PSC chair discusses regulation bill with lawmakers

By Associated Press


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Legislation to give Maryland regulators more authority to direct utilities to build new power plants won't have much effect on consumers' electric bills for at least several years, Maryland's Public Service Commissioner said.

Douglas Nazarian, the PSC chairman, has been discussing the measure with members of the Senate Finance Committee for the past two days. The bill, which is backed by Gov. Martin O'Malley, would return some of the authority that the PSC lost as a result of Maryland's decision to deregulate in 1999.

Lawmakers, who have been besieged by e-mails and phone calls from constituents with high energy bills, have been interested in knowing how this legislation could spell relief.

"Passing this bill or not passing this bill is not going to materially move peoples' rates up and down this year or next year or the year after or probably the year after that," Nazarian said. "What it's going to do is change the way we manage the supply and demand mix, which over time will affect rates."

One of the main problems, supporters of re-regulation say, is that Maryland has not had significant power generation built in the state since 1992. Consequently, the state has to import more than 30 percent of its electricity from other states, which costs more.

A key part of the bill gives the PSC the ability not only to direct utilities to build power plants, but it also gives electric companies eminent domain to build on a site controlled by another company. Critics of the current system say some companies don't want to build more power plants, because they are benefiting from the existing market conditions.

"This bill would allow us not only to direct somebody to build but would allow us to give them the authority to go get the good site to build on, so we wouldn't be subject to market forces in that regard," Nazarian said.

Some senators on the committee, however, have expressed wariness about moving quickly on the bill.

Sen. Kathy Klausmeier, D-Baltimore County, pointed out that lawmakers spent far longer studying the idea of deregulation before making a decision on the complicated issue, a decision many concede was a mistake even with the long deliberation.

"We have tons and tons of questions, and I think it's something that we have to take a real good hard look at it before we just jump into it," Klausmeier said in an interview. "The question is, if we go into a re-regulated system again and the prices of electricity go up or they stay they same, is that the real answer?"

Sen. Rob Garagiola, D-Montgomery, also has questions about the measure. He pointed out that other deregulated states are seeing new power plants developed, and he said he has become "far less convinced that we need to do this."

"I'm not convinced necessarily that pushing this legislation forward and saying we want to go back to re-regulation is going to be better for the ratepayers from a cost perspective," Garagiola said, when Nazarian also discussed the bill with the committee.

Sen. E.J. Pipkin, who supports the bill, said he's optimistic it will move forward, despite the questions lawmakers have.

"This is a complicated issue," Pipkin, R-Cecil said. "There's always a lot of questions surrounding it. We're in the process of dealing with those questions, and now ultimately we think we can get that done."

Sen. James Rosapepe, who has been a loud voice for re-regulation in the Senate alongside Pipkin, also said he's upbeat.

"The factual case for re-regulation gets stronger every day the committee meets, so I'm optimistic that we've passed the beginning of the end of deregulation. Now we're just talking about the when and the how," Rosapepe said.

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Saudis set to 'boost wind by over 6GW'

Saudi Arabia Wind Power Market set to lead the Middle East, driven by Vision 2030 renewables goals, REPDO tenders, and PIF backing, adding 6.2GW wind capacity by 2028 alongside solar PV diversification.

 

Key Points

It is the emerging national segment leading Middle East wind growth, targeting 6.2GW by 2028 under Vision 2030 policies.

✅ Adds 6.2GW, 46% of regional wind capacity by 2028

✅ REPDO tenders and PIF funding underpin pipeline

✅ Targets: 16GW wind, 40GW solar under Vision 2030

 

Saudi Arabia will become a regional heavyweight in the Middle East's wind power market adding over 6GW in the next 10 years, according to new research by Wood Mackenzie Power & Renewables.

The report – 'Middle East Wind Power Market Outlook, 2019-2028’ – said developers will build 6.2GW of wind capacity in the country or 46% of the region’s total wind capacity additions between 2019 and 2028.

