Enron's Lay ends testimony

Australia Renewable Energy Transition: solar capacity growth, net-zero goals, rising electricity demand, coal reliance, EV adoption, grid decarbonization, heat waves, air conditioning loads, and policy incentives shaping clean power, efficiency, and emissions reduction.

Key Points

Australia targets net-zero by 2050 by scaling renewables, curbing demand, and phasing down coal and gas.

✅ Solar capacity up 200% since 2018, yet coal remains dominant.

✅ Transport leads energy use; EV uptake lags global average.

✅ Heat waves boost AC load, stressing grids and emissions goals.

A more than 200% increase in installed solar power generation capacity since 2018 helped Australia rank sixth globally in terms of solar capacity last year and emerge as one of the world's fastest-growing major renewable energy producers, aligning with forecasts that renewables to surpass coal in global power generation by 2025.

However, to realise its goal of becoming a net-zero carbon emitter by 2050, Australia must reverse the trajectory of its energy use, which remains on a rising path, even as Asia set to use half of electricity underscores regional demand growth, in contrast with several peers that have curbed energy use in recent years.

Australia's total electricity consumption has grown nearly 8% over the past decade, amid a global power demand surge that has exceeded pre-pandemic levels, compared with contractions over the same period of more than 7% in France, Germany and Japan, and a 14% drop in the United Kingdom, data from Ember shows.

Sustained growth in Australia's electricity demand has in turn meant that power producers must continue to heavily rely on coal for electricity generation on top of recent additions in supply of renewable energy sources, with low-emissions generation growth expected to cover most new demand.

Australia has sharply boosted clean energy capacity in recent years, but remains heavily reliant on coal & natural gas for electricity generation
To accomplish emissions reduction targets on time, Australia's energy use must decline while clean energy supplies climb further, as that would give power producers the scope to shut high-polluting fossil-powered energy generation systems ahead of the 2050 deadline.

DEMAND DRIVERS
Reducing overall electricity and energy use is a major challenge in all countries, where China's electricity appetite highlights shifting consumption patterns, but will be especially tough in Australia which is a relative laggard in terms of the electrification of transport systems and is prone to sustained heat waves that trigger heavy use of air conditioners.

The transport sector uses more energy than any other part of the Australian economy, including industry, and accounted for roughly 40% of total final energy use as of 2020, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA.)

Transport energy demand has also expanded more quickly than other sectors, growing by over 5% from 2010 to 2020 compared to industry's 1.3% growth over the same period.

Transport is Australia's main energy use sector, and oil products are the main source of energy type
To reduce energy use, and cut the country's fuel import bill which topped AUD $65 billion in 2022 alone, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, the Australian government is keen to electrify car fleets and is offering large incentives for electric vehicle purchases.

Even so, electric vehicles accounted for only 5.1% of total Australian car sales in 2022, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).

That compares to 13% in New Zealand, 21% in the European Union, and a global average of 14%.

More incentives for EV purchases are expected, but any rapid adoption of EVs would only serve to increase overall electricity demand, and with surging electricity demand already straining power systems worldwide, place further pressure on power producers to increase electricity supplies.

Heating and cooling for homes and businesses is another major energy demand driver in Australia, and accounts for roughly 40% of total electricity use in the country.

Australia is exposed to harsh weather conditions, especially heat waves which are expected to increase in frequency, intensity and duration over the coming decades due to climate change, according to the New South Wales government.

To cope, Australians are expected to resort to increased use of air conditioners during the hottest times of the year, and with reduced power reserves flagged by the market operator, adding yet more strain to electricity systems.

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Hinkley Point C Reactor Installation signals UK energy security, nuclear power expansion, and low-carbon baseload, featuring EPR technology in Somerset to cut emissions, support net-zero goals, and deliver reliable electricity for homes and businesses.

Key Points

First EPR unit fitted at Hinkley Point C, boosting low-carbon baseload, grid reliability, and UK energy security.

✅ Generates 3.2 GW across two EPRs for 7% of UK electricity.

✅ Provides low-carbon baseload to complement wind and solar.

✅ Creates jobs and strengthens supply chains during construction.

