Reregulating power

By Baltimore Sun


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As controversial and contentious as the recently passed deficit reduction package proved to be, Gov. Martin O'Malley and members of the General Assembly must now confront an equally difficult and quarrelsome issue: how to better regulate the state's electric utilities. Like the budget deficit, it's a complex and long-standing problem that's likely to require some painful choices.

While it's clear that Maryland's 1999 deregulation law was deeply flawed, and while the recent transition to market prices was more painful than it needed to be, Baltimore's relatively high electricity rates are only part of the problem. Reliability is just as important an issue. If not addressed, Baltimore-area residents could face the prospect of blackouts or brownouts on hot summer days as early as 2011.

The issues of price and reliability are closely related and stem from a dysfunctional market for power. As a net importer of electricity, the Baltimore-Washington area has limited options - put in more power lines, build more (or expand existing) power plants, invest in conservation measures, or pursue some combination of the three.

Two major new transmission lines have been approved by PJM Interconnection, the organization that coordinates wholesale electricity supplies for the region. They could help, but neither is likely to be completed in three years, nor would they fully solve the problem.

Conservation and alternative energy sources could also prove helpful, but they, too, have their limits. It's all very well to buy energy-saving appliances, but Maryland's power capacity shortfall - potentially 1,500 megawatts (roughly the equivalent of Constellation's Brandon Shores plant) in five years - is bigger then that.

Adding sufficient capacity would certainly solve the problem, but whether Constellation Energy and other generators in the region are willing to make the investment remains to be seen. The catch is that the lack of capacity and congestion on the grid allow generators to charge more, a strong disincentive to invest in risky infrastructure.

More will be known when PJM conducts auctions next month and in May to determine where the grid's power will likely come from in 2011 and 2012, but Maryland needs to develop a sound regulatory strategy. It could, for instance, be advantageous to require Baltimore Gas and Electric to lock into long-term contracts as an incentive for companies to invest more in new generation.

Members of the Public Service Commission are scheduled to begin briefing lawmakers on some of those options tomorrow. The grim reality is that the high prices BGE customers pay today aren't going away; that's the nature of the marketplace. But things could get a lot worse in the not-too-distant future and it's up to the PSC, as well as Governor O'Malley and the General Assembly, to do a better job of regulating the electric system than those who came before them.

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From smart meters to big batteries, co-ops emerge as clean grid laboratories

Minnesota Electric Cooperatives are driving grid innovation with smart meters, time-of-use pricing, demand response, and energy storage, including iron-air batteries, to manage peak loads, integrate wind and solar, and cut costs for rural members.

 

Key Points

Member-owned utilities piloting load management, meters, and storage to integrate wind and solar, cutting peak demand.

✅ Time-of-use pricing pilots lower bills and shift peak load.

✅ Iron-air battery tests add multi-day, low-cost energy storage.

✅ Smart meters enable demand response across rural co-ops.

 

Minnesota electric cooperatives have quietly emerged as laboratories for clean grid innovation, outpacing investor-owned utilities on smart meter installations, time-based pricing pilots, and experimental battery storage solutions.

“Co-ops have innovation in their DNA,” said David Ranallo, a spokesperson for Great River Energy, a generation and distribution cooperative that supplies power to 28 member utilities — making it one of the state’s largest co-op players.

Minnesota farmers helped pioneer the electric co-op model more than a century ago, similar to modern community-generated green electricity initiatives, pooling resources to build power lines, transformers and other equipment to deliver power to rural parts of the state. Today, 44 member-owned electric co-ops serve about 1.7 million rural and suburban customers and supply almost a quarter of the state’s electricity.

Co-op utilities have by many measures lagged on clean energy. Many still rely on electricity from coal-fired power plants. They’ve used political clout with rural lawmakers to oppose new pollution regulations and climate legislation, and some have tried to levy steep fees on customers who install solar panels.

Where they are emerging as innovators is with new models and technology for managing electric grid loads — from load-shifting water heaters to a giant experimental battery made of iron. The programs are saving customers money by delaying the need for expensive new infrastructure, and also showing ways to unlock more value from cheap but variable wind and solar power.

