Nunavut power rates rising 19 percent

UK Energy Price Cap Cut 2024 signals relief as wholesale gas prices fall; Ofgem price cap drops per Cornwall Insight, aided by LNG supply, mild winter, despite Red Sea tensions and Ukraine conflict impacts.

Key Points

A forecast cut to Great Britain's Ofgem price cap as wholesale gas falls, easing typical annual household bills in 2024.

✅ Cap falls from £1,928 to £1,620 in April 2024

✅ Forecast £1,497 in July, then about £1,541 from October

✅ Drivers: lower wholesale gas, LNG supply, mild winter

Households in Great Britain are set to experience a significant reduction in energy costs this spring, with bills projected to drop by over £300 annually. This decrease is primarily due to a decline in wholesale gas prices, offering some respite to those grappling with the cost of living crisis.

Cornwall Insight, a well-regarded industry analyst, predicts a 16% reduction in average bills from the previous quarter, potentially reaching the lowest levels since the onset of the Ukraine conflict.

The industry’s price cap, indicative of the average annual bill for a typical household, is expected to decrease from the current £1,928, set earlier this month, to £1,620 in April – a reduction of £308 and £40 less than previously forecasted in December, as ministers consider ending the gas-electricity price link to improve market resilience.

Concerns about escalating tensions in the Red Sea, where Houthi rebels have disrupted global shipping, initially led analysts to fear an increase in wholesale oil prices and subsequent impact on household energy costs.

Contrary to these concerns, oil prices have remained relatively stable, and European gas reserves have been higher than anticipated during a mild winter, with European gas prices returning to pre-Ukraine war levels since November.

Cornwall Insight anticipates that energy prices will continue to be comparatively low through 2024. They predict a further decline to £1,497 for a typical annual bill from July, followed by a slight increase to £1,541 starting in October.

This forecast is a welcome development for Britons who have been dealing with increased expenses across various sectors, from food to utilities, amidst persistently high inflation rates, with energy-driven EU inflation hitting lower-income households hardest across member states.

Energy bills saw a steep rise in 2021, which escalated further due to the Ukraine conflict in 2022, driving up wholesale gas prices. This surge prompted government intervention to subsidize bills, with the UK price cap estimated to cost around £89bn to the public purse, capping costs to a typical household at £2,500.

Cornwall Insight noted that the supply of liquified natural gas to Europe had not been as adversely affected by the Red Sea disruptions as initially feared. Moreover, the UK has been well-supplied with gas from the US, which has become a more significant supplier since the Ukraine war, even as US electricity prices have risen to multi-decade highs. Contributing factors also include lower gas prices in Asia, mild weather, and robust gas availability.

Craig Lowrey, a principal consultant at Cornwall Insight, remarked that concerns about Red Sea events driving up energy prices have not materialized, allowing households to expect a reduction in prices.

On Monday, the next-month wholesale gas price dropped by 4% to 65p a therm.

However, Lowrey cautioned that a complete return to pre-crisis energy bill levels remains unlikely due to ongoing market impacts from shifting away from Russian energy sources and persistent geopolitical tensions, as well as policy changes such as Britain’s Energy Security Bill shaping market reforms.

Richard Neudegg, director of regulation at Uswitch, welcomed the potential further reduction of the price cap in April. However, he pointed out that this offers little solace to households currently struggling with high winter energy costs during the winter. Neudegg urged Ofgem, the energy regulator, to prompt suppliers to reintroduce more competitive and affordable fixed-price deals.

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Sustainable Marine tidal energy delivers in-stream power to Nova Scotia's grid from Grand Passage, proving low-impact, renewable generation and advancing a floating tidal array at FORCE and Minas Passage in the Bay of Fundy.

Key Points

The first in-stream tidal project supplying clean power to Nova Scotia's grid, proven at Grand Passage.

✅ First to deliver in-stream tidal power to Canada's grid

✅ Demonstration at Grand Passage informs FORCE deployments

✅ Low-impact design and environmental monitoring validated

Sustainable Marine has officially powered up its tidal energy operation in Canada and is delivering clean electricity to the power system in Nova Scotia, on the country’s Atlantic coast, as the province moves to increase wind and solar projects in the years ahead. The company’s system in Grand Passage is the first to deliver in-stream tidal power to the grid in Canada, following provincial approval to harness Bay of Fundy tides that is spurring further development.

