Whose bright idea were CFL bulbs?

By Langley Times


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The proverbial light bulb went on for me a year ago when both my husband and I woke up with splitting headaches after leaving our ensuite bathroom light on all night.

Our headaches were identical, both feeling pain behind our eyes and in our temples.

I don’t usually suffer from headaches and I didn’t end up with a cold of flu to explain the head pain. The only answer we both came up with was the Compact Fluorescent Lights (CFLs) shining from our ensuite must have irritated us. We had felt a feeling of being ‘unwell’ before, while reading at the kitchen table where we had also switched to CFL lighting.

The ‘green’ marketing machine has promoted CFLs like no other energy saving product out there. We bought in and switched most of our lighting in our household under the idea we were helping the environment.

Our headaches and our realization came months before new tests revealed what dirty electricity these bulbs might be giving off. The mercury-based bulbs, that have been pushed on us by government advertising and rebates by BC Hydro as the saviour to Earth as we know it, give off UV radiation.

They may emit up to 200 times the dirty energy, or radiation, of the incandescent bulbs most of us have got rid of, say some scientists.

The rub is the Canadian government wants to eliminate incandescent bulbs by 2012, leaving our workplaces, malls, offices, grocery stores and homes full of CFL lighting. At Trinity Western University, for example, they have changed out almost all of the incandescent light bulbs in the dorms to energy-saving CFLs.

Energy-saving light bulbs are the most common way to go green at home, according to Statistics CanadaÂ’s latest Households and the Environment survey, with 84 per cent of households in 2007 having at least one CFL bulb.

Even David Suzuki promotes CFLs, with a picture of one right on the front page of his website.

I e-mailed my concerns about the harmful radiation coming from CFLs. The Suzuki Foundation replied that it supports the bulbs because they are much more energy efficient, thereby better for Mother Earth.

“New studies have shown that CFLs can be problematic for people with certain skin conditions. This can be easily avoided by not using the bulbs where one would be spending more than an hour a day within 30 cm of the bulb or by using an encapsulated bulb,” writes Ryan Kadowaki, of the David Suzuki Foundation.

“Health Canada is currently testing CFLs to ensure they are not posing any health risks. There are currently no peer-reviewed scientific studies linking CFLs with the medical problems mentioned on the show.”

The show he is referring to is Global TVÂ’s 16 by 9, which had several scientists run tests, showing the bulbs emitting 200 times the dirty electricity compared to incandescents.

Then a memo from BC Hydro to the B.C. Utilities Commission stated that the switch over to CFL bulbs is causing people to turn up the heat in fall and winter.

In the report and speaking to CBC, BC Hydro said CFLs do increase greenhouse gas emmissions because of the loss of heat coming from incandescent light bulbs throughout peopleÂ’s homes.

Then on March 5, BC Hydro posted a ‘fact and myth’ page promoting the use of CFLs.

CFLs do add greenhouse gas emissions because of the loss of heat from incandescent bulbs, the website says. But incandescent light bulbs are so inefficient at producing light, that 95 per cent of the electricity they use goes towards producing heat, said BC Hydro.

Even after this report about loss of heating, the David Suzuki Foundation disputes the claim that incandescents heat homes, saying the heat coming from these bulbs is minimal, given most of our lighting is in the ceiling and heat rises.

The Suzuki Foundation admits that CFLs arenÂ’t the ideal bulb to have in the house, but until LED technology puts out household bulbs and lighting, CFLs are the best interim solution to help the environment, said Nicolas Harp, climate and energy policy director for the David Suzuki Foundation.

When I was doing a story on the hype around banning plastic bags six months ago, I phoned the Recycling Council of B.C. to ask where bags get recycled (turns out at a Burnaby plant). I also wanted to know how many end up in the landfill. The spokesperson said it was CFL bulbs ending up in the landfill that people should be more concerned about — not plastic bags.

The reason?

The amount of mercury ending up in the landfill from CFL bulbs. Oh, and by the way, if one of these CFLs happen to break inside your home, Health Canada advises you to ventilate the room and not inhale the mercury and then wear rubber gloves and not touch the bulbs.

