Texas to probe rolling blackouts

By Wall Street Journal


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Texas officials have ordered an investigation into rolling blackouts that struck the state's electric grid recently, including whether market manipulation played a role along with harsh weather in disrupting natural-gas and electricity supplies to millions of people.

The Public Utility Commission of Texas asked the state's independent energy-market monitor, Daniel Jones, to conduct a probe to see if power generators, pipeline companies or others broke market rules. Among the questions are whether some firms faked power-plant problems to push prices higher, or were slow to restart plants that were off line.

Mr. Jones, vice president of Potomac Economics in Austin, said he could not comment until his team has completed its investigation, which could take weeks or months.

To be sure, Texas set an all-time winter power demand record one day during the storm, placing historic pressure on power providers.

Electricity-grid officials said Mr. Jones' team will look at price patterns and power-plant outages remembering that, in California's energy crisis of 2000-2001, unscrupulous power generators feigned equipment problems to drive up the price of electricity. A significant number of plants in Texas failed recently, and wholesale electricity prices briefly spiked.

The state Senate committee that oversees the state utility commission will conduct hearings on the blackouts, said its chairman, Sen. Troy Fraser, a Republican whose district includes central Texas.

The organization that runs the Texas grid, the Electric Reliability Council of Texas or Ercot, is considering whether it should require better weatherization at power plants. Trip Doggett, chief executive of the group, said it "will be working with generation owners to understand why and what can be done" to prevent the sort of breakdowns that destabilized the state's electrical network. Among other problems, the breakdowns were caused by equipment freezing and cracking.

Generation companies said they are ready to answer any questions and are confident they followed the rules. Representatives of Luminant and NRG Energy Inc., which own many power plants in Texas, said extreme cold forced outages they couldn't prevent and they got plants back up quickly.

David Knox, spokesman for NRG, said "our guys worked throughout the night" on Feb 2-3 to get the Limestone power plant back in service after a freeze-related problem broke equipment enabling the plant to send power to a substation.

Texas prides itself on a state-regulated electric grid with only limited connections to the rest of the country. The state's grid emergency began on Feb. 2, after a huge winter storm sent demand for electricity and gas soaring. Dozens of power plants that were expected to furnish power suddenly reported operating difficulties.

The state's system is supposed to reward power generators for providing electricity when it is most needed. While most power in Texas sells for negotiated prices between generation companies and retail power sellers under long-term contracts, the grid operator also buys power when more juice is needed and pays an auction price that resets every 15 minutes. When supplies are thin, prices can rise rapidly.

On Feb. 1, one day before the blackouts, Texas had raised the maximum price that the grid operator would pay for electricity to $3,000 a megawatt hour from $2,250. That's triple the price permitted in wholesale eastern markets and about 60 to 100 times a normal Texas price.

Texas had raised the maximum allowable price not because of the impending storm, but as part of the long-term arrangement with its power suppliers.

Spot market prices, which typically are under $50 this time of year, hit the $3,000-a-megawatt hour price cap repeatedly on Feb. 2 and were elevated on surrounding days, too, meaning that some generators reaped enormous profits.

The generators' costs for that power is borne by companies that sell power, other generators and consumers.

Despite the high prices, generators did not supply as much electricity as needed during the bitter cold snap. So the grid operator ordered utilities to initiate rolling blackouts with blocks of customers turned off for periods of 15 to 45 minutes. Rolling blackouts, though inconvenient, are designed to prevent an uncontrolled, catastrophic failure such as happened in the eastern U.S. in 2003.

Recently, as Texas prepared to host the Super Bowl, spot market power prices were back below $30 a megawatt hour.

Officials still are trying to figure out what caused so many power plants to report problems recently. Ercot's Mr. Doggett said generators complained about equipment failures caused by temperatures that were in the single digits as well as natural-gas shortages, meaning some couldn't get the fuel they needed to run power plants.

State officials reacted with disbelief that a region with enormous natural-gas production capability and storage fields should have been caught short.

Gas transmission companies complained that supplies were low, due to cold-related problems at gas wells, storage fields and pipelines. El Paso Corp. and Transwestern issued emergency notices that warned utilities and industrial customers not to use more gas than they'd purchased.

