Museum features Kansas town that went green

By Associated Press


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Tiny Greensburg, Kan., rebuilding from scratch after nearly being wiped away by a tornado last year, is quickly becoming a model for going green.

Along with Masdar City, a planned car-free community outside Abu Dhabi in the United Arab Emirates, and other developments, the rural Kansas town offers vivid examples of sustainable living in "Green Community," a new exhibit at the National Building Museum. The exhibit opened Thursday and will run for a year.

"They are really making a wonderful opportunity out of an absolute tragedy," curator and architect Susan Piedmont-Palladino said of Greensburg. "Masdar and Greensburg do make a really good pair because they're both looking at the whole package of green technologies — from very old ways of doing things to high-tech ways."

Where windmills once dotted the Kansas landscape, Greensburg plans to embrace them again to harvest enough wind energy to power the town of about 700, which had twice as many residents before the tornado.

Greensburg gets only 22 inches of rain a year, so street runoff and rainwater that hits buildings will be collected and used to irrigate plants, part of a master plan that "treats each drop of water as a precious resource," said Stephen Hardy, a city planner with the architectural firm BNIM, which is helping with the effort.

And the town has resolved to build public buildings — from city hall to the hospital and school — that meet the most stringent standards for efficient design. Even the John Deere dealership is pursuing certification from the U.S. Green Building Council and plans to sell wind turbines for homes and businesses.

"Any time you're trying to rebuild a town, there are huge economic hurdles," Hardy said. "The fundamental shift in their thinking is they don't want to build a building they'll be paying for for 20 years. They want a building that will be paying them back."

The Building Museum exhibit breaks some traditional rules by using no precious artifacts and few physical objects to tell the story of green communities. It doesn't feature pieces from a tornado-damaged home, for example.

Instead, it uses satellite photos, community snapshots, short documentaries and interactive displays on the myriad ways people can make their hometowns greener.

The center of the space is like walking through a huge bar graph. Giant, transparent columns are filled with shredded tires or plastic bottles — materials otherwise headed to the dump. Marked on the columns are raw statistics on recycling or mass-transit use among various cities.

The numbers show Houston has the lowest recycling rate, with just 2.6 percent of the city's trash being salvaged, while San Francisco, which has an organic composting program for food scraps, topped the chart at 70 percent.

"None of these issues are brand new," Piedmont-Palladino said. "Ever since the Roman senate passed a law requiring water to be stored for dry periods, it sort of reminds us that ... it's been the key to successful living forever. We have just forgotten."

More than a dozen communities are noted in the exhibit, and they offer a mosaic of green initiatives worldwide, Piedmont-Palladino said.

"There's no single way to go green," she said.

Atlanta, for example, is featured for its redevelopment of an old steel mill site in the walkable Atlantic Station development.

This is the Building Museum's third in a series of green-themed exhibits, which have drawn record numbers of visitors despite the museum's not being on the usual Washington tourism route. The last exhibit, "The Green House," drew more than 130,000, including first lady Laura Bush, museum spokeswoman Jasmine Zick said.

Having small towns and big cities embrace environmentally friendly architecture and technologies will help change people's minds about how realistic environmental building can be, Piedmont-Palladino said.

In Greensburg, the vision to go green has helped maintain an optimism that the town can indeed rebound from all it has lost.

"Ninety percent of the town was just gone overnight, and yet the social fabric was intact even without the buildings," Hardy said. "That has driven them in a way that's unlike any community I've worked with."

Related News

Utilities see benefits in energy storage, even without mandates

Utility Battery Storage Rankings measure grid-connected capacity, not ownership, highlighting MW, MWh, and watts per customer across PJM, MISO, and California IOUs, featuring Duke Energy, IPL, ancillary services, and frequency regulation benefits.

 

Key Points

Rankings that track energy storage connected to utility grids, comparing MW, MWh, and W/customer rather than ownership.

✅ Ranks by MW, MWh, and watts per customer, not asset ownership

✅ Highlights PJM, MISO cases and California IOUs' deployments

✅ Examples: Duke Energy, IPL, IID; ancillary services, frequency response

 

The rankings do not tally how much energy storage a utility built or owns, but how much was connected to their system. So while IPL built and owns the storage facility in its territory, Duke does not own the 16 MW of storage that connected to its system in 2016. Similarly, while California’s utilities are permitted to own some energy storage assets, they do not necessarily own all the storage facilities connected to their systems.

