Siemens to open wind operations center

US Electricity Demand 2018-2050 projects slower growth as energy consumption, power generation, air conditioning, and electric heating shift with efficiency standards, commercial floor space, industrial load, and household growth across the forecast horizon.

Key Points

A forecast of US power use across homes, commercial space, industrial load, and efficiency trends from 2018 to 2050.

✅ 2018 generation hit record; residential sales up 6%.

✅ Efficiency curbs demand; growth lags population and floor space.

✅ Commercial sales up 2%; industrial demand fell 3% in 2018.

Last year's Houston cold winter and hot summer drove power use to record levels, especially among households that rely on electricity for air conditioning during extreme weather conditions.

Electricity generation increased 4 per cent nationwide in 2018 and produced 4,178 million megawatt hours, driven in part by record natural gas generation across the U.S., surpassing the previous peak of 4,157 megawatt hours set in 2007, the Energy Department reported.

U.S. households bought 6 percent more electricity in 2018 than they did the previous year, despite longer-term declines in national consumption, reflecting the fact 87 percent of households cool their homes with air conditioning and 35 percent use electricity for heating.

Electricity sales to the commercial sector increased 2 percent in 2018 compared to the previous year while the industrial sector bought 3 percent less last year.

Going forward, the Energy Department forecasts that electricity consumption will grow at a slower pace than in recent decades, aligning with falling sales projections as technology improves and energy efficiency standards moderate consumption.

The economy and population growth are primary drivers of demand and the government predicts the number of households will grow at 0.7 percent per year from now until 2050 but electricity demand will grow only by 0.4 percent annually.

Likewise, commercial floor space is expected to increase 1 percent per year from now until 2050 but electricity sales will increase only by half that amount.

Globally, surging electricity demand is putting power systems under strain, providing context for these domestic trends.

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Nalcor Energy Pandemic Loss underscores Muskrat Falls delays, hydroelectric risks, oil price shocks, and COVID-19 impacts, affecting ratepayers, provincial debt, timelines, and software commissioning for the Churchill River project and Atlantic Canada subsea transmission.

Key Points

A $171M Q1 2020 downturn linked to COVID-19, oil price collapse, and Muskrat Falls delays impacting schedules and costs.

✅ Q1 2020 profit swing: +$92M to -$171M amid oil price crash

✅ Muskrat Falls timeline slips; cost may reach $13.1B

✅ Software, workforce, COVID-19 constraints slow commissioning

Newfoundland and Labrador's Crown energy corporation reported a pandemic-related profit loss from the first quarter of 2020 on Tuesday, along with further complications to the beleaguered Muskrat Falls hydroelectric project.

Nalcor Energy recorded a profit loss of $171 million in the first quarter of 2020, down from a $92 million profit in the same period last year, due in part to falling oil prices during the COVID-19 pandemic.

The company released its financial statements for 2019 and the first quarter of 2020 on Tuesday, and officials discussed the numbers in a livestreamed presentation that detailed the impact of the global health crisis on the company's operations.

The loss in the first quarter was caused by lower profits from electricity sales and a drop in oil prices due to the pandemic and other global events, company officials said.

The novel coronavirus also added to the troubles plaguing the Muskrat Falls hydroelectric dam on Labrador's Churchill River, amid Quebec-N.L. energy tensions that long predate the pandemic.

Work at the remote site stopped in March over concerns about spreading the virus. Operations have been resuming slowly, with a reduced workforce tackling the remaining jobs.

Officials with Nalcor said it will likely be another year before the megaproject is complete.

CEO Stan Marshall estimates the months of delays could bring the total cost to $13.1 billion including financing, up from the previous estimate of $12.7 billion -- though the total impact of the coronavirus on the project's price tag has yet to be determined.

"If we're going to shut down again, all of that's wrong," Marshall said. "But otherwise, we can just carry on and we'll have a good idea of the productivity level. I'm hoping that by September we'll have a more definitive number here."

The 824 megawatt hydroelectric dam will eventually send power to Newfoundland, and later Nova Scotia, through subsea cables, even as Nova Scotia boosts wind and solar in its energy mix.

It has seen costs essentially double since it was approved in 2012, and faced significant delays even before pandemic-forced shutdowns in North America and around the world this spring.

Cost and schedule overruns were the subject of a sweeping inquiry that held hearings last year, while broader generation choices like biomass use have drawn scrutiny as well.

The commissioner's report faulted previous governments for failing to protect residents by proceeding with the project no matter what, and for placing trust in Nalcor executives who "frequently" concealed information about schedule, cost and related risks.

Some of the latest delays have come from challenges with the development of software required to run the transmission link between Labrador and Newfoundland, where winter reliability issues have been flagged in reports.

The software is still being worked out, Marshall said Tuesday, and the four units at the dam will come online gradually over the next year.

