Newfoundland Electricity Rebate In The Offing

IESO Fictitious Demand Error inflated HOEP in the Ontario electricity market, after embedded generation was mis-modeled; the OEB says double-counted load lifted wholesale prices and shifted costs via the Global Adjustment.

Key Points

An IESO modeling flaw that double-counted load, inflating HOEP and charges in Ontario's wholesale market.

✅ Double-counted unmetered load from embedded generation

✅ Inflated HOEP; shifted costs via Global Adjustment

✅ OEB flagged transparency; exporters paid more

For almost a year, the operator of Ontario’s electricity system erroneously counted enough phantom demand to power a small city, causing prices to spike and hundreds of millions of dollars in extra charges to consumers, according to the provincial energy regulator.

The Independent Electricity System Operator (IESO) also failed to tell anyone about the error once it noticed and fixed it.

The error likely added between $450 million and $560 million to hourly rates and other charges before it was fixed in April 2017, according to a report released this month by the Ontario Energy Board’s Market Surveillance Panel.

It did this by adding as much as 220 MW of “fictitious demand” to the market starting in May 2016, when the IESO started paying consumers who reduced their demand for power during peak periods. This involved the integration of small-scale embedded generation (largely made up of solar) into its wholesale model for the first time.

The mistake assumed maximum consumption at such sites without meters, and double-counted that consumption.

The OEB said the mistake particularly hurt exporters and some end-users, who did not benefit from a related reduction of a global adjustment rate applicable to other customers.

“The most direct impact of the increase in HOEP (Hourly Ontario Energy Price) was felt by Ontario consumers and exporters of electricity, who paid an artificially high HOEP, to the benefit of generators and importers,” the OEB said.

The mix-up did not result in an equivalent increase in total system costs, because changes to the HOEP are offset by inverse changes to a electricity cost allocation mechanism such as the Global Adjustment rate, the OEB noted.

A chart from the OEB's report shows the time of day when fictitious demand was added to the system, and its influence on hourly rates.

Peak time spikes
The OEB said that the fictitious demand “regularly inflated” the hourly price of energy and other costs calculated as a direct function of it.

For almost a year, Ontario's electricity system operator @IESO_Tweets erroneously counted enough phantom demand to power a small city, causing price spikes and hundreds of millions in charges to consumers, @OntEnergyBoard says. @5thEstate reports.

It estimated the average increase to the HOEP was as much as $4.50/MWh, but that price spikes, compounded by scheduled OEB rate changes, would have been much higher during busier times, such as the mid-morning and early evening.

“In times of tight supply, the addition of fictitious demand often had a dramatic inflationary impact on the HOEP,” the report said.

That meant on one summer evening in 2016 the hourly rate jumped to $1,619/MWh, it said, which was the fourth highest in the history of the Ontario wholesale electricity market.

“Additional demand is met by scheduling increasingly expensive supply, thus increasing the market price. In instances where supply is tight and the supply stack is steep, small increases in demand can cause significant increases in the market price.

The OEB questioned why, as of September this year, the IESO had failed to notify its customers or the broader public, amid a broader auditor-regulator dispute that drew political attention, about the mistake and its effect on prices.

“It's time for greater transparency on where electricity costs are really coming from,” said Sarah Buchanan, clean energy program manager at Environmental Defence.

“Ontario will be making big decisions in the coming years about whether to keep our electricity grid clean, or burn more fossil fuels to keep the lights on,” she added. “These decisions need to be informed by the best possible evidence, and that can't happen if critical information is hidden.”

In a response to the OEB report on Monday, the IESO said its own initial analysis found that the error likely pushed wholesale electricity payments up by $225 million. That calculation assumed that the higher prices would have changed consumer behaviour, while upcoming electricity auctions were cited as a way to lower costs, it said.

In response to questions, a spokesperson said residential and small commercial consumers would have saved $11 million in electricity costs over the 11-month period, even as a typical bill increase loomed province-wide, while larger consumers would have paid an extra $14 million.