Texas produces about a third of the nation's gas, so its problems led to disruptions recently—to California, Arizona and New Mexico, where the governor declared a state of emergency and ordered National Guard troops to help gas crews restore service.

Ben Feilner, an engineer for the White Sands missile range in New Mexico, said his home in Alamogordo lost electric service recently. "We have winter weather with snow and ice all the time, but this isn't a normal occurrence," he said.

Low gas pressure forced two California utilities to curtail gas deliveries to about 100 big industrial customers, including some power plants. The California grid operator was able to line up power plants to replace the 1,400 megawatts of capacity in the San Diego area that was lost, a spokeswoman said.

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Mike Sangster to Headline Invest in African Energy Forum

TotalEnergies Africa Energy Strategy 2025 spotlights oil, gas, LNG, and renewables, with investments in Namibia, Congo, Mozambique, Uganda, Morocco, and South Africa, driving upstream growth, clean energy, and energy transition partnerships.

 

Key Points

An investment roadmap uniting oil, gas, LNG, and renewables to speed Africa's upstream growth and energy transition.

✅ Keynote by Mike Sangster at IAE Paris 2025.

✅ Oil, gas, LNG projects across Namibia, Congo, Mozambique, Uganda.

✅ Scaling renewables: solar, wind, green ammonia for export.

 

Mike Sangster, Senior Vice President for Africa at TotalEnergies, will play a pivotal role in the upcoming Invest in African Energy (IAE) Forum, which will take place in Paris on May 13-14, 2025. As a key figure in one of the world’s largest energy companies, Sangster's participation in the forum is expected to offer crucial insights into Africa’s evolving energy landscape, particularly in the areas of oil, gas, and renewable energy.

TotalEnergies' Role in Africa's Energy Landscape

TotalEnergies has long been a major player in Africa’s energy sector, driving development across both emerging and established markets. The company has a significant footprint in countries such as Namibia, the Republic of Congo, Libya, Mozambique, Uganda, and South Africa. TotalEnergies’ investments span both traditional oil and gas projects as well as renewable energy initiatives, reflecting its commitment to a more diversified energy future for Africa.

In Namibia, for instance, TotalEnergies is advancing its Venus-1 discovery, with plans to produce its first oil by the end of the decade. The company is also heavily involved in the Orange Basin exploration. Meanwhile, in the Republic of Congo, TotalEnergies is investing $600 million to enhance deepwater production at its Moho Nord field.

Beyond oil and gas, the company is expanding its renewable energy portfolio across the continent. This includes significant solar, wind, and hydropower projects, such as the 500 MW Sadada solar project in Libya, a 216 MW solar plant with battery storage in South Africa, and a 1 GW wind and solar project in Morocco designed to produce green ammonia for export.

The Invest in African Energy Forum

The IAE Forum, which TotalEnergies’ Sangster will headline, is an exclusive event aimed at facilitating investment between African energy markets and global investors, including discussions on COVID-19 funding for electricity access mechanisms that emerged, and their relevance to current capital flows. With a focus on fostering partnerships and discussions about the future of energy in Africa, the event will bring together industry experts, project developers, investors, and policymakers for two days of intensive engagement.

The forum will also serve as a crucial platform for sharing perspectives on the role of private investment, as outlined in the IEA investment outlook for Africa's power systems, in Africa’s energy future, strategies for unlocking new upstream opportunities, and the transition to a more sustainable energy system. This makes Sangster's participation, as someone directly involved in both conventional and renewable energy projects across the continent, particularly significant.

TotalEnergies' Diversified Strategy in Africa

Sangster’s keynote address and participation in an exclusive fireside chat will provide an in-depth look into TotalEnergies’ strategy for Africa. His insights will touch upon the company's ongoing projects in the oil and gas sectors, as well as its renewable energy investments. TotalEnergies has committed to making its portfolio more sustainable, underscored by its recent VSB acquisition to expand renewables capabilities, while continuing to be a leader in the energy transition.

One of the company’s notable projects is the Mozambique LNG initiative, a $20 billion venture aimed at supplying liquefied natural gas to international markets. Additionally, TotalEnergies is gearing up for the first oil from its Tilenga field in Uganda, which will be transported through the East African Crude Oil Pipeline (EACOP), the longest heated crude oil pipeline in the world.

