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Canada 2035 Clean Electricity Target faces a 48.4GW shortfall as renewable capacity lags; accelerating wind, solar PV, grid upgrades, and coherent federal-provincial policy is vital to reach zero-emissions power and strengthen transmission and distribution.

Key Points

Canada's plan to supply nearly 100% of electricity from zero-emitting sources by 2035, requiring renewable buildout.

✅ Average adds 2.6GW; shortfall totals 48.4GW by 2035

✅ Expand wind, solar PV, storage, and grid modernization

✅ Align federal-province policy; retire or convert thermal plants

GlobalData’s latest report, ‘Canada Power Market Size and Trends by Installed Capacity, Generation, Transmission, Distribution and Technology, Regulations, Key Players and Forecast, 2022-2035’, discusses the power market structure of Canada and, amid looming power challenges, provides historical and forecast numbers for capacity, generation and consumption up to 2035. Detailed analysis of the country’s power market regulatory structure, competitive landscape and a list of major power plants are provided. The report also gives a snapshot of the power sector in the country on broad parameters of macroeconomics, supply security, generation infrastructure, transmission and distribution infrastructure, electricity import and export scenario, degree of competition, regulatory scenario, and future potential. An analysis of the deals in the country’s power sector is also included in the report.

Canada is expected to fall short of its 2035 clean electricity target after reviewing the country’s current renewable capacity activity. The country has targeted to produce nearly 100% of its electricity from zero-emitting sources by 2035, while electricity associations' net-zero goals extend to 2050; however, the country is adding only 2.6GW of annual renewable capacity additions on average every year, which would mean a cumulative shortfall of 48.4GW.

Canada has good governmental support, but it is not doing enough to ensure its targets are met. If the country is to meet its target to produce nearly 100% of electricity from zero-emitting sources by 2035, the country should both increase the capacity and efficiency of renewable power plants, as well as provide comprehensive end-to-end policies at both the federal and provincial levels, as debates over whether Ontario is embracing clean power continue across provinces. It should also involve communities and businesses in raising awareness of the benefits of adopting renewable energy.

The country has a large amount of proven natural gas and oil reserves that are proving too tempting an opportunity, and the Canadian Government is planning to increase the capacity of its gas-based plants under net-zero regulations permit some gas in the power mix, to secure real-time demand and supply. However, the country’s dependency on gas-based plants creates a major challenge to achieve its 2035 clean electricity target.

If the Canadian Government is to meet its 2035 targets, it should draw on examples from its European counterparts and add renewable capacity at a rapid pace, while balancing demand and emissions in key provinces. One advantage for Canada here is that it does not have land constraints, which is common in other major renewable power-generating countries. This could give the country an estimated 6.1GW of renewable capacity every year on average during the 2021-2035 period: enough capacity to meet its target. Most of these installations are expected to be for wind and solar PV.

Changing provincial governments are not helpful when it comes to implementing long-term projects, especially as Ontario faces looming electricity shortfalls that heighten planning risks, and continued stopping and starting of projects like this will only be damaging to renewable goals. Another way the country can achieve its target is by converting thermal power plants into clean energy plants and providing a roadmap or timeline for provinces to retire thermal power plants completely, even as scrapping coal can be costly for some systems.

Canada’s GDP (at constant prices) increased from $1,617.3bn in 2010 to $1,924.5bn in 2021, at a CAGR of 1.6%. The GDP (at constant prices) of the country declined sharply from $1,943.8bn in 2019 to $1,840.5bn in 2020 because of Covid-19 pandemic. After the recommencement of regular industrial and trade activities, the GDP grew by 4.6% in 2021 from 2020. The GDP is expected to cross pre-pandemic levels by the end of 2022.

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Australia electricity grid transition is accelerating as renewables, wind, solar, and storage drive decentralised generation, emissions cuts, and NEM trade shifts, with South Australia becoming a net exporter post-Hazelwood closure and rooftop solar surging.

