Utilities responsiveness more effective than federal government during Sandy

By J.D. Power and Associates


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State governments and electric utilities provided more effective emergency responsiveness during Hurricane Sandy than did local and federal governments, according to recent study.

Overall, state governments and electric utilities provided more effective responsiveness and handling of the 2012 Hurricane Sandy emergency than did local and federal governments, according to the J.D. Power and Associates 2013 Hurricane Sandy Responsiveness StudySM released recently.

Key Findings

Nearly one-half 44 of all customers used a mobile device cellphone, smartphone or tablet to gather information regarding their power outage.

Two-thirds 66 of all customers say that power lines should be buried but only 37 percent say they would accept a rate increase of $12 per month to bury the power lines.

The average outage among the customers surveyed was two days.

The study is based on interviews of more than 5,900 U.S. residential customers in 31 utility territories impacted by Hurricane Sandy. The online survey was conducted from January 4 to January 11, 2013. Overall responsiveness is measured by examining three areas across electric utilities and local, state, and federal governments: preparedness for the hurricane efforts to support hurricane recovery and effectiveness of communications.

The emergency responsiveness of state governments and electric utilities 611 and 610, respectively, on a 1,000-point scale surpass local governments 598 and the federal government 539 in overall responsiveness to the emergency.

Hurricane Sandy's damage is estimated at $50 billion and is considered the second-costliest hurricane in U.S. history.1 During the October 2012 hurricane event, approximately 8.5 million customers lost power,2 and 65,000 utility workers responded from 80 utilities from nearly every state and Canada, dispatching crews and equipment to impacted areas.3 During the hurricane, 43 percent of all customers surveyed experienced a power outage lasting 24 hours or longer. The average outage duration among all customers surveyed was 48 hours.

"Overall, the federal government does not receive high ratings from customers impacted by Hurricane Sandy. For utilities and local and state governments, the results are more mixed, with some receiving high ratings for their effectiveness of handling of the emergency and a few receiving low ratings," said John Hazen, senior director of the energy utility practice at J.D. Power and Associates.

The Connecticut, Delaware and New Jersey state governments perform highest in the study in overall responsiveness to the hurricane emergency. Among the 15 states included in the study, Ohio, Pennsylvania and West Virginia perform lowest in responsiveness to the emergency. Customers in New Jersey, New York and West Virginia rate the federal government lowest in responsiveness to the emergency, while Maine and Maryland rate the federal government highest in responsiveness.

Among customers with extensive outages average length of 24 hours or longer, three electric utilities perform particularly well in the study: Atlantic City Electric, Central Hudson Gas & Electric and PPL Electric Utilities. Local governments that perform well overall include cities within the counties of Bronx New York, Burlington New Jersey and New Haven Connecticut.

Obtaining timely outage information is critical to utility customers. Customers received most of their information regarding the outage by calling their utility directly 37 listening to radio or watching TV 29 and going directly to their utility's website 17. Nearly three-fourths 71 of customers who made contact with their utility during the outage used their mobile cellphone or smartphone. Satisfaction is highest among customers who say they received proactive outbound communications, in which their utility sent emails, text messages or outbound phone calls.

The study finds that customers' perceptions of work crews deployed during the storm recovery varied. One-half 50 of all customers observed their utility's crews working at their home or elsewhere in their area. Also, 18 percent of all customers observed work crews from other utilities assisting in restoration efforts. Satisfaction with efforts to support recovery increases when customers observe their local utility's crew working. However, satisfaction declines when customers observe only crews from utilities other than their own out working. Fifty-four percent of customers agree other utilities' work crews were more knowledgeable and courteous 52 than local utilities' work crews on knowledge 50 and courtesy 44.

"The study indicates the No. 1 lesson learned from experience during and after Hurricane Sandy among customers hardest hit power outage lasting longer than 24 hours is to purchase survival gear, including flashlights and non-perishable food, ahead of a major storm," said Hazen.

