Same wires, more power

By Forbes


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Five summers and two sweeping national energy laws ago, a few overgrown trees tripped power lines in Ohio, cascading into a blackout for much of the northeastern U.S. and Canada. Yet the nation's electric grid is still in drastic need of an overhaul.

The problems abound: increasing demand for electricity consistently strains the aging network. When planning system upgrades, power companies find themselves burdened by regulatory details and local opposition. Deregulation of the utility industry in the past two decades has fractured investment in transmission lines.

There's help on the way. Start-ups, big utilities and government have unleashed a wave of investment to make the electric grid smarter and more efficient, in spite of (and perhaps because of) underinvestment in transmission. The reason? Potentially enormous profits associated with getting more out of the network that's already in place.

"More generators just congest the system," says Roland Schoettle, founder and chief executive of Optimal Technologies International, a Raleigh, N.C.-based company that is scrambling to get in on the energy efficiency game.

In May the company commercially unveiled technology to measure the performance throughout the power grid, making congestion points more transparent. Optimal says its product could eradicate blackouts. That remains to be seen, though the company received $25 million in funding from Goldman Sachs, and California's grid operator has already successfully tested the system.

Of course, the "grid" is not actually a single web of infrastructure spanning the country, and efficiency gains are localized, often at the utility level. The grid itself is a network of about 10,000 power plants and power lines that runs within three different interconnections - in the West, the East and in Texas. Distribution of electricity is the responsibility of local utilities.

The big coup for start-ups, obviously, lies in turning utilities into customers. A good example: Virginia-based GridPoint, which recently announced partnerships with Duke Energy and Xcel Energy. Duke and GridPoint in March tested a technology that allows utilities to reduce stress on the grid caused by plug-in hybrid electric vehicles. Two months later, the start-up said Xcel will use GridPoint technology as it builds the nation's first "SmartGridCity" in Boulder, Colo.

In fact, the SmartGridCity is a massive energy efficiency project unto itself and a good example of how major utilities are getting in on the action. Think of it as a "Tomorrowland" for electricity, a prototype community that allows customers to determine when and how they'll use energy. Scheduled to be completed in 2009, it will include advanced meters, a network upgrade and the ability for local power sources to link up to the grid.

Known as "distributed generation," this localized power production is a key factor - and possibly the Achilles' heel - in the evolution of the smart grid. The idea behind distributed generation is to produce electricity near homes and businesses (usually from natural gas, small wind turbines or solar energy systems), thus alleviating the strain on power lines. In some cases, distributed power connections can sell energy back into the grid.

One quickly growing component of the distributed generation world is solar energy. Although it now provides less than 0.1% of the electricity generated in the U.S., solar power could account for 10% of the nation's power needs by 2025, according to a new study by the research firm Clean Edge. Already, companies such as Google and eBay are installing solar panels on their offices to reduce their reliance on the grid for power.

But here's the rub: Not all distributed generation is created equally. Local power sources frequently don't have the same voltage standards as electricity that comes from a centralized source, such as a coal-fired power plant. If a distributed generator goes out of service, it could prove a weak spot in the grid if it has no backup. The group that monitors grid reliability for federal regulators, the North American Electric Reliability Corp., doesn't have jurisdiction over local power lines. That's up to the utilities.

"If distributed generation is not integrated properly, it could have negative impacts," says Steve Hauser, president of the GridWise Alliance, a group pushing for a smarter grid, and a vice president at GridPoint.

So far, there hasn't been a major problem. And it looks as if Uncle Sam is keen to help the smart grid develop so catastrophe doesn't occur. The energy law passed by Congress last December calls for the U.S. Department of Energy to create a program to help cover the cost of smart-grid investments. It also requires the agency to report to lawmakers annually on the grid's evolution.

But some of the most meaningful action will probably come at the local level. Earlier this year, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission announced that it's starting a "collaborative dialogue" with state regulators to begin the transition to a smarter grid.

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Turning thermal energy into electricity

Near-Field Thermophotovoltaics captures radiated energy across a nanoscale gap, using thin-film photovoltaic cells and indium gallium arsenide to boost power density and efficiency, enabling compact Army portable power from emitters via radiative heat transfer.