Health Canada also warns that people with lupus, light sensitivity and people prone to headaches may find ill effects from the UV radiation coming from CFLs.

So to recap, according to tests done by some scientists, CFLs emit 200 times the radiation as the old bulbs, cause some people headaches, others with skin conditions, red rashes and possible aches and pains depending on sensitivity levels.

They put more mercury into the environment than any other type of bulb — but the government wants every mall, office and home to be full of CFLs by 2012?

Come to your own conclusions and make your own decisions.

As for me, IÂ’ve switched back to incandescents in hopes LED lights will come out soon.

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Economic Crossroads: Bank Earnings, EV Tariffs, and Algoma Steel

Canada Economic Crossroads highlights bank earnings trends, interest rates, loan delinquencies, EV tariffs on Chinese imports, domestic manufacturing, Algoma Steel decarbonization, sustainability, and housing market risks shaping growth, investment, consumer prices, and climate policy.

 

Key Points

An overview of how bank earnings, EV tariffs, and Algoma Steel's transition shape Canada's economy.

✅ Higher rates lift margins but raise delinquencies and housing risks

✅ EV tariffs aid domestic makers but pressure consumer prices

✅ Algoma invests to decarbonize, boosting efficiency and compliance

 

In a complex economic landscape, recent developments have brought attention to several pivotal issues affecting Canada's business sector. The Globe and Mail’s latest report delves into three major topics: the latest bank earnings, the implications of new tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles (EVs), and Algoma Steel’s strategic maneuvers. These factors collectively paint a picture of the challenges and opportunities facing Canada's economy.

Bank Earnings Reflect Economic Uncertainty

The recent financial reports from major Canadian banks have revealed a mixed picture of the nation’s economic health. As the Globe and Mail reports, earnings results show robust performances in some areas while highlighting growing concerns in others. Banks have generally posted strong quarterly results, buoyed by higher interest rates which have improved their net interest margins. This uptick is largely attributed to the central bank's monetary policies aimed at combating inflation and stabilizing the economy.

However, the positive earnings are tempered by underlying economic uncertainties. Rising loan delinquencies and a slowing housing market are areas of concern. Increased interest rates, while beneficial for banks’ margins, have also led to higher borrowing costs for consumers and businesses. This dynamic has the potential to impact overall economic growth and consumer confidence.

Tariffs on Chinese EVs: A Strategic Shift

Another significant development is the imposition of new tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles. This move is part of a broader strategy to protect domestic automotive industries and address trade imbalances, aligning with public support for tariffs in key sectors. The tariffs are expected to increase the cost of Chinese EVs in Canada, which could have several implications for the market.

On one hand, the tariffs might provide a temporary boost to Canadian and North American manufacturers by reducing competition from lower-priced Chinese imports. This protectionist measure could encourage investments in local production and innovation, mirroring tariff threats boosting support for energy projects in other sectors. However, the increased cost of Chinese EVs may also lead to higher prices for consumers, potentially slowing the adoption of electric vehicles—a critical goal in Canada’s climate strategy.

The tariffs come at a time when the Canadian government is keen on accelerating the transition to electric mobility to meet its environmental targets, even as a critical crunch in electrical supply raises questions about grid readiness. Balancing the protection of domestic industries with the broader goal of reducing emissions will be a significant challenge moving forward.

Algoma Steel’s Strategic Evolution

In the steel industry, Algoma Steel has been making headlines with its strategic initiatives aimed at transforming its operations, in a broader shift toward clean grids and industrial decarbonization. The Globe and Mail highlights Algoma Steel's efforts to modernize its production processes and shift towards more sustainable practices. This includes significant investments in technology and infrastructure to enhance production efficiency and reduce environmental impact.

Algoma's focus on reducing carbon emissions aligns with broader industry trends towards sustainability. The company’s efforts are part of a larger push within the steel sector to address climate change and meet regulatory requirements. As one of Canada’s leading steel producers, Algoma’s actions could set a precedent for the industry, showcasing how traditional manufacturing sectors can adapt to evolving environmental standards.