Thirty-seven percent of customers indicate that they were very prepared for Hurricane Sandy however, only 20 percent perceived that their local community was very prepared. Only 14 percent of customers used a portable generator, and three percent used a built-in back-up home generator during the hurricane. Among customers who did not use a generator, 49 percent say that they would now consider purchasing a generator.

As a preventive measure against storm-related power outages, 66 percent of all customers agree that "power lines should be buried underground in your area" with 20 not having an opinion. However, only 37 percent of customers say they are "willing to accept a rate increase in order for power lines to be buried." Among customers willing to accept a rate increase, $12 per month is the average bill increase they are willing to accept in order for power lines to be buried.

[1] Source: The National Hurricane Center, http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL182012_Sandy.pdf accessed 2/12/2013

[2] Source: U.S. Department of Energy. Office of Electricity and Reliability Situation Reports

[3] Source: Edison Electric Institute, http://www.eei.org/newsroom/pressreleases/Releases/Pages/121101.aspx accessed 2/19/13

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BC Hydro says three LNG companies continue to demand electricity, justifying Site C

BC Hydro LNG Load Forecast signals rising electricity demand from LNG Canada, Woodfibre, and Tilbury, aligning Site C dam capacity with BCUC review, hydroelectric supply, and a potential fourth project in feasibility study British Columbia.

 

Key Points

BC Hydro's projection of LNG-driven power demand, guiding Site C capacity, BCUC review, and grid planning.

✅ Includes LNG Canada, Woodfibre, and Tilbury load requests

✅ Aligns Site C hydroelectric output with industrial electrification

✅ Notes feasibility study for a fourth LNG project

 

Despite recent project cancellations, such as the Siwash Creek independent power project now in limbo, BC Hydro still expects three LNG projects — and possibly a fourth, which is undergoing a feasibility study — will need power from its controversial and expensive Site C hydroelectric dam.

In a letter sent to the British Columbia Utilities Commission (BCUC) on Oct. 3, BC Hydro’s chief regulatory officer Fred James said the provincially owned utility’s load forecast includes power demand for three proposed liquefied natural gas projects because they continue to ask the company for power.

The letter and attached report provide some detail on which of the LNG projects proposed in B.C. are more likely to be built, given recent project cancellations.

The documents are also an attempt to explain why BC Hydro continues to forecast a surge in electricity demand in the province, as seen in its first call for power in 15 years driven by electrification, even though massive LNG projects proposed by Malaysia’s state owned oil company Petronas and China’s CNOOC Nexen have been cancelled.

An explanation is needed because B.C.’s new NDP government had promised the BCUC would review the need for the $9-billion Site C dam, which was commissioned to provide power for the province’s nascent LNG industry, amid debates over alternatives like going nuclear among residents. The commission had specifically asked for an explanation of BC Hydro’s electric load forecast as it relates to LNG projects by Wednesday.

The three projects that continue to ask BC Hydro for electricity are Shell Canada Ltd.’s LNG Canada project, the Woodfibre LNG project and a future expansion of FortisBC’s Tilbury LNG storage facility.

None of those projects have officially been sanctioned but “service requests from industrial sector customers, including LNG, are generally included in our industrial load forecast,” the report noted, even as Manitoba Hydro warned about energy-intensive customers in a separate notice.

In a redacted section of the report, BC Hydro also raises the possibility of a fourth LNG project, which is exploring the need for power in B.C.

“BC Hydro is currently undertaking feasibility studies for another large LNG project, which is not currently included in its Current Load Forecast,” one section of the report notes, though the remainder of the section is redacted.

The Site C dam, which has become a source of controversy in B.C. and was an important election issue, is currently under construction and, following two new generating stations recently commissioned, is expected to be in service by 2024, a timeline which had been considered to provide LNG projects with power by the time they are operational.

BC Hydro’s letter to the BCUC refers to media and financial industry reports that indicate global LNG markets will require more supply by 2023.

“While there remains significant uncertainty, global LNG demand will continue to grow and there is opportunity for B.C. LNG,” the report notes.

 

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A new material made from carbon nanotubes can generate electricity by scavenging energy from its environment

Carbon Nanotube Solvent Electricity enables wire-free electrochemistry as organic solvents like acetonitrile pull electrons, powering alcohol oxidation and packed bed reactors, energy harvesting, and micro- and nanoscale robots via redox-driven current.

