Why we should reconsider geothermal energy

By Mother Earth News


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Ironically, our pursuit of fossil fuels has brought us closer and closer to a much larger, more sustainable source of energy.

The interior of our planet is a giant nuclear power plant. The solid rock and soil on which we live our lives is essentially a thin skin of cool solids on top of a big ball of extremely hot rock. On the continents, the Earth’s solid “crust” is less than 20 miles deep. At the bottom edge of the crust the temperature of the rock is at least 1,000 degrees, Fahrenheit.

Deeper, it just gets hotter.

As we drill for oil and gas, we come closer and closer to an energy source that makes our tiny reservoir of fossil fuels seems pathetic in comparison.

Most of that heat is generated by the decay of radioactive elements, and they are scheduled to keep on generating heat for billions of years.

Twenty miles is not far to drive in a car, but itÂ’s a long way to drill through solid rock.

The crust of the Earth is not so thick everywhere, however. The floors of our deepest oceans may be only a couple of miles from the outer mantle of 1,000-degree rock. Oil and gas wells are often that deep. And in places between the tectonic plates the crust is much thinner, or even breached. Molten rock flows out on the surface from volcanoes. Scalding steam shoots from geysers where cool surface water makes contact with the planetÂ’s hot interior.

The total heat stored in the EarthÂ’s interior is hundreds of thousands of times greater than our most aggressive projections of our power needs. The energy under our feet dwarfs our wildest notions for power consumption. If we could efficiently harness geothermal energy to heat steam and drive turbines, every building, vehicle and machine on Earth could be powered by geothermally generated electricity forever.

Simple applications of geothermal power are already in use in millions of buildings around the world. A few of them can draw hot air or steam directly from the Earth. Where very hot geothermal energy is near the surface — Iceland, for instance — hot groundwater can be piped into radiators and swimming pools. Reykjavik is warmed by hot groundwater pumped through radiators throughout the city, then circulated below the streets and sidewalks to keep them free of ice and snow.

Of course that sort of obvious geothermal resource isn’t available in most locales. “Ground-source” geothermal pumps are useful everywhere. They push air or liquid through underground pipes to warm or cool a building from season to season. Because the underground temperature is stable year-round — warmer than the external temperature in winter and cooler in summer — ground-source heat pumps save some of the energy that furnaces and air conditioners would use in heating or cooling. Any place in the world where you might want the inside of your home to be warmer or cooler than the outside, ground-source geothermal works. In the most conducive locations, it can reduce the consumption of energy for heating and cooling by 75 percent.

Chances are thereÂ’s someone in your neighborhood already reducing their energy bill with a ground-source system.

The bigger opportunity in geothermal involves tapping high-energy geothermal sources to heat steam that drives electric turbines. Iceland, El Salvador, Kenya, the Philippines and Costa Rica — all nations with active volcanoes — already get more than 15 percent of their electricity from geothermal generating stations.

The largest geothermal power plant in the world is also one of the oldest. Pacific Gas and Electric built The Geysers power field in Northern California in 1960. The network of 18 active generators has a total capacity of about 1,500 megawatts and supplies electricity to five surrounding counties, supplying about 60 percent of the power needed in the coastal region between the Golden Gate Bridge and the Oregon border.

The development of geothermal electric generation — or the lack of development — precisely illustrates our lack of vision when it comes to energy policy.

Geothermal energy is virtually limitless. It is very clean in most locations. Massive amounts of power can be generated from a central plant with minimal disruption to the surrounding environment, and it easily and efficiently converts to electricity, the most portable and convenient of our energy options.

It is, in the vernacular of today’s energy policy, “capital intensive.” That means it requires a larger investment to build a geothermal generator than it does to put in another coal-fired power plant.

But isnÂ’t that comparison based purely on how we define value? Geothermal, once tapped, is almost infinitely abundant. The generation machinery may need to be replaced, but the planetary furnace just keeps on burning. The costs associated with cleaning up the environmental consequences of extracting and burning fossil fuels or nuclear fuels are completely irrelevant to geothermal power.

As we contemplate the potential costs of reclaiming defunct strip mines or reversing dangerous climate change we generally donÂ’t go back and apply those costs to the fossil-fuel economy, but thatÂ’s where they belong. Geothermal allows many nations of the world to generate their own power without imposing the environmental costs on other nations or shipping fossil fuels around the globe.

Yes, it costs a lot more to build a geothermal electric plant than it does to build one that burns coal. But have we really measured the costs and benefits? Or do we need a new way of evaluating the choice?

