Toronto Power Returns, System Fragile

TORONTO, ON -- - Ontario's electricity grid was up to almost two thirds of its normal capacity by early this afternoon, but even in cities that were back online, electricity service was still sporadic. Residents are being urged to conserve electricity and water.

In Toronto, for example, parts of downtown were still without power. Around Rosedale, electricity service resumed at mid-morning, but shut down again shortly afterwards.

A spokesperson for the Independent Electricity Market Operator, which regulates Ontario's electricity market, said service should be back to normal by midday tomorrow, but pleaded with consumers to use as little electricity as possible.

"We're expecting within the next 24 hours everyone will be back online, but if demand is too high, there may be brownouts, or we may have to do rolling blackouts," said Terry Young. He estimated Ontario's electricity system was pumping out 12,000 megawatts of power by noon, down from the usual 19,000 or 20,000.

With the temperature expected to hit 31 C today, Young said "the weather's not making it any easier." But he asked Ontarians not to plug in their air conditioners, which use large amounts of electricity.

"The transmission system seems to be operating fine, but we seem to be having some trouble with some of the generating stations," Young said.

Meanwhile, the effects of the blackout continue to reverberate throughout the GTA. At Pearson International Airport, Air Canada isn't expected to resume flying until late afternoon, and travellers are being advised to call their airlines before going to the airport. Subway service likely won't resume until Monday, according to the TTC, and GO Trains have been cancelled for the rest of the day. Some streetcars and buses are running.

Traffic during the morning rush-hour was light, as most Torontonians appeared to be heeding Ontario Premier Ernie Eves' call to stay at home unless absolutely necessary.

Toronto Mayor Mel Lastman praised the city's residents for staying in good spirits and helping each other and police during the blackout.

"I am so proud... Toronto is a city of heroes," said Lastman, adding that some residents may have found an enjoyable way to kill time.

"I guess in nine months, we're going to see the biggest baby boom we've ever seen," Lastman said.

The blackout comes as a heavy blow to Toronto and Ontario economies already reeling from the effect of SARS, said Doug Porter, senior economist at BMO Nesbitt Burns.

"We know it's a negative, but we just don't know how big a negative," said Porter, who drew parallels between the current blackout and the one that hit Quebec, eastern Ontario and northern New York after an ice storm in 1998.

"I don't think this will last as long as the ice storm did, but I think the impact could end up being on a similar scale," said Porter. He estimated the 1998 ice storm caused Canada's GDP to shrink by 2/10 of a percentage point.

Some of the businesses most affected by the blackout will be insurance companies, retailers, and the travel and tourism industries, Porter predicted.

Insurance companies will have to make massive payouts to cover damage caused by the blackouts, while retailers will have trouble getting anyone into their stores.

"Even if they're open, people are being told to stay home if they're not essential services, so that's not good for retailers,"' said Porter.