Solar firms team up on recycling to beat regulators

By Reuters


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Some of the world's top solar power companies have teamed up to launch the first large-scale recycling system for solar panels in Europe, to stay one step ahead of regulators by showing an industry-led scheme can work.

The goal is to set up a voluntary take-back system for solar modules by the end of 2008, the group handling the project said.

"We will be the first in Europe to establish such a system. And I could well imagine that it will become a model for other countries," said PV Cycle President Karsten Wambach, who also heads SolarWorld's Solar Material division.

The new PV Cycle association embraces about 17 solar companies including Q-Cells, SolarWorld, Sharp, Kyocera and First Solar, as well as German solar industry association BSW and the European Photovoltaic Industry Association (EPIA).

Recycling amounts are relatively low compared with annual installed capacity as the solar boom has taken off in the past four years while modules last up to 25. Mostly, only flawed or damaged modules have been recycled.

But PV Cycle expects the amount of solar module waste to surge to 223 megawatt peak (MWp), or roughly 16,000 tonnes, by 2015 in Europe from 31 MWp, or some 2,000 tonnes, last year.

EPIA and Greenpeace data show 0.05 percent of global electricity consumption derived from photovoltaic in 2006 and - based on continued political commitment at a global level - the share is expected to soar to about 10 percent by 2030.

By acting now, the industry association hopes to avoid seeing unfavorable, costly European regulation imposed later.

"It's probably better to do it with a scheme that is specifically designed for photovoltaic than if you have to conform to the European Union directive for electronic waste, for example," said Erik Alsema, senior photovoltaic researcher at Utrecht University in the Netherlands.

Under EU rules, producers have to take back and recycle electronic equipment free of charge.

Experts say the cost of producing a solar module from recycled ingredients rather than primary material is about the same.

But using recycled solar wafers takes up only a third of the energy needed to produce a module from first-hand material as purifying silicon to solar-grade level is energy intensive.

And as the industry is struggling with a silicon supply bottleneck, recycling provides another source.

"If the industry can show that the scheme is cost effective and environmentally good, then the EU doesn't have to lay down regulations," Alsema said.

There are only a few module recycling plants worldwide, with two in Germany, the world's largest solar market.

One of the German plants is run by a unit of SolarWorld.

U.S. thin film company First Solar operates the other, using cadmium telluride rather than silicon in its modules, protecting it from rising costs that hurt other solar equipment makers.

But as cadmium is highly toxic and may cause kidney damage and lung cancer, it has set up a recycling system on its own.

"The recycling process is very well controlled and does not pose a risk to employees or the environment," First Solar said.

For every module sold, it sets aside an allowance to meet upcoming costs for recycling, stored in a restricted investment account controlled by an insurance company, it said.

Such a financing model could be attractive for the whole industry, PV Cycle's Wambach said.

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Texas lawmakers propose electricity market bailout after winter storm

Texas Electricity Market Bailout proposes securitization bonds and ERCOT-backed fees after Winter Storm Uri, spreading costs via ratepayer charges on power bills to stabilize generators, co-ops, and retailers and avert bankruptcies and investor flight.

 

Key Points

State plan to securitize storm debts via ERCOT fees, adding bill charges to stabilize Texas power firms.

✅ Securitization bonds finance unpaid ancillary services and energy costs

✅ ERCOT fee spreads Winter Storm Uri debts across ratepayers statewide

✅ Aims to prevent bankruptcies, preserve grid reliability, reassure investors

 

An approximately $2.5 billion plan to bail out Texas’ distressed electricity market from the financial crisis caused by Winter Storm Uri in February has been approved by the Texas House.

The legislation would impose a fee — likely for the next decade or longer — on electricity companies, which would then get passed on to residential and business customers in their power bills, even as some utilities waived certain fees earlier in the crisis.

House lawmakers sent House Bill 4492 to the Senate on Thursday after a 129-15 vote. A similar bill is advancing in the Senate.

