Energy efficiency programs can reduce consumption growth by 22%

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Energy efficiency programs in the United States could realistically reduce the rate of growth for electricity consumption by 22 percent over the next two decades if key barriers can be addressed, according to an analysis released today by the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI).

The potential energy savings in 2030 would be 236 billion kilowatt hours, equivalent to the annual electricity consumption of 14 New York Cities.

Stated differently, the demand for electricity over the next two decades could be reduced from the 1.07 percent annual growth rate projected by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) in its 2008 Annual Energy Outlook down to 0.83 percent, slowing the rate of increase by approximately 22 percent.

The analysis comes at a time when utilities, regulators, and policymakers are aggressively seeking ways to meet growing electricity demand while reducing the nationÂ’s carbon footprint. The key challenge is to maximize potential gains in energy efficiency while ensuring adequate new electric generation to maintain reliability and meet future demand.

The EPRI analysis entitled “Assessment of Achievable Savings Potential From Energy Efficiency and Demand Response in the U.S.” found that under an ideal set of conditions conducive to energy efficiency programs, the consumption growth rate could be further reduced to as low as 0.68 percent annually by 2030. However, achieving the ideal would require costly investments as well as political and regulatory support.

The report defines a realistic achievable figure that includes a forecast of likely customer behavior, taking into account existing market, societal and attitudinal barriers as well as regulatory and program funding barriers. The barriers could reflect customersÂ’ resistance to doing more than the minimum required or a rejection of the attributes of the efficient technology.

A maximum achievable figure assumes a scenario of perfect customer awareness of utility or agency administered programs and effective, fully funded program execution. The maximum achievable number includes the effect of customer rejection of efficiency technologies.

“This study is well suited to inform utilities, policymakers, regulators, and other stakeholder groups,” said Arshad Mansoor, vice president of Power Delivery and Utilization for EPRI. “Estimates of energy efficiency potential affect forecasts of electricity demand, and electric utilities must make prudent investments in generation, transmission, and distribution infrastructure to reliably and cost-effectively address this demand.”

Faced with the challenges of managing energy resources wisely, maintaining low-cost reliable power service, and reducing carbon emissions, utilities and policy makers are looking to energy efficiency as a means to achieve these objectives. Many states have established, or are considering, legislation to mandate energy efficiency savings levels.

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TVA faces federal scrutiny over climate goals, electricity rates

TVA Rates and Renewable Energy Scrutiny spotlights electricity rates, distributed energy resources, solar and wind deployment, natural gas plans, grid access charges, energy efficiency cuts, and House oversight of lobbying, FERC inquiries, and least-cost planning.

 

Key Points

A congressional probe into TVA pricing and practices affecting renewables, energy efficiency, and climate goals.

✅ House panel probes TVA rates, DER and solar policies.

✅ Efficiency programs cut; least-cost planning questioned.

✅ Inquiry on lobbying, hidden fees; FERC scrutiny.

 

The Tennessee Valley Authority is facing federal scrutiny about its electricity rates and climate action, amid ongoing debates over network profits in other markets.

Members of the House Committee on Energy and Commerce are “requesting information” from TVA about its ratepayer bills and “out of concern” that TVA is interfering with the deployment of renewable and distributed energy resources, even as companies such as Tesla explore electricity retail to expand customer options.

“The Committee is concerned that TVA’s business practices are inconsistent with these statutory requirements to the disadvantage of TVA’s ratepayers and the environment,” the committee said in a letter to TVA CEO Jeffrey Lyash.

The four committee members — U.S. Reps. Frank Pallone, Jr. (D-NJ), Bobby L. Rush (D-IL), Diana DeGette (D-CO), and Paul Tonko (D-NY) — suggested that Tennessee Valley residents pay too much for electricity despite TVA’s relatively low rates, even as regulators have, in other cases, scrutinized mergers like the Hydro One-Avista deal to safeguard ratepayers, underscoring similar concerns. In 2020, Tennessee residents had electric bills higher than the national average, while low-income residents in Memphis have historically faced one of the highest energy burdens in the U.S.

