Joni Ernst calls Trump's wind turbine cancer claim 'ridiculous'


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Wind Turbine Cancer Claim debunked: Iowa Republican senators back wind energy as fact-checks and DOE research find no link between turbine noise and cancer, limited effects on property values, and manageable wildlife impacts.

 

Key Points

Claims that turbine noise causes cancer, dismissed by studies and officials as unsupported by evidence.

✅ Grassley and Ernst call the claim idiotic and ridiculous

✅ DOE studies find no cancer link; property impacts limited

✅ Wildlife impacts mitigated; climate change poses larger risks

 

President Donald Trump may not be a fan of wind turbines, as shown by his pledge to scrap offshore wind projects earlier, suggesting that the noise they produce may cause cancer, but Iowa's Republican senators are big fans of wind energy.

Sen. Chuck Grassley called Trump's cancer claim "idiotic." On Thursday, Sen. Joni Ernst called the statement "ridiculous."

"I would say it's ridiculous. It's ridiculous," Ernst said, according to WHO-TV.

She likened the claim that wind turbine noise causes cancer to the idea that church bells do the same.

"I have church bells that ring all the time across from my office here in D.C. and I know that noise doesn't give me cancer, otherwise I'd have 'church bell cancer,'" Ernst said, adding that she is "thrilled" to have wind energy generation in Iowa, which aligns with a quarter-million wind jobs forecast nationwide. "I don't know what the president is drawing from."

Trump has a history of degrading wind energy and wind turbines that dates back long before his Tuesday claim that turbines harm property values and cause cancer, and often overlooks Texas grid constraints that can force turbines offline at times.

Not only are wind farms disgusting looking, but even worse they are bad for people's health.

"Not only are wind farms disgusting looking, but even worse, they are bad for people's health," Trump tweeted back in 2012.

Repeated fact-checks have found no scientific evidence to support the claim that wind turbines and the noise they make can cause cancer. The White House has reportedly provided no evidence to support Trump's cancer claim when asked this week

"It just seems like every time you turn around there's another thing the president is saying -- wind power causes cancer, I associate myself with the remarks of Chairman Grassley -- it's an 'idiotic' statement," Pelosi said in her weekly news conference on Thursday.

The president made his latest claim about wind turbines in a speech on Tuesday at a Republican spring dinner, as the industry continued recovering from the COVID-19 crisis that hit solar and wind energy.

"If you have a windmill anywhere near your house, congratulations, your house just went down 75 percent in value -- and they say the noise causes cancer," Trump said Tuesday, swinging his arm in a circle and making a cranking sound to imitate the noise of windmill blades. "And of course it's like a graveyard for birds. If you love birds, you never want to walk under a windmill. It’s a sad, sad sight."

Wind turbines are not, in fact, proven to have widespread negative impacts on property values, according to the Department of Energy's Office of Scientific and Technical Information in the largest study done so far in the U.S., even as some warn that a solar ITC extension could be devastating for the wind market, and there is no peer-reviewed data to back up the claim that the noise causes cancer.

I am considered a world-class expert in tourism. When you say, 'Where is the expert and where is the evidence?' I say: I am the evidence.

It's true wildlife is affected by wind turbines -- particularly birds and bats, with research showing whooping cranes avoid turbines when selecting stopover sites. One study estimated between 140,000 and 328,000 birds are killed annually by collisions with turbines across the U.S. The U.S. Energy Information Administration estimated, however, that other human-related impacts also contribute to declines in population.

The wind industry works with biologists to find solutions to the impact of turbines on wildlife, and the Department of Energy awards grants each year to researchers addressing the issue, even as the sector faced pandemic investment risks in 2020. But, overall, scientists warn that climate change itself is a bigger threat to bird populations than wind turbines, according to the National Audobon Society.

Speaker Nancy Pelosi: "It just seems like every time you turn around, there's another thing. The president is saying wind power causes cancer. I associate myself with the remarks of Chairman Grassley; It's an 'idiotic' statement"

 

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Mike Sangster to Headline Invest in African Energy Forum

TotalEnergies Africa Energy Strategy 2025 spotlights oil, gas, LNG, and renewables, with investments in Namibia, Congo, Mozambique, Uganda, Morocco, and South Africa, driving upstream growth, clean energy, and energy transition partnerships.

