Climate disclosure sought by environment groups

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Two environmental groups critical of coal-fired electric plants are urging the Securities and Exchange Commission to encourage broker-dealers that underwrite municipal bonds for such projects to provide more disclosure about the regulatory and fiscal changes stemming from climate change.

The Natural Resources Defense Council made the request in a comment letter sent to the SEC just before Christmas, endorsing a September letter from the Sierra Club that called for improvements to both primary and continuing disclosures for these types of bonds.

While several market participants said that climate change disclosures are already being provided for at least some muni deals, representatives at both groups are arguing that the level of disclosure by municipal utilities and tax-exempt electric cooperatives are insufficient and fail to account for the full expected cost of a cap-and-trade regulatory system that Congress may authorize this year.

The groups contend the most important risk that is not adequately disclosed is the utilities' potential future costs of having to acquire allowances for carbon dioxide emissions that would be regulated under the proposed cap-and-trade system.

Further, unless the SEC takes action, they said large disparities will develop in the reporting of climate-risk disclosure between publicly traded companies that are beginning to provide such disclosures and municipal utilities or tax-exempt rural electric cooperatives that are not.

"NRDC believes a level playing field should exist between publicly traded companies and municipal securities when it comes to disclosure," the group said in a December 15 letter signed by executive director Peter Lehner.

Both letters come as the SEC is moving forward with a proposal to generally expand on the types of disclosures issuers must provide on a continuing basis to comply with its Rule 15c2-12.

The environmental groups say the SEC's proposal falls short by not addressing climate change. They want the agency to provide interpretive guidance under 15c2-12 "clarifying the substance and scope of climate-risk disclosure as material information which would be included in the official statement," as well as in annual financial information provided on a continuing basis.

"Despite clear evidence of materiality for publicly traded companies, these proposed [changes to 15c2-12] are silent concerning the need for climate risk disclosure in municipal bond documents," said the Sierra Club letter, which was signed by Mark Kresowik, who runs the group's "Coal is Dirty" blog, Lisa Anne Hamilton, a Sierra Club attorney, and Tom Sanzillo, a consultant at T.R. Rose Associates.

"Some of the largest contributors to greenhouse gas emissions are coal-fired power plants operated and supported by tax-exempt rural electric cooperatives, municipal utilities, and finance authorities... which utilize the municipal bond market and are exempt" from SEC registration, they said.

John Steelman, program manager for NRDC's Climate Center, said that municipal power plants typically sell long-term contracts to a number of states and localities, which in turn are usually on the hook for any future regulatory costs.

"We believe this future risk is not being disclosed to the municipal governments that will be entering into these power contracts," he said.

The calls for enhanced disclosure comes about 18 months after California Treasurer Bill Lockyer and then-New York City Comptroller William Thompson asked the Treasury Department to consider banning the use of tax-exempt debt to finance new coal-fired plants, calling them environmentally risky and among the most costly power projects in the country.

The environmental groups are turning their attention to the SEC after the Treasury failed to formally respond to those earlier requests. In the meantime, the groups note that the Department of Agriculture's Rural Utility Services has enacted an effective moratorium on providing federal loans to help finance new coal-plant loans, underscoring the regulatory and financial uncertainty in the industry.

Seeming to buttress those concerns, a report on the proposed cap-and-trade system issued last year by at least one rating agency, Standard & Poor's, said a "substantial" decline in coal-based electricity generation is possible through 2026. The agency estimated that coal-based electricity would fall to about 30% of the market, from 51% in 2007.

But some market participants are skeptical about the groups' calls for improvements to primary disclosure. Dan Aschenbach, a senior vice president at Moody's Investors Service, noted that there was "quite a bit" of climate change disclosure in the offering documents for bond deals sold by six different issuers to finance the massive Prairie State Energy Campus, the $3 billion coal-fired plant under construction in southwest Illinois.

Aschenbach said that an extensive feasibility study, with a number of different risk assessments, was included in offering documents, including for $469 million of bonds issued by American Municipal Power Inc. of Ohio in October.

However, he said there is room for refinement on continuing disclosures. That could include more rigourous forecasts for how plants incorporate energy efficiency and renewable technologies into their so-called strategic integrated resource plans, he said.

