Gaining power from the sun

EIA U.S. Power Outlook 2023-2024 forecasts lower electricity demand, softer wholesale prices, and faster renewable growth from solar and wind, with steady natural gas, reduced coal generation, slight nuclear gains, and ERCOT market moderation.

Key Points

An EIA forecast of a 2023 demand dip, 2024 rebound, lower prices, and a higher renewable share in the U.S. power mix.

✅ Demand dips to 4,000 billion kWh in 2023; rebounds in 2024.

✅ ERCOT on-peak prices average about $35/MWh versus $80/MWh in 2022.

✅ Renewables grow to 24% share; coal falls to 17%; nuclear edges up.

U.S. power consumption is expected to slip about 1% in 2023 from the previous year as milder weather slows usage from the record high hit in 2022, consistent with recent U.S. consumption trends observed over the past several years, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in its Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO).

EIA projected that electricity demand is on track to slide to 4,000 billion kilowatt-hours (kWh) in 2023 from a historic high of 4,048 billion kilowatt-hours (kWh) in 2022, reflecting patterns seen during COVID-19 demand shifts in prior years, before rising to 4,062 billion kWh in 2024 as economic growth ramps up.

Less demand coupled with more electricity generation from cheap renewable power sources and lower natural gas prices is forecast to slash wholesale power prices this year, the EIA said.

The on-peak wholesale price at the North hub in Texas’ ERCOT power market is expected to average about $35 per megawatt-hour (MWh) in 2023 compared with an average of nearly $80/MWh in 2022 after the 2022 price surge in power markets.

As capacity for renewables like solar and wind ramp up and as natural gas prices ease amid the broader energy crisis pressures, the EIA said it expects coal-fired power generation to be 17% less in the spring of 2023 than in the spring of 2022.

Coal will provide an average of 17% of total U.S. generation this year, down from 20% last year, as utilities shift investments toward electricity delivery and away from new power production, the EIA said.

The share of total generation supplied by natural gas is seen remaining at about the same this year at 39%. The nuclear share of generation is seen rising slightly to 20% this year from 19% in 2022. Generation from renewable energy sources grows the most in the forecast, increasing to 24% this year from a share of 22% last year, even as residential electricity bills rose in 2022 across the U.S.

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BC Hydro Holiday Energy Saving Tips highlight electricity usage trends and power conservation during Christmas cooking. Use efficient appliances, lower the thermostat, and track consumption with MyHydro to reduce bills while hosting guests.

Key Points

Guidelines from BC Hydro to cut holiday electricity usage via efficient cooking, smart thermostats, and MyHydro tracking.

✅ Use microwave, toaster oven, or slow cooker to save power.

✅ Batch-bake cookies and pies to minimize oven cycles.

✅ Set thermostat to 18 C and monitor use with MyHydro.

BC Hydro is reminding British Columbians to conserve power over the holidays after a report commissioned by the utility found the arrival of guests for Christmas dinner results in a 15% increase in electricity usage, and it expects holiday usage to rise as gatherings ramp up.

Cooking appears to be the number one culprit for the uptick in peoples’ hydro bills. According to BC Hydro press release, British Columbians use about 8,000 megawatt hours more of electricity by mid-day Christmas — that's about 1.5 million turkeys roasted in electric ovens — while Ontario electricity demand shifted as people stayed home during the pandemic.
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About 95% of British Columbians said they would make meals at home from scratch over the holiday season, mirroring the uptick in residential electricity use observed during the pandemic. The survey found that inviting friends or family over trumped any plans people had to buy pre-made meals or order take-out. Six in 10 respondents said they would also rather bake holiday treats than pick them up pre-made from the store. 

The survey also showed people in B.C. are taking steps to reduce their electricity usage, echoing earlier findings that many British Columbians changed daily electricity habits during the pandemic. When participants were asked whether they were conscious of how much electricity they used when visiting friends or family, 80% said they would be taking steps to limit their usage.

