Rejection of coal gives nuclear fresh hope

Quebec Hydropower Export Retaliation examines using electricity exports to counter U.S. tariffs amid Canada-U.S. trade tensions, weighing clean energy supply, grid reliability, energy security, legal risks, and long-term market impacts.

Key Points

Using Quebec electricity exports as leverage against U.S. tariffs, and its economic, legal, and diplomatic consequences.

✅ Revenue loss for Quebec and higher costs for U.S. consumers

✅ Risk of legal disputes under trade and energy agreements

✅ Long-term erosion of market share and grid cooperation

As trade tensions between Canada and the United States continue to escalate, with electricity exports at risk according to recent reporting, discussions have intensified around potential Canadian responses to the imposition of U.S. tariffs. One of the proposals gaining attention is the idea of reducing or even halting the export of energy from Quebec to the U.S. This measure has been suggested by some as a potential countermeasure to retaliate against the tariffs. However, experts and industry leaders are urging caution, emphasizing that the consequences of such a decision could have significant economic and diplomatic repercussions for both Canada and the United States.

Quebec plays a critical role in energy trade, particularly in supplying hydroelectric power to the United States, especially to the northeastern states, including New York where tariffs may spike energy prices according to analysts, strengthening the case for stable cross-border flows. This energy trade is deeply embedded in the economic fabric of both regions. For Quebec, the export of hydroelectric power represents a crucial source of revenue, while for the U.S., it provides access to a steady and reliable supply of clean, renewable energy. This mutually beneficial relationship has been a cornerstone of trade between the two countries, promoting economic stability and environmental sustainability.

In the wake of recent U.S. tariffs on Canadian goods, some policymakers have considered using energy exports as leverage, echoing threats to cut U.S. electricity exports in earlier disputes, to retaliate against what is viewed as an unfair trade practice. The idea is to reduce or stop the flow of electricity to the U.S. as a way to strike back at the tariffs and potentially force a change in U.S. policy. On the surface, this approach may appear to offer a viable means of exerting pressure. However, experts warn that such a move would be fraught with significant risks, both economically and diplomatically.

First and foremost, Quebec's economy is heavily reliant on revenue from hydroelectric exports to the U.S. Any reduction in these energy sales could have serious consequences for the province's economic stability, potentially resulting in job losses and a decrease in investment. The hydroelectric power sector is a major contributor to Quebec's GDP, and recent events, including a tariff threat delaying a green energy bill in Quebec, illustrate how trade tensions can ripple through the policy landscape, while disrupting this source of income could harm the provincial economy.

Additionally, experts caution that reducing energy exports could have long-term ramifications on the energy relationship between Quebec and the northeastern U.S. These two regions have developed a strong and interconnected energy network over the years, and abruptly cutting off the flow of electricity could damage this vital partnership. Legal challenges could arise under existing trade agreements, and even as tariff threats boost support for Canadian energy projects among some stakeholders, the situation would grow more complex. Such a move could also undermine trust between the two parties, making future negotiations on energy and other trade issues more difficult.

Another potential consequence of halting energy exports is that U.S. states may seek alternative sources of energy, diminishing Quebec's market share in the long run. As the U.S. has a growing demand for clean energy, especially as it looks to transition away from fossil fuels, and looks to Canada for green power in several regions, cutting off Quebec’s electricity could prompt U.S. states to invest in other forms of energy, including renewables or even nuclear power. This could have a lasting effect on Quebec's position in the U.S. energy market, making it harder for the province to regain its footing.

Moreover, reducing or ceasing energy exports could further exacerbate trade tensions, leading to even greater economic instability. The U.S. could retaliate by imposing additional tariffs on Canadian goods or taking other measures that would negatively impact Canada's economy. This could create a cycle of escalating trade barriers that would hurt both countries and undermine the broader North American trade relationship.

While the concept of using energy exports as a retaliatory tool may seem appealing to some, the experts' advice is clear: the potential economic and diplomatic costs of such a strategy outweigh the short-term benefits. Quebec’s role as an energy supplier to the U.S. is crucial to its own economy, and maintaining a stable, reliable energy trade relationship is essential for both parties. Rather than escalating tensions further, it may be more prudent for Canada and the U.S. to seek diplomatic solutions that preserve trade relations and minimize harm to their economies.