Asked about the feasibility study in the American Municipal Power offering documents, Sanzillo, who helped write the Sierra Club letter, claimed it contains flawed analysis that fails to address the cumulative risk factors of the coal investments.

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Was there another reason for electricity shutdowns in California?

PG&E Wind Shutdown and Renewable Reliability examines PSPS strategy, wildfire risk, transmission line exposure, wind turbine cut-out speeds, grid stability, and California's energy mix amid historic high-wind events and supply constraints across service areas.

 

Key Points

An overview of PG&E's PSPS decisions, wildfire mitigation, and how wind cut-out limits influence grid reliability.

✅ Wind turbines reach cut-out near 55 mph, reducing generation.

✅ PSPS mitigates ignition from damaged transmission infrastructure.

✅ Baseload diversity improves resilience during high-wind events.

 

According to the official, widely reported story, Pacific Gas & Electric (PG&E) initiated power shutoffs across substantial portions of its electric transmission system in northern California as a precautionary measure.

Citing high wind speeds they described as “historic,” the utility claims that if it didn’t turn off the grid, wind-caused damage to its infrastructure could start more wildfires.

Perhaps that’s true. Perhaps. This tale presumes that the folks who designed and maintain PG&E’s transmission system are unaware of or ignored the need to design it to withstand severe weather events, and that the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) and North American Electric Reliability Corp. (NERC) allowed the utility to do so.

Ignorance and incompetence happens, to be sure, but there’s much about this story that doesn’t smell right—and it’s disappointing that most journalists and elected officials are apparently accepting it without question.

Take, for example, this statement from a Fox News story about the Kincade Fires: “A PG&E meteorologist said it’s ‘likely that many trees will fall, branches will break,’ which could damage utility infrastructure and start a fire.”

Did you ever notice how utilities cut wide swaths of trees away when transmission lines pass through forests? There’s a reason for that: When trees fall and branches break, the grid can still function, and even as the electric rhythms of New York City shifted during COVID-19, operators planned for variability.

So, if badly designed and poorly maintained infrastructure isn’t the reason PG&E cut power to millions of Californians, what might have prompted them to do so? Could it be that PG&E’s heavy reliance on renewable energy means they don’t have the power to send when a “historic” weather event occurs, especially as policymakers weigh the postponed closure of three power plants elsewhere in California?

 

Wind Speed Limits

The two most popular forms of renewable energy come with operating limitations, which is why some energy leaders urge us to keep electricity options open when planning the grid. With solar power, the constraint is obvious: the availability of sunlight. One doesn’t generate solar power at night and energy generation drops off with increasing degrees of cloud cover during the day.

The main operating constraint of wind power is, of course, wind speed, and even in markets undergoing 'transformative change' in wind generation, operators adhere to these technical limits. At the low end of the scale, you need about a 6 or 7 miles-per-hour wind to get a turbine moving. This is called the “cut-in speed.” To generate maximum power, about a 30 mph wind is typically required. But, if the wind speed is too high, the wind turbine will shut down. This is called the “cut-out speed,” and it’s about 55 miles per hour for most modern wind turbines.

It may seem odd that wind turbines have a cut-out speed, but there’s a very good reason for it. Each wind turbine rotor is connected to an electric generator housed in the turbine nacelle. The connection is made through a gearbox that is sized to turn the generator at the precise speed required to produce 60 Hertz AC power.

The blades of the wind turbine are airfoils, just like the wings of an airplane. Adjusting the pitch (angle) of the blades allows the rotor to maintain constant speed, which, in turn, allows the generator to maintain the constant speed it needs to safely deliver power to the grid. However, there’s a limit to blade pitch adjustment. When the wind is blowing so hard that pitch adjustment is no longer possible, the turbine shuts down. That’s the cut-out speed.

Now consider how California’s power generation profile has changed. According to Energy Information Administration data, the state generated 74.3 percent of its electricity from traditional sources—fossil fuels and nuclear, amid debates over whether to classify nuclear as renewable—in 2001. Hydroelectric, geothermal, and biomass-generated power accounted for most of the remaining 25.7 percent, with wind and solar providing only 1.98 percent of the total.