 

Key Points

A nanoscale TPV method capturing near-field photons for higher power density at lower emitter temperatures.

✅ Nanoscale gap boosts radiative transfer and usable photon flux

✅ Thin-film InGaAs cells recycle sub-band-gap photons via reflector

✅ Achieved ~5 kW/m2 power density with higher efficiency

 

With the addition of sensors and enhanced communication tools, providing lightweight, portable power has become even more challenging, with concepts such as power from falling snow illustrating how diverse new energy-harvesting approaches are. Army-funded research demonstrated a new approach to turning thermal energy into electricity that could provide compact and efficient power for Soldiers on future battlefields.

Hot objects radiate light in the form of photons into their surroundings. The emitted photons can be captured by a photovoltaic cell and converted to useful electric energy. This approach to energy conversion is called far-field thermophotovoltaics, or FF-TPVs, and has been under development for many years; however, it suffers from low power density and therefore requires high operating temperatures of the emitter.

The research, conducted at the University of Michigan and published in Nature Communications, demonstrates a new approach, where the separation between the emitter and the photovoltaic cell is reduced to the nanoscale, enabling much greater power output than what is possible with FF-TPVs for the same emitter temperature.

This approach, which enables capture of energy that is otherwise trapped in the near-field of the emitter is called near-field thermophotovoltaics or NF-TPV and uses custom-built photovoltaic cells and emitter designs ideal for near-field operating conditions, alongside emerging smart solar inverters that help manage conversion and delivery.

This technique exhibited a power density almost an order of magnitude higher than that for the best-reported near-field-TPV systems, while also operating at six-times higher efficiency, paving the way for future near-field-TPV applications, including remote microgrid deployments in extreme environments, according to Dr. Edgar Meyhofer, professor of mechanical engineering, University of Michigan.

"The Army uses large amounts of power during deployments and battlefield operations and must be carried by the Soldier or a weight constrained system," said Dr. Mike Waits, U.S. Army Combat Capabilities Development Command's Army Research Laboratory. "If successful, in the future near-field-TPVs could serve as more compact and higher efficiency power sources for Soldiers as these devices can function at lower operating temperatures than conventional TPVs."

The efficiency of a TPV device is characterized by how much of the total energy transfer between the emitter and the photovoltaic cell is used to excite the electron-hole pairs in the photovoltaic cell, where insights from near-light-speed conduction research help contextualize performance limits in semiconductors. While increasing the temperature of the emitter increases the number of photons above the band-gap of the cell, the number of sub band-gap photons that can heat up the photovoltaic cell need to be minimized.

"This was achieved by fabricating thin-film TPV cells with ultra-flat surfaces, and with a metal back reflector," said Dr. Stephen Forrest, professor of electrical and computer engineering, University of Michigan. "The photons above the band-gap of the cell are efficiently absorbed in the micron-thick semiconductor, while those below the band-gap are reflected back to the silicon emitter and recycled."

The team grew thin-film indium gallium arsenide photovoltaic cells on thick semiconductor substrates, and then peeled off the very thin semiconductor active region of the cell and transferred it to a silicon substrate, informing potential interfaces with home battery systems for distributed use.

All these innovations in device design and experimental approach resulted in a novel near-field TPV system that could complement distributed resources in virtual power plants for resilient operations.

"The team has achieved a record ~5 kW/m2 power output, which is an order of magnitude larger than systems previously reported in the literature," said Dr. Pramod Reddy, professor of mechanical engineering, University of Michigan.

Researchers also performed state-of-the-art theoretical calculations to estimate the performance of the photovoltaic cell at each temperature and gap size, informing hybrid designs with backup fuel cell solutions that extend battery life, and showed good agreement between the experiments and computational predictions.

"This current demonstration meets theoretical predictions of radiative heat transfer at the nanoscale, and directly shows the potential for developing future near-field TPV devices for Army applications in power and energy, communication and sensors," said Dr. Pani Varanasi, program manager, DEVCOM ARL that funded this work.

 

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Minnesota 2050 carbon-free electricity plan gets first hearing

Minnesota Carbon-Free Power by 2050 aims to shift utilities to renewable energy, wind and solar, boosting efficiency while managing grid reliability, emissions, and costs under a clean energy mandate and statewide climate policy.