In 2018, TVA reduced its wholesale rate while adding a grid access charge on local power companies—and interfered with the adoption of solar energy. Internal TVA documents obtained through a Freedom of Information Act request by the Energy and Policy Institute revealed that TVA permitted local power companies to impose new fees on distributed solar generation to “lessen the potential decrease in TVA load that may occur through the adoption of [behind the meter] generation.”

Additionally, the committee said TVA is not prioritizing energy conservation and efficiency or “least-cost planning” that includes renewables, as seen in oversight such as the OEB's Hydro One rates decision emphasizing cost allocation. TVA reduced its energy efficiency programs by nearly two-thirds between 2014 and 2018 and cut its energy efficiency customer incentive programs.

At this time, TVA has not aligned its long-term planning with the Biden administration’s goal to achieve a carbon-free electricity sector by 2035. TVA’s generation mix, which is roughly 60% carbon-free, comprises 39% nuclear, 19% coal, 26% natural gas, 11% hydro, 3% wind and solar, and 1% energy efficiency programs, according to TVA.

The committee is “greatly concerned that TVA has invested comparatively little to date in deploying solar and wind energy, while at the same time considering investments in new natural gas generation.”

TVA has announced plans to shutter the Kingston and Cumberland coal plants and is evaluating whether to replace this generation with natural gas, which is a fossil fuel, while debates over grid privatization raise questions about consumer benefits. TVA’s coal and natural gas plants represent most of the largest sources of greenhouses emissions in Tennessee.

TVA responded with a statement without directly addressing the committee’s concerns. TVA said its “developing and implementing emerging technologies to drive toward net-zero emissions by 2050.”

The final question that the House committee posed is whether TVA is funding any political activity. In 2019, the committee questioned TVA about its membership to the now-disbanded Utility Air Regulatory Group, a coalition that was involved in over 200 lawsuits that primarily fought Clear Air Act regulations.

TVA revealed that it had contributed $7.3 million to the industry lobbying group since 2001. Since TVA doesn’t have shareholders, customers paid for UARG membership fees, echoing findings that deferred utility costs burden customers in other jurisdictions. An Office of the Inspector General investigation couldn’t prove whether TVA’s contributions directly funded litigation because UARG didn’t have a line-by-line accounting of what they did with TVA’s dollars.

The congressional committee questioned whether TVA is still paying for lobbying or litigation that opposes “public health and welfare regulations.”

This last question follows a recent trend of questioning utilities about “hidden fees.” In December, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission issued a Notice of Inquiry to examine how bills from investor-owned utilities might contain fees that fund political activity, and regulators have penalized firms like NT Power over customer notice practices, highlighting consumer protection. The Center for Biological Diversity filed a petition to protect electric and gas customers of investor-owned utilities from paying these fees, which may be used for lobbying, campaign-related donations and litigation.

 

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TC Energy confirms Ontario pumped storage project is advancing

Ontario Pumped Storage advances as Ontario's largest energy storage project, delivering clean electricity, long-duration capacity, and grid reliability for peak demand, led by TC Energy and Saugeen Ojibway Nation, with IESO review underway.

 

Key Points

A long-duration storage project in Meaford storing clean power for peak demand, supporting Ontario's emission-free grid.

✅ Stores clean electricity to power 1M homes for 11 hours

✅ Partnership: TC Energy and Saugeen Ojibway Nation

✅ Pending IESO review and OEB regulation decisions

 

In a bid to accelerate the province's ambitions for clean economic growth, TC Energy Corporation has announced significant progress in the development of the Ontario Pumped Storage Project. The Government of Ontario in Canada has unveiled a plan to address growing energy needs as a sustainable road map aimed at achieving an emission-free electricity sector, and as part of this plan, the Ministry of Energy is set to undertake a final evaluation of the proposed Ontario Pumped Storage Project. A decision is expected to be reached by the end of the year.

Ontario Pumped Storage is a collaborative effort between TC Energy and the Saugeen Ojibway Nation. The project is designed to be Ontario's largest energy storage initiative, capable of storing clean electricity to power one million homes for 11 hours. As the province strives to transition to a cleaner electricity grid by embracing clean power across sectors, long duration storage solutions like Ontario Pumped Storage will play a pivotal role in providing reliable, emission-free power during peak demand periods.

