ItÂ’s lights out for old incandescents

By Knoxville News Sentinel


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Make your peace and say your goodbyes. The lights are getting ready to go out on the old-fashioned incandescent bulb.

In less than a year, federal regulations will begin phasing out the century-old technology, a process that's already begun in California, which received a waiver to launch the program one year early.

Manufacturers will no longer make the traditional 100-watt bulb, and stores eventually will sell out of current supplies. Consumers will have to choose from more efficient bulbs that use no more than 72 watts, including halogen incandescents, compact fluorescents and light-emitting diodes, or LEDs.

"These standards will help cut our nation's electric bill by over $10 billion a year and will save the equivalent electricity as 30 large power plants," said Noah Horowitz, a senior scientist with the Natural Resources Defense Council. "That translates into a whole lot less global warming pollution being emitted."

The change is part of the federal Energy Independence and Security Act that President George W. Bush signed into law in 2007 to reduce energy use and greenhouse gas emissions. The act requires new bulbs to use 25 to 30 percent less energy beginning in 2012 — starting with the 100-watt bulb. By 2014, other incandescent bulbs, including the 75-, 60- and 40-watt, also will be phased out across the country.

Some specialty bulbs, however, will continue to be available. Consumers still will be able to get smaller lights such as yellow bug lights and aquarium bulbs.

Light bulb manufacturers said they haven't received any reports of customers hoarding 100-watt bulbs yet, though that may change once supplies begin to dry up and word gets out.

Whether the local market is ready for the change remains to be seen.

When the Energy Independence and Security Act was passed, the economy was good and customers were quickly adopting compact fluorescent bulbs, or CFLs, that are more energy efficient. Those bulbs were, and remain, considerably more expensive than Thomas Edison's filament bulb, which can be bought for less than $1 apiece. And in 2009, two years after CFLs hit their peak, the Department of Energy reported sales had dropped by 25 percent, with just one in four bulbs purchased being a CFL.

When it comes to market penetration, California, New York City, Wisconsin and several other states are seeing the highest levels — with California the clear winner at about 28 percent, according to data produced by Energy Star, DOE's energy-efficiency agency. Tennessee, however, is not even on the graph.

Supporters of the technology say the newer energy-efficient bulbs last so much longer that there is a financial savings in the end. For example, while incandescents provide as much as 2,000 hours of light, compact fluorescents can provide light for six times longer. Incandescents, which create light by passing an electric current through a tiny tungsten wire filament, also waste 90 percent of the electricity they use as heat instead of light. Fluorescents, by comparison, apply an electrical current to different types of phosphers to produce light and produce less heat.

The United States isn't plowing new ground with the legislation. Australia was the first to begin phasing out incandescents beginning in 2009, followed by the European Union, the Philippines and Argentina, said Michael Petras, president of GE Lighting. Mexico and Brazil are expected to follow the United States.

Bulb manufacturers here have been retooling their processes to make room for CFLs, but customers haven't yet jumped on the bandwagon, said Ben Taube, executive director of the Southeastern Energy Efficiency Alliance in Atlanta.

"On the production side, manufacturers have been prepared and are ready for the lighting transformation," he said. "On the consumer side, I think it's one of those areas where it's been an ease into education. People react to changes in markets in both positive and negative ways. You get used to the bulb that you like, and that's what you want to have."

Nick Reynoza, manager at Royal Lighting, a Los Angeles designer lighting retailer, said it's a shame the transition comes at a time when alternatives are so much more expensive.

"It's not really an option — you have this or you don't get anything," he said. "The options are more expensive. Four incandescents are $1, the halogens are $5.99 and the LEDs are like $20."

But for the rest of the country, price shouldn't be an issue by the time the deadline rolls around, Taube said.

"The price will drive itself down to be comparable with what we've experienced in the past with traditional incandescent bulbs," he said. "I think we're going to hit price points that are not shocking at all."

Still, although organizations like the Southeastern Alliance for Clean Energy and other conservation groups back the change and the lighting industry has invested heavily in new technology, not everyone supports the law. Rep. Joe Barton, R-Texas, for example, reintroduced legislation this year to repeal the law.

"People don't want Congress dictating what light fixtures they can use," Barton said on his website. "Traditional incandescent bulbs are cheap and reliable."

