Markets hit OPG investments hard

Germany Nuclear Phase-Out reflects a decisive energy policy shift, retiring reactors as firms shun new builds amid high costs, radioactive waste challenges, climate goals, insurance gaps, and debate over small modular reactors and subsidies.

Key Points

Germany's policy to end nuclear plants and block new builds, emphasizing safety, waste, climate goals, and viability.

✅ Driven by safety risks, waste storage limits, and insurance gaps

✅ High capital costs and subsidies make new reactors uneconomic

✅ Political debate persists; SMRs raise cost and proliferation concerns

A year has passed since Germany deactivated its last three nuclear power plants, marking a significant shift in its energy policy.

Nuclear fission once heralded as the future of energy in Germany during the 1960s, was initially embraced with minimal concern for the potential risks of nuclear accidents. As Heinz Smital from Greenpeace recalls, the early optimism was partly driven by national interest in nuclear weapon technology rather than energy companies' initiatives.

Jochen Flasbarth, State Secretary in the Ministry of Development, reflects on that era, noting Germany's strong, almost naive, belief in technology. Germany, particularly the Ruhr region, grappled with smog-filled skies at that time due to heavy industrialization and coal-fired power plants. Nuclear energy presented a "clean" alternative at the time.

This sentiment was also prevalent in East Germany, where the first commercial nuclear power plant came online in 1961. In total, 37 nuclear reactors were activated across Germany, reflecting a widespread confidence in nuclear technology.

However, the 1970s saw a shift in attitudes. Environmental activists protested the construction of new power plants, symbolizing a generational rift. The 1979 Three Mile Island incident in the US, followed by the catastrophic Chornobyl disaster in 1986, further eroded public trust in nuclear energy.

The Chornobyl accident, in particular, significantly dampened Germany's nuclear ambitions, according to Smital. Post-Chernobyl, plans for additional nuclear power plants in Germany, once numbering 60, drastically declined.

The emergence of the Green Party in 1980, rooted in anti-nuclear sentiment, and its subsequent rise to political prominence further influenced Germany's energy policy. The Greens, joining forces with the Social Democrats in 1998, initiated a move away from nuclear energy, facing opposition from the Christian Democrats (CDU) and Christian Social Union (CSU).

However, the Fukushima disaster in 2011 prompted a policy reversal from CDU and CSU under Chancellor Angela Merkel, leading to Germany's eventual nuclear phase-out in March 2023, after briefly extending nuclear power amid the energy crisis.

Recently, the CDU and CSU have revised their stance once more, signaling a potential U-turn on the nuclear phaseout, advocating for new nuclear reactors and the reactivation of the last shut-down plants, citing climate protection and rising fossil fuel costs. CDU leader Friedrich Merz has lamented the shutdown as a "black day for Germany." However, these suggestions have garnered little enthusiasm from German energy companies.

Steffi Lemke, the Federal Environment Minister, isn't surprised by the companies' reluctance, noting their longstanding opposition to nuclear power, which she argues would do little to solve the gas issue in Germany, due to its high-risk nature and the long-term challenge of radioactive waste management.

Globally, 412 reactors are operational across 32 countries, even as Europe is losing nuclear power during an energy crunch, with the total number remaining relatively stable over the years. While countries like China, France, and the UK plan new constructions, there's a growing interest in small, modern reactors, which Smital of Greenpeace views with skepticism, noting their potential military applications.

In Germany, the unresolved issue of nuclear waste storage looms large. With temporary storage facilities near power plants proving inadequate for long-term needs, the search for permanent sites faces resistance from local communities and poses financial and logistical challenges.

Environment Minister Lemke underscores the economic impracticality of nuclear energy in Germany, citing prohibitive costs and the necessity of substantial subsidies and insurance exemptions.

As things stand, the resurgence of nuclear power in Germany appears unlikely, with economic factors playing a decisive role in its future.

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Proton Conducting Fuel Cells enable reversible hydrogen energy storage, coupling electrolyzers and fuel cells with ceramic catalysts and proton-conducting membranes to convert wind and solar electricity into fuel and back to reliable grid power.