And while cooking meals from scratch over the holidays may contribute to a spike in a person's electricity bill, some studies have found that, when comparing their overall environmental impact against that of ready-made meals, a roasted dinner has a lower negative impact.

Still, there are many ways to improve your energy efficiency and save some money over the holiday season, and conserving can also help the grid during events like the recent atypical storm response noted by BC Hydro. BC Hydro recommends:

• using smaller appliances whenever possible, such as a microwave, crockpot or toaster oven as they use less than half the power of a regular electric oven;

• baking cookies or pies in batches to save energy;

• turning down the household thermostat to 18 C when possible to reduce costs during peak hydro rates where applicable;

• and tracking how much electricity you use through the MyHydro tool alongside potential time-of-use rates for smarter scheduling

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Heavy-Duty Truck Electrification is disrupting the aftermarket as diesel declines: fewer parts, regenerative braking, emissions rules, e-drives, gearboxes, and software engineering needs reshape service demand, while ICE fleets persist for years.

Key Points

Transition of heavy trucks to EV systems, reducing parts and emissions while reshaping aftermarket service and skills.

✅ 33% fewer parts; regenerative braking slashes brake wear

✅ Diesel share declines; EVs and natural gas slowly gain

✅ Aftermarket shifts to e-drives, gearboxes, software and service

Those who sell parts and repair trucks might feel uneasy when reports emerge about a coming generation of electric trucks.

There are reportedly about 33% fewer parts to consider when internal combustion engines and transmissions are replaced by electric motors. Features such as regenerative braking are expected to dramatically reduce brake wear. As for many of the fluids needed to keep components moving? They can remain in their tanks and drums.

Think of them as disruptors. But presenters during the annual Heavy Duty Aftermarket Dialogue are stressing that the changes are not coming overnight. Chris Patterson, a consultant and former Daimler Trucks North America CEO, noted that the Daimler electrification plan underscores the shift as he counts just 50 electrified heavy trucks in North America.

About 88% of today’s trucks run on diesel, with the remaining 12% mostly powered by gasoline, said John Blodgett, MacKay and Company’s vice-president of sales and marketing. Five years out, even amid talk of an EV inflection point, he expects 1% to be electric, 2% to be natural gas, 12% to be gasoline, and 84% on diesel.

But a decade from now, forecasts suggest a split of 76% diesel, 11% gasoline, 7% electric, and 5% natural gas, with a fraction of a percent relying on hydrogen-electric power. Existing internal combustion engines will still be in service, and need to be serviced, but aftermarket suppliers are now preparing for their roles in the mix, especially as Canada’s EV opportunity comes into focus for North American players.

“This is real, for sure,” said Delphi Technologies CEO Rick Dauch.

Aftermarket support is needed
“As programs are launched five to six years from now, what are the parts coming back?” he asked the crowd. “Braking and steering. The fuel injection business will go down, but not for 20-25 years.” The electric vehicles will also require a gear box and motor.

“You still have a business model,” he assured the crowd of aftermarket professionals.

Shifting emissions standards are largely responsible for the transformation that is occurring. In Europe, Volkswagen’s diesel emissions scandal and future emissions rules of Euro 7 will essentially sideline diesel-powered cars, even as electric buses have yet to take over transit systems. Delphi’s light-duty diesel business has dropped 70% in just five years, leading to plant closures in Spain, France and England.

“We’ve got a billion-dollar business in electrification, last year down $200 million because of the downturn in light-duty diesel controllers,” Dauch said. “We think we’re going to double our electrification business in five years.”

That has meant opening five new plants in Eastern European markets like Turkey, Romania and Poland alone.

Deciding when the market will emerge is no small task, however. One new plant in China offered manufacturing capacity in July 2019, but it has yet to make any electric vehicle parts, highlighting mainstream EV challenges tied to policy shifts, because the Chinese government changed the incentive plans for electric vehicles.

‘All in’ on electric vehicles
Dana has also gone “all in” on electrification, said chairman and CEO Jim Kamsickas, referring to Dana’s work on e-drives with Kenworth and Peterbilt. Its gasket business is focusing on the needs of battery cooling systems and enclosures.