Adam Gottlieb, spokesman for the California Energy Commission, acknowledged that the change has resulted in a "great deal of hue and cry" on blogs as well.

Recent postings have included the titles "More dim bulbs: California banning 100-watt incandescent light bulbs" and "More evidence that California is nuts."

Gottlieb, however, said it was not a ban and that consumers can still buy whatever bulbs they want as long as they meet the new standards.

"After 130 years Tom Edison's old-fashioned light bulb is getting a 20th century makeover," he said. "The simple truth is consumers will save money."

But fans of the traditional bulb say they provide a softer, more natural light and turn on more quickly. In addition, the difference in CFL technology can create some problems, like cause them to burn less brightly and shorter than advertised, depending on the location, according to the Lighting Research Center, which studies lighting from its home at Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute in New York. The organization advises buying CFLs with the Energy Star label and keeping receipts for CFL purchases.

GE Lighting's Petras said the industry is aware of the shortcomings and is working to refine the technology.

"We've got compact fluorescents that look like incandescents," he said from the company's headquarters in Cleveland, Ohio. "We have a product coming out this spring that's a hybrid of compact fluorescent and halogen that will provide energy savings and a better startup time."

At Stokes Electric and Lighting, a Knoxville company with locations in Pigeon Forge and Crossville, Tenn., preparations already are under way for the switch.

Bob Stokes, a branch manager for the company, said the process to alert consumers to the changeover has begun. The company, which has an electrical supply store on McCalla Avenue and a retail lighting center on Papermill Drive, is holding workshops on the new bulbs and regulations.

"I think it's going to be huge," Stokes said. "We're still selling both products and we're trying to educate the public."

Stokes said the changes will affect all lighting, whether for a small utility room or a large stadium. Although newer, energy-efficient bulbs are more expensive than their traditional incandescent counterpart, Stokes believes they will come down in price as the technology improves and they go mainstream.

And while pricey, Stokes said consumers will notice a savings difference in their energy bills.

Stokes Electric and Lighting sales vice president Mike Lakin said he believes CFLs are simply a stepping stone to more efficient, better quality lighting in LEDs.

Government and business already is investing in LEDs, Lakin said, and "the consumer side of it is coming more and more.... It's more of a cleaner light, it's closer to the incandescent."

Meanwhile, utilities are starting the process of educating customers about the biggest light bulb change-out in this nation's history.

"We are in the process of learning about this federal legislation and how it will impact our customers," said Grace McNeilly, KUB spokeswoman. "But we always encourage our customers to purchase products that use less energy."

Except for Californians, said Taube, most people probably don't even know the change is coming — but when it does he doesn't envision any sort of revolution at the local Walmart or home supply store.

"They'll just realize they're not there anymore, and they'll move on," Taube said.

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Fish boom prompts energy conglomerate to spend $14.5M to bury subsea cables

Maritime Link Cable Burial safeguards 200-kV subsea cables in the Cabot Strait as Emera and Nova Scotia Power trench lines to mitigate bottom trawling risks from a redfish boom, ensuring Muskrat Falls hydro delivery.

 

Key Points

Trenching Cabot Strait subsea power cables to prevent redfish-driven bottom trawling and ensure Muskrat Falls power.

✅ $14.492M spent trenching 59 km at 400 m depth

✅ Protects 200-kV, 170-km subsea interconnects from trawls

✅ Driven by Gulf redfish boom; DFO and UARB consultations

 

The parent company of Nova Scotia Power disclosed this week to the Utility and Review Board, amid Site C dam watchdog attention to major hydro projects, that it spent almost $14,492,000 this summer to bury its Maritime Links cables lying on the floor of the Cabot Strait between Newfoundland and Cape Breton.

It's a fish story no one saw coming, at least not Halifax-based energy conglomerate Emera.

The parent company of Nova Scotia Power disclosed this week to the Utility and Review Board that it spent almost $14,492,000 this summer to bury its Maritime Link cables lying on the floor of the Cabot Strait between Newfoundland and Cape Breton.

The cables were protected because an unprecedented explosion in the redfish population in the Gulf of St Lawrence is about to trigger a corresponding boom in bottom trawling in the area.