Key Points

Proton conducting fuel cells store renewable power as hydrogen and generate electricity using reversible catalysts.

✅ Reversible electrolysis and fuel-cell operation in one device

✅ Ceramic air electrodes hit up to 98% splitting efficiency

✅ Scalable path to low-cost grid energy storage with hydrogen

If we want a shot at transitioning to renewable energy, we’ll need one crucial thing: technologies that can convert electricity from wind, sun, and even electricity from raindrops into a chemical fuel for storage and vice versa. Commercial devices that do this exist, but most are costly and perform only half of the equation. Now, researchers have created lab-scale gadgets that do both jobs. If larger versions work as well, they would help make it possible—or at least more affordable—to run the world on renewables.

The market for such technologies has grown along with renewables: In 2007, solar and wind provided just 0.8% of all power in the United States; in 2017, that number was 8%, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. But the demand for electricity often doesn’t match the supply from solar and wind, a key reason why the U.S. grid isn't 100% renewable today. In sunny California, for example, solar panels regularly produce more power than needed in the middle of the day, but none at night, after most workers and students return home.

Some utilities are beginning to install massive banks of cheaper solar batteries in hopes of storing excess energy and evening out the balance sheet. But batteries are costly and store only enough energy to back up the grid for a few hours at most. Another option is to store the energy by converting it into hydrogen fuel. Devices called electrolyzers do this by using electricity—ideally from solar and wind power—to split water into oxygen and hydrogen gas, a carbon-free fuel. A second set of devices called fuel cells can then convert that hydrogen back to electricity to power cars, trucks, and buses, or to feed it to the grid.

But commercial electrolyzers and fuel cells use different catalysts to speed up the two reactions, meaning a single device can’t do both jobs. To get around this, researchers have been experimenting with a newer type of fuel cell, called a proton conducting fuel cell (PCFC), which can make fuel or convert it back into electricity using just one set of catalysts.

PCFCs consist of two electrodes separated by a membrane that allows protons across. At the first electrode, known as the air electrode, steam and electricity are fed into a ceramic catalyst, which splits the steam’s water molecules into positively charged hydrogen ions (protons), electrons, and oxygen molecules. The electrons travel through an external wire to the second electrode—the fuel electrode—where they meet up with the protons that crossed through the membrane. There, a nickel-based catalyst stitches them together to make hydrogen gas (H2). In previous PCFCs, the nickel catalysts performed well, but the ceramic catalysts were inefficient, using less than 70% of the electricity to split the water molecules. Much of the energy was lost as heat.

Now, two research teams have made key strides in improving this efficiency, and a new fuel cell concept brings biological design ideas into the mix. They both focused on making improvements to the air electrode, because the nickel-based fuel electrode did a good enough job. In January, researchers led by chemist Sossina Haile at Northwestern University in Evanston, Illinois, reported in Energy & Environmental Science that they came up with a fuel electrode made from a ceramic alloy containing six elements that harnessed 76% of its electricity to split water molecules. And in today’s issue of Nature Energy, Ryan O’Hayre, a chemist at the Colorado School of Mines in Golden, reports that his team has done one better. Their ceramic alloy electrode, made up of five elements, harnesses as much as 98% of the energy it’s fed to split water.

When both teams run their setups in reverse, the fuel electrode splits H2 molecules into protons and electrons. The electrons travel through an external wire to the air electrode—providing electricity to power devices. When they reach the electrode, they combine with oxygen from the air and protons that crossed back over the membrane to produce water.

The O’Hayre group’s latest work is “impressive,” Haile says. “The electricity you are putting in is making H2 and not heating up your system. They did a really good job with that.” Still, she cautions, both her new device and the one from the O’Hayre lab are small laboratory demonstrations. For the technology to have a societal impact, researchers will need to scale up the button-size devices, a process that typically reduces performance. If engineers can make that happen, the cost of storing renewable energy could drop precipitously, thereby moving us closer to cheap abundant electricity at scale, helping utilities do away with their dependence on fossil fuels.