But he also puts the demand for new electric vehicle systems in perspective. “The mechanical piece is still going to be there.”

The demand for the new components and systems, however, has both companies challenged to find enough capable software engineers. Delphi has 1,600 of them now, and it needs more.

“Just being a motor supplier, just being an inverter supplier, just being a gearbox supplier itself, yes you’ll get value out of that. But in the longhaul you’re going to need to have engineers,” Kamsickas said of the work to develop systems.

Dauch noted that Delphi will leave the capital-intensive work of producing batteries to other companies in markets like China and Korea. “We’re going to make the systems that are in between – inverters, chargers, battery management systems,” he said.

Difficult change
But people working for European companies that have been built around diesel components are facing difficult days. Dauch refers to one German village with a population of 1,200, about 800 of whom build diesel engine parts. That business is working furiously to shift to producing gasoline parts.

Electrification will face hurdles of its own, of course. Major cities around the world are looking to ban diesel-powered vehicles by 2050, but they still lack the infrastructure needed to charge all the cars and truck fleet charging at scale, he added.

Kamsickas welcomes the disruptive forces.

“This is great,” he said. “It’s making us all think a little differently. It’s just that business models have had to pivot – for you, for us, for everybody.”

They need to be balanced against other business demands, including evolving cross-border EV collaboration dynamics, too.

Said Kamsickas: “Working through the disruption of electrification, it’s how do you financially manage that? Oh, by the way, the last time I checked there are [company] shareholders and stakeholders you need to take care of.”

“It’s going to be tough,” Dauch agreed, referring to the changes for suppliers. “The next three to four years are really going to be game changes. “There’ll be some survivors and some losers, that’s for sure.”

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Lake Erie Connector Investment advances a 1,000 MW HVDC transmission link connecting Ontario to the PJM Interconnection, enhancing grid reliability, clean power trade, and GHG reductions through a public-private partnership led by CIB and ITC.

Key Points

A $1.7B public-private HVDC project linking Ontario and PJM to boost reliability, cut GHGs, and enable clean power trade.

✅ 1,000 MW, 117 km HVDC link between Ontario and PJM

✅ $655M CIB and $1.05B private financing, ITC to own-operate

✅ Cuts system costs, boosts reliability, reduces GHG emissions

The Canada Infrastructure Bank (CIB) and ITC Investment Holdings (ITC) have signed an agreement in principle to invest $1.7 billion in the Lake Erie Connector project.

Under the terms of the agreement, the CIB will invest up to $655 million or up to 40% of the project cost. ITC, a subsidiary of Fortis Inc., and private sector lenders will invest up to $1.05 billion, the balance of the project's capital cost.

The CIB and ITC Investment Holdings signed an agreement in principle to invest $1.7B in the Lake Erie Connector project.

The Lake Erie Connector is a proposed 117 kilometre underwater transmission line connecting Ontario with the PJM Interconnection, the largest electricity market in North America, and aligns with broader regional efforts such as the Maine transmission line to import Quebec hydro to strengthen cross-border interconnections.

The 1,000 megawatt, high-voltage direct current connection will help lower electricity costs for customers in Ontario and improve the reliability and security of Ontario's energy grid, complementing emerging solutions like battery storage across the province. The Lake Erie Connector will reduce greenhouse gas emissions and be a source of low-carbon electricity in the Ontario and U.S. electricity markets.

During construction, the Lake Erie Connector is expected to create 383 jobs per year and drive more than $300 million in economic activity, and complements major clean manufacturing investments like a $1.6 billion battery plant in the Niagara Region that supports the EV supply chain. Over its life, the project will provide 845 permanent jobs and economic benefits by boosting Ontario's GDP by $8.8 billion.

The project will also help Ontario to optimize its current infrastructure, avoid costs associated with existing production curtailments or shutdowns. It can leverage existing generation capacity and transmission lines to support electricity demand, alongside new resources such as the largest battery storage project planned for southwestern Ontario.