 

Key Points

A statewide goal to deliver 100% carbon-free power by 2050, prioritizing renewables, efficiency, and grid reliability.

✅ Targets 100% carbon-free electricity statewide by 2050

✅ Prioritizes wind, solar, and efficiency before fossil fuels

✅ Faces utility cost, reliability, and legislative challenges

 

Gov. Tim Walz's plan for Minnesota to get 100 percent of its electricity from carbon-free sources by 2050, similar to California's 100% carbon-free mandate in scope, was criticized Tuesday at its first legislative hearing, with representatives from some of the state's smaller utilities saying they can't meet that goal.

Commerce Commissioner Steve Kelley told the House climate committee that the Democratic governor's plan is ambitious. But he said the state's generating system is "aging and at a critical juncture," with plants that produce 70 percent of the state's electricity coming up for potential retirement over the next two decades. He said it will ensure that utilities replace them with wind, solar and other innovative sources, and increased energy efficiency, before turning to fossil fuels.

"Utilities will simply need to demonstrate why clean energy would not work whenever they propose to replace or add new generating capacity," he said.

Walz's plan, announced last week, seeks to build on the success of a 2007 law that required Minnesota utilities to get at least 25 percent of their electricity from renewable sources by 2025. The state largely achieved that goal in 2017 thanks to the growth of wind and solar power, and the topic of climate change has only grown hotter, with some proposals like a fully renewable grid by 2030 pushing even faster timelines, hence the new goal for 2050.

But Joel Johnson, a lobbyist for the Minnkota Power Cooperative, testified that the governor's plan is "misguided and unrealistic" even with new technology to capture carbon dioxide emissions from power plants. Johnson added that even the big utilities that have set goals of going carbon-free by mid-century, such as Minneapolis-based Xcel Energy, acknowledge they don't know yet how they'll hit the net-zero electricity by mid-century target they have set.

 

Minnkota serves northwestern Minnesota and eastern North Dakota.

Tim Sullivan, president and CEO of the Wright-Hennepin Cooperative Electric Association in the Twin Cities area, said the plan is a "bad idea" for the 1.7 million state electric consumers served by cooperatives. He said Minnesota is a "minuscule contributor" to total global carbon emissions, even as the EU plans to double electricity use by 2050 to meet electrification demands.

"The bill would have a devastating impact on electric consumers," Sullivan said. "It represents, in our view, nothing short of a first-order threat to the safety and reliability of Minnesota's grid."

Isaac Orr is a policy fellow at the Minnesota-based conservative think tank, the Center for the American Experiment, which released a report critical of the plan Tuesday. Orr said all Minnesota households would face higher energy costs and it would harm energy-intensive industries such as mining, manufacturing and health care, while doing little to reduce global warming.

"This does not pass a proper cost-benefit analysis," he testified.

Environmental groups, including Conservation Minnesota and the Sierra Club, supported the proposal while acknowledging the challenges, noting that cleaning up electricity is critical to climate pledges in many jurisdictions.

"Our governor has called climate change an existential crisis," said Kevin Lee, director of the climate and energy program at the Minnesota Center for Environmental Advocacy. "This problem is the defining challenge of our time, and it can feel overwhelming."

Rep. Jean Wagenius, the committee chairwoman and Minneapolis Democrat who's held several hearings on the threats that climate change poses, said she expected to table the bill for further consideration after taking more testimony in the evening and would not hold a vote Tuesday.

While the bill has support in the Democratic-controlled House, it's not scheduled for action in the Republican-led Senate. Rep. Pat Garofalo, a Farmington Republican, quipped that it "has a worse chance of becoming law than me being named the starting quarterback for the Minnesota Vikings."

 

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This kite could harness more of the world's wind energy

Autonomous Energy Kites harness offshore wind on floating platforms, using carbon fiber wings, tethers, and rotors to generate grid electricity; an airborne wind energy solution backed by Alphabet's Makani to cut turbine costs.

 

Key Points

Autonomous Energy Kites are tethered craft that capture winds with rotors, generating grid power from floating platforms.

