," and the U.S. government has condemned Russia for power grid hacking as well.

Last February, three neo-Nazis pleaded guilty to federal crimes related to a scheme to attack the grid with rifles, with each targeting a substation in a different region of the U.S., even as reports that Russians hacked into US electric utilities drew widespread attention.

 

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B.C. Hydro misled regulator: report

BC Hydro SAP Oversight Report assesses B.C. Utilities Commission findings on misleading testimony, governance failures, public funds oversight, IT project risk, compliance gaps, audit controls, ratepayer impacts, and regulatory accountability in major enterprise software decisions.

 

Key Points

A summary of BCUC findings on BC Hydro's SAP IT project oversight, governance lapses, and regulatory compliance.

✅ BCUC probed testimony, cost overruns, and governance failures

✅ Project split to avoid scrutiny; incomplete records and late corrections

✅ Reforms pledged: stronger business cases, compliance, audit controls

 

B.C. Hydro misled the province’s independent regulator about an expensive technology program, thereby avoiding scrutiny on how it spent millions of dollars in public money, according to a report by the B.C. Utilities Commission.

The Crown power corporation gave inaccurate testimony to regulators about the software it had chosen, called SAP, for an information technology project that has cost $197 million, said the report.

“The way the SAP decision was made prevented its appropriate scrutiny by B.C. Hydro’s board of directors and the BCUC, reflecting governance risks seen in Manitoba Hydro board changes in other jurisdictions,” the commission found.

“B.C. Hydro’s CEO and CFO and its (audit and risk management board committee) members did not exhibit good business judgment when reviewing and approving the SAP decision without an expenditure approval or business case, highlighting how board upheaval at Hydro One can carry market consequences.”

The report was the result of a complaint made in 2016 by then-opposition NDP MLA Adrian Dix, who alleged B.C. Hydro lied to the regulatory commission to try to get approval for a risky IT project in 2008 that then went over budget and resulted in the firing of Hydro’s chief information officer.

The commission spent two years investigating. Its report outlined how B.C. Hydro split the IT project into smaller components to avoid scrutiny, failed to produce the proper planning document when asked, didn’t disclose cost increases of up to $38 million, reflecting pressures seen at Manitoba Hydro's debt across the sector, gave incomplete testimony and did not quickly correct the record when it realized the mistakes.

“Essentially all of the things I asserted were substantiated, and so I’m pleased,” Dix, who is now minister of health, said on Monday. “I think ratepayers can be pleased with it, because even though it was an elaborate process, it involves hundreds of millions of spending by a public utility and it clearly required oversight.”

The BCUC stopped short of agreeing with Dix’s allegation that the errors were deliberate. Instead it pointed toward a culture at B.C. Hydro of confusion, misunderstanding and fear of dealing with the independent regulatory process.

“Therefore, the panel finds that there was a culture of reticence to inform the BCUC when there was doubt about something, even among individuals that understood or should have understood the role of the BCUC, a pattern that can fuel Hydro One investor concerns in comparable markets,” read the report.

“Because of this doubt and uncertainty among B.C. Hydro staff, the panel finds no evidence to support a finding that the BCUC was intentionally misled. The panel finds B.C. Hydro’s culture of reticence to be inappropriate.”

By law, B.C. Hydro is supposed to get approval by the commission for rate changes and major expenditures. Its officials are often put under oath when providing information.

B.C. Hydro apologized for its conduct in 2016. The Crown corporation said Monday it supports the commission’s findings and has made improvements to management of IT projects, including more rigorous business case analyses.

“We participated fully in the commission’s process and acknowledged throughout the inquiry that we could have performed better during the regulatory hearings in 2008,” said spokesperson Tanya Fish.

“Since then, we have taken steps to ensure we meet the highest standards of openness and transparency during regulatory proceedings, including implementing a (thorough) awareness program to support staff in providing transparent and accurate testimony at all times during a regulatory process.”

The Ministry of Energy, which is responsible for B.C. Hydro, said in a statement it accepts all of the BCUC recommendations and will include the findings as part of a review it is conducting into Hydro’s operations and finances, including its deferred operating costs for context, and regulatory oversight.

Dix, who is now grappling with complex IT project management in his Health Ministry, said the lessons learned by B.C. Hydro and outlined in the report are important.

“I think the report is useful reading on all those scores,” he said. “It’s a case study in what shouldn’t happen in a major IT project.”

 

 

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Chinese govt rejects the allegations against CPEC Power Producers

CPEC Power Producers drive China-Pakistan energy cooperation under the Belt and Road Initiative, delivering clean, reliable electricity, investment transparency, and grid stability while countering allegations, cutting circular debt, and easing load-shedding nationwide.

 

Key Points

CPEC Power Producers are BRI-backed energy projects supplying clean, reliable power and stabilizing Pakistan's grid.

✅ Supply one-third of load during COVID-19 peak, ensuring reliability

✅ Reduce circular debt and mitigate nationwide load-shedding

✅ Operate under BRI with transparent, long-term investment

 

Chinese government has rejected the allegations against the CPEC Power Producers (CPPs) amid broader coal reduction goals in the power sector.

