Austin Energy Leverages World Energy Exchange to Procure Three-Year On-Call Electricity Supply

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World Energy Solutions announces that Austin Energy has completed a power procurement using the World Energy Exchange to purchase 664.8 million kilowatt hours of on-call electricity supply. Austin Energy is a community-owned electric utility and a department of the city of Austin, TX. The utility plans to retire its 358 megawatt Holly gas-fired power plant in 2007 and used the World Energy Exchange to find replacement supply for 2008-2010.

Historically, Austin Energy has used a paper-based request-for-proposal process to purchase electricity supply, which often required several months to complete. The time delay in this process has a negative effect in achieving a lower price because suppliers build in "risk premiums" for potential changes in market conditions that can and do occur between the time a price offer for an energy commodity is made and subsequently contracted.

One of the utility's objectives in leveraging the World Energy Exchange was to streamline the bid to award process. Because the time between an auction's close and contract award is measured in minutes as opposed to days, World Energy believes the need for supplier risk premiums is reduced, thus resulting in lower prices.

Another factor in Austin Energy's decision to use the Exchange to purchase power was the unbiased and transparent audit trail provided by the online technology, which World Energy believes both increases the number of competing suppliers and ensures fair and open competition.

Austin Energy has now used the World Energy Exchange for two online energy auctions. In September of 2006, the utility conducted a series of eight auctions on the Exchange for up to 150 MW of 5x16 replacement supply for May through September weekdays in 2008-2010. In the latest round of auctions held in November, Austin Energy used the Exchange to run four bidding scenarios to determine which scenario would result in the lowest price. At auction close, the three-year contract period scenario generated the lowest price.

Phil Adams, World Energy COO, said, "Over the past few years, we have been watching the procurement trends at the wholesale level. Austin Energy is among a growing number of utilities that are leveraging auctions to buy supply. We see serving utilities and municipalities as a logical extension of our award-winning and commercially proven retail energy exchange. To serve our initial utility clients, we have optimized our World Energy Exchange for wholesale transactions - enabling both buying and selling of energy, creating a version clients can self-administer, and adding a whole cadre of new suppliers - both physical and financial.

"With our second wholesale auction success at Austin Energy, we are poised to roll out this solution to other utilities and municipalities interested in securing the better pricing in the market in a way that meets PUC and Sarbanes-Oxley compliance requirements."

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Four Facts about Covid and U.S. Electricity Consumption

COVID-19 Impact on U.S. Electricity Consumption shows commercial and industrial demand dropped as residential use rose, with flattened peak loads, weekday-weekend convergence, Texas hourly data, and energy demand as a real-time economic indicator.

 

Key Points

It reduced commercial and industrial demand while raising residential use, shifting peaks and weekday patterns.

✅ Commercial electricity down 12%; industrial down 14% in Q2 2020

✅ Residential use up 10% amid work-from-home and lockdowns

✅ Peaks flattened; weekday-weekend loads converged in Texas

 

This is an important turning point for the United States. We have a long road ahead. But one of the reasons I’m optimistic about Biden-Harris is that we will once again have an administration that believes in science.

To embrace this return to science, I want to write today about a fascinating new working paper by Tufts economist Steve Cicala.

Professor Cicala has been studying the effect of Covid on electricity consumption since back in March, when the Wall Street Journal picked up his work documenting an 18% decrease in electricity consumption in Italy.

The new work, focused on the United States, is particularly compelling because it uses data that allows him to distinguish between residential, commercial, and industrial sectors, against a backdrop of declining U.S. electricity sales over recent years.

Without further ado, here are four facts he uncovers about Covid and U.S. electricity demand during COVID-19 and consumption.

 

Fact #1: Firms Are Using Less
U.S. commercial electricity consumption fell 12% during the second quarter of 2020. U.S. industrial electricity consumption fell 14% over the same period.

This makes sense. The second quarter was by some measures, the worst quarter for the U.S. economy in over 145 years!