By 2018, the state’s renewable portfolio had jumped to 43.8 percent of total generation, with clean power increasing and wind and solar now accounting for 17.9 percent of total generation. That’s a lot of power to depend on from inherently unreliable sources. Thus, it wouldn’t be at all surprising to learn that PG&E didn’t stop delivering power out of fear of starting fires, but because it knew it wouldn’t have power to deliver once high winds shut down all those wind turbines

 

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Australia to head huge electricity and internet project in PNG

Australia-PNG Infrastructure Rollout delivers electricity and broadband expansion across PNG, backed by New Zealand, the US, Japan, and South Korea, enhancing telecom capacity, digital connectivity, and regional development ahead of the APEC summit.

 

Key Points

A multi-billion-dollar plan to expand power and broadband in PNG, covering 70% of users with allied support.

✅ Delivers internet to 70% of PNG households and communities

✅ Expands electricity grid, boosting reliability and access

✅ Backed by NZ, US, Japan, and S. Korea; complements APEC investments

 

Australia will lead a new multi-billion-dollar electricity and internet rollout in Papua New Guinea, with the PM rules out taxpayer-funded power plants stance underscoring its approach to energy policy.

The Australian newspaper reported New Zealand, the US, Japan, whose utilities' offshore wind deal in the UK signaled expanding energy interests, and South Korea are supporting the project, which will be PNG's largest ever development investment.

The project will deliver internet to 70 percent of PNG and improve access to power, even as clean energy investment in developing nations has slipped sharply, according to a recent report.

Both China and the US are also expected to announce new investments in the region at the APEC summit this week, and recent China-Cambodia nuclear energy cooperation underscores those energy ties.

Beijing will announce new mining and energy investments in PNG, echoing projects such as the Chinese-built electricity poles plant in South Sudan, and two Confucius Insitutes to be housed at PNG universities.

 

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Why Canada should invest in "macrogrids" for greener, more reliable electricity

Canadian electricity transmission enables grid resilience, long-distance power trade, and decarbonization by integrating renewables, hydroelectric storage, and HVDC links, providing backup during extreme weather and lowering costs to reach net-zero, clean energy targets.

 

Key Points

An interprovincial high-voltage grid that shares clean power to deliver reliable, low-cost decarbonization.

✅ Enables resilience by sharing power across weather zones

✅ Integrates renewables with hydro storage via HVDC links

✅ Lowers decarbonization costs through interprovincial trade

 

As the recent disaster in Texas showed, climate change requires electricity utilities to prepare for extreme events. This “global weirding” is leaving Canadian electricity grids increasingly exposed to harsh weather that leads to more intense storms, higher wind speeds, heatwaves and droughts that can threaten the performance of electricity systems.

The electricity sector must adapt to this changing climate while also playing a central role in mitigating climate change. Greenhouse gas emissions can be reduced a number of ways, but the electricity sector is expected to play a central role in decarbonization, including powering a net-zero grid by 2050 across Canada. Zero-emissions electricity can be used to electrify transportation, heating and industry and help achieve emissions reduction in these sectors.

Enhancing long-distance transmission is viewed as a cost-effective way to enable a clean and reliable power grid, and to lower the cost of meeting our climate targets. Now is the time to strengthen transmission links in Canada, with concepts like a western Canadian electricity grid gaining traction.


Insurance for climate extremes
An early lesson from the Texas power outages is that extreme conditions can lead to failures across all forms of power supply. The state lost the capacity to generate electricity from natural gas, coal, nuclear and wind simultaneously. But it also lacked cross-border transmission to other electricity systems that could have bolstered supply.

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Long-distance transmission offers the opportunity to escape the correlative clutch of extreme weather, by accessing energy and spare capacity in areas not beset by the same weather patterns. For example, while Texas was in its deep freeze, relatively balmy conditions in California meant there was a surplus of electricity generation capability in that region — but no means to get it to Texas. Building new transmission lines and connections across broader regions, including projects like a hydropower line to New York that expand access, can act as an insurance policy, providing a back-up for regions hit by the crippling effects of climate change.

