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Iraq Electricity Crisis intensifies as summer heat drives demand; households face power outages, reliance on private generators, distorted tariffs, and strained grid capacity despite government reforms, Siemens upgrades, and IEA warnings.

Key Points

A supply-demand gap causing outages, generator reliance, and grid inefficiencies across Iraq, worsened by summer peaks.

✅ Siemens deal to upgrade generation and grid

✅ Progressive tariffs to curb demand and waste

✅ Private generators fill gaps but raise costs

At a demonstration in June 2018, protesters in Basra loaded a black box resembling a coffin with the inscription “Electricity” onto the roof of a car. This was one demonstration of how much of a political issue electricity is in Iraq.

With what is likely to be another hot summer ahead, there is increasing pressure on the Baghdad government to improve access to electricity and water.

Many Iraqis blame the government for not providing adequate services despite the country’s oil wealth. Protests in southern Iraq last year turned violent, with demonstrators attacking governmental and political parties’ buildings; in neighboring Iran, blackouts also sparked protests over outages.

“It is very hard” to deal with the electricity issues, said Iraqi journalist Methaq al-Fayyadh, adding that the lack of reliable electricity was not a new problem and affects most parts of the country.

Dozens of people protested June 1 in Karbala against prices for new generators and demanded an improvement to the electricity situation.

In anticipation of high temperatures during Eid al-Fitr, the Electricity Ministry called on governorates to adhere to allocated quotas and told the public to ration electricity.

“Outages remain a daily occurrence for most households because increasing generating capacity has been outrun by increasing demand for electricity, as surging demand worldwide demonstrates,” noted the International Energy Agency (IAE) in April.

This is particularly the case, the authors said, as the hot summer months, when temperatures can top 50 degrees Celsius, drive up the use of air conditioning.

The Iraqi government has made improving the electricity supply one of its priorities, including nuclear power plans under consideration. The Electricity Ministry, headed by Luay al-Khatteeb, announced in May that national electricity production had reached 17 gigawatts.

Khatteeb presented comparative electricity data for May from 2018 and 2019, indicating production increases on every day of the month. IEA data indicate that available electricity supply has increased over the past five years and the gap between supply and demand has widened.

The government signed an agreement with German company Siemens this year to upgrade Iraq’s electricity grid, and in parallel deals with Iran to rehabilitate and develop the grid were finalized, according to Iranian officials. The agreement “includes the addition of new and highly efficient power generation capacity, rehabilitation and upgrade of existing plants and the expansion of transmission and distribution networks,” Siemens said.

The Iraqi prime minister’s office said the 4-year plan would be worth $15.7 billion. The first phase includes the installation of 13 transformer stations, cooling systems for power stations and building a 500-megawatt, gas-fired power plant south of Baghdad.

In an interview with Al-Monitor, Khatteeb said radical changes would happen in 2020, stating that the current situation was not “ideal” but “better” because of steps taken to create more energy, amid discussions on energy cooperation with Iran that could shape implementation.

Robert Tollast, of the Iraq Energy Institute, said the economics of the electricity system is distorted. Subsidies ensured that electricity provided by the national grid is almost free, he said. However, while the subsidies were designed to help the poor, the tariff system disadvantages them and does not create incentives to consume electricity more efficiently, he said.

A large part of families’ electricity expenditures goes to operators of privately owned generators, which run on fuel. These neighbourhood generators are used to close gaps in the electricity supply but are expensive, and regional fuel arrangements such as ENOC’s swap of Iraqi fuel have highlighted supply constraints. Generator operators have sometimes worked with armed groups to prevent upgrades to the grid that could hurt their business.

Until 1990, the Iraq electricity sector was considered among the best in the region. That legacy was destroyed by successive wars and international sanctions. With Iraq’s population growing at a rate of 1 million per year, peak demand is projected to double by 2030 if left unchecked, the IEA estimated.

Tollast said efforts to improve the distribution system and increase capacity are key but it is important “to tackle the problem from the demand side.” This entails implementing a progressive tariff scheme so users pay more if they consume more, he said. There is a “tremendous use of energy per capita in Iraq,” Tollast said.