Economic activity shrank. Schools closed. Offices closed. Factories closed. Restaurants closed. Malls closed. Even health care offices closed as patients delayed going to the dentist and other routine care. All this means less heating and cooling, less lighting, less refrigeration, less power for computers and other office equipment, less everything.

The decrease in the industrial sector is a little more surprising. My impression had been that the industrial sector had not fallen as far as commercial, but amid broader disruptions in coal and nuclear power that strained parts of the energy economy, the patterns for both sectors are quite similar with the decline peaking in May and then partially rebounding by July. The paper also shows that areas with higher unemployment rates experienced larger declines in both sectors.

 

Fact #2: Households Are Using More
While firms are using less, households are using more. U.S. residential electricity consumption increased 10% during the second quarter of 2020. Consumption surged during March, April, and May, a reflection of the lockdown lifestyle many adopted, and then leveled off in June and July – with much less of the rebound observed on the commercial/industrial side.

This pattern makes sense, too. In Professor Cicala’s words, “people are spending an inordinate amount of time at home”. Many of us switched over to working from home almost immediately, and haven’t looked back. This means more air conditioning, more running the dishwasher, more CNN (especially last week), more Zoom, and so on.

The paper also examines the correlates of the decline. Areas in the U.S. where more people can work from home experienced larger increases. Unemployment rates, however, are almost completely uncorrelated with the increase.

 

Fact #3: Firms are Less Peaky
The paper next turns to a novel dataset from Texas, where Texas grid reliability is under active discussion, that makes it possible to measure hourly electricity consumption by sector.

As the figure above illustrates, the biggest declines in commercial/industrial electricity consumption have occurred Monday through Friday between 9AM and 5PM.

The dashed line shows the pattern during 2019. Notice the large spikes in electricity consumption during business hours. The solid line shows the pattern during 2020. Much smaller spikes during business hours.

 

Fact #4: Everyday is Like Sunday
Finally, we have what I would like to nominate as the “Energy Figure of the Year”.

Again, start with the pattern for 2019, reflected by the dashed line. Prior to Covid, Texas households used a lot more electricity on Saturdays and Sundays.

Then along comes Covid, and turned every day into the weekend. Residential electricity consumption in Texas during business hours Monday-Friday is up 16%(!).

In the pattern for 2020, it isn’t easy to distinguish weekends from weekdays. If you feel like weekdays and weekends are becoming a big blur – you are not alone.

 

Conclusion
Researchers are increasingly thinking about electricity consumption as a real-time indicator of economic activity, even as flat electricity demand complicates utility planning and investment. This is an intriguing idea, but Professor Cicala’s new paper shows that it is important to look sector-by-sector.

While commercial and industrial consumption indeed seem to measure the strength of an economy, residential consumption has been sharply countercylical – increasing exactly when people are not at work and not at school.

These large changes in behavior are specific to the pandemic. Still, with the increased blurring of home and non-home activities we may look back on 2020 as a key turning point in how we think about these three sectors of the economy.

More broadly, Professor Cicala’s paper highlights the value of social science research. We need facts, data, and yes, science, if we are to understand the economy and craft effective policies on energy insecurity and shut-offs as well.

 

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Scientists Built a Genius Device That Generates Electricity 'Out of Thin Air'

Air-gen Protein Nanowire Generator delivers clean energy by harvesting ambient humidity via Geobacter-derived conductive nanowires, generating continuous hydrovoltaic electricity through moisture gradients, electrodes, and proton diffusion for sustainable, low-waste power in diverse climates.

 

Key Points

A device using Geobacter protein nanowires to harvest humidity, producing continuous DC power via proton diffusion.

✅ 7 micrometer film between electrodes adsorbs water vapor.

✅ Output: ~0.5 V, 17 uA/cm2; stack units to scale power.

✅ Geobacter optimized via engineered E. coli for mass nanowires.

 

They found it buried in the muddy shores of the Potomac River more than three decades ago: a strange "sediment organism" that could do things nobody had ever seen before in bacteria.

This unusual microbe, belonging to the Geobacter genus, was first noted for its ability to produce magnetite in the absence of oxygen, but with time scientists found it could make other things too, like bacterial nanowires that conduct electricity.

