Georgia Power president defends rate hike

By The Dalton Daily Citizen


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Georgia PowerÂ’s new president said that the electric utility had to raise prices to meet stricter emissions rules and maintain its system, but heÂ’s considering new ways to help customers cut costs.

W. Paul Bowers, 54, became president and CEO of the largest subsidiary in the Atlanta-based Southern Co.Â’s network on December 31, just as its customers were hit with a rate increase that will add more than $14 to the monthly power bill for an average home.

Raising prices was necessary to comply with stricter environmental rules on coal-fired power plants, build a new gas-fired plant and maintain the companyÂ’s transmission network, Bowers told The Associated Press in an interview. Critics assailed BowersÂ’ company for raising rates during an economic downturn that pushed unemployment to 10.1 percent, although Bowers said his firm invested billions of dollars in its business even in a sour economy.

“We didn’t stop it because our customers expect the lights to stay on, they expect us to be compliant with environmental law and they want us to have power for the growth of the future,” Bowers said.

Last month, GeorgiaÂ’s utility regulators at the Public Service Commission approved a settlement that not only hiked bills, but also gave BowersÂ’ company the ability to more quickly raise prices should its earnings fall below set targets. Normally, Georgia Power must file a new case with the commission to raise rates, a process that takes months, involves testimony, analysts and a greater say for critics.

Outgoing PSC commissioner Robert Baker voted against the settlement, saying it gave the utility too much. The Georgia chapter of the AARP wanted it rejected for raising customer costs by hundreds of millions of dollars more than necessary during one of the worst economies in a generation.

When asked, Bowers said he could not rule out another price increase before the current settlement expires at the start of 2014, particularly if Georgia suffers another deep recession.

“I hope not,” Bowers said. “You know, you never know.”

Georgia Power sought permission in July to more rapidly change its prices after weathering a drop in electricity usage and revenue during the Great Recession. Bowers said he watched as the Southern Co.Â’s power system went from adding up to 70,000 new customers annually to a net growth of less than 100 new customers in 2009.

“That made us step back and say, ’Is the three-year rate plan process the right process, and is there a way that we can adjust during these ups and downs in the economy?”’ said Bowers, formerly Southern Co.’s chief financial officer.

Bowers said his goals include giving customers more control over their electricity bills. For example, Bowers said Georgia Power is researching whether customers are willing to install systems that automatically turn off major appliances such as air conditioners when electricity costs peak, typically in the early evening.

Sensors installed on the compressor of an air conditioner can detect signals from the power grid and shut down the cooling system. Georgia Power experimented with a similar plan in the 1990s, although Bowers said customers never embraced it. If thereÂ’s enough demand, a new pricing plan could be created in six months to two years, Bowers said.

Industry executives are still debating how much money residents must save before they will voluntarily change their electricity usage. Bowers estimated that a system capable of shutting off air conditioners during peak times might shave a few dollars off a monthly household bill. ThatÂ’s not much compared to the $22 monthly increases that average Georgia Power households will see by 2013.

“Is that going to be of value to the customer?” he said. “When they walk in and it’s a little warmer in their home, are they willing to accept that?”

Bowers said his biggest long-term challenges include overseeing the construction of two nuclear reactors at Plant Vogtle near Waynesboro. ItÂ’s a project with big stakes for the entire nuclear industry. Georgia Power and its partners could be among the first in a generation to win permission to build a new reactor.

The federal government last gave permission to build a nuclear plant in 1978, just as shrinking electricity demand and a poor economy brought the industry to a near standstill. An accident the following year at the Three Mile Island nuclear plant in Pennsylvania added to the woes. Cost overruns and delays were endemic.

In a departure from the past, Georgia Power has picked an off-the-shelf reactor for the Vogtle expansion rather than a custom model, Bowers said. He also expects the utility will benefit from a streamlined review process from the Nuclear Regulatory Commission.

He argued that the Southern Co. subsidiary was uniquely positioned to build the capital-intensive project, since the firm is large, has access to cash and had experience with big construction projects. He said going forward now, rather than waiting, gave the utility more bargaining leverage.

“There is a benefit of being first associated with the first mover,” Bowers said, adding that Westinghouse Electric Co., the reactor supplier, and The Shaw Group, the construction contractor, are using Plant Vogtle as a demonstration project.