 

Key Points

Solvent-driven electron extraction from carbon nanotube particles generates current for electrochemistry.

✅ 0.7 V per particle via solvent-induced electron flow

✅ Packed bed reactors drive alcohol oxidation without wires

✅ Scalable for micro- and nanoscale robots; energy harvesting

 

MIT engineers have discovered a new way of generating electricity, alongside advances in renewable power at night that broaden what's possible, using tiny carbon particles that can create a current simply by interacting with liquid surrounding them.

The liquid, an organic solvent, draws electrons out of the particles, generating a current, unlike devices based on a cheap thermoelectric material that rely on heat, that could be used to drive chemical reactions or to power micro- or nanoscale robots, the researchers say.

"This mechanism is new, and this way of generating energy is completely new," says Michael Strano, the Carbon P. Dubbs Professor of Chemical Engineering at MIT. "This technology is intriguing because all you have to do is flow a solvent through a bed of these particles. This allows you to do electrochemistry, but with no wires."

In a new study describing this phenomenon, the researchers showed that they could use this electric current to drive a reaction known as alcohol oxidation—an organic chemical reaction that is important in the chemical industry.

Strano is the senior author of the paper, which appears today in Nature Communications. The lead authors of the study are MIT graduate student Albert Tianxiang Liu and former MIT researcher Yuichiro Kunai. Other authors include former graduate student Anton Cottrill, postdocs Amir Kaplan and Hyunah Kim, graduate student Ge Zhang, and recent MIT graduates Rafid Mollah and Yannick Eatmon.

Unique properties
The new discovery grew out of Strano's research on carbon nanotubes—hollow tubes made of a lattice of carbon atoms, which have unique electrical properties. In 2010, Strano demonstrated, for the first time, that carbon nanotubes can generate "thermopower waves." When a carbon nanotube is coated with layer of fuel, moving pulses of heat, or thermopower waves, travel along the tube, creating an electrical current that exemplifies turning thermal energy into electricity in nanoscale systems.

That work led Strano and his students to uncover a related feature of carbon nanotubes. They found that when part of a nanotube is coated with a Teflon-like polymer, it creates an asymmetry, distinct from conventional thermoelectric materials approaches, that makes it possible for electrons to flow from the coated to the uncoated part of the tube, generating an electrical current. Those electrons can be drawn out by submerging the particles in a solvent that is hungry for electrons.

To harness this special capability, the researchers created electricity-generating particles by grinding up carbon nanotubes and forming them into a sheet of paper-like material. One side of each sheet was coated with a Teflon-like polymer, and the researchers then cut out small particles, which can be any shape or size. For this study, they made particles that were 250 microns by 250 microns.

When these particles are submerged in an organic solvent such as acetonitrile, the solvent adheres to the uncoated surface of the particles and begins pulling electrons out of them.

"The solvent takes electrons away, and the system tries to equilibrate by moving electrons," Strano says. "There's no sophisticated battery chemistry inside. It's just a particle and you put it into solvent and it starts generating an electric field."

Particle power
The current version of the particles can generate about 0.7 volts of electricity per particle. In this study, the researchers also showed that they can form arrays of hundreds of particles in a small test tube. This "packed bed" reactor, unlike thin-film waste-heat harvesters for electronics, generates enough energy to power a chemical reaction called an alcohol oxidation, in which an alcohol is converted to an aldehyde or a ketone. Usually, this reaction is not performed using electrochemistry because it would require too much external current.

"Because the packed bed reactor is compact, it has more flexibility in terms of applications than a large electrochemical reactor," Zhang says. "The particles can be made very small, and they don't require any external wires in order to drive the electrochemical reaction."

In future work, Strano hopes to use this kind of energy generation to build polymers using only carbon dioxide as a starting material. In a related project, he has already created polymers that can regenerate themselves using carbon dioxide as a building material, in a process powered by solar energy and informed by devices that generate electricity at night as a complement. This work is inspired by carbon fixation, the set of chemical reactions that plants use to build sugars from carbon dioxide, using energy from the sun.