Also known as ocean perch, redfish were not on anyone's radar when the $1.5-billion Maritime Link was designed and built to carry Muskrat Falls hydroelectricity from Newfoundland to Nova Scotia.

The two 200-kilovolt electrical submarine cables spanning the Cabot Strait are the longest in North America, compared with projects like the New England Clean Power Link planned further south. They are each 170 kilometres long and weigh 5,500 tonnes.

Nova Scotia Power customers are paying for the Maritime Link in return for a minimum of 20 per cent of the electricity generated by Muskrat Falls over 35 years.

The electricity is supposed to start sending first electricity through the Maritime Link in mid-2020.

First time cost disclosed
In August, the company buried 59 kilometres of subsea cables one metre below the bottom at depths of 400 metres.

"These cables had not been previously trenched due to the absence of fishing activities at those depths when the cables were originally installed," spokesperson Jeff Myrick wrote in an email to CBC News in October.

Ratepayers will get the bill next year, as utilities also face risks like copper theft that can drive costs in the region. Until now, the company had declined to release costs relating to protecting the Maritime Link.

The bill will be presented to regulators, a process that has affected projects such as a Manitoba Hydro line to Minnesota, when the company applies to recover Maritime Link costs from Nova Scotia Power ratepayers in 2020.

Myrick said the company was acting after consultation with the Department of Fisheries and Oceans.

Unexpected consequences
After years of overfishing in the 1980s and early 1990s, redfish quotas were slashed and a moratorium imposed on some redfish.

Confusingly, there are actually two redfish species in the Gulf of St. Lawrence.

But very strong recent year classes, that have coincided with warming waters in the gulf, as utilities adapt to climate change considerations grow, have produced redfish in massive numbers.

After years of overfishing, the redfish population is now booming in the Gulf of St. Lawrence. (Submitted by Marine Institute)
There is now believed to be three-million tonnes of redfish in the Gulf of St Lawrence.

The Department of Fisheries and Oceans is expected to increase quotas in the coming years and the fishing industry is gearing up in a big way.

Earlier this month, Scotia Harvest announced it will begin construction of a new $14-million fish plant in Digby next spring in part to process increased redfish catches.

 

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Maritime Link almost a reality, as first power cable reaches Nova Scotia

Maritime Link Subsea Cable enables HVDC grid interconnection across the Cabot Strait, linking Nova Scotia with Newfoundland and Labrador to import Muskrat Falls hydroelectric power and expand renewable energy integration and reliability.

 

Key Points

A 170-km HVDC subsea link connecting Nova Scotia and Newfoundland and Labrador for Muskrat Falls power and renewables

✅ 170-km HVDC subsea route across Cabot Strait

✅ Connects Nova Scotia and Newfoundland and Labrador grids

✅ Enables Muskrat Falls hydro and renewable energy trade

 

The longest sub-sea electricity cable in North America now connects Nova Scotia and Newfoundland and Labrador, according to the company behind the $1.7-billion Maritime Link project.  

The first of the project's two high-voltage power transmission cables was anchored at Point Aconi, N.S., on Sunday. 

The 170-kilometre long cable across the Cabot Strait will connect the power grids in the two provinces. The link will allow power to flow between the two provinces, as demonstrated by its first electricity transfer milestone, and bring to Nova Scotia electricity generated by the massive Muskrat Falls hydroelectric project in Labrador. 

Ultimately, the Maritime Link will help Nova Scotia reach the renewable energy goals set out by the federal government, said Rick Janega, the president and CEO of Emera Newfoundland and Labrador, whose subsidiary owns the Maritime Link.

"If not for the Maritime Link then really the province would not have the ability to meet those requirements because we're pretty much tapped out of all the hydro in province and all the wind generation without creating new interconnections like the Maritime Link," said Janega. 

Not everyone wanted the link 

Fishermen in Cape Breton had objected to the Maritime Link. They were concerned about how the undersea cable might affect fish in the area. 

The laying of the cable and other construction closed a three-kilometre long and 600-metre wide swath of ocean bottom to fishermen for the entire 2017 lobster season.  

But the company came to an agreement to compensate a group of 60 Cape Breton lobster and crab fishermen affected by the project this season. The terms of the compensation deal were not released. 