For years, researchers have been trying to figure out ways to usefully exploit that natural gift, and they might have just hit pay-dirt with a device they're calling the Air-gen. According to the team, their device can create electricity out of… well, almost nothing, similar to power from falling snow reported elsewhere.

"We are literally making electricity out of thin air," says electrical engineer Jun Yao from the University of Massachusetts Amherst. "The Air-gen generates clean energy 24/7."

The claim may sound like an overstatement, but a new study by Yao and his team describes how the air-powered generator can indeed create electricity with nothing but the presence of air around it. It's all thanks to the electrically conductive protein nanowires produced by Geobacter (G. sulfurreducens, in this instance).

The Air-gen consists of a thin film of the protein nanowires measuring just 7 micrometres thick, positioned between two electrodes, referencing advances in near light-speed conduction in materials science, but also exposed to the air.

Because of that exposure, the nanowire film is able to adsorb water vapour that exists in the atmosphere, offering a contrast to legacy hydropower models, enabling the device to generate a continuous electrical current conducted between the two electrodes.

The team says the charge is likely created by a moisture gradient that creates a diffusion of protons in the nanowire material.

"This charge diffusion is expected to induce a counterbalancing electrical field or potential analogous to the resting membrane potential in biological systems," the authors explain in their study.

"A maintained moisture gradient, which is fundamentally different to anything seen in previous systems, explains the continuous voltage output from our nanowire device."

The discovery was made almost by accident, when Yao noticed devices he was experimenting with were conducting electricity seemingly all by themselves.

"I saw that when the nanowires were contacted with electrodes in a specific way the devices generated a current," Yao says.

"I found that exposure to atmospheric humidity was essential and that protein nanowires adsorbed water, producing a voltage gradient across the device."

Previous research has demonstrated hydrovoltaic power generation using other kinds of nanomaterials – such as graphene-based systems now under study – but those attempts have largely produced only short bursts of electricity, lasting perhaps only seconds.

By contrast, the Air-gen produces a sustained voltage of around 0.5 volts, with a current density of about 17 microamperes per square centimetre, and complementary fuel cell solutions can help keep batteries energized, with a current density of about 17 microamperes per square centimetre. That's not much energy, but the team says that connecting multiple devices could generate enough power to charge small devices like smartphones and other personal electronics – concepts akin to virtual power plants that aggregate distributed resources – all with no waste, and using nothing but ambient humidity (even in regions as dry as the Sahara Desert).

"The ultimate goal is to make large-scale systems," Yao says, explaining that future efforts could use the technology to power homes via nanowire incorporated into wall paint, supported by energy storage for microgrids to balance supply and demand.

"Once we get to an industrial scale for wire production, I fully expect that we can make large systems that will make a major contribution to sustainable energy production."

If there is a hold-up to realising this seemingly incredible potential, it's the limited amount of nanowire G. sulfurreducens produces.

Related research by one of the team – microbiologist Derek Lovley, who first identified Geobacter microbes back in the 1980s – could have a fix for that: genetically engineering other bugs, like E. coli, to perform the same trick in massive supplies.

"We turned E. coli into a protein nanowire factory," Lovley says.

"With this new scalable process, protein nanowire supply will no longer be a bottleneck to developing these applications."

 

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Berlin Geothermal Plant in El Salvador Set to Launch This Year

El Salvador Geothermal Expansion boosts renewable energy with a 7 MW Berlin binary ORC plant, upgrades at Ahuachapan, and pipeline projects, strengthening clean power capacity, grid reliability, and sustainable growth in Central America.

 

Key Points

A national push adding binary-cycle capacity at Berlin and Ahuachapan, boosting geothermal supply and advancing sites.

✅ 7 MW Berlin binary ORC plant entering service.

✅ Ahuachapan upgrade adds 2 MW, total geothermal 204 MW.

✅ Next: Chinameca, San Miguel, San Vicente, World Bank backed.