Implications and Future Outlook

The interplay of these developments reflects a period of significant transition for Canada's economy, shaped in part by U.S. policy where Biden is seen as better for Canada's energy sector by some analysts. For banks, the challenge will be to navigate the balance between profitability and potential risks from a changing economic environment. The new tariffs on Chinese EVs represent a strategic shift with mixed implications for the automotive market, potentially influencing both domestic production and consumer prices. Meanwhile, Algoma Steel’s push towards sustainability could serve as a model for other industries seeking to align with environmental goals.

As these issues unfold, stakeholders across sectors will need to stay informed and adaptable. For policymakers, the challenge will be to support domestic industries while fostering innovation and sustainability, including the dilemma over electricity rates and innovation they must weigh. For businesses, the focus will be on navigating financial pressures and leveraging opportunities for growth. Consumers, in turn, will face the impact of these developments in their daily lives, from the cost of borrowing to the price of electric vehicles.

In summary, Canada’s current economic landscape is characterized by a blend of financial resilience, strategic adjustments, and evolving industry practices, amid policy volatility such as a tariff threat delaying Quebec's green energy bill earlier this year. As the country navigates these crossroads, the outcomes of these developments will play a crucial role in shaping the future economic environment.

 

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Working From Home Will Drive Up Electricity Bills for Consumers

Remote Work Energy Costs are rising as home offices and telecommuting boost electricity bills; utilities, broadband usage, and COVID-19-driven stay-at-home policies affect productivity, consumption patterns, and household budgets across the U.K. and Europe.

 

Key Points

Remote Work Energy Costs are increased household electricity and utility expenses from telecommuting and home office use.

✅ WFH shifts energy load from offices to households.

✅ Higher device, lighting, and heating/cooling usage drives bills.

✅ Broadband access gaps limit remote work equity.

 

Household electricity bills are set to soar, with rising residential electricity use tied to the millions of people now working at home to avoid catching the coronavirus.

Running laptops and other home appliances will cost consumers an extra 52 million pounds ($60 million) each week in the U.K., according to a study from Uswitch, a website that helps consumers compare the energy prices that utilities charge.

For each home-bound household, the pain to the pocketbook may be about 195 pounds per year extra, even as some utilities pursue pandemic cost-cutting to manage financial pressures.

The rise in price for households comes even as overall demand is falling rapidly in Europe, with wide swaths of the economy shut down to keep workers from gathering in one place, and the U.S. grid overseer issuing warnings about potential pandemic impacts on operations.

People stuck at home will plug in computers, lights and appliances when they’d normally be at the office, increasing their consumption.

With the Canadian government declaring a state of emergency due to the coronavirus, companies are enabling work-from-home structures to keep business running and help employees follow social distancing guidelines, and some utilities have even considered housing critical staff on site to maintain operations. However, working remotely has been on the rise for a while.

“The coronavirus is going to be a tipping point. We plodded along at about 10% growth a year for the last 10 years, but I foresee that this is going to really accelerate the trend,” Kate Lister, president of Global Workplace Analytics.

Gallup’s State of the Workplace 2017 study found that 43% of employees work remotely with some frequency. Research indicates that in a five-day workweek, working remotely for two to three days is the most productive. That gives the employee two to three days of meetings, collaboration and interaction, with the opportunity to just focus on the work for the other half of the week.

Remote work seems like a logical precaution for many companies that employ people in the digital economy, even as some federal agencies sparked debate with an EPA telework policy during the pandemic. However, not all Americans have access to the internet at home, and many work in industries that require in-person work.

According to the Pew Research Center, roughly three-quarters of American adults have broadband internet service at home. However, the study found that racial minorities, older adults, rural residents and people with lower levels of education and income are less likely to have broadband service at home. In addition, 1 in 5 American adults access the internet only through their smartphone and do not have traditional broadband access. 