Some of the state’s electricity providers and generators are financially underwater in the aftermath of the February power outages, which left millions without power and killed more than 100 people. Electricity companies had to buy whatever power was available at the maximum rate allowed by Texas regulations — $9,000 per megawatt hour — during the week of the storm (the average price for power in 2020 was $22 per megawatt hour). Natural gas fuel prices also spiked more than 700% during the storm.

Several companies are nearing default on their bills to the Electric Reliability Council of Texas, which manages the Texas power grid that covers most of the state and facilitates financial transactions in it.

Rural electric cooperatives were especially hard hit; Brazos Electric Power Cooperative, which supplies electricity to 1.5 million customers, filed for bankruptcy citing a $1.8 billion debt to ERCOT.

State Rep. Chris Paddie, R-Marshall, the bill’s author, said a second bailout bill will be necessary during the current legislative session for severely distressed electric cooperatives.

“This is a financial crisis, and it’s a big one,” James Schaefer, a senior managing director at Guggenheim Partners, an investment bank, told lawmakers at a House State Affairs Committee hearing in early April. He warned that more bankruptcies would cause higher costs to customers and hurt the state’s image in the eyes of investors.

“You’ve got to free the system,” Schaefer said. “It’s horrible that a bunch of folks have to pay, but it’s a system-wide failure. If you let a bunch of folks crash, it’s not a good look for your state.”

If approved by the Senate and Gov. Greg Abbott, a newly-created Texas Electric Securitization Corp. would use the money raised from the fees for bonds to help pay the companies’ debts, including costs for ancillary services, a financial product that helps ensure power is continuously generated and improve electricity reliability across the grid.

Paddie told his colleagues Wednesday that he could not yet estimate how long the new fee would be imposed, but during committee hearings lawmakers estimated it’s likely to be at least a decade. Several other bills to spread out the costs of the winter storm and consider market reforms are also moving through the Legislature.

ERCOT’s independent market monitor recommended in March that energy sold during that period be repriced at a lower rate, which would have allowed ERCOT to claw back about $4.2 billion in payments to power generators, but the Public Utility Commission declined to do so, even as a court ruling on plant obligations in emergencies drew scrutiny among market participants.

Instead, lawmakers are pushing for bailouts that several energy experts have said is needed, both to ensure distressed companies don’t pass enormous costs on to their customers and to prevent electricity investors and companies from leaving the state if it’s viewed as too risky to continue doing business.

Becky Klein, an energy consultant in Austin and former chair of the Public Utility Commission who played a key role in de-regulating Texas’ electricity market two decades ago, said during a retail electricity panel hosted by Integrate that legislation is necessary to provide “some kind of backstop during a crazy market crisis like this to show the financial market that we’re willing to provide some relief.”

Still, some lawmakers are concerned with how they will win public support, including potential voter-approved funding measures, for bills to bail out the state’s electricity market.

“I have to go back to Laredo and say, ‘I know you didn’t have electricity for several days, but now I’m going to make you pay a little more for the next 20 years,’” state Rep. Richard Peña Raymond, D-Laredo, said during an early April discussion on the plan in the House State Affairs Committee. He said he voted for the bill because it’s in the best interest of the state.

Paddie, during the same committee hearing, acknowledged that “none of us want to increase fees or taxes.” However, he said, “We have to deal with the reality set before us.”

 

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As peak wildfire season nears, SDG&E completes work on microgrid in Ramona

SDG&E Ramona Microgrid delivers renewable energy and battery storage for wildfire mitigation, grid resilience, and PSPS support, powering the Cal Fire Air Attack Base with a 500 kW, 2,000 kWh lithium-ion system during outages.

 

Key Points

A renewable, battery-backed microgrid powering Ramona's Air Attack Base, boosting wildfire response and PSPS resilience.

✅ 500 kW, 2,000 kWh lithium-ion storage replaces diesel

✅ Keeps Cal Fire and USFS aircraft operations powered

✅ Supports PSPS continuity and rural water reliability

 

It figures to be another dry year — with the potential to spark wildfires in the region. But San Diego Gas & Electric just completed a renewable energy upgrade to a microgrid in Ramona that will help firefighters and reduce the effects of power shutoffs to backcountry residents.

