Power restored after outages from wind storm

US utilities COVID-19 resilience shows electric utilities maintaining demand stability, reaffirming earnings guidance, and accessing the bond market for low-cost financing, as Dominion, NextEra, and Con Edison manage recession risks.

Key Points

It is the sector's capacity to sustain demand, financing access, and guidance despite pandemic recession pressures.

✅ Bond market access locks in low-cost, long-term debt

✅ Stable residential load offsets industrial weakness

✅ Guidance largely reaffirmed by major utilities

Dominion Energy (D) expects "incremental residential load" gains, consistent with COVID-19 electricity demand patterns, as a result of COVID-19 fallout. Southern Company CEO Tom Fanning says his company is "nowhere near" a need to review earnings guidance because of a potential recession, in a region where efficiency and demand response can help level electricity demand for years.

Sempra Energy (SRE) has reaffirmed earnings per share guidance for 2020 and 2021, as well timing for the sale of assets in Chile and Peru, and peers such as Duke Energy's renewables plan have reaffirmed capital investments to deliver cleaner energy and economic growth. And Xcel Energy (XEL) says it still "hasn’t seen material impact on its business."

Several electric utilities have demonstrated ability to tap the bond market, in line with utility sector trends in recent years, to lock in low-cost financing, as America moves toward broader electrification, despite ongoing turmoil. Their ranks include Dominion Energy, renewable energy leader NextEra Energy (NEE) and Consolidated Edison (ED), which last week sold $1 billion of 30-year bonds at a coupon rate of just 3.95 percent.

It’s still early days for US COVID-19 fallout. And most electric companies have yet to issue guidance. That’s understandable, since so much is still unknown about the virus and the damage it will ultimately do to human health and the global economy. But so far, the US power industry is showing typical resilience in tough times, as it coordinates closely with federal partners to maintain reliability.

Will it last? We won’t know for certain until there’s a lot more data. NextEra is usually first to report its Q1 earnings reports and detailed guidance. But that’s not expected until April 23. And companies may delay financials further, should the virus and efforts to control it impede collection and analysis of data, and as they address electricity shut-off risks affecting customers.

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CCUS in the U.S. Power Sector drives investments as DOE grants, 45Q tax credits, and EPA carbon rules spur carbon capture, geologic storage, and utilization, while debates persist over costs, transparency, reliability, and emissions safeguards.

Key Points

CCUS captures CO2 from power plants for storage or use, backed by 45Q tax credits, DOE funding, and EPA carbon rules.

✅ DOE grants and 45Q credits aim to de-risk project economics.

✅ EPA rules may require capture rates to meet emissions limits.

✅ Transparency and MRV guard against tax credit abuse.

New public and private funding, including DOE $110M for CCUS announced recently, and expected strong federal power plant emissions reduction standards have accelerated electricity sector investments in carbon capture, utilization and storage,’ or CCUS, projects but some worry it is good money thrown after bad.

CCUS separates carbon from a fossil fuel-burning power plant’s exhaust through carbon capture methods for geologic storage or use in industrial and other applications, according to the Department of Energy. Fossil fuel industry giants like Calpine and Chevron are looking to take advantage of new federal tax credits and grant funding for CCUS to manage potentially high costs in meeting power plant performance requirements, amid growing investor pressure for climate reporting, including new rules, expected from EPA soon, on reducing greenhouse gas emissions from existing power plants.

Power companies have “ambitious plans” to add CCUS to power plants, estimated to cause 25% of U.S. CO2 emissions. As a result, the power sector “needs CCUS in its toolkit,” said DOE Office of Fossil Energy and Carbon Management Assistant Secretary Brad Crabtree. Successful pilots and demonstrations “will add to investor confidence and lead to more deployment” to provide dispatchable clean energy, including emerging CO2-to-electricity approaches for power system reliability after 2030,| he added.

But environmentalists and others insist potentially cost-prohibitive CCUS infrastructure, including CO2 storage hub initiatives, must still prove itself effective under rigorous and transparent federal oversight.