Wood Mackenzie Power & Renewables senior analyst Sohaib Malik said: “The integration of renewables in Vision 2030’s objectives underlines strong political commitment within Saudi Arabia.

“The level of Saudi ambition for wind and solar PV varies significantly, despite the cost parity between both technologies during the first round of tenders in 2018.”

Saudi Arabia has set a 16GW target for wind by 2030 and 40GW for solar, plans to solicit 60 GW of clean energy over the next decade, Wood Mackenzie added.

“Moving forward, the Renewable Energy Project Development Office will award 850MW of wind capacity in 2019, which is expected to be commissioned in 2021-2022, and increase the local content requirement in future tendering rounds,” Malik said.

However, Saudi Arabia will fall short of its current 2030 renewables target, despite growth projections and regional leadership, the report said.

Some 70% of the renewables capacity target is to be supported by the Public Investment Fund (PIF), the Saudi sovereign wealth fund, while the remaining capacity is to be awarded through REPDO.

“A central concern is the PIF’s lack of track record in the renewables sector and its limited in-house sectoral expertise,” said Malik

“REPDO, on the other hand, completed two renewables request for proposals after pre-developing the sites,” he said.

PIF is estimated to have $230bn of assets – targeted to reach $2 trillion under Vision 2030 – driven by investments in a variety of sectors ranging from electric vehicles to public infrastructure, Wood Mackenzie said.

“There is little doubt about the fund’s financial muscle, however, its past investment strategy focused on established firms in traditional industries,” Malik added.

“Aspirations to develop a value chain for wind and PV technologies locally is a different ball game and requires the PIF to acquire new capabilities for effective oversight of these ventures,” he said.

The report noted that regional volatility is expected to remain, with strong positive growth, driven by Jordan and Iran in 2018 expected to reverse in 2019, and policy shifts, as in Canada’s scaled-back projections, can influence outcomes.

Post-2020 Wood Mackenzie Power & Renewables sees regional demand returning to steady growth as global renewables set more records elsewhere.

“In 2018, developers added 185MW and 63MW of wind capacity in Jordan and Iran, respectively, compared to 53MW of capacity across the entire region in 2017, following a record year for renewables in 2016,” said Malik.

“The completion of the 89MW Al Fujeij and the 86MW Al Rajef projects in 2018 indicates that Jordan has 375MW of the region’s operational 675MW wind capacity.

“Iran followed with 278MW of installed capacity at the end of 2018. A slowdown in 2019 is expected, as project development activity softens in Iran.

“Additionally, delays in awarding the 400MW Dumat Al Jandal project in Saudi Arabia will limit annual capacity additions to 184MW.”

He added that a maturing project pipeline in the region supports the 2020-2021 outlook, even as wind power grew despite Covid-19 globally.

“Saudi Arabian demand serves as the foundation for regional demand. Regional demand diversification is also occurring, with Lebanon set to add 200-400MW to its existing permitted capacity pipeline of 202MW in 2019,” he said

“These developments pave the way for the addition of 2GW of wind capacity between 2019 and 2021.”

Wood Mackenzie Power & Renewables added that the outlook for solar in the region is “much more positive” than wind.

“Compared to only 6GW of wind power capacity, developers will add 53GW of PV capacity through 2024,” said Malik.

He added: “Solar PV, supported by trends such as China’s rapid PV growth in 2016, has become a natural choice for many countries in the region, which is endowed with world class solar energy resources.

“The increased focus on solar energy is demonstrated by ambitious PV targets across the region.”

 

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Canada Faces Critical Crunch in Electrical Supply

Canada Electricity Supply Crunch underscores grid reliability risks, aging infrastructure, and rising demand, pushing upgrades in transmission, energy storage, smart grid technology, and renewable energy integration to protect industry, consumers, and climate goals.

 

Key Points

A nationwide power capacity shortfall stressing the grid, raising outage risks and slowing the renewable transition.