Key Points

Australia electricity shift to renewables, distributed generation and storage, cutting emissions, reshaping NEM flows.

✅ South Australia now exports power post-Hazelwood closure

✅ Rooftop solar is the fastest-growing NEM generation source

✅ Gas peaking and storage investments balance variable renewables

The politics may not change much, but Australia’s electricity grid is changing before our very eyes – slowly and inevitably becoming more renewable, more decentralised, and in step with Australia's energy transition that is challenging the pre-conceptions of many in the industry.

The latest national emissions audit from The Australia Institute, which includes an update on key electricity trends in the national electricity market, notes some interesting developments over the last three months.

The most surprising of those developments may be the South Australia achievement, which shows that since the closure of the Hazelwood brown coal generator in Victoria in March 2017, and as renewables outpacing brown coal in other markets, South Australia has become a net exporter of electricity, in net annualised terms.

Hugh Saddler, lead author of the study, notes that this is a big change for South Australia, which in 1999 and 2000, when it had only gas and local coal, used to import 30% of its electricity demand.

#google#

The fact that wholesale prices in South Australia were higher in other states – then, as they are now – has nothing to with wind and solar, but the fact that it has no low-cost conventional source and a peaky demand profile (then and now).

“The difference today is that the state is now taking advantage of its abundant resources of wind and solar radiation, and the new technologies which have made them the lowest cost sources of new generation, to supply much of its electricity requirements,” Saddler writes.

Other things to note about the flows between states is that Victoria was about equal on imports and exports with its three neighbouring states, despite the closure of Hazelwood. NSW continues to import around 10% of its needs from cheaper providers in Queensland.

Gas-fired generation had increased in the last year or two in South Australia as a result of the Northern closure, but is still below the levels of a decade ago.

But because it is expensive, this is likely to spur more investment in storage.

As for rooftop solar, Saddler notes that the share of residential solar in the grid is still relatively small but, despite excess solar risks flagged by distributors, it is the most steadily growing generation source in the NEM.

That line is expected to grow steadily. By 2040, or perhaps 2050, the share of distributed generation, which includes rooftop solar, battery storage and demand management, is expected to reach nearly half of all Australia’s grid demand.

Saddler, says, however, that the increase in large-scale solar over the last few months is a significant milestone in Australia’s transition towards clean electricity generation, mirroring trends in India's on-grid solar development seen in recent years. (See very top graph).

“Firstly, they are a concrete demonstration that the construction cost advantage, which wind enjoyed over solar until a year or two ago, is gone.

“From now on we can expect new capacity to be a mix of both technologies. Indeed, the Clean Energy Regulator states that it expects solar to account for half of all (new renewable) capacity by 2020, and the US is moving toward 30% from wind and solar as well.”

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Ontario Peak Perks Program boosts energy efficiency with smart thermostats, demand response, and incentives, reducing peak demand, electricity costs, and emissions while supporting grid reliability and Save on Energy initiatives across Ontario businesses and homes.

Key Points

A demand response initiative offering incentives via smart thermostats to cut peak electricity use and lower costs

✅ $75 sign-up, $20 yearly enrollment incentive

✅ Up to 10 summer temperature events; opt-out anytime

✅ Expanded retrofits, greenhouse support, grid savings

The Ontario government is launching the new Peak Perks program to help families save money by conserving energy, building on bill support during COVID-19 initiatives as part of the government’s $342 million expansion of Ontario’s energy-efficiency programs that will reduce demands on the provincial grid. The government is also launching three new and enhanced programs for businesses, municipalities, and other institutions, including targeted support for greenhouse growers in Southwest Ontario.