 

Key Points

An investment roadmap uniting oil, gas, LNG, and renewables to speed Africa's upstream growth and energy transition.

✅ Keynote by Mike Sangster at IAE Paris 2025.

✅ Oil, gas, LNG projects across Namibia, Congo, Mozambique, Uganda.

✅ Scaling renewables: solar, wind, green ammonia for export.

 

Mike Sangster, Senior Vice President for Africa at TotalEnergies, will play a pivotal role in the upcoming Invest in African Energy (IAE) Forum, which will take place in Paris on May 13-14, 2025. As a key figure in one of the world’s largest energy companies, Sangster's participation in the forum is expected to offer crucial insights into Africa’s evolving energy landscape, particularly in the areas of oil, gas, and renewable energy.

TotalEnergies' Role in Africa's Energy Landscape

TotalEnergies has long been a major player in Africa’s energy sector, driving development across both emerging and established markets. The company has a significant footprint in countries such as Namibia, the Republic of Congo, Libya, Mozambique, Uganda, and South Africa. TotalEnergies’ investments span both traditional oil and gas projects as well as renewable energy initiatives, reflecting its commitment to a more diversified energy future for Africa.

In Namibia, for instance, TotalEnergies is advancing its Venus-1 discovery, with plans to produce its first oil by the end of the decade. The company is also heavily involved in the Orange Basin exploration. Meanwhile, in the Republic of Congo, TotalEnergies is investing $600 million to enhance deepwater production at its Moho Nord field.

Beyond oil and gas, the company is expanding its renewable energy portfolio across the continent. This includes significant solar, wind, and hydropower projects, such as the 500 MW Sadada solar project in Libya, a 216 MW solar plant with battery storage in South Africa, and a 1 GW wind and solar project in Morocco designed to produce green ammonia for export.

The Invest in African Energy Forum

The IAE Forum, which TotalEnergies’ Sangster will headline, is an exclusive event aimed at facilitating investment between African energy markets and global investors, including discussions on COVID-19 funding for electricity access mechanisms that emerged, and their relevance to current capital flows. With a focus on fostering partnerships and discussions about the future of energy in Africa, the event will bring together industry experts, project developers, investors, and policymakers for two days of intensive engagement.

The forum will also serve as a crucial platform for sharing perspectives on the role of private investment, as outlined in the IEA investment outlook for Africa's power systems, in Africa’s energy future, strategies for unlocking new upstream opportunities, and the transition to a more sustainable energy system. This makes Sangster's participation, as someone directly involved in both conventional and renewable energy projects across the continent, particularly significant.

TotalEnergies' Diversified Strategy in Africa

Sangster’s keynote address and participation in an exclusive fireside chat will provide an in-depth look into TotalEnergies’ strategy for Africa. His insights will touch upon the company's ongoing projects in the oil and gas sectors, as well as its renewable energy investments. TotalEnergies has committed to making its portfolio more sustainable, underscored by its recent VSB acquisition to expand renewables capabilities, while continuing to be a leader in the energy transition.

One of the company’s notable projects is the Mozambique LNG initiative, a $20 billion venture aimed at supplying liquefied natural gas to international markets. Additionally, TotalEnergies is gearing up for the first oil from its Tilenga field in Uganda, which will be transported through the East African Crude Oil Pipeline (EACOP), the longest heated crude oil pipeline in the world.

In South Africa, TotalEnergies is constructing one of the largest renewable energy projects, a 216 MW solar power plant with integrated battery storage. This project is expected to significantly contribute to the country’s clean energy ambitions. Furthermore, in Morocco, TotalEnergies is developing a major wind and solar facility that will produce green ammonia, aligning with its broader strategy to provide solutions for Europe’s energy needs.