✅ Demand growth and aging infrastructure strain transmission capacity

✅ Smart grid, storage, and interties improve reliability and flexibility

✅ Accelerated renewables and efficiency reduce fossil fuel reliance

 

Canada, known for its vast natural resources and robust energy sector, is now confronting a significant challenge: a crunch in electrical supply. A recent report from EnergyNow.ca highlights the growing concerns over Canada’s electricity infrastructure, revealing that the country is facing a critical shortage that could impact both consumers and industries alike. This development raises pressing questions about the future of Canada’s energy landscape and its implications for the nation’s economy and environmental goals.

The Current Electrical Supply Dilemma

According to EnergyNow.ca, Canada’s electrical supply is under unprecedented strain due to several converging factors. One major issue is the rapid pace of economic and population growth, particularly in urban centers. This expansion has increased demand for electricity, putting additional pressure on an already strained grid. Compounding this issue are aging infrastructure and a lack of sufficient investment in modernizing the electrical grid to meet current and future needs, with interprovincial frictions such as the B.C. challenge to Alberta's export restrictions further complicating coordination.

The report also points out that Canada’s reliance on certain types of energy sources, including fossil fuels, exacerbates the problem. While the country has made strides in renewable energy, including developments in clean grids and batteries across provinces, the transition has not kept pace with the rising demand for electricity. This imbalance highlights a crucial gap in Canada’s energy strategy that needs urgent attention.

Economic and Social Implications

The shortage in electrical supply has significant economic and social implications. For businesses, particularly those in energy-intensive sectors such as manufacturing and technology, the risk of power outages or unreliable service can lead to operational disruptions and financial losses. Increased energy costs due to supply constraints could also affect profit margins and competitiveness on both domestic and international fronts, with electricity exports at risk amid trade tensions.

Consumers are not immune to the impact of this electrical supply crunch. The potential for rolling blackouts or increased energy prices, as debates over electricity rates and innovation continue nationwide, can strain household budgets and affect overall quality of life. Additionally, inconsistent power supply can affect essential services, including healthcare facilities and emergency services, highlighting the critical nature of reliable electricity for public safety and well-being.

Investment and Infrastructure Upgrades

Addressing the electrical supply crunch requires significant investment in infrastructure and technology, and recent tariff threats have boosted support for Canadian energy projects that could accelerate these efforts. The EnergyNow.ca report underscores the need for modernizing the electrical grid to enhance capacity and resilience. This includes upgrading transmission lines, improving energy storage solutions, and expanding the integration of renewable energy sources such as wind and solar power.

Investing in smart grid technology is also essential. Smart grids use digital communication and advanced analytics to optimize electricity distribution, detect outages, and manage demand more effectively. By adopting these technologies, Canada can better balance supply and demand, reduce the risk of blackouts, and improve overall efficiency in energy use.

Renewable Energy Transition

Transitioning to renewable energy sources is a critical component of addressing the electrical supply crunch. While Canada has made progress in this area, the pace of change needs to accelerate under the new Clean Electricity Regulations for 2050 that set long-term targets. Expanding the deployment of wind, solar, and hydroelectric power can help diversify the energy mix and reduce reliance on fossil fuels. Additionally, supporting innovations in energy storage and grid management will enhance the reliability and sustainability of renewable energy.

The EnergyNow.ca report highlights several ongoing initiatives and projects aimed at increasing renewable energy capacity. However, these efforts must be scaled up and supported by both public policy and private investment to ensure that Canada can meet its energy needs and climate goals.

Policy and Strategic Planning

Effective policy and strategic planning are crucial for addressing the electrical supply challenges, with an anticipated electricity market reshuffle in at least one province signaling change ahead. Government action is needed to support infrastructure investment, incentivize renewable energy adoption, and promote energy efficiency measures. Collaborative efforts between federal, provincial, and municipal governments, along with private sector stakeholders, will be key to developing a comprehensive strategy for managing Canada’s electrical supply.