The microgrid will provide backup power to the Ramona Air Attack Base, helping keep the lights on during outages, home to Cal Fire and the U.S. Forest Service's fleet of aircrafts that can quickly douse fires before they get out of hand.

"It gives us peace of mind to have backup power for a critical facility like the Ramona Air Attack Base, especially given the fact that fire season in California has become year-round," Cal Fire/San Diego County Fire Chief Tony Mecham said in a statement.

The air attack base serves as a hub for fixed-wing aircraft assigned to put out fires. Cal Fire staffs the base throughout the year with one two airtankers and one tactical aircraft. The base also houses the Forest Service's Bell 205 A++ helicopter and crew to protect the Cleveland National Forest. Aircraft for both CalFire and the Forest Service can also be mobilized to help fight fires throughout the state.

This summer, the Ramona microgrid won't have to rely on diesel generation. Instead, the facility next to the town's airport will be powered by a 500 kilowatt and 2,000 kilowatt-hour lithium-ion battery storage system that won't generate any greenhouse gas emissions.

"What's great about it, besides that it's a renewable resource, is that it's a permanent installation," said Jonathan Woldemariam, SDG&E's director of wildfire mitigation and vegetation management. "In other words, we don't have to roll a portable generator out there. It's something that can be leveraged right there because it's already installed and ready to go."

Microgrids have taken on a larger profile across the state because they can operate independently of the larger electric grid, where repairing California's grid is an ongoing challenge, thus allowing small areas or communities to keep the power flowing for hours at a time during emergencies.

That can be crucial in wildfire-prone areas affected by Public Safety Power Shutoffs, or PSPS, the practice in which investor-owned utilities in California de-energize electrical power lines in a defined area when conditions are dry and windy in order to reduce the risk of a power line falling and igniting a wildfire, while power grid upgrades move forward statewide.

Rural and backcountry communities are particularly hard hit when the power is pre-emptively cut off because many homes rely on water from wells powered by electricity for their homes, horses and livestock.

In addition to Ramona, SDG&E has established microgrids in three other areas in High Fire Threat Districts:

The microgrids in Butterfield Ranch and Shelter Valley run on diesel power but the utility plans to complete solar and battery storage systems for each locale by the end of next year, as other regions develop new microgrid rules to guide deployment.

SDG&E has a fifth microgrid in operation — in Borrego Springs, which in 2013 became the first utility-scale microgrid in the country. It provides grid resiliency to the roughly 2,700 residents of the desert town and serves as a model for integrated microgrid projects elsewhere in delivering local electricity. While the Borrego Springs microgrid is not located in a High Fire Threat District, "when and if any power is turned off, especially the power transmission feed that goes to Borrego, we can support the customers using the microgrid out there," Woldemariam said.

Microgrid costs can be higher than conventional energy systems, even as projected energy storage revenue grows over the next decade, and the costs of the SDG&E projects are passed on to ratepayers. As per California Public Utilities Commission rules, the financial details for each of microgrid are kept confidential for at least three years.

SDG&E's microgrids are part of the utility's larger plan to reduce wildfire risk that SDG&E files with the utilities commission. In its wildfire plan for 2020 through 2022, SDG&E expected to spend $1.89 billion on mitigation measures.

 

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California Welcomes 70 Volvo VNR Electric Trucks

Switch-On Project Electric Trucks accelerate California freight decarbonization, deploying Volvo VNR Electric rigs with high-capacity charging infrastructure, zero-emissions operations, and connected safety features to cut greenhouse gases and improve urban air quality.

 

Key Points

A California program deploying Volvo VNR Electric trucks and charging to decarbonize freight and improve air quality.