While the idea of using Quebec’s energy exports as leverage in response to U.S. tariffs may appear attractive on the surface, and despite polls showing support for tariffs on energy and minerals among Canadians, it carries significant risks. Experts emphasize the importance of maintaining a stable energy export strategy to protect Quebec’s economy and preserve positive diplomatic relations with the U.S. Both countries have much to lose from further escalating trade tensions, and a more measured approach is likely to yield better outcomes in the long run.

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Rolls-Royce and Exelon UKSMR Partnership accelerates factory-built small modular reactors, nuclear power, clean energy, 440MW units, advanced manufacturing, fleet deployment, net zero goals, and resilient, low-cost baseload generation in the UK and globally.

Key Points

A partnership to deploy factory-built SMR stations, providing 440MW low-carbon baseload for the UK and export markets.

✅ 440MW factory-built SMR units with rapid modular assembly

✅ Exelon to operate and enhance high capacity factors

✅ Supports UK net zero, jobs, and export-led manufacturing

Rolls-Royce and Exelon Generation have signed a Memorandum of Understanding to pursue the potential for Exelon Generation to operate compact nuclear power stations both in the UK and internationally, including markets such as Canada where New Brunswick SMR questions are prompting public debate today.

Exelon Generation will be using their operational experience to assist Rolls Royce in the development and deployment of the UKSMR.

Rolls-Royce is leading a consortium that is designing a low-cost factory built nuclear power station, known as a small modular reactor (SMR), with UK mini-reactor approval anticipated as development progresses. Its standardised, factory-made components and advanced manufacturing processes push costs down, while the rapid assembly of the modules and components inside a weatherproof canopy on the power station site itself avoid costly schedule disruptions.

The consortium is working with its partners and UK Government to secure a commitment for a fleet of factory built nuclear power stations, each providing 440MW of electricity, to be operational within a decade, helping the UK meet its net zero obligations in line with the green industrial revolution policy set out by government. A fleet deployment in the UK will lead to the creation of new factories that will make the components and modules which will help the economy recover from the Covid-19 pandemic and pave the way for significant export opportunities as well.

The consortium members feature the best of nuclear engineering, construction and infrastructure expertise in Assystem, Atkins, BAM Nuttall, Jacobs, Laing O'Rourke, National Nuclear Laboratory, Nuclear Advanced Manufacturing Research Centre, Rolls-Royce and TWI. Exelon will add valuable operational experience to the team.

Tom Samson, interim Chief Executive Officer of the UKSMR consortium, said: 'Nuclear power is central to tackling climate change and economic recovery, but it must be affordable, reliable and investable and the way we manufacture and assemble our power station brings its cost down to be comparable with offshore wind.

'It's a compelling proposition that could draw new players into the UK's power generation landscape, improving choice for consumers and providing uninterrupted low carbon energy to homes and businesses.

'The opportunity to partner with Exelon is a very exciting prospect for our program, complementing our existing Consortium partnerships with one of the world's largest nuclear operator adds an important dimension to our growth ambitions, embodies the strength of the UK and USA alliance on nuclear matters and reflects wider international moves, such as a Canadian premiers' SMR initiative to accelerate technology development, and offers our future customers the ability to achieve the highest performance standards associated with Exelon's outstanding operational track record.'

The power stations will be built by the UKSMR consortium, before being handed over to be operated by power generation companies. Exelon Generation will work closely with the consortium during the pre-operation period. Exelon Nuclear operates 21 nuclear reactors in America, and U.S. regulators recently issued a final safety evaluation for a NuScale SMR that underscores momentum in the sector. The Exelon nuclear fleet is an integral part of the U.S. clean power mix; it produces more than 158 million megawatt-hours of clean electricity every year.

Bryan Hanson, EVP and COO of Exelon Generation said: 'We believe that SMRs are a crucial part of the world's clean energy mix, as projects like Darlington SMRs advance in Ontario. With our experience both in the US and internationally, Exelon is confident that we can help Rolls Royce ensure SMRs play a key role in the UK's energy future. We've had a very strong record of performance for 20 consecutive years, with a 2019 capacity factor of 95.7 percent. We will leverage this experience to achieve sustainably high capacity factors for the UKSMRs.'