In the current tariff structure, consumers pay a fixed price if they use more than 4,000-kilowatt hours per year, a relatively low amount, meaning the price per unit drops the more one consumes.

Any change to the tariff system must be accompanied by a “political campaign” to explain the changes, said Tollast, adding that more investment in the electricity sector and a “change in culture” of using electricity was needed. “The current system is unsustainable, even with high oil prices,” he said.

Fayyadh said people don’t expect the government will be able to fix the electricity issue before summer, having failed to do so in the past.

Tollast struck a more optimistic tone, saying it was unlikely that Iran, which supplies about 40% of Iraq’s power, would cut its export of electricity to Iraq this year as it did in 2018. He added that the water situation was better than last year when the country experienced drought. Iraq has also been processing more flare gas, which can be used to generate electricity.

“There is an expectation that this year might not be as bad as last year,” he concluded.

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Spring Storm Grid Risks highlight tornado outbreaks, flooding, power outages, and transmission disruptions, with NOAA flood outlooks, coal and barge delays, vulnerable nuclear sites, and distribution line damage demanding resilience, reliability, and emergency preparedness.

Key Points

Spring Storm Grid Risks show how tornadoes and floods disrupt power systems, fuel transport, and plants guide resilience.

✅ Tornado outbreaks and derechos damage distribution and transmission

✅ Flooding drives outages via treefall, substation and plant inundation

✅ Fuel logistics disrupted: rail coal, river barges, road access

The storm and tornado outbreak that recently barreled through the US Midwest, South and Mid-Atlantic was a devastating reminder of how much danger spring can deliver, despite it being the “milder” season compared to summer and winter.  

Danger season is approaching, and the country is starting to see the impacts. 

The event killed at least 32 people across seven states. The National Weather Service is still tallying up the number of confirmed tornadoes, which has already passed 100. Communities coping with tragedy are assessing the damage, which so far includes at least 72 destroyed homes in one Tennessee county alone, and dozens more homes elsewhere. 

On Saturday, April 1–the day after the storm struck–there were 1.1 million US utility customers without power, even as EIA reported a January power generation surge earlier in the year. On Monday morning, April 3, there were still more than 80,000 customers in the dark, according to PowerOutage.us. The storm system brought disruptions to both distribution grids–those networks of local power lines you generally see running overhead to buildings–as well as the larger transmission grid in the Midwest, which is far less common than distribution-level issues. 

While we don’t yet have a lot of granular details about this latest storm’s grid impacts, recent shifts in demand like New York City's pandemic power patterns show how operating conditions evolve, and it’s worth going through what else the country might be in for this spring, as well as in future springs. Moreover, there are steps policymakers can take to prepare for these spring weather phenomena and bolster the reliability and resilience of the US power system. 

Heightened flood risk 
The National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said in a recent outlook that about 44 percent of the United States is at risk of floods this spring, equating to about 146 million people. This includes most of the eastern half of the country, the federal agency said. 

The agency also sees “major” flood risk potential in some parts of the Upper Mississippi River Basin, and relatively higher risk in the Sierra Nevada region, due in part to a historic snowpack in California.  

Multiple components of the power system can be affected by spring floods. 

Power lines – Floods can saturate soil and make trees more likely to uproot and fall onto power lines. This has been contributing to power outages during California’s recent heavy storms–called atmospheric rivers–that started over the winter. In other regions, soil moisture has even been used as a predictor of where power outages will occur due to hurricanes, so that utility companies are better prepared to send line repair crews to the right areas. Hurricanes are primarily a summer and fall phenomenon, and summer also brings grid stress from air conditioning demand in many states, so for now, during spring, they are less of a concern.  

Fuel transport – Spring floods can hinder the transportation of fuels like coal. While it is a heavily polluting fossil fuel that is set to continue declining as a fuel source for US electricity generation, with the EIA summer outlook for wind and solar pointing to further shifts, coal still accounted for roughly 20 percent of the country’s generation in 2022.   