Geothermal is more fair than other sources of power because it doesnÂ’t impose the environmental damage caused by one nationÂ’s power needs on another nation. It is almost infinitely repeatable, since once we tap into the mantleÂ’s big, permanent fireplace, it will keep providing energy virtually forever, and itÂ’s practically accessible from every continent.

And some would say itÂ’s beautiful in its simple efficiency.

ItÂ’s time to recalculate its value.

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Electricity prices in Germany nearly doubled in a year

Germany Energy Price Hikes are driving electricity tariffs, gas prices, and heating costs higher as wholesale markets surge after the Ukraine invasion; households face inflationary pressure despite relief measures and a renewables levy cut.

 

Key Points

Germany Energy Price Hikes reflect surging power and gas tariffs from wholesale spikes, prompting relief measures.

✅ Electricity tariffs to rise 19.5% in Apr-Jun

✅ Gas tariffs up 42.3%; heating and fuel costs soar

✅ Renewables levy ends July; saves €6.6 billion yearly

 

Record prices for electricity and gas in Germany will continue to rise in the coming months, the dpa agency, citing estimates from the consumer portal Verivox.

According to him, electricity suppliers and local utilities, in whose area of ​​responsibility there are 13 million households, made an announcement of tariff increases in April, May and June by 19.5%. Gas tariffs increased by an average of 42.3%.

According to Verivox, electricity prices in Germany have approximately doubled over the year - a pattern seen as European electricity prices rose more than double the EU average - if previously a household with a consumption of 4,000 kWh paid 1,171 euros a year, now the amount has risen to 1,737 euros. Gas prices have risen even more, though European gas prices later returned to pre-Ukraine war levels: last year, a household with a consumption of 20,000 kWh paid 1,184 euros in annual terms, and now it is 2,787 euros. 

Energy costs for the average German household are 52 percent higher than a year ago, adding to EU inflation pressures, according to energy contract sales website Check24. In a press release, the company said the wholesale electricity price was at €122.93 per megawatt-hour in February 2022, compared to €49 this time last year, while in the United States US electricity prices climbed at the fastest pace in 41 years. In addition, electricity prices on the power exchange haven been rising rapidly since Russian troops invaded Ukraine, comparison portal Strom Report said. Costs for heating rose the most, triggered by the high gas price (105 euros per megawatt-hour on the wholesale market) and around 100 USD per barrel of oil – its highest price since 2014. Driving also became more expensive with costs for petrol up 25 percent and diesel 30 percent, Check24 said.

The German government has decided on relief measures for low-income households, including a 200 billion euro energy shield, in response to high consumer energy costs. In July, it will abolish the renewables levy on the power price, saving consumers around €6.6 billion annually. In a reform proposal released this week, the ministry for economy and climate also detailed how it will legally oblige power suppliers to reduce their power bills when the levy is abolished.

 

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Report: Solar ITC Extension Would Be ‘Devastating’ for US Wind Market

Solar ITC Impact on U.S. Wind frames how a 30% solar investment tax credit could undercut wind PTC economics, shift corporate procurement, and, without transmission and storage, slow onshore builds despite offshore wind momentum.

 

Key Points

It is how a solar ITC extension may curb U.S. wind growth absent PTC parity, transmission, storage, and offshore backing.

✅ ITC at 30% risks shifting corporate procurement to solar.

✅ Post-PTC wind faces grid, transmission, and curtailment headwinds.

✅ Offshore wind, storage pairing, TOU demand could offset.

 

The booming U.S. wind industry, amid a wind power surge, faces an uncertain future in the 2020s. Few factors are more important than the fate of the solar ITC.

An extension of the solar investment tax credit (ITC) at its 30 percent value would be “devastating” to the future U.S. wind market, according to a new Wood Mackenzie report.

The U.S. is on track to add a record 14.6 gigawatts of new wind capacity in 2020, despite Covid-19 impacts, and nearly 39 gigawatts during a three-year installation boom from 2019 to 2021, according to Wood Mackenzie’s 2019 North America Wind Power Outlook.

But the market’s trajectory begins to look highly uncertain from the early 2020s onward, and solar is one of the main reasons why.

Since the dawn of the modern American renewables market, the wind and solar sectors have largely been allies on the national stage, benefiting from many of the same favorable government plans and sharing big-picture goals. Until recently, wind and solar companies rarely found themselves in direct competition.