“This will be the first one in the United States,” he said. “They want it to be successful.”

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California Public Utilities Commission sides with community energy program over SDG&E

CPUC Decision on San Diego Community Power directs SDG&E to use updated forecasts, stabilizing electricity rates for CCA customers and supporting clean energy in San Diego with accurate rate forecasting and reduced volatility.

 

Key Points

A CPUC ruling directing SDG&E to use updated forecasts to ensure accurate, stable CCA rates and limit volatility.

✅ Uses 2021 sales forecasts for rate setting

✅ Aims to prevent undercollection and bill spikes

✅ Levels changes across customer classes

 

The California Public Utilities Commission on Thursday sided with the soon-to-launch San Diego community energy program in a dispute it had with San Diego Gas & Electric.

San Diego Community Power — which will begin to purchase power for customers in San Diego, Chula Vista, La Mesa, Encinitas and Imperial Beach later this year — had complained to the commission that data SDG&E intended to use to calculate rates, including community choice exit fees that could make the new energy program less attractive to prospective customers.

SDG&E argued it was using numbers it was authorized to employ as part of a general rate case amid a potential rate structure revamp that is still being considered by the commission.

But in a 4-0 vote, the commission, or CPUC, sided with San Diego Community Power and directed SDG&E to use an updated forecast for energy sales.

"This was not an easy decision," said CPUC president Marybel Batjer at the meeting, held remotely due to COVID-19 restrictions. "In my mind, this outcome best accounts for the shifting realities ... in the San Diego area while minimizing the impact on ratepayers during these difficult financial times."

In filings to the commission, SDG&E predicted a rate decrease of 12.35 percent in the coming year. While that appears to be good news for customers, Californians still face soaring electricity prices statewide, Commissioner Martha Guzman Aceves said the data set SDG&E wanted to use would lead to an undercollection of $150 million to $260 million.

That would result in rates that would be "artificially low," Guzman Aceves said, and rates "would inevitably go up quite a bit after the undercollection was addressed."

San Diego Community Power, or SDCP, said the temporary reduction would make its rates less attractive than SDG&E's, especially amid SDG&E's minimum charge proposal affecting low-usage customers, just as it is about to begin serving customers. SDCP's board members wrote an open letter last month to the commission, accusing the utility of "willful manipulation of data."

Working with an administrative law judge at the CPUC, Guzman Aceves authored a proposal requiring SDG&E to use numbers based on 2021 forecasts, as regulators simultaneously weigh whether the state needs more power plants to ensure reliability. The utility argued that could result in an increase of "roughly 40 percent" for medium and large commercial and industrial customers this year.

To help reduce potential volatility, Guzman Aceves, SDCP and other community energy supporters called for using a formula that would average out changes in rates across customer classes amid debates over income-based utility charges statewide. That's what the commissioners OK'd Thursday.

"It is essential that customer commodity rates be as accurate as we can possibly get them to avoid undercollections," said Commissioner Genevieve Shiroma.

San Diego Community Power is one of 23 community choice aggregation, or CCA, energy programs that have launched in California in the past decade.

CCAs compete with traditional power companies amid California's evolving power competition landscape, in one important role — purchasing power for a given community. They were created to boost the use of cleaner energy sources, such as wind and solar, at rates equal to or lower than investor-owned utilities.

However, CCAs do not replace utilities because the incumbent power companies still perform all of the tasks outside of power purchasing, such as transmission and distribution of energy and customer billing.

When a CCA is formed, California rules stipulate the utility customers in that area are automatically enrolled in the CCA. If customers prefer to stay with their previous power company, they can opt out of joining the CCA.

The shift of customers from SDG&E to San Diego Community Power is expected to be large. The total number of accounts for SDCP is expected to be 770,000, which would make it the second-largest CCA in the state. That's why SDCP considered Thursday's CPUC decision to be so important.

"At a time when customers are choosing between sticking with San Diego Gas & Electric and migrating to a CCA, we want them to have accurate bill information," said Commissioner Clifford Rechtschaffen.

"SDCP is very happy with today's CPUC decision, and that the commissioners shared our goal of limiting rate volatility for businesses and families in the region," said SDCP interim CEO Bill Carnahan. "This is definitely a win for accurate rate forecasting, and our mutual customers, and we look forward to working with SDG&E on next steps."