Unlike investor-owned utilities, “we have no incentive to invest in new generation,” said Darrick Moe, executive director of the Minnesota Rural Electric Association. Curbing peak energy demand has a direct financial benefit for members.

Minnesota electric cooperatives have launched dozens of programs, such as the South Metro solar project, in recent years aimed at reducing energy use and peak loads, in particular. They include:

Cost calculations are the primary driver for electric cooperatives’ recent experimentation, and a lighter regulatory structure and evolving electricity market reforms have allowed them to act more quickly than for-profit utilities.

“Co-ops and [municipal utilities] can act a lot more nimbly compared to investor-owned utilities … which have to go through years of proceedings and discussions about cost-recovery,” said Gabe Chan, a University of Minnesota associate professor who has researched electric co-ops extensively. Often, approval from a local board is all that’s required to launch a venture.

Great River Energy’s programs, which are rebranded and sold through member co-ops, yielded more than 101 million kilowatt-hours of savings last year — enough to power 9,500 homes for a year.

Beyond lowering costs for participants and customers at large, the energy-saving and behavior-changing programs sometimes end up being cited as case studies by larger utilities considering similar offerings. Advocates supporting a proposal by the city of Minneapolis and CenterPoint Energy to allow residents to pay for energy efficiency improvements on their utility bills through distributed energy rebates used several examples from cooperatives.

Despite the pace of innovation on load management, electric cooperatives have been relatively slow to transition from coal-fired power. More than half of Great River Energy’s electricity came from coal last year, and Dairyland Power, another major power wholesaler for Minnesota co-ops, generated 70% of its energy from coal. Meanwhile, Xcel Energy, the state’s largest investor-owned utility, has already reduced coal to about 20% of its energy mix.

The transition to cleaner power for some co-ops has been slowed by long-term contracts with power suppliers that have locked them into dirty power. Others have also been stalled by management or boards that have been resistant to change. John Farrell, director of the Institute for Local Self-Reliance’s Energy Democracy program, said generalizing co-ops is difficult. 

“We’ve seen some co-ops that have got 75-year contracts for coal, that are invested in coal mines and using their newsletter to deny climate change,” he said. “Then you see a lot of them doing really amazing things like creating energy storage systems … and load balancing [programs], because they are unique and locally managed and can have that freedom to experiment without having to go through a regulatory process.”

Great River Energy, for its part, says it intends to reach 54% renewable generation by 2025, while some communities, like Frisco, Colorado, are targeting 100% clean electricity by specific dates. Its members recently voted to sell North Dakota’s largest coal plant, but the arrangement involves members continuing to buy power from the new owners for another decade.

The cooperative’s path to clean power could become clearer if its experimental iron-air battery project is successful. The project, the first of its kind in the country, is expected to be completed by 2023.

 

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Canada in top 10 for hydropower jobs, but doesn't rank on other renewables

Canada Renewable Energy Jobs rank top 10 in hydropower, says IRENA, but trail in solar PV, wind power, and liquid biofuels; clean tech growth, EV manufacturing, and Canada Infrastructure Bank funding signal broader carbon-neutral opportunities.

 

Key Points

Canada counts 61,130 clean energy roles, top 10 in hydropower, with potential in solar, wind, biofuels, and EV manufacturing.

✅ 61,130 clean energy jobs in Canada per IRENA

✅ Top 10 share in hydropower employment

✅ Growth expected in solar, wind, biofuels, and EVs

 

Canada has made the top 10 list of countries for the number of jobs in hydropower, but didn’t rank in three other key renewable energy technologies, according to new international figures.

Although Canada has only two per cent of the global workforce, it had one of the 10 largest slices of the world’s jobs in hydropower in 2019, says the Abu Dhabi-based International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA)

Canada didn’t make IRENA’s other top-10 employment lists, for solar photovoltaic (PV) technology, where solar power lags by international standards, liquid biofuels or wind power, released Sept. 30. Figures from the agency show the whole sector represents 61,130 jobs across Canada, or 0.5 per cent of the world’s 11.5 million jobs in renewables.

The numbers show Canada needs to move faster to minimize the climate crisis, including by joining trade blocs that put tariffs on high-carbon goods, argued the Victoria-based BC Sustainable Energy Association after reviewing IRENA’s report. The Canadian Renewable Energy Association also said it showed the country has untapped job creation potential, even as growth projections were scaled back after Ontario scrapped a clean energy program.