The success of the Project hinges on the approval of TC Energy's board of directors and a fruitful partnership agreement with the Saugeen Ojibway Nation. TC Energy is aiming for a final investment decision in 2024, as Ontario confronts an electricity shortfall in the coming years, with the anticipated in-service date being in the early 2030s, pending regulatory and corporate approvals.

“Ontario Pumped Storage will be a critical component of Ontario’s growing clean economy and will deliver significant benefits and savings to consumers,” said Corey Hessen, Executive Vice-President and President, TC Energy, Power and Energy Solutions. “Ontario continues to attract major investments that will have large power needs — many of which are seeking zero-emission energy before they invest. We are pleased the government is advancing efforts to recognize the significant role that long duration storage plays — firming resources, including new gas plants under provincial consideration, will become increasingly valuable in supporting a future emission-free electricity system.” 

The Municipality of Meaford also expressed its support for the project, recognizing the positive impact it could have on the local economy and the overall electricity system of Ontario. Additionally, various stakeholders, including LiUNA OPDC, LiUNA Local 183, and the Ontario Chamber of Commerce, lauded the potential for job creation, training opportunities, and resilient energy infrastructure as Ontario seeks new wind and solar power to ease a coming electricity supply crunch.

The timeline for Ontario Pumped Storage's progress includes a final analysis by the Independent Electricity System Operator (IESO) to confirm its role in Ontario's electricity system and in balancing demand and emissions during the transition, to be completed by 30 September 2023. Concurrently, the Ministry of Energy will engage in consultations on the potential regulation of the Project via the Ontario Energy Board, while debates over clean, affordable electricity intensify ahead of the Ontario election, with a final determination scheduled for 30 November 2023.

 

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Price Spikes in Ireland Fuel Concerns Over Dispatachable Power Shortages in Europe

ISEM Price Volatility reflects Ireland-Northern Ireland grid balancing pressures, driven by dispatchable power shortages, day-ahead market dynamics, renewable shortfalls, and interconnector constraints, affecting intraday trading, operational reserves, and cross-border electricity flows.

 

Key Points

ISEM price volatility is Irish power price swings from grid balancing stress and limited dispatchable capacity.

✅ One-off spike linked to plant outage and low renewables

✅ Day-ahead market settling; intraday trading integration pending

✅ Interconnectors and reserves vital to manage adequacy

 

Irish grid-balancing prices soared to €3,774 ($4,284) per megawatt-hour last month amid growing concerns over dispatchable power capacity across Europe.

The price spike, triggered by an alert regarding generation losses, came only four months after Ireland and Northern Ireland launched an Integrated Single Electricity Market (ISEM) designed to make trading more competitive and improve power distribution across the island.

Evie Doherty, senior consultant for Ireland at Cornwall Insight, a U.K.-based energy consultancy, said significant price volatility was to be expected while ISEM is still settling down, aligning with broader 2019 grid edge trends seen across markets.

When the U.K. introduced a single market for Great Britain, called British Electricity Trading and Transmission Arrangements, in 2005, it took at least six months for volatility to subside, Doherty said.

In the case of ISEM, “it will take more time to ascertain the exact drivers behind the high prices,” she said. “We are being told that the day-ahead market is functioning as expected, but it will take time to really be able to draw conclusions on efficiency.”

Ireland and Northern Ireland have been operating with a single market “very successfully” since 2007, said Doherty. Although each jurisdiction has its own regulatory authority, they make joint decisions regarding the single market.

ISEM, launched in October 2018, was designed to help include Ireland and Northern Ireland day-ahead electricity prices in a market pricing system called the European Union Pan-European Hybrid Electricity Market Integration Algorithm.

In time, ISEM should also allow the Irish grids to participate in European intraday markets, and recent examples like Ukraine's grid connection underline the pace of integration efforts across Europe. At present, they are only able to do so with Great Britain. “The idea was to...integrate energy use and create more efficient flows between jurisdictions,” Doherty said.