Africa’s Energy Transition

The forum’s timing could not be more critical, given the pressing need for an energy transition in Africa. While the continent remains heavily reliant on fossil fuels for its energy needs, there is growing momentum toward incorporating renewable energy sources, a point reinforced by the IRENA renewables report on decarbonisation and quality of life, which highlights the transformative potential. Africa’s vast natural resources, combined with global investments and partnerships, position the continent as a key player in the global shift toward sustainable energy.

However, Africa faces unique challenges in transitioning to renewable energy, reflecting a broader Sub-Saharan electricity challenge that also presents opportunity, across many markets. These challenges include a lack of infrastructure, financial constraints, and the need for increased political stability in certain regions. The IAE Forum provides an opportunity to address these barriers, with industry leaders like Sangster offering solutions based on real-world experiences and investments.

As the energy sector continues to evolve globally, and even if electricity systems are unlikely to go fully green this decade according to some outlooks, Africa's potential remains vast. The continent’s diverse energy resources, from oil and gas to renewables, offer a unique opportunity to build a more sustainable and resilient energy future. The Invest in African Energy Forum serves as an important platform for global stakeholders to collaborate, learn, and invest in the energy transformation taking place across the continent.

Mike Sangster’s insights at the forum will undoubtedly shape discussions on how companies like TotalEnergies are navigating the intersection of universal electricity access goals, sustainability, and economic growth in Africa. With Africa’s energy needs expected to increase exponentially in the coming decades, ensuring that these needs are met sustainably and equitably will be a priority for both policymakers and private investors.

As the global energy landscape continues to shift, the Invest in African Energy Forum provides a critical space for shaping the future of Africa’s energy sector, offering invaluable opportunities for investment, innovation, and collaboration.

 

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Power customers in British Columbia, Quebec have faced fees for refusing the installation of smart meters

NB Power Smart Meter Opt-Out Fees reflect cost causation principles set before the Energy and Utilities Board, covering meter reading charges, transmitter-disable options, rollout targets, and education plans across New Brunswick's smart metering program.

 

Key Points

Fees NB Power may apply to customers opting out of smart meters, reflecting cost causation and meter-reading costs.

✅ Based on cost causation and meter reading expenses

✅ BC and Quebec charge monthly opt-out surcharges

✅ Policy finalized during rollout after EUB review

 

NB Power customers who do not want a smart meter installed on their home could be facing a stiff fee for that decision, but so far the utility is not saying how much it might be.  

"It will be based on the principles of cost causation, but we have not gotten into the detail of what that fee would be at this point," said NB Power Senior Vice President of Operations Lori Clark at Energy and Utilities Board hearings on Friday.

In other jurisdictions that have already adopted smart meters, customers not wanting to participate have faced hundreds of dollars in extra charges, while Texas utilities' pullback from smart-home networks shows approaches can differ.

In British Columbia, power customers are charged a meter reading fee of $32.40 per month if they refuse a smart meter, or $20 per month if they accept a smart meter but insist its radio transmitter be turned off. That's a cost of between $240 and $388.80 per year for customers to opt out.

In Quebec, smart meters were installed beginning in 2012. Customers who refused the devices were initially charged $98 to opt out plus a meter reading fee of $17 per month. That was eventually cut by Quebec's energy board in 2014 to a $15 refusal fee and a $5 per month meter reading surcharge.

NB Power said it may be a year or more before it settles on its own fee.

"The opt out policy will be developed and implemented as part of the roll out.  It will be one of the last things we do," said Clark.

 

Customers need to be on board

NB Power is in front of the New Brunswick Energy and Utilities Board seeking permission to spend $122.7 million to install 350,000 smart meters province wide, as neighboring markets grapple with major rate increases that heighten affordability concerns.  

The meters are capable of transmitting consumption data of customers back to NB Power in real time, which the utility said will allow for a number of innovations in pricing and service, and help address old meter inaccuracies that affected some households.

The meters require near universal adoption by customers to maximize their financial benefit — like eliminating more than $20 million a year NB Power currently spends to read meters manually. The utility has said the switch will not succeed if too many customers opt out.

"We certainly wouldn't be looking at making an investment of this size without having the customer with us," said Clark.