Measured by energy (MWh), IPL ranked fourth with 20 MWh, and Duke Energy Ohio ranked eighth with 6.1 MWh.

Ranked by energy storage watts per customer, IPL and Duke actually beat the California utilities, ranking fifth and sixth with 42 W/customer and 23 W/customer, respectively.

Duke ready for next step

Given Duke’s plans, including projects in Florida that are moving ahead, the utility is likely to stay high in the rankings and be more of a driving force in development. “Battery technology has matured, and we are ready to take the next step,” Duke spokesman Randy Wheeless told Utility Dive. “We can go to regulators and say this makes economic sense.”

Duke began exploring energy storage in 2012, and until now most of its energy storage efforts were focused on commercial projects in competitive markets where it was possible to earn revenues. Those included its 36 MW Notrees battery storage project developed in partnership with the Department of Energy in 2012 that provides frequency regulation for the Electric Reliability Council of Texas market and two 2 MW storage projects at its retired W.C. Beckjord plant in New Richmond, Ohio, that sells ancillary services into the PJM Interconnection market.

On the regulated side, most of Duke’s storage projects have had “an R&D slant to them,” Wheeless said, but “we are moving beyond the R&D concept in our regulated territory and are looking at storage more as a regulated asset.”

“We have done the demos, and they have proved out,” Wheeless said. Storage may not be ready for prime time everywhere, he said, but in certain locations, especially where it can it can be used to do more than one thing, it can make sense.

Wheeless said Duke would be making “a number of energy storage announcements in the next few months in our regulated states.” He could not provide details on those projects.

More flexible resources
Location can be a determining factor when building a storage facility. For IPL, serving the wholesale market was a driving factor in the rationale to build its 20 MW, 20 MWh storage facility in Indianapolis.

IPL built the project to address a need for more flexible resources in light of “recent changes in our resource mix,” including decreasing coal-fired generation and increasing renewables and natural gas-fired generation, as other regions plan to rely on battery storage to meet rising demand, Joan Soller, IPL’s director of resource planning, told Utility Dive in an email. The storage facility is used to provide primary frequency response necessary for grid stability.

The Harding Street storage facility in May. It was the first energy storage project in the Midcontinent ISO. But the regulatory path in MISO is not as clear as it is in PJM, whereas initiatives such as Ontario storage framework are clarifying participation. In November, IPL with the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, asking the regulator to find that MISO’s rules for energy storage are deficient and should be revised.

Soller said IPL has “no imminent plans to install energy storage in the future but will continue to monitor battery costs and capabilities as potential resources in future Integrated Resource Plans.”

California legislative and regulatory push

In California, energy storage did not have to wait for regulations to catch up with technology. With legislative and regulatory mandates, including CEC long-duration storage funding announced recently, as a push, California’s IOUs took high places in SEPA’s rankings.

Southern California Edison and San Diego Gas & Electric were first and fourth (63.2 MW and 17.2 MW), respectively, in terms of capacity. SoCal Ed and SDG&E were first and second (104 MWh and 28.4 MWh), respectively, and Pacific Gas and Electric was fifth (17 MWh) in terms of energy.

But a public power utility, the Imperial Irrigation District (IID), ended up high in the rankings – second in capacity (30 MW) and third  in energy (20 MWh) – even though as a public power entity it is not subject to the state’s energy storage mandates.

But while IID was not under state mandate, it had a compelling regulatory reason to build the storage project. It was part of a settlement reached with FERC over a September 2011 outage, IID spokeswoman Marion Champion said.

IID agreed to a $12 million fine as part of the settlement, of which $9 million was applied to physical improvements of IID’s system.

IID ended up building a 30 MW, 20 MWh lithium-ion battery storage system at its El Centro generating station. The system went into service in October 2016 and in May, IID used the system’s 44 MW combined-cycle natural gas turbine at the generating station.

Passing savings to customers
The cost of the storage system was about $31 million, and based on its experience with the El Centro project, Champion said IID plans to add to the existing batteries. “We are continuing to see real savings and are passing those savings on to our customers,” she said.

Champion said the battery system gives IID the ability to provide ancillary services without having to run its larger generation units, such as El Centro Unit 4, at its minimum output. With gas prices at $3.59 per million British thermal units, it costs about $26,880 a day to run Unit 4, she said.

IID’s territory is in southeastern California, an area with a lot of renewable resources. IID is also not part of the California ISO and acts as its own balancing authority. The battery system gives the utility greater operational flexibility, in addition to the ability to use more of the surrounding renewable resources, Champion said.