EirGrid, the Irish transmission system operator, has reported that flows on its interconnector with Northern Ireland are more efficient than before, she said.

The price spike happened when the System Operator for Northern Ireland issued an alert for an unplanned plant outage at a time of low renewable output and constraints on the north-south tie-line with Ireland, according to a Cornwall Insight analysis.

 

Not an isolated event

Although it appears to have been a one-off event, there are increasing worries that a shortage of dispatchable power could lead to similar situations elsewhere across Europe, as seen in Nordic grid constraints recently.

Last month, newspaper Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung (FAZ) reported that German industrial concerns had been forced to curtail more than a gigawatt of power consumption to maintain operational reserves on the grid in December, after renewable production fell short of expectations and harsh weather impacts strained systems elsewhere.

Paul-Frederik Bach, a Danish energy consultant, has collected data showing that this was not an isolated incident. The FAZ report said German aluminum smelters had been forced to cut back on energy use 78 times in 2018, he noted.

Energy availability was also a concern last year in Belgium, where six out of seven nuclear reactors had been closed for maintenance. The closures forced Belgium to import 23 percent of its electricity from neighboring countries, Bach reported.

In a separate note, Bach revealed that 11 European countries that were net importers of energy had boosted their imports by 26 percent between 2017 and 2018. It is important to note that electricity imports do not necessarily imply a shortage of power, he stated.

However, it is also true that many European grid operators are girding themselves for a future in which dispatchable power is scarcer than today.

EirGrid, for example, expects dispatchable generation and interconnection capacity to drop from 10.6 gigawatts in 2018 to 9 gigawatts in 2027.

The Swedish transmission system operator Svenska Kraftnät, meanwhile, is forecasting winter peak power deficits could rise from 400 megawatts currently to 2.5 gigawatts in 2020-21.

Research conducted by the European Network of Transmission System Operators for Electricity, suggests power adequacy will fall across most of Europe up to 2025, although perhaps not to a critical degree.

The continent’s ability to deal with the problem will be helped by having more efficient trading systems, Bach told GTM. That means developments such as ISEM could be a step in the right direction, despite initial price volatility.

In the long run, however, Europe will need to make sure market improvements are accompanied by investments in HVDC technology and interconnectors and reserve capacity. “Somewhere there must be a production of electricity, even when there is no wind,” said Bach. 

 

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All-electric home sports big windows, small footprint

Cold-Climate Heat Pumps deliver efficient heating and cooling for Northern B.C. Net Zero Ready homes, with air-source Mitsubishi H2i systems, triple-pane windows, blower door ACH 0.8, BC Hydro rebates, and CleanBC incentives.

 

Key Points

Electric air-source systems that heat and cool in subzero climates, cutting emissions and lowering energy costs.

✅ Net Zero Ready, Step Code 5, ACH 0.8 airtightness

✅ Operate efficiently to about -28 C with backup heat

✅ Eligible for BC Hydro and CleanBC rebates

 

Heat pump provides heating, cooling in northern B.C. home
It's a tradition at Vanderhoof-based Northern Homecraft that, on the day of the blower door test for a just-completed home, everyone who worked on the build gathers to watch it happen. And in the spring of 2021, on a dazzling piece of land overlooking the mouth of the Stuart River near Fort St. James, that day was a cause for celebration.

A new 3,400-square foot home subjected to the blower door test – a diagnostic tool to determine how much air is entering or escaping from a home – was rated as having just .8 air changes per hour (ACH). That helps make it a Net Zero Ready home, and BC Energy Code Step 5 compliant. That means it would take about a third of the amount of energy to heat the home compared to a typical similar-sized home in B.C. today.

From an energy-efficiency perspective, this is a home whose evident beauty is anything but skin deep.

"The home has lot of square footage of finished living space, and it also has a lot of glazing," says Northern Homecraft owner Shay Bulmer, referring to the home's large windows. "We had a lot of window space to deal with, as well as large vaulted open areas where you can only achieve so much additional insulation. There were a few things that the home had going against it as far as performance goes. There were challenges in keeping it comfortable year-round."