“Our government is giving families more ways to lower their energy bills with new energy-efficiency programs like Peak Perks and ultra-low overnight rates available to consumers, which will provide families a $75 financial incentive this year in exchange for lowering their energy use at peak times during the summer,” said Todd Smith, Minister of Energy. “The new programs launched today will also help meet the province’s emerging electricity system needs by providing annual electricity savings equivalent to powering approximately 130,000 homes every year and, alongside electricity cost allocation discussions, reduce costs for consumers by over $650 million by 2025.”

The new Peak Perks program provides a financial incentive for residential customers who are willing to conserve energy and reduce their air conditioning at peak times and have an eligible smart thermostat connected to a central air conditioning system or heat pump unit. Participants will receive $75 for enrolling this year, as well as $20 for each year they stay enrolled in the program starting in 2024.

Residential customers can participate in Peak Perks by enrolling and giving their thermostat manufacturer secure access to their thermostat. Participants will be notified when one of the maximum 10 annual temperature change events occurs directly by their thermostat manufacturer on their mobile app and on their thermostat. Peak Perks has been designed to ensure participants are always in control and customers can opt-out of any temperature change event without impacting their incentive.

The Peak Perks program will be available starting in June. Interested customers can visit SaveOnEnergy.ca/PeakPerks today to sign-up for the program waitlist and receive an email notice with information on how to enroll.

In addition to the financial incentive provided by Peak Perks, reducing electricity use during peak demand hours in the summer months helps customers to lower their monthly electricity bills, and measures such as a temporary off-peak rate freeze have complemented these efforts, as these periods tend to be associated with the highest costs for power. Lowering demand during peak periods also allows the province to reduce electricity sector emissions, by reducing the need for electricity generation facilities that only run at times of peak demand such as natural gas.

Ontario has also launched three new and enhanced programs, including an expanded custom Retrofit program for business, municipalities and other institutions, and industrial electricity rate relief initiatives, targeted support for greenhouse growers in Southwest Ontario, as well enhancements to the existing Local Initiatives Program. The expanded Retrofit program alone will feature over $200 million in dedicated funding to support the new custom energy-efficiency retrofit project stream, that will cover up to 50 percent of the cost of approved projects.

These new and expanded energy-efficiency programs are expected to have a strong impact in Southwest Ontario, with regional peak demand savings of 225 megawatts (MW). This, together with the Ontario-Quebec energy swap agreement, will provide additional capacity for the region and support growing economic development. The overall savings from this energy-efficiency programming will result in an estimated three million tonnes of greenhouse gas emission reductions over its lifetime - the equivalent to taking more than 600,000 vehicles off the road for one year.

“Thanks to energy efficiency efforts over the past 15 years, demand for electricity is today about 12 per cent lower than it otherwise would be,” said Lesley Gallinger, President and CEO, of the Independent Electricity System Operator, Ontario’s grid operator and provider of Save on Energy programs to home and business consumers. “Conservation is a valuable and cost-effective resource that supports system reliability and helps drive economic development as we strive towards compliance with clean electricity regulations for a decarbonized electricity grid.”

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Nithi Mountain Wind Project delivers 200 MW of renewable wind power in British Columbia under a BC Hydro electricity purchase deal, producing 600 GWh yearly, led by Stellat'en First Nation and Innergex.

Key Points

A 200 MW wind farm in British Columbia producing 600 GWh yearly, co-owned by Stellat'en First Nation and Innergex.

✅ 30-year BC Hydro take-or-pay PPA, CPI-indexed

✅ 200 MW capacity, ~600 GWh per year for ~60,000 homes

✅ 51% Stellat'en First Nation; operations targeted for 2030

In December 2024, a significant development unfolded in British Columbia's renewable energy sector, where the clean-energy regulatory process continues to evolve, as Stellat'en First Nation and Innergex Renewable Energy Inc. announced the signing of a 30-year electricity purchase agreement with BC Hydro. This agreement pertains to the Nithi Mountain Wind Project, a 200 MW initiative poised to enhance the province's clean energy capacity.