“The vast majority of long-term U.S. power sector needs can be met without fossil generation, and better options are being deployed and in development,” Sierra Club Senior Advisor, Strategic Research and Development, Jeremy Fisher, said, pointing to carbon-free electricity investments gaining momentum in the market. CCUS “may be needed, but without better guardrails, power sector abuses of federal funding could lead to increased emissions and stranded fossil assets,” he added.

New DOE CCUS project grants, an increased $85 per metric ton, or tonne, federal 45Q tax credit, and the forthcoming EPA power plant carbon rules and the federal coal plan will do for CCUS what similar policies did for renewables, advocates and opponents agreed. But controversial past CCUS performance and tax credit abuses must be avoided with transparent reporting requirements for CO2 capture, opponents added.

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Uranium Critical Mineral Reclassification signals a US executive order directing USGS to restore critical status, boosting nuclear energy, domestic uranium mining, streamlined permitting, federal support, and energy security amid import reliance and supply chain risks.

Key Points

A policy relisting uranium as a critical mineral to unlock funding, speed permits, and strengthen U.S. nuclear security.

✅ Directs Interior to have USGS reconsider uranium classification

✅ Speeds permits for domestic uranium mining projects

✅ Targets import dependence and strengthens energy security

In a strategic move to bolster the United States' nuclear energy sector, former President Donald Trump issued an executive order on January 20, 2025, directing the Secretary of the Interior to instruct the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) to reconsider classifying uranium as a critical mineral. This directive aims to enhance federal support and streamline permitting processes for domestic uranium projects, thereby strengthening U.S. energy security objectives.

Reclassification of Uranium as a Critical Mineral

The USGS had previously removed uranium from its critical minerals list in 2022, categorizing it as a "fuel mineral" that did not qualify for such designation. The recent executive order seeks to reverse this decision, recognizing uranium's strategic importance in the context of the nation's energy infrastructure and geopolitical considerations.

Implications for Domestic Uranium Production

Reclassifying uranium as a critical mineral is expected to unlock federal funding and expedite the permitting process for uranium mining projects within the United States. This initiative is particularly pertinent given the significant decline in domestic uranium production over the past two decades. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, domestic production has decreased by 96%, from 4.8 million pounds in 2014 to approximately 121,296 pounds in the third quarter of 2024.

Current Uranium Supply Dynamics

Despite the push for increased domestic production, the U.S. remains heavily reliant on uranium imports. In 2022, 27% of U.S. uranium purchases were sourced from Canada, with an additional 57% imported from countries including Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Australia, and Russia; a recent ban on Russian uranium could further disrupt these supply patterns and heighten risks. This reliance on foreign sources has raised concerns about energy security, especially in light of recent geopolitical tensions.

Challenges and Considerations

While the executive order represents a significant step toward revitalizing the U.S. nuclear energy sector, several challenges persist, and energy dominance faces constraints that will shape implementation:

• Regulatory Hurdles: Accelerating the permitting process for uranium mining projects involves navigating complex environmental and regulatory frameworks, though recent permitting reforms for geothermal hint at potential pathways, which can be time-consuming and contentious.

• Market Dynamics: The uranium market is subject to global supply and demand fluctuations, and domestic producers may face competition from established international suppliers.

• Infrastructure Development: Expanding domestic uranium production necessitates substantial investment in mining infrastructure and workforce development, areas that have been underfunded in recent years.

Broader Implications for Nuclear Energy Policy

The executive order aligns with a broader strategy to revitalize the U.S. nuclear energy industry, where ongoing nuclear innovation is critical to delivering stable, low-emission power. The increasing demand for nuclear energy is driven by the global push for zero-emissions energy sources and the need to support power-intensive technologies, such as artificial intelligence servers.

Former President Trump's executive order to reclassify uranium as a critical mineral, aligning with his broader energy agenda and a prior pledge to end the 'war on coal', signifies a pivotal moment for the U.S. nuclear energy sector. By potentially unlocking federal support, including programs advanced by the Nuclear Innovation Act, and streamlining permitting processes, this initiative aims to reduce dependence on foreign uranium sources and enhance national energy security. However, realizing these objectives will require addressing regulatory challenges, market dynamics, and infrastructure needs to ensure the successful revitalization of the domestic uranium industry.