 

Long cable, big job

The transmission cable runs northwest of the Marine Atlantic ferry route between North Sydney, N.S., and Port aux Basques, N.L. 

Installation of the second cable is set to begin in June, a major step comparable to BC Hydro's Site C transmission milestone achieved recently. The entire link should be completed by late 2017 and should go into full service by January 2018.

"We're quite confident as soon as the Maritime Link is in service there will be energy transactions between Nova Scotia Power and Newfoundland Hydro. Both utilities have already identified opportunities to save money and exchange energy between the two provinces," said Janega.

That's two years before power is expected to flow from the Muskrat Falls hydro project. The Labrador-based power generating facility has been hampered by delays.

Those kinds of transmission project delays are expected for such a large project, said Janega, and won't stop the Maritime Link from being used. 

"With the Maritime Link going in service this year providing Nova Scotia the opportunity that it needs to be able to reach carbon reductions and to adapt to climate change and to increase renewable energy content and we're very pleased to be at this state today," said Janega.

 

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Explainer: Why nuclear-powered France faces power outage risks

France Nuclear Power Outages threaten the grid as EDF reactors undergo stress corrosion inspections, maintenance delays, and staff shortages, driving electricity imports, peak-demand curtailment plans, and potential rolling blackouts during a cold snap across Europe.

 

Key Points

EDF maintenance and stress corrosion cut reactor output, forcing imports and blackouts as cold weather lifts demand.

✅ EDF inspects stress corrosion cracks in reactor piping

✅ Maintenance backlogs and skilled labor shortages slow repairs

✅ Government plans demand cuts, imports, and rolling blackouts

 

France is bracing for possible power outages in the coming days as falling temperatures push up demand while state-controlled nuclear group EDF struggles to bring more production on line.


WHY CAN'T FRANCE MEET DEMAND?
France is one of the most nuclear-powered countries in the world, with a significant role of nuclear power in its energy mix, typically producing over 70% of its electricity with its fleet of 56 reactors and providing about 15% of Europe's total power through exports.

However, EDF (EDF.PA) has had to take a record number of its ageing reactors offline for maintenance this year just as Europe is struggling to cope with cuts in Russian natural gas supplies used for generating electricity, with electricity prices surging across the continent this year.

That has left France's nuclear output at a 30-year low, and mirrors how Europe is losing nuclear power more broadly, forcing France to import electricity and prepare plans for possible blackouts as a cold snap fuels demand for heating.


WHAT ARE EDF'S MAINTENANCE PROBLEMS?
While EDF normally has a number of its reactors offline for maintenance, it has had far more than usual this year due to what is known as stress corrosion on pipes in some reactors, and during heatwaves river temperature limits have constrained output further.

At the request of France's nuclear safety watchdog, EDF is in the process of inspecting and making repairs across its fleet since detecting cracks in the welding connecting pipes in one reactor at the end of last year.

Years of under-investment in the nuclear sector mean that there is precious little spare capacity to meet demand while reactors are offline for maintenance, and environmental constraints such as limits on energy output during high river temperatures reduce flexibility.

France also lacks specialised welders and other workers in sufficient numbers to be able to make repairs fast enough to get reactors back online.

 

WHAT IS BEING DONE?
In the very short term, after a summer when power markets hit records as plants buckled in heat, there is little that can be done to get more reactors online faster, leaving the government to plan for voluntary cuts at peak demand periods and limited forced blackouts.

In the very short term, there is little that can be done to get more reactors online faster, leaving the government to plan for voluntary cuts at peak demand periods and limited forced blackouts.

Meanwhile, EDF and others in the French nuclear industry are on a recruitment drive for the next generation of welders, pipe-fitters and boiler makers, going so far as to set up a new school to train them.

President Emmanuel Macron wants a new push in nuclear energy, even as a nuclear power dispute with Germany persists, and has committed to building six new reactors at a cost his government estimates at nearly 52 billion euros ($55 billion).

As a first step, the government is in the process of buying out EDF's minority shareholders and fully nationalising the debt-laden group, which it says is necessary to make the long-term investments in new reactors.
 