Project Overview

The Nithi Mountain Wind Project is a collaborative venture between Stellat'en First Nation, which holds a 51% stake, and Innergex Renewable Energy Inc., which holds a 49% stake. Located in the Bulkley-Nechako region of British Columbia, the project is expected to generate approximately 600 GWh of renewable electricity annually, comparable to other large-scale projects like the 280 MW wind farm in Alberta now online, sufficient to power around 60,000 homes. The wind farm is scheduled to commence commercial operations in 2030.

Economic and Community Impact

This partnership is anticipated to create approximately 150 job opportunities during the development, construction, and operational phases, thereby supporting local economic growth and workforce development, and aligns with recent federal green electricity procurement efforts that signal broader market support. The long-term electricity purchase agreement with BC Hydro is structured as a 30-year take-or-pay contract, indexed to a predefined percentage of the Consumer Price Index (CPI), ensuring financial stability and protection against inflation.

Environmental and Cultural Considerations

The Nithi Mountain Wind Project is being developed in close collaboration with First Nations in the area, guided by collaborative land-use planning. The project integrates cultural preservation, environmental stewardship, and economic empowerment for Indigenous communities in the Bulkley-Nechako region, while other solutions such as tidal energy for remote communities are also advancing across Canada. The project is committed to minimizing environmental impact by avoiding sensitive cultural and ecological resources and integrating sustainability at every stage, with remediation practices to restore the land, preserve cultural values, and enhance biodiversity and wildlife habitats if decommissioned.

Broader Implications

This agreement underscores a growing trend of collaboration between Indigenous communities, exemplified by the Ermineskin First Nation project emerging nationwide, and renewable energy developers in Canada. Such partnerships are instrumental in advancing sustainable energy projects that respect Indigenous rights and contribute to the nation's clean energy objectives, as renewable power developers find that diversified energy sources strengthen project outcomes. The Nithi Mountain Wind Project exemplifies how integrating traditional knowledge with modern renewable energy technologies can lead to mutually beneficial outcomes for both Indigenous communities and the broader society.

In summary, the Nithi Mountain Wind Project represents a significant step forward in British Columbia's renewable energy landscape, highlighting the importance of collaboration between Indigenous communities and renewable energy developers. The project promises substantial economic, environmental, and cultural benefits, setting a precedent for future partnerships in the clean energy sector, as large-scale storage acquisitions like Centrica's battery project illustrate complementary pathways to unlock wind potential.

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Ontario Hydro Rate Relief Plan delivers short-term electricity bill cuts, while leaked cabinet forecasts show inflation-linked hikes, borrowing costs, and a Clean Energy Adjustment under the province's long-term energy plan.

Key Points

A provincial plan that cuts bills now but defers costs, projecting rate hikes and adding a Clean Energy Adjustment.

✅ 25% cut now, after 8% HST relief; extra 17% reduction applied.

✅ Forecast: inflation-linked hikes later; borrowing adds long-term costs.

✅ Clean Energy Adjustment line to repay deferred system costs.

The short-term gain of a 25 per cent hydro rate cut this summer could lead to long-term pain as a leaked cabinet document forecasts prices jumping again in five years.

In the briefing materials leaked and obtained by the Progressive Conservatives, rates will start rising 6.5 per cent a year in 2022 and top out at 10.5 per cent in 2028, when average monthly bills hit $215.

That would be up from $123 this year once the rate cut — the subject of long-awaited legislation to lower electricity rates unveiled Thursday by Energy Minister Glenn Thibeault — takes full effect. There will be another 17-per-cent cut in addition to the 8 per cent taken off bills in January when the provincial portion of the HST was waived.

The leaked papers overshadowed Thibeault’s efforts to tout the price break, which will be followed with four years of hydro rate increases at 2 per cent, roughly the rate of inflation.

Thibeault charged that the Conservatives used an “outdated” document to distract from the fact that they are the only major party without a plan for dealing with skyrocketing hydro rates, with a year to go until next June’s provincial election.