✅ Flies circles on tethers; rotors drive generators to feed the grid.

✅ Operates over deep-sea winds where fixed turbines are impractical.

✅ Lighter, less visual impact, and lower installation costs offshore.

 

One company's self-flying energy kite may be the answer to increasing wind power around the world, alongside emerging wave power solutions as well.

California-based Makani -- which is owned by Google's parent company, Alphabet -- is using power from the strongest winds found out in the middle of the ocean, where the offshore wind sector has huge potential, typically in spots where it's a challenge to install traditional wind turbines. Makani hopes to create electricity to power communities across the world.

Despite a growing number of wind farms in the United States and the potential of this energy source, lessons from the U.K. underscore how to scale, yet only 6% of the world's electricity comes from wind due to the the difficulty of setting up and maintaining turbines, according to the World Wind Energy Association.

When the company's co-founders, who were fond of kiteboarding, realized deep-sea winds were largely untapped, they sought to make that energy more accessible. So they built an autonomous kite, which looks like an airplane tethered to a base, to install on a floating platform in water, as part of broader efforts to harness oceans and rivers for power across regions. Tests are currently underway off the coast of Norway.

"There are many areas around the world that really don't have a good resource for renewable power but do have offshore wind resources," Makani CEO Fort Felker told Rachel Crane, CNN's innovation correspondent. "Our lightweight kites create the possibility that we could tap that resource very economically and bring renewable power to hundreds of millions of people."

This technology is more cost-efficient than a traditional wind turbine, which is a lot more labor intensive and would require lots of machinery and installation.

The lightweight kite, which is made of carbon fiber, has an 85-foot wingspan. The kite launches from a base station and is constrained by a 1,400-foot tether as it flies autonomously in circles with guidance from computers. Crosswinds spin the kite's eight rotors to move a generator that produces electricity that's sent back to the grid through the tether.

The kites are still in the prototype phase and aren't flown constantly right now as researchers continue to develop the technology. But Makani hopes the kites will one day fly 24/7 all year round. When the wind is down, the kite will return to the platform and automatically pick back up when it resumes.

Chief engineer Dr. Paula Echeverri said the computer system is key for understanding the state of the kite in real time, from collecting data about how fast it's moving to charting its trajectory.

Echeverri said tests have been helpful in establishing what some of the challenges of the system are, and the team has made adjustments to get it ready for commercial use. Earlier this year, the team successfully completed a first round of autonomous flights.

Working in deeper water provides an additional benefit over traditional wind turbines, according to Felker. By being farther offshore, the technology is less visible from land, and the growth of offshore wind in the U.K. shows how coastal communities can adapt. Wind turbines can be obtrusive and impact natural life in the surrounding area. These kites may be more attractive to areas that wish to preserve their scenic coastlines and views.

It's also desirable for regions that face constraints related to installing conventional turbines -- such as island nations, where World Bank support is helping developing countries accelerate wind adoption, which have extremely high prices for electricity because they have to import expensive fossil fuels that they then burn to generate electricity.

Makani isn't alone in trying to bring novelty to wind energy. Several others companies such as Altaeros Energies and Vortex Bladeless are experimenting with kites of their own or other types of wind-capture methods, such as underwater kites that generate electricity, a huge oscillating pole that generates energy and a blimp tethered to the ground that gathers winds at higher altitudes.

 

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Ottawa hands N.L. $5.2 billion for troubled Muskrat Falls hydro project

Muskrat Falls funding deal delivers federal relief to Newfoundland and Labrador: Justin Trudeau outlines loan guarantees, transmission investment, Hibernia royalties, and $10-a-day child care to stabilize hydroelectric costs and curb electricity rate hikes.

 

Key Points

A $5.2b federal plan aiding NL hydro via loan guarantees, transmission funds, and Hibernia royalties to curb power rates.

✅ $1b for transmission and $1b in federal loan guarantees

✅ $3.2b via Hibernia royalty transfers through 2047

✅ Limits power rate hikes; adds $10-a-day child care in NL

 

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau was in Newfoundland and Labrador Wednesday to announce a $5.2-billion ratepayer protection plan to help the province cover the costs of a troubled hydroelectric project ahead of an expected federal election call.