In the longer term, this approach could also be used to power micro- or nanoscale robots. Strano's lab has already begun building robots at that scale, which could one day be used as diagnostic or environmental sensors. The idea of being able to scavenge energy from the environment, including approaches that produce electricity 'out of thin air' in ambient conditions, to power these kinds of robots is appealing, he says.

"It means you don't have to put the energy storage on board," he says. "What we like about this mechanism is that you can take the energy, at least in part, from the environment."

 

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Solar PV and wind power in the US continue to grow amid favourable government plans

US Renewable Power Outlook 2030 projects surging capacity, solar PV and wind growth, grid modernization, and favorable tax credits, detailing market trends, CAGR, transmission expansion, and policy drivers shaping clean energy generation and consumption.

 

Key Points

A forecast of US power capacity, generation, and consumption, highlighting solar, wind, tax credits, and grid modernization.

✅ Targets 48.4% renewable capacity share by 2030

✅ Strong growth in solar PV and onshore wind installations

✅ Investment and tax credits drive grid and transmission upgrades

 

GlobalData’s latest report, ‘United States Power Market Outlook to 2030, Update 2021 – Market Trends, Regulations, and Competitive Landscape’ discusses the power market structure of the United States and provides historical and forecast numbers for capacity, generation and consumption up to 2030. Detailed analysis of the country’s power market regulatory structure, competitive landscape and a list of major power plants are provided. The report also gives a snapshot of the power sector in the country on broad parameters of macroeconomics, supply security, generation infrastructure, transmission and distribution infrastructure, about a quarter of U.S. electricity from renewables in recent years, electricity import and export scenario, degree of competition, regulatory scenario, and future potential. An analysis of the deals in the country’s power sector is also included in the report.

Renewable power held a 19% share of the US’s total power capacity in 2020, and in that year renewables became the second-most prevalent source in the U.S. electricity mix by generation; this share is expected to increase significantly to 48.4% by 2030. Favourable policies introduced by the US Government will continue to drive the country’s renewable sector, particularly solar photovoltaics (PV) and wind power, with wind now the most-used renewable source in the U.S. generation mix. Installed renewable capacity* increased from 16.5GW in 2000 to 239.2GW in 2020, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 14.3%. By 2030, the cumulative renewable capacity is expected to rise to 884.6GW, growing at a CAGR of 14% from 2020 to 2030. Despite increase in prices of renewable equipment, such as solar modules, in 2021, the US renewable sector will show strong growth during the 2021 to 2030 period as this increase in equipment prices are short term due to supply chain disruptions caused by the Covid-19 pandemic.

The expansion of renewable power capacity during the 2000 to 2020 period has been possible due to the introduction of federal schemes, such as Production Tax Credits, Investment Tax Credits and Manufacturing Tax Credits. These have massively aided renewable installations by bringing down the cost of renewable power generation and making it at par with power generated from conventional sources. Over the last few years, the cost of solar PV and wind power installations has declined sharply, and by 2023 wind, solar, and batteries made up most of the utility-scale pipeline across the US, highlighting investor confidence. Since 2010, the cost of utility-scale solar PV projects decreased by around 82% while onshore wind installations decreased by around 39%. This has supported the rapid expansion of the renewable market. However, the price of solar equipment has risen due to an increase in raw material prices and supply shortages. This may slightly delay the financing of some solar projects that are already in the pipeline.

The US will continue to add significant renewable capacity additions during the forecast period as industry outlooks point to record solar and storage installations over the coming years, to meet its target of reaching 80% clean energy by 2030. In November 2021, President Biden signed a $1tr Infrastructure Bill, within which $73bn is designated to renewables. This includes not just renewable capacity building, but also strengthening the country’s power grid and laying new high voltage transmission lines, both of which will be key to driving solar and wind power capacity additions as wind power surges in the U.S. electricity mix nationwide.