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UK Electricity Interconnectors secure capacity market subsidies, supporting winter reliability with seabed cables to France and Belgium via the Channel Tunnel, lowering consumer costs, squeezing coal, and challenging new gas plants through cross-border energy trading.

Key Points

High-voltage cables linking Britain to Europe, securing backup capacity, cutting costs and boosting winter reliability.

✅ Won capacity market contracts at record-low prices

✅ Cables to France and Belgium via Channel Tunnel, seabed routes

✅ Squeezes coal, challenges new gas; renewables may join market

New electricity cables across the Channel to France and Belgium will be a key part of keeping Britain’s lights on during winter amid record electricity prices across Europe in the early 2020s, after their owners won backup power subsidies in a government auction this week.

For the first time, interconnector operators successfully bid for a slice of hundreds of millions’ worth of contracts in the capacity market. That will help cut costs for consumers, given how electricity is priced in Europe today, and squeeze out old coal power plants.

Three new interconnectors are currently being built to Europe, almost doubling existing capacity, with one along the Channel Tunnel and two on the seabed: one between Kent and Zeebrugge and one from Hampshire to Normandy. 

The interconnectors were success stories in this week’s capacity auction, which saw power firms bid to provide backup electricity in the winter of 2021/22. Prices for the four-year contracts hit a record low of £8.40 per kilowatt per year, which analysts described as a shock and well below expectations.

One industry source said the figure was “miles away” from what is needed to encourage companies to build big new gas power stations, which some argue are necessary to fill the gap when the UK’s ageing nuclear reactors close as Europe loses nuclear power across the region over the next decade.

While bad news for those firms, the low price is good for consumers. The subsidies will add about £525m to energy bills, or £5.68 for the average household, compared with £11 for the year before, according to analysts Cornwall Insight.

Existing gas power stations scooped up most of the contracts, but new gas ones lost out, as did several coal plants. Battery storage plants, a standout success in the last auction, fared comparatively poorly after changes to the rules.

Experts at Bernstein bank said the the misses by coal meant that around half the UK’s remaining coal power capacity could close from October 2019, when existing capacity market contracts run out. Chaitanya Kumar, policy adviser at thinktank Green Alliance, said: “Coal’s exit from the UK’s energy system just moved a step closer as coal contracts fell by half compared with last year.”

Tom Edwards, an analyst at Cornwall Insight, said that more interconnectors were likely to bid into future rounds of the capacity market, such as the cable being laid between Norway and the UK. Relying on foreign power supplies was fine, he said, provided Brexit did not make energy trading more difficult and the interconnectors delivered at times of need, where events like Irish grid price spikes illustrate the stress points.

However, one industry source, who wants to see new gas plants built in the UK, said the results showed that the system was not working, amid UK peak power prices that have climbed in recent trading. “That self-sufficiency doesn’t seem to be a priority at a time when we’re breaking away from Europe is a bit weird,” they said.

But the prospects for new gas plants in future rounds of the capacity market look bleak. They will very likely face a new source of competition next year, if energy regulator Ofgem approves a proposal to allow renewables to compete too.

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Amur-Heihe ETL Power Supply Tripling will expand Russia-China electricity exports, extending 750 MW DC full-load hours to stabilize northeast China grids amid coal shortages, peak demand spikes, and cross-border energy security concerns.

Key Points

Russia will triple electricity via Amur-Heihe ETL, boosting 750 MW DC operations to relieve shortages in northeast China.

✅ 500 kV converter station increases full-load hours from 5 to 16

✅ Supports Heilongjiang, Liaoning, and Jilin grids amid coal shortfall

✅ Cross-border 750 MW DC link enhances reliability, peak demand coverage

Russia will triple electricity supplies via the Amur-Heihe electric transmission line (ETL) starting October 1, China Central Television has reported, a move seen within broader shifts in China's electricity sector by observers.