In May, IID’s board gave the utility’s staff approval to enter into contract negotiations for a 7 MW, 4 MWh expansion of its El Centro storage facility. The negotiations are ongoing, but approval could come in the next couple months, Champion said.

The heart of the issue, though, is “the ability of the battery system to lower costs for our ratepayers,” Champion said. “Our planning section will continue to utilize the battery, and we are looking forward to its expansion,” she said.” I expect it will play an even more important role as we continue to increase our percentage of renewables.”

 

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Switch from fossil fuels to electricity could cost $1.4 trillion, Canadian Gas Association warns

Canada Electrification Costs: report estimates $580B-$1.4T to scale renewable energy, wind, solar, and storage capacity to 2050, shifting from natural gas toward net-zero emissions and raising average household energy spending by $1,300-$3,200 annually.

 

Key Points

Projected national expense to expand renewables and electrify energy systems by 2050, impacting household energy bills.

✅ $580B-$1.4T forecast for 2020-2050 energy transition

✅ 278-422 GW wind, solar, storage capacity by 2050

✅ Household costs up $1,300-$3,200 per year on average

 

The Canadian Gas Association says building renewable electricity capacity to replace just half of Canada's current fossil fuel-generated energy, a shift with significant policy implications for grids across provinces, could increase national costs by as much as $1.4 trillion over the next 30 years.

In a report, it contends, echoing an IEA report on net-zero, that growing electricity's contribution to Canada's energy mix from its current 19 per cent to about 60 per cent, a step critical to meeting climate pledges that policymakers emphasize, will require an expansion from 141 gigawatts today to between 278 and 422 GW of renewable wind, solar and storage capacity by 2050.

It says that will increase national energy costs by between $580 billion and $1.4 trillion between 2020 and 2050, a projection consistent with recent reports of higher electricity prices in Alberta amid policy shifts, translating into an average increase in Canadian household spending of $1,300 to $3,200 per year.

The study, prepared by consulting firm ICF for the association, assumes electrification begins in 2020 and is applied in all feasible applications by 2050, with investments in the electricity system, guided by the implications of decarbonizing the grid for reliability and cost, proceeding as existing natural gas and electric end use equipment reaches normal end of life.

Association CEO Tim Egan says the numbers are "pretty daunting" and support the integration of natural gas with electric, amid Canada's race to net-zero commitments, instead of using an electric-only option as the most cost-efficient way for Canada to reach environmental policy goals.

But Keith Stewart, senior energy strategist with Greenpeace Canada, says scientists are calling for the world to get to net-zero emissions by 2050, and Canada's net-zero by 2050 target underscores that urgency to avoid "catastrophic" levels of warming, so investing in natural gas infrastructure to then shut it down seems a "very expensive option."

 

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Egypt, Eni ink MoU on hydrogen production projects

Egypt-ENI Hydrogen MoU outlines joint feasibility studies for green and blue hydrogen using renewable energy, carbon capture, and CO2 storage, targeting domestic demand, exports, and net-zero goals within Egypt's energy transition.

 

Key Points

A pact to study green and blue hydrogen in Egypt, leveraging renewables, CO2 storage, and export/demand pathways.

✅ Feasibility study for green and blue hydrogen projects

✅ Uses renewables, SMR, carbon capture, and CO2 storage

✅ Targets local demand, exports, and net-zero alignment

 

The Egyptian Electricity Holding Company (EEHC) and the Egyptian Natural Gas Holding Company (EGAS) signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with the Italian energy giant Eni to assess the technical and commercial feasibility of green and blue hydrogen production projects in Egypt, which many see as central to power companies' future strategies worldwide today.

Under the MoU, a study will be conducted to assess joint projects for the production of green hydrogen using electricity generated from renewable energy and supported by regional electricity interconnections where relevant, and blue hydrogen using the storage of CO2 in depleted natural gas fields, according to a statement by the Ministry of Petroleum on Thursday.

The study will also estimate the potential local market consumption of hydrogen and export opportunities, taking cues from Ontario's hydrogen economy proposal to align electricity rates for growth.

This agreement is part of Eni's objective to achieve zero net emissions by 2050 and Egypt's strategy towards diversifying the energy mix and developing hydrogen projects in collaboration with major international companies, taking note of Italy's green hydrogen initiatives in Sicily as a comparable effort.

It signed the deal with Egyptian Natural Gas Holding (EGAS) and Egyptian Electricity Holding Co. (EEHC).