ITC continues its discussions with First Nations communities and is working towards meaningful participation in the near term and as the project moves forward to financial close.

The CIB anticipates financial close late in 2021, pending final project transmission agreements, with construction commencing soon after. ITC will own the transmission line and be responsible for all aspects of design, engineering, construction, operations and maintenance.

ITC acquired the Lake Erie Connector project in August 2014 and it has received all necessary regulatory and permitting approvals, including a U.S. Presidential Permit and approval from the Canada Energy Regulator.

This is the CIB's first investment commitment in a transmission project and another example of the CIB's momentum to quickly implement its $10B Growth Plan, amid broader investments in green energy solutions in British Columbia that support clean growth.

Endorsements

This project will allow Ontario to export its clean, non-emitting power to one of the largest power markets in the world and, as a result, benefit Canadians economically while also significantly contributing to greenhouse gas emissions reductions in the PJM market. The project allows Ontario to better manage peak capacity and meet future reliability needs in a more sustainable way. This is a true win-win for both Canada and the U.S., both economically and environmentally.
Ehren Cory, CEO, Canada Infrastructure Bank

The Lake Erie Connector has tremendous potential to generate customer savings, help achieve shared carbon reduction goals, and increase electricity system reliability and flexibility. We look forward to working with the CIB, provincial and federal governments to support a more affordable, customer-focused system for Ontarians. 
Jon Jipping, EVP & COO, ITC Investment Holdings Inc., a subsidiary of Canadian-based Fortis Inc. 

We are encouraged by this recent announcement by the Canada Infrastructure Bank. Mississaugas of the Credit First Nation has an interest in projects within our historic treaty lands that have environmental benefits and that offer economic participation for our community.
Chief Stacey Laforme, Mississaugas of the Credit First Nation

While our evaluation of the project continues, we recognize this project can contribute to the economic resilience of our Shareholder, the Mississaugas of the Credit First Nation. Subject to the successful conclusion of our collaborative efforts with ITC, we look forward to our involvement in building the necessary infrastructure that enable Ontario's economic engine.
Leonard Rickard, CEO, Mississaugas of the Credit Business Corporation

The Lake Erie Connector demonstrates the advantages of public-private partnerships to develop critical infrastructure that delivers greater value to Ontarians. Connecting Ontario's electricity grid to the PJM electricity market will bring significant, tangible benefits to our province. This new connection will create high-quality jobs, improve system flexibility, and allow Ontario to export more excess electricity to promote cost-savings for Ontario's electricity consumers.
Greg Rickford, Minister of Energy, Northern Development and Mines, Minister of Indigenous Affairs

With the US pledging to achieve a carbon-free electrical grid by 2035, Canada has an opportunity to export clean power, helping to reduce emissions, maximizing clean power use and making electricity more affordable for Canadians. The Lake Erie Connector is a perfect example of that. The Canada Infrastructure Bank's investment will give Ontario direct access to North America's largest electricity market - 13 states and D.C. This is part of our infrastructure plan to create jobs across the country, tackle climate change, and increase Canada's competitiveness in the clean economy, alongside innovation programs like the Hydrogen Innovation Fund that foster clean technology.

Quick Facts

• The Lake Erie Connector is a 1,000 megawatt, 117 kilometre long underwater transmission line connecting Ontario and Pennsylvania.
• The PJM Interconnection is a regional transmission organization coordinating the movement of wholesale electricity in all or parts of Delaware, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Maryland, Michigan, New Jersey, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Virginia, West Virginia and the District of Columbia.
• The project will help to reduce electricity system costs for customers in Ontario, and aligns with ongoing consultations on industrial electricity pricing and programs, while helping to support future capacity needs.
• The CIB is mandated to invest CAD $35 billion and attract private sector investment into new revenue-generating infrastructure projects that are in the public interest and support Canadian economic growth.
• The investment commitment is subject to final due diligence and approval by the CIB's Board.