The United Kingdom has made a significant stride toward securing its energy future with the installation of the first reactor at its newest nuclear power station. This development marks an important milestone in the nation’s efforts to combat climate change, reduce carbon emissions, and ensure a stable and sustainable energy supply. As the world moves towards greener alternatives to fossil fuels, nuclear power remains a key part of the UK's green industrial revolution and low-carbon energy strategy.

The new power station, located at Hinkley Point C in Somerset, is set to be one of the most advanced nuclear facilities in the country. The installation of its reactor represents a crucial step in the construction of the plant, with earlier milestones like the reactor roof lifted into place underscoring steady progress, which is expected to provide reliable, low-carbon electricity for millions of homes and businesses across the UK. The completion of the first reactor is seen as a pivotal moment in the journey to bring the station online, with the second reactor expected to follow shortly after.

A Historic Milestone

Hinkley Point C will be the UK’s first nuclear power station built in over two decades. The plant, once fully operational, will play a key role in the country's energy transition. The reactors at Hinkley Point C are designed to be state-of-the-art, using advanced technology that is both safer and more efficient than older nuclear reactors. Each of the two reactors will have the capacity to generate 1.6 gigawatts of electricity, enough to power approximately six million homes. Together, they will contribute about 7% of the UK’s electricity needs, providing a steady, reliable source of energy even during periods of high demand.

The installation of the first reactor at Hinkley Point C is not just a technical achievement; it is also symbolic of the UK’s commitment to energy security and its goal to achieve net-zero carbon emissions by 2050, a target that industry leaders say multiple new stations will be needed to meet effectively. Nuclear power is a crucial part of this equation, as it provides a stable, baseload source of energy that does not rely on weather conditions, unlike wind or solar power.

Boosting the UK’s Energy Capacity

The addition of Hinkley Point C to the UK’s energy infrastructure is expected to significantly boost the country’s energy capacity and reduce its reliance on fossil fuels. The UK government has been focused on increasing the share of renewable energy in its mix, and nuclear power is seen as an essential complement to intermittent renewable sources, especially as wind and solar have surpassed nuclear in generation at times. Nuclear energy is considered a low-carbon, reliable energy source that can fill the gaps when renewable generation is insufficient, such as on cloudy or calm days when solar and wind energy output may be low.

With the aging of the UK’s existing nuclear fleet and the gradual phase-out of coal-fired power plants, Hinkley Point C will help ensure that the country does not face an energy shortage as it transitions to cleaner energy sources. The plant will help to bridge the gap between the current energy infrastructure and the future, enabling the UK to phase out coal while maintaining a steady, low-carbon energy supply.

Safety and Technological Innovation

The reactors at Hinkley Point C are being constructed using the latest in nuclear technology. They are based on the European Pressurized Reactor (EPR) design, which is known for its enhanced safety features and efficiency, and has been deployed in projects within China's nuclear program as well, making it a proven platform. These reactors are designed to withstand extreme conditions, including earthquakes and flooding, making them highly resilient. Additionally, the EPR technology ensures that the reactors have a low environmental impact, producing minimal waste and offering the potential for increased sustainability compared to older reactor designs.

One of the key innovations in the Hinkley Point C reactors is their advanced cooling system, which is designed to be more efficient and environmentally friendly than previous generations. This system ensures that the reactors operate at optimal temperatures while minimizing the environmental footprint of the plant.

Economic and Job Creation Benefits

The construction of Hinkley Point C has already provided a significant boost to the local economy. Thousands of jobs have been created, not only in the construction phase but also in the ongoing operation and maintenance of the facility. The plant is expected to create more than 25,000 jobs during its construction and around 900 permanent jobs once it is operational.

The project is also expected to have a positive impact on the wider UK economy. As a major infrastructure project, Hinkley Point C will provide long-term economic benefits, including boosting supply chains and providing opportunities for local businesses.

Challenges and the Road Ahead

Despite the progress, the construction of Hinkley Point C has not been without its challenges. The project has faced delays and cost overruns, with setbacks at Hinkley Point C documented by industry observers, and the total estimated cost now standing at around £22 billion. However, the successful installation of the first reactor is a step toward overcoming these hurdles and completing the project on schedule.