Full-time employees are four times more likely to have remote work options than part-time employees. A typical remote worker is college-educated, at least 45 years old and earns an annual salary of $58,000 while working for a company with more than 100 employees, according to Global Workplace Analytics, and in Canada there is growing interest in electricity-sector careers among younger workers. 

New York, California and other states have enacted strict policies for people to remain at home during the coronavirus pandemic, which could change the future of work, and Canadian provinces such as Saskatchewan have documented how the crisis has reshaped local economies across sectors.

“I don’t think we’ll go back to the same way we used to operate,” Jennifer Christie, chief HR officer at Twitter, told CNBC. “I really don’t.”

 

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Energize America: Invest in a smarter electricity infrastructure

Smart Grid Modernization unites distributed energy resources, energy storage, EV charging, advanced metering, and bidirectional power flows to upgrade transmission and distribution infrastructure for reliability, resilience, cybersecurity, and affordable, clean power.

 

Key Points

Upgrading grid hardware and software to integrate DERs, storage, and EVs for a reliable and affordable power system.

✅ Enables DER, storage, and EV integration with bidirectional flows

✅ Improves reliability, resilience, and grid cybersecurity

✅ Requires early investment in sensors, inverters, and analytics

 

Much has been written, predicted, and debated in recent years about the future of the electricity system. The discussion isn’t simply about fossil fuels versus renewables, as often dominates mainstream energy discourse. Rather, the discussion is focused on something much larger and more fundamental: the very design of how and where electricity should be generated, delivered, and consumed.

Central to this discussion are arguments in support of, or in opposition to, the traditional model versus that of the decentralized or “emerging” model. But this is a false choice. The only choice that needs making is how to best transition to a smarter grid, and do so in a reliable and affordable manner that reflects grid modernization affordability concerns for utilities today. And the most effective and immediate means to accomplish that is to encourage and facilitate early investment in grid-related infrastructure and technology.

The traditional, or centralized, model has evolved since the days of Thomas Edison, but the basic structure is relatively unchanged: generate electrons at a central power plant, transmit them over a unidirectional system of high-voltage transmission lines, and deliver them to consumers through local distribution networks. The decentralized, or emerging, model envisions a system that moves away from the central power station as the primary provider of electricity to a system in which distributed energy resources, energy storage, electric vehicles, peer-to-peer transactions, connected appliances and devices, and sophisticated energy usage, pricing, and load management software play a more prominent role.

Whether it’s a fully decentralized and distributed power system, or the more likely centralized-decentralized hybrid, it is apparent that the way in which electricity is produced, delivered, and consumed will differ from today’s traditional model. And yet, in many ways, the fundamental design and engineering that makes up today’s electric grid will serve as the foundation for achieving a more distributed future. Indeed, as the transition to a smarter grid ramps up, the grid’s basic structure will remain the underlying commonality, allowing the grid to serve as a facilitator to integrate emerging technologies, including EV charging stations, rooftop solar, demand-side management software, and other distributed energy resources, while maximizing their potential benefits and informing discussions about California’s grid reliability under ambitious transition goals.

A loose analogy here is the internet. In its infancy, the internet was used primarily for sending and receiving email, doing homework, and looking up directions. At the time, it was never fully understood that the internet would create a range of services and products that would impact nearly every aspect of everyday life from online shopping, booking travel, and watching television to enabling the sharing economy and the emerging “Internet of Things.”

Uber, Netflix, Amazon, and Nest would not be possible without the internet. But the rapid evolution of the internet did not occur without significant investment in internet-related infrastructure. From dial-up to broadband to Wi-Fi, companies have invested billions of dollars to update and upgrade the system, allowing the internet to maximize its offerings and give way to technological breakthroughs, innovative businesses, and ways to share and communicate like never before.  