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Calgary EV Charging for Apartments and Condos streamlines permitting for multi-unit dwellings, guiding condo boards and property managers to install EV charging stations, expand infrastructure, and advance sustainability with cleaner air and lower emissions.

Key Points

A Calgary program simplifying permits and guidance to add EV charging stations in multi-unit residential buildings.

✅ Streamlined permitting for condo boards and property managers

✅ Technical assistance to install EV charging stations

✅ Boosts property value and reduces emissions citywide

As the demand for electric vehicles (EVs) continues to rise, and as national EV targets gain traction, Calgary is taking significant strides to enhance its charging infrastructure, particularly in apartment and condominium complexes. A recent initiative has been introduced to facilitate the installation of EV charging stations in these residential buildings, addressing a critical barrier for potential EV owners living in multi-unit dwellings.

The Growing EV Market

Electric vehicles are no longer a niche market; they have become a mainstream option for many consumers. As of late 2023, EV sales have surged, with projections indicating that the trend will only continue. However, a significant challenge remains for those who live in apartments and condos, where high-rise charging can be a mixed experience and the lack of accessible charging stations persists. Unlike homeowners with garages, residents of multi-unit dwellings often rely on public charging infrastructure, which can be inconvenient and limiting.

The New Initiative

In response to this growing concern, the City of Calgary has launched a new initiative aimed at easing the process of installing EV chargers in apartment and condo buildings. This program is designed to streamline the permitting process, reduce red tape, and provide clear guidelines for property managers and condo boards, similar to strata installation rules adopted in other jurisdictions to ease installations.

The initiative includes various measures, such as providing technical assistance and resources to building owners and managers. By simplifying the installation process, the city hopes to encourage more residential complexes to adopt EV charging stations. The initiative also emphasizes practical support, such as providing technical assistance, including condo retrofit guidance, and resources to building owners and managers. This is a significant step towards creating an eco-friendly urban environment and meeting the growing demand for sustainable transportation options.

Benefits of the Initiative

The benefits of this initiative are manifold. Firstly, it supports Calgary's broader climate goals by promoting electric vehicle adoption. As more residents gain access to charging stations, the city can expect a corresponding reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, contributing to cleaner air and a healthier urban environment.

Additionally, providing charging infrastructure can enhance property values. Buildings equipped with EV chargers become more attractive to potential tenants and buyers who prioritize sustainability. As the market for electric vehicles expands, properties that offer charging facilities are likely to see increased demand, making them a sound investment for landlords and developers.

Overcoming Challenges

While this initiative marks a positive step forward, there are still challenges to address. Property managers and condo boards may face initial resistance from residents who are uncertain about the costs associated with installing and maintaining EV chargers, though rebates for home and workplace charging can offset upfront expenses and ease adoption. Clear communication about the long-term benefits, including potential energy savings and the value of sustainable living, will be essential in overcoming these hurdles.

Furthermore, the city will need to ensure that the installation of EV chargers is done in a way that is equitable and inclusive. This means considering the needs of all residents, including those who may not own an electric vehicle but would benefit from a greener community.

Looking Ahead

As Calgary moves forward with this initiative, it sets a precedent for other cities, as seen in Vancouver's EV-ready policy, facing similar challenges in promoting electric vehicle adoption. By prioritizing charging infrastructure in multi-unit residential buildings, Calgary is taking important steps towards a more sustainable future.

In conclusion, the push for EV charging stations in apartments and condos is a critical move for Calgary. It reflects a growing recognition of the role that urban planning and infrastructure play in supporting the transition to electric vehicles, which complements corridor networks like the BC Electric Highway for intercity travel. With the right support and resources, Calgary can pave the way for a greener, more sustainable urban landscape that benefits all its residents. As the city embraces this change, it will undoubtedly contribute to a broader shift towards sustainable living, ultimately helping to combat climate change and improve the quality of life for all Calgarians.

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Advanced Nuclear Reactors redefine nuclear energy with SMRs, diverse fuels, passive safety, digital control rooms, and flexible heat and power, pairing veteran operator expertise with cost-efficient, carbon-free electricity for a resilient grid.