 

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Typical Ontario electricity bill set to increase nearly 2% as fixed pricing ends

Ontario Electricity Rates update: OEB sets time-of-use and tiered pricing for residential customers, with kWh charges for peak, mid-peak, and off-peak periods reflecting COVID-19 impacts on demand, supply costs, and pricing.

 

Key Points

Ontario Electricity Rates are OEB-set time-of-use and tiered prices that set per-kWh costs for residential customers.

✅ Time-of-use: 21.7 peak, 15.0 mid-peak, 10.5 off-peak cents/kWh

✅ Tiered: 12.6 cents/kWh up to 1000 kWh, then 14.6 cents/kWh

✅ Average 700 kWh home pays about $2.24 more per month

 

Energy bills for the typical Ontario home are going up by about two per cent with fixed pricing coming to an end on Nov. 1, the Ontario Energy Board says. 

The province's electricity regulator has released new time-of-use pricing and says the rate for the average residential customer using 700 kWh per month will increase by about $2.24.

The change comes as Ontario stretches into its eight month of the COVID-19 pandemic with new case counts reaching levels higher than ever seen before.

Time-of-use pricing had been scrapped for residential bills for much for the pandemic with a single fixed COVID-19 hydro rate set for all hours of the day. The move, which came into effect June 1, was meant "to support families, small business and farms while Ontario plans for the safe and gradual reopening of the province," the OEB said at the time.

Ontario later set the off-peak price until February 7 around the clock to provide additional relief.

Fixed pricing meant customers' bills reflected how much power they used, rather than when they used it. Customers were charged 12.8 cents/kWh under the COVID-19 recovery rate no matter their time of use.

Beginning November, the province says customers can choose between time-of-use and tiered pricing options. Rates for time-of-use plans will be 21.7 cents/kWh during peak hours, 15 cents/kWh for mid-peak use and 10.5 cents/kWh for off-peak use. 

Customers choosing tiered pricing will pay 12.6 cents/kWh for the first 1000 kWh each month and then 14.6 cents/kWh for any power used beyond that.

The energy board says the increase in pricing reflects "a combination of factors, including those associated with the COVID-19 pandemic, that have affected demand, supply costs and prices in the summer and fall of 2020."

Asked for his reaction to the move Tuesday, Premier Doug Ford said, "I hate it," adding the province inherited an energy "mess" from the previous Liberal government and are "chipping away at it."

 

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Transmission constraints impede incremental Quebec-to-US power deliveries

Hydro-Québec Northeast Clean Energy Transmission delivers surplus hydropower via HVDC interconnections to New York and New England, leveraging long-term contracts and projects like CHPE and NECEC to support carbon-free goals, GHG cuts, and grid reliability.

 

Key Points

An initiative to expand HVDC links for Quebec hydropower exports, aiding New York and New England decarbonization.

✅ 37,000 MW hydro capacity enables firm, low-carbon exports

✅ Targets NY and NE via CHPE, NECEC, and upgraded interfaces

✅ Backed by long-term PPAs to reduce merchant transmission risk

 

With roughly 37,000 MW of installed hydro power capacity, Quebec has ample spare capacity that it would like to deliver into Northeastern US markets where ambitious clean energy goals have been announced, but expanding transmission infrastructure is challenging.

Register Now New York recently announced a goal of receiving 100% carbon-free energy by 2040 and the New England states all have ambitious greenhouse gas reduction goals, including a Massachusetts law requiring GHG emissions be 80% below 1990 levels by 2050.

The province-owned company, Hydro Quebec, supplies power to the provinces of Quebec, Ontario and New Brunswick in particular, as well as sending electricity directly into New York and New England. The power transmission interconnections between New York and New England have reached capacity and in order to increase export volumes into the US, "we need to build more transmission infrastructure," Gary Sutherland, relationship manager in business development, recently said during a presentation to reporters in Montreal.

 

TRANSMISSION OPTIONS

Hydro Quebec is working with US transmission developers, electric distribution companies, independent system operators and state government agencies to expand that transmission capacity in order to delivery more power from its hydro system to the US, as the province has closed the door on nuclear power and continues to prioritize hydropower, Sutherland said.

The company is looking to sign long-term power supply contracts that could help alleviate some of the investment risk associated with these large infrastructure projects.