A transmission tower crumpled under the weight of ice.
The 1998 Quebec ice storm left 3.5 million Quebecers and a million Ontarians, as well as thousands in in New Brunswick, without power. CP Photo/Robert Galbraith
Transmission is also vulnerable to climate disruptions, such as crippling ice storms that leave wires temporarily inoperable. This may mean using stronger poles when building transmission, or burying major high-voltage transmission links, or deploying superconducting cables to reduce losses.

In any event, more transmission links between regions can improve resilience by co-ordinating supply across larger regions. Well-connected grids that are larger than the areas disrupted by weather systems can be more resilient to climate extremes.


Lowering the cost of clean power
Adding more transmission can also play a role in mitigating climate change. Numerous studies have found that building a larger transmission grid allows for greater shares of renewables onto the grid, ultimately lowering the overall cost of electricity.

In a recent study, two of us looked at the role transmission could play in lowering greenhouse gas emissions in Canada’s electricity sector. We found the cost of reducing greenhouse gas emissions is lower when new or enhanced transmission links can be built between provinces.

Average cost increase to electricity in Canada at different levels of decarbonization, with new transmission (black) and without new transmission (red). New transmission lowers the cost of reducing greenhouse gas emissions. (Authors), Author provided
Much of the value of transmission in these scenarios comes from linking high-quality wind and solar resources with flexible zero-emission generation that can produce electricity on demand. In Canada, our system is dominated by hydroelectricity, but most of this hydro capacity is located in five provinces: British Columbia, Manitoba, Ontario, Québec and Newfoundland and Labrador.

In the west, Alberta and Saskatchewan are great locations for building low-cost wind and solar farms. Enhanced interprovincial transmission would allow Alberta and Saskatchewan to build more variable wind and solar, with the assurance that they could receive backup power from B.C. and Manitoba when the wind isn’t blowing and the sun isn’t shining.

When wind and solar are plentiful, the flow of low cost energy can reverse to allow B.C. and Manitoba the opportunity to better manage their hydro reservoir levels. Provinces can only benefit from trading with each other if we have the infrastructure to make that trade possible.

A recent working paper examined the role that new transmission links could play in decarbonizing the B.C. and Alberta electricity systems. We again found that enabling greater electricity trade between B.C. and Alberta can reduce the cost of deep cuts to greenhouse gas emissions by billions of dollars a year. Although we focused on the value of the Site C project, in the context of B.C.'s clean energy shift, the analysis showed that new transmission would offer benefits of much greater value than a single hydroelectric project.

The value of enabling new transmission links between Alberta and B.C. as greenhouse gas emissions reductions are pursued. (Authors), Author provided
Getting transmission built
With the benefits that enhanced electricity transmission links can provide, one might think new projects would be a slam dunk. But there are barriers to getting projects built.

First, electricity grids in Canada are managed at the provincial level, most often by Crown corporations. Decisions by the Crowns are influenced not simply by economics, but also by political considerations. If a transmission project enables greater imports of electricity to Saskatchewan from Manitoba, it raises a flag about lost economic development opportunity within Saskatchewan. Successful transmission agreements need to ensure a two-way flow of benefits.

Second, transmission can be expensive. On this front, the Canadian government could open up the purse strings to fund new transmission links between provinces. It has already shown a willingness to do so.

Lastly, transmission lines are long linear projects, not unlike pipelines. Siting transmission lines can be contentious, even when they are delivering zero-emissions electricity. Using infrastructure corridors, such as existing railway right of ways or the proposed Canadian Northern Corridor, could help better facilitate co-operation between regions and reduce the risks of siting transmission lines.

If Canada can address these barriers to transmission, we should find ourselves in an advantageous position, where we are more resilient to climate extremes and have achieved a lower-cost, zero-emissions electricity grid.

 

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California's solar energy gains go up in wildfire smoke

California Wildfire Smoke Impact on Solar reduces photovoltaic output, as particulate pollution, soot, and haze dim sunlight and foul panels, cutting utility-scale generation and grid reliability across CAISO during peak demand and heatwaves.