On Thursday, Kent County resident Daniel LeBlanc, who along with Roger Richard, is opposing the introduction of smart meters for health reasons, predicted a cool reception for the technology in many parts of the province, given concerns that include health effects and billing disputes in Nova Scotia reported elsewhere.

"If one were to ask most of the people in the rural areas, I'm not sure you would get a lot of takers for this infrastructure," said LeBlanc, who is concerned with the long-term effect microwave frequencies used by the meters to transmit data may have on human health.

That issue is before the EUB next week.

 

Haven't tested the waters

NB Power acknowledged it has not measured public opinion on adopting smart meters but is confident it can convince customers it is a good idea for them and the utility, even as seasonal rate proposals in New Brunswick have prompted consumer backlash.

"People don't understand what the smart meter is," said Clark. "We need to educate our customers first to allow them to make an informed decision so that will be part of the roll out plan."

Clark noted that smart meters, helped by stiff opting out penalties, were eventually accepted by 98 per cent of customers in British Columbia and by 97.4 per cent of customers in Quebec.

"We will check and adjust along the way if there are issues with customer uptake," said Clark.

 

"This is very similar to what has been done in other jurisdictions and they haven't had those challenges."

 

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Starting Texas Schools After Labor Day: Power Grid and Cost Benefits?

Texas After-Labor Day School Start could ease ERCOT's power grid strain by shifting peak demand, lowering air-conditioning loads in schools, improving grid reliability, reducing electricity costs, and curbing emissions during extreme heat the summer months.

 

Key Points

A proposed calendar shift to start school after Labor Day to lower ERCOT peak demand, costs, and grid risk.

✅ Cuts school HVAC loads during peak summer heat

✅ Lowers costly peaker plant use and electricity rates

✅ Requires calendar changes, testing and activities shifts

 

As Texas faces increasing demands on its power grid, a new proposal is gaining traction: starting the school year after Labor Day. This idea, reported by the Dallas News, suggests that delaying the start of the academic year could help alleviate some of the pressure on the state’s electricity grid during the peak summer months, potentially leading to both grid stability and financial savings. Here’s an in-depth look at how this proposed change could impact Texas’s energy landscape and education system.

The Context of Power Grid Strain

Texas's power grid, operated by the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), has faced significant challenges in recent years. Extreme weather events, record-breaking temperatures, and high energy demand have strained the grid, and some analyses argue that climate change, not demand is the biggest challenge today, leading to concerns about reliability and stability. The summer months are particularly taxing, as the demand for air conditioning surges, often pushing the grid to its limits.

In this context, the idea of adjusting the school calendar to start after Labor Day has been proposed as a potential strategy to help manage electricity demand. By delaying the start of school, proponents argue that it could reduce the load on the power grid during peak usage periods, thereby easing some of the stress on energy resources.

Potential Benefits for the Power Grid

The concept of delaying the school year is rooted in the potential benefits for the power grid. During the hottest months of summer, the demand for electricity often spikes as families use air conditioning to stay cool, and utilities warn to prepare for blackouts as summer takes hold. School buildings, typically large and energy-intensive facilities, contribute significantly to this demand when they are in operation.

Starting school later could help reduce this peak demand, as schools would be closed during the hottest months when the grid is under the most pressure. This reduction in demand could help prevent grid overloads and reduce the risk of power outages, at a time when longer, more frequent outages are afflicting the U.S. power grid, ultimately contributing to a more stable and reliable electricity supply.

Additionally, a decrease in peak demand could help lower electricity costs. Power plants, particularly those that are less efficient and more expensive to operate, are often brought online during periods of high demand. By reducing the peak load, the state could potentially minimize the need for these costly power sources, leading to lower overall energy costs.

Financial and Environmental Considerations

The financial implications of starting school after Labor Day extend beyond just the power grid. By reducing energy consumption during peak periods, the state could see significant savings on electricity costs. This, in turn, could lead to lower utility bills for schools, businesses, and residents alike, a meaningful relief as millions risk electricity shut-offs during summer heat.

Moreover, reducing the demand for electricity from fossil fuel sources can have positive environmental impacts. Lower peak demand may reduce the reliance on less environmentally friendly energy sources, and aligns with calls to invest in a smarter electricity infrastructure nationwide, thereby decreasing greenhouse gas emissions and contributing to overall environmental sustainability.