Looking ahead, Hinkley Point C’s successful operation could pave the way for future nuclear developments in the UK, including next-gen nuclear designs that aim to be smaller, cheaper, and safer. As the world grapples with the pressing need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, nuclear energy may play an even more critical role in ensuring a clean, reliable energy future.

The installation of the first reactor at Hinkley Point C marks a crucial moment in the UK’s energy journey. As the country seeks to meet its carbon reduction targets and bolster its energy security, the new nuclear power station will be a cornerstone of its efforts. With its advanced technology, safety features, and potential to provide low-carbon energy for decades to come, Hinkley Point C offers a glimpse into the future of energy production in the UK and beyond.

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Goreway Power Station Overbilling exposed by Ontario Energy Board shows IESO oversight failures, GCG gaming, and $100M in inappropriate payments at the Brampton natural gas plant, penalized with fines and repayments impacting Ontario ratepayers.

Key Points

Goreway exploited IESO GCG flaws, causing about $100M in improper payouts and fines.

✅ OEB probe flagged $89M in ineligible start-up O&M charges

✅ IESO fined Goreway $10M; majority of excess costs recovered

✅ Audit found $200M in overbilling across nine generators

Hydro customers shelled out about $100 million in "inappropriate" payments to a natural gas plant that exploited flaws in how Ontario manages its private electricity generators, according to the Ontario Energy Board.

The company operating the Goreway Power Station in Brampton "gamed" the system for at least three years, according to an investigation by the provincial energy regulator. 

The investigation also delivers stinging criticism of the provincial government's Independent Electricity System Operator (IESO), slamming it for a lack of oversight. The probe by the Ontario Energy Board's market surveillance panel was completed nearly a year ago, but was only made public in November because it was buried on its website without a news release. CBC News is the first media outlet to report on the investigation.  

The excess payments to Goreway Power Station included:

• $89 million in ineligible expenses billed as the costs of firing up power production. 
• $5.6 million paid in three months from a flaw in how IESO calculated top-ups for the company committing to generate power a day in advance.   
• Of $11.2 million paid to compensate the company for IESO ordering it to start or stop generating power, the investigation concluded "a substantial portion ... was the result of gaming."  

Most privately-owned natural gas-fired plants in the province do not generate electricity constantly, but start and stop production in response to fluctuating market demand, even as the energy minister has requested an halt to natural gas generation across the grid.  IESO pays them a premium for the costs of firing up production, through what it calls "generation cost guarantee" programs. 

But the investigation found IESO did little checking into the details of Goreway Power Station's billings. 

Goreway Power Station, located near Highway 407 in Brampton, Ont., is an 875 megawatt natural gas power plant. (Goreway)

"Conservatively, at least $89 million of Goreway's submissions were clearly ineligible by any reasonable measure," concludes the report.

"Goreway routinely submitted what were obviously inappropriate expenses to be reimbursed by the IESO, and ultimately borne by Ontario ratepayers,"

The investigation panel found an "extraordinary pattern" to these billings by Goreway Power Station, suggesting the IESO should have caught on sooner. The company submitted more than $100 million in start-up operating and maintenance costs during the three-year period investigated — more than all other gas-fired generators in the province combined. The company's costs per start-up were more than double the next most expensive power generator. 

"Goreway repeatedly exploited defects in the GCG (generation cost guarantee) program, and in doing so received at least $89 million in gamed GCG payments." 

Company fined $10M

The investigation covered a three-year period from when Goreway Power Station began generating power in June 2009. Investigators said that delays in releasing documents slowed down their probe, and they only obtained all the records they needed in April 2016.

The investigating panel does not have the power to impose penalties on companies it found broke the rules. 

The IESO fined Goreway Power Station $10 million. The company has also repaid IESO "a substantial portion" of the excess payments it received during its first six years of operating, but the exact figure is blacked out in the investigation report that was made public. 