The electric grid is similar; it is both the backbone and the facilitator upon which the future of electricity can be built. If the vision for a smarter grid is to deploy advanced energy technologies, create new business models, and transform the way electricity is produced, distributed, and consumed, then updating and modernizing existing infrastructure and building out new intelligent infrastructure need to be top priorities. But this requires money. To be sure, increased investment in grid-related infrastructure is the key component to transitioning to a smarter grid; a grid capable of supporting and integrating advanced energy technologies within a more digital grid architecture that will result in a cleaner, more modern and efficient, and reliable and secure electricity system.

The inherent challenges of deploying new technologies and resources — reliability, bidirectional flow, intermittency, visibility, and communication, to name a few, as well as emerging climate resilience concerns shaping planning today, are not insurmountable and demonstrate exactly why federal and state authorities and electricity sector stakeholders should be planning for and making appropriate investment decisions now. My organization, Alliance for Innovation and Infrastructure, will release a report Wednesday addressing these challenges facing our infrastructure, and the opportunities a distributed smart grid would provide. From upgrading traditional wires and poles and integrating smart power inverters and real-time sensors to deploying advanced communications platforms and energy analytics software, there are numerous technologies currently available and capable of being deployed that warrant investment consideration.

Making these and similar investments will help to identify and resolve reliability issues earlier, and address vulnerabilities identified in the latest power grid report card findings, which in turn will create a stronger, more flexible grid that can then support additional emerging technologies, resulting in a system better able to address integration challenges. Doing so will ease the electricity evolution in the long-term and best realize the full reliability, economic, and environmental benefits that a smarter grid can offer.  

 

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Six key trends that shaped Europe's electricity markets in 2020

European Electricity Market Trends 2020 highlight decarbonisation, rising renewables, EV adoption, shifting energy mix, COVID-19 impacts, fuel switching, hydro, wind and solar growth, gas price dynamics, and wholesale electricity price increases.

 

Key Points

EU power in 2020 saw lower emissions, more renewables, EV growth, demand shifts, and higher wholesale prices.

✅ Power sector CO2 down 14% on higher renewables, lower coal

✅ Renewables 39% vs fossil 36%; hydro, wind, solar expanded

✅ EV share hit 17%; wholesale prices rose with gas, ETS costs

 

According to the Market Observatory for Energy DG Energy report, the COVID-19 pandemic and favorable weather conditions are the two key drivers of the trends experienced within the European electricity market in 2020. However, the two drivers were exceptional or seasonal.

The key trends within Europe’s electricity market include:


1. Decrease in power sector’s carbon emissions

As a result of the increase in renewables generation and decrease in fossil-fueled power generation in 2020, the power sector was able to reduce its carbon footprint by 14% in 2020. The decrease in the sector’s carbon footprint in 2020 is similar to trends witnessed in 2019 when fuel switching was the main factor behind the decarbonisation trend.

However, most of the drivers in 2020 were exceptional or seasonal (the pandemic, warm winter, high
hydro generation). However, the opposite is expected in 2021, with the first months of 2021 having relatively cold weather, lower wind speeds and higher gas prices, with stunted hydro and nuclear output also cited, developments which suggest that the carbon emissions and intensity of the power sector could rise.

The European Union is targeting to completely decarbonise its power sector by 2050 through the introduction of supporting policies such as the EU Emissions Trading Scheme, the Renewable Energy Directive and legislation addressing air pollutant emissions from industrial installations, with expectations that low-emissions sources will cover most demand growth in the coming years.

According to the European Environment Agency, Europe halved its power sector’s carbon emissions in 2019 from 1990 levels.


2. Changes in energy consumption

EU consumption of electricity fell by -4% as majority of industries did not operate at full level during the first half of 2020. Although majority of EU residents stayed at home, meaning an increase in residential energy use, rising demand by households could not reverse falls in other sectors of the economy.

However, as countries renewed COVID-19 restrictions, energy consumption during the 4th quarter was closer to the “normal levels” than in the first three quarters of 2020. 

The increase in energy consumption in the fourth quarter of 2020 was also partly due to colder temperatures compared to 2019 and signs of surging electricity demand in global markets.