 

Key Points

How smoke and soot cut solar irradiance and foul panels, slashing PV generation and straining CAISO grid operations.

✅ Smoke blocks sunlight; soot deposition reduces panel efficiency.

✅ CAISO reported ~30% drop versus July during peak smoke.

✅ Longer fire seasons threaten solar reliability and capacity planning.

 

Smoke from California’s unprecedented wildfires was so bad that it cut a significant chunk of solar power production in the state, even as U.S. solar generation rose in 2022 nationwide. Solar power generation dropped off by nearly a third in early September as wildfires darkened the skies with smoke, according to the US Energy Information Administration.

Those fires create thick smoke, laden with particles that block sunlight both when they’re in the air and when they settle onto solar panels. In the first two weeks of September, soot and smoke caused solar-powered electricity generation to fall 30 percent compared to the July average, according to the California Independent System Operator (CAISO), which oversees nearly all utility-scale solar energy in California, where wind and solar curtailments have been rising amid grid constraints. It was a 13.4 percent decrease from the same period last year, even though solar capacity in the state has grown about 5 percent since September 2019.

California depends on solar installations for nearly 20 percent of its electricity generation, and has more solar capacity than the next five US states trailing it combined as it works to manage its solar boom sustainably. It will need even more renewable power to meet its goal of 100 percent clean electricity generation by 2045, building on a recent near-100% renewable milestone that underscored the transition. The state’s emphasis on solar power is part of its long-term efforts to avoid more devastating effects of climate change. But in the short term, California’s renewables are already grappling with rising temperatures.

Two records were smashed early this September that contributed to the loss of solar power. California surpassed 2 million acres burned in a single fire season for the first time (1.7 million more acres have burned since then). And on September 15th, small particle pollution reached the highest levels recorded since 2000, according to the California Air Resources Board. Winds that stoked the flames also drove pollution from the largest fires in Northern California to Southern California, where there are more solar farms.

Smaller residential and commercial solar systems were affected, too, and solar panels during grid blackouts typically shut off for safety, although smoke was the primary issue here. “A lot of my systems were producing zero power,” Steve Pariani, founder of the solar installation company Solar Pro Energy Systems, told the San Mateo Daily Journal in September.

As the planet heats up, California’s fire seasons have grown longer, and blazes are tearing through more land than ever before, while grid operators are also seeing rising curtailments as they integrate more renewables. For both utilities and smaller solar efforts, wildfire smoke will continue to darken solar energy’s otherwise bright future, even as it becomes the No. 3 renewable source in the U.S. by generation.

 

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Power Outages to Mitigate Wildfire Risks

Colorado Wildfire Power Shutoffs reduce ignition risk through PSPS, grid safety protocols, data-driven forecasts, and emergency coordination, protecting communities, natural resources, and infrastructure during extreme fire weather fueled by drought and climate change.

 

Key Points

Planned PSPS outages cut power in high-risk areas to prevent ignitions, protect residents, and boost wildfire resilience.

✅ PSPS triggered by forecasts, fuel moisture, and fire danger indices.

✅ Utilities coordinate alerts, timelines, and critical facility support.

✅ Paired with forest management, education, and rapid response.

 

Colorado, known for its stunning landscapes and outdoor recreation, has implemented proactive measures to reduce the risk of wildfires by strategically shutting off power in high-risk areas, similar to PG&E wildfire shutoffs implemented in California during extreme conditions. This approach, while disruptive, aims to safeguard communities, protect natural resources, and mitigate the devastating impacts of wildfires that have become increasingly prevalent in the region.

The decision to initiate power outages as a preventative measure against wildfires underscores Colorado's commitment to proactive fire management and public safety, aligning with utility disaster planning practices that strengthen grid readiness. With climate change contributing to hotter and drier conditions, the state faces heightened wildfire risks, necessitating innovative strategies to minimize ignition sources and limit fire spread.

Utility companies, in collaboration with state and local authorities, identify areas at high risk of wildfire based on factors such as weather forecasts, fuel moisture levels, and historical fire data. When conditions reach critical thresholds, planned power outages, also known as Public Safety Power Shutoffs (PSPS), are implemented to reduce the likelihood of electrical equipment sparking wildfires during periods of extreme fire danger, particularly during windstorm-driven outages that elevate ignition risks.