 

El Salvador is set to expand its renewable energy capacity with the inauguration of the 7-MW Berlin binary geothermal power plant, slated to go online later this year. This new addition marks a significant milestone in the country’s geothermal energy development, highlighting its commitment to sustainable energy solutions. The plant, which has already been installed and is currently undergoing testing, is expected to boost the nation’s geothermal capacity, contributing to its growing renewable energy portfolio.

The Role of Geothermal Energy in El Salvador’s Energy Mix

Geothermal energy plays a pivotal role in El Salvador's energy landscape. With the combined output from the Ahuachapan and Berlin geothermal plants, geothermal energy now accounts for about 21% of the country's net electricity supply. This makes geothermal the second-largest source of energy generation in El Salvador, underscoring its importance as a reliable and sustainable energy resource alongside emerging options like advanced nuclear microreactor technologies in the broader low-carbon mix.

In addition to the Berlin plant, El Salvador has made significant improvements to its Ahuachapan geothermal power plant. Recent upgrades have increased its generation capacity by 2 MW, further enhancing the country’s geothermal energy output. Together, the Ahuachapan and Berlin plants bring the total installed geothermal capacity to 204 MW, positioning El Salvador as a regional leader in geothermal energy development.

The Berlin Binary Geothermal Plant: A Technological Milestone

The Berlin binary geothermal power plant is especially noteworthy for several reasons. It is the first geothermal power plant to be constructed in El Salvador since 2007, marking a significant step in the country's ongoing efforts to expand its renewable energy infrastructure while reinforcing attention to risk management in light of Hawaii geothermal safety concerns reported elsewhere. The plant utilizes a binary cycle geothermal system, which is known for its efficiency in extracting energy from lower temperature geothermal resources, making it an ideal solution for regions like Berlin, where geothermal resources are abundant but at lower temperatures.

The plant was built by Turboden, an Italian company specializing in organic Rankine cycle (ORC) technology. The binary cycle system operates by transferring heat from the geothermal fluid to a secondary fluid, which then drives a turbine to generate electricity. This system allows for the efficient use of geothermal resources that might otherwise be too low in temperature for traditional geothermal plants, enabling pairing with thermal storage demonstration solutions to optimize output.

Future Geothermal Developments in El Salvador

El Salvador is not stopping with the Berlin geothermal plant. The country is actively working on other geothermal projects, including those in Chinameca, San Miguel, and San Vicente. These developments are expected to add 50 MW of additional capacity in their first phase, reflecting a broader shift as countries pursue hydrogen-ready power plants to reduce emissions, with a second phase, supported by the World Bank, planned to add another 100 MW.

The Chinameca, San Miguel, and San Vicente projects represent the next wave of geothermal development in El Salvador. When completed, these plants will significantly increase the country’s geothermal capacity, further diversifying its energy mix and reducing reliance on fossil fuels, and will require ongoing grid upgrades, a task complicated elsewhere by Germany grid expansion challenges highlighted in Europe.

International Support and Collaboration

El Salvador’s geothermal development efforts are supported by various international partners, including the World Bank, which has been instrumental in financing the expansion of geothermal projects, as utilities such as SaskPower geothermal plans in Canada explore comparable pathways. This collaboration highlights the global recognition of El Salvador’s potential in geothermal energy and its efforts to position itself as a hub for geothermal energy development in Central America.

Additionally, the country’s expertise in geothermal energy, especially in binary cycle technology, has attracted international attention. El Salvador’s progress in the geothermal sector could serve as a model for other countries in the region that are looking to harness their geothermal resources to reduce energy costs and promote sustainable energy development.

The upcoming launch of the Berlin binary geothermal power plant is a testament to El Salvador’s commitment to sustainable energy. As the country continues to expand its geothermal capacity, it is positioning itself as a leader in renewable energy in the region. The binary cycle technology employed at the Berlin plant not only enhances energy efficiency but also demonstrates El Salvador’s ability to adapt and innovate within the renewable energy sector.