In South Africa, TotalEnergies is constructing one of the largest renewable energy projects, a 216 MW solar power plant with integrated battery storage. This project is expected to significantly contribute to the country’s clean energy ambitions. Furthermore, in Morocco, TotalEnergies is developing a major wind and solar facility that will produce green ammonia, aligning with its broader strategy to provide solutions for Europe’s energy needs.

Africa’s Energy Transition

The forum’s timing could not be more critical, given the pressing need for an energy transition in Africa. While the continent remains heavily reliant on fossil fuels for its energy needs, there is growing momentum toward incorporating renewable energy sources, a point reinforced by the IRENA renewables report on decarbonisation and quality of life, which highlights the transformative potential. Africa’s vast natural resources, combined with global investments and partnerships, position the continent as a key player in the global shift toward sustainable energy.

However, Africa faces unique challenges in transitioning to renewable energy, reflecting a broader Sub-Saharan electricity challenge that also presents opportunity, across many markets. These challenges include a lack of infrastructure, financial constraints, and the need for increased political stability in certain regions. The IAE Forum provides an opportunity to address these barriers, with industry leaders like Sangster offering solutions based on real-world experiences and investments.

As the energy sector continues to evolve globally, and even if electricity systems are unlikely to go fully green this decade according to some outlooks, Africa's potential remains vast. The continent’s diverse energy resources, from oil and gas to renewables, offer a unique opportunity to build a more sustainable and resilient energy future. The Invest in African Energy Forum serves as an important platform for global stakeholders to collaborate, learn, and invest in the energy transformation taking place across the continent.

Mike Sangster’s insights at the forum will undoubtedly shape discussions on how companies like TotalEnergies are navigating the intersection of universal electricity access goals, sustainability, and economic growth in Africa. With Africa’s energy needs expected to increase exponentially in the coming decades, ensuring that these needs are met sustainably and equitably will be a priority for both policymakers and private investors.

As the global energy landscape continues to shift, the Invest in African Energy Forum provides a critical space for shaping the future of Africa’s energy sector, offering invaluable opportunities for investment, innovation, and collaboration.

 

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Ontario Businesses To See Full Impact of 2021 Electricity Rate Reductions

Ontario Comprehensive Electricity Plan delivers Global Adjustment reductions for industrial and commercial non-RPP customers, lowering electricity rates, shifting renewable energy costs, and enhancing competitiveness across Ontario businesses in 2022, with additional 4 percent savings.

 

Key Points

Ontario's plan lowers Global Adjustment by shifting renewable costs, cutting industrial and commercial bills 15-17%.

✅ Shifts above-market non-hydro renewable costs to the Province

✅ Reduces GA for industrial and commercial non-RPP customers

✅ Additional 4% savings on 2022 bills after GA deferral

 

As of January 1, 2022, industrial and commercial electricity customers will benefit from the full savings introduced through the Ontario government’s Comprehensive Electricity Plan, which supports stable electricity pricing for industrial and commercial companies, announced in Budget 2020, and first implemented in January 2021. This year customers could see an additional four percent savings compared to their bills last year, bringing the full savings from the Comprehensive Electricity Plan to between 15 and 17 per cent, making Ontario a more competitive place to do business.

“Our Comprehensive Electricity Plan has helped reverse the trend of skyrocketing electricity prices that drove jobs out of Ontario,” said Todd Smith, Minister of Energy. “Over 50,000 customers are benefiting from our government’s plan which has reduced electricity rates on clean and reliable power, allowing them to focus on reinvesting in their operations and creating jobs here at home.”

Starting on January 1, 2021, the Comprehensive Electricity Plan reduced overall Global Adjustment (GA) costs for industrial and commercial customers who do not participate in the Regulated Price Plan (RPP) by shifting the forecast above-market costs of non-hydro renewable energy, such as wind, solar and bioenergy, from the rate base to the Province, alongside energy-efficiency programs that complement demand reduction efforts.

“Since taking office, our government has listened to job creators and worked to lower the costs of doing business in the province. Through these significant reductions in electricity prices through the Comprehensive Electricity Plan, customers all across Ontario will benefit from significant savings in their business operations in 2022,” said Vic Fedeli, Minister of Economic Development, Job Creation and Trade. “By continuing to reduce electricity costs, lowering taxes, and cutting red tape our government has reduced the cost of doing business in Ontario by nearly $7 billion annually to ensure that we remain competitive, innovative and poised for economic recovery.”