About 70 percent of US coal is transported at least part of the way by trains. The rail infrastructure to transport coal from the Powder River Basin in Montana and Wyoming–the country’s primary coal source–was proven to be vulnerable to extreme floods in the spring of 2011, and even more extreme floods in the spring of 2019. The 2019 floods’ disruptions of coal shipments to power plants via rail persisted for months and into the summertime, also affecting river shipments of coal by barge. In June 2019, hundreds of barges were stalled in the Mississippi River, through which millions of tons of the fossil fuel are normally transported. 

Power plants – Power plants themselves can also be at risk of flooding, since most of them are sited near a source of water that is used to create steam to spin the plants’ turbines, and conversely, low water levels can constrain hydropower as seen in Western Canada hydropower drought during recent reservoir shortfalls. Most US fossil fuel generating capacity from sources like methane gas, which recently set natural gas power records across the grid, and coal utilizes steam to generate electricity. 

However, much of the attention paid to the flood risk of power plant sites has centered on nuclear plants, a key source of low-carbon electricity discussed in IAEA low-carbon electricity lessons that also require a water source for the creation of steam, as well as for keeping the plant cool in an emergency. To name a notable flood example here in the United States–both visually and substantively–in 2011, the Fort Calhoun nuclear plant in Nebraska was completely surrounded by water due to late-spring flooding along the Missouri River. This sparked a lot of concerns because it was just a few months after the March 2011 meltdown of the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant in Japan. The public was thankfully not harmed by the Nebraska incident, but this was unfortunately not an isolated incident in terms of flood risks posed to the US nuclear power fleet. 

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BC Hydro Review Phase 2 Recommendations advance affordable electricity rates, clean energy adoption, electrification, and demand response, supporting heat pumps, EV charging, and low-income programs to cut emissions and meet CleanBC climate targets.

Key Points

Policies to keep rates affordable and accelerate clean electrification via heat pump, EV, and demand response incentives.

✅ Optional rates, heat pump and EV charging incentives

✅ Demand response via controllable devices lowers peak loads

✅ Expanded support for lower-income customers and affordability

The Province and BC Hydro have released recommendations from Phase 2 of the BC Hydro Review to keep rates affordable, including through a provincial rate freeze initiative that supported households, and encourage greater use of clean, renewable electricity to reduce emissions and achieve climate targets.

“Keeping life affordable for people is a key priority of our government,” said Bruce Ralston, Minister of Energy, Mines and Low Carbon Innovation. “Affordable electricity rates not only help British Columbians, they help ensure the price of electricity remains competitive with other forms of energy, supporting the transition away from fossil fuels to clean electricity in our homes and buildings, vehicles and businesses.”

While affordable rates have always been important to BC Hydro customers, amid proposals such as a modest rate increase under review, expectations are also changing as customers look to have more choice and control over their electricity use and opportunities to save money.

Guided by input from a panel of external energy industry experts, government and BC Hydro have developed recommendations under Phase 2 of the BC Hydro Review to reduce electricity costs for individuals and businesses, even as a 3.75% increase has been discussed, as envisioned by the CleanBC climate strategy. This is also in alignment with TogetherBC, the Province’s poverty reduction strategy, and its guiding principle of affordability.

“As we promote increased use of electricity in B.C. to achieve our climate targets, we need to continue to focus on keeping electricity rates affordable, especially for lower-income families,” said Nicholas Simons, Minister of Social Development and Poverty Reduction. “Through the BC Hydro Review, and continuing engagement with stakeholders and organizations to follow, we are committed to finding ways to keep rates affordable, so everyone has access to the benefits of B.C.’s clean, reliable electricity.”

Recommendations include having BC Hydro consider providing more support for lower-income BC Hydro customers, informed by a recent surplus report that highlighted funding opportunities. These include incentives and exploring optional rates for customers to adopt electric heat pumps, and facilitating customer adoption of controllable energy devices that provide BC Hydro the ability to offer incentives in return for helping to manage a customer’s electricity use. 