"It's not an all or nothing thing," Marshall said of the final work stages.
Nalcor's financial snapshot follows a bleak fiscal update from the province this month. The Liberal government reported a net debt of $14.2 billion and a deficit of more than $1.1 billion, even as a recent Churchill Falls deal promised new revenues for the province, citing challenges from pandemic-related closures and oil production shutdowns.

Finance Minister Tom Osborne said at the time that help from Ottawa will be necessary to get the province's finances back on track.

Muskrat Falls represents about one-third of the province's debt, and is set to produce more power than the province of about half a million people requires. Anticipated rate increases due to the ballooning costs and questions about Muskrat Falls benefits have posed a significant political challenge for the provincial government.

Ottawa has agreed to work with Newfoundland and Labrador on a rewrite of the project's financial structure, scrapping the format agreed upon in past federal-provincial loan agreements in order to ease the burden on ratepayers, while some argue independent planning would better safeguard ratepayers.

Marshall, a former Fortis CEO who was brought in to lead Nalcor in 2016, has called the project a "boondoggle" and committed to seeing it completed within four years. Though that plan has been disrupted by the pandemic, Marshall said the end is in sight.

"I'm looking forward to a year from now. And I hope to be gone," Marshall said.

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ERCOT Texas Power Grid Crisis disrupts millions amid a winter storm, with rolling blackouts, power outages, and energy demand; Elon Musk criticizes ERCOT as Tesla owners use Camp Mode while wind turbines face icing

Key Points

A Texas blackout during a winter storm, exposing ERCOT failures, rolling blackouts, and urgent grid resilience measures.

✅ Millions without power amid record cold and energy demand

✅ Elon Musk criticizes ERCOT over grid reliability failures

✅ Tesla Camp Mode aids warmth during extended outages

Tesla CEO Elon Musk on Wednesday slammed the Texas agency responsible for a statewide blackout amid a U.S. grid with frequent outages that has left millions of people to fend for themselves in a freezing cold winter storm.

Musk tweeted that Texas’ power grid manager, the Electricity Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), is not earning the “R” in the acronym, highlighting broader grid vulnerabilities that critics have noted.

Musk moved to Texas from California in December and is building a new Tesla factory in Austin. His critique of the state’s electrical grid operator came after multiple Tesla owners in the state said they had slept in their vehicles to keep warm amid the lingering power outage.

In 2019, Tesla released a vehicle with a “Camp Mode,” which enables owners to use the vehicle’s features – like lights and climate control – without significantly depleting the battery.

“We had the power go out for 6 hours last night. Our house does not have gas, and we ran out of firewood... what are we going to do,” one Reddit user wrote on “r/TeslaMotors.”

“So my wife my dog and my newborn daughter slept in the garage in our Model3 all nice and cozy. If I didn't have this car, it would have been a very rough night.”

More than two dozen people have died in the extreme weather this week, some while struggling to find warmth inside their homes. In the Houston area, one family succumbed to carbon monoxide from car exhaust in their garage. Another perished as they used a fireplace to keep warm.

Utilities from Minnesota to Texas and Mississippi have implemented rolling blackouts to ease the burden on power grids straining to meet extreme demand for heat and electricity, as longer, more frequent outages hit systems nationwide.

More than 3 million customers remained without power in Texas, Louisiana and Mississippi, more than 200,000 more in four Appalachian states, and nearly that many in the Pacific Northwest, according to poweroutage.us, which tracks utility outage reports, and advocates warn that millions could face summer shut-offs without protections.

ERCOT said early Wednesday that electricity had been restored to 600,000 homes and businesses by Tuesday night, though nearly 3 million homes and businesses remained without power, as California turns to batteries to help balance demand. Officials did not know when power would be restored.

ERCOT President Bill Magness said he hoped many customers would see at least partial service restored soon but could not say definitively when that would be.

Magness has defended ERCOT’s decision, saying it prevented an “even more catastrophic than the terrible events we've seen this week."

Utility crews raced Wednesday to restore power to nearly 3.4 million customers around the U.S. who were still without electricity in the aftermath of a deadly winter storm, even as officials urge residents to prepare for summer blackouts that could tax systems further, and another blast of ice and snow threatened to sow more chaos.

The latest storm front was expected to bring more hardship to states that are unaccustomed to such frigid weather — parts of Texas, Arkansas and the Lower Mississippi Valley — before moving into the Northeast on Thursday.

"There's really no letup to some of the misery people are feeling across that area," said Bob Oravec, lead forecaster with the National Weather Service, referring to Texas.

Sweden, known for its brutally cold climate, has offered some advice to Texans unaccustomed to such freezing temperatures, as Canadian grids are increasingly exposed to harsh weather that strains reliability. Stefan Skarp of the Swedish power company told Bloomberg on Tuesday: “The problem with sub-zero temperatures and humid air is that ice will form on the wind turbines.”