Key Points

SMR-based advanced reactors with passive cooling and digital controls deliver flexible power and process heat.

✅ Veteran operators transfer proven safety culture and risk management.

✅ SMRs, passive safety, and digital controls simplify operations.

✅ Flexible output: electricity, process heat, and grid support.

Advanced reactors will break the mold of what we think next-gen nuclear power can accomplish: some will be smaller, some will use different kinds of fuel and others will do more than just make electricity. This new technology may seem like uncharted waters, but when operators, technicians and other workers start up the first reactors of the new generation, they will bring with them years of nuclear experience to run machines that have been optimized with lessons from the current fleet.

While advanced reactors are often portrayed as the future of nuclear energy, and atomic energy is heating up across markets, its our current plants that have paved the way for these exciting innovations and which will be workhorses for years to come.

Reactor Veterans Bring Their Expertise to New Designs

Many of the workers who will operate the next generation of reactors come from a nuclear background. Even though the design of an advanced reactor may be different, the experience and instincts these operators have gained from working at the current fleet will help new plants get off to a more productive start.

They have a questioning attitude; they are always exploring what could go wrong and always understanding the notion of risk management in nuclear operations, whether its the oldest design or the newest design, said Chip Pardee, the president of Terrestrial Energy USA, who is the former chief operating officer at two nuclear utilities, Exelon Corp. and the Tennessee Valley Authority.

They have respect for the technology and a bias towards conservative decision-making.

Jhansi Kandasamy, vice president of engineering at GE Hitachi Nuclear Energy, agrees. She said that the presence of industry veterans will benefit the new modelslike the 300 megawatt boiling water reactor her company is developing.

From the beginning, a new reactor will have people who have touched it, worked on it, and experienced it, she said.

Theyre going to be able to tell you if something doesnt look right, because theyve lived through it.

Experience Informs New Reactor Design

Advanced reactors are designed by engineers who are fully familiar with existing plants and can use that experience to optimize the new ones, like a family building a house and wanting the kitchen just so. New reactors will be simpler to operate because of insights gained from years of operations of the current fleet, and some designs even integrate molten salt energy storage to enhance flexibility.

NuScale Power LLC, for example, has a very different design from the current fleet amid an advanced nuclear push that is reshaping development: up to 12 small reactorsinstead of one or two large reactorsmanaged from a single digital control roominstead of one full of analog switches and dials. When the company designed its control room, it brought in industry veterans who had collectively worked at more than two dozen nuclear plants.

The experts that NuScale brought in critiqued everything, even down to the shape of the symbols on the computer screens to make them easier to read for operators who sometimes need to quickly interpret lots of incoming data. The control panels for NuScales small modular reactor (SMR) present information according to its importance and automatically call up appropriate procedures for operators.

Many advanced reactors are also smaller than those currently operating, which makes their components simpler and less expensive. Kandasamy pointed out that the giant mechanical pumps in todays reactors generate a lot of heat and require a lot of supporting systems, including air conditioning in the rooms that house them.

GE Hitachis SMR design relies more on passive cooling so it needs fewer pumps, and those that remain use magnets, so they generate less heat. Fewer, smaller pumps means a smaller building and less cost.

Advanced Nuclear Will Further the Work of Current Reactors

Advanced reactors promise improved flexibility and the ability to do more kinds of work, including nuclear beyond electricity applications, to displace carbon and stabilize the climate. And they will continue nuclear energys legacy of providing reliable, carbon-free electricity, as a recent new U.S. reactor startup illustrates in practice. As new designs come on line over the next decade, we will continue to rely on operating plants which provide nearly 55 percent of the countrys carbon-free electricity.

The world will need all the carbon-free generation it can get for many years to come, as companies, states and countries aim for zero emissions by mid-century and pursue strategies like the green industrial revolution to accelerate deployment. That means it will need wind, solar, advanced reactors and current plants.

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