✅ 70 Volvo VNR Electric trucks for regional logistics

✅ Strategic high-capacity charging for heavy-duty fleets

✅ Lower TCO via fuel savings and reduced maintenance

 

In a significant step toward sustainable transportation, the Switch-On project is bringing 70 Volvo VNR Electric trucks to California. This initiative aims to bolster the state's efforts to reduce emissions and transition to greener logistics solutions. The arrival of these electric vehicles marks an important milestone in California's commitment to combating climate change and improving air quality.

The Switch-On Project: Overview and Goals

The Switch-On project is a collaborative effort designed to enhance electric truck adoption in California. It focuses on developing the necessary infrastructure and technology to support electric vehicles (EVs) in the freight and logistics sectors, building on recent nonprofit investments at California ports. The project not only seeks to increase the availability of electric trucks but also aims to demonstrate their effectiveness in real-world applications.

California has set ambitious goals for reducing greenhouse gas emissions, particularly from the transportation sector, which is one of the largest contributors to air pollution. By introducing electric trucks into freight operations, the state aims to significantly cut emissions, improve public health, and pave the way for a more sustainable future.

The Volvo VNR Electric Trucks

The Volvo VNR Electric trucks are specifically designed for regional distribution and urban transport, aligning with Volvo's broader electric lineup as the company expands offerings, making them ideal for the needs of California’s freight industry. With a range of approximately 250 miles on a single charge, these trucks can efficiently handle most regional routes. Equipped with advanced technology, including regenerative braking and connectivity features, the VNR Electric models enhance operational efficiency and safety.

These trucks not only provide a cleaner alternative to traditional diesel vehicles but also promise lower operational costs over time. With reduced fuel expenses and lower maintenance needs, and emerging vehicle-to-grid pilots that can create new value streams, businesses can benefit from significant savings while contributing to environmental sustainability.

Infrastructure Development

A crucial aspect of the Switch-On project is the development of charging infrastructure to support the new fleet of electric trucks. The project partners are working on installing high-capacity charging stations strategically located throughout California while addressing utility planning challenges that large fleets will pose to the power system. This infrastructure is essential to ensure that electric trucks can be charged efficiently, minimizing downtime and maximizing productivity.

The charging stations are designed to accommodate the specific needs of heavy-duty vehicles, and corridor models like BC's Electric Highway provide useful precedents for network design, allowing for rapid charging that aligns with operational schedules. This development not only supports the new fleet but also encourages other logistics companies to consider electric trucks as a viable option for their operations.

Benefits to California

The introduction of 70 Volvo VNR Electric trucks will have several positive impacts on California. Firstly, it will significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions from the freight sector, contributing to the state’s ambitious climate goals even as grid expansion will be needed to support widespread electrification across sectors. The transition to electric trucks is expected to improve air quality, particularly in urban areas that struggle with high pollution levels.

Moreover, the project serves as a model for other regions considering similar initiatives. By showcasing the practicality and benefits of electric trucks, California hopes to inspire widespread adoption across the nation. As the market for electric vehicles continues to grow, this project can play a pivotal role in accelerating the transition to sustainable transportation solutions.

Industry and Community Reactions

The arrival of the Volvo VNR Electric trucks has been met with enthusiasm from both industry stakeholders and community members. Logistics companies are excited about the opportunity to reduce their carbon footprints and operational costs. Meanwhile, environmental advocates applaud the project as a crucial step toward cleaner air and healthier communities.

California’s commitment to sustainable transportation has positioned it as a leader in the shift to electric vehicles amid an ongoing biofuels vs. EVs debate over the best path forward, setting an example for other states and countries.

Conclusion

The Switch-On project represents a major advancement in California's efforts to transition to electric transportation. With the deployment of 70 Volvo VNR Electric trucks, the state is not only taking a significant step toward reducing emissions but also demonstrating the feasibility of electric logistics solutions.

As infrastructure develops and more electric trucks hit the roads, California is paving the way for a greener, more sustainable future in transportation. The success of this project could have far-reaching implications, influencing policies and practices in the broader freight industry and beyond.