Challenges and Trade-offs

While the proposal offers potential benefits, it also comes with challenges and trade-offs. Adjusting the school calendar would require significant changes to the academic schedule, potentially affecting extracurricular activities, summer programs, and family plans, and comparisons to California's reliability challenges underscore the complexity. Additionally, there could be resistance from various stakeholders, including parents, educators, and students, who are accustomed to the current school calendar.

There are also logistical considerations to address, such as how a delayed start might impact standardized testing schedules and the academic calendar for higher education institutions. These factors would need to be carefully evaluated to ensure that the proposed changes do not adversely affect educational outcomes or create unintended consequences.

Looking Ahead

The idea of starting Texas schools after Labor Day represents an innovative approach to addressing the challenges facing the state’s power grid. By potentially reducing peak demand and lowering energy costs, and alongside efforts to connect Texas's grid to the rest of the nation, this proposal could contribute to greater grid stability and financial savings. However, careful consideration and planning will be essential to navigate the complexities of altering the school calendar and to ensure that the benefits outweigh the challenges.

As Texas continues to explore solutions for managing its power grid and energy resources, the proposal to shift the school year schedule provides an intriguing possibility. It reflects a broader trend of seeking creative and multifaceted approaches to balancing energy demand, environmental sustainability, and public needs.

In conclusion, starting schools after Labor Day could offer tangible benefits for Texas’s power grid and financial well-being. As discussions on this proposal advance, it will be important to weigh all factors and engage stakeholders to ensure a successful and equitable implementation.

 

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U.S Bans Russian Uranium to Bolster Domestic Industry

U.S. Russian Uranium Import Ban reshapes nuclear fuel supply, bolstering energy security, domestic enrichment, and sanctions policy while diversifying reactor-grade uranium sources and supply chains through allies, waivers, and funding to sustain utilities and reliability.

 

Key Points

A U.S. law halting Russian uranium imports to boost energy security diversify nuclear fuel and revive U.S. enrichment.

✅ Cuts Russian revenue; reduces geopolitical risk.

✅ Funds U.S. enrichment; supports reactor fuel supply.

✅ Enables waivers to prevent utility shutdowns.

 

In a move aimed at reducing reliance on Russia and fostering domestic energy security for the long term, the United States has banned imports of Russian uranium, a critical component of nuclear fuel. This decision, signed into law by President Biden in May 2024, marks a significant shift in the U.S. nuclear fuel supply chain and has far-reaching economic and geopolitical implications.

For decades, Russia has been a major supplier of enriched uranium, a processed form of uranium used to power nuclear reactors. The U.S. relies on Russia for roughly a quarter of its enriched uranium needs, feeding the nation's network of 94 nuclear reactors operated by utilities which generate nearly 20% of the country's electricity. This dependence has come under scrutiny in recent years, particularly following Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

The ban on Russian uranium is a multifaceted response. First and foremost, it aims to cripple a key revenue stream for the Russian government. Uranium exports are a significant source of income for Russia, and by severing this economic tie, the U.S. hopes to weaken Russia's financial capacity to wage war.

Second, the ban serves as a national energy security measure. Relying on a potentially hostile nation for such a critical resource creates vulnerabilities. The possibility of Russia disrupting uranium supplies, either through political pressure or in the event of a wider conflict, is a major concern. Diversifying the U.S. nuclear fuel supply chain mitigates this risk.

Third, the ban is intended to revitalize the domestic uranium mining and enrichment industry, building on earlier initiatives such as Trump's uranium order announced previously. The U.S. has historically been a major uranium producer, but environmental concerns and competition from cheaper foreign sources led to a decline in domestic production. The ban, coupled with $2.7 billion in federal funding allocated to expand domestic uranium enrichment capacity, aims to reverse this trend.

The transition away from Russian uranium won't be immediate. The law includes a grace period until mid-August 2024, and waivers can be granted to utilities facing potential shutdowns if alternative suppliers aren't readily available. Finding new sources of enriched uranium will require forging partnerships with other uranium-producing nations like Kazakhstan, Canada on minerals cooperation, and Australia.