Public awareness and engagement are also important. Educating consumers about energy conservation practices and encouraging the adoption of energy-efficient technologies can contribute to reducing overall demand and alleviating some of the pressure on the electrical grid.

Conclusion

Canada’s electrical supply crunch is a pressing issue that demands immediate and sustained action. The growing demand for electricity, coupled with aging infrastructure and a lagging transition to renewable energy, poses significant challenges for the country’s economy and daily life. Addressing this issue will require substantial investment in infrastructure, advancements in technology, and effective policy measures. By taking a proactive and collaborative approach, Canada can navigate this crisis and build a more resilient and sustainable energy future.

 

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'Transformative change': Wind-generated electricity starting to outpace coal in Alberta

Alberta wind power surpasses coal as AESO reports record renewable energy feeding the grid, with natural gas conversions, solar growth, energy storage, and decarbonization momentum lowering carbon intensity across Alberta's electricity system.

 

Key Points

AESO data shows wind surpassing coal in Alberta, driven by coal retirements, gas conversions, and growing renewables.

✅ AESO reports wind output above coal several times this week

✅ Coal units retire or convert to natural gas, boosting renewables

✅ Carbon intensity falls; storage and solar improve grid reliability

 

Marking a significant shift in Alberta energy history, wind generation trends provided more power to the province's energy grid than coal several times this week.

According to data from the Alberta Energy System Operator (AESO) released this week, wind generation units contributed more energy to the grid than coal at times for several days. On Friday afternoon, wind farms contributed more than 1,700 megawatts of power to the grid, compared to around 1,260 megawatts from coal stations.

"The grid is going through a period of transformative change when we look at the generation fleet, specifically as it relates to the coal assets in the province," Mike Deising, AESO spokesperson, told CTV News in an interview.

The shift in electricity generation comes as more coal plants come offline in Alberta, or transition to cleaner energy through natural gas generation, including the last of TransAlta's units at the Keephills Plant west of Edmonton.

Only three coal generation stations remain online in the province, at the Genesee plant southwest of Edmonton, as the coal phase-out timeline advances. Less available coal power, means renewable energy like wind and solar make up a greater portion of the grid.

 

EVOLUTION OF THE GRID
"Our grid is changing, and it's evolving," Deising said, adding that more units have converted to natural gas and companies are making significant investments into solar and wind energy.

For energy analyst Kevin Birn with IHS Markit, that trend is only going to continue.

"What we've seen for the last 24 to 36 months is a dramatic acceleration in ambition, policy, and projects globally around cleaner forms of energy or lower carbon forms of energy," Birn said.

Birn, who is also chief analyst of Canadian Oil Markets, added that not only has the public appetite for cleaner energy helped fuel the shift, but technological advancements have made renewables like wind and solar more cost-efficient.

"Alberta was traditionally heavily coal-reliant," he said. "(Now) western Canada has quite a diverse energy base."


LESS CARBON-INTENSIVE
According to Birn, the shift in energy production marks a significant reduction in carbon emissions as Alberta progresses toward its last coal plant closure milestone.

Ten years ago, IHS Markit estimates that Alberta's grid contributed about 900 kilograms of carbon dioxide equivalent per megawatt-hour of energy generation.

"That (figure is) really representing the dominance and role of coal in that grid," Birn said.

Current estimates show that figure is closer to 600 kilograms of CO2 equivalent.

"That means the power you and I are using is less carbon-intensive," Birn said, adding that figure will continue to fall over the next couple of years.


RENEWABLES HERE TO STAY
While many debate whether Alberta's energy is getting clean enough fast enough, Birn believes change is coming.

"It's been a half-decade of incredible price volatility in the oil market which had really dominated this sector and region," the analyst said.

"When I think of the future, I see the power sector building on large-scale renewables, which means decarbonization, and that provides an opportunity for those tech companies looking for clean energy places to land facilities."

Coal and natural gas are considered baseline assets by the AESO, where generation capacity does not shift dramatically, though some utilities report declining coal returns in other markets.