The system start-up is the culmination of more than a decade of research, development and testing, including lessons from Scottish tidal projects in recent years and a powerful tidal turbine feeding onshore grids, managing the technical challenges associated with operating in highly energetic environments and proving the ultra-low environmental impact of the tidal technology.

Sustainable Marine is striving to deliver the world’s first floating tidal array at FORCE (Fundy Ocean Research Centre for Energy). This project will be delivered in phases, drawing upon the knowledge gained and lessons learned in Grand Passage, and insights from offshore wind pilots like France’s first offshore wind turbine in Europe. In the coming months the company will continue to operate the platform at its demonstration site at Grand Passage, gradually building up power production, while New York and New England clean energy demand continues to rise, to further prove the technology and environmental monitoring systems, before commencing deployments in the Minas Passage – renowned as the Everest of tidal energy.

The Bay of Fundy’s huge tidal energy resource contains more than four times the combined flow of every freshwater river in the world, with the potential to generate approximately 2,500 MW of green energy, underscoring why independent electricity planning will be important for integrating marine renewables.

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Canada Clean Electricity Regulations allow flexible, technology-neutral pathways to a 2035 net-zero grid, permitting limited natural gas with carbon capture, strict emissions standards, and exemptions for emergencies and peak demand across provinces and territories.

Key Points

Federal draft rules for a 2035 net-zero grid, allowing limited gas with CCS under strict performance and compliance standards.

✅ Performance cap: 30 tCO2 per GWh annually for gas plants

✅ CCS must sequester 95% of emissions to comply

✅ Emergency and peak demand exemptions permitted

After facing pushback from Alberta and Saskatchewan, and amid looming power challenges nationwide, Canada's draft net-zero electricity regulations — released today — will permit some natural gas power generation. 

Environment Minister Steven Guilbeault released Ottawa's proposed Clean Electricity Regulations on Thursday.

Provinces and territories will have a minimum 75-day window to comment on the draft regulations. The final rules are intended to pave the way to a net-zero power grid in Canada, aligning with 2035 clean electricity goals established nationally. 

Calling the regulations "technology neutral," Guilbeault said the federal government believes there's enough flexibility to accommodate the different energy needs of Canada's diverse provinces and territories, including how Ontario is embracing clean power in its planning. 

"What we're talking about is not a fossil fuel-free grid by 2035; it's a net zero grid by 2035," Guilbeault said. 

"We understand there will be some fossil fuels remaining … but we're working to minimize those, and the fossil fuels that will be used in 2035 will have to comply with rigorous environmental and emission standards," he added. 

Some analysts argue that scrapping coal-fired electricity can be costly and ineffective, underscoring the trade-offs in transition planning.

While non-emitting sources of electricity — hydroelectricity, wind and solar and nuclear — should not have any issues complying with the regulations, natural gas plants will have to meet specific criteria.

Those operations, the government said, will need to emit the equivalent of 30 tonnes of carbon dioxide per gigawatt hour or less annually to help balance demand and emissions across the grid.

Federal officials said existing natural gas power plants could comply with that performance standard with the help of carbon capture and storage systems, which would be required to sequester 95 per cent of their emissions.

"In other words, it's achievable, and it is achievable by existing technology," said a government official speaking to reporters Thursday on background and not for attribution.

The regulations will also allow a certain level of natural gas power production without the need to capture emissions. Capturing emissions will be exempted during emergencies and peak periods when renewables cannot keep up with demand. 

Some newer plants might not have to comply with the rules until the 2040s, because the regulations apply to plants 20 years after they are commissioned, which dovetails with net-zero by 2050 commitments from electricity associations. 

The two-decade grace period does not apply to plants that open after the regulations are expected to be finalized in 2025.

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Muskrat Falls Financing Restructuring redirects megadam benefits to ratepayers, stabilizes electricity rates, and overhauls federal provincial loan guarantees for the hydro project, addressing cost overruns flagged by the Public Utilities Board in Newfoundland and Labrador.

Key Points

A revised funding model shifting benefits to ratepayers to curb rate hikes linked to Muskrat Falls cost overruns.