Trudeau's visit to St. John's, N.L., wrapped up a two-day tour of Atlantic Canada that featured several major funding commitments, and he concluded his day in Newfoundland and Labrador by announcing the province will become the fourth to strike a deal with Ottawa for a $10-a-day child-care program.

As he addressed reporters, the prime minister was flanked by the six Liberal members of Parliament from the province. He alluded to the mismanagement that led the over-budget Muskrat Falls hydroelectric project to become what Liberal Premier Andrew Furey has called an "anchor around the collective souls" of the province.

"The pressures and challenges faced by Newfoundlanders and Labradorians for mistakes made in the past is something that Canadians all needed to step up on, and that's exactly what we did," Trudeau said.

Furey, who joined Trudeau for the two announcements and was effusive in his praise for the federal government, said the federal funding will help Newfoundland and Labrador avoid a spike in electricity rates as customers start paying for Muskrat Falls ahead of when the project begins generating power this November.

"Muskrat Falls has been the No. 1 issue facing Newfoundlanders and Labradorians now for well over a decade," Furey said, adding that he is regularly asked by people whether their electricity rates are going to double, a concern other provinces address through rate legislation in Ontario as well.

"We landed on a deal today that I think -- I know -- is a big deal for Newfoundland and Labrador and will finally get the muskrat off our back," he said.

The agreement-in-principle between the two governments includes a $1-billion investment from Ottawa in a transmission through Quebec portion of the project, as well as $1 billion in loan guarantees. The rest will come from annual transfers from Ottawa equivalent to its annual royalty gains from its share in the Hibernia offshore oilfield, which sits off the coast of St. John's. Those transfers are expected to add up to about $3.2 billion between now and 2047, when the oilfield is expected to run dry.

The money will help cover costs set to come due when the Labrador project comes online, preventing rate increases that would have been needed to pay the bills, and officials have discussed a lump-sum bill credit to help households. Though electricity rates in the province will still rise, to 14.7 cents per kilowatt hour from the current 12.5 cents, that's well below the projected 23 cents that officials had said would be needed to cover the project's costs.

Muskrat Falls was commissioned in 2012 at a cost of $7.4 billion, but its price tag has since ballooned to $13.1 billion. Ottawa previously backed the project with billions of dollars in loan guarantees, and in December, Trudeau announced he had appointed Serge Dupont, former deputy clerk of the Privy Council, to oversee rate mitigation talks with the province about financially restructuring the project.

Its looming impact on the provincial budget is set against an already grim financial situation: the province projected an $826-million deficit in its latest budget, and a recent financial update from the provincial energy corporation reflected pandemic impacts, coupled with $17.2 billion in net debt.

After visiting with children from a daycare centre in the College of the North Atlantic, Trudeau and Furey announced that in 2023, the average cost of regulated child care in the province for children under six would be cut to $10 a day from $25 a day. Trudeau said that within five years, almost 6,000 new daycare spaces would be created in the province.

"As part of the agreement, a new full-day, year-round pre-kindergarten program for four-year-olds will also start rolling out in 2023," the prime minister told reporters. "For parents, this agreement is huge."

Newfoundland and Labrador is the fourth province, after Prince Edward Island, Nova Scotia and British Columbia, to sign on to the federal government's child-care program.

 

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Data Center Boom Poses a Power Challenge for U.S. Utilities

U.S. Data Center Power Demand is straining electric utilities and grid reliability as AI, cloud computing, and streaming surge, driving transmission and generation upgrades, demand response, and renewable energy sourcing amid rising electricity costs.

 

Key Points

The rising electricity load from U.S. data centers, affecting utilities, grid capacity, and energy prices.

✅ AI, cloud, and streaming spur hyperscale compute loads

✅ Grid upgrades: transmission, generation, and substations

✅ Demand response, efficiency, and renewables mitigate strain

 

U.S. electric utilities are facing a significant new challenge as the explosive growth of data centers puts unprecedented strain on power grids across the nation. According to a new report from Reuters, data centers' power demands are expected to increase dramatically over the next few years, raising concerns about grid reliability and potential increases in electricity costs for businesses and consumers.