"Wind is a variable resource. It will generate when the wind is blowing, and it obviously won't when the wind is not," Deising said. "Wind and solar can ramp quickly, but they can drop off quite quickly, and we have to be prepared.

"We factor that into our daily planning and assessments," he added. "We follow those trends and know where the renewables are going to show up on the system, how many renewables are going to show up."

Deising says one wind plant in Alberta currently has an energy storage capacity to preserve renewably generated electricity during summer demand records and peak hours as needed. As the technology becomes more affordable, he expects more plants to follow suit.

"As a system operator, our job is to make sure as (the grid) is evolving we can continue to provide reliable power to Albertans at every moment every day," Deising said. "We just have to watch the system more carefully." 

 

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Nova Scotia Power delays start of controversial new charge for solar customers

Nova Scotia Power solar charge proposes an $8/kW monthly system access fee on net metering customers, citing grid costs. UARB review, carbon credits, rate hikes, and solar industry impacts fuel political and consumer backlash.

 

Key Points

A proposed $8/kW monthly grid access fee on net metered solar customers, delayed to Feb 1, 2023, pending UARB review.

✅ $8/kW monthly system access fee on net metering

✅ Delay to Feb 1, 2023 after industry and political pushback

✅ UARB review; debate over grid costs and carbon credits

 

Nova Scotia Power has pushed back by a year the start date of a proposed new charge for customers who generate electricity and sell it back to the grid, following days of concern from the solar industry and politicians worried that it will damage the sector.

The company applied to the Nova Scotia Utility and Review Board (UARB) last week for various changes, including a "system access charge" of $8 per kilowatt monthly on net metered installations, and the province cannot order the utility to lower rates under current law. The vast majority of the province's 4,100 net metering customers are residential customers with solar power, according to the application. 

The proposed charge would have come into effect Tuesday if approved, but Nova Scotia Power said in a news release Tuesday it will change the date in its filing from Feb. 1, 2022, to Feb. 1, 2023.

"We understand that the solar industry was taken off guard," utility CEO Peter Gregg said in an interview.

"There could have been an opportunity to have more conversations in advance."

Gregg said the utility will meet with members of the solar industry over the next year to work on finding solutions that support the sector's growth, while addressing what NSP sees as an inequity in the net metering system.

NSP recognized that customers who choose solar invest a significant amount and pay for the electricity they use, but they don't pay for costs associated with accessing the electrical grid when they need energy, such as on cold winter evenings when the sun is not shining.

"I know that's hit a nerve, but it doesn't take away the fact that it is an issue," Gregg said.

He said this is an issue utilities are navigating around North America, where seasonal rate designs have sparked consumer backlash in New Brunswick, and NSP is open to hearing ideas for other models of charges or fees.

The utility's suggested system access charge closely resembles one proposed in California, which has also raised major concerns from the solar industry and been criticized by the likes of Elon Musk, and has parallels to Massachusetts solar demand charges as well.

Although the "solar profile" of Nova Scotia and California is very different, with far more solar customers in that state, and in other provinces such as Saskatchewan, NDP criticism of 8% hikes has intensified affordability debates, Gregg said the fundamental issues are the same.

For those with a typical 10-kilowatt solar system, which generates around $1,800 of electricity a year, the new charge would mean those customers would be required to pay $960 back to NSP. That would roughly double the length of time it takes for those customers to pay off their investment for the panels.

David Brushett, chair of Solar Nova Scotia, said he relayed concerns from solar installers and others in the industry to Gregg on Monday. 

Brushett said the year delay is a positive first step, but he is still calling on the province to take a strong stance against the application, which has led to customers cancelling their panel installations and companies considering layoffs.

"There's still an urgency to this situation that hasn't been addressed, and we need to kind of protect the industry," he said Tuesday.