"Starting October 1, the overhead convertor substation of 500 kW (750 MW DC) will increase its daily time of operation with full loading from 5 to 16 hours per day," the TV channel said.

"This measure will make it possible to dramatically ease the situation with the electricity supply," the report said. Electricity from this converting station is used in three northeastern provinces of China - Heilongjiang, Liaoning and Jilin, while regional markets are strained as India rations coal supplies amid surging demand today. In 29 years, Russia supplied over 30 bln kilowatt hours of electricity, according to the channel.

The Amur-Heihe overhead transnational power line was constructed for increasing electricity exports to China, where projections see electricity to meet 60% of energy use by 2060 according to Shell. It was commissioned in 2012. Its maximum capacity is 750 MW.

China’s Jiemian News reported on September 27 that, amid nationwide power cuts affecting grids, 20 regions were limited in electricity supplies to a various extent due to the ongoing coal deficit. In particular, in China’s northeastern provinces, restrictions on power consumption were imposed not only on industrial enterprises, but also on households, as well as on office premises, raising concerns for U.S. solar supply chains among downstream manufacturers.

Later, China’s financial media Zhongxin Jingwei noted that the coal deficit had been triggered by price hikes brought on by tightened national environmental standards and efforts to reduce coal power production across the country. Reduced coal imports amid disruptions in the work of foreign suppliers due to the coronavirus pandemic was an additional reason, and earlier power demand drops as factories shuttered compounded imbalances.
 

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PG&E COVID-19 Shutoff Moratorium suspends service disconnections, offers flexible payment plans, and expands customer support with safety protocols, social distancing, and public health guidance for residential and commercial utility customers during the pandemic.

Key Points

A temporary halt to utility shutoffs with flexible payment plans to support PG&E customers during COVID-19.

✅ Suspends shutoffs for residential and commercial accounts

✅ Offers most flexible payment plans upon COVID-19 hardship

✅ Enhances safety: social distancing, PPE, remote work protocols

Pacific Gas and Electric Company has announced that due to the COVID-19 pandemic, it has voluntarily implemented a moratorium on service disconnections for non-payment, effective immediately. This suspension, similar to policies in New Jersey and New York, will apply to both residential and commercial customers and will remain in effect until further notice. To further support customers who may be impacted by the pandemic, PG&E will offer its most flexible pay plans to customers who indicate either an impact or hardship as a result of COVID-19. PG&E will continue to monitor current events and identify opportunities to support our customers and communities through concrete actions.

In addition to the moratorium on service shut-offs, PG&E’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic is focused on efforts to protect the health and safety of its customers, employees, contractors and the communities it serves, including ongoing wildfire risk reduction efforts that continue alongside its pandemic response. Actions the company has taken include providing guidance for employees who have direct customer contact to take social distancing precautionary measures, such as avoiding handshakes and wearing disposable nitrile gloves while in customers' homes, and continuing safety work related to power line-related fires across its service area.

Customers who visit local offices to pay bills and are sick or experiencing symptoms are being asked to use other payment options such as online or by phone, as seen when Texas utilities waived fees during the pandemic, at 1-877-704-8470.

“We recognize that this is a rapidly changing situation and an uncertain time for many of our customers. Our most important responsibility is the health and safety of our customers and employees. We also want to provide some relief from the stress and financial challenges many are facing during this worldwide, public health crisis, and with rates set to stabilize in 2025 the company remains focused on affordability. We understand that many of our customers may experience a personal financial strain due to the slowdown in the economy related to the pandemic, and programs like the Wildfire Assistance Program can help eligible customers,” said Chief Customer Officer and Senior Vice President Laurie Giammona.

Internally, the company is taking advanced cleaning measures, communicating best practices frequently with employees, and is asking its leaders to let employees work remotely if their job allows, while avoiding critical business disruption. PG&E has activated an enterprise-wide incident response team and is vigilantly monitoring the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and World Health Organization for updates related to the virus. The company is committed to continue addressing customer service needs and does not expect any disruption in gas or electric service due to the public health crisis.