In an email, SDG&E spokeswoman Helen Gao said, "We are committed to continuing to work collaboratively with local Community Choice Aggregation programs to support their successful launch in 2021 and ensure that our mutual customers receive excellent customer service."

San Diego Community Power's case before the CPUC was joined by the California Community Choice Association, a trade group advocating for CCAs, and the Clean Energy Alliance — the North County-based CCA representing Del Mar, Solana Beach and Carlsbad that is scheduled to launch this summer.

SDCP will begin its rollout this year, folding in about 71,000 municipal, commercial and industrial accounts. The bulk of its roughly 700,000 residential accounts is expected to come in January 2022.

 

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Alberta Proposes Electricity Market Changes

Alberta Electricity Market Reforms aim to boost grid reliability and efficiency through a day-ahead market, transmission policy changes, clearer pricing signals, AESO oversight, and smarter siting near existing infrastructure to lower consumer costs.

 

Key Points

Policies add a day-ahead market and transmission fees to modernize the grid and improve reliability.

✅ Day-ahead market for clearer pricing and scheduling

✅ Up-front, non-refundable transmission payments by generators

✅ AESO to draft new rules by end of 2025

 

The Alberta government is implementing significant electricity policy changes to its electricity market to enhance system reliability and efficiency. These reforms aim to modernize the grid, accommodate growing energy demands, and align with best practices observed in other jurisdictions.

Proposed Market Reforms

The government has outlined several key initiatives:

  • Day-Ahead Market Implementation: Introducing a day-ahead market is intended to provide clearer pricing signals and improve the scheduling of electricity generation. This approach allows market participants to plan and commit to energy production in advance, enhancing grid stability.

  • Transmission Policy Revisions: The government proposes reforms to transmission policies, including the introduction of up-front and non-refundable transmission payments from new power generators. These payments would vary based on the proximity of new generators to existing transmission lines with available capacity. As part of a broader market overhaul, this strategy encourages the development of power plants in areas where existing infrastructure can be utilized, potentially reducing costs for consumers and businesses.

Government's Objectives

Minister of Affordability and Utilities, Nathan Neudorf, emphasized that these changes are necessary to meet growing energy demands and modernize Alberta’s electricity system. The government's goal is to create a more reliable and efficient electrical system that benefits both consumers and the broader economy.

Industry Reactions

The proposed reforms have elicited mixed reactions from industry stakeholders amid profound sector change across Alberta:

  • Renewable Energy Sector Concerns: The Canadian Renewable Energy Association (CanREA) has expressed concerns about the potential for punitive market and transmission changes, and some retailers have similarly urged caution. They advocate for policies that support the integration of renewable energy sources and ensure fair treatment within the market.

  • Regulatory Oversight: The Alberta Electric System Operator (AESO) is tasked with preparing restructured energy market rules by the end of 2025. This timeline reflects the government's commitment to a thorough and consultative approach to market reform.

Implications for Consumers

The Alberta government's proposed market changes aim to enhance the reliability and efficiency of the electricity system by considering measures such as a Rate of Last Resort to provide additional stability. By encouraging the development of power plants in areas with existing infrastructure, the reforms seek to reduce costs for consumers and businesses. However, the success of these initiatives will depend on careful implementation and ongoing engagement with all stakeholders to balance the diverse interests involved.

Alberta's proposed electricity market reforms represent a significant step toward modernizing the province's energy infrastructure. By introducing a day-ahead market and revising transmission policies, the government aims to create a more reliable and efficient electrical system and promote market competition more effectively. While these changes have generated diverse reactions, they underscore the government's commitment to addressing the evolving energy needs of Alberta's residents and businesses.

 

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Prepare for blackouts across the U.S. as summer takes hold

US Summer Grid Blackout Risk: NERC and FERC warn of strained reliability as drought, heat waves, and transmission constraints hit MISO, hydro, and renewables, elevating blackout exposure and highlighting demand response and storage solutions.

 

Key Points

A forecast of summer power shortfalls across the US grid, driven by heat, drought, transmission limits, and a changing resource mix.

✅ NERC and FERC warn of elevated blackout risk and reliability gaps.

✅ MISO region strained by drought, heat, and limited hydro.

✅ Mitigations: demand response, storage, and stronger transmission.