The long-term success of this strategy hinges on several factors. First, successfully ramping up domestic uranium production will require overcoming regulatory hurdles and addressing environmental concerns, alongside nuclear innovation to modernize the fuel cycle. Second, securing reliable alternative suppliers at competitive prices is crucial, and supportive policy frameworks such as the Nuclear Innovation Act now in law can help. Finally, ensuring the continued safe and efficient operation of existing nuclear reactors is paramount.

The ban on Russian uranium is a bold move with significant economic and geopolitical implications. While challenges lie ahead, the potential benefits of a more secure and domestically sourced nuclear fuel supply chain are undeniable. The success of this initiative will be closely watched not only by the U.S. but also by other nations seeking to lessen their dependence on Russia for critical resources.

 

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KHNP is being considered for Bulgarian Nuclear Power Plant Project

KHNP Shortlisted for Belene Nuclear Power Plant, named by the Bulgarian Energy Ministry alongside Rosatom and CNNC; highlights APR1400 reactor expertise, EPC credentials, and expansion into the European nuclear energy market.

 

Key Points

KHNP is a strategic investor candidate for Bulgaria's Belene NPP, leveraging APR1400 and European market entry.

✅ Selected with Rosatom and CNNC by Bulgarian Energy Ministry

✅ Builds on APR1400 reactor design and EPC track record

✅ Positions KHNP for EU nuclear projects and O&M services

 

Korea Hydro & Nuclear Power (KHNP) has been selected as one of the three strategic investor candidates for a Bulgarian nuclear power plant project amid global nuclear project milestones worldwide.

The Bulgarian Energy Ministry selected KHNP of Korea, RosAtom of Russia and CNNC of China as strategic investor candidates for the construction of the Belene Nuclear Power Plant, KHNP said on Dec. 20. The Belene Nuclear Power Plant is the second nuclear power plant that Bulgaria plans to build following the 2,000-megawatt Kozloduy Nuclear Power Plant built in 1991 during the Soviet Union era. The project budget is estimated at 10 billion euros.

By being included in the shortlist for the Bulgarian project, KHNP has boosted the possibility of making a foray into the European nuclear power plant market, as India takes steps to get nuclear back on track worldwide. KHNP began to export nuclear power plants in 2009 by winning the UAE Barakah Nuclear Power Plant Project, with Barakah Unit 1 reaching 100% power as it moves toward commercial operations. The UAE plant will be based on the APR1400, a next-generation Korean nuclear reactor that is used in Shin Kori Units 3 and 4 in Korea.

The ARP1400 is a Korean nuclear reactor developed by KHNP with investment of about 230 billion won for 10 years from 1992. The nuclear reactor became the first non-U.S. type reactor to receive a design certificate (DC) from the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), as China's nuclear energy program continues on a steady development track globally. By receiving the DC, its safety was internationally recognized. In June, the company also won the maintenance project for the Barakah Nuclear Power Plant, completing the entire cycle from the construction of the nuclear power plant to its design, operation and maintenance. However, U.S. and U.K. companies took part of the maintenance project for the nuclear power plant.

In July, KHNP officials visited Turkey and contacted local energy officials to prepare for nuclear power plant projects to be launched in that country, as Bangladesh develops nuclear power with IAEA assistance in the region. Earlier in May, the company also submitted a proposal to participate in the construction of a new nuclear power plant in Kazakhstan, while Kenya moves forward with plans for a $5 billion plant.

 

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Global oil demand to decline in 2020 as Coronavirus weighs heavily on markets

COVID-19 Impact on Global Oil Demand 2020 signals an IEA forecast of declining consumption as travel restrictions curb transport fuels, disrupt energy markets, and shift OPEC and non-OPEC supply dynamics amid economic slowdown.

 

Key Points

IEA sees first demand drop since 2009 as COVID-19 curbs travel, weakening transport fuels and unsettling energy markets.

✅ IEA base case: 2020 demand at 99.9 mb/d, down 90 kb/d from 2019.