The US was one of the worst hit countries in the world due to the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020. With respect to the power sector, the electricity consumption in the country declined by 2.5% in 2020 as compared to 2019, even as renewable electricity surpassed coal in 2022 in the generation mix, highlighting continued structural change. Power plants that were under construction faced delays due to unavailability of components due to supply chain disruptions and unavailability of labour due to travel restrictions.

According to the US Energy Information Administration, 61 power projects, having a total capacity of 2.4GWm which were under construction during March and April 2020 were delayed because of the Covid-19 pandemic. Among renewable power technologies, solar PV and wind power projects were the most badly affected due to the pandemic.

In March and April 2020, 53 solar PV projects, having a total capacity of 1.3GW, and wind power projects, having a total capacity of 1.2GW, were delayed due to the Covid-19 pandemic. Moreover, several states suspended renewable energy auctions due to the pandemic.

For instance, New York State Energy Research and Development Authority (NYSERDA) had issued a new offshore wind solicitation for 1GW and up to 2.5GW in April 2020, but this was suspended due to the Covid-19 pandemic. In July 2020, the authority relaunched the tender for 2.5GW of offshore wind capacity, with a submission deadline in October 2020.

To ease the financial burden on consumers during the pandemic, more than 1,000 utilities in the country announced disconnection moratoria and implemented flexible payment plans. Duke Energy, American Electric Power, Dominion Power and Southern California Edison were among the major utilities that voluntarily suspended disconnections.

 

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Duke Energy installing high-tech meters for customers

Duke Energy Smart Meters enable remote meter reading, daily energy usage data, and two-way outage detection via AMI, with encrypted data, faster restoration, and remote connect/disconnect for Indiana customers in Howard County.

 

Key Points

Advanced meters that support remote readings, daily usage insights, two-way outage detection, and secure, encrypted data.

✅ Daily energy usage available online the next day

✅ Two-way communications speed outage detection and restoration

✅ Remote connect/disconnect; manual reads optional with opt-out fee

 

Say goodbye to your neighborhood meter reader. Say hello to your new smart meter.

Over the next three months, Duke Energy will install nearly 43,000 new high-tech electric meters for Howard County customers that will allow the utility company to remotely access meters via the digital grid instead of sending out employees to a homeowner's property for walk-by readings.

That means there's no need to estimate bills when meters can't be easily accessed, such as during severe weather or winter storms.

Other counties serviced by Duke Energy slated to receive the meters include Miami, Tipton, Cass and Carroll counties.

Angeline Protogere, Duke Energy's lead communication consultant, said besides saving the company money and manpower, the new smart meters come with a host of benefits for customers enabled by smart grid solutions today.

The meters are capable of capturing daily energy usage data, which is available online the next day. Having this information available on a daily basis can help customers make smarter energy decisions and support customer analytics that avoid billing surprises at the end of the month, she said.

"The real advantage is for the consumer, because they can track their energy usage and adjust their usage before the bills come," Protogere said.

When it comes to power outages, the meters are capable of two-way communications. That allows the company to know more about an outage through synchrophasor monitoring, which can help speed up restoration. However, customers will still need to notify Duke Energy if their power goes out.

If a customer is moving, they don't have to wait for a Duke Energy representative to come to the premises to connect or disconnect the energy service because requests can be performed remotely.

Protogere said when it comes to installing the meters, the changeover takes less than 5 minutes to complete. Customers should receive advance notices from the company, but the technician also will knock on the door to let the customer know they are there.

If no one is available and the meter is safely accessible, the technician will go ahead and change out the meter, Protogere said. There will be a momentary outage between the time the old meter is removed and the new meter is installed.

Kokomo and the surrounding areas are one of the last parts of the state to receive Duke Energy's new, high-tech meters, which are commonly used by other utility companies and in smart city initiatives across the U.S.

Protogere said statewide, the company started installing smart meters in August 2016 as utilities deploy digital transformer stations to modernize the grid. To date, they have installed 694,000 of the 854,000 they have planned for the state.

The company says the information stored and transmitted on the smart meters is safe, protected and confidential. Duke Energy said on its website that it does not share data with anyone without customers' authorization. The information coming from the meters is encrypted and protected from the moment it is collected until the moment it is purged, the company said.