Well-insulated home ideal for heat pump option
Most homes in colder areas of B.C. lean on gas-fueled heating systems to deal with the often long, chilly winters. But with the arrival of cold climate heat pumps capable of providing heat efficiently when temperatures dip as low as -30°C, there's now a clean option for those homes, and using more electricity for heat is gaining support in the North as well.

Heat pumps are an increasingly popular option, both for new and existing homes, because they avoid carbon emissions associated with fossil use while also offering summer cooling, even as record-high electricity demand in Yukon underscores the need for efficient systems.

The Fort St. James home, which was built with premium insulation, airtightness and energy efficiency in mind, made the decision to opt for a heat pump even easier. Still, the heat pump option took the home's owners Dexter and Cheryl Hodder by surprise. While their focus was on designing a home that took full advantage of views down to the river, the couple was under the distinct impression that heat pumps couldn't cut it in the chilly north.

"I wasn't really considering a heat pump, which I thought was only a good solution in a moderate climate," says Dexter, who as director of research and education for the John Prince Research Forest, studies wildlife and forestry interactions in north central B.C. "The specs on the heat pump indicate it would work down to -28°C, and I was skeptical of that. But it worked exactly to spec. It almost seems ridiculous to generate heat from outside air at those low temperatures, but it does."

 

Getting it right with support and rebates
Northern Homecraft took advantage of BC Hydro's Mechanical System Design Pilot program to ensure proper heat pump system design, installation, and verification for the home were applied, and with BC Hydro's first call for power in 15 years driven by electrification, the team prioritized efficient load management.

Based on the home's specific location, size, and performance targets, they installed a ducted Mitsubishi H2I air-source heat pump system. Windows are triple pane, double coated, and a central feature of the home, while insulation specifications were R-40 deep frame insulation in the exterior walls, R-80 insulation in the attic, and R-40 insulation in the vaulted ceilings.

The combination of the year-round benefits of heat pumps, their role in reducing fossil fuel emissions, and the availability of rebates, is making the systems increasingly attractive in B.C., especially as two new BC generating stations were recently commissioned to expand clean supply.

BC Hydro offers home renovation rebates of up to $10,000 for energy-efficient upgrades to existing homes. Rebates are available for windows and doors, insulation, heat pumps, and heat pump hot water heaters. In partnership with CleanBC, rebates of up to $11,000 are also available – when combined with the federal Greener Homes program – for those switching from fossil fuel heating to an electric heat pump.


'Heat dome' pushes summer highs to 40°C
Cooling wasn't really a consideration for Dexter and Cheryl when they were living in a smaller bungalow shaded by trees. But they knew that with the big windows, vaulted ceiling in the living room, and an upstairs bedroom in the new home, there may come a time when they needed air conditioning.

That day arrived shortly after the home was built, as the infamous "heat dome" settled on B.C. and drove temperatures at Fort St. James to a dizzying 40°C.

"It was disgustingly hot, and I don't care if I never see that again here," says Hodder, with a laugh. "But the heat pump maintained the house really nicely throughout, at about 22 degrees. The whole house stayed cool. We just had to close the door to the upper bedroom so it wasn't really heating up during the day."

Hodder says he had to work with the heat pump manufacturer Mitsubishi a couple times over that first year to fix a few issues with the system's controls. But he's confident that the building's tight and well-insulated envelope, and the heat pump's backup electric heat that kicks in when temperatures dip below -28°C, will make it the system-for-all-seasons it was designed to be.

Even with the use of supplemental electric heating during the record chill of December-January, the home's energy costs weren't much higher than the mid-winter energy bills they used to pay in the couple's smaller bungalow that relied on a combination of gas-fired in-floor heating and electric baseboards, as gas-for-electricity swaps are being explored elsewhere.

Fort St. James is a former fur trading post located northwest of Prince George and a short drive north of Vanderhoof. Winters are cold and snowy, with average daily low temperatures in December and January of around -14°C.

"During the summer and into the fall, we were paying well less than $100 a month," says Hodder, looking back at electricity bills over the first year in the home. "And that's everything. We're only electric here, and we also had both of us working from home all last year."