That is because residential and small commercial customers pay some costs via time-of-use rates, including a temporary recovery rate framework, the IESO said, while larger customers pay them in a way that reflects their share of overall electricity use during the five highest demand hours of the year.

The IESO said it could not compensate those that had paid too much, given the complexity of the system, and that the modelling error did not have a significant impact on ratepayers.

While acknowledging the effects of the mistake would vary among its customers, the IESO said the net market impact was less than $10 million, amid ongoing legislation to lower electricity rates in Ontario.

It said it would improve testing of its processes prior to deployment and agreed to publicly disclose errors that significantly affect the wholesale market in the future.

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Crosbie Hydro Energy Action Plan outlines rate mitigation for Muskrat Falls, leveraging Nalcor oil revenues, export sales, Holyrood savings, and potential Hydro-Quebec taxation to keep Newfoundland and Labrador electricity rates near 14.67 cents/kWh.

Key Points

PC plan to cap post-Muskrat rates by using Nalcor revenues, exports, and savings, with optional Accord funds.

✅ $575.4M yearly to hold rates near 14.67 cents/kWh

✅ Sources: Nalcor oil $231M, Holyrood $150M, rates/dividends $123.4M

✅ Options: export sales, restructuring, Atlantic Accord, HQ tax

Newfoundland and Labrador PC Leader Ches Crosbie says Muskrat Falls won't drive up electricity rates, a goal consistent with an agreement to shield ratepayers from cost overruns, if he's elected premier.

According to Crosbie, who presented the party's Crosbie Hydro Energy Action Plan — acronym CHEAP — at a press conference Monday, $575.4 million is needed per year in order to keep rates from ballooning past 14.67 cents per kilowatt hour.

Here's where he thinks the money could come from:

• Hydro rates and dividends — $123.4 million
• Export sales — $40.1 million
• Nalcor restructuring — $30 million
• Holyrood savings — $150  million
• Nalcor oil revenue — $231 million

The oil money, Crosbie said, isn't going into government coffers but being invested into the offshore which, he said, is a good place for it.

"But the plan from the beginning around Muskrat Falls was that if there was need for it — for mitigation for rates — that those revenues and operating cash flows from Nalcor oil and gas would be available to be recycled into rate mitigation, as reflected in a recent financial update on the pandemic's impact. and that's what we're going to have to do," he said.

According to Crosbie, his numbers come from the preliminary stage of the Public Utilities Board process, even as rate mitigation talks have lacked public details.

This is a recent aerial view of the Muskrat Falls project in central Labrador. The project is more than 90 per cent complete, with first power forecast for late 2019, alongside Ottawa's $5.2B support for the project. (Nalcor)

"I'm telling you this is the best information available to anyone outside of government," he said. "We're working on what we can."

The PUB estimated Nalcor restructuring could save between $10 million and $15 million, according to Crosbie, but he figures there's "enough duplication and overpayment involved in the way things are now set up that we can find $30 million there."

Currently, provincial ratepayers pay about 12 cents per kilowatt hour as electricity users have started paying for Muskrat Falls costs.

Crosbie's $575.4-million figure would put rates at 14.67 cents per kilowatt-hour in 2021, where his plan pledges to keep them.

A recent Public Utilities Board Report says there's a potential $10 million to $15 million in savings from Nalcor, but Crosbie says he can find $30 million. (CBC)

"The promise is that Muskrat Falls, when it comes online — comes in service — will not increase your rates. Between now and when that happens there are rate increases already in the pipeline up to that level of [14.67 cents per kilowatt-hour] … so that is the baseline target rate at which rates will be kept.

"In other words, Muskrat will not drive up prices for electricity to consumers beyond that point."

In addition to those savings, Crosbie's plan outlined two further steps.

"We think it could be done out of the resources that I've just identified now, but if there's a problem with that, and as a temporary measure, we can use a modest amount of the Atlantic Accord review, fiscal review, revenues," he said.

Plan 'nothing new'

Premier Dwight Ball slammed the plan at the House of Assembly on Monday, saying it lacked insight.

"It was a copy and paste exercise," he told reporters. "There's nothing new in that plan. Not at all."

