Economy, efficiency and EVs
By Toronto Star
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To borrow a theme from Sesame Street, the year 2010 will be brought to you by the letter "E." Or at least it could be.
While the major actors that will influence the auto industry are readily identified, determining just what their effects will be is far from child's play.
At the beginning of 2009, with the global economy in freefall, I suggested that news about the state of the industry itself would overshadow anything about product and that the automotive industry would look different at the end of the year.
More than prescient predictions, they were simple statements of the obvious. Both forecasts, albeit it to a lesser degree, are likely valid for 2010 also.
While the world's economy is less fragile now than it was then, it is still far from stable. And while tentative signs of recovery have appeared, they remain just that – tentative.
In Canada, our situation is better than in most of the developed world. Full-year sales results have yet to be announced but all indications are they'll be somewhere around 12.5 per cent below 2008's numbers, which were the third-best ever.
That's a far better result than seemed likely when the year began and, barring some further economic calamity, it's expected to be a sustainable level for 2010, according to key industry analysts.
Nevertheless, 2009 took a big toll on the automotive landscape and the devastation will continue to play out through 2010.
Several brands have disappeared, or soon will, and almost 100 new-vehicle dealerships have closed across the country. As many as 200 more are likely to disappear during 2010, according to one expert close to the scene.
While the bankruptcies of Chrysler and General Motors and their emergence as new entities dominated the news coverage in 2009, neither they nor the rest of the industry are free of worry. There remains significant overcapacity in global production that has yet to be dealt with – particularly in Europe – and new capacity is being added in both China and India.
The bottom line: the shakeup in the industry is not over yet as the recent tie-up between Volkswagen and Suzuki, alliance talks between Mitsubishi and PSA (Peugeot/Citroen) and the tentative purchase of Volvo by China's Geely attest.
Who knows what strange bedfellows might seek each other's comfort by the end of 2010?
On the product front, the inevitable march of technology will continue, with significant improvements in safety, comfort, and particularly information and communications systems at all price levels.
But most of the technological focus for this and the next several years will have to be on efficiency, emissions and environmental concerns in general. Strict new regulations in both the U.S. and Canada will make it so.
Foremost among those are U.S. CAFE (Corporate Average Fuel Economy) standards that begin tightening for 2011 models (which come to market this year) and will continue to become more strict to 2016, ultimately achieving a fleet average for new vehicles of 6.6 L/100 km (35.5 mpg).
The Canadian government has just released proposed standards to limit carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions that effectively parallel the U.S. CAFE standards. CO2 emissions, which are believed to be major contributors to climate change, are directly related to fuel consumption.
To say these aggressive targets represent a major challenge to automakers would be a gross understatement. They will necessitate measures that go far beyond the normal pace of technical evolution.
The most apparent and immediate will be engine downsizing, which is already taking place. Many 2010 models that previously came with only V6 engines are now, or soon will be, available with four-cylinder powerplants. And some of the current fours, as well as V6s, will get smaller as well.
To help regain access to power lost by downsizing, for those circumstances when it is really needed, turbocharging will become more commonplace – again. And direct injection on gasoline engines, which aids both power and efficiency, will become de rigueur.
Particular attention will be paid to internal friction losses with improved materials and machining practices in many applications. And the use of 0W20 engine oil will become commonplace, to absolutely minimize internal drag.
Other details already seen in a few applications will include electric air-conditioning compressors and coolant pumps as well as more widespread use of electric power steering. Anything to reduce engine load and thus conserve fuel.
Of course, multi-speed transmissions help that effort. Six-speeds are now becoming the norm and seven- and eight-speeds will become more available, although the popularity of CVTs (continuously variable transmissions) seems to have plateaued.
Even more attention will have to be paid to aerodynamic drag at lower speeds – in areas like the vehicle underbodies – and to tire rolling resistance.
In short, anything that might bring an improvement of a fraction of a L/100 km will get serious consideration.
All of which leads us to the final "E" – electricity.
The demands of the new regulations are more than likely to be achievable with just improved efficiencies to conventional automobiles – even with increased use of diesel powerplants added to the mix, which is likely to be part of the solution, espoused particularly by the Europeans.
That means greater reliance on electric power will probably become inevitable – a conclusion most of the world's automakers already seem to have reached.
Just what form that electric power takes, and in what proportion, remains to be resolved.
Almost certainly the market share claimed by hybrids is likely to increase if for no other reason than there's a number of new models available. Few manufacturers will be without at least one offering by the end of 2010 and several will market multiple models.
The bigger question mark is the impact of plug-in electric vehicles (EVs) – be they range-extended EVs like the Chevrolet Volt (technically a series-hybrid), plug-in variants of conventional hybrids like the Toyota Prius or pure battery electrics (BEVs) like the Nissan Leaf.
Production of all three, and more, is scheduled to begin either later this year or next, although none are likely to make it to the Canadian market until at least 2011.
Perhaps a bigger question mark than the cars themselves – one that must be addressed soon – is the source of and infrastructure requirements for delivery of the electricity they will require.
It is to be hoped that 2010 will bring answers to many of the questions still hanging over the industry. The one thing for sure is that it promises to be exciting, for consumers as well as those involved in any aspect of the automobile business – journalists included.