Digital smart meter technology uses radio frequency bands that have been used for many years in devices such as baby monitors and medical monitors. The radio signals are far below the levels emitted by common household appliances and electronics, including cellphones and microwave ovens.

According to the World Health Organization, FCC, U.S. Food and Drug Administration and Electric Power Research Institute, no adverse health effects have been shown to occur from the radio frequency signals produced by smart meters or other such wireless networks.

However, customers can still opt-out of getting a smart meter and continue to have their meter manually read.

Those who choose not to get a smart meter must pay a $75 initial opt-out fee and an additional $17.50 monthly meter reading charge per account.

If smart meters have not yet been installed, Duke Energy will waive the $75 initial opt-out fee if customers notify the company they want to opt out within 21 days of receiving the installation postcard notice.

 

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"Kill the viability": big batteries to lose out from electricity grid rule change

AEMC Storage Charging Rules spark industry backlash as Tesla, Snowy Hydro, and investors warn transmission charges on batteries and pumped hydro could deter grid-scale storage, distort the National Electricity Market, and slow decarbonisation.

 

Key Points

AEMC Storage Charging Rules are proposals to bill grid storage for network use, shaping costs and investment.

✅ Charges apply when batteries draw power; double-charging concerns.

✅ Tesla and Snowy Hydro warn of reduced viability and delays.

✅ AEMO recommends exemptions; investors seek certainty.

 

Tesla, Snowy Hydro and other big suppliers of storage capacity on Australia’s main electricity grid warn proposed rule changes amount to a tax on their operations that will deter investors and slow the decarbonisation of the industry.

The Australian Energy Market Commission (AEMC) will release its final decision this Thursday on new rules for integrating batteries, pumped hydro and other forms of storage.

The AEMC’s draft decision, released in July, angered many firms because it proposed charging storage providers for drawing power, ignoring a recommendation by the Australian Electricity Market Operator (AEMO) that they be exempt.

Battery maker Tesla, which has supplied some of the largest storage to the National Electricity Market, said in a submission that the charges would “kill the commercial viability of all grid storage projects, causing inefficient investment in alternative network”, with consumers paying higher costs.

Snowy Hydro, which is building the giant Snowy 2 pumped storage project and already operates a smaller one, said in its submission the proposed changes if implemented would jeopardise investment.

“This is a major policy change, amounting to a tax on infrastructure critical to achieving a renewable future,” Snowy Hydro said.

AEMO itself argued it was important storage providers were not “disincentivised from connecting to the transmission network, as they generally provide a net benefit to the power system by charging at periods of low demand”.

Australia’s electricity grid faces economic and engineering challenges, similar to Ontario's storage push as it adjusts to the arrival of lower cost and also lower carbon alternatives to fossil fuels.

While rule changes are necessary to account for operators that can both draw from and supply power, how they are implemented can have long-lasting effects on the technologies that get encouraged or repelled, including control of EV charging issues, independent experts say.

“It doesn’t have to be this way,” said Bruce Mountain, director of the Victoria Energy Policy Centre. “In Britain, where the UK grid transformation is underway, the regulator dealing with the same issues has said that storage devices don’t pay the system charges when they withdraw electricity from the grid,” he said.

The prospect that storage operators will have to pay transmission charges could “drastically” affect their profitability since their business models rely on the difference between the price their pay for power and how much they can sell it for. Gas generators and network monopolies would benefit from the change, Mountain said.

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An AEMC spokesperson said the commission had consulted widely, including from those who objected to the payment for transmission access.

“The market is moving towards a future that will be increasingly reliant on energy storage to firm up the growing volume of renewable energy and deliver on the increasing need for critical system security services, with examples such as EVs supporting grid stability in California as the ageing fleet of thermal generators retire,” the spokesperson said, declining to elaborate on the final ruling before it is published.

“The regulatory framework needs to facilitate this transition as the energy sector continues to decarbonise,” the official said.

AusNet, which operates the Victorian energy transmission grid, said that while “technological neutrality is paramount for battery and hybrid unit connections to both the distribution and transmission networks,” it did not back charging storage access to networks in all cases.