The companies will carry out a joint study on producing renewable energy powered green hydrogen, informed by electrolyzer investments in similar projects, where applicable. They will also work on blue hydrogen. This involves reforming natural gas and capturing the resulting CO2, in this instance in depleted natural gas fields.

The study will also consider domestic hydrogen use and export options, including funding models like the Hydrogen Innovation Fund now in Ontario.

Eni said the MoU was in line with its plans to eliminate net emissions and emissions cancel emission intensity by 2050. The company noted the agreement was in line with Egypt’s plan for the energy transition, in which it pursues hydrogen plans with major international companies, alongside broader clean-tech collaboration such as Tesla cooperation discussions in Dubai, to accelerate progress.

 

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DOE Announces $34 Million to Improve America?s Power Grid

DOE GOPHURRS Grid Undergrounding accelerates ARPA-E innovations to modernize the power grid, boosting reliability, resilience, and security via underground power lines, AI-driven surveying, robotic tunneling, and safer cable splicing for clean energy transmission and distribution.

 

Key Points

A DOE-ARPA-E program funding undergrounding tech to modernize the grid and improve reliability and security.

✅ $34M for 12 ARPA-E projects across 11 states

✅ Underground power lines to boost reliability and resilience

✅ Robotics, AI, and safer splicing to cut costs and risks

 

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has earmarked $34 million for 12 innovative projects across 11 states to bolster and modernize the nation’s power grid, complementing efforts like a Washington state infrastructure grant announced to strengthen resilience.

Under the Grid Overhaul with Proactive, High-speed Undergrounding for Reliability, Resilience, and Security (GOPHURRS) program, this funding is focused on developing efficient and secure undergrounding technologies. The initiative is aligned with President Biden’s vision to strengthen America's energy infrastructure and advance smarter electricity infrastructure priorities, thereby creating jobs, enhancing energy and national security, and advancing towards a 100% clean electricity grid by 2035.

U.S. Secretary of Energy Jennifer M. Granholm emphasized the criticality of modernizing the power grid to facilitate a future powered by clean energy, including efforts to integrate more solar into the grid nationwide, thus reducing energy costs and bolstering national security. This development, she noted, is pivotal in bringing the grid into the 21st Century.

The U.S. electric power distribution system, comprising over 5.5 million line miles and over 180 million power poles, is increasingly vulnerable to weather-related damage, contributing to a majority of annual power outages. Extreme weather events, intensified by climate change impacts across the nation, exacerbate the frequency and severity of these outages. Undergrounding power lines is an effective measure to enhance system reliability for transmission and distribution grids.

Managed by DOE’s Advanced Research Projects Agency-Energy (ARPA-E), the newly announced projects include contributions from small and large businesses, national labs, and universities. These initiatives are geared towards developing technologies that will lower costs, expedite undergrounding operations, and enhance safety. Notable projects involve innovations like Arizona State University’s water-jet construction tool for deploying electrical cables underground, GE Vernova Advanced Research’s robotic worm tunnelling construction tool, and Melni Technologies’ redesigned medium-voltage power cable splice kits.

Other significant projects include Oceanit’s subsurface sensor system for avoiding utility damage during undergrounding and Pacific Northwest National Laboratory’s AI system for processing geophysical survey data. Prysmian Cables and Systems USA’s project focuses on a hands-free power cable splicing machine to improve network reliability and workforce safety, complementing state efforts like California's $500 million grid investment to upgrade infrastructure.

Complete descriptions of these projects can be found on the ARPA-E website, while a recent grid report card highlights challenges these efforts aim to address.

ARPA-E’s mission is to advance clean energy technologies with high potential and impact, playing a strategic role in America’s energy security, including military preparedness for grid cyberattacks as a priority. This commitment ensures the U.S. remains a global leader in developing and deploying advanced clean energy technologies.

 

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Opinion: Fossil-fuel workers ready to support energy transition

Canada Net-Zero Transition unites energy workers, R&D, and clean tech to decarbonize steel and cement with hydrogen, scale renewables, and build hybrid storage, delivering a just transition that strengthens communities and the economy.

 

Key Points

A national plan to reach net-zero by 2050 via renewables, hydrogen, decarbonization, and a just transition for workers.