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ERCOT Winter Capacity RFP seeks up to 3,000 MW through generation and demand response to bolster Texas grid reliability during peak load, leveraging Reliability Must-Run, incentive factors, and EEA risk mitigation for the 2023-24 season.

Key Points

An ERCOT initiative to procure 3,000 MW of generation and demand response to reduce EEA risk and improve reliability.

✅ Targets 3,000 MW from generation and demand response

✅ Uses RMR-style contracts with flexible incentive factors

✅ Aims to lower EEA probability below 10% this winter

The Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) issued a request for proposals to stakeholders to procure up to 3,000 MW of generation or demand response capacity to meet load and reserve requirements during the winter 2023-24 peak load season (Dec. 1, 2023, through Feb. 29, 2024), amid ongoing Texas power grid challenges across the region.

ERCOT cited “several factors, including significant peak load growth since last winter, recent and proposed retirements of dispatchable Generation Resources, and recent extreme winter weather events, including Winter Storm Elliott in December 2022, Winter Storm Uri in February 2021, and the 2018 and 2011 winter storms, each of which resulted in abnormally high demand during winter weather.” It now seeks additional capacity under its “authority to prevent an anticipated Emergency Condition,” reflecting nationwide blackout risks identified by grid experts.

In its notice regarding the RFP, ERCOT identified a number of mothballed and recently decommissioned generation resources that may be eligible to offer capacity under the RFP. It further stated that offers must comport with the format of its “Reliability Must-Run” agreement but could include a proposed “Incentive Factor” that reflects the revenues the unit owners determine would be necessary to bring the unit back to operation. It added that the Incentive Factor is not necessarily limited to 10%. Providers of eligible demand response can submit offers based on similar principles that are not necessarily constrained by cost. The notice identifies potential acceptable sources of demand response, describes certain parameters for the kinds of demand response that are permitted to respond to the RFP, and outlines the time periods during which ERCOT must be able to deploy the demand response resources to improve electricity reliability across the system.

To meet the Dec. 1, 2023, service start date, ERCOT developed an aggressive timeline to solicit and evaluate proposals through the RFP. Responses to the RFP are due Nov. 6, 2023. ERCOT’s schedule provides that it will notify market participants that obtain awards on Nov. 23, 2023. Expect contracts to be executed by Nov. 30, 2023.

Unlike Regional Transmission Organizations in the Northeastern United States, ERCOT does not have a capacity market. Instead, ERCOT relies on a high price cap of $5,000 per MWh for its energy market (decreased from the $9,000 per MWh cap in effect during Winter Storm Uri) and an Operating Reserve Demand Curve adder that pays additional funds to generators supplying power and ancillary services, an area recently scrutinized for improper payments when supply conditions are tight. In the wake of Winter Storm Uri, some calls were made to have ERCOT adopt a capacity market for reliability reasons, and a number of legal battles continue to play out in the wake of Winter Storm Uri. (See recent McGuireWoods legal alert “Winter Storm Uri Power Dispute Reaches the Supreme Court of Texas.”) Though a capacity market was not adopted, the Texas Legislature approved a $7.2 billion loan program, widely described as an electricity market bailout for generators, to build up to 10,000 MW of dispatchable generation. The legislature also approved a version of the Public Utility Commission of Texas’ proposal to establish a “Performance Credit Mechanism,” but with a cost cap of $1 billion.

The loss of life and economic impacts of Winter Storm Uri in 2021, along with the energy crunches and calls for conservation this past summer, are driving changes to ERCOT’s “energy-only” market, including electricity market reforms under consideration. Texas policymakers are providing multiple financial incentives to promote investment in dispatchable on-demand generation, and voters will consider funding to modernize generation measures this year to make the Texas grid more reliable and able to deal with power demand from a growing economy and increased demand for electricity driven by weather. In the meantime, ERCOT’s plan to procure 3,000 MW through this RFP process is a stopgap measure intended to bolster reliability for the upcoming winter season and lower the probability of load shed in the event of severe winter weather.

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