 

Just when it didn’t seem things couldn’t get worse — gasoline at $5 to $8 a gallon, supply shortages in everything from baby formula to new cars — comes the devastating news that many of us will endure electricity blackouts this summer, and that the U.S. has more blackouts than other developed nations according to one study.

The alarm was sounded by the nonprofit North American Electric Reliability Corp. and the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, following a recent power grid report card highlighting vulnerabilities.

The North American electric grid is the largest machine on earth and the most complex, incorporating everything from the wonky pole you see at the roadside with a bird’s nest of wires to some of the most sophisticated engineering ever devised. It runs in real-time, even more so than the air traffic control system: All the airplanes in the sky don’t have to land at the same time, but electricity must be there at the flick of every switch.

Except it may not always be there this summer. Rod Kuckro, a respected energy journalist, says it depends on Mother Nature, with extreme weather impacts increasingly straining the grid, but the prognosis isn’t good.

Speaking on “White House Chronicle,” the weekly news and public affairs program on PBS that I host and produce, Kuckro said: “There is a confluence of factors that could affect energy supply across the majority of the (lower) 48 states. These are continued reduced hydroelectric production in the West, and the continued drought in the Southwest.”

The biggest threat to power supply, according to the NERC and the FERC, is in the vast central region, reaching from Manitoba in Canada, where grids are increasingly exposed to harsh weather in recent years, down to the Gulf of Mexico. It is served by the regional transmission organization, the Midcontinent Independent System Operator.

These operational entities are nonprofit companies that organize and distribute their regions’ bulk power for utilities. In California, it is the California Independent System Operator, working to keep the lights on as the state enters a new energy era; in the Mid-Atlantic, it is PJM; and in the Northeast, it is the New England System Independent Operator. They generate no power, but they control power flows and could initiate brownouts and blackouts.

With record storm activity and high temperatures predicted this summer, blackouts are likely to be deadly. The old, the young and the sick are all vulnerable. If the electric supply fails, with it goes everything from air conditioning to refrigeration to lights and even the ability to pump gas or access money from ATMs.

The United States, along with other modern nations, runs on electricity and when that falls short, it is catastrophic. It is chaos writ large, especially if the failure lasts more than a few hours.

On the same episode of “White House Chronicle,” Daniel Brooks, vice president of integrated grid and energy systems at the Electric Power Research Institute, also referred to a “confluence of factors” contributing to the impending electricity crisis. Brooks said, “We’re going through a significant change in terms of the energy mix and resources, and the way those resources behave under certain weather conditions.”

If power supply is stressed this summer, change in the generating mix will get a lot of political attention. At heart is the switch from fossil fuel generation to renewables. If there are power outages, a political storm will ensue. The Biden administration will be accused of speeding the switch to renewables, although the utilities don’t say that.

The weather is deteriorating, and, as experts note, the grid’s biggest challenge isn’t demand but climate change pressures that compound risks, and the grid is stretched in dealing with new realities as well as coping with old bugaboos, like the extreme difficulty in building transmission lines. Better transmission would relieve a lot of grid stress.

Peter Londa, president of Tantalus Systems, which helps its 260 utility customers digitize and cope with the new realities, explained some of the difficulties facing the utilities not only in the shifting sources of generation but also in the new shape of the electric demand. For example, he said, electric vehicles, particularly the much-awaited Ford F-150 Lightning pickup, could be an asset to homeowners and utilities, as California increasingly turns to batteries to stabilize its grid. During a blackout, their EVs could be used to power their homes for days. They could be a source of storage if thousands of owners signed up with their utilities in a storage program.

The fact is that utilities are facing three major shifts: in the generation to wind and solar, in customer demand, and especially in weather. Mother Nature is on a rampage and we all must adjust to that.
 

 

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Alberta shift from coal to cleaner energy

Alberta Coal-to-Gas Transition will retire coal units, convert plants to natural gas, boost renewables, and affect electricity prices, with policy tools like a price cap and carbon tax shaping the power market.

 

Key Points

Shift retiring coal units and converting to natural gas and renewables, targeting coal elimination by 2030.

✅ TransAlta retires Sundance coal unit; more units convert to gas.

✅ Forward prices seen near $40 to low $50/MWh in 2018.

✅ 6.8-cent cap shields consumers; carbon tax backstops costs.