With the continued development of projects in Chinameca, San Miguel, and San Vicente, and ongoing international collaboration, El Salvador’s geothermal energy sector is set to play a crucial role in the country’s energy future. As global demand for clean energy grows, exemplified by U.S. solar capacity additions this year, El Salvador’s investments in geothermal energy are helping to build a more sustainable, resilient, and energy-independent future.

 

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Smaller, cheaper, safer: Next-gen nuclear power, explained

MARVEL microreactor debuts at Idaho National Laboratory as a 100 kW, liquid-metal-cooled, zero-emissions generator powering a nuclear microgrid, integrating wind and solar for firm, clean energy in advanced nuclear applications research.

 

Key Points

A 100 kW, liquid-metal-cooled INL reactor powering a nuclear microgrid and showcasing zero-emissions clean energy.

✅ 100 kW liquid-metal-cooled microreactor at INL

✅ Powers first nuclear microgrid for applications testing

✅ Integrates with wind and solar for firm clean power

 

Inside the Transient Reactor Test Facility, a towering, windowless gray block surrounded by barbed wire, researchers are about to embark on a mission to solve one of humanity’s greatest problems with a tiny device.

Next year, they will begin construction on the MARVEL reactor. MARVEL stands for Microreactor Applications Research Validation and EvaLuation. It’s a first-of-a-kind nuclear power generator with a mini-reactor design that is cooled with liquid metal and produces 100 kilowatts of energy. By 2024, researchers expect MARVEL to be the zero-emissions engine of the world’s first nuclear microgrid at Idaho National Laboratory (INL).

“Micro” and “tiny,” of course, are relative. MARVEL stands 15 feet tall, weighs 2,000 pounds, and can fit in a semi-truck trailer. But it's minuscule compared to conventional nuclear power plants, which span acres, produces gigawatts of electricity to power whole states, and can take more than a decade to build.

For INL, where scientists have tested dozens of reactors over the decades across an area three-quarters the size of Rhode Island, it’s a radical reimagining of the technology. This advanced reactor design could help overcome the biggest obstacles to nuclear energy: safety, efficiency, scale, cost, and competition. MARVEL is an experiment to see how all these pieces could fit together in the real world.

“It’s an applications test reactor where we’re going to try to figure out how we extract heat and energy from a nuclear reactor and apply it — and combine it with wind, solar, and other energy sources,” said Yasir Arafat, head of the MARVEL program.

The project, however, comes at a time when nuclear power is getting pulled in wildly different directions, from phase-outs to new strategies like the UK’s green industrial revolution that shapes upcoming reactors.

Germany just shut down its last nuclear reactors. The U.S. just started up its first new reactor in 30 years, underscoring a shift. France, the country with the largest share of nuclear energy on its grid, saw its atomic power output decline to its lowest since 1988 last year. Around the world, there are currently 60 nuclear reactors under construction, with 22 in China alone.

But the world is hungrier than ever for energy. Overall electricity demand is growing: Global electricity needs will increase nearly 70 percent by 2050 compared to today’s consumption, according to the Energy Information Administration. At the same time, the constraints are getting tighter. Most countries worldwide, including the U.S., have committed to net-zero goals by the middle of the century, even as demand rises.

To meet this energy demand without worsening climate change, the U.S. Energy Department’s report on advanced nuclear energy released in March said, “the U.S. will need ~550–770 [gigawatts] of additional clean, firm capacity to reach net-zero; nuclear power is one of the few proven options that could deliver this at scale.”

The U.S. government is now renewing its bets on nuclear power to produce steady electricity without emitting greenhouse gases. The Bipartisan Infrastructure Law included $6 billion to keep existing nuclear power plants running. In addition, the Inflation Reduction Act, the U.S. government’s largest investment in countering climate change, includes several provisions to benefit atomic power, including tax credits for zero-emissions energy.

“It’s a game changer,” said John Wagner, director of INL.

The tech sector is jumping in, too, as atomic energy heats up across startups and investors. In 2021, venture capital firms poured $3.4 billion into nuclear energy startups. They’re also pouring money into even more far-out ideas, like nuclear fusion power. Public opinion has also started moving. An April Gallup poll found that 55 percent of Americans favour and 44 percent oppose using atomic energy, the highest levels of support in 10 years.