3. Increase in demand for EVs

As the electrification of the transport system intensifies, the demand for electric vehicles increased in 2020 with almost half a million new registrations in the fourth quarter of 2020. This was the highest figure on record and translated into an unprecedented 17% market share, more than two times higher than in China and six times higher than in the United States.

However, the European Environment Agency (EEA)argues that the EV registrations were lower in 2020 compared to 2019. EEA states that in 2019, electric car registrations were close to 550 000 units, having reached 300 000 units in 2018.


4. Changes in the region’s energy mix and increase in renewable energy generation

The structure of the region’s energy mix changed in 2020, according to the report.

Owing to favorable weather conditions, hydro energy generation was very high and Europe was able to expand its portfolio of renewable energy generation such that renewables (39%) exceeded the share of fossil fuels (36%) for the first time ever in the EU energy mix.

Rising renewable generation was greatly assisted by 29 GW of wind and solar capacity additions in 2020, which is comparable to 2019 levels. Despite disrupting the supply chains of wind and solar resulting in project delays, the pandemic did not significantly slow down renewables’ expansion.

In fact, coal and lignite energy generation fell by 22% (-87 TWh) and nuclear output dropped by 11% (-79 TWh). On the other hand, gas energy generation was not significantly impacted owing to favorable prices which intensified coal-to-gas and lignite-to-gas switching, even as renewables crowd out gas in parts of the market.


5. Retirement of coal energy generation intensify

 As the outlook for emission-intensive technologies worsens and carbon prices rise, more and more early coal retirements have been announced. Utilities in Europe are expected to continue transitioning from coal energy generation under efforts to meet stringent carbon emissions reduction targets and as they try to prepare themselves for future business models that they anticipate to be entirely low-carbon reliant.

6. Increase in wholesale electricity prices

In recent months, more expensive emission allowances, along with rising gas prices, have driven up wholesale electricity prices on many European markets to levels last seen at the beginning of 2019. The effect was most pronounced in countries that are dependent on coal and lignite. The wholesale electricity prices dynamic is expected to filter through to retail prices.

The rapid sales growth in the EVs sector was accompanied by expanding charging infrastructure. The number of high-power charging points per 100 km of highways rose from 12 to 20 in 2020.

 

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Wind turbine firms close Spanish factories as Coronavirus restrictions tighten

Spain Wind Turbine Factory Shutdowns disrupt manufacturing as Vestas, Siemens Gamesa, and Nordex halt Spanish plants amid COVID-19 lockdowns, straining supply chains and renewables projects across Europe, with partial operations and maintenance continuing.

 

Key Points

COVID-19 lockdowns pause Spanish wind factories by Vestas, Siemens Gamesa, and Nordex, disrupting supply chains.

✅ Vestas, Siemens Gamesa, Nordex halt Spanish manufacturing

✅ Service and maintenance continue under safety protocols

✅ Supply chain and project timelines face delays in Europe

 

Europe’s largest wind turbine makers on Wednesday said they had shut down more factories in Spain, a major hub for the continent’s renewables sector, in response to an almost total lockdown in the country to contain the coronavirus outbreak as the Covid-19 crisis disrupts the sector.

Denmark’s Vestas, the world No.1, has suspended production at its two Spanish plants, a spokesman told Reuters, adding that its service and maintenance business was still working. Vestas has also paused manufacturing and construction in India, which is under a nationwide lockdown too, he said, and similar disruptions could stall U.S. utility solar projects this year.

Top rival Siemens Gamesa, known for its offshore wind turbine lineup, suspended production at six Spanish factories on Monday, bringing total closures there to eight, a spokeswoman said.

Four components factories are still partially up and running, at Reinosa on the north coast, Cuenca near Madrid, Mungia and Siguiero, she added.

Germany’s Nordex, the No.8 globally which is 36% owned by Spain’s Acciona, has now shuttered all of its production in Spain, even as new projects like Enel’s 90MW build move ahead, including two nacelle casing factories in Barasoain and Vall d’Uixo, as well as a rotor blade site in Lumbier.