✅ Shields ratepayers from megadam cost overruns

✅ Revises federal provincial loan guarantees

✅ Targets stable electricity rates by 2021 and beyond

Ottawa and Newfoundland and Labrador say they will rewrite the financial structure of the Muskrat Falls hydro project to shield ratepayers from paying for the megadam's cost overruns.

Federal Natural Resources Minister Seamus O'Regan and Premier Dwight Ball announced Monday that their two governments would scrap the financial structure agreed upon in past federal-provincial loan agreements, moving to a model that redirects benefits, such as a lump sum credit, to ratepayers.

Both politicians called the announcement, which was light on dollar figures, a major milestone in easing residents' fears that electricity rates will spike sharply, as seen with Nova Scotia's debated 14% hike, when the over-budget dam comes fully online next year.
"We are in a far better place today thanks to this comprehensive plan," Ball said.

Ball has said the issue of electricity rates is a top priority for his government, and he has pledged to keep rates near existing levels, but rate mitigation talks with Ottawa have dragged on since April.

A report by the province's Public Utilities Board released Friday forecast an "unprecedented" 75 per cent increase in average domestic rates for island residents in 2021, while Nova Scotia's regulator approved a 14% hike, and reported concerns from industrial customers about their ability to remain competitive.

Costs of the Muskrat Falls megadam on Labrador's Lower Churchill River have ballooned to more than $12.7 billion since the project was approved in 2012, according to the latest estimate of Crown corporation Nalcor Energy.

The dam is set to produce more power than the province can sell. Its existing financial structure would have left electricity ratepayers paying for Muskrat Falls to make up the difference starting in 2021, an issue both governments said Monday has been resolved with the relaunch of financing talks.

"Essentially, you won't pay this on your monthly light bills," Ball said.

But details of how the project will meet financing requirements in coming decades to make up the gap in funds are still to be worked out.

Both Ball and O'Regan criticized previous governments for sanctioning the poorly planned development and again pledged their commitment to easing the burden on residents.

"We promised we would be there to help, and we will be," O'Regan said before announcing a "relaunch" of negotiations around the project's financial structure.

He did not say how much the new setup might cost the federal government, despite earlier federal funding commitments, stressing that the new focus will be on the project's long-term sustainability. "There's no single piece of policy ... that can resolve such a large and complicated mess," O'Regan said.

The two governments also said they will work towards electrifying federal buildings to reduce an anticipated power surplus in the province.

In the short term, the federal government said it would allow for "flexibility" in upcoming cash requirements related to debt servicing, allowing deferral of payments if necessary.

Ball said that flexibility was built in to ensure the plan would still be applicable if costs continue to rise before Muskrat Falls is commissioned.

Political opponents criticized Monday's plan as lacking detail.

"What I heard talked about was an agreement that in the future, there's going to be an agreement," said Progressive Conservative Leader Ches Crosbie. "This was an occasion to reassure people that there's a plan in place to make life here affordable, and I didn't see that happen today."

Others addressed the lingering questions about the project's final cost.

Nalcor's latest financial update has remained unchanged since 2017, though the Muskrat Falls project has seen additional delays related to staffing and software issues.

Dennis Browne, the province's consumer advocate, said the switch to a cost of service model is a significant move that will benefit ratepayers, but he said it's impossible to truly restructure the project while it's a work in progress. "We need to know what the figures are, and we don't have them," he said.

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IESO Capacity Auctions will competitively procure resources for Ontario electricity needs, boosting reliability and resource adequacy through market-based bidding, enabling demand response, energy storage, and flexible supply to meet changing load and regional grid conditions.

Key Points

A competitive, technology-neutral auction buys capacity at lowest cost to keep Ontario's grid reliable and flexible.

✅ Market-based procurement reduces system costs.

✅ Enables demand response, storage, and hybrid resources.

✅ Increases flexibility and regional reliability in Ontario.

The Independent Electricity System Operator (IESO) is introducing changes to Ontario's electricity system that will help save Ontarians about $3.4 billion over a 10-year period. The changes include holding annual capacity auctions to acquire electricity resources at lowest cost that can be called upon when and where they are needed to meet Ontario electricity needs. 

Today's announcement marks the release of a high level design for future auctions, with changes for electricity consumers expected as the first is set to be held in late 2022.