NSP's original application proposed exempting net metering customers who enrolled before Feb. 1, 2022, from the charge for 25 years after they sign up. But any benefit would be lost if those customers sold their home, and the exemption wouldn't extend to the new buyers, said Brushett.


Carbon offsets missing from equation: industry
Brushett said NSP "completely ignored" the fact that it's getting free carbon offset credits from homeowners who use solar energy under the provincial cap and trade program.

If the net metering system continues as is, NSP has said non-solar customers would pay about $55 million between now and 2030. That number assumes about 2,000 people sign up for net metering each year over the next nine years.

When asked whether those carbon emission credits were factored into the calculations for the proposed charge, Gregg said, "I don't believe in the current structure it is, but it's something that certainly we'd be open to hearing about."

Brushett said his group is finalizing a legal response to NSP's proposal and has already filed an official complaint against the company with the UARB.


Base charge on actual electrical output: customer
At least one shareholder in NSP parent company Emera is considering selling his shares in response to the application.

Joe Hood, a shareholder from Middle Sackville, said the proposed charge won't apply to his existing 11.16-kilowatt solar system, but if it did, it would cost him $1,071 a year.

"I am offended that a company I would invest in would do this to the solar industry in Nova Scotia," he said.

According to his meter, Hood said he pushed 9,600 kilowatt hours of solar electricity to the grid last year— some only for a brief period, and all of which was used by his home by the end of the year.

Under the proposed charge, someone with one solar panel who goes away on vacation in the summer would push all their electricity to the grid, and be charged far less than someone with 10 panels who has used all their own power and hasn't pushed anything.

"Nova Scotia Power's argument is that it's an issue with the grid. Well, then it should be based on what touches the grid," Hood said.

Far from actually making the system fair for everyone, Hood said this charge places solar only in the hands of the super-rich or NSP, with projects like its community solar gardens in Amherst, N.S.


Green Party suggests legislation update
Nova Scotia's Green Party also said Tuesday that Gregg's arguments of fairness are misleading, echoing earlier premier opposition to a 14% hike on rates.

The party is calling for an update to the Electricity Act that would "prevent penalizing any activity that helps Nova Scotia reach its emissions target," aligning with calls to make the electricity system more accountable to residents.

In its application, NSP has also asked to increase electricity rates for residential customers by at least 10 per cent over the next three years, amid debate that culminated in a 14% rate hike approval by regulators. 

The company wants to maintain its nine per cent rate of return.

NSP expects to earn $153 million this year, $192 million in 2023, and $213 million in 2024 from its rate of return. 

 

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Ontario tables legislation to lower electricity rates

Ontario Clean Energy Adjustment lowers hydro bills by shifting global adjustment costs, cutting time-of-use rates, and using OPG debt financing; ratepayers get inflation-capped increases for four years, then repay costs over 20 years.

 

Key Points

A 20-year line item repaying debt used to lower rates for 10 years by shifting global adjustment costs off hydro bills.

✅ 17% average bill cut takes effect after royal assent

✅ OPG-managed entity assumes debt for 10 years

✅ 20-year surcharge repays up to $28B plus interest

 

Ontarians will see lowered hydro bills for the next 10 years, but will then pay higher costs for the following 20 years, under new legislation tabled Thursday.

Ten weeks after announcing its plan to lower hydro bills, the Liberal government introduced legislation to lower time-of-use rates, take the cost of low-income and rural support programs off bills, and introduce new social programs.

It will lower time-of-use rates by removing from bills a portion of the global adjustment, a charge consumers pay for above-market rates to power producers. For the next 10 years, a new entity overseen by Ontario Power Generation will take on debt to pay that difference.

Then, the cost of paying back that debt with interest -- which the government says will be up to $28 billion -- will go back onto ratepayers' bills for the next 20 years as a "Clean Energy Adjustment."

An average 17-per-cent cut to bills will take effect 15 days after the hydro legislation receives royal assent, even as a Nov. 1 rate increase was set by the Ontario Energy Board, but there are just eight sitting days left before the Ontario legislature breaks for the summer. Energy Minister Glenn Thibeault insisted that leaves the opposition "plenty" of time for review and debate.