But other clean tech advocates say there’s more to the story. When tallying clean energy jobs, it's worth a broader look, Clean Energy Canada argued, pointing to the recent Ford-Unifor deal that includes a $1.8-billion commitment to produce electric vehicles in Oakville, Ont.

Natural Resources Minister Seamus O'Regan’s office also pointed out the renewables employment figures from IRENA are proportional to global population. “While Canada's share of the global clean energy job market is in line with our population size, we produce almost 2.7 per cent of the world’s total primary renewable energy supply. As only 0.5 per cent of the global population, we punch above our weight,” said O'Regan's press secretary, Ian Cameron.

Canada joined IRENA in January 2019 and the country has been described by the association as an “important market” for renewables over the long term.

On Thursday, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced a new $10-billion “Growth Plan” to be run by the Canada Infrastructure Bank that would include “$2.5 billion for clean power to support renewable generation and storage and to transmit clean electricity between provinces, territories, and regions, including to northern and Indigenous communities.” The infrastructure bank's plan is expected to create 60,000 jobs, the government said, and in Alberta an Alberta renewables surge could power 4,500 jobs as projects scale up.

World ‘building the renewable energy revolution now’

A powerful renewables sector is not just about job creation. It is also imperative if we are to meet global climate objectives, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Renewable energy sources have to make up at least a 63 per cent share of the global electricity market by mid-century to battle the more extreme effects of climate change, it said.

“The IRENA report shows that people all over of the world are building the renewable energy revolution now,” said Tom Hackney, policy adviser for the BC Sustainable Energy Association.

“Many people in Canada are doing so, too. But we need to move faster to minimize climate change. For example, at the level of trade policy, a great idea would be to develop low-carbon trading blocs that put tariffs on goods with high embodied carbon emissions.”

Canadian Renewable Energy Association president and CEO Robert Hornung said the IRENA jobs review highlights “significant job creation potential” in Canada. As governments explore how to stimulate economic recovery from the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, said Hornung, it's important to “capitalize on Canada's untapped renewable energy resources.”

In Canada, 82 per cent of the electricity grid is already non-emitting, noted Sarah Petrevan, policy director for Clean Energy Canada.

With the federal government committing to a 90 per cent non-emitting grid by 2030, said Petrevan, more wind and solar deployment can be expected, even though solar demand has lagged in recent years, especially in the Prairies where renewables are needed to help with Canada’s coal-fired power plant phase out.

One example of renewables in the Prairies, where the provinces are poised to lead growth, is the Travers Solar project, which is expected to be constructed in Alberta through 2021, and is being touted as “Canada's largest solar farm.”

But renewables are only “one part of the broader clean energy sector,” said Petrevan. Clean Energy Canada has outlined how Canada could be electric and clean with the right choices, and has calculated clean tech supports around 300,000 jobs, projected to grow to half a million by 2030.

“We’re talking about a transition of our energy system in every sense — not just in the power we produce. So while the IRENA figures provide global context, they reflect only a portion of both our current reality and the opportunity for Canada,” she said.

The organization’s research has shown that manufacturing of electric vehicles would be one of the fastest-growing job creators over the next decade. Putting a punctuation mark on that is a recent $1.8-billion deal with Ford Motor Company of Canada to produce five models of electric vehicles in Oakville, Ont.

China ‘remains the clear leader’ in renewables jobs

With 4.3 million renewable energy jobs in 2019, or 38 per cent of all renewables jobs, China “remains the clear leader in renewable energy employment worldwide,” the IRENA report states. China has the world's largest population and the second-largest GDP.

The country is also by far the world’s largest emitter of carbon pollution, at 28 per cent of global greenhouse gas emissions, and has significant fossil fuel interests. Chinese President Xi Jinping called for a “green revolution” last month, and pledged to “achieve carbon neutrality before 2060.”

China holds the largest proportion of jobs in hydropower, with 29 per cent of all jobs, followed by India at 19 per cent, Brazil at 11 per cent and Pakistan at five per cent, said IRENA.