Ralph Hunter, Managing Director of Exelon Nuclear Partners, who runs Exelon's international clean energy business, said: 'We have a strong track record of success to be the operator of choice for the UKSMR. We will help develop operational capability, training and human capacity development in the UK, as utilities such as Ontario Power Generation commit to SMRs abroad, ensuring localisation of skills and a strong culture of safety, performance and efficiency.'

By 2050 a full UK programme of a fleet of factory built nuclear power stations in the UK could create:

Up to 40,000 jobs GBP52BN of value to the UK economy GBP250BN of exports

The current phase of the programme has been jointly funded by all consortium members and UK Research and Innovation.

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Australia Energy Policy Debate highlights IPCC warnings, Paris Agreement goals, coal phase-out, emissions reduction, renewables, gas, pumped hydro, storage, reliability, and investment certainty amid NEG uncertainty and federal-state tensions over targets.

Key Points

Debate over coal, emissions targets, and grid reliability, guided by IPCC science, Paris goals, and market reforms.

✅ IPCC urges rapid cuts and coal phase-out by 2050

✅ NEG's emissions pillar stalled; reliability obligation alive

✅ States, market operators push investment certainty and storage

The United Nation’s climate body, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, on Monday said radical emissions reduction across the world’s economies, including a phase-out of coal by 2050, was required to avoid the most devastating climate change impacts.

The Morrison government dismissed the findings. Treasurer Josh Frydenberg insisted this week that “coal is an important part of the energy mix”.

“If we were to take coal out of the system the lights would go out on the east coast of Australia overnight. It provides more than 60 per cent of our power," he said.

Ms Zibelman, whose organisation operates the nation’s largest gas and electricity markets, said if Australia was to make an orderly transition to low-emissions electricity generation, aligning with the sustainable electric planet vision, “then certainly we would keep the lights on”.

Ms Zibelman said coal assets should be maintained “as long as they are economically viable and we should have a plan to replace them with resources that are lowest cost”.

Those options comprised gas, renewables, pumped hydro and other energy storage, she told ABC radio, as New Zealand weighs electrification to replace fossil fuels.

Under the Paris treaty the government has pledged to lower emissions by 26 per cent by 2030, based on 2005 levels, even as national emissions rose 2% recently according to industry reports.

Labor would increase the goal to a 45 per cent cut - a policy Prime Minister Scott Morrison said last month would " shut down every coal-fired power station in the country and ... increase people’s power bill by about $1,400 on average for every single household”.

The federal government has scrapped its proposed National Energy Guarantee, which would have cut emissions in the electricity sector, but the reliability component of the plan may continue in some form.

The policy was being developed by the Energy Security Board. The group’s chairwoman Kerry Schott has expressed anger at its demise but on Thursday revealed the board was still working on the policy because “nobody told us to stop”.

Speaking at the Melbourne Institute's Outlook conference, she urged the government to revive the emissions reduction component of the plan to provide investment certainty, noting the IEA net-zero report on Canada shows electricity demand rises in decarbonisation.

Energy Minister Angus Taylor, an energy consultant before entering Parliament, on Thursday said the electricity sector would reduce emissions in line with the Paris deal without a mandated target.

Mr Taylor said only a “very brave state” would not support the policy’s reliability obligation.

The federal government has called a COAG energy council meeting for October 26 in Sydney to discuss electricity reliability.

It is understood Mr Taylor has not contacted Victoria, Queensland or the ACT since taking the portfolio, despite needing unanimous support from the states to progress the issue.

The Victorian government goes into caretaker mode on October 30 ahead of that state's election.

Victorian Energy Minister Lily D’Ambrosio said the federal government was “a rabble when it comes to energy policy, and we won’t be signing anything until after the election".

Speaking at the Melbourne Institute conference, prominent business leaders on Thursday bemoaned a lack of political leadership on energy policy and climate change, saying the only way forward appeared to be for companies to take action themselves, with some pointing to Canada's race to net-zero as a case study in the role of renewables.

Jayne Hrdlicka, chief executive of ASX-listed dairy and infant-formula company a2 Milk, said "we all have an obligation to do the very best job we can in managing our carbon footprint".

"We just need to get on doing what we can .. and then hope that policy will catch up. But we can’t wait," she said.

Ms Hrdlicka said the recent federal political turmoil had been frustrating "because if you invest in building relationships as most of us do in Canberra and then overnight they are all changed, you’re starting from scratch".