“It’s not a coincidence,” he told reporters, denying any plans for an eventual 10.5-per-cent rate hike and promising the government’s new long-term energy plan, due in a few months, will have better numbers.

“We are working hard right now to continue to pull costs out of the system.”

Opposition parties said the Liberal plan doesn’t deal with the underlying problems that have made electricity expensive and simply borrows money to spread the costs over a longer period of time, with $25 billion in interest charges over 30 years.

Some observers also noted that a deal with Quebec would not reduce hydro bills, highlighting concerns about lasting affordability.

“The price of electricity is going to skyrocket after the next election,” warned Conservative MPP Todd Smith (Prince Edward—Hastings).

“The government isn’t being honest with the people of Ontario when it comes to the price of electricity.”

The documents show average monthly bills peaking at $231 in the year 2047, before falling back to $210 the following year once the 30 years of interest payments are over.

Conservative sources say they obtained the papers stamped “confidential cabinet document” from a whistleblower after Thibeault’s rate cut plan was presented to cabinet ministers at a meeting in early March.

There is no date on the document, which the energy minister alternately dismissed as “inaccurate” or possibly one of many that have been prepared with different options in mind.

“We’ve had hundreds of briefings with hundreds of documents … I can’t comment on one graph when we’ve been looking at hundreds of scenarios.”

New Democrats, who have proposed a scheme to cut rates, if elected, also called the government plan an election ploy with Liberals lagging in the polls.

“We’re going to take on a huge debt so (Premier) Kathleen Wynne can look good on the hustings in the next few months, and for decades we’re going to pay for it,” said MPP Peter Tabuns (Toronto-Danforth).

Thibeault acknowledged the Liberal plan will start repaying borrowed money in the mid- or late 2020s and it will show up separately on hydro bills as the “Clean Energy Adjustment”, a kind of electricity recovery rate that could raise costs.

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Peterborough Distribution Inc. Sale to Hydro One delivers a $105 million deal pending Ontario Energy Board approval, a 1% distribution rate cut, five-year rate freeze, job protections, and a new operations centre and fleet facility.

Key Points

A $105M acquisition of PDI by Hydro One, with OEB review, rate freeze, job protections, and a new operations centre.

✅ $105 million purchase; Ontario Energy Board approval required

✅ 1% distribution rate cut and a five-year rate freeze

✅ New operations centre; PDI employees offered roles at Hydro One

The City of Peterborough said Wednesday it has agreed to sell Peterborough Distribution Inc. to Hydro One for $105 million, amid a period when Hydro One shares fell after leadership changes.

The deal requires approval from the Ontario Energy Board before it can proceed.

According to the city, the deal includes a one per cent distribution rate reduction and a five-year freeze in distribution rates for customers, plus:

• A second five-year period with distribution rate increases limited to inflation and an earnings sharing mechanism to offset rates in year 11 and onward
• Protections for PDI employees with employees receiving employment offers to move to Hydro One
• A sale price of $105 million
• An agreement to develop a regional operations centre and new fleet maintenance facility in Peterborough

“Hydro One was unique in its ability to offer new investment and job creation in our community through the addition of a new operations centre to serve customers throughout the broader region,” Mayor Daryl Bennett said.

“We’re surrounded by Hydro One territory — in fact, we already have Hydro One customers within the City of Peterborough and new subdivisions will be in Hydro One territory. Hydro One will be able to create efficiencies by better utilizing its existing infrastructure, benefiting customers and supporting growth.”

The sale comes after months of negotiations amid investor concerns about Hydro One’s uncertainties. At one point, it looked like the sale wouldn’t go through, after it was announced that Hydro One had walked away from the bargaining table.

City council approved the sale of PDI in December 2016, despite a strong public opposition and debate over proposals to make hydro public again among some parties.

Elsewhere in Canada, political decisions around utilities have also sparked debate, as seen when Manitoba Hydro faced controversy over policy shifts.

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