Chinese government has made it clear that a mammoth cooperation with Pakistan in the energy sector is continuing, aligned with its broader electricity outlook through 2060 and beyond.

A letter written by Chinese ambassador to minister of Energy Omar Ayub Khan has said that major headway has been seen in recent days in the perspective of CPEC projects, alongside China's nuclear energy development at home. But he wants to invite the attention of government of Pakistan to the recent allegations leveled against the CPEC Power Producers (CPPs).

The Chinese ambassador further said Energy is a major area of cooperation under the CPEC and the CPPs have provided large amount of clean, reliable and affordable electricity to the Pakistani consumers and have guaranteed one-third of the power load during the COVID-19 pandemic, even as China grappled with periodic power cuts domestically. However many misinformed analysis and media distortion about the CPPs have been made public to create confusion about the CPEC, amid global solar sector uncertainty influencing narratives. Therefore, the Port Qasim Electric Power Company, Huaneng Shandong Ruyi Energy Limited and the China Power Hub Generation Company Limited as leading CPPs have drafted their own reports in this regard to present the real facts about the investors and operators. The conclusion is the CPPs have contributed to overcoming of loadshedding and the reduction of the power circular debt.

Reports of the two companies have also been attached with the letter wherein it has been laid out that CPEC as a pilot project under the Belt and Road Initiative, which also includes regional nuclear energy cooperation efforts, is an important platform for China and Pakistan to build a stronger economic and development partnership.

Chinese companies have expressed strong reservations over report of different committees besides voicing protest over it. They have made it clear they are ready to present the real situation before the competent authorities and committee, and in parallel with electricity infrastructure initiatives abroad, because all the work is being carried out by Chinese companies in power sector in fair and transparent manner.

 

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BloombergNEF: World offshore wind costs 'drop 32% per cent'

Global Renewable LCOE Trends reveal offshore wind costs down 32%, with 10MW turbines, lower CAPEX and OPEX, and parity for solar PV and onshore wind in Europe, China, and California, per BloombergNEF analysis.

 

Key Points

Benchmarks showing falling LCOE for offshore wind, onshore wind, and solar PV, driven by larger turbines and lower CAPEX

✅ Offshore wind LCOE $78/MWh; $53-64/MWh in DK/NL excl. transmission

✅ Onshore wind $47/MWh; solar PV $51/MWh, best $26-36/MWh

✅ Cost drivers: 10MW turbines, lower CAPEX/OPEX, weak China demand

 

World offshore wind costs have fallen 32% from just a year ago and 12% compared with the first half of 2019, according to a BNEF long-term outlook from BloombergNEF.

In its latest Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE) Update, BloombergNEF said its current global benchmark LCOE estimate for offshore wind is $78 a megawatt-hour.

“New offshore wind projects throughout Europe, including the UK's build-out, now deploy turbines with power ratings up to 10MW, unlocking CAPEX and OPEX savings,” BloombergNEF said.

In Denmark and the Netherlands, it expects the most recent projects financed to achieve $53-64/MWh excluding transmission.

New solar and onshore wind projects have reached parity with average wholesale power prices in California and parts of Europe, while in China levelised costs are below the benchmark average regulated coal price, according to BloombergNEF.

The company's global benchmark levelized cost figures for onshore wind and PV projects financed in the last six months are at $47 and $51 a megawatt-hours, underscoring that renewables are now the cheapest new electricity option in many regions, down 6% and 11% respectively compared with the first half of 2019.

BloombergNEF said for wind this is mainly down to a fall in the price of turbines – 7% lower on average globally compared with the end of 2018.

In China, the world’s largest solar market, the CAPEX of utility-scale PV plants has dropped 11% in the last six months, reaching $0.57m per MW.

“Weak demand for new plants in China has left developers and engineering, procurement and construction firms eager for business, and this has put pressure on CAPEX,” BloombergNEF said.

It added that estimates of the cheapest PV projects financed recently – in India, Chile and Australia – will be able to achieve an LCOE of $27-36/MWh, assuming competitive returns for their equity investors.

Best-in-class onshore wind farms in Brazil, India, Mexico and Texas can reach levelized costs as low as $26-31/MWh already, the research said.

Programs such as the World Bank wind program are helping developing countries accelerate wind deployment as costs continue to drop.

BloombergNEF associate in the energy economics team Tifenn Brandily said: “This is a three- stage process. In phase one, new solar and wind get cheaper than new gas and coal plants on a cost-of- energy basis.

“In phase two, renewables reach parity with power prices. In phase three, they become even cheaper than running existing thermal plants.

“Our analysis shows that phase one has now been reached for two-thirds of the global population.

“Phase two started with California, China and parts of Europe. We expect phase three to be reached on a global scale by 2030.

“As this all plays out, thermal power plants will increasingly be relegated to a balancing role, looking for opportunities to generate when the sun doesn’t shine or the wind doesn’t blow.”

 

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