But the picture is changing as solar catches up to wind on cost and the grid penetration of renewables surges. What was once a vague alliance between the two fastest growing renewables technologies could morph into a serious rivalry.

While many project developers are now active in both sectors, including NextEra Energy Resources, Invenergy and EDF, the country’s thriving base of wind manufacturers could face tougher days ahead.

 

The ITC's inherent advantage

At this point, wind remains solar’s bigger sibling in many ways.

The U.S. has nearly 100 gigawatts of installed wind capacity today, compared to around 67 gigawatts of solar. With their substantially higher capacity factors, wind farms generated four times more power for the U.S. grid last year than utility-scale solar plants, for a combined wind-solar share of 8.2 percent, according to government figures, even as renewables are projected to reach one-fourth of U.S. electricity generation. (Distributed PV systems further add to solar’s contribution.)

But it's long been clear that wind would lose its edge at some point. The annual solar market now regularly tops wind. The cost of solar energy is falling more rapidly, and appears to have more runway for further reduction. Solar’s inherent generation pattern is more valuable in many markets, delivering power during peak-demand hours, while the wind often blows strongest at night.

 

And then there’s the matter of the solar ITC.

In 2015, both wind and solar secured historic multi-year extensions to their main federal subsidies. The extensions gave both industries the longest period of policy clarity they’ve ever enjoyed, setting in motion a tidal wave of installations set to crest over the next few years.

Even back in 2015, however, it was clear that solar got the better deal in Washington, D.C.

While the wind production tax credit (PTC) began phasing down for new projects almost immediately, solar developers were given until the end of 2019 to qualify projects for the full ITC.

And critically, while the wind PTC drops to nothing after its sunset, commercially owned solar projects will remain eligible for a 10 percent ITC forever, based on the existing legislation. Over time, that amounts to a huge advantage for solar.

In another twist, the solar industry is now openly fighting for an extension of the 30 percent ITC, while the wind industry seemingly remains cooler on the prospect of pushing for a similar prolongation — having said the current PTC extension would be the last.

 

Plenty of tailwinds, too

Wood Mackenzie's report catalogues multiple factors that could work for or against the wind market in the "uncharted" post-PTC years, many of them, including the Covid-19 crisis, beyond the industry’s direct control.

If things go well, annual installations could bounce back to near-record levels by 2027 after a mid-decade contraction, the report says. But if they go badly, installations could remain depressed at 4 gigawatts or below from 2022 through most of the coming decade, and that includes an anticipated uplift from the offshore market.

An extension of the solar ITC without additional wind support would “severely compound” the wind market’s struggle to rebound in the 2020s, the report says. The already-evident shift in corporate renewables procurement from wind to solar could intensify dramatically.

The other big challenge for wind in the 2020s is the lack of progress on transmission infrastructure that would connect potentially massive low-cost wind farms in interior states with bigger population centers. A hoped-for national infrastructure package that might address the issue has not materialized.

Even so, many in the wind business remain cautiously optimistic about the post-PTC years, with a wind jobs forecast bolstering sentiment, and developers continue to build out longer-term project pipelines.

Turbine technology continues to improve. And an extension of the solar ITC is far from assured.

Other factors that could work in wind’s favor in the years ahead include:

The nascent offshore sector, which despite lingering regulatory uncertainty at the federal level looks set to blossom into a multi-gigawatt annual market by the mid-2020s, in line with an offshore wind forecast that highlights substantial growth potential. Lobbying efforts for an offshore wind ITC extension are gearing up, offering a potential area for cooperation between wind and solar.

The potential linkage of policy support for energy storage to wind projects, building on the current linkage with solar.

Growing electric vehicle sales and a shift toward time-of-use retail electricity billing, which could boost power demand during off-peak hours when wind generation is strong.

The land-use advantages wind farms have over solar in some agricultural regions.

 

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"Knowledge Gap" Is Contributing To On-the-job Electrical Injuries

BC Hydro Trades Electrical Safety addresses electric contact incidents among trade workers, emphasizing power line hazards, overhead lines clearance, the 3 m rule, jobsite planning, and safety training to prevent injuries during spring and summer.

 

Key Points

BC Hydro Trades Electrical Safety is guidance and training to reduce power-line contact risks for trade workers.

✅ Stay at least 3 m from overhead power lines and equipment

✅ Plan worksites and spot hazards before starting tasks

✅ Use BC Hydro electrical awareness training near electricity

 

A BC Hydro report finds serious electrical contact incidents are more common among trades workers, and research shows this is partly due to a knowledge gap in the electricity sector in Canada.