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China Coal-Fired Power Consolidation targets capacity cuts through mergers, SASAC-led restructuring, debt reduction, asset optimization, and retiring inefficient plants across state-owned utilities to improve efficiency, stabilize liabilities, and align with energy transition policies.

Key Points

A SASAC-driven plan merging utility assets to cut coal capacity, reduce debt, and retire outdated, loss-making plants.

✅ Merge five central utilities' coal assets to streamline operations

✅ Target 25-33% capacity cuts and >50% loss reduction by 2021

✅ Prioritize debt-ridden regions: Gansu, Shaanxi, Xinjiang, Qinghai, Ningxia

China plans to slash coal-fired power capacity at its five biggest utilities by as much as a third in two years by merging their assets, amid broader power-sector strains that reverberate globally, according to a document seen by Reuters and four sources with knowledge of the matter.

The move to shed older and less-efficient capacity is being driven by pressure to cut heavy debt levels at the utilities. China, is, however, building more coal-fired power plants and approving dozens of new mines to bolster a slowing economy, even as recent power cuts highlight grid imbalances.

The five utilities, which are controlled by the central government, accounted for around 44% of China’s total coal-fired power capacity at the end of 2018, a share likely to be tested by rising electrification goals, with electricity to meet 60% by 2060 according to industry forecasts.

“(The utilities) will strive to reduce coal-fired power capacity by one quarter to one third ...cutting total losses by more than 50% from the current level to achieve a significant decline in debt-to-asset ratios by the end of 2021,” the document said.

The plan, initiated and overseen by the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council (SASAC), follows heavy losses at some of the utilities, amid a pandemic-era demand drop that hit industrial consumption.

Some of their coal-fired power stations have filed for bankruptcy in recent years as Beijing promotes the use of renewable energy and advances its nuclear program while opening up the state-controlled power market.

The SASAC did not immediately respond to a fax seeking comment and the sources declined to be identified as they were not authorised to speak to the media.

The utilities - China Huaneng Group Co, China Datang Corp, China Huadian Corp, State Power Investment Corp and China Energy Group - did not respond to faxes requesting comment.

Together, they had 474 coal-fired power plants with combined power generation capacity of 520 gigawatts (GW) at the end of last year.

Their coal-fired power assets came to 1.5 trillion yuan ($213 billion) while total coal-fired power liabilities were 1.1 trillion yuan, the document said.

The document was seen by two people at two of the utilities and was also verified by a source at SASAC and a government researcher.

It was not clear when the document was published but it said the merging and elimination of outdated capacity would start from 2019 and be achieved within three years, aiming to improve the efficiency and operations at the companies, reflecting a broader electricity sector mystery that policymakers are trying to resolve.

Utilities with debt-ridden operations in the northwestern regions of Gansu, Shaanxi, Xinjiang, Qinghai and Ningxia would be the first to carry out the plan, it said, even as India ration coal supplies during demand surges.

The government researcher said the SASAC has been researching possible consolidation in the coal-fired power sector since 2017, but added: “It’s easier said than done.”

“No one is willing to hand in their high quality assets and there is no point in merging the bad assets,” the government researcher said.

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BC Hydro COVID-19 Bill Relief offers pandemic support with bill credits, rate cuts, and deferred payments for residential, small business, and industrial customers across B.C., easing utilities costs during COVID-19 economic hardship.

Key Points

COVID-19 bill credits, a rate cut, and deferred payments for eligible B.C. homes, small businesses, and industrial customers.

✅ Non-repayable credits equal to 3 months of average bills.

✅ Small businesses closed can skip bills for three months.

✅ Large industry may defer 50% of electricity costs.

B.C. residents who have lost their jobs or had their wages cut will get a three-month break on BC Hydro bills, while small businesses, amid commercial consumption plummets during COVID-19, are also eligible to apply for similar relief.

Premier John Horgan said Wednesday the credit for residential customers will be three times a household’s average monthly bill over the past year and does not have to be repaid as part of the government’s support package during the COVID-19 pandemic, as BC Hydro demand down 10% highlights the wider market pressures.

He said small businesses that are closed will not have to pay their power bills for three months, and in Ontario an Ontario COVID-19 hydro rebate complemented similar relief, and large industrial customers, including those operating mines and pulp mills, can opt to have 50 per cent of their electricity costs deferred, though a deferred costs report warned of long-term liabilities.