While power outages are a necessary precautionary measure, they can pose challenges for residents, businesses, and essential services that rely on uninterrupted electricity, as seen when a North Seattle outage affected thousands last year. To mitigate disruptions, utility companies communicate outage schedules in advance, provide updates during outages, and coordinate with emergency services to ensure the safety and well-being of affected communities.

The implementation of PSPS is part of a broader strategy to enhance wildfire resilience in Colorado. In addition to reducing ignition risks from power lines, the state invests in forest management practices, wildfire prevention education, and emergency response capabilities, including continuity planning seen in the U.S. grid COVID-19 response, to prepare for and respond to wildfires effectively.

Furthermore, Colorado's approach to wildfire prevention highlights the importance of community preparedness and collaboration, and utilities across the region adopt measures like FortisAlberta precautions to sustain critical services during emergencies. Residents are encouraged to create defensible space around their properties, develop emergency evacuation plans, and stay informed about wildfire risks and response protocols. Community engagement plays a crucial role in building resilience and fostering a collective effort to protect lives, property, and natural habitats from wildfires.

The effectiveness of Colorado's proactive measures in mitigating wildfire risks relies on a balanced approach that considers both short-term safety measures and long-term fire prevention strategies. By integrating technology, data-driven decision-making, and community partnerships, the state aims to reduce the frequency and severity of wildfires while enhancing overall resilience to wildfire impacts.

Looking ahead, Colorado continues to refine its wildfire management practices in response to evolving environmental conditions and community needs, drawing on examples of localized readiness such as PG&E winter storm preparation to inform response planning. This includes ongoing investments in fire detection and monitoring systems, research into fire behavior and prevention strategies, and collaboration with neighboring states and federal agencies to coordinate wildfire response efforts.

In conclusion, Colorado's decision to implement power outages as a preventative measure against wildfires demonstrates proactive leadership in wildfire risk reduction and public safety. By prioritizing early intervention and community engagement, the state strives to safeguard vulnerable areas, minimize the impact of wildfires, and foster resilience in the face of increasing wildfire threats. As Colorado continues to innovate and adapt its wildfire management strategies, its efforts serve as a model for other regions grappling with the challenges posed by climate change and wildfire risks.

 

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Opinion: Nuclear Beyond Electricity

Nuclear decarbonization leverages low-carbon electricity, process heat, and hydrogen from advanced reactors and SMRs to electrify industry, buildings, and transport, supporting net-zero strategies and grid flexibility alongside renewables with dispatchable baseload capacity.

 

Key Points

Nuclear decarbonization uses reactors to supply low-carbon power, heat, and hydrogen, cutting emissions across industry.

✅ Advanced reactors and SMRs enable high-temperature process heat

✅ Nuclear-powered electrolysis and HTSE produce low-carbon hydrogen

✅ District heating from reactors reduces pollution and coal use

 

By Dr Henri Paillere, Head of the Planning and Economics Studies Section of the IAEA

Decarbonising the power sector will not be sufficient to achieving net-zero emissions, with assessments indicating nuclear may be essential across sectors. We also need to decarbonise the non-power sectors - transport, buildings and industry - which represent 60% of emissions from the energy sector today. The way to do that is: electrification with low-carbon electricity as much as possible; using low-carbon heat sources; and using low-carbon fuels, including hydrogen, produced from clean electricity.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) says that: 'Almost half of the emissions reductions needed to reach net zero by 2050 will need to come from technologies that have not reached the market today.' So there is a need to innovate and push the research, development and deployment of technologies. That includes nuclear beyond electricity.

Today, most of the scenario projections see nuclear's role ONLY in the power sector, despite ongoing debates over whether nuclear power is in decline globally, but increased electrification will require more low-carbon electricity, so potentially more nuclear. Nuclear energy is also a source of low-carbon heat, and could also be used to produce low-carbon fuels such as hydrogen. This is a virtually untapped potential.