“When ice freezes on to the wings, the aerodynamic changes for the worse so that wings catch less and less wind until they don't catch any wind at all,” he said.

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NB Power and Hydro-Québec Electricity Agreements expand clean hydroelectric exports, support Mactaquac dam refurbishment, add grid interconnections, and advance decarbonization, climate goals, reliability, and transmission capacity across Atlantic Canada and U.S. markets through 2040.

Key Points

Deals for hydro exports, Mactaquac upgrades, and new interconnections to improve reliability and cut emissions.

✅ 47 TWh to NB by 2040 over existing transmission lines

✅ HQ expertise to address Mactaquac concrete swelling

✅ Talks on new interconnections for Atlantic and U.S. exports

NB Power and Hydro-Quebec have signed three deals that will see Quebec sell more electricity to New Brunswick and provide help with the refurbishment of the Mactaquac hydroelectric generating station.

Under the first agreement, Hydro-Quebec will export 47 terawatt hours of electricity to New Brunswick between now and 2040 over existing power lines — expanding on an agreement in place since 2012 and on related regional agreements such as the Churchill Falls deal in Newfoundland and Labrador.

The second deal will see Hydro-Quebec share expertise for part of the refurbishment of the Mactaquac dam to extend the useful life of the generating station until at least 2068, when the 670 megawatt facility on the St. John River will be 100 years old.

Since the 1980s, concrete portions of the facility have been affected by a chemical reaction that causes the concrete to swell and crack.

Hydro-Quebec has been dealing with the same problem, and has developed expertise in addressing the issue.

“This is why we have signed a technical collaboration agreement between Hydro-Quebec and us for part of the refurbishment of the Mactaquac generating station,” NB Power president Gaetan Thomas said Friday.

Eric Martel, CEO of Hydro-Quebec, said hydroelectric plants provide long-term clean power that’s important in the fight against climate change as the province has ruled out nuclear power for now.

“We understand how important it is to ensure the long term sustainability of these facilities and we are happy to share the expertise that Hydro-Quebec has acquired over the years,” Martel said.

The refurbishment of the Mactaquac generating station is expected to cost between $2.9 billion and $3.5 billion. Once the work begins, each of the facility’s six generators will have to be taken offline for months at a time, and Thomas said that’s where the increased power from Quebec, supported by Hydro-Quebec's capacity expansion in recent years, will come into use.

He expects the power could cost about $100 million per year but will be much cheaper than other sources.

The third agreement calls for talks to begin for the construction of additional power connections between Quebec and New Brunswick to increase exports to Atlantic Canada and the United States, where transmission constraints have limited incremental deliveries in recent years.

“Building new interconnections and allowing for increased power transfer between our systems could be mutually beneficial, even as historic tensions in Newfoundland and Labrador linger. More than ever, we are looking to the future,” Martel said.

“Partnering will permit us to seize new business opportunities together and pool our effort to support de-carbonization, including Hydro-Quebec's non-fossil strategy that is now underway, and fight against climate change, both here and in our neighbourhood market,” he said. 

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European Power Demand During Second Lockdowns remains resilient as winter heating offsets commercial losses; electricity consumption tracks seasonal norms, with weather sensitivity, industrial activity, natural gas shielding, and coal decline shaping dynamics under COVID-19 restrictions.

Key Points

It is expected to remain near seasonal norms, driven by heating, industry activity, and weather sensitive consumption.

✅ Winter heating offsets retail and hospitality closures

✅ Demand sensitivity rises with colder weather in France

✅ Gas generation shielded; coal likely to curtail first

European power demand is likely to hold up in the second round of national lockdown restrictions, with fluctuations most likely driven by changes in the weather.

Traders and analysts expect normal consumption this time around as home heating during the chilly season replaces commercial demand.

Last week electricity consumption in France, Germany and the U.K. was close to business-as-usual levels for the time of year, according to BloombergNEF data. By contrast, power demand had dropped 16% in the first seven days of the springtime lockdown, as reflected by the U.K.’s 10% daily decline reported then.

How power demand performs has significance outside the sector. It’s often seen as a proxy for economic growth and during lockdowns earlier this year, electricity use slumped along with GDP, and stunted hydro and nuclear output could further hobble recovery. For Western Europe, annual demand is expected to be 5% lower than the previous year, a bigger decline than after the global financial crisis in 2008, according to S&P Global Platts.

The Covid-19 limits are lighter than those from earlier in the year “with an explicit drive to preserve economic activity, particularly at the more energy-intensive industrial end of the spectrum,” said Glenn Rickson, head of European power analysis at S&P Global Platts.

Higher levels of working from home will offset some of the losses from shop and hospitality closures, “but also increase the temperature sensitivity of overall gas and power demand, as heat-driven demand records have shown in recent summers,” he said.