✅ Hydrogen for steel and cement decarbonization

✅ Hybrid energy storage and clean tech R&D

✅ Just transition pathways for energy workers

 

Except for an isolated pocket of skeptics, there is now an almost universal acceptance that climate change is a global emergency that demands immediate and far-reaching action to defend our home and future generations. Yet in Canada we remain largely focused on how the crisis divides us rather than on the potential for it to unite us, despite nationwide progress in electricity decarbonization efforts.

It’s not a case of fossil-fuel industry workers versus the rest, or Alberta versus British Columbia where bridging the electricity gap could strengthen cooperation. We are all in this together. The challenge now is how to move forward in a way that leaves no one behind.

The fossil fuel industry has been — and continues to be — a key driver of Canada’s economy. Both of us had successful careers in the energy sector, but realized, along with an increasing number of energy workers, that the transition we need to cope with climate change could not be accomplished solely from within the industry.

Even as resource companies innovate to significantly reduce the carbon burden of each barrel, the total emission of greenhouse gases from all sources continues to rise. We must seize the opportunity to harness this innovative potential in alternative and complementary ways, mobilizing research and development, for example, to power carbon-intensive steelmaking and cement manufacture from hydrogen or to advance hybrid energy storage systems and decarbonizing Canada's electricity grid strategies — the potential for cross-over technology is immense.

The bottom line is inescapable: we must reach net-zero emissions by 2050 in order to prevent runaway global warming, which is why we launched Iron & Earth in 2016. Led by oilsands workers committed to increasingly incorporating renewable energy projects into our work scope, our non-partisan membership now includes a range of industrial trades and professions who share a vision for a sustainable energy future for Canada — one that would ensure the health and equity of workers, our families, communities, the economy, and the environment.

Except for an isolated pocket of skeptics, there is now an almost universal acceptance that climate change is a global emergency that demands immediate and far-reaching action, including cleaning up Canada's electricity to meet climate pledges, to defend our home and future generations. Yet in Canada we remain largely focused on how the crisis divides us rather than on the potential for it to unite us.

It’s not a case of fossil-fuel industry workers versus the rest, or Alberta versus British Columbia. We are all in this together. The challenge now is how to move forward in a way that leaves no one behind.

The fossil fuel industry has been — and continues to be — a key driver of Canada’s economy. Both of us had successful careers in the energy sector, but realized, along with an increasing number of energy workers, that the transition we need to cope with climate change could not be accomplished solely from within the industry.

Even as resource companies innovate to significantly reduce the carbon burden of each barrel, the total emission of greenhouse gases from all sources continues to rise, underscoring that Canada will need more electricity to hit net-zero, according to the IEA. We must seize the opportunity to harness this innovative potential in alternative and complementary ways, mobilizing research and development, for example, to power carbon-intensive steelmaking and cement manufacture from hydrogen or to advance hybrid energy storage systems — the potential for cross-over technology is immense.

The bottom line is inescapable: we must reach net-zero emissions by 2050 in order to prevent runaway global warming, which is why we launched Iron & Earth in 2016. Led by oilsands workers committed to increasingly incorporating renewable energy projects into our work scope, as calls for a fully renewable electricity grid by 2030 gain attention, our non-partisan membership now includes a range of industrial trades and professions who share a vision for a sustainable energy future for Canada — one that would ensure the health and equity of workers, our families, communities, the economy, and the environment.

 

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Most Energy Will Come From Fossil Fuels, Even In 2040

2040 Energy Outlook projects a shifting energy mix as renewables scale, EV adoption accelerates, and IEA forecasts plateauing oil demand alongside rising natural gas, highlighting policy, efficiency, and decarbonization trends that shape global consumption.

 

Key Points

A data-driven view of future energy mix, covering renewables, fossil fuels, EVs, oil demand, and policy impacts.

✅ Renewables reach 16-30% by 2040, higher with strong policy support.

✅ Fossil fuels remain dominant, with oil flat and natural gas rising.

✅ EV share surges, cutting oil use; efficiency curbs demand growth.

 

Which is more plausible: flying taxis, wind turbine arrays stretching miles into the ocean, and a solar roof on every house--or a scorched-earth, flooded post-Apocalyptic world? 

We have no way of peeking into the future, but we can certainly imagine it. There is plenty of information about where the world is headed and regardless of how reliable this information is—or isn’t—we never stop wondering. Will the energy world of 20 years from now be better or worse than the world we live in now? 

The answer may very well lie in the observable trends.


A Growing Population

The global population is growing, and it will continue to grow in the next two decades. This will drive a steady growth in energy demand, at about 1 percent per year, according to the International Energy Agency.