 

The turn of the calendar to 2018 saw TransAlta retire one of its coal power generating units at its Sundance plant west of Edmonton and mothball another as it begins the transition to cleaner sources of energy across Alberta.

The company will say goodbye to three more units over the next year and a half to prepare them for conversion to natural gas.

This is part of a fundamental shift in Alberta, which will see coal power retired ahead of schedule by 2030, replaced by a mix of natural gas and renewable sources.

“We’re going to see that transition continue right up from now until 2030, and likely beyond 2030 as wind generation starts to outpace coal and new technologies become available.”

Coal has long been the backbone of Alberta’s grid, currently providing nearly 40 per cent of the provinces power. Analysts believe removing it will come with a cost to consumers, according to a report on coal phase-out costs published recently.

“The open question over the next couple of years is whether they’re going to inch up gradually, or whether they’re going to inch up like they did in 2012 and 2013, by having periods of very high power prices.”

Albertans are currently paying historically low power prices, with generation costs last year averaging below $23/MWh, less than half of the average of the past 10 years.

A report released in mid-December by electricity consultant firm EDC Associates showed forward prices moving from the $40/MWh in the first three months of 2018, to the low $50/MWh range.

“The forwards tend to take several weeks to fully react to announcements, so its anticipated that prices will continue to gradually track upwards over the coming weeks,” the report reads.

The NDP government has taken steps to protect consumers against price surges. Last spring, a price cap of 6.8 cents/MWh was put in place until the spring of 2021, with any cost above that to be covered by carbon tax revenue.

 

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Electricity and water do mix: How electric ships are clearing the air on the B.C. coast

Hybrid Electric Ships leverage marine batteries, LNG engines, and clean propulsion to cut emissions in shipping. From ferries to cargo vessels, electrification and sustainability meet IMO regulations, Corvus Energy systems, and dockside fast charging.

 

Key Points

Hybrid electric ships use batteries with diesel or LNG engines to cut fuel and emissions and meet stricter IMO rules.

✅ LNG or diesel gensets recharge marine battery packs.

✅ Cuts CO2, NOx, and particulate emissions in port and at sea.

✅ Complies with IMO standards; enables quiet, efficient operations.

 

The river is running strong and currents are swirling as the 150-metre-long Seaspan Reliant slides gently into place against its steel loading ramp on the shores of B.C.'s silty Fraser River.

The crew hustles to tie up the ship, and then begins offloading dozens of transport trucks that have been brought over from Vancouver Island.

While it looks like many vessels working the B.C. coast, below decks, the ship is very different. The Reliant is a hybrid, partly powered by electricity, and joins BC Ferries' hybrid ships in the region, the seagoing equivalent of a Toyota Prius.

Down below decks, Sean Puchalski walks past a whirring internal combustion motor that can run on either diesel or natural gas. He opens the door to a gleaming white room full of electrical cables and equipment racks along the walls.

"As with many modes of transportation, we're seeing electrification, from electric planes to ferries," said Puchalski, who works with Corvus Energy, a Richmond, B.C. company that builds large battery systems for the marine industry.

In this case, the batteries are recharged by large engines burning natural gas.

"It's definitely the way of the future," said Puchalski.

The 10-year-old company's battery system is now in use on 200 vessels around the world. Business has spiked recently, driven by the need to reduce emissions, and by landmark projects such as battery-electric high-speed ferries taking shape in the U.S.

"When you're building a new vessel, you want it to last for, say, 30 years. You don't want to adopt a technology that's on the margins in terms of obsolescence," said Puchalski. "You want to build it to be future-proof."

 

Dirty ships

For years, the shipping industry has been criticized for being slow to clean up its act. Most ships use heavy fuel oil, a cheap, viscous form of petroleum that produces immense exhaust. According to the European Commission, shipping currently pumps out about 940 million tonnes of CO2 each year, nearly three per cent of the global total.

That share is expected to climb even higher as other sectors reduce emissions.

When it comes to electric ships, Scandinavia is leading the world. Several of the region's car and passenger ferries are completely battery powered — recharged at the dock by relatively clean hydro power, and projects such as Kootenay Lake's electric-ready ferry show similar progress in Canada.

 

Tougher regulations and retailer pressure

The push for cleaner alternatives is being partly driven by worldwide regulations, with international shipping regulators bringing in tougher emission standards after a decade of talk and study, while financing initiatives are helping B.C. electric ferries scale up.