"We're not leaving any stone unturned of where the opportunity would be to actually generate revenue," he said.  "We are genuinely concerned about rate mitigation and we've got to get a plan in place."

Potential to tax Hydro-Québec

Crosbie also said there's potential to tax Hydro-Québec.

According to Crosbie, tax exemptions that expired in 2016 allow the province to tax exports from the Upper Churchill, which, he said, could result in "hundreds of millions or billions" in revenue.

"It's not my philosophy to immediately go and do that because that would generate litigation — who needs more of that? — but we do need to let Quebec know that we're very aware of that, and aware of that opportunity, and invite them to come talk about a whole host of issues," Crosbie said.

Crosbie said the tax would also have to be applied to domestic consumption.

"But so massive is the potential revenue from the Upper Churchill export that there would be ways to mitigate that and negate the effect of that on consumers in the province."

Crosbie said with the Atlantic Accord revenue, he could still present a balanced budget by 2022.

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MARVEL microreactor debuts at Idaho National Laboratory as a 100 kW, liquid-metal-cooled, zero-emissions generator powering a nuclear microgrid, integrating wind and solar for firm, clean energy in advanced nuclear applications research.

Key Points

A 100 kW, liquid-metal-cooled INL reactor powering a nuclear microgrid and showcasing zero-emissions clean energy.

✅ 100 kW liquid-metal-cooled microreactor at INL

✅ Powers first nuclear microgrid for applications testing

✅ Integrates with wind and solar for firm clean power

Inside the Transient Reactor Test Facility, a towering, windowless gray block surrounded by barbed wire, researchers are about to embark on a mission to solve one of humanity’s greatest problems with a tiny device.

Next year, they will begin construction on the MARVEL reactor. MARVEL stands for Microreactor Applications Research Validation and EvaLuation. It’s a first-of-a-kind nuclear power generator with a mini-reactor design that is cooled with liquid metal and produces 100 kilowatts of energy. By 2024, researchers expect MARVEL to be the zero-emissions engine of the world’s first nuclear microgrid at Idaho National Laboratory (INL).

“Micro” and “tiny,” of course, are relative. MARVEL stands 15 feet tall, weighs 2,000 pounds, and can fit in a semi-truck trailer. But it's minuscule compared to conventional nuclear power plants, which span acres, produces gigawatts of electricity to power whole states, and can take more than a decade to build.

For INL, where scientists have tested dozens of reactors over the decades across an area three-quarters the size of Rhode Island, it’s a radical reimagining of the technology. This advanced reactor design could help overcome the biggest obstacles to nuclear energy: safety, efficiency, scale, cost, and competition. MARVEL is an experiment to see how all these pieces could fit together in the real world.

“It’s an applications test reactor where we’re going to try to figure out how we extract heat and energy from a nuclear reactor and apply it — and combine it with wind, solar, and other energy sources,” said Yasir Arafat, head of the MARVEL program.

The project, however, comes at a time when nuclear power is getting pulled in wildly different directions, from phase-outs to new strategies like the UK’s green industrial revolution that shapes upcoming reactors.

Germany just shut down its last nuclear reactors. The U.S. just started up its first new reactor in 30 years, underscoring a shift. France, the country with the largest share of nuclear energy on its grid, saw its atomic power output decline to its lowest since 1988 last year. Around the world, there are currently 60 nuclear reactors under construction, with 22 in China alone.

But the world is hungrier than ever for energy. Overall electricity demand is growing: Global electricity needs will increase nearly 70 percent by 2050 compared to today’s consumption, according to the Energy Information Administration. At the same time, the constraints are getting tighter. Most countries worldwide, including the U.S., have committed to net-zero goals by the middle of the century, even as demand rises.

To meet this energy demand without worsening climate change, the U.S. Energy Department’s report on advanced nuclear energy released in March said, “the U.S. will need ~550–770 [gigawatts] of additional clean, firm capacity to reach net-zero; nuclear power is one of the few proven options that could deliver this at scale.”