 

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Alberta Introduces New Electricity Rules

Alberta Rate of Last Resort streamlines electricity regulations to stabilize the default rate, curb price volatility, and protect rural communities, low-income households, and seniors while preserving competition in the province's energy market.

 

Key Points

Alberta's Rate of Last Resort sets biennial default electricity prices, curbing volatility and protecting customers.

✅ Biennial default rate to limit price spikes

✅ Focus on rural, senior, and low-income customers

✅ Encourages competitive contracts and market stability

 

The Alberta government is overhauling its electricity regulations as part of a market overhaul aimed at reducing spikes in electricity prices for consumers and businesses. The new rules, set to be introduced this spring, are intended to stabilize the default electricity rate paid by many Albertans.


Background on the Rate of Last Resort

Albertans currently have the option to sign up for competitive contracts with electricity providers. These contracts can sometimes offer lower rates than the default electricity rate, officially known as the Regulated Rate Option (RRO). However, these competitive rates can fluctuate significantly. Currently, those unable to secure these contracts or those who are on the default rate are experiencing rising electricity prices and high levels of price volatility.

To address this, the Alberta government is renaming the default rate as the Rate of Last Resort designation (RoLR) under the new framework. This aims to reduce the sense of security that some consumers might associate with the current name, which the government feels is misleading.


Key Changes Under New Regulations

The new regulations, which include proposed market changes that affect pricing, focus on:

  • Price Stabilization: Default electricity rates will be set every two years for each utility provider, providing greater predictability by enabling a consumer price cap and reducing the potential for extreme price swings.
  • Rural and Underserved Communities: The changes are intended to particularly benefit rural Albertans and those on the default rate, including low-income individuals and seniors. These groups often lack access to the competitive rates offered by some providers and have been disproportionately affected by recent price increases.
  • Promoting Economic Stability: The goal is to lower the cost of utilities for all Albertans, leading to overall lower costs of living and doing business. The government anticipates these changes will create a more attractive environment for investment and job creation.


Opposition Views

Critics argue that limiting the flexibility of prices for the default electricity rate could interfere with market dynamics and stifle market competition among providers. Some worry it could ultimately lead to higher prices in the long term. Others advocate directly subsidizing low-income households rather than introducing broad price controls.


Balancing Affordability and the Market

The Alberta government maintains that the proposed changes will strike a balance between ensuring affordable electricity for vulnerable Albertans and preserving a competitive energy market. Provincial officials emphasize that the new regulations should not deter consumers from seeking out competitive rates if they choose to.


The Path Ahead

The new electricity regulations are part of the Alberta government's broader Affordable Utilities Program, alongside electricity policy changes across the province. The legislation is expected to be introduced and debated in the provincial legislature this spring with the potential of coming into effect later in the year. Experts expect these changes will significantly impact the Alberta electricity market and ignite further discussion about how best to manage rising utility costs for consumers and businesses.

 

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Ontario takes constitutional challenge of its global adjustment electricity fee to Supreme Court

Ontario Global Adjustment Supreme Court Appeal spotlights a constitutional challenge to Ontario's electricity charge, pitting National Steel Car against the IESO over regulatory charge vs tax, procurement policy, and renewable energy feed-in tariff contracts.

 

Key Points

An SCC leave bid on whether Ontario's global adjustment is a valid regulatory charge or an unconstitutional tax.

✅ Appeals Court revived case for full record review

✅ Dispute centers on regulatory charge vs tax classification

✅ FIT renewables contracts and procurement policies at issue

 

The Ontario government wants the Supreme Court of Canada to weigh in on a constitutional challenge being brought against a large provincial electricity charge, a case the province claims raises issues of national importance.

Ontario’s attorney general and its Independent Electricity System Operator applied for permission to appeal to the Supreme Court in January, according to the court’s website.

The province is trying to appeal a Court of Appeal decision reinstating the challenge from November that said a legal challenge by Hamilton, Ont.-based National Steel Car Ltd. should be sent back to a lower-court for a full hearing.