"These auctions will specify how much electricity we need, and introduce a competitive process to determine who can meet that need. It's a competition among all eligible resources, and it's the Ontario consumer, including industrial electricity ratepayers, who benefits through lower costs and a more flexible system better able to respond to changing demand and supply conditions," says IESO President and CEO Peter Gregg.

In the past decade, electricity supply was typically acquired through very prescriptive means with defined targets for specific types of resources such as wind and solar, and secured through 20-year contracts.  While these long-term commitments helped Ontario transform its generation fleet over the last decade, electricity cost allocation also played a role, but longer term contracts provide limited flexibility in dealing with unexpected changes in the power system. 

"Imagine signing a 20-year contract for your cable TV service. In five years' time, electricity rates could be lower, new competitors may have entered the market, or entirely new and innovative platforms and services like Netflix may have emerged. You miss out on opportunities for improvement by being locked-in," says Gregg.

Provincial electricity demand has traditionally fluctuated over time due to factors like economic growth, conservation and the introduction of generating resources on local distribution systems, with occasional issues such as phantom demand affecting customers' costs as well. Technological changes are adding another layer of uncertainty to future demand as electric vehicles, energy storage and low-cost solar panels become more common.

"Our planners do their best to forecast electricity demand, but the truth is there's no such thing as certainty in electricity planning. That's why flexibility is so important. We don't want Ontarians to have to pay more on the typical Ontario electricity bill for electricity resources than are needed to ensure a reliable power system that can continue to meet Ontario's needs," says IESO Vice President and COO Leonard Kula.

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Mexico Energy Reform Defeat underscores opposition unity as CFE-first rules, state regulators, and lithium nationalization falter amid USMCA concerns, investment risks, and clean energy transition impacts in Congress over power generation policy.

Key Points

The failed push to expand CFE control, flagged for USMCA risks, higher costs, regulator shifts, and slower clean energy transition.

✅ Bill to mandate 54% CFE generation and priority dispatch failed.

✅ Opposition cited USMCA breaches, higher prices, slower clean energy.

✅ Lithium nationalization to return via separate legislation.

Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador's plan to increase state control of power generation was defeated in parliament on Sunday, as opposition parties united in the face of a bill they said would hurt investment and breach international obligations, concerns mirrored by rulings such as the Florida court on electricity monopolies that scrutinize market concentration.

His National Regeneration Movement (MORENA) and its allies fell nearly 60 votes short of the two-thirds majority needed in the 500-seat lower house of Congress, mustering just 275 votes after a raucous session that lasted more than 12 hours.

Seeking to roll back previous constitutional reforms that liberalized the electricity market, Lopez Obrador's proposed changes would have done away with a requirement that state-owned Comision Federal de Electricidad (CFE) sell the cheapest electricity first, a move reminiscent of debates when energy groups warned on pricing changes under federal proposals, allowing it to sell its own electricity ahead of other power companies.

Under the bill, the CFE would also have been set to generate a minimum of 54% of the country's total electricity, and energy regulation would have been shifted from independent bodies to state regulators, paralleling concerns raised when a Calgary retailer opposed a market overhaul over regulatory impacts.

The contentious proposals faced much criticism from business groups and the United States, Mexico's top trade partner as well as other allies who argued it would violate the regional trade deal, the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), even as the USA looks to Canada for green power to deepen cross-border energy ties.

Lopez Obrador had argued the bill would have protected consumers and made the country more energy independent, echoing how Texas weighs market reforms to avoid blackouts to bolster reliability, saying the legislation was vital to his plans to "transform" Mexico.

Although the odds were against his party, he came into the vote seeking to leverage his victory in last weekend's referendum on his leadership.

Speaking ahead of the vote, Jorge Alvarez Maynez, a lawmaker from the opposition Citizens' Movement party, said the proposals, if enacted, would damage Mexico, pointing to experiences like the Texas electricity market bailout after a severe winter storm as cautionary examples.

"There isn't a specialist, academic, environmentalist or activist with a smidgen of doubt - this bill would increase electricity prices, slow the transition to (clean) energy in our country and violate international agreements," he added.

Supporters of clean-energy goals noted that subnational shifts, such as the New Mexico 100% clean electricity bill can illustrate alternative pathways to reform.

The bill also contained a provision to nationalize lithium resources.

Lopez Obrador said this week that if the bill was defeated, he would send another bill to Congress on Monday aiming to have at least the lithium portion of the proposed legislation passed.

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