Canada, with 32,359 jobs in the industry, and Turkey and Colombia hold two per cent each of the world’s hydropower jobs, while Myanmar and Russia hold three per cent each and Vietnam has four per cent.

China also dominates the global solar PV workforce, with 59 per cent of all jobs, followed by Japan, the United States, India, Bangladesh, Vietnam, Malaysia, Brazil, Germany and the Philippines. There are 4,261 jobs in solar PV in Canada, IRENA calculated, and the country is set to hit a 5 GW solar milestone as capacity expands, out of a global workforce of 3.8 million jobs.

In wind power, China again leads, with 44 per cent of all jobs. Germany, the United States and India come after, with the United Kingdom, Denmark, Mexico, Spain, the Philippines and Brazil following suit. Canada has 6,527 jobs in wind power out of 1.17 million worldwide.

As for liquid biofuels, Brazil leads that industry, with 34 per cent of all jobs. Indonesia, the United States, Colombia, Thailand, Malaysia, China, Poland, Romania and the Philippines fill out the top 10. There are 17,691 jobs in Canada in liquid biofuels.

 

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Typical Ontario electricity bill set to increase nearly 2% as fixed pricing ends

Ontario Electricity Rates update: OEB sets time-of-use and tiered pricing for residential customers, with kWh charges for peak, mid-peak, and off-peak periods reflecting COVID-19 impacts on demand, supply costs, and pricing.

 

Key Points

Ontario Electricity Rates are OEB-set time-of-use and tiered prices that set per-kWh costs for residential customers.

✅ Time-of-use: 21.7 peak, 15.0 mid-peak, 10.5 off-peak cents/kWh

✅ Tiered: 12.6 cents/kWh up to 1000 kWh, then 14.6 cents/kWh

✅ Average 700 kWh home pays about $2.24 more per month

 

Energy bills for the typical Ontario home are going up by about two per cent with fixed pricing coming to an end on Nov. 1, the Ontario Energy Board says. 

The province's electricity regulator has released new time-of-use pricing and says the rate for the average residential customer using 700 kWh per month will increase by about $2.24.

The change comes as Ontario stretches into its eight month of the COVID-19 pandemic with new case counts reaching levels higher than ever seen before.

Time-of-use pricing had been scrapped for residential bills for much for the pandemic with a single fixed COVID-19 hydro rate set for all hours of the day. The move, which came into effect June 1, was meant "to support families, small business and farms while Ontario plans for the safe and gradual reopening of the province," the OEB said at the time.

Ontario later set the off-peak price until February 7 around the clock to provide additional relief.

Fixed pricing meant customers' bills reflected how much power they used, rather than when they used it. Customers were charged 12.8 cents/kWh under the COVID-19 recovery rate no matter their time of use.

Beginning November, the province says customers can choose between time-of-use and tiered pricing options. Rates for time-of-use plans will be 21.7 cents/kWh during peak hours, 15 cents/kWh for mid-peak use and 10.5 cents/kWh for off-peak use. 

Customers choosing tiered pricing will pay 12.6 cents/kWh for the first 1000 kWh each month and then 14.6 cents/kWh for any power used beyond that.

The energy board says the increase in pricing reflects "a combination of factors, including those associated with the COVID-19 pandemic, that have affected demand, supply costs and prices in the summer and fall of 2020."

Asked for his reaction to the move Tuesday, Premier Doug Ford said, "I hate it," adding the province inherited an energy "mess" from the previous Liberal government and are "chipping away at it."

 

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Ambitious clean energy target will mean lower electricity prices, modelling says

Australia Clean Energy Target drives renewables in the National Electricity Market, with RepuTex modelling and the Finkel Review showing lower wholesale prices and emissions as gas generators set prices less often under ambitious targets.

 

Key Points

Policy boosting low emissions generation to cut electricity emissions and lower wholesale prices across Australia.

✅ Ambitious targets lower wholesale prices through added generation

✅ RepuTex modelling shows renewables displace costly gas peakers

✅ Finkel Review suggests CET cuts emissions and boosts reliability

 

The more ambitious a clean energy target is, the lower Australian wholesale electricity prices will be, according to new modelling by energy analysis firm RepuTex.