The U.S. government is now renewing its bets on nuclear power to produce steady electricity without emitting greenhouse gases. The Bipartisan Infrastructure Law included $6 billion to keep existing nuclear power plants running. In addition, the Inflation Reduction Act, the U.S. government’s largest investment in countering climate change, includes several provisions to benefit atomic power, including tax credits for zero-emissions energy.

“It’s a game changer,” said John Wagner, director of INL.

The tech sector is jumping in, too, as atomic energy heats up across startups and investors. In 2021, venture capital firms poured $3.4 billion into nuclear energy startups. They’re also pouring money into even more far-out ideas, like nuclear fusion power. Public opinion has also started moving. An April Gallup poll found that 55 percent of Americans favour and 44 percent oppose using atomic energy, the highest levels of support in 10 years.

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Turkey Net Metering Suspension freezes regulator reviews, stalling rooftop solar permits and grid interconnections amid COVID-19, pausing licensing workflows, EPC pipelines, and electricity bill credits that drive commercial and household prosumer adoption.

Key Points

A pause on technical reviews freezing net metering applications and slowing rooftop solar deployment in Turkey.

✅ Monthly technical committee meetings suspended indefinitely

✅ Rooftop solar permits and grid interconnections on hold

✅ EPC firms urge remote evaluations for transparency

The decision by the Turkish Energy Market Regulatory Authority to halt part of the system of processing net metering applications risks bringing the only vibrant segment of the nation’s solar industry to a grinding halt, a risk amplified as global renewables face Covid-19 disruptions across markets.

The regulator has suspended monthly meetings of the committee which makes technical evaluations of net metering applications, citing concerns about the spread of Covid-19, which has already seen U.S. utility-scale solar face delays this year.

The availability of electricity bill credits for net-metering-approved households which inject surplus power into the grid, similar to how British households can sell power back to energy firms, has seen the rooftop projects the scheme is typically associated with remain the only source of new solar generation capacity in Turkey of late.

However the energy regulator’s decision to suspend technical evaluation committee meetings until further notice has seen the largely online licensing process for new solar systems practically cease; by contrast, Berlin is being urged to remove PV barriers to keep projects moving.

The Turkish solar industry has claimed the move is unnecessary, with solar engineering, procurement and construction services businesses pointing out the committee could meet to evaluate projects remotely. It has been argued such a move would streamline the application process and make it more transparent, regardless of the current public health crisis.

Net metering 

Turkey introduced net metering for rooftop installations last May and pv magazine has reported the specifics of the scheme, amid debates like New England's grid upgrade costs over who pays.

National grid operator Teias confirmed recently the country added 109 MW of new solar capacity in the first quarter, most of it net-metered rooftop systems, even as Australian distributors warn excess solar can strain local networks.

Net metering has been particularly attractive to commercial electricity users because the owners of small and medium-sized businesses pay more for power, as solar reshapes electricity prices in Northern Europe, than either households or large scale industrial consumers.

Until the recent technical committee decision by the regulator, the chief obstacle to net metering adoption had been the nation’s economic travails. The Turkish lira has lost 14% of its value since January and around 36% over the last two years. The central bank has been using its foreign reserves to support state lenders and the lira but the national currency slipped near an all-time low on Friday and foreign analysts predict the central bank reserves could run dry in July.

The level of exports shipped last month was down 41% on April last year and imports fell 28% by the same comparison, further depressing the willingness of companies to make capital investments such as rooftop solar.

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FERC Hydropower Licensing Dispute centers on FERC authority, Clean Water Act compliance, state water quality certifications, Federal Power Act timelines, and Army Corps dams on West Virginia's Monongahela River licenses.

Key Points

An inquiry into FERC's licensing process and state water quality authority for hydropower at Monongahela River dams.

✅ Questions on omitted state water quality conditions

✅ Debate over starting Clean Water Act certification timelines

✅ Potential impacts on states' rights and licensing schedules

As federal lawmakers, including Democrats pressing FERC, plan to consider a bill that would expand Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) licensing authority, questions emerged on Tuesday about the process used by FERC to issue two hydropower licenses for existing dams in West Virginia.