Trade workers were involved in more than 60 per cent of electric contact incidents that led to serious injuries over the last three years, according to BC Hydro.

One-in-five trade workers have also either made contact or had a close call with electric equipment.

A recent worksite electrocution case underscores the consequences of contact.

“New research finds many have had a close call with electricity on the job or have witnessed unsafe work near overhead lines or electrical equipment,” BC Hydro staff said in the report.

“A gap in electrical safety knowledge is a contributing factor in most of these incidents.”

Most electrical contact incidents take place in the spring and summer, when trade workers are working outdoors and are working in close proximity to power lines.

BC Hydro offered tips for trades workers who may work closely to possible electrical contact points:

  • Look up and down – Observe the site beforehand and plan work so you can avoid contact with power lines
  • Stay back – You and your tools should stay at least 3 m away from an overhead power line
  • Call for help – If you come across a fallen power line, or a tree branch or object contacts a line—stay back 10 metres and call 911. Never try and move it yourself. If you must work closer than 3 m to a power line at your worksite, call BC Hydro before you begin.
  • Learn about the risks – BC Hydro offers in-person and online electrical awareness training, such as arc flash training, for anyone who works near electricity.

The report found that 38 per cent of trades workers who participated in the report said they only feel “somewhat informed” about safety measures around working near electricity and 71 per cent were unable to identify the correct distance they should be away from active power lines or electrical equipment.

BC Hydro said trade workers should participate in its electrical awareness training courses, including arc flash training, to make sure all safety measures are taken.

 

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Cryptocurrency firm in Plattsburgh fights $1 million electric charge

Coinmint Plattsburgh Dispute spotlights cryptocurrency mining, hydropower electricity rates, a $1M security deposit, Public Service Commission rulings, municipal utility policies, and seasonal migration to Massena data centers as Bitcoin price volatility pressures operations.

 

Key Points

Legal and energy-cost dispute over crypto mining, a $1,019,503 deposit, and operations in Plattsburgh and Massena.

✅ PSC allows higher rates and requires large security deposits.

✅ Winter electricity spikes drove a $1M deposit calculation.

✅ Coinmint shifted capacity to Massena data centers.

 

A few years ago, there was a lot of buzz about the North Country becoming the next Silicon Valley of cryptocurrency, even as Maine debated a 145-mile line that could reshape regional power flows. One of the companies to flock here was Coinmint. The cryptomining company set up shop in Plattsburgh in 2017 and declared its intentions to be a good citizen.

Today, Coinmint is fighting a legal battle to avoid paying the city’s electric utility more than $1 million owed for a security deposit. In addition to that dispute, a local property manager says the firm was evicted from one of its Plattsburgh locations.

Companies like Coinmint chose to come to the North Country because of the relatively low electricity prices here, thanks in large part to the hydropower dam on the St. Lawrence River in Massena, and regionally, projects such as the disputed electricity corridor have drawn attention to transmission costs and access. Coinmint operates its North Country Data Center facilities in Plattsburgh and Massena. In both locations, racks of computer servers perform complex calculations to generate cryptocurrency, such as bitcoin.

When cryptomining began to take off in Plattsburgh, the cost of one bitcoin was skyrocketing. That brought hype around the possibility of big business and job creation in the North Country. But cryptomininers like Coinmint were using massive amounts of energy in the winter of 2017-2018, and that season, electric bills of everyday Plattsburgh residents spiked.

Many cryptomining firms operate in a state of flux, beholden to the price of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, even as the end to the 'war on coal' declaration did little to change utilities' choices. When the price of one bitcoin hit $20,000 in 2017, it fell by 30% just days later. That’s one reason why the price of electricity is so critical for companies like Coinmint to turn a profit. 

Plattsburgh puts the brakes on “cryptocurrency mining”
In early 2018, Plattsburgh passed a moratorium on cryptocurrency mining operations, after residents complained of higher-than-usual electric bills.

“Your electric bill’s $100, then it’s at $130. Why? It’s because these guys that are mining the bitcoins are riding into town, taking advantage of a situation,” said resident Andrew Golt during a 2018 public hearing.

Coinmint aimed to assuage the worries of residents and other businesses. “At the end of the day we want to be a good citizen in whatever communities we’re in,” Coinmint spokesman Kyle Carlton told NCPR at that 2018 meeting.

“We’re open to working with those communities to figure out whatever solutions are going to work.”