The control room from which the provincial government's Independent Electricity System Operator manages Ontario's power supply. The agency is also responsible for managing contracts with private power producers.(IESO)

"Goreway does not agree with many of the draft report's findings and conclusions, including any suggestion that Goreway engaged in gaming or that it deliberately misled the IESO," writes lawyer George Vegh on behalf of the company in a response to the investigation report, dated Aug. 1.

"Goreway has implemented initiatives designed to ensure that compliance is a chief operating principle."     

The power station, located near Highway 407 in Brampton, is a joint venture between Toyota Tsusho Corp. and JERA Co. Inc. During the period under scrutiny, the project was run by Toyota Tsusho and Chubu Electric Power Inc., both headquartered in Japan. 

Investigators fear 'same situation' exists today

The report blames the provincially-controlled IESO for creating a system with defects that allowed the over-billing. 

"Goreway was able to — and repeatedly did — exploit these defects," says the investigation report. It goes on to explain the flaws "have created opportunities for exploitation, to the serious financial disadvantage of Ontario's ratepayers," even as greening Ontario's grid could entail massive costs.

The investigation suggests IESO hasn't made adequate changes to ensure it won't happen again, at a time when an analysis of a dirtier grid is raising concerns.   

"Goreway stands as a clear example of how generators are able to exploit the generation costs guarantee regime," says the report.

"The Panel is concerned that the same situation remains in place today." 

PC energy critic Todd Smith raised CBC News' report on the Goreway Power Station in Tuesday's question period. (Ontario Legislature)

After CBC News broke the story Tuesday, the provincial government was forced to respond in question period, amid a broader push for new gas plants to boost electricity production. 

"Here we have yet another gas plant scandal in Peel region that's costing electricity customers over $100 million," said PC energy critic Todd Smith. He slammed "the incompetence of a government that once again failed to look out for electricity customers." 

Economic Development Minister Brad Duguid said: "There is no excuse for any company in this province to ever game the system."

Nine companies overbilled $200M: audit 

The IESO found out about the overbilling "some time ago," said Duguid.

"They fully investigated, they've recovered most of the cost, they delivered a $10 million fine — the biggest fine on record."

The program that Goreway exploited became the subject of an audit that the IESO launched in 2011. The agency uncovered $200 million in ineligible billings by nine power producers, wrote the IESO vice president for policy Terry Young in an email to CBC News.

The IESO has recovered up to 85 per cent of those ineligible costs, Young noted.

Reforms to the design of the the program have removed the potential for overpayments and made it more efficient, he said, even as Ontario weighs embracing clean power more broadly. Last year, its total annual costs dropped to $23 million, down from $61 million in 2014.

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Canada Economic Crossroads highlights bank earnings trends, interest rates, loan delinquencies, EV tariffs on Chinese imports, domestic manufacturing, Algoma Steel decarbonization, sustainability, and housing market risks shaping growth, investment, consumer prices, and climate policy.

Key Points

An overview of how bank earnings, EV tariffs, and Algoma Steel's transition shape Canada's economy.

✅ Higher rates lift margins but raise delinquencies and housing risks

✅ EV tariffs aid domestic makers but pressure consumer prices

✅ Algoma invests to decarbonize, boosting efficiency and compliance

In a complex economic landscape, recent developments have brought attention to several pivotal issues affecting Canada's business sector. The Globe and Mail’s latest report delves into three major topics: the latest bank earnings, the implications of new tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles (EVs), and Algoma Steel’s strategic maneuvers. These factors collectively paint a picture of the challenges and opportunities facing Canada's economy.

Bank Earnings Reflect Economic Uncertainty

The recent financial reports from major Canadian banks have revealed a mixed picture of the nation’s economic health. As the Globe and Mail reports, earnings results show robust performances in some areas while highlighting growing concerns in others. Banks have generally posted strong quarterly results, buoyed by higher interest rates which have improved their net interest margins. This uptick is largely attributed to the central bank's monetary policies aimed at combating inflation and stabilizing the economy.

However, the positive earnings are tempered by underlying economic uncertainties. Rising loan delinquencies and a slowing housing market are areas of concern. Increased interest rates, while beneficial for banks’ margins, have also led to higher borrowing costs for consumers and businesses. This dynamic has the potential to impact overall economic growth and consumer confidence.