“[Ausnet] supports a clear exemptions framework for energy storage providers,” a spokesperson said. “We recommend that batteries and other hybrid facilities should have transmission use of system charges waived if they provide a net benefit to network customers.”

We are not aware of anyone that supports the charging storage access to networks in all circumstances.

“Batteries and hybrid facilities that consume energy from the network should be provided no preferential treatment relative to other customers and generators.”

Jonathan Upson, a principal at Strategic Renewable Consulting, though, said the AEMC wants electricity flowing through batteries to be taxed twice to pay network charges – once when the electricity charges the battery and then again when the same electricity is sent out by the battery an hour or two later but this time with customers paying.

“The AEMC’s draft decision has the identical rationale for eliminating franking credits on all dividends, resulting in double taxing of company profits,” he said.

Christiaan Zuur, director of energy transformation at the Clean Energy Council, said that while much of AEMC’s draft proposal was constructive, “those benefits are either nullified or maybe even outweighed” by uncertainty over charges.

“Risk perception” will be important since potential newcomers won’t be sure of what charges they will pay to connect to the grid and existing operators could have their connection agreements reopened, Zuur said.

“Investors focus on the potential risk. It does factor through to the integral costs for projects,” he said.

The outcome of new charges may prompt more people to put batteries on their premises and draw power from their own solar panels, Mountain said, with rising EV adoption introducing new grid challenges, cutting their reliance on a centralised network.

“Ironically, it encourages customers to depend less and less on the grid,” he said. “It’s almost like the capture of the dominant interests playing out over time at their own expense.”

Separately, the latest edition of the Clean Energy Council Confidence Index shows leadership by state governments is helping to shore up investor appetite for investing in renewable energy amid 2021 electricity lessons even with higher 2030 emissions reduction goals from the federal government.

Overall, investor confidence increased by a point in the last six months – from 6.3 to 7.3 out of 10 – following strong commitments and policy development from state governments, particularly on the east coast, the council said.

“The results of this latest survey illustrate the economic value in policy that lowers the emissions footprint of our electricity generation, supporting regional centres and creating jobs. Investors recognise the opportunities created by limiting global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees,” said council chief executive Kane Thornton.

Among the states, NSW, Victoria and Queensland led in terms of positive investor sentiment.

Correction: this article was amended on 30 November. An earlier version stated Ausnet supported charging storage for network access. A spokesperson said it backed a waiver on charges if certain conditions are met.        

 

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As New Zealand gets serious about climate change, can electricity replace fossil fuels in time?

New Zealand Energy Transition will electrify transport and industry with renewables, grid-scale solar, wind farms, geothermal, batteries, demand response, pumped hydro, and transmission upgrades to manage dry-year risk and winter peak loads.

 

Key Points

A shift to renewables and smart demand to decarbonise transport and industry while ensuring reliable, affordable power.

✅ Electrifies transport and industrial heat with renewables

✅ Uses demand response, batteries, and pumped hydro for resilience

✅ Targets 99%+ renewable supply, managing dry-year and peak loads

 

As fossil fuels are phased out over the coming decades, the Climate Change Commission (CCC) suggests electricity will take up much of the slack, aligning with the vision of a sustainable electric planet powering our vehicle fleet and replacing coal and gas in industrial processes.

But can the electricity system really provide for this increased load where and when it is needed? The answer is “yes”, with some caveats.

Our research examines climate change impacts on the New Zealand energy system. It shows we’ll need to pay close attention to demand as well as supply. And we’ll have to factor in the impacts of climate change when we plan for growth in the energy sector.

 

Demand for electricity to grow
While electricity use has not increased in NZ in the past decade, many agencies project steeply rising demand in coming years. This is partly due to both increasing population and gross domestic product, but mostly due to the anticipated electrification of transport and industry, which could result in a doubling of demand by mid-century.

It’s hard to get a sense of the scale of the new generation required, but if wind was the sole technology employed to meet demand by 2050, between 10 and 60 new wind farms would be needed nationwide.