The Finkel review, released last month recommended the government introduce a clean energy target (CET), which it found would cut emissions from the national electricity market and put downward pressure on both wholesale and retail prices, aligning with calls to favor consumers over generators in market design.

The Finkel review only modelled a CET that would cut emissions from the electricity sector by 28% below 2005 levels by 2030. But all available analysis has demonstrated that such a cut would not be enough to meet Australia’s overall emissions reductions made as part of the Paris agreement, which themselves were too weak to help meet the central aim of that agreement – to keep global warming to “well below 2C”.

RepuTex modelled the effect of a CET that cut emissions from the electricity sector by 28% – like that modelled in the Finkel Review – as well as one it said was consistent with 2C of global warming, which would cut emissions from electricity by 45% below 2005 levels by 2030.

It found both scenarios caused wholesale prices to drop significantly compared to doing nothing, despite IEA warnings on falling energy investment that could lead to shortages, with the more ambitious scenario resulting in lower wholesale prices between 2025 and 2030.

In the “business as usual scenario”, RepuTex found wholesale prices would hover roughly around the current price of $100 per MWh.

Under a CET that reduced electricity emissions by 28%, prices would drop to under $40 around 2023, and then rise to nearly $60 by 2030.

The more ambitious CET had a broadly similar effect on wholesale prices. But RepuTex found it would drive prices down a little slower, but then keep them down for longer, stabilising at about $40 to $50 for most of the 2020s.

It found a CET would drive prices down by incentivising more generation into the market. The more ambitious CET would further suppress prices by introducing more renewable energy, resulting in expensive gas generators less often being able to set the price of electricity in the wholesale market, a dynamic seen with UK natural gas price pressures recently.

The downward pressure of a CET on wholesale prices was more dramatic in the RepuTex report than in Finkel’s own modelling. But that was largely because, as Alan Finkel himself acknowledged, the estimates of the costs of renewable energy in the Finkel review modelling were conservative.

Speaking at the National Press Club, Finkel said: “We were conservative in our estimates of wind and large-scale solar generator prices. Indeed, in recent months the prices for wind generation have already come in lower than what we modelled.”

The RepuTex modelling also found the economics of the national electricity market no longer supported traditional baseload generation – such as coal power plants that were unable to respond flexibly to demand, with debates over power market overhauls in Alberta underscoring similar tensions – and so they would not be built without the government distorting the market.

“With a premium placed on flexible generation that can ramp up or down, baseload only generation – irrespective of how clean or dirty it is – is likely to be too inflexible to compete in Australia’s future electricity system,” the report said.

“In this context, renewable energy remains attractive to the market given it is able to deliver energy reliability, with no emissions, at low cost prices, with clean grid and battery trends in Canada informing the shift for policymakers. This affirms that renewables are a lay down misere to out-compete traditionally fossil-fuel sources in Australia for the foreseeable future.”

 

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Top Senate Democrat calls for permanent renewable energy, storage, EV tax credits

Clean Energy Tax Incentives could expand under Democratic proposals, including ITC, PTC, and EV tax credits, boosting renewable energy, energy storage, and grid modernization within a broader infrastructure package influenced by Green New Deal goals.

 

Key Points

Federal incentives like ITC, PTC, and EV credits that cut costs and speed renewables, storage, and grid upgrades.

✅ Proposes permanence for ITC, PTC, and EV tax credits

✅ Could accelerate solar, wind, storage, and grid upgrades

✅ Passage depends on bipartisan infrastructure compromise

 

The 115th U.S. Congress has not even adjourned for the winter, and already a newly resurgent Democratic Party is making demands that reflect its majority status in the U.S. House come January.

Climate appears to be near the top of the list. Last Thursday, Senator Chuck Schumer (D-NY), the Democratic Leader in the Senate, sent a letter to President Trump demanding that any infrastructure package taken up in 2019 include “policies and funding to transition to a clean energy economy and mitigate the risks that the United States is already facing due to climate change.”

And in a list of policies that Schumer says should be included, the top item is “permanent tax incentives for domestic production of clean electricity and storage, energy efficient homes and commercial buildings, electric vehicles, and modernizing the electric grid.”

In concrete terms, this could mean an extension of the Investment Tax Credit (ITC) for solar and energy storage, the Production Tax Credit (PTC) for wind and the federal electric vehicle (EV) tax credit program as well.