What's Driving the Data Center Surge?

The explosion in data centers is being fueled by several factors, with grid edge trends offering early context for these shifts:

  • Cloud Computing: The rise of cloud computing services, where businesses and individuals store and process data on remote servers, significantly increases demand for data centers.
  • Artificial Intelligence (AI): Data-hungry AI applications and machine learning algorithms are driving a massive need for computing power, accelerating the growth of data centers.
  • Streaming and Video Content: The growth of streaming platforms and high-definition video content requires vast amounts of data storage and processing, further boosting demand for data centers.


Challenges for Utilities

Data centers are notorious energy hogs. Their need for a constant, reliable supply of electricity places  heavy demand on the grid, making integrating AI data centers a complex planning challenge, often in regions where power infrastructure wasn't designed for such large loads. Utilities must invest significantly in transmission and generation capacity upgrades to meet the demand while ensuring grid stability.

Some experts warn that the growth of data centers could lead to brownouts or outages, as a U.S. blackout study underscores ongoing risks, especially during peak demand periods in areas where the grid is already strained. Increased electricity demand could also lead to price hikes, with utilities potentially passing the additional costs onto consumers and businesses.


Sustainable Solutions Needed

Utility companies, governments, and the data center industry are scrambling to find sustainable solutions, including using AI to manage demand initiatives across utilities, to mitigate these challenges:

  • Energy Efficiency: Data center operators are investing in new cooling and energy management solutions to improve energy efficiency. Some are even exploring renewable energy sources like onsite solar and wind power.
  • Strategic Placement: Authorities are encouraging the development of data centers in areas with abundant renewable energy and access to existing grid infrastructure. This minimizes the need for expensive new transmission lines.
  • Demand Flexibility: Utility companies are experimenting with programs as part of a move toward a digital grid architecture to incentivize data centers to reduce their power consumption during peak demand periods, which could help mitigate power strain.


The Future of the Grid

The rapid growth of data centers exemplifies the significant challenges facing the aging U.S. electrical grid, with a recent grid report card highlighting dangerous vulnerabilities. It highlights the need for a modernized power infrastructure, capable of accommodating increasing demand spurred by new technologies while addressing climate change impacts that threaten reliability and affordability.  The question for utilities, as well as data center operators, is how to balance the increasing need for computing power with the imperative of a sustainable and reliable energy future.

 

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Europe's Worst Energy Nightmare Is Becoming Reality

European Energy Crisis shocks markets as Russia slashes gas via Nord Stream, spiking prices and triggering rationing, LNG imports, storage shortfalls, and emergency measures to secure energy security before a harsh winter.

 

Key Points

Europe-wide gas shock from reduced Russian flows drives price spikes, rationing risk, LNG reliance, and emergency action.

✅ Nord Stream cuts deepen supply insecurity and storage gaps

✅ LNG imports rise but terminal capacity and shipping are tight

✅ Policy tools: rationing, subsidies, demand response, coal restarts

 

As Russian gas cutoffs upend European energy security, the continent is struggling to cope with what experts say is one of its worst-ever energy crises—and it could still get much worse. 

For months, European leaders have been haunted by the prospect of losing Russia’s natural gas supply, which accounts for some 40 percent of European imports and has been a crucial energy lifeline for the continent. That nightmare is now becoming a painful reality as Moscow slashes its flows in retaliation for Europe’s support for Ukraine, dramatically increasing energy prices and forcing many countries to resort to emergency plans, including emergency measures to limit electricity prices in some cases, and as backup energy suppliers such as Norway and North Africa are failing to step up.

“This is the most extreme energy crisis that has ever occurred in Europe,” said Alex Munton, an expert on global gas markets at Rapidan Energy Group, a consultancy. “Europe [is] looking at the very real prospect of not having sufficient gas when it’s most needed, which is during the coldest part of the year.”

“Prices have shot through the roof,” added Munton, who noted that European natural gas prices—nearly $50 per MMBTu—have eclipsed U.S. price rises by nearly tenfold, and that rolling back electricity prices is tougher than it appears in the current market. “That is an extraordinarily high price to be paying for natural gas, and really there is no immediate way out from here.” 