At the same time, pressure is building from customers, such as Mountain Equipment Co-op, which closely tracks its environmental footprint. Kevin Lee, who heads MEC's supply chain, said large companies are realizing they are accountable for their contributions to climate change, from the factory to the retail floor.

"You're hearing more companies build it into their DNA in terms of how they do business, and that's cool to see," said Lee. "It's not just MEC anymore trying to do this, there's a lot more partners out there."

In the global race to cut emissions, all kinds of options are on the table for ships, including giant kites being tested to harvest wind power at sea, and ports piloting hydrogen-powered cranes to cut dockside emissions.

Modern versions of sailing ships are also being examined to haul cargo with minimal fuel consumption.

But in practical terms, hybrids and, in the future, pure electrics are likely to play a larger role in keeping the propellers turning along Canada's coast, with neighboring fleets like Washington State Ferries' upgrade underscoring the shift.

 

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India's electricity demand falls at the fastest pace in at least 12 years

India Industrial Output Slowdown deepens as power demand slumps, IIP contracts, and electricity, manufacturing, and mining weaken; capital goods plunge while RBI rate cuts struggle to lift GDP growth, infrastructure, and fuel demand.

 

Key Points

A downturn where IIP contracts as power demand, manufacturing, mining, and capital goods fall despite RBI rate cuts.

✅ IIP fell 4.3% in Sep, worst since Feb 2013.

✅ Power demand dropped for a third month, signaling weak industry.

✅ Capital goods output plunged 20.7%, highlighting weak investment.

 

India's power demand fell at the fastest pace in at least 12 years in October, signalling a continued decline in the industrial output, mirroring how China's power demand dropped when plants were shuttered, according to government data. Electricity has about 8% weighting in the country's index for industrial production.

India needs electricity to fuel its expanding economy and has at times rationed coal supplies when demand surged, but a third decline in power consumption in as many months points to tapering industrial activity in a nation that aims to become a $5 trillion economy by 2024.

India's industrial output fell at the fastest pace in over six years in September, adding to a series of weak indicators that suggests that the country’s economic slowdown is deep-rooted and interest rate cuts alone may not be enough to revive growth.

Annual industrial output contracted 4.3% in September, government data showed on Monday. It was the worst performance since a 4.4% contraction in February 2013, according to Refinitiv data.

Analysts polled by Reuters had forecast industrial output to fall 2% for the month.

“A contraction of industrial production by 4.3% in September is serious and indicative of a significant slowdown as both investment and consumption demand have collapsed,” said Rupa Rege Nitsure, chief economist of L&T Finance Holdings.

The industrial output figure is the latest in a series of worrying economic data in Asia's third largest economy, which is also the world's third-largest electricity producer as well.

Economists say that weak series of data could mean economic growth for July-September period will remain near April-June quarter levels of 5%, which was a six-year low, and some analysts argue for rewiring India's electricity to bolster productivity. The Indian government is likely to release April-September economic growth figures by the end of this month.

Subdued inflation and an economic slowdown have prompted the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to cut interest rates by a total of 135 basis points this year, while coal and electricity shortages eased in recent months.

“These are tough times for the RBI, as it cannot do much about it but there will be pressures on it to act ...Blunt tools like monetary policy may not be effective anymore,” Nitsure said.

Data showed in September mining sector fell 8.5%, while manufacturing and electricity fell 3.9% and 2.6% respectively, even as imported coal volumes rose during April-October. Capital goods output during the month fell 20.7%, indicating sluggish demand.

“IIP (Index of Industrial Production) growth in October 2019 is also likely to be in negative territory and only since November 2019 one can expect mild IIP expansion, said Devendra Kumar Pant, Chief Economist and Senior Director, Public Finance, India Ratings & Research (Fitch Group).

Infrastructure output, which comprises eight main sectors, in September showed a contraction of 5.2%, the worst in 14 years, even as global daily electricity demand fell about 15% during pandemic lockdowns.

India's fuel demand fell to its lowest in more than two years in September, with consumption of diesel to its lowest levels since January 2017. Diesel and gasoline together make up over 7.4% of the IIP weightage.

In 2019/20 India's fuel demand — also seen as an indicator of economic and industrial activity — is expected to post the slowest growth in about six years.

 

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