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Edmonton Electric Buses usher in zero-emission public transit with Proterra battery-electric vehicles, 350 km range, quiet rides, winter-ready performance, and overhead depot chargers, as ETS rolls out Canada's largest electric fleet across city routes.

Key Points

Battery-electric ETS vehicles from Proterra deliver zero-emission service, 350 km range, and winter-capable operation.

✅ Up to 350 km per charge; overhead depot fast chargers

✅ Quiet, smooth rides; zero tailpipe emissions

✅ Winter-tested performance across ETS routes

Your next trip on Edmonton transit could be a historical one as the city’s first battery-electric bus is now on city streets, marking a milestone for Edmonton Transit Service, and neighboring St. Albert has also introduced electric buses as part of regional goals.

“Transit has been around since 1908 in Edmonton. We had some really small buses, we had some trolley buses several years later. It’s a special day in history today,” Ryan Birch, acting director of transit operations, said. “It’s a fresh experience… quiet, smooth riding. It’s going to be absolutely wonderful.”

In a news release, Mayor Don Iveson called it the largest purchase of electric buses in Canadian history, while North America's largest electric bus fleet operates in Toronto today, and Metro Vancouver has buses on the road as well this year.

“Electric buses are a major component of the future of public transit in our city and across Canada.”

As of Tuesday, 21 of the 40 electric buses had arrived in the city, and the Toronto Transit Commission has introduced battery-electric buses in Toronto as well this year.

“We’re going to start rolling these out with four or five buses per day until we’ve got all the buses in stock rolled out. On Wednesday we will have three or four buses out,” Birch said.

The remaining 19 are scheduled to arrive in the fall.

The City of Edmonton ordered the battery-electric buses from Proterra, an electric bus supplier, while Montreal's STM has begun rolling out electric buses of its own recently.

The fleet can travel up to 350 kilometres on a single charge and the batteries work in all weather conditions, including Edmonton’s harsh winters, and electric school buses in B.C. have also taken to the roads in cold climates recently.

In 2015, ETS winter tested a few electric buses to see if the technology would be suitable for the city’s climate and geography amid barriers to wider adoption that many agencies consider.

“These buses are designed to handle most of our routes,” Birch said. “We are confident they will be able to stand up to what we expect of them.”

ETS is the first transit agency in North America to have overhead chargers installed inside transit facilities, which helps to save floor space.

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Ukraine Electricity Market Price Caps empower the regulator, the National Commission, to set marginal prices on day-ahead, intraday, and balancing markets, stabilize competition, support thermal plants, and sustain the heating season via green tariff obligations.

Key Points

Regulatory limits set by the National Commission to curb price spikes, ensure competition, and secure heat supply.

✅ Sets marginal prices for day-ahead, intraday, balancing markets

✅ Mitigates collusion risks; promotes effective competition

✅ Ensures TPP operation and heat supply during heating season

The Verkhovna Rada, Ukraine's parliament, has adopted at first reading a draft law that proposes giving the National Commission for State Regulation of Energy and Public Utilities the right to set marginal prices in the electricity market, amid EU market revamp plans that aim to reshape pricing, until 2023.

A total of 259 MPs voted for the document at a parliament meeting on Tuesday, November 12, amid electricity import pressures that have tested the grid, according to an Ukrinform correspondent.

Bill No. 2233 introducing amendments to the law on the electricity market provides for the legislative regulation of the mechanism for fulfilling special obligations for the purchase of electricity at a "green" tariff, preventing the uncontrolled growth of electricity prices due to the lack of effective competition, including recent price-fixing allegations that have raised concerns, ensuring heat supply to consumers during the heating period by regulating the issue of the functioning of thermal power plants in the new electricity market.

It is proposed to introduce respective amendments to the law of Ukraine on the electricity market, alongside steps toward synchronization with ENTSO-E to enhance system stability.

In particular, the draft law gives the regulator the right for the period until July 1, 2023 to set marginal prices on the day-ahead market, the intraday market and the balancing market for each trade zone, reflecting similar EU fixed-price contract initiatives being discussed, and to decide on the obligation for producers to submit proposals (applications) for the sale of electricity on the day-ahead market.