"It`s interesting to recall that in the 1980s, two decade-long contracts paved the way for construction of Phase II of the multi-terminal direct-current system (MTDCS), a cross-border line that delivers up to 2,000 MW from northern Quebec to New England," Hydro Quebec spokeswoman Lynn St-Laurent said in an email.

Long-term prices have been persistently low since 2012, following the shale gas boom and the economic decline in 2008-2009, St-Laurent said. "As such, investment risks are too high for merchant transmission projects," she said.

Northeast power market fundamentals "remain strong for long-term contracts," on transmission projects or equipment upgrades that can deliver clean power from Quebec and "help our neighbors reach their ambitious clean energy goals," St-Laurent said.

 

NEW ENGLAND

In March 2017 an HQ proposal was selected by Massachusetts regulators to supply 9.45 TWh of firm energy to be delivered for 20 years. HQ`s proposal consisted of hydro power supply and possible transmission scenarios developed in conjunction with US partners.

The two leading options include a route through New Hampshire called Northern Pass and New England Clean Energy Connect through Maine.

The New Hampshire Site Evaluation Committee in March 2018 voted unanimously to deny approval of the $1.6 billion Northern Pass Transmission project, which is a joint venture between HQ and Eversource Energy`s transmission business. Eversource has been fighting the decision, with the New Hampshire Supreme Court accepting the company`s appeal of the NHSEC decision in October.

Briefs are being filed and oral arguments are likely to begin late spring or early summer, spokesman William Hinkle said in an email Tuesday.

After the Northern Pass permitting delay, Massachusetts chose the New England Clean Energy Connect project, which is a projected 1,200 MW transmission line, with 1,090 MW contracted to Massachusetts, leaving 110 MW for use on a merchant basis, according to St-Laurent.

NECEC is a joint venture between HQ and Central Maine Power, which is a subsidiary of Avangrid, a company affiliated with Spain`s Iberdrola. The NECEC project has received opposition from some environmental groups and still needs several state and federal permits.

 

NEW YORK

"The 5% of New York`s load that we furnish year in and year out ... is mostly going into the north of the state, it`s not coming down here," Sutherland said during a discussion at Pace University in New York City in 2017.

One potential project moving through the permitting phase, is the $2.2 billion, 1,000-MW Champlain Hudson Power Express transmission line being pursued by Transmission Developers -- a Blackstone portfolio company -- that would transport power from Quebec to Queens, New York.

Under New York`s proposed Climate Leadership Act which calls for the 100% carbon-free energy goal, renewable generation eligibility would be determined by the Public Service Commission. The PSC did not respond to a question about whether hydro power from Quebec is being considered as a potential option for meeting the state`s clean energy goal.

 

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Tackling climate change with machine learning: Covid-19 and the energy transition

Covid-19 Energy Transition and Machine Learning reshape climate change policy, electricity planning, and grid operations, from demand forecasting and decarbonization strategies in Europe to scalable electrification modeling and renewable integration across Africa.

 

Key Points

How the pandemic reshapes energy policy and how ML improves planning, demand forecasts, and grid reliability in Africa.

✅ Pandemic-driven demand shifts strain grid operations and markets

✅ Policy momentum risks rollback; favor future-oriented decarbonization

✅ ML boosts demand prediction, electrification, and grid reliability in Africa

 

The impact of Covid-19 on the energy system was discussed in an online climate change workshop that also considered how machine learning can help electricity planning in Africa.

This year’s International Conference on Learning Representations event included a workshop held by the Climate Change AI group of academics and artificial intelligence industry representatives, which considered how machine learning can help tackle climate change and highlighted advances by European electricity prediction specialists working in this field.

Bjarne Steffen, senior researcher at the energy politics group at ETH Zürich, shared his insights at the workshop on how Covid-19 and the accompanying economic crisis are affecting recently introduced ‘green’ policies. “The crisis hit at a time when energy policies were experiencing increasing momentum towards climate action, especially in Europe, and in proposals to invest in smarter electricity infrastructure for long-term resilience,” said Steffen, who added the coronavirus pandemic has cast into doubt the implementation of such progressive policies.

The academic said there was a risk of overreacting to the public health crisis, as far as progress towards climate change goals was concerned.