Electrification of B.C.’s economy helps customers reduce their carbon footprint and supports the Province’s CleanBC climate strategy, and is an important part of keeping electricity affordable even amid higher BC Hydro rates in recent periods. As more customers make the switch from fossil fuels to using clean electricity in their homes, vehicles and businesses, BC Hydro’s electricity sales will increase, providing more revenue that helps keep rates affordable for everyone.

“We’re making the transition to a cleaner future more affordable for people and businesses across British Columbia through our CleanBC plan,” said George Heyman, Minister of Environment and Climate Change Strategy. “By working with BC Hydro and other partners, we’re making sure everyone has access to clean, affordable electricity to power technologies like high-efficiency heat pumps and electric vehicles that will reduce harmful pollution and improve our homes, buildings and communities.”

Chris O’Riley, president and CEO, BC Hydro, said: “Given the impact of COVID-19 on British Columbians, affordability is more important than ever. That’s why we are committed to continuing to keep rates affordable and offering customers more options that allow them to save on their bills while using clean electricity.”

In July 2021, the Province announced a first set of recommendations from Phase 2 of the BC Hydro Review amid a 3% rate increase approved by regulators. The next announcement from Phase 2 will include recommendations to increase the number of electric vehicles on the road.

In addition, as part of the Draft Action Plan to advance the Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples Act, the Province is proposing to engage with Indigenous peoples to identify and support new clean energy opportunities related to CleanBC, the BC Hydro Review and the British Columbia Utilities Commission Indigenous Utilities Regulation Inquiry, and to consider lessons from Ontario's hydro policy experiences as appropriate.

B.C. is the cleanest electricity-generation jurisdiction in western North America, with an average of 98% of its electricity generation coming from clean or renewable resources.

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IVECO BUS hydrogen and electric buses in France accelerate clean mobility, zero-emission public transport, fleet electrification, and fuel cell adoption, with battery-electric ranges, fast charging, hydrogen refueling, lower TCO, and high passenger comfort in cities.

Key Points

Zero-emission buses using battery-electric and fuel cell tech, cutting TCO with fast refueling and urban-ready range.

✅ Zero tailpipe emissions, lower noise, improved air quality

✅ Fast charging and rapid hydrogen refueling infrastructure

✅ Lower TCO via reduced fuel and maintenance costs

IVECO BUS is making significant strides in the French public transportation sector, recently securing contracts for the delivery of hydrogen and battery electric buses. This development underscores the growing commitment of cities and regions in France to transition to cleaner, more sustainable public transportation options, even as electric bus adoption challenges persist. With these new contracts, IVECO BUS is poised to strengthen its position as a leader in the electric mobility market.

Expanding the Green Bus Fleet

The contracts involve the supply of various models of IVECO's hydrogen and electric buses, highlighting a strategic shift towards sustainable transport solutions. France has been proactive in its efforts to reduce carbon emissions and promote environmentally friendly transportation. As part of this initiative, many local authorities are investing in clean bus fleets, which has opened up substantial opportunities for manufacturers like IVECO.

These contracts will provide multiple French cities with advanced vehicles designed to minimize environmental impact while maintaining high performance and passenger comfort. The move towards hydrogen and battery electric buses reflects a broader trend in public transportation, where cities are increasingly adopting green technologies, with lessons from TTC's electric bus fleet informing best practices to meet both regulatory requirements and public demand for cleaner air.

The Role of Hydrogen and Battery Electric Technology

Hydrogen and battery electric buses represent two key technologies in the transition to sustainable transport. Battery electric buses are known for their zero tailpipe emissions, making them ideal for urban environments where air quality is a pressing concern, as demonstrated by the TTC battery-electric rollout in North America. IVECO's battery electric models come equipped with advanced features, including fast charging capabilities and longer ranges, making them suitable for various operational needs.

On the other hand, hydrogen buses offer the advantage of rapid refueling and extended range, addressing some of the limitations associated with battery electric vehicles, as seen with fuel cell buses in Mississauga deployments across transit networks. IVECO’s hydrogen buses utilize cutting-edge fuel cell technology, allowing them to operate efficiently in urban and intercity routes. This flexibility positions them as a viable solution for public transport authorities aiming to diversify their fleets.