The ban was lifted in Feb. 2019. However, since it didn’t apply to companies that were already mining cryptocurrency in Plattsburgh, Coinmint has operated in the city all along.

Coinmint challenges attempt to protect ratepayers
New rules passed by the New York Public Service Commission in March 2018 allow municipal power authorities including Plattsburgh’s to charge big energy users such as Coinmint higher electricity rates, amid customer backlash in other utility deals. The new rules also require them to put down a security deposit to ensure their bills get paid.

But Coinmint disputes that deposit charge. The company has been embroiled in a legal fight for nearly a year against Plattsburgh Municipal Lighting Department (PMLD) in an attempt to avoid paying the electric utility’s security deposit bill of $1,019,503. That bill is based on an estimate of what would cover two months of electricity use if a company were to leave town without paying its electric bills.

Coinmint would not discuss the dispute on the record with NCPR. Legal documents show the firm argues the deposit charge is inflated, based on a flawed calculation resulting in a charge hundreds of thousands of dollars higher than what it should be.

“Essentially they’re arguing that they should only have to put up some average of their monthly bills without accounting for the fact that winter bills are significantly higher than the average,” said Ken Podolny, an attorney representing the Plattsburgh utility.

The company took legal action in February 2019 against PMLD in the hopes New York’s energy regulator, the Public Service Commission, would agree with Coinmint that the deposit charge was too high. An informal commission hearing officer disagreed, and ruled in October the charge was calculated correctly.

Coinmint appealed the ruling in November and a hearing on the appeal could come as soon as February.

Less than a week after Coinmint lost its initial challenge of the deposit charge, the company made a splashy announcement trumpeting its plans to “migrate its Plattsburgh, New York infrastructure to its Massena, New York location for the 2019-2020 winter season.”

The announcement made no mention of the appeal or the recent ruling against Coinmint. The company attributed its new plan to “exceptionally-high” electricity rates in Plattsburgh, as hydropower transmission projects elsewhere in New England faced their own controversies. 

"We recognize some in the Plattsburgh community have blamed our operation for pushing rates higher for everyone so, while we disagree with that assessment, we hope this seasonal migration will have a positive impact on rates for all our neighbors,” said Coinmint cofounder Prieur Leary in the press statement.

“In the event that doesn't happen, we trust the community will look for the real answers for these high costs." Prieur Leary has since been removed from the corporate team page on the company’s website.

The company still operates in Plattsburgh at one of its locations in the city. As for staff, while at least two Coinmint employees have moved from Plattsburgh to Massena, where the company operates a data center inside a former Alcoa aluminum plant, it is unclear how many people in total have made the move.

Coinmint left its second Plattsburgh location in 2019. The company would not discuss that move on the record, yet the circumstances of the departure are murky.

The local property manager of the industrial park site told NCPR, “I have no comment on our evicted tenant Coinmint.” The property owner, California’s Karex Property Management Services, also would not comment regarding the situation, noting that “all staff have been told to not discuss anything regarding our past tenant Coinmint.”

Today, Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are worth a fraction of what they were back in 2017 when Coinmint came to the North Country, and now, amid a debate over Bitcoin's electricity use shaping market sentiment, the future of the entire industry here remains uncertain.

 

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Electricity deal clinches $100M bitcoin mining operation in Medicine Hat

Medicine Hat Bitcoin Mining Deal delivers 42 MW electricity to Hut 8, enabling blockchain data centres, cryptocurrency mining expansion, and economic diversification in Alberta with low-cost power, land lease, and rapid construction near Unit 16.

 

Key Points

A pact to supply 42 MW and lease land, enabling Hut 8's blockchain data centres and crypto mining growth in Alberta.

✅ 42 MW electricity from city; land lease near Unit 16

✅ Hut 8 expands to 60.7 MW; blockchain data centres

✅ 100 temporary jobs; 42 ongoing roles in Alberta

 

The City of Medicine Hat has agreed to supply electricity and lease land to a Toronto-based cryptocurrency mining company, at a time when some provinces are pausing large new crypto loads in a deal that will see $100 million in construction spending in the southern Alberta city.

The city will provide electric energy capacity of about 42 megawatts to Hut 8 Mining Corp., which will construct bitcoin mining facilities near the city's new Unit 16 power plant.

The operation is expected to be running by September and will triple the company's operating power to 60.7 megawatts, Hut 8 said, amid broader investments in new turbines across Canada.

#google#

"The signing of the electricity supply agreement and the land lease represents a key component in achieving our business plan for the roll-out of our BlockBox Data Centres in low-cost energy jurisdictions," said the company's board chairman, Bill Tai, in a release.