BC Hydro rates will be cut for all customers by one per cent as of April 1, a move similar to Ontario 2021 rate reductions that manufacturers supported lower rates at the time, after the B.C. Utilities Commission provided interim approval of an application the utility submitted last August.

Eligible residential customers can apply for bill relief starting next week and small business applications will be accepted as of April 14, while staying alert to BC Hydro scam attempts during this period, with the deadline for both categories set at June 30.

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Manus Island Naval Base strengthens US-Australia-PNG cooperation at Lombrum, near the South China Sea, bolstering sovereignty, maritime rights, and Pacific security amid APEC talks, infrastructure investment, and Belt and Road competition.

Key Points

A US-Australia-PNG facility at Lombrum to bolster Pacific security and protect maritime rights across the region.

✅ Shared by US, Australia, and PNG at Lombrum on Manus Island

✅ Near South China Sea, reinforcing maritime security and access

✅ Counters opaque lending, aligns with free trade and infrastructure

Scott Morrison has caught himself bang in the middle of escalating tensions between the United States and China.

The US and Australia will share a naval base in the north end of Papua New Guinea on Manus Island, creating another key staging point close to the contested South China Sea.

“The United States will partner with Papua New Guinea and Australia on their joint initiative at Lombrum Naval Base,” US Vice President Mike Pence said.

“We will work with these two nations to protect sovereignty and maritime rights in the Pacific Islands. ”

At an Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation meeting in Port Moresby on Saturday, Mr Morrison urged nations to embrace free trade and avoid “unsustainable debt”, as the Philippines' clean energy commitment also featured in discussions.

He confirmed the US and Australia will share an expanded naval base on Manus Island, as the US ramped up rhetoric against China.

Mr Pence quoted President Donald Trump in his speech following Chinese President Xi Jinping, even as a Biden energy agenda is seen by some as better for Canada.

“We have great respect for President Xi and respect for China. But in the president’s words, China’s taken advantage of the United States for many, many years,” he said.

“And those days are over.”

His speech was met with stony silence from the Chinese delegation, after President Xi had reassured leaders his Belt and Road Initiative was not a debt trap.

China has also been at loggerheads with the United States over its territorial ambitions in the Pacific, encapsulated by Xi’s Belt and Road Initiative.

Unveiled in 2013, the Belt and Road initiative aims to bolster a sprawling network of land and sea links with Southeast Asia, Central Asia, the Middle East, Europe and Africa.

China’s efforts to win friends in the resource-rich Pacific have been watched warily by the traditionally influential powers in the region — Australia and the United States.

“It is not designed to serve any hidden geopolitical agenda,” President Xi said on Saturday.

“Nor is it a trap, as some people have labelled it.”

But Mr Pence said loans to developing countries were too often opaque and encouraged nations to look to the US instead of China.

“Too often they come with strings attached and lead to staggering debt,” he said in his speech.

“Do not accept foreign debt that could compromise your sovereignty.

“Just like America, always put your country first.”

Mr Morrison committed Australia to look to the Pacific nations and on Sunday he will host an informal BBQ with Pacific leaders, amid domestic moves like Western Australia's electricity bill credit for households.

He also announced a joint partnership with Japan and the US to fund infrastructure around the region, while at home debates over an electricity market overhaul continue.

On the back of Mr Morrison’s defence of free trade at the summit, Australian Trade Minister Simon Birmingham said he was confident the US was interested in an open trading environment in the long run, with parallel discussions such as a U.S.-Canada energy partnership underscoring regional economic ties.

Australia is hoping the US will, in the end, take a similar approach to its trade dispute with China as it did with its tariff threats against Mexico and Canada, as cross-border negotiations like the Columbia River Treaty continue to shape U.S.-Canada ties.

“Ultimately, they laid down arms, they walked away from threats, and they struck a new trade deal that ensures trade continues in that North American bloc,” Mr Birmingham told ABC TV on Sunday.

“We hope the same will happen in relation to China.”

Four countries including the US have signed up to an effort to bring electricity to 70 per cent of Papua New Guinea’s people by 2030.

Australia, Japan, the US and New Zealand on Sunday signed an agreement to work with Papua New Guinea’s government on electrification.

It’s the latest sign of great power rivalry in the South Pacific, where China is vying with the US and its allies for influence.

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