 

Lobbying

“Many interest groups from carbon-intensive industries are pushing to remove the emissions trading system and other green policies,” said Steffen. “In cases where those policies are having a serious impact on carbon-emitting industries, governments should offer temporary waivers during this temporary crisis, instead of overhauling the regulatory structure.”

However, the ETH Zürich researcher said any temptation to impose environmental conditions to bail-outs for carbon-intensive industries should be resisted. “While it is tempting to push a green agenda in the relief packages, tying short-term environmental conditions to bail-outs is impractical, given the uncertainty in how long this crisis will last,” he said. “It is better to include provisions that will give more control over future decisions to decarbonize industries, such as the government taking equity shares in companies.”

Steffen shared with pv magazine readers an article published in Joule which can be accessed here, and which articulates his arguments about how Covid-19 could affect the energy transition.

 

Covid-19 in the U.K.

The electricity system in the U.K. is also being affected by Covid-19, even as the U.S. electric grid grapples with climate risks, according to Jack Kelly, founder of London-based, not-for-profit, greenhouse gas emission reduction research laboratory Open Climate Fix.

“The crisis has reduced overall electricity use in the U.K.,” said Kelly. “Residential use has increased but this has not offset reductions in commercial and industrial loads.”

Steve Wallace, a power system manager at British electricity system operator National Grid ESO recently told U.K. broadcaster the BBC electricity demand has fallen 15-20% across the U.K. The National Grid ESO blog has stated the fall-off makes managing grid functions such as voltage regulation more challenging.

Open Climate Fix’s Kelly noted even events such as a nationally-coordinated round of applause for key workers was followed by a dramatic surge in demand, stating: “On April 16, the National Grid saw a nearly 1 GW spike in electricity demand over 10 minutes after everyone finished clapping for healthcare workers and went about the rest of their evenings.”

Climate Change AI workshop panelists also discussed the impact machine learning could have on improving electricity planning in Africa. The Electricity Growth and Use in Developing Economies (e-Guide) initiative funded by fossil fuel philanthropic organization the Rockefeller Foundation aims to use data to improve the planning and operation of electricity systems in developing countries.

E-Guide members Nathan Williams, an assistant professor at the Rochester Institute of Technology (RIT) in New York state, and Simone Fobi, a PhD student at Columbia University in NYC, spoke about their work at the Climate Change AI workshop, which closed on Thursday. Williams emphasized the importance of demand prediction, saying: “Uncertainty around current and future electricity consumption leads to inefficient planning. The weak link for energy planning tools is the poor quality of demand data.”

Fobi said: “We are trying to use machine learning to make use of lower-quality data and still be able to make strong predictions.”

The market maturity of individual solar home systems and PV mini-grids in Africa mean more complex electrification plan modeling is required, similar to integrating AI data centers into Canada's grids at scale.

 

Modeling

“When we are doing [electricity] access planning, we are trying to figure out where the demand will be and how much demand will exist so we can propose the right technology,” added Fobi. “This makes demand estimation crucial to efficient planning.”

Unlike many traditional modeling approaches, machine learning is scalable and transferable. Rochester’s Williams has been using data from nations such as Kenya, which are more advanced in their electrification efforts, to train machine learning models to make predictions to guide electrification efforts in countries which are not as far down the track.

Williams also discussed work being undertaken by e-Guide members at the Colorado School of Mines, which uses nighttime satellite imagery and machine learning to assess the reliability of grid infrastructure in India, where new algorithms to prevent ransomware-induced blackouts are also advancing.

 

Rural power

Another e-Guide project, led by Jay Taneja at the University of Massachusetts, Amherst – and co-funded by the Energy and Economic Growth program on development spending based at Berkeley – uses satellite imagery to identify productive uses of electricity in rural areas by detecting pollution signals from diesel irrigation pumps.

Though good quality data is often not readily available for Africa, Williams added, it does exist.

“We have spent years developing trusting relationships with utilities,” said the RIT academic. “Once our partners realize the value proposition we can offer, they are enthusiastic about sharing their data … We can’t do machine learning without high-quality data and this requires that organizations can effectively collect, organize, store and work with data. Data can transform the electricity sector, as shown by Canadian projects to use AI for energy savings, but capacity building is crucial.”

 

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