"[Medicine Hat] offers stable, cost-competitive utility rates and has been very welcoming and supportive of Hut 8's fast-paced growth plans."

In bitcoin mining operations, rows upon rows of power-consuming computers are used to solve mathematical puzzles in exchange for bitcoins and confirm crytopcurrency transactions. The verified transactions are then added to the public ledger known as the blockchain.

Hut 8's existing 18.7-megawatt mining operation at Drumheller, Alta. — a gated compound filled with rows of shipping containers housing the computers — has so far mined 750 bitcoins. Bitcoin was trading Tuesday morning for about $11,180.

Medicine Hat Mayor Ted Clugston says the deal is part of the city's efforts to diversify its economy.

We've made economic development a huge priority down here because we were hit very, very hard by the oil and gas decline," he said, noting that being the generator and vendor of its own electricity puts the city in a uniquely good position.

"Really we're just turning gas into electricity and they're taking that electricity and turning it into blockchain, or ones and zeroes."

Elsewhere in Canada, using more electricity for heat has been urged by green energy advocates, reflecting broader electrification debates.

Hut 8 says construction of the facility is starting right away and will create about 100 temporary jobs. The project is expected to be finished by the third-quarter of this year.

The Medicine Hat mining operation will generate 42 ongoing jobs for electricians, general labourers, systems technicians and security staff.

 

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Electric shock: China power demand drops as coronavirus shutters plants

China Industrial Power Demand 2020 highlights COVID-19 disruption to electricity consumption as factory output stalls; IHS Markit estimates losses equal to Chile's usage, impacting thermal coal, LNG, and Hubei's industrial load.

 

Key Points

An analysis of COVID-19's hit to China's electricity use, cutting industry demand and fuel needs for coal and LNG.

✅ 73 billion kWh loss equals Chile's annual power use

✅ Cuts translate to 30m tonnes coal or 9m tonnes LNG

✅ Hubei peak load 21 percent below plan amid shutdowns

 

China’s industrial power demand in 2020 may decline by as much as 73 billion kilowatt hours (kWh), according to IHS Markit, as the outbreak of the coronavirus has curtailed factory output and prevented some workers from returning to their jobs.

FILE PHOTO: Smoke is seen from a cooling tower of a China Energy ultra-low emission coal-fired power plant during a media tour, in Sanhe, Hebei province, China July 18, 2019. REUTERS/Shivani Singh
The cut represents about 1.5% of industrial power consumption in China. But, as the country is the world’s biggest electricity consumer and analyses of China's electricity appetite routinely underscore its scale, the loss is equal to the power used in the whole of Chile and it illustrates the scope of the disruption caused by the outbreak.

The reduction is the energy equivalent of about 30 million tonnes of thermal coal, at a time when China aims to reduce coal power production, or about 9 million tonnes of liquefied natural gas (LNG), IHS said. The coal figure is more than China’s average monthly imports last year while the LNG figure is a little more than one month of imports, based on customs data.

China has tried to curtail the spread of the coronavirus that has killed more than 1,400 and infected over 60,000 by extending the Lunar New Year holiday for an extra week and encouraging people to work from home, measures that contributed to a global dip in electricity demand as well.

Last year, industrial users consumed 4.85 trillion kWh electricity, accounting for 67% of the country’s total, even as India's electricity demand showed sharp declines in the region.

Xizhou Zhou, the global head of power and Renewables at IHS Markit, said that in a severe case where the epidemic goes on past March, China’s economic growth will be only 4.2% during 2020, down from an initial forecast of 5.8%, while power consumption will climb by only 3.1%, down from 4.1% initially, even as power cuts and blackouts raise concerns.

“The main uncertainty is still how fast the virus will be brought under control,” said Zhou, adding that the impact on the power sector will be relatively modest from a full-year picture in 2020, even though China's electric power woes are already clouding solar markets.

In Hubei province, the epicenter of the virus outbreak, the peak power load at the end of January was 21% less than planned, mirroring how Japan's power demand was hit during the outbreak, data from Wood Mackenzie showed.

Industrial operating rates point to a firm reduction in power consumption in China.

Utilization rates at plastic processors are between 30% and 60% and the low levels are expected to last for another two week, according to ICIS China.

Weaving machines at textile plants are operating at below 10% of capacity, the lowest in five years, ICIS data showed. China is the world’s biggest textile and garment exporter.

 

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