Lawmakers think that the adoption of the bill and empowering the regulator to set marginal prices in the relevant segments of the electricity market will prevent, even as rolling back prices in Europe remains difficult for policymakers, "an uncontrolled increase in electricity prices due to the lack of effective competition or collusion between market players, as well as regulate the issue of the functioning of thermal power plants during the autumn and winter period, which is a necessary prerequisite for providing heat to consumers during the heating period."

The new model of the electricity market was launched on July 1 as the UK weighs decoupling gas and power prices to shield consumers, in accordance with the provisions of the law on the electricity market, adopted in 2017.

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Hungary's Russian Energy Dependence underscores EU tensions, as TurkStream gas flows, discounted imports, and pipeline reliance challenge sanctions, energy security, diversification, and decoupling goals amid Ukraine war pressures and bloc unity concerns.

Key Points

It is Hungary's reliance on Russian gas and oil via TurkStream, complicating EU sanctions and energy independence.

✅ 85% gas, 60% oil imports from Russia via TurkStream pipelines.

✅ Discounted contracts seldom cut bills; security cited by Budapest.

✅ EU decoupling targets hampered; sanctions leverage and unity erode.

Hungary's energy policies have positioned it as a notable outlier within the European Union, particularly in the context of the ongoing geopolitical tensions stemming from Russia's invasion of Ukraine. While the EU has been actively working to reduce its dependence on Russian energy sources through an EU $300 billion plan to dump Russian energy, Hungary has maintained and even strengthened its energy ties with Moscow, raising concerns about EU unity and the effectiveness of sanctions.

Strategic Energy Dependence

Hungary's energy infrastructure is heavily reliant on Russian supplies. Approximately 85% of Hungary's natural gas and more than 60% of its oil imports originate from Russia. This dependence is facilitated through pipelines such as TurkStream, which delivers Russian gas to Hungary via Turkey and the Balkans amid Europe's energy nightmare over price volatility and security. In 2025, Hungary's gas imports through TurkStream are projected to reach 8 billion cubic meters, a significant increase from previous years. These imports are often secured at discounted rates, although such savings may not always be passed on to Hungarian consumers.

Political and Economic Considerations

Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has been a vocal critic of EU sanctions against Russia and has consistently blocked EU initiatives aimed at providing military aid to Ukraine, even as Ukraine leans on power imports to keep the lights on. His government argues that Russia's military capabilities make it an unyielding adversary and that a ceasefire would only solidify its territorial gains. Orbán's stance has led to Hungary's isolation within the EU on matters related to the conflict in Ukraine.

Economically, Hungary's reliance on Russian energy has been justified by the government as a means to maintain low energy prices for consumers and ensure energy security. However, critics argue that this strategy undermines EU efforts to achieve energy independence and reduces the bloc's leverage over Russia amid a global energy war marked by price hikes and instability.

EU's Response and Challenges

The European Union has set ambitious goals to reduce its reliance on Russian energy, aiming to halt imports of Russian natural gas by the end of 2027 and prohibit new contracts starting in 2025 while exploring gas price cap strategies to contain market volatility. However, Hungary's continued imports of Russian energy complicate these efforts. The TurkStream pipeline, in particular, has become a focal point in discussions about the EU's energy strategy, as it enables ongoing Russian gas exports to Europe despite the bloc's broader decoupling initiatives.

Hungary's actions have raised concerns among other EU member states about the effectiveness of the sanctions regime and the potential for other countries to exploit similar loopholes. There are calls for stricter policies, including banning spot gas purchases and enforcing traceability of gas origins, and consideration of emergency measures to limit electricity prices to ensure genuine energy independence and reduce overreliance on external suppliers.

Hungary's steadfast energy relationship with Russia presents a significant challenge to the European Union's collective efforts to reduce dependence on Russian energy sources. While Hungary argues that its energy strategy is in the national interest, it risks undermining EU solidarity and the bloc's broader geopolitical objectives. As the EU continues to navigate its energy transition and response to the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, including energy ceasefire violations reported by both sides, Hungary's position will remain a critical point of contention within the union.

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