Economic and Environmental Benefits

The adoption of hydrogen and battery electric buses is not only beneficial for the environment but also presents economic opportunities. By investing in these technologies, local governments can reduce operating costs associated with traditional diesel buses. Electric and hydrogen buses generally have lower fuel costs and require less maintenance, resulting in long-term savings.

Furthermore, the transition to cleaner buses can help stimulate local economies. As cities invest in electric mobility, new jobs will be created in manufacturing, maintenance, and infrastructure development, such as charging stations and hydrogen fueling networks, including the UK bus charging hub model, which supports large-scale operations. This shift can have a positive ripple effect, contributing to overall economic growth while fostering a cleaner environment.

IVECO BUS's Commitment to Sustainability

IVECO BUS's recent successes in France align with the company’s broader commitment to sustainability and innovation. As part of the CNH Industrial group, IVECO is dedicated to advancing green technologies and reducing the carbon footprint of public transportation. The company has been at the forefront of developing environmentally friendly vehicles, and these new contracts further reinforce its leadership position in the market.

Moreover, IVECO is investing in research and development to enhance the performance and efficiency of its electric and hydrogen buses. This commitment to innovation ensures that the company remains competitive in a rapidly evolving market while meeting the changing needs of public transport authorities.

Future Prospects

As more cities in France and across Europe commit to sustainable transportation, including initiatives like the Berlin zero-emission bus initiative, the demand for hydrogen and battery electric buses is expected to grow. IVECO BUS is well-positioned to capitalize on this trend, with a diverse range of products that cater to various operational requirements.

The successful implementation of these contracts will likely encourage other regions to follow suit, paving the way for a greener future in public transportation. As IVECO continues to innovate and expand its offerings, alongside developments like Volvo electric trucks in Europe, it sets a precedent for the industry, illustrating how commitment to sustainability can drive business success.

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European Power Demand During Second Lockdowns remains resilient as winter heating offsets commercial losses; electricity consumption tracks seasonal norms, with weather sensitivity, industrial activity, natural gas shielding, and coal decline shaping dynamics under COVID-19 restrictions.

Key Points

It is expected to remain near seasonal norms, driven by heating, industry activity, and weather sensitive consumption.

✅ Winter heating offsets retail and hospitality closures

✅ Demand sensitivity rises with colder weather in France

✅ Gas generation shielded; coal likely to curtail first

European power demand is likely to hold up in the second round of national lockdown restrictions, with fluctuations most likely driven by changes in the weather.

Traders and analysts expect normal consumption this time around as home heating during the chilly season replaces commercial demand.

Last week electricity consumption in France, Germany and the U.K. was close to business-as-usual levels for the time of year, according to BloombergNEF data. By contrast, power demand had dropped 16% in the first seven days of the springtime lockdown, as reflected by the U.K.’s 10% daily decline reported then.

How power demand performs has significance outside the sector. It’s often seen as a proxy for economic growth and during lockdowns earlier this year, electricity use slumped along with GDP, and stunted hydro and nuclear output could further hobble recovery. For Western Europe, annual demand is expected to be 5% lower than the previous year, a bigger decline than after the global financial crisis in 2008, according to S&P Global Platts.

The Covid-19 limits are lighter than those from earlier in the year “with an explicit drive to preserve economic activity, particularly at the more energy-intensive industrial end of the spectrum,” said Glenn Rickson, head of European power analysis at S&P Global Platts.

Higher levels of working from home will offset some of the losses from shop and hospitality closures, “but also increase the temperature sensitivity of overall gas and power demand, as heat-driven demand records have shown in recent summers,” he said.

The latest wave of national lockdowns began in France, Germany, Spain, Italy and Britain, with Spain having seen April demand plummet earlier in the year, as coronavirus cases surged and officials struggled to keep the spread of the virus under control.

Much of the manufacturing industry remains working for now despite additional restrictions to contain the coronavirus. With the peak of the second wave yet to be reached, “it seems almost inevitable that the fourth quarter will prove economically challenging,” analysts at Alfa Energy said.