Tariffs on Chinese EVs: A Strategic Shift

Another significant development is the imposition of new tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles. This move is part of a broader strategy to protect domestic automotive industries and address trade imbalances, aligning with public support for tariffs in key sectors. The tariffs are expected to increase the cost of Chinese EVs in Canada, which could have several implications for the market.

On one hand, the tariffs might provide a temporary boost to Canadian and North American manufacturers by reducing competition from lower-priced Chinese imports. This protectionist measure could encourage investments in local production and innovation, mirroring tariff threats boosting support for energy projects in other sectors. However, the increased cost of Chinese EVs may also lead to higher prices for consumers, potentially slowing the adoption of electric vehicles—a critical goal in Canada’s climate strategy.

The tariffs come at a time when the Canadian government is keen on accelerating the transition to electric mobility to meet its environmental targets, even as a critical crunch in electrical supply raises questions about grid readiness. Balancing the protection of domestic industries with the broader goal of reducing emissions will be a significant challenge moving forward.

Algoma Steel’s Strategic Evolution

In the steel industry, Algoma Steel has been making headlines with its strategic initiatives aimed at transforming its operations, in a broader shift toward clean grids and industrial decarbonization. The Globe and Mail highlights Algoma Steel's efforts to modernize its production processes and shift towards more sustainable practices. This includes significant investments in technology and infrastructure to enhance production efficiency and reduce environmental impact.

Algoma's focus on reducing carbon emissions aligns with broader industry trends towards sustainability. The company’s efforts are part of a larger push within the steel sector to address climate change and meet regulatory requirements. As one of Canada’s leading steel producers, Algoma’s actions could set a precedent for the industry, showcasing how traditional manufacturing sectors can adapt to evolving environmental standards.

Implications and Future Outlook

The interplay of these developments reflects a period of significant transition for Canada's economy, shaped in part by U.S. policy where Biden is seen as better for Canada's energy sector by some analysts. For banks, the challenge will be to navigate the balance between profitability and potential risks from a changing economic environment. The new tariffs on Chinese EVs represent a strategic shift with mixed implications for the automotive market, potentially influencing both domestic production and consumer prices. Meanwhile, Algoma Steel’s push towards sustainability could serve as a model for other industries seeking to align with environmental goals.

As these issues unfold, stakeholders across sectors will need to stay informed and adaptable. For policymakers, the challenge will be to support domestic industries while fostering innovation and sustainability, including the dilemma over electricity rates and innovation they must weigh. For businesses, the focus will be on navigating financial pressures and leveraging opportunities for growth. Consumers, in turn, will face the impact of these developments in their daily lives, from the cost of borrowing to the price of electric vehicles.

In summary, Canada’s current economic landscape is characterized by a blend of financial resilience, strategic adjustments, and evolving industry practices, amid policy volatility such as a tariff threat delaying Quebec's green energy bill earlier this year. As the country navigates these crossroads, the outcomes of these developments will play a crucial role in shaping the future economic environment.

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Advanced Traffic Light System for Geothermal Safety models fracture growth and friction with rock physics, geophones, and supercomputers to predict induced seismicity during hydraulic stimulation, enabling real-time risk control for ETH Zurich and SED.

Key Points

ATLS uses rock physics, geophones, and HPC to forecast induced seismicity in real time during geothermal stimulation.

✅ Real-time seismic risk forecasts during hydraulic stimulation

✅ Uses rock physics, friction, and fracture modeling on HPC

✅ Supports ETH Zurich and SED field tests in Iceland and Bedretto

The Swiss Earthquake Service and ETH Zurich want to make geothermal energy safer, so news piece from Switzerland earlier this month. This is to be made possible by new software, including machine learning, and the computing power of supercomputers. The first geothermal tests have already been carried out in Iceland, and more will follow in the Bedretto laboratory.

In areas with volcanic activity, the conditions for operating geothermal plants are ideal. In Iceland, the Hellisheidi power plant makes an important contribution to sustainable energy use, alongside innovations like electricity from snow in cold regions.