The latest wave of national lockdowns began in France, Germany, Spain, Italy and Britain, with Spain having seen April demand plummet earlier in the year, as coronavirus cases surged and officials struggled to keep the spread of the virus under control.

Much of the manufacturing industry remains working for now despite additional restrictions to contain the coronavirus. With the peak of the second wave yet to be reached, “it seems almost inevitable that the fourth quarter will prove economically challenging,” analysts at Alfa Energy said.

There will initially be significantly less of an impact on demand compared with this spring when global daily demand dipped about 15% and electricity consumption in Europe was down 30%, Johan Sigvardsson, power price analyst at Swedish utility Bixia AB said.

The prevalence of electric heating systems in France means that power demand is particularly sensitive to cold weather. A cold spell would significantly boost demand and drive record electricity prices in tight markets.

Similar to the last round of shutdowns, it’s use of coal that will probably be hit first if power demand sags, as transition-focused responses gather pace, leaving natural gas mostly shielded from fluctuations in the market.

“We expect that another drop in power demand would again impact coal-fired generation and shield gas power to some extent,” said Carlos Torres Diaz, an analyst at Rystad Energy.

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North American Grid Reliability faces extreme weather, climate change, demand spikes, and renewable variability; utilities, AESO, and NERC stress resilience, dispatchable capacity, interconnections, and grid alerts to prevent blackouts during heatwaves and cold snaps.

Key Points

North American grid reliability is the ability to meet demand during extreme weather while maintaining stability.

✅ Extreme heat and cold drive record demand and resource strain.

✅ Balance dispatchable and intermittent generation for resilience.

✅ Expand interconnections, capacity, and demand response to avert outages.

The recent alerts in Alberta's electricity grid during extreme cold have highlighted a broader North American issue, where power systems are more susceptible to being overwhelmed by extreme weather impacts on reliability.

Electricity Canada's chief executive emphasized that no part of the grid is safe from the escalating intensity and frequency of weather extremes linked to climate change across the sector.

“In recent years, during these extreme weather events, we’ve observed record highs in electricity demand,” he stated.

“It’s a nationwide phenomenon. For instance, last summer in Ontario and last winter in Quebec, we experienced unprecedented demand levels. This pattern of extremes is becoming more pronounced across the country.”

The U.S. has also experienced strain on its electricity grids due to extreme weather, with more blackouts than peers documented in studies. Texas faced power outages in 2021 due to winter storms, and California has had to issue several emergency grid alerts during heat waves.

In Canada, Albertans received a government emergency alert two weeks ago, urging an immediate reduction in electricity use to prevent potential rotating blackouts as temperatures neared -40°C. No blackouts occurred, with a notable decrease in electricity use following the alert, according to the Alberta Electric System Operator (AESO).

AESO's data indicates an increase in grid alerts in Alberta for both heatwaves and cold spells, reflecting dangerous vulnerabilities noted nationwide. The period between 2017 and 2020 saw only four alerts, in contrast to 17 since 2021.

Alberta's electricity grid reliability has sparked political debate, including proposals for a western Canadian grid to improve reliability, particularly with the transition from coal-fired plants to increased reliance on intermittent wind and solar power. Despite this debate, the AESO noted that the crisis eased when wind and solar generation resumed, despite challenges with two idled gas plants.

Bradley pointed out that Alberta's grid issues are not isolated. Every Canadian region is experiencing growing electricity demand, partly due to the surge in electric vehicles and clean energy technologies. No province has a complete solution yet.

“Ontario has had to request reduced consumption during heatwaves,” he noted. “Similar concerns about energy mix are present in British Columbia or Manitoba, especially now with drought affecting their hydro-dependent systems.”

The North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) released a report in November warning of elevated risks across North America this winter for insufficient energy supplies, particularly under extreme conditions like prolonged cold snaps.

While the U.S. is generally more susceptible to winter grid disruptions, and summer blackout warnings remain a concern, the report also highlights risks in parts of Canada. Saskatchewan faces a “high” risk due to increased demand, power plant retirements, and maintenance, whereas Quebec and the Maritimes are at “elevated risk.”

Mark Olson, NERC’s manager of reliability assessments, mentioned that Alberta wasn't initially considered at risk, illustrating the challenges in predicting electricity demand amid intensifying extreme weather.

Rob Thornton, president and CEO of the International District Energy Association, acknowledged public concerns about grid alerts but reassured that the risk of a catastrophic grid failure remains very low.

“The North American grid is exceptionally reliable. It’s a remarkably efficient system,” he said.

However, Thornton emphasized the importance of policies for a resilient and reliable electricity system through 2050 and beyond. This involves balancing dispatchable and intermittent electricity sources, investing in extra capacity, enhancing macrogrids and inter-jurisdictional connections, and more.

“These grid alerts raise awareness, if not anxiety, about our energy future,” Thornton concluded.

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