 

Word of mouth making heat pumps popular in Fort St. James
While the size of the home presented new challenges for the builders, it's one of five Net Zero Ready or Net Zero homes – all equipped with some form of heat pump – that Northern Homecraft has built in Fort St. James, even as debates about going nuclear for electricity continue in B.C.

The smallest of the homes is a two-bedroom, one-bathroom home that's just under 900 square feet. Northern Homecraft may be based in Vanderhoof, but it's the much smaller town of Fort St. James where they're making their mark with super-efficient homes. Net Zero Ready homes are up to 80% more efficient than the standard building code, and become Net Zero once renewable energy generation – usually in the form of photovoltaic solar – is installed, and programs like switching 5,000 homes to geothermal show the broader momentum for clean heating.

"We were pretty proud that the first home we built in Fort St. James was the first single family Net Zero Ready home built in B.C.," says Northern Homecraft's Bulmer. "And I think it's kind of caught on in a smaller community where everyone talks to everyone."

 

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Enel kicks off 90MW Spanish wind build

Enel Green Power España Aragon wind farms advance Spain's renewable energy transition, with 90MW under construction in Teruel, Endesa investment of €88 million, 25-50MW turbines, and 2017 auction-backed capacity enhancing grid integration and clean power.

 

Key Points

They are three Teruel wind projects totaling 90MW, part of Endesa's 2017-awarded plan expanding Spain's clean energy.

✅ 90MW across Sierra Costera I, Allueva, and Sierra Pelarda

✅ €88m invested; 14+7+4 turbines; Endesa-led build in Teruel

✅ Part of 2017 tender: 540MW wind, 339MW solar, nationwide

 

Enel Green Power Espana, part of Enel's wind projects worldwide, has started constructing three wind farms in Aragon, north-east Spain, which are due online by the end of the year.

The projects, all situated in the Teruel province, are worth a total investment of €88 million.

The biggest of the facilities, Sierra Costera I, will have a 50MW and will feature 14 turbines.

The wind farm is spread across the municipalities of Mezquita de Jarque, Fuentes Calientes, Canada Vellida and Rillo.

The Allueva wind facility will feature seven turbines and will exceed 25MW.

Sierra Pelarda, in Fonfria, will have four turbines and a capacity of 15MW, as advances in offshore wind turbine technology continue to push scale elsewhere.

The projects bring the total number of wind farms that Enel Green Power Espana has started building in the Teruel province to six, equal to an overall capacity of 218MW.

Endesa chief executive Jose Bogas said: “These plants mark the acceleration on a new wave of growth in the renewable energy space that Endesa is committed to pursue in the next years, driving the energy transition in Spain.”

The six wind farms under construction in Teruel are part of the 540MW that Enel Green Power Espana was awarded in the Spanish government's renewable energy tender held in May 2017.

In Aragon, the company will invest around €434 million euros, reflecting broader European wind power investment trends in recent years, to build 13 wind farms with a total installed capacity of more than 380MW.

The remaining 160MW of wind capacity will be located in Andalusia, Castile-Leon, Castile La Mancha and Galicia, even as some Spanish turbine factories closed during pandemic restrictions.

Enel Green Power Espana was also awarded 339MW of solar capacity in the Spanish government's auction held in July 2017, while other Spanish developers advance CSP projects abroad in markets like Chile.

Once all wind and solar under the 2017 tender are complete they will boost the company’s capacity by around 52%.

 

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California electricity pricing changes pose an existential threat to residential rooftop solar

California Rooftop Solar Rate Reforms propose shifting net metering to fixed access fees, peak-demand charges, and time-of-use pricing, aligning grid costs, distributed generation incentives, and retail rates for efficient, least-cost electricity and fair cost recovery.

 

Key Points

Policies replacing net metering with fixed fees, demand charges, and time-of-use rates to align costs and incentives.