✅ Travel restrictions hit transport fuels; China drives the decline.

✅ Scenarios: low -730 kb/d; high +480 kb/d in 2020.

 

Global oil demand is expected to decline in 2020 as the impact of the new coronavirus (COVID-19) spreads around the world, constricting travel and broader economic activity, according to the International Energy Agency’s latest oil market forecast.

The situation remains fluid, creating an extraordinary degree of uncertainty over what the full global impact of the virus will be. In the IEA’s central base case, even as global CO2 emissions flatlined in 2019 according to the IEA, demand this year drops for the first time since 2009 because of the deep contraction in oil consumption in China, and major disruptions to global travel and trade.

“The coronavirus crisis is affecting a wide range of energy markets – including coal-fired electricity generation, gas and renewables – but its impact on oil markets is particularly severe because it is stopping people and goods from moving around, dealing a heavy blow to demand for transport fuels,” said Dr Fatih Birol, the IEA’s Executive Director. “This is especially true in China, the largest energy consumer in the world, which accounted for more than 80% of global oil demand growth last year. While the repercussions of the virus are spreading to other parts of the world, what happens in China will have major implications for global energy and oil markets.”

The IEA now sees global oil demand at 99.9 million barrels a day in 2020, down around 90,000 barrels a day from 2019. This is a sharp downgrade from the IEA’s forecast in February, which predicted global oil demand would grow by 825,000 barrels a day in 2020.

The short-term outlook for the oil market will ultimately depend on how quickly governments move to contain the coronavirus outbreak, how successful their efforts are, and what lingering impact the global health crisis has on economic activity.

To account for the extreme uncertainty facing energy markets, the IEA has developed two other scenarios for how global oil demand could evolve this year. In a more pessimistic low case, global measures fail to contain the virus, and global demand falls by 730,000 barrels a day in 2020. In a more optimistic high case, the virus is contained quickly around the world, and global demand grows by 480,000 barrels a day.

“We are following the situation extremely closely and will provide regular updates to our forecasts as the picture becomes clearer,” Dr Birol said. “The impact of the coronavirus on oil markets may be temporary. But the longer-term challenges facing the world’s suppliers are not going to go away, especially those heavily dependent on oil and gas revenues. As the IEA has repeatedly said, these producer countries need more dynamic and diversified economies in order to navigate the multiple uncertainties that we see today.”

The IEA also published its medium-term outlook examining the key issues in global demand, supply, refining and trade to 2025, as well as the trajectory of the global energy transition now shaping markets. Following a contraction in 2020 and an expected sharp rebound in 2021, yearly growth in global oil demand is set to slow as consumption of transport fuels grows more slowly and as national net-zero pathways, with Canada needing more electricity to reach net-zero influencing power demand, according to the report. Between 2019 and 2025, global oil demand is expected to grow at an average annual rate of just below 1 million barrels a day. Over the period as whole, demand rises by a total of 5.7 million barrels a day, with China and India accounting for about half of the growth.

At the same time, the world’s oil production capacity is expected to rise by 5.9 million barrels a day, with more than three-quarters of it coming from non-OPEC producers, the report forecasts. But production growth in the United States and other non-OPEC countries is set to lose momentum after 2022, amid shifts in Wall Street's energy strategy linked to policy signals, allowing OPEC producers from the Middle East to turn the taps back up to help keep the global oil market in balance.

The medium-term market report, Oil 2020, also considers the impact of clean energy transitions on oil market trends. Demand growth for gasoline and diesel between 2019 and 2025 is forecast to weaken as countries around the world implement policies to improve efficiency and cut carbon dioxide emissions – and as solar power becomes the cheapest electricity in many markets and electric vehicles increase in popularity. The impact of energy transitions on oil supply remains unclear, with many companies prioritising short-cycle projects for the coming years.

“The coronavirus crisis is adding to the uncertainties the global oil industry faces as it contemplates new investments and business strategies,” Dr Birol said. “The pressures on companies are changing, with European oil majors turning electric to diversify. They need to show that they can deliver not just the energy that economies rely on, but also the emissions reductions that the world needs to help tackle our climate challenge.”

 

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