Deep geothermal energy still has potential. This is the basis of the 2050 energy strategy. While the inexhaustible source of energy in volcanically active areas along fault zones of the earth’s crust can be tapped with comparatively little effort and, where viable, HVDC transmission used to move power to demand centers, access on the continents is often much more difficult and risky. Because the geology of Switzerland creates conditions that are more difficult for sustainable energy production.

Improve the water permeability of the rock

On one hand, you have to drill four to five kilometers deep to reach the correspondingly heated layers of earth in Switzerland. It is only at this depth that temperatures between 160 and 180 degrees Celsius can be reached, which is necessary for an economically usable water cycle. On the other hand, the problem of low permeability arises with rock at these depths. “We need a permeability of at least 10 millidarcy, but you can typically only find a thousandth of this value at a depth of four to five kilometers,” says Thomas Driesner, professor at the Institute of Geochemistry and Petrology at ETH Zurich.

In order to improve the permeability, water is pumped into the subsurface using the so-called “fracture”. The water acts against friction, any fracture surfaces shift against each other and tensions are released. This hydraulic stimulation expands fractures in the rock so that the water can circulate in the hot crust. The fractures in the earth’s crust originate from tectonic tensions, caused in Switzerland by the Adriatic plate, which moves northwards and presses against the Eurasian plate.

In addition to geothermal energy, the “Advanced Traffic Light System” could also be used in underground construction or in construction projects for the storage of carbon dioxide.

Quake due to water injection

The disadvantage of such hydraulic stimulations are vibrations, which are often so weak or cannot be perceived without measuring instruments. But that was not the case with the geothermal projects in St. Gallen 2013 and Basel 2016. A total of around 11,000 cubic meters of water were pumped into the borehole in Basel, causing the pressure to rise. Using statistical surveys, the magnitudes 2.4 and 2.9 defined two limit values ??for the maximum permitted magnitude of the earthquakes generated. If these are reached, the water supply is stopped.

In Basel, however, there was a series of vibrations after a loud bang, with a time delay there were stronger earthquakes, which startled the residents. In both cities, earthquakes with a magnitude greater than 3 have been recorded. Since then it has been clear that reaching threshold values ??determines the stop of the water discharge, but this does not guarantee safety during the actual drilling process.

Simulation during stimulation

The Swiss Seismological Service SED and the ETH Zurich are now pursuing a new approach that can be used to predict in real time, building on advances by electricity prediction specialists in Europe, during a hydraulic stimulation whether noticeable earthquakes are expected in the further course. This is to be made possible by the so-called “Advanced Traffic Light System” based on rock physics, a software developed by the SED, which carries out the analysis on a high-performance computer.

Geophones measure the ground vibrations around the borehole, which serve as indicators for the probability of noticeable earthquakes. The supercomputer then runs through millions of possible scenarios, similar to algorithms to prevent power blackouts during ransomware attacks, based on the number and type of fractures to be expected, the friction and tensions in the rock. Finally, you can filter out the scenario that best reflects the underground.

Further tests in the mountain

However, research is currently still lacking any real test facility for the system, because incorrect measurements must be eliminated and a certain data format adhered to before the calculations on the supercomputer. The first tests were carried out in Iceland last year, with more to follow in the Bedretto geothermal laboratory in late summer, where reliable backup power from fuel cell solutions can keep instrumentation running. An optimum can now be found between increasing the permeability of rock layers and an adequate water supply.

The new approach could make geothermal energy safer and ultimately help this energy source to become more accepted, while grid upgrades like superconducting cables improve efficiency. Research also sees areas of application wherever artificially caused earthquakes can occur, such as in underground mining or in the storage of carbon dioxide underground.

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COVID-19 Impact on U.S. Electricity Consumption shows commercial and industrial demand dropped as residential use rose, with flattened peak loads, weekday-weekend convergence, Texas hourly data, and energy demand as a real-time economic indicator.

Key Points

It reduced commercial and industrial demand while raising residential use, shifting peaks and weekday patterns.

✅ Commercial electricity down 12%; industrial down 14% in Q2 2020

✅ Residential use up 10% amid work-from-home and lockdowns

✅ Peaks flattened; weekday-weekend loads converged in Texas

This is an important turning point for the United States. We have a long road ahead. But one of the reasons I’m optimistic about Biden-Harris is that we will once again have an administration that believes in science.