This modest rate of growth is good news for all who are concerned about the future of the planet. Parts of the world are trying to reduce their energy consumption, and this should have a positive effect on the carbon footprint of humanity. The energy thirst of most parts of the world will continue growing, however, hence the overall growth.

The world’s population is currently growing at a rate of a little over 1 percent annually. This rate of growth has been slowing since its peak in the 1960s and forecasts suggest that it will continue to slow. Growth in energy demand, on the other hand, may at some point stop moving in tune with population growth trends as affluence in some parts of the world grows. The richer people get, the more energy they need. So, to the big question: where will this energy come from?


The Rise of Renewables

For all the headline space they have been claiming, it may come as a disappointing surprise to many that renewable energy, excluding hydropower, to date accounts for just 14 percent of the global primary energy mix. 

Certainly, adoption of solar and wind energy has been growing in leaps and bounds, with their global share doubling in five years in many markets, but unless governments around the world commit a lot more money and effort to renewable energy, by 2040, solar and wind’s share in the energy mix will still only rise to about 16 to 17 percent. That’s according to the only comprehensive report on the future of energy that collates data from all the leading energy authorities in the world, by non-profit Resources for the Future.

The growth in renewables adoption, however, would be a lot more impressive if governments do make serious commitments. Under that scenario, the share of renewables will double to over 30 percent by 2040, echoing milestones like over 30% of global electricity reached recently: that’s the median rate of all authoritative forecasts. Amongst them, the adoption rates of renewables vary between 15 percent and 61 percent by 2040.

Even the most bullish of the forecasts on renewables is still far below the 100-percent renewable future many would like to fantasize about, although BNEF’s 50% by 2050 outlook points to what could be possible in the power sector. 

But in 2040, most of the world’s energy will still come from fossil fuels.


EV Energy

Here, forecasters are more optimistic. Again, there is a wide variation between forecasts, but in each and every one of them the share of electric vehicles on the world’s roads in 2040 is a lot higher than the meagre 1 percent of the global car fleet EVs constitute today.
Related: Gas Prices Languish As Storage Falls To Near-Record Lows

Government policy will be the key, as U.S. progress toward 30% wind and solar shows how policy steers the power mix that EVs ultimately depend on. Bans of internal combustion engines will go a long way toward boosting EV adoption, which is why some forecasters expect electric cars to come to account for more than 50 percent of cars on the road in 2040. Others, however, are more guarded in their forecasts, seeing their share of the global fleet at between 16 percent and a little over 40 percent.

Many pin their hopes for a less emission-intensive future on electric cars. Indeed, as the number of EVs rises, they displace ICE vehicles and, respectively, the emission-causing oil that fuels for ICE cars are made from.  It should be a no brainer that the more EVs we drive, the less emissions we produce. Unfortunately, this is not necessarily the case: China is the world’s biggest EV market, and its solar PV expansion has been rapid, it has the most EVs—including passenger cars and buses—but it is also one of the biggest emitters.

Still, by 2040, if the more optimistic forecasts come true, the world will be consuming less oil than it is consuming now: anywhere from 1.2 million bpd to 20 million bpd less, the latter case envisaging an all-electric global fleet in 2040. 


This Ain’t Your Daddy’s Oil

No, it ain’t. It’s your grandchildren’s oil, for good or for bad. The vision of an oil-free world where renewable power is both abundant and cheap enough to replace all the ways in which crude oil and natural gas are used will in 2040 still be just that--a vision, with practical U.S. grid constraints underscoring the challenges. Even the most optimistic energy scenarios for two decades from now see them as the dominant source of energy, with forecasts ranging between 60 percent and 79 percent. While these extremes are both below the over-80 percent share fossil fuels have in the world’s energy mix, they are well above 50 percent, and in the U.S. renewables are projected to reach about one-fourth of electricity soon, even as fossil fuels remain foundational.

Still, there is good news. Fuel efficiency alone will reduce oil demand significantly by 2040. In fact, according to the IEA, demand will plateau at a little over 100 million bpd by the mid-2030s. Combined with the influx of EVs many expect, the world of 20 years from now may indeed be consuming a lot less oil than the world of today. It will, however, likely consume a lot more natural gas. There is simply no way around fossil fuels, not yet. Unless a miracle of politics happens (complete with a ripple effect that will cost millions of people their jobs) in 2040 we will be as dependent on oil and gas as we are but we will hopefully breathe cleaner air.

By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com

 

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