Many officials and energy experts worry that the crisis will only deepen after Nord Stream 1, the largest gas pipeline from Russia to Europe, is taken down for scheduled maintenance this week. Although the pipeline is supposed to be under repair for only 10 days, the Kremlin’s history of energy blackmail and weaponization has stoked fears that Moscow won’t turn it back on—leaving heavily reliant European countries in the lurch. (Russia’s second pipeline to Germany, Nord Stream 2, was killed in February as Russian President Vladimir Putin prepared to invade Ukraine, leaving Nord Stream 1 as the biggest direct gas link between Russia and Europe’s biggest economy.)

“Everything is possible. Everything can happen,” German economy minister Robert Habeck told Deutschlandfunk on Saturday. “It could be that the gas flows again, maybe more than before. It can also be the case that nothing comes.”

That would spell trouble for the upcoming winter, when demand for energy surges and having sufficient natural gas is necessary for heating. European countries typically rely on the summer months to refill their gas storage facilities. And at a time of war, when the continent’s future gas supply is uncertain, having that energy cushion is especially crucial.

If Russia’s prolonged disruptions continue, experts warn of a difficult winter: one of potential rationing, industrial shutdowns, and even massive economic dislocation. British officials, who just a few months ago warned of soaring power bills for consumers, are now warning of even worse, despite a brief fall to pre-Ukraine war levels in gas prices earlier in the year.

Europe could face a “winter of discontent,” said Helima Croft, a managing director at RBC Capital Markets. “Rationing, industrial shut-ins—all of that is looming.”

Unrest has already been brewing, with strikes erupting across the continent as households struggle under the pressures of spiraling costs of living and inflationary pressures. Some of this discontent has also had knock-on effects in the energy market. In Norway, the European Union’s biggest supplier of natural gas after Russia, mass strikes in the oil and gas industries last week forced companies to shutter production, sending further shockwaves throughout Europe.

European countries are at risk of descending into “very, very strong conflict and strife because there is no energy,” Frans Timmermans, the vice president of the European Commission, told the Guardian. “Putin is using all the means he has to create strife in our societies, so we have to brace ourselves for a very difficult period.”

The pain of the crisis, however, is perhaps being felt most clearly in Germany, which has been forced to turn to a number of energy-saving measures, including rationing heated water and closing swimming pools. To cope with the crunch, Berlin has already entered the second phase of its three-stage emergency gas plan; last week, it also moved to bail out its energy giants amid German utility troubles that have been financially slammed by Russian cutoffs. 

But it’s not just Germany. “This is happening all across Europe,” said Olga Khakova, an expert on European energy security at the Atlantic Council, who noted that France has also announced plans to nationalize the EDF power company as it buckles under mounting economic losses, and the EU outlines gas price cap strategies to temper volatility. “The challenging part is how much can these governments provide in support to their energy consumers, to these companies? And what is that breaking point?”

The situation has also complicated many countries’ climate goals, even as some call it a wake-up call to ditch fossil fuels for Europe. In late June, Germany, Italy, Austria, and the Netherlands announced they would restart old coal power plants as they grapple with shrinking supplies. 

The potential outcomes that European nations are grappling with reveal how this crisis is occurring on a scale that has only been seen in times of war, Munton said. In the worst-case scenario, “we’re talking about rationing gas supplies, and this is not something that Europe has had to contend with in any other time than the wartime,” he said. “That’s essentially where things have got to now. This is an energy war.”

They also underscore the long and painful battle that Europe will continue to face in weaning itself off Russian gas. Despite the continent’s eagerness to leave Moscow’s supply behind, experts say Europe will likely remain trapped in this spiraling crisis until it can develop the infrastructure for greater energy independence—and that could take years. U.S. gas, shipped by tanker, is one option, but that requires new terminals to receive the gas and U.S. energy impacts remain a factor for policymakers. New pipelines take even longer to build—and there isn’t a surfeit of eligible suppliers.

Until then, European leaders will continue to scramble to secure enough supplies—and can only hope for mild weather. The “worst-case scenario is people having to choose between eating and heating come winter,” Croft said. 

 

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