To embrace this return to science, I want to write today about a fascinating new working paper by Tufts economist Steve Cicala.

Professor Cicala has been studying the effect of Covid on electricity consumption since back in March, when the Wall Street Journal picked up his work documenting an 18% decrease in electricity consumption in Italy.

The new work, focused on the United States, is particularly compelling because it uses data that allows him to distinguish between residential, commercial, and industrial sectors, against a backdrop of declining U.S. electricity sales over recent years.

Without further ado, here are four facts he uncovers about Covid and U.S. electricity demand during COVID-19 and consumption.

Fact #1: Firms Are Using Less
U.S. commercial electricity consumption fell 12% during the second quarter of 2020. U.S. industrial electricity consumption fell 14% over the same period.

This makes sense. The second quarter was by some measures, the worst quarter for the U.S. economy in over 145 years!

Economic activity shrank. Schools closed. Offices closed. Factories closed. Restaurants closed. Malls closed. Even health care offices closed as patients delayed going to the dentist and other routine care. All this means less heating and cooling, less lighting, less refrigeration, less power for computers and other office equipment, less everything.

The decrease in the industrial sector is a little more surprising. My impression had been that the industrial sector had not fallen as far as commercial, but amid broader disruptions in coal and nuclear power that strained parts of the energy economy, the patterns for both sectors are quite similar with the decline peaking in May and then partially rebounding by July. The paper also shows that areas with higher unemployment rates experienced larger declines in both sectors.

Fact #2: Households Are Using More
While firms are using less, households are using more. U.S. residential electricity consumption increased 10% during the second quarter of 2020. Consumption surged during March, April, and May, a reflection of the lockdown lifestyle many adopted, and then leveled off in June and July – with much less of the rebound observed on the commercial/industrial side.

This pattern makes sense, too. In Professor Cicala’s words, “people are spending an inordinate amount of time at home”. Many of us switched over to working from home almost immediately, and haven’t looked back. This means more air conditioning, more running the dishwasher, more CNN (especially last week), more Zoom, and so on.

The paper also examines the correlates of the decline. Areas in the U.S. where more people can work from home experienced larger increases. Unemployment rates, however, are almost completely uncorrelated with the increase.

Fact #3: Firms are Less Peaky
The paper next turns to a novel dataset from Texas, where Texas grid reliability is under active discussion, that makes it possible to measure hourly electricity consumption by sector.

As the figure above illustrates, the biggest declines in commercial/industrial electricity consumption have occurred Monday through Friday between 9AM and 5PM.

The dashed line shows the pattern during 2019. Notice the large spikes in electricity consumption during business hours. The solid line shows the pattern during 2020. Much smaller spikes during business hours.

Fact #4: Everyday is Like Sunday
Finally, we have what I would like to nominate as the “Energy Figure of the Year”.

Again, start with the pattern for 2019, reflected by the dashed line. Prior to Covid, Texas households used a lot more electricity on Saturdays and Sundays.

Then along comes Covid, and turned every day into the weekend. Residential electricity consumption in Texas during business hours Monday-Friday is up 16%(!).

In the pattern for 2020, it isn’t easy to distinguish weekends from weekdays. If you feel like weekdays and weekends are becoming a big blur – you are not alone.

Conclusion
Researchers are increasingly thinking about electricity consumption as a real-time indicator of economic activity, even as flat electricity demand complicates utility planning and investment. This is an intriguing idea, but Professor Cicala’s new paper shows that it is important to look sector-by-sector.

While commercial and industrial consumption indeed seem to measure the strength of an economy, residential consumption has been sharply countercylical – increasing exactly when people are not at work and not at school.

These large changes in behavior are specific to the pandemic. Still, with the increased blurring of home and non-home activities we may look back on 2020 as a key turning point in how we think about these three sectors of the economy.

More broadly, Professor Cicala’s paper highlights the value of social science research. We need facts, data, and yes, science, if we are to understand the economy and craft effective policies on energy insecurity and shut-offs as well.

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