There will initially be significantly less of an impact on demand compared with this spring when global daily demand dipped about 15% and electricity consumption in Europe was down 30%, Johan Sigvardsson, power price analyst at Swedish utility Bixia AB said.

The prevalence of electric heating systems in France means that power demand is particularly sensitive to cold weather. A cold spell would significantly boost demand and drive record electricity prices in tight markets.

Similar to the last round of shutdowns, it’s use of coal that will probably be hit first if power demand sags, as transition-focused responses gather pace, leaving natural gas mostly shielded from fluctuations in the market.

“We expect that another drop in power demand would again impact coal-fired generation and shield gas power to some extent,” said Carlos Torres Diaz, an analyst at Rystad Energy.

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Summer Power Grid Reliability and Climate Risk drives urgent planning as extreme heat, peak demand, drought, and aging infrastructure strain ERCOT, NERC regions, risking outages without renewables integration and climate-informed grid modeling.

Key Points

Assessment of how extreme weather and demand stress the US grid, informing climate-smart planning to reduce outages.

✅ Many operators rely on historical weather, not climate projections

✅ NERC flags elevated blackout risk amid extreme heat and drought

✅ Renewables and storage can boost capacity and cut emissions

As heat ramps up ahead of what forecasters say will be a hotter than normal summer, electricity experts and officials are warning that states may not have enough power to meet demand in the coming months. And many of the nation's grid operators are also not taking climate change into account in their planning, despite available grid resilience guidance that could inform upgrades, even as extreme weather becomes more frequent and more severe.

Power operators in the Central US, in their summer readiness report, have already predicted "insufficient firm resources to cover summer peak forecasts." That assessment accounted for historical weather and the latest NOAA outlook that projects for more extreme weather this summer.

But energy experts say that some power grid operators are not considering how the climate crisis is changing our weather — including more frequent extreme events — and that is a problem if the intent is to build a reliable power grid while accelerating investing in carbon-free electricity across markets.

"The reality is the electricity system is old and a lot of the infrastructure was built before we started thinking about climate change," said Romany Webb, a researcher at Columbia University's Sabin Center for Climate Change Law. "It's not designed to withstand the impacts of climate change."

Webb says many power grid operators use historical weather to make investment decisions, rather than the more dire climate projections, simply because they want to avoid the possibility of financial loss, even as climate-related credit risks for nuclear plants are being flagged, for investing in what might happen versus what has already happened. She said it's the wrong approach and it makes the grid vulnerable.

"We have seen a reluctance on the part of many utilities to factor climate change into their planning processes because they say the science around climate change is too uncertain," Webb said. "The reality is we know climate change is happening, we know the impact it has in terms of more severe heatwaves, hurricanes, drought, with recent hydropower constraints in British Columbia illustrating the risks, and we know that all of those things affect the electricity system so ignoring those impacts just makes the problems worse."

An early heatwave knocked six power plants offline in Texas earlier this month. Residents were asked to limit electricity use, keeping thermostats at 78 degrees or higher and, as extreme heat boosts electricity bills for consumers, avoid using large appliances at peak times. The Electric Reliability Council of Texas, or ERCOT, in its seasonal reliability report, said the state's power grid is prepared for the summer and has "sufficient" power for "normal" summer conditions, based on average weather from 2006 to 2020.

But NOAA's recently released summer outlook forecasts above average temperatures for every county in the nation.

"We are continuing to design and site facilities based on historical weather patterns that we know in the age of climate change are not a good proxy for future conditions," Webb said.

When asked if the agency is creating a blind spot for itself by not accounting for extreme weather predictions, an ERCOT spokesperson said the report "uses a scenario approach to illustrate a range of resource adequacy outcomes based on extreme system conditions, including some extreme weather scenarios."

The North American Electric Reliability Corporation, or NERC — a regulating authority that oversees the health of the nation's electrical infrastructure — has a less optimistic projection.

In a recent seasonal reliability report, NERC placed Texas at "elevated risk" for blackouts this summer. It also reported that while much of the nation will have adequate electricity