 

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External investigators looking into alleged assaults by Manitoba Hydro workers

Manitoba Hydro Allegations Investigation reveals RCMP and OPP probes into 1960s abuses in northern Manitoba, affecting Fox Lake Cree Nation, citing racism, discrimination, sexual assault, and oversight by the IIU and Clean Environment Commission.

 

Key Points

A coordinated probe into historic abuses tied to Manitoba Hydro projects, led by OPP and IIU after RCMP referral.

✅ OPP to investigate historical cases involving Hydro staff and contractors.

✅ IIU to examine any allegations implicating Manitoba RCMP officers.

✅ Findings follow CEC report on racism and abuse near Fox Lake.

 

Manitoba RCMP have called in outside investigators to probe alleged assaults linked to hydro projects in the province’s north during the 1960s.

RCMP say any historical criminal investigations involving Manitoba Hydro employees or contractors will be handled by the Ontario Provincial Police.

The Independent Investigation Unit of Manitoba, the province’s police watchdog, will investigate any allegations involving RCMP officers.

A report released last month by an arm’s-length review agency outlined racism, discrimination and sexual abuse at the Crown-owned utility’s work sites dating back decades, while projects like Site C COVID-19 updates provide contemporary examples of reporting.

Much of the development at that time was centered around the community of Gillam and the nearby Fox Lake Cree Nation.

The report said the presence of a largely male construction workforce led to the sexual abuse of Indigenous women, some of whom said their complaints were ignored by the RCMP, and in a different context, Hydro One worker injury highlights safety risks in the sector.

Premier Brian Pallister says his government is taking the right approach to addressing alleged sexual assaults and racism by Manitoba Hydro workers against members of a remote northern First Nation, while pandemic cost-cutting at Manitoba Hydro has shaped recent operations.

Pallister made his first public comments about the allegations after a private meeting with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau on Tuesday evening, as COVID-19 reshaped Saskatchewan and other Prairie priorities were in focus.

The allegations, made by members of Fox Lake Cree Nation, were revealed in a report produced by the Clean Environment Commission. The report was released by the provincial government in August, although it was completed in May.

Allegations against Manitoba Hydro workers: What you need to know

"My reaction would be that's deplorable behaviour, and I have to admit, my puzzlement is why this wasn't investigated sooner or didn't come to light sooner," Pallister said, adding that he believes his government has taken the right approach by referring the information to the RCMP.

Some members of Fox Lake Cree Nation say the government didn't give them any advance notice of the release of the report, so the community was traumatized when it hit the news.

Pallister said his government didn't want to delay the release of the report.

'Pure trauma': Fox Lake members stricken after hasty release of troubling report

"I think the right thing to do is release the report. A lot of this information was in the public domain over the last number of weeks and months anyway. It wasn't the case of it being new in that respect," he said.

However, he accepted criticism of the timeline of the report's release.

"I would rather accept those criticisms, than accept the argument that we were in any way covering up information that is important to be released," he said.

Fox Lake Chief Walter Spence has said he expects Pallister to visit the community.

The premier said Tuesday he was not sure of the effectiveness of such a trip.

"I think most of the communities would prefer that there be electricity jobs for young Canadians created in their communities, that there be better water, many other tangible things rather than symbolism," he said.

"That's what I'm hearing and I've been in dozens of First Nations communities in the last two years."

 

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Global oil demand to decline in 2020 as Coronavirus weighs heavily on markets

COVID-19 Impact on Global Oil Demand 2020 signals an IEA forecast of declining consumption as travel restrictions curb transport fuels, disrupt energy markets, and shift OPEC and non-OPEC supply dynamics amid economic slowdown.

 

Key Points

IEA sees first demand drop since 2009 as COVID-19 curbs travel, weakening transport fuels and unsettling energy markets.

✅ IEA base case: 2020 demand at 99.9 mb/d, down 90 kb/d from 2019.

✅ Travel restrictions hit transport fuels; China drives the decline.