Of course, we won’t only build wind farms, as renewables are coming on strong and grid-scale solar, rooftop solar, new geothermal, some new small hydro plant and possibly tidal and wave power will all have a part to play.

 

Managing the demand
As well as providing more electricity supply, demand management and batteries will also be important. Our modelling shows peak demand (which usually occurs when everyone turns on their heaters and ovens at 6pm in winter) could be up to 40% higher by 2050 than it is now.

But meeting this daily period of high demand could see expensive plant sitting idle for much of the time (with the last 25% of generation capacity only used about 10% of the time).

This is particularly a problem in a renewable electricity system when the hydro lakes are dry, as hydro is one of the few renewable electricity sources that can be stored during the day (as water behind the dam) and used over the evening peak (by generating with that stored water).

Demand response will therefore be needed. For example, this might involve an industrial plant turning off when there is too much load on the electricity grid.

 

But by 2050, a significant number of households will also need smart appliances and meters that automatically use cheaper electricity at non-peak times. For example, washing machines and electric car chargers could run automatically at 2am, rather than 6pm when demand is high.

Our modelling shows a well set up demand response system could mitigate dry-year risk (when hydro lakes are low on water) in coming decades, where currently gas and coal generation is often used.

Instead of (or as well as) having demand response and battery systems to combat dry-year risk, a pumped storage system could be built. This is where water is pumped uphill when hydro lake inflows are plentiful, and used to generate electricity during dry periods.

The NZ Battery project is currently considering the potential for this in New Zealand, and debates such as whether we would use Site C's electricity offer relevant lessons.

 

Almost (but not quite) 100% renewable
Dry-year risk would be greatly reduced and there would be “greater greenhouse gas emissions savings” if the Interim Climate Change Committee’s (ICCC) 2019 recommendation to aim for 99% renewable electricity was adopted, rather than aiming for 100%.

A small amount of gas-peaking plant would therefore be retained. The ICCC said going from 99% to 100% renewable electricity by overbuilding would only avoid a very small amount of carbon emissions, at a very high cost.

Our modelling supports this view. The CCC’s draft advice on the issue also makes the point that, although 100% renewable electricity is the “desired end point”, timing is important to enable a smooth transition.

Despite these views, Energy Minister Megan Woods has said the government will be keeping the target of a 100% renewable electricity sector by 2030.

 

Impacts of climate change
In future, the electricity system will have to respond to changing climate patterns as well, becoming resilient to climate risks over time.

The National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research predicts winds will increase in the South Island and decrease in the far north in coming decades.

Inflows to the biggest hydro lakes will get wetter (more rain in their headwaters), and their seasonality will change due to changes in the amount of snow in these catchments.

Our modelling shows the electricity system can adapt to those changing conditions. One good news story (unless you’re a skier) is that warmer temperatures will mean less snow storage at lower elevations, and therefore higher lake inflows in the big hydro catchments in winter, leading to a better match between times of high electricity demand and higher inflows.

 

The price is right
The modelling also shows the cost of generating electricity is not likely to increase, because the price of building new sources of renewable energy continues to fall globally.

Because the cost of building new renewables is now cheaper than non-renewables (such as coal-fired plants), investing in carbon-free electricity is increasingly compelling, and renewables are more likely to be built to meet new demand in the near term.

While New Zealand’s electricity system can enable the rapid decarbonisation of (at least) our transport and industrial heat sectors, international efforts like cleaning up Canada's electricity underline the need for certainty so the electricity industry can start building to meet demand everywhere.

Bipartisan cooperation at government level will be important to encourage significant investment in generation and transmission projects with long lead times and life expectancies, as analyses of climate policy and grid implications underscore in comparable markets.

Infrastructure and markets are needed to support demand response uptake, as well as certainty around the Tiwai exit in 2024 and whether pumped storage is likely to be built.

Our electricity system can support the rapid decarbonisation needed if New Zealand is to do its fair share globally to tackle climate change.

But sound planning, firm decisions and a supportive and relatively stable regulatory framework are all required before shovels can hit the ground.

 

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