Premier Kathleen Wynne promised to cut hydro bills and later defended a 25% rate cut after widespread anger over rising costs helped send her approval ratings to record lows.

Electricity bills in the province have roughly doubled in the last decade, due in part to green energy initiatives, and Thibeault said the goal of this plan is to better spread out those costs.

"Like the mortgage on your house, this regime will cost more as we refinance over a longer period of time, but this is a more equitable and fair approach when we consider the lifespan of the clean energy investments, and generating stations across our province," he said.

NDP critic Peter Tabuns called it a "get-through-the-election" next June plan.

"We're going to take on a huge debt so Kathleen Wynne can look good on the hustings in the next few months and for decades we're going to pay for it," he said.

The legislation also holds rate increases to inflation for the next four years. After that, they'll rise more quickly, as illustrated by a leaked cabinet document the Progressive Conservatives unveiled Thursday.

The Liberals dismissed the document as containing outdated projections, but confirmed that it went before cabinet at some point before the government decided to go ahead with the hydro plan.

From about 2027 onward -- when consumers would start paying off the debt associated with the hydro plan -- Ontario electricity consumers will be paying about 12 per cent more than they would without the Liberal government's plan to cut costs in the short term, even though a deal with Quebec was not expected to reduce hydro bills, the government document projected.

But that was just one of many projections, said Energy Minister Glenn Thibeault.

"We have been working on this plan for months, and as we worked on it the documents and calculations evolved," he said.

The government's long-term energy plan is set to be updated this spring, and Thibeault said it will provide a more accurate look at how the hydro plan will reduce rates, even as a recovery rate could lead to higher hydro bills in certain circumstances.

Progressive Conservative critic Todd Smith said the "Clean Energy Adjustment" is nothing more than a revamped debt retirement charge, which was on bills from 2002 to 2016 to pay down debt left over from the old Ontario Hydro, the province's giant electrical utility that was split into multiple agencies in 1999 under the previous Conservative government.

"The minister can call it whatever he wants but it's right there in the graph, that there is going to be a new charge on the line," Smith said. "It's the debt retirement charge on steroids."

 

 

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As New Zealand gets serious about climate change, can electricity replace fossil fuels in time?

New Zealand Energy Transition will electrify transport and industry with renewables, grid-scale solar, wind farms, geothermal, batteries, demand response, pumped hydro, and transmission upgrades to manage dry-year risk and winter peak loads.

 

Key Points

A shift to renewables and smart demand to decarbonise transport and industry while ensuring reliable, affordable power.

✅ Electrifies transport and industrial heat with renewables

✅ Uses demand response, batteries, and pumped hydro for resilience

✅ Targets 99%+ renewable supply, managing dry-year and peak loads

 

As fossil fuels are phased out over the coming decades, the Climate Change Commission (CCC) suggests electricity will take up much of the slack, aligning with the vision of a sustainable electric planet powering our vehicle fleet and replacing coal and gas in industrial processes.

But can the electricity system really provide for this increased load where and when it is needed? The answer is “yes”, with some caveats.

Our research examines climate change impacts on the New Zealand energy system. It shows we’ll need to pay close attention to demand as well as supply. And we’ll have to factor in the impacts of climate change when we plan for growth in the energy sector.

 

Demand for electricity to grow
While electricity use has not increased in NZ in the past decade, many agencies project steeply rising demand in coming years. This is partly due to both increasing population and gross domestic product, but mostly due to the anticipated electrification of transport and industry, which could result in a doubling of demand by mid-century.

It’s hard to get a sense of the scale of the new generation required, but if wind was the sole technology employed to meet demand by 2050, between 10 and 60 new wind farms would be needed nationwide.

Of course, we won’t only build wind farms, as renewables are coming on strong and grid-scale solar, rooftop solar, new geothermal, some new small hydro plant and possibly tidal and wave power will all have a part to play.