Court reinstates constitutional challenge to Ontario's hefty ‘global adjustment’ electricity charge
National Steel Car appealing decision in legal challenge of Ontario electricity fee it calls an unconstitutional tax
Doug Ford’s cancellation of green energy deals costs Ontario taxpayers $231 million
National Steel Car launched its legal challenge in 2017, with the maker of steel rail cars claiming the province’s global adjustment electricity charge was a tax intended to fund certain post-financial-crisis policy goals. Since it is allegedly a tax, and one not imposed by the provincial legislature, the company’s argument is the global adjustment is unconstitutional, and also in breach of a provincial law requiring a referendum for new taxes.

The global adjustment mostly bridges the gap between the province’s hourly electricity price and the price guaranteed under contracts and regulated rates with power generators. It also helps cover the cost of building new electricity infrastructure and providing conservation programs, but the fee now makes up most of the commodity portion of a household power bill in the province.

Ontario argued the global adjustment is a valid regulatory charge, and moved to have National Steel Car’s challenge thrown out. An Ontario Superior Court judge agreed, and dismissed the challenge in 2018, saying it was “plain, obvious and beyond doubt” it could not succeed. However, an appeals court judge disagreed, writing in a decision last November that the “merits should not have been determined on a pleadings motion and without the development of a full record.”

In filings made to the Supreme Court, both the IESO and Ontario’s Ministry of the Attorney General argued their proposed appeals raise “issues of national and public importance,” such as whether incorporating environmental and social policy goals in procurement could turn attempts by a public body to recover costs into an unconstitutional tax.

Most applications for leave to appeal to the Supreme Court are dismissed, but the Ontario government claims the court’s guidance is required in this case, as it could lead to questions being raised about other fees or charges, such as money raised from fishing licences.

“A failure to dispose of this claim at the pleadings stage may well result in such uncertainty that public authorities across Canada decline to incorporate the kind of environmental and social policy goals objected to in this case into the decisions they make about how to spend funds raised from regulatory charges,” the filing from the attorney general states. “Alternatively, it may induce governments not to engage in cost recovery in connection with publicly supplied goods and services, which can otherwise be sound public policy.”

The government has so far had to pay National Steel Car $250,000 in legal costs “to avoid responding to the credible claim that the Global Adjustment is an unconstitutional tax,” said David Trafford of Morse Shannon LLP, one of National Steel Car’s lawyers.

“The application for leave to appeal is the next step in this effort to avoid having to respond to the case on the merits,” Trafford added in an email.

The application for leave to appeal is the next step in this effort to avoid having to respond to the case on the merits

David Trafford of Morse Shannon, one of National Steel Car’s lawyers
 
National Steel Car has particularly taken issue with the part of the global adjustment that funded contracts for renewable energy under a “feed-in tariff” program, or FIT, which the company called “the main culprit behind the dramatic price increases for electricity.”

The FIT program has been ended, but contracts awarded under it remain in place and form part of the global adjustment. Ontario’s auditor general estimated in 2015 that electricity consumers would pay $9.2 billion more for renewable energy under the government’s guaranteed-price program, a figure that later featured in a dispute between the auditor and the electricity regulator that drew political attention.

National Steel Car said its global adjustment costs grew from $207,260 in 2008 to almost $3.4 million in 2016, reflecting how high electricity rates have pressured manufacturers, to almost $3.4 million in 2016. For 2018, there was approximately $11.2 billion in global adjustment collected, according to the IESO’s reporting.

A spokesperson for the IESO said it “is not in a position to comment” because the case is still before the courts.

Electricity prices have been an ongoing problem for both Ontario consumers and politicians, which the previous Liberal government tried to address in 2017 by, among other things, refinancing global-adjustment costs through the Fair Hydro Plan and other measures.

Since National Steel Car filed its lawsuits, though, the Liberals lost power in the province and were succeeded in 2018 by Premier Doug Ford and the Progressive Conservatives, who made changes to the previous government’s power policies, including legislation to lower electricity rates introduced early in their mandate.