✅ Large fixed access charge funds grid infrastructure

✅ Peak-demand pricing reflects capacity costs at system peak

✅ Time-varying rates align marginal costs and emissions

 

The California Public Service Commission has proposed revamping electricity rates for residential customers who produce electricity through their rooftop solar panels. In a recent New York Times op‐​ed, former Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger argued the changes pose an existential threat to residential rooftop solar. Interest groups favoring rooftop solar portray the current pricing system, often called net metering, in populist terms: “Net metering is the one opportunity for the little guy to get relief, and they want to put the kibosh on it.” And conventional news coverage suggests that because rooftop solar is an obvious good development and nefarious interests, incumbent utilities and their unionized employees, support the reform, well‐​meaning people should oppose it. A more thoughtful analysis would inquire about the characteristics and prices of a system that supplies electricity at least cost.

Currently, under net metering customers are billed for their net electricity use plus a minimum fixed charge each month. When their consumption exceeds their home production, they are billed for their net use from the electricity distribution system (the grid) at retail rates. When their production exceeds their consumption and the excess is supplied to the grid, residential consumers also are reimbursed at retail rates. During a billing period, if a consumer’s production equaled their consumption their electric bill would only be the monthly fixed charge.

Net metering would be fine if all the fixed costs of the electric distribution and transmission systems were included in the fixed monthly charge, but they are not. Between 66 and 77 percent of the expenses of California private utilities do not change when a customer increases or decreases consumption, but those expenses are recovered largely through charges per kWh of use rather than a large monthly fixed charge. Said differently, for every kWh that a PG&E solar household exported into the grid in 2019, it saved more than 26 cents, on average, while the utility’s costs only declined by about 8 cents or less including an estimate of the pollution costs of the system’s fossil fuel generators. The 18‐​cent difference pays for costs that don’t change with variation in a household’s consumptions, like much of the transmission and distribution system, energy efficiency programs, subsidies for low‐​income customers, and other fixed costs. Rooftop solar is so popular in California because its installation under a net metering system avoids the 18 cents, creating a solar cost shift onto non-solar customers. Rooftop solar is not the answer to all our environmental needs. It is simply a form of arbitrage around paying for the grid’s fixed costs.

What should electricity tariffs look like? This article in Regulation argues that efficient charges for electricity would consist of three components: a large fixed charge for the distribution and transmission lines, meter reading, vegetation trimming, etc.; a peak‐​demand charge related to your demand when the system’s peak demand occurs to pay for fixed capacity costs associated with peak use; and a charge for electricity use that reflects the time‐ and location‐​varying cost of additional electricity supply.

Actual utility tariffs do not reflect this ideal because of political concerns about the effects of large fixed monthly charges on low‐​income customers and the optics of explaining to customers that they must pay 50 or 60 dollars a month for access even if their use is zero. Instead, the current pricing system “taxes” electricity use to pay for fixed costs. And solar net metering is simply a way to avoid the tax. The proposed California rate reforms would explicitly impose a fixed monthly charge on rooftop solar systems that are also connected to the grid, a change that could bring major changes to your electric bill statewide, and would thus end the fixed‐​cost avoidance. Any distributional concerns that arise because of the effect of much larger fixed charges on lower‐​income customers could be managed through explicit tax deductions that are proportional to income.

The current rooftop solar subsidies in California also should end because they have perverse incentive effects on fossil fuel generators, even as the state exports its energy policies to neighbors. Solar output has increased so much in California that when it ends with every sunset, natural gas generated electricity has to increase very rapidly. But the natural gas generators whose output can be increased rapidly have more pollution and higher marginal costs than those natural gas plants (so called combined cycle plants) whose output is steadier. The rapid increase in California solar capacity has had the perverse effect of changing the composition of natural gas generators toward more costly and polluting units.

The reforms would not end the role of solar power. They would just shift production from high‐​cost rooftop to lower‐​cost centralized solar production, a transition cited in analyses of why electricity prices are soaring in California, whose average costs are comparable with electricity production in natural gas generators. And they would end the excessive subsidies to solar that have negatively altered the composition of natural gas generators.

Getting prices right does not generate citizen interest as much as the misguided notion that rooftop solar will save the world, and recent efforts to overturn income-based utility charges show how politicized the debate remains. But getting prices right would allow the decentralized choices of consumers and investors to achieve their goals at least cost.

 

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