 

Pressure from the Left

This strong statement on climate change, clean energy and infrastructure investment comes as at least 30 incoming members of the U.S. House of Representatives have signed onto a call for the creation of a committee to explore a “Green New Deal” and to move the nation to 100% renewable energy by 2030.*

It also comes as Schumer has come under fire by activists for rumors that he plans to replace Senator Maria Cantwell (D-Washington) with coal state Democrat Joe Manchin (D-West Virginia) as the top Democrat on the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee.

As such, one possible way to read these moves is that centrist leaders like Schumer are responding to pressure from an energized and newly elected Left wing of the Democratic Party. It is notable that Schumer’s program includes many of the aims of the Green New Deal, while avoiding any explicit use of that phrase.

 

Implications of a potential ITC extension

The details of levels and timelines are important here, particularly for the ITC.

The ITC was set to expire at the end of 2016, but was extended in legislative horse-trading at the end of 2015 to a schedule where it remains at 30% through the end of 2019 and then steps down for the next three years, and disappears entirely for residential projects. Since that extension the IRS has issued guidance around the use of co-located energy storage, as well as setting a standard under which PV projects can claim the ITC for the year that they begin construction.

This language around construction means that projects can start work in 2019, complete in 2023 and still claim the 30% ITC, and this may be why we at pv magazine USA are seeing an unprecedented boom in project pipelines across the United States.

Of course, if the ITC were to become permanent some of those projects would be pushed out to later years. But as we saw in 2016, despite an extension of the ITC many projects were still completed before the deadline, leading to the largest volume of PV installed in the United States in any one year to date.

This means that if the ITC were extended by the end of 2020, we could see the same thing all over again – a boom in projects created by the expected sunset, and then after a slight lull a continuation of growth.

Or it is possible that a combination of raw economics, increased investor and utility interest, and accelerating renewable energy mandates will cause solar growth rates to continue every year, and that any changes in the ITC will only be a bump against a larger trend.

While the basis for expiration of the EV tax credit is the number of vehicles sold, not any year, both the battery storage and EV industries, which many see at an inflection point, could see similar effects if the ITC and EV tax credits are made permanent.

 

Will consensus be reached?

It is also unclear that any such infrastructure package will be taken up by Republicans, or that both parties will be able to come to a compromise on this issue. While the U.S. Congress passed an infrastructure bill in 2017, given the sharp and growing differences between the two parties, and divergent trade approaches such as the 100% tariff on Chinese-made EVs, it is not clear that they will be able to come to a meaningful compromise during the next two years.

 

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Sub-Saharan Africa has a huge electricity problem - but with challenge comes opportunity

Sub-Saharan Africa Energy Access faces critical deficits; SDG7, clean energy finance, off-grid solar, and microgrids drive electrification for health, education, and economy amid World Bank and IEA efforts to expand reliable, affordable power.

 

Key Points

Reliable, affordable power in sub-Saharan Africa via renewables, off-grid solar, and SDG7-led electrification.

✅ SDG7 targets universal, modern energy access by 2030

✅ Off-grid solar and microgrids boost rural electrification

✅ Health, education, and business depend on reliable power

 

Sub-Saharan Africa has an electricity problem. While the world as a whole has made great strides when it comes to providing access to electricity and moving toward universal electricity access worldwide (the world average is now 90 per cent with access, up from 83 per cent in 2010), southern and western African states still lag far behind.

According to Tracking SDG7: The Energy Progress Report, produced by a consortium of organisations including the World Bank, the International Energy Agency and the World Health Organization, 759 million people were without electricity in 2019 and threequarters of them were based in sub-Saharan Africa. At just seven per cent, South Sudan had the lowest access figures; Chad, Burundi and Malawi were only marginally higher. What’s more, due to a combination of factors, the situation is getting worse. In total, the region’s access deficit increased from 556 million people in 2010 to 570 million people in 2019.

These days, being without electricity has an impact on every sphere of life. The Covid-19 pandemic only served to put this into sharper relief. Intermittent electricity meant vaccination doses that rely on cold storage were impossible to deliver and, as more than 70 per cent of the health facilities in sub-Saharan Africa have no access to reliable electricity, the problem was vast. But even without a global pandemic, having no power stymies opportunity in every field, from education to economics.

French photojournalist Pascal Maitre, who has spent much of his career writing about sub-Saharan Africa, wanted to document the problems faced by people in areas with no electricity. He thought particularly carefully about the location for his project. ‘First, I was thinking I could take images in the Democratic Republic of the Congo,’ he says. ‘But then I thought that if you chose a place that has war, it’s logical that electricity won’t really work. So, instead, I wanted to find a place that is quite stable. I decided to go to Benin, where they have a democracy. It is a good example of a country that’s not in really bad shape but where they still have this problem. Also, I didn’t want to go to a place that is very remote, where it is normal not to have good service. So I decided to go to a place around 50 kilometres from the capital that you can get to by road.’

Maitre visited several villages in the region, as well as making trips to Chad and Senegal, and encountered the full range of limitations engendered by the power shortage. From teachers struggling to conduct lessons in the dark to midwives forced to work with only the weak light from a phone, the situation was clearly unacceptable. ‘People were very, very, very upset,’ he says. ‘I conducted a lot of interviews in different villages and lack of electricity touches education, economy, business, security and also emigration, because people have to move to big cities or maybe to Europe to get jobs.’

Where once the situation might have been accepted as the norm, people today are fully aware of the ways in which they are held back by the lack of power. As Maitre remembers: ‘A guy said to me one day, “Do you think it is normal that last time my wife delivered a baby, the midwife had to hold her phone between her teeth in order to see what she was doing?” You feel very frustrated.’ He adds that the fact that most people now have mobile phones only highlights the hardship. ‘Before, maybe it was not so frustrating. But now, most of these people have cellphones. The cellphone company puts antennae everywhere so the phones work, but people cannot recharge their phones. They have to go to the market, where someone will come with a generator to recharge.’

Governments and global organisations are very aware of the problem across the world as a whole. Sustainable Development Goal 7 (SDG7) – one of the 17 goals set out in 2015 by the United Nations General Assembly – was designed to ensure universal access to affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy by 2030, underscoring the push for clean, affordable and sustainable electricity for all by 2030. As part of this goal, international financial flows to developing countries in support of clean energy reached US$17 billion in 2018. As a result, some areas have seen huge improvement. According to the Energy Progress Report, in Latin America and the Caribbean, and in Eastern and South-Eastern Asia, the advance of electrification has been enough to approach universal access. By 2019, in Western Asia and North Africa, and Central and South Asia, 94 and 95 per cent of the population respectively had access to electricity.

But these statistics only serve to emphasise just how bad the situation is in sub-Saharan Africa, where electricity systems are unlikely to go green this decade according to several analyses. As the report states: ‘While renewable energy has demonstrated remarkable resilience during the pandemic, the unfortunate fact is that gains in energy access throughout Africa are being reversed: the number of people lacking access to electricity is set to increase in 2020, making basic electricity services unaffordable for up to 30 million people who had previously enjoyed access.’

The small silver lining is that if the situation is dealt with properly, the region could build a renewable-energy system from the ground up, rather than having to undergo the costly and complex transitions underway in developed countries. In rural areas, small-scale or off-grid renewable systems (mostly solar) are expected to play an important role, as highlighted by a recent IRENA report on decarbonisation, in increasing access. In fact, solar panels are already used in many areas. In 2019, 105 million people had access to off-grid solar solutions, up from 85 million in 2016, and almost half lived in sub-Saharan Africa, with 17 million in Kenya and eight million in Ethiopia.

Rachel Kyte is currently serving as the 14th dean of the Fletcher School at Tufts University in the USA, but her CV is long. She was previously CEO of the UN-affiliated Sustainable Energy for All (SeforALL), as well as the World Bank Group vice president and special envoy for climate change, leading the run-up to the Paris Agreement. According to her, a focus on renewables is absolutely essential, both for wider efforts to tackle climate change, with some advocating a fossil fuel lockdown to drive a climate revolution, but also for the people of sub-Saharan Africa. ‘The fossil fuel industry has said it will just extend the centralised fossil-fuel power systems that we have today to reach these people,’ she says.

 

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