The province has also pursued interprovincial power arrangements, including building on an electricity deal with Quebec as part of its broader energy strategy.

“The present government of Ontario does not agree with the former government’s electricity procurement program, which ceased awarding new contracts in 2016,” Ontario’s attorney general said in a filing. “However, Ontario submits that (the lower-court judge) was correct in holding that it does not give rise to a claim susceptible to being remedied by the courts.”

 

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UK Anticipates a 16% Decrease in Energy Bills in April

UK Energy Price Cap Cut 2024 signals relief as wholesale gas prices fall; Ofgem price cap drops per Cornwall Insight, aided by LNG supply, mild winter, despite Red Sea tensions and Ukraine conflict impacts.

 

Key Points

A forecast cut to Great Britain's Ofgem price cap as wholesale gas falls, easing typical annual household bills in 2024.

✅ Cap falls from £1,928 to £1,620 in April 2024

✅ Forecast £1,497 in July, then about £1,541 from October

✅ Drivers: lower wholesale gas, LNG supply, mild winter

 

Households in Great Britain are set to experience a significant reduction in energy costs this spring, with bills projected to drop by over £300 annually. This decrease is primarily due to a decline in wholesale gas prices, offering some respite to those grappling with the cost of living crisis.

Cornwall Insight, a well-regarded industry analyst, predicts a 16% reduction in average bills from the previous quarter, potentially reaching the lowest levels since the onset of the Ukraine conflict.

The industry’s price cap, indicative of the average annual bill for a typical household, is expected to decrease from the current £1,928, set earlier this month, to £1,620 in April – a reduction of £308 and £40 less than previously forecasted in December, as ministers consider ending the gas-electricity price link to improve market resilience.

Concerns about escalating tensions in the Red Sea, where Houthi rebels have disrupted global shipping, initially led analysts to fear an increase in wholesale oil prices and subsequent impact on household energy costs.

Contrary to these concerns, oil prices have remained relatively stable, and European gas reserves have been higher than anticipated during a mild winter, with European gas prices returning to pre-Ukraine war levels since November.

Cornwall Insight anticipates that energy prices will continue to be comparatively low through 2024. They predict a further decline to £1,497 for a typical annual bill from July, followed by a slight increase to £1,541 starting in October.

This forecast is a welcome development for Britons who have been dealing with increased expenses across various sectors, from food to utilities, amidst persistently high inflation rates, with energy-driven EU inflation hitting lower-income households hardest across member states.

Energy bills saw a steep rise in 2021, which escalated further due to the Ukraine conflict in 2022, driving up wholesale gas prices. This surge prompted government intervention to subsidize bills, with the UK price cap estimated to cost around £89bn to the public purse, capping costs to a typical household at £2,500.

Cornwall Insight noted that the supply of liquified natural gas to Europe had not been as adversely affected by the Red Sea disruptions as initially feared. Moreover, the UK has been well-supplied with gas from the US, which has become a more significant supplier since the Ukraine war, even as US electricity prices have risen to multi-decade highs. Contributing factors also include lower gas prices in Asia, mild weather, and robust gas availability.

Craig Lowrey, a principal consultant at Cornwall Insight, remarked that concerns about Red Sea events driving up energy prices have not materialized, allowing households to expect a reduction in prices.

On Monday, the next-month wholesale gas price dropped by 4% to 65p a therm.

However, Lowrey cautioned that a complete return to pre-crisis energy bill levels remains unlikely due to ongoing market impacts from shifting away from Russian energy sources and persistent geopolitical tensions, as well as policy changes such as Britain’s Energy Security Bill shaping market reforms.

Richard Neudegg, director of regulation at Uswitch, welcomed the potential further reduction of the price cap in April. However, he pointed out that this offers little solace to households currently struggling with high winter energy costs during the winter. Neudegg urged Ofgem, the energy regulator, to prompt suppliers to reintroduce more competitive and affordable fixed-price deals.

 

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