There is an opportunity for the nuclear energy sector - from advanced reactors, next-gen nuclear small modular reactors, and non-power applications - but it requires a level playing field, not only in terms of financing today's technologies, but also in terms of promoting innovation and supporting research up to market deployment. And of course technology readiness and economics will be key to their success.

On process heat and district heating, I would draw attention to the fact there have been decades of experience in nuclear district heating. Not well spread, but experience nonetheless, in Russia, Hungary and Switzerland. Last year, we had two new projects. One floating nuclear power plant in Russia (Akademik Lomonosov), which provides not only electricity but district heating to the region of Pevek where it is connected. And in China, the Haiyang nuclear power plant (AP1000 technology) has started delivering commercial district heating. In China, there is an additional motivation to reducing emissions, namely to cut air pollution because in northern China a lot of the heating in winter is provided by coal-fired boilers. By going nuclear with district heating they are therefore cutting down on this pollution and helping with reducing carbon emissions as well. And Poland is looking at high-temperature reactors to replace its fleet of coal-fired boilers and so that's a technology that could also be a game-changer on the industry side.

There have also been decades of research into the production of hydrogen using nuclear energy, but no real deployment. Now, from a climate point of view, there is a clear drive to find substitute fuels for the hydrocarbon fuels that we use today, and multiple new nuclear stations are seen by industry leaders as necessary to meet net-zero targets. In the near term, we will be able to produce hydrogen with electrolysis using low-carbon electricity, from renewables and nuclear. But the cheapest source of low-carbon power is from the long-term operation of existing nuclear power plants which, combined with their high capacity factors, can give the cheapest low-carbon hydrogen of all.

In the mid to long term, there is research on-going with processes that are more efficient than low-temperature electrolysis, which is high temperature steam electrolysis or thermal splitting of water. These may offer higher efficiencies and effectiveness but they also require advanced reactors that are still under development. Demonstration projects are being considered in several countries and we at the IAEA are developing a publication that looks into the business opportunities for nuclear production of hydrogen from existing reactors. In some countries, there is a need to boost the economics of the existing fleet, especially in the electricity systems where you have low or even negative market prices for electricity. So, we are looking at other products that have higher values to improve the competitiveness of existing nuclear power plants.

The future means not only looking at electricity, but also at industry and transport, and so integrated energy systems. Electricity will be the main workhorse of our global decarbonisation effort, but through heat and hydrogen. How you model this is the object of a lot of research work being done by different institutes and we at the IAEA are developing some modelling capabilities with the objective of optimising low-carbon emissions and overall costs.

This is just a picture of what the future might look like: a low-carbon power system with nuclear lightwater reactors (large reactors, small modular reactors and fast reactors) drawing on the green industrial revolution reactor waves in planning; solar, wind, anything that produces low-carbon electricity that can be used to electrify industry, transport, and the heating and cooling of buildings. But we know there is a need for high-temperature process steam that electricity cannot bring but which can be delivered directly by high-temperature reactors. And there are a number of ways of producing low-carbon hydrogen. The beauty of hydrogen is that it can be stored and it could possibly be injected into gas networks that could be run in the future on 100% hydrogen, and this could be converted back into electricity.

So, for decarbonising power, there are many options - nuclear, hydro, variable renewables, with renewables poised to surpass coal in global generation, and fossil with carbon capture and storage - and it's up to countries and industries to invest in the ones they prefer. We find that nuclear can actually reduce the overall cost of systems due to its dispatchability and the fact that variable renewables have a cost because of their intermittency. There is a need for appropriate market designs and the role of governments to encourage investments in nuclear.

Decarbonising other sectors will be as important as decarbonising electricity, from ways to produce low-carbon heat and low-carbon hydrogen. It's not so obvious who will be the clear winners, but I would say that since nuclear can produce all three low-carbon vectors - electricity, heat and hydrogen - it should have the advantage.
We at the IAEA will be organising a webinar next month with the IEA looking at long-term nuclear projections in a net-zero world, building on IAEA analysis on COVID-19 and low-carbon electricity insights. That will be our contribution from the point of view of nuclear to the IEA's special report on roadmaps to net zero that it will publish in May.

 

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