In a letter to FERC Chairman Neil Chatterjee, Democratic leaders of the House Energy and Commerce Committee, as electricity pricing changes were being debated, raised questions about hydropower licenses issued for two dams operated by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers on the Monongahela River in West Virginia.

U.S. Reps. Frank Pallone Jr. (D-NJ), the ranking member of the Subcommittee on Energy, Bobby Rush (D-IL), the ranking member of the Subcommittee on Environment, and John Sarbanes (D-MD), amid Maryland clean energy enforcement concerns, questioned why FERC did not incorporate all conditions outlined in a West Virginia Department of Environmental Protection water quality certificate into plans for the projects.

“By denying the state its allotted time to review this application and submit requirements on these licenses, FERC is undermining the state’s authority under the Clean Water Act and Federal Power Act to impose conditions that will ensure water quality standards are met,” the letter stated.

The House of Representatives was slated to consider the Hydropower Policy Modernization Act of 2017, H.R. 3043, later in the week. The measure would expand FERC authority over licensing processes, a theme mirrored in Maine's transmission line debate over interstate energy projects. Opponents of the bill argue that the changes would make it more difficult for states to protect their clean water interests.

West Virginia has announced plans to challenge FERC hydropower licenses for the dams on the Monongahela River, echoing Northern Pass opposition seen in New Hampshire.

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U.S. Transmission Grid Modernization underscores FERC policy certainty, high-voltage infrastructure upgrades, renewables integration, electrification, and grid resilience to cut congestion and enable distributed energy resources, safeguarding against extreme weather, cyber threats, and market volatility.

Key Points

A plan to expand, upgrade, and secure high-voltage networks for renewables integration, electrification, reliability.

✅ Replace aging lines to cut congestion and customer costs

✅ Integrate renewables and distributed energy resources at scale

✅ Enhance resilience to weather, cyber, and physical threats

Today, in a high-visibility hearing on U.S. energy delivery infrastructure before the United States Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources, WIRES Executive Director and Former FERC Chairman Jim Hoecker addressed the challenges and opportunities that confront the modern high-voltage grid as the industry strives to upgrade and expand it to meet the demands of consumers and the economy.

In prepared testimony and responses to Senators' questions, Hoecker urged the Committee to support industry efforts to expand and upgrade the transmission network and to help regulators, especially the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC action on aggregated DERs), promote certainty and predictability in energy policy and regulation. 

His testimony stressed these points:

Significant transmission investment is needed now to replace aging infrastructure like the aging grid risks to clean energy, reduce congestion costs, and deliver widespread benefits to customers.

Increasingly, the role of the transmission grid is to integrate new distributed resources and renewable energy into the electric system and make them available to the market.

The changing electric generation mix, including needed nuclear innovation, and the coming electrification of transportation, heating, and other segments of the American economy in the next quarter century will depend on a strong and adaptable electric system. A robust transmission grid will be the linchpin that will enable us to meet those demands.

"Transmission is the common element that will support all future electricity needs and provide a hedge against uncertainties and potential costly outcomes. The time is now to be proactive in encouraging additional investments in our nation's most crucial infrastructure: the electric transmission system," Hoecker said. 

Hoecker's testimony also emphasized that transmission investment will contribute to the overall resilience of the electric system by bringing multiple resources and technologies to bear on threats to the power system, including extreme weather and proposals like a wildfire-resilient grid bill, cyber or physical attacks, or other events. Visit WIRES website for recently filed comments on the subject (supported by a Brattle Group study). 

"Transmission gives us the optionality to adapt to whatever the future holds, and a modern and resilient transmission system, informed by Texas reliability improvements, will be the most valuable energy asset we have," says Nina Plaushin, president of WIRES and vice president of federal affairs, regulatory and communications for ITC Holdings Corp. 

Hoecker closed his testimony by emphasizing that the "electrification" scenario that is being discussed across multiple industries demands action now in order to ensure policy and regulatory certainty that will support needed transmission investment. More studies need to be conducted to better understand and define how this delivery network must be configured and planned in anticipation of this potential transformation in how we use electrical energy. A full copy of the WIRES testimony can be found here.

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