 

Managing the demand
As well as providing more electricity supply, demand management and batteries will also be important. Our modelling shows peak demand (which usually occurs when everyone turns on their heaters and ovens at 6pm in winter) could be up to 40% higher by 2050 than it is now.

But meeting this daily period of high demand could see expensive plant sitting idle for much of the time (with the last 25% of generation capacity only used about 10% of the time).

This is particularly a problem in a renewable electricity system when the hydro lakes are dry, as hydro is one of the few renewable electricity sources that can be stored during the day (as water behind the dam) and used over the evening peak (by generating with that stored water).

Demand response will therefore be needed. For example, this might involve an industrial plant turning off when there is too much load on the electricity grid.

 

But by 2050, a significant number of households will also need smart appliances and meters that automatically use cheaper electricity at non-peak times. For example, washing machines and electric car chargers could run automatically at 2am, rather than 6pm when demand is high.

Our modelling shows a well set up demand response system could mitigate dry-year risk (when hydro lakes are low on water) in coming decades, where currently gas and coal generation is often used.

Instead of (or as well as) having demand response and battery systems to combat dry-year risk, a pumped storage system could be built. This is where water is pumped uphill when hydro lake inflows are plentiful, and used to generate electricity during dry periods.

The NZ Battery project is currently considering the potential for this in New Zealand, and debates such as whether we would use Site C's electricity offer relevant lessons.

 

Almost (but not quite) 100% renewable
Dry-year risk would be greatly reduced and there would be “greater greenhouse gas emissions savings” if the Interim Climate Change Committee’s (ICCC) 2019 recommendation to aim for 99% renewable electricity was adopted, rather than aiming for 100%.

A small amount of gas-peaking plant would therefore be retained. The ICCC said going from 99% to 100% renewable electricity by overbuilding would only avoid a very small amount of carbon emissions, at a very high cost.

Our modelling supports this view. The CCC’s draft advice on the issue also makes the point that, although 100% renewable electricity is the “desired end point”, timing is important to enable a smooth transition.

Despite these views, Energy Minister Megan Woods has said the government will be keeping the target of a 100% renewable electricity sector by 2030.

 

Impacts of climate change
In future, the electricity system will have to respond to changing climate patterns as well, becoming resilient to climate risks over time.

The National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research predicts winds will increase in the South Island and decrease in the far north in coming decades.

Inflows to the biggest hydro lakes will get wetter (more rain in their headwaters), and their seasonality will change due to changes in the amount of snow in these catchments.

Our modelling shows the electricity system can adapt to those changing conditions. One good news story (unless you’re a skier) is that warmer temperatures will mean less snow storage at lower elevations, and therefore higher lake inflows in the big hydro catchments in winter, leading to a better match between times of high electricity demand and higher inflows.

 

The price is right
The modelling also shows the cost of generating electricity is not likely to increase, because the price of building new sources of renewable energy continues to fall globally.

Because the cost of building new renewables is now cheaper than non-renewables (such as coal-fired plants), investing in carbon-free electricity is increasingly compelling, and renewables are more likely to be built to meet new demand in the near term.

While New Zealand’s electricity system can enable the rapid decarbonisation of (at least) our transport and industrial heat sectors, international efforts like cleaning up Canada's electricity underline the need for certainty so the electricity industry can start building to meet demand everywhere.

Bipartisan cooperation at government level will be important to encourage significant investment in generation and transmission projects with long lead times and life expectancies, as analyses of climate policy and grid implications underscore in comparable markets.

Infrastructure and markets are needed to support demand response uptake, as well as certainty around the Tiwai exit in 2024 and whether pumped storage is likely to be built.

Our electricity system can support the rapid decarbonisation needed if New Zealand is to do its fair share globally to tackle climate change.

But sound planning, firm decisions and a supportive and relatively stable regulatory framework are all required before shovels can hit the ground.

 

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