As part of its COVID response, including electricity relief for families and small businesses, Ontario had deferred a portion of GA between April and June 2020 for industrial and non-RPP commercial customers, with more than 50,000 customers benefiting. Those same businesses paid back these deferred GA costs over 12 months, between January 2021 and December 2021, while the province prepared to extend disconnect moratoriums for residential customers.

During the pandemic, residential electricity use rose even as overall consumption dropped, underscoring shifts in load patterns.

Now that the GA deferral repayment period is over, industrial and non-RPP commercial customers will benefit from the full cost reductions provided to them by the Comprehensive Electricity Plan, alongside temporary off-peak rate relief that supported families and small businesses. This means that, beginning January 1, 2022, these businesses could see an additional four per cent savings on their bills compared to 2021, as new ultra-low overnight pricing options emerge depending on their location and consumption.

 

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Hydro-Quebec adopts a corporate structure designed to optimize the energy transition

Hydro-Québec Unified Corporate Structure advances the energy transition through integrated planning, strategy, infrastructure delivery, and customer operations, aligning generation, transmission, and distribution while ensuring non-discriminatory grid access and agile governance across assets and behind-the-meter technologies.

 

Key Points

A cross-functional model aligning strategy, planning, and operations to accelerate Quebec's low-carbon transition.

✅ Four groups: strategy, planning, infrastructure, operations.

✅ Ensures non-discriminatory transmission access compliance.

✅ No staff reductions; staged implementation from Feb 28.

 

As Hydro-Que9bec prepares to play a key role in the transition to a low-carbon economy, the complexity of the work to be done in the coming decade requires that it develop a global vision of its operations and assets, from the drop of water entering its turbines to the behind-the-meter technologies marketed by its subsidiary Hilo. This has prompted the company to implement a new corporate structure that will maximize cooperation and agility, including employee-led pandemic support that builds community trust, making it possible to bring about the energy transition efficiently with a view to supporting the realization of Quebecers’ collective aspirations.

Toward a single, unified Hydro

Hydro-Québec’s core mission revolves around four major functions that make up the company’s value chain, alongside policy choices like peak-rate relief during emergencies. These functions consist of:

  1. Developing corporate strategies based on current and future challenges and business opportunities
  2. Planning energy needs and effectively allocating financial capital, factoring in pandemic-related revenue impacts on demand and investment timing
  3. Designing and building the energy system’s multiple components
  4. Operating assets in an integrated fashion and providing the best customer experience by addressing customer choice and flexibility expectations across segments.

Accordingly, Hydro-Québec will henceforth comprise four groups respectively in charge of strategy and development; integrated energy needs planning; infrastructure and the energy system; and operations and customer experience, including billing accuracy concerns that can influence satisfaction. To enable the company to carry out its mission, these groups will be able to count on the support of other groups responsible for corporate functions.

Across Canada, leadership changes at other utilities highlight the need to rebuild ties with governments and investors, as seen with Hydro One's new CEO in Ontario.

“For over 20 years, Hydro-Québec has been operating in a vertical structure based on its main activities, namely power generation, transmission and distribution. This approach must now give way to one that provides a cross-functional perspective allowing us to take informed decisions in light of all our needs, as well as those of our customers and the society we have the privilege to serve,” explained Hydro-Québec’s President and Chief Executive Officer, Sophie Brochu.

In terms of gender parity, the management team continues to include several men and women, thus ensuring a diversity of viewpoints.

Hydro-Québec’s new structure complies with the regulatory requirements of the North American power markets, in particular with regard to the need to provide third parties with non-discriminatory access to the company’s transmission system. The frameworks in place ensure that certain functions remain separate and help coordinate responses to operational events such as urban distribution outages that challenge continuity of service.

These changes, which will be implemented gradually as of Monday, February 28, do not aim to achieve any staff reductions.