✅ Scenarios: low -730 kb/d; high +480 kb/d in 2020.

 

Global oil demand is expected to decline in 2020 as the impact of the new coronavirus (COVID-19) spreads around the world, constricting travel and broader economic activity, according to the International Energy Agency’s latest oil market forecast.

The situation remains fluid, creating an extraordinary degree of uncertainty over what the full global impact of the virus will be. In the IEA’s central base case, even as global CO2 emissions flatlined in 2019 according to the IEA, demand this year drops for the first time since 2009 because of the deep contraction in oil consumption in China, and major disruptions to global travel and trade.

“The coronavirus crisis is affecting a wide range of energy markets – including coal-fired electricity generation, gas and renewables – but its impact on oil markets is particularly severe because it is stopping people and goods from moving around, dealing a heavy blow to demand for transport fuels,” said Dr Fatih Birol, the IEA’s Executive Director. “This is especially true in China, the largest energy consumer in the world, which accounted for more than 80% of global oil demand growth last year. While the repercussions of the virus are spreading to other parts of the world, what happens in China will have major implications for global energy and oil markets.”

The IEA now sees global oil demand at 99.9 million barrels a day in 2020, down around 90,000 barrels a day from 2019. This is a sharp downgrade from the IEA’s forecast in February, which predicted global oil demand would grow by 825,000 barrels a day in 2020.

The short-term outlook for the oil market will ultimately depend on how quickly governments move to contain the coronavirus outbreak, how successful their efforts are, and what lingering impact the global health crisis has on economic activity.

To account for the extreme uncertainty facing energy markets, the IEA has developed two other scenarios for how global oil demand could evolve this year. In a more pessimistic low case, global measures fail to contain the virus, and global demand falls by 730,000 barrels a day in 2020. In a more optimistic high case, the virus is contained quickly around the world, and global demand grows by 480,000 barrels a day.

“We are following the situation extremely closely and will provide regular updates to our forecasts as the picture becomes clearer,” Dr Birol said. “The impact of the coronavirus on oil markets may be temporary. But the longer-term challenges facing the world’s suppliers are not going to go away, especially those heavily dependent on oil and gas revenues. As the IEA has repeatedly said, these producer countries need more dynamic and diversified economies in order to navigate the multiple uncertainties that we see today.”

The IEA also published its medium-term outlook examining the key issues in global demand, supply, refining and trade to 2025, as well as the trajectory of the global energy transition now shaping markets. Following a contraction in 2020 and an expected sharp rebound in 2021, yearly growth in global oil demand is set to slow as consumption of transport fuels grows more slowly and as national net-zero pathways, with Canada needing more electricity to reach net-zero influencing power demand, according to the report. Between 2019 and 2025, global oil demand is expected to grow at an average annual rate of just below 1 million barrels a day. Over the period as whole, demand rises by a total of 5.7 million barrels a day, with China and India accounting for about half of the growth.

At the same time, the world’s oil production capacity is expected to rise by 5.9 million barrels a day, with more than three-quarters of it coming from non-OPEC producers, the report forecasts. But production growth in the United States and other non-OPEC countries is set to lose momentum after 2022, amid shifts in Wall Street's energy strategy linked to policy signals, allowing OPEC producers from the Middle East to turn the taps back up to help keep the global oil market in balance.

The medium-term market report, Oil 2020, also considers the impact of clean energy transitions on oil market trends. Demand growth for gasoline and diesel between 2019 and 2025 is forecast to weaken as countries around the world implement policies to improve efficiency and cut carbon dioxide emissions – and as solar power becomes the cheapest electricity in many markets and electric vehicles increase in popularity. The impact of energy transitions on oil supply remains unclear, with many companies prioritising short-cycle projects for the coming years.

“The coronavirus crisis is adding to the uncertainties the global oil industry faces as it contemplates new investments and business strategies,” Dr Birol said. “The pressures on companies are changing, with European oil majors turning electric to diversify. They need to show that they can deliver not just the energy that economies rely on, but also the emissions reductions that the world needs to help tackle our climate challenge.”

 

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