“Production is no longer active,” a spokeswoman said in response to a Reuters query.

The new closures take the number of idled wind power factories on the continent to 19, all in Spain and Italy, the European countries worst hit by the pandemic, with investments at risk across the sector.

Spain is second only to Italy in terms of numbers of coronavirus-related fatalities and restrictions have become even stricter in the country’s third week of lockdown at a time when renewables surpassed fossil fuels for the first time in Europe.

“Some factories have temporarily paused activity as a precautionary step to strengthen sanitary measures within the sites and guarantee full compliance with government recommendations,” industry association WindEurope said, noting that wind power grows in some markets despite the pandemic.

 

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India's electricity demand falls at the fastest pace in at least 12 years

India Industrial Output Slowdown deepens as power demand slumps, IIP contracts, and electricity, manufacturing, and mining weaken; capital goods plunge while RBI rate cuts struggle to lift GDP growth, infrastructure, and fuel demand.

 

Key Points

A downturn where IIP contracts as power demand, manufacturing, mining, and capital goods fall despite RBI rate cuts.

✅ IIP fell 4.3% in Sep, worst since Feb 2013.

✅ Power demand dropped for a third month, signaling weak industry.

✅ Capital goods output plunged 20.7%, highlighting weak investment.

 

India's power demand fell at the fastest pace in at least 12 years in October, signalling a continued decline in the industrial output, mirroring how China's power demand dropped when plants were shuttered, according to government data. Electricity has about 8% weighting in the country's index for industrial production.

India needs electricity to fuel its expanding economy and has at times rationed coal supplies when demand surged, but a third decline in power consumption in as many months points to tapering industrial activity in a nation that aims to become a $5 trillion economy by 2024.

India's industrial output fell at the fastest pace in over six years in September, adding to a series of weak indicators that suggests that the country’s economic slowdown is deep-rooted and interest rate cuts alone may not be enough to revive growth.

Annual industrial output contracted 4.3% in September, government data showed on Monday. It was the worst performance since a 4.4% contraction in February 2013, according to Refinitiv data.

Analysts polled by Reuters had forecast industrial output to fall 2% for the month.

“A contraction of industrial production by 4.3% in September is serious and indicative of a significant slowdown as both investment and consumption demand have collapsed,” said Rupa Rege Nitsure, chief economist of L&T Finance Holdings.

The industrial output figure is the latest in a series of worrying economic data in Asia's third largest economy, which is also the world's third-largest electricity producer as well.

Economists say that weak series of data could mean economic growth for July-September period will remain near April-June quarter levels of 5%, which was a six-year low, and some analysts argue for rewiring India's electricity to bolster productivity. The Indian government is likely to release April-September economic growth figures by the end of this month.

Subdued inflation and an economic slowdown have prompted the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to cut interest rates by a total of 135 basis points this year, while coal and electricity shortages eased in recent months.

“These are tough times for the RBI, as it cannot do much about it but there will be pressures on it to act ...Blunt tools like monetary policy may not be effective anymore,” Nitsure said.

Data showed in September mining sector fell 8.5%, while manufacturing and electricity fell 3.9% and 2.6% respectively, even as imported coal volumes rose during April-October. Capital goods output during the month fell 20.7%, indicating sluggish demand.

“IIP (Index of Industrial Production) growth in October 2019 is also likely to be in negative territory and only since November 2019 one can expect mild IIP expansion, said Devendra Kumar Pant, Chief Economist and Senior Director, Public Finance, India Ratings & Research (Fitch Group).

Infrastructure output, which comprises eight main sectors, in September showed a contraction of 5.2%, the worst in 14 years, even as global daily electricity demand fell about 15% during pandemic lockdowns.

India's fuel demand fell to its lowest in more than two years in September, with consumption of diesel to its lowest levels since January 2017. Diesel and gasoline together make up over 7.4% of the IIP weightage.

In 2019/20 India's fuel demand — also seen as an indicator of economic and industrial activity — is expected to post the slowest growth in about six years.

 

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