 

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How Ukraine Unplugged from Russia and Joined Europe's Power Grid with Unprecedented Speed

Ukraine-ENTSO-E Grid Synchronization links Ukraine and Moldova to the European grid via secure interconnection, matching frequency for stability, resilience, and energy security, enabling cross-border support, islanding recovery, and coordinated load balancing during wartime disruptions.

 

Key Points

Rapid alignment of Ukraine and Moldova into the European grid to enable secure interconnection and system stability.

✅ Matches 50 Hz frequency across interconnected systems

✅ Enables cross-border support and electricity trading

✅ Improves resilience, stability, and energy security

 

On February 24 Ukraine’s electric grid operator disconnected the country’s power system from the larger Russian-operated network to which it had always been linked. The long-planned disconnection was meant to be a 72-hour trial proving that Ukraine could operate on its own and to protect electricity supply before winter as contingencies were tested. The test was a requirement for eventually linking with the European grid, which Ukraine had been working toward since 2017. But four hours after the exercise started, Russia invaded.

Ukraine’s connection to Europe—which was not supposed to occur until 2023—became urgent, and engineers aimed to safely achieve it in just a matter of weeks. On March 16 they reached the key milestone of synchronizing the two systems. It was “a year’s work in two weeks,” according to a statement by Kadri Simson, the European Union commissioner for energy. That is unusual in this field. “For [power grid operators] to move this quickly and with such agility is unprecedented,” says Paul Deane, an energy policy researcher at the University College Cork in Ireland. “No power system has ever synchronized this quickly before.”

Ukraine initiated the process of joining Europe’s grid in 2005 and began working toward that goal in earnest in 2017, as did Moldova. It was part of an ongoing effort to align with Europe, as seen in the Baltic states’ disconnection from the Russian grid, and decrease reliance on Russia, which had repeatedly threatened Ukraine’s sovereignty. “Ukraine simply wanted to decouple from Russian dominance in every sense of the word, and the grid is part of that,” says Suriya Jayanti, an Eastern European policy expert and former U.S. diplomat who served as energy chief at the U.S. embassy in Kyiv from 2018 to 2020.

After the late February trial period, Ukrenergo, the Ukrainian grid operator, had intended to temporarily rejoin the system that powers Russia and Belarus. But the Russian invasion made that untenable. “That left Ukraine in isolation mode, which would be incredibly dangerous from a power supply perspective,” Jayanti says. “It means that there’s nowhere for Ukraine to import electricity from. It’s an orphan.” That was a particularly precarious situation given Russian attacks on key energy infrastructure such as the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant and ongoing strikes on Ukraine’s power grid that posed continuing risks. (According to Jayanti, Ukraine’s grid was ultimately able to run alone for as long as it did because power demand dropped by about a third as Ukrainians fled the country.)

Three days after the invasion, Ukrenergo sent a letter to the European Network of Transmission System Operators for Electricity (ENTSO-E) requesting authorization to connect to the European grid early. Moldelectrica, the Moldovan operator, made the same request the following day. While European operators wanted to support Ukraine, they had to protect their own grids, amid renewed focus on protecting the U.S. power grid from Russian hacking, so the emergency connection process had to be done carefully. “Utilities and system operators are notoriously risk-averse because the job is to keep the lights on, to keep everyone safe,” says Laura Mehigan, an energy researcher at University College Cork.

An electric grid is a network of power-generating sources and transmission infrastructure that produces electricity and carries it from places such as power plants, wind farms and solar arrays to houses, hospitals and public transit systems. “You can’t just experiment with a power system and hope that it works,” Deane says. Getting power where it is it needed when it is needed is an intricate process, and there is little room for error, as incidents involving Russian hackers targeting U.S. utilities have highlighted for operators worldwide.

Crucial to this mission is grid interconnection. Linked systems can share electricity across vast areas, often using HVDC technology, so that a surplus of energy generated in one location can meet demand in another. “More interconnection means we can move power around more quickly, more efficiently, more cost effectively and take advantage of low-carbon or zero-carbon power sources,” says James Glynn, a senior research scholar at the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University. But connecting these massive networks with many moving parts is no small order.

One of the primary challenges of interconnecting grids is synchronizing them, which is what Ukrenergo, Moldelectrica and ENTSO-E accomplished last week. Synchronization is essential for sharing electricity. The task involves aligning the frequencies of every energy-generation facility in the connecting systems. Frequency is like the heartbeat of the electric grid. Across Europe, energy-generating turbines spin 50 times per second in near-perfect unison, and when disputes disrupt that balance, slow clocks across Europe can result, reminding operators of the stakes. For Ukraine and Moldova to join in, their systems had to be adjusted to match that rhythm. “We can’t stop the power system for an hour and then try to synchronize,” Deane says. “This has to be done while the system is operating.” It is like jumping onto a moving train or a spinning ride at the playground: the train or ride is not stopping, so you had better time the jump perfectly.

 

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Rio Tinto Completes Largest Off-Grid Solar Plant in Canada's Northwest Territories

Rio Tinto Off-Grid Solar Power Plant showcases renewable energy at the Diavik Diamond Mine in Canada's Northwest Territories, cutting diesel use, lowering carbon emissions, and boosting remote mining resilience with advanced photovoltaic technology.

 

Key Points

A remote solar PV plant at Diavik mine supplying clean power while cutting diesel use, carbon emissions, and costs.

✅ Largest off-grid solar in Northwest Territories

✅ Replaces diesel generators during peak solar hours

✅ Enhances sustainability and lowers operating costs

 

In a significant step towards sustainable mining practices, Rio Tinto has completed the largest off-grid solar power plant in Canada’s Northwest Territories. This groundbreaking achievement not only highlights the company's commitment to renewable energy, as Canada nears 5 GW of solar capacity nationwide, but also sets a new standard for the mining industry in remote and off-grid locations.

Located in the remote Diavik Diamond Mine, approximately 220 kilometers south of the Arctic Circle, Rio Tinto's off-grid solar power plant represents a technological feat in harnessing renewable energy in challenging environments. The plant is designed to reduce reliance on diesel fuel, traditionally used to power the mine's operations, and mitigate carbon emissions associated with mining activities.

The decision to build the solar power plant aligns with Rio Tinto's broader sustainability goals and commitment to reducing its environmental footprint. By integrating renewable energy sources like solar power, a strategy that renewable developers say leads to better, more resilient projects, the company aims to enhance energy efficiency, lower operational costs, and contribute to global efforts to combat climate change.

The Diavik Diamond Mine, jointly owned by Rio Tinto and Dominion Diamond Mines, operates in a remote region where access to traditional energy infrastructure is limited, and where, despite lagging solar demand in Canada, off-grid solutions are increasingly vital for reliability. Historically, diesel generators have been the primary source of power for the mine's operations, posing logistical challenges and environmental impacts due to fuel transportation and combustion.

Rio Tinto's investment in the off-grid solar power plant addresses these challenges by leveraging abundant sunlight in the Northwest Territories to generate clean electricity directly at the mine site. The solar array, equipped with advanced photovoltaic technology, which mirrors deployments such as Arvato's first solar plant in other sectors, is capable of producing a significant portion of the mine's electricity needs during peak solar hours, reducing reliance on diesel generators and lowering overall carbon emissions.

Moreover, the completion of the largest off-grid solar power plant in Canada's Northwest Territories underscores the feasibility and scalability of renewable energy solutions, from rooftop arrays like Edmonton's largest rooftop solar to off-grid systems in remote and resource-intensive industries like mining. The success of this project serves as a model for other mining companies seeking to enhance sustainability practices and operational resilience in challenging geographical locations.

Beyond environmental benefits, Rio Tinto's initiative is expected to have positive economic and social impacts on the local community. By reducing diesel consumption, the company mitigates air pollution and noise levels associated with mining operations, improving environmental quality and contributing to the well-being of nearby residents and wildlife.

Looking ahead, Rio Tinto's investment in renewable energy at the Diavik Diamond Mine sets a precedent for responsible resource development and sustainable mining practices in Canada, where solar growth in Alberta is accelerating, and globally. As the mining industry continues to evolve, integrating renewable energy solutions like off-grid solar power plants will play a crucial role in achieving long-term environmental sustainability and operational efficiency.

In conclusion, Rio Tinto's completion of the largest off-grid solar power plant in Canada's Northwest Territories marks a significant milestone in the mining industry's transition towards renewable energy. By harnessing solar power to reduce reliance on diesel generators, the company not only improves operational efficiency and environmental stewardship but also adds to momentum from corporate power purchase agreements like RBC's Alberta solar deal, setting a positive example for sustainable development in remote regions. As global demand for responsible mining practices grows, initiatives like Rio Tinto's off-grid solar project demonstrate the potential of renewable energy to drive positive change in resource-intensive industries.

 

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When will the US get 1 GW of offshore wind on the grid?

U.S. Offshore Wind Capacity is set to exceed 1 GW by 2024, driven by BOEM approvals, federal leases, and resilient supply chains, with eastern states scaling renewable energy, turbines, and content despite COVID-19 disruptions.

 

Key Points

Projected gigawatt-scale offshore wind growth enabled by BOEM approvals, federal leases, and East Coast state demand.

✅ 17+ GW leased; only 1,870 MW in announced first phases.

✅ BOEM approvals are critical to reach >1 GW by 2024.

✅ Local supply chains mitigate COVID-19 impacts and lower costs.

 

Offshore wind in the U.S. will exceed 1 GW of capacity by 2024 and add more than 1 GW annually by 2027, a trajectory consistent with U.S. offshore wind power trends, according to a report released last week by Navigant Research.

The report calculated over 17 GW of offshore state and federal leases for wind production, reflecting forecasts that $1 trillion offshore wind market growth is possible. However, the owners of those leases have only announced first phase plans for 1,870 MW of capacity, leaving much of the projects in early stages with significant room to grow, according to senior research analyst Jesse Broehl.

The Business Network for Offshore Wind (BNOW) believes it is possible to hit 1 GW by 2023-24, according to CEO Liz Burdock. While the economy has taken a hit from the coronavirus pandemic, she said the offshore wind industry can continue growing as "the supply chain from Asia and Europe regains speed this summer, and the administration starts clearing" plans of construction.

BNOW is concerned with the economic hardship imposed on secondary and tertiary U.S. suppliers due to the global spread of COVID-19.

Offshore wind has been touted by many eastern states and governors as an opportunity to create jobs, with U.S. wind employment expected to expand, according to industry forecasts. Analysts see the growing momentum of projects as a way to further lower costs by creating a local supply chain, which could be jeopardized by a long-term shutdown and recession.

"The federal government must act now — today, not in December — and approve project construction and operation plans," a recent BNOW report said. Approving any of the seven projects before BOEM, which has recently received new lease requests, currently would allow small businesses to get to work "following the containment of the coronavirus," but approval of the projects next year "may be too late to keep them solvent."

The prospects for maintaining momentum in the industry falls largely to the Department of the Interior's Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM). The industry cannot hit the 1 GW milestone without project approvals by BOEM, which is revising processes to analyze federal permit applications in the context of "greater build out of offshore wind capacity," according to its website.

"It is heavily dependent on the project approval success," Burdock told Utility Dive.

Currently, seven projects are awaiting determinations from BOEM on their construction operation plans in Massachusetts, New York, where a major offshore wind farm was recently approved, New Jersey and Maryland, with more to be added soon, a BNOW spokesperson told Utility Dive.

To date, only one project has received BOEM approval for development in federal waters, a 12 MW pilot by Dominion Energy and Ørsted in Virginia. The two-turbine project is a stepping stone to a commercial-scale 2.6 GW project the companies say could begin installation as soon as 2024, and gave the developers experience with the permitting process.

In the U.S., developers have the capacity to develop 16.9 GW of offshore wind in federal U.S. lease areas, even as wind power's share of the electricity mix surges nationwide, Broehl told Utility Dive, but much of that is in early stages. The Navigant report did not address any impacts of coronavirus on offshore wind, he said.

Although Massachusetts has legislation in place to require utilities to purchase 1.6 GW of wind power by 2026, and several other projects are in early development stages, Navigant expects the first large offshore wind projects in the U.S. (exceeding 200 MW) will come online in 2022 or later, and the first projects with 400 MW or more capacity are likely to be built by 2024-2025, and lessons from the U.K.'s experience could help accelerate timelines. The U.S. would add about 1.2 GW in 2027, Broehl said.

The federal leasing activities along with the involvement from Eastern states and utilities "virtually guarantees that a large offshore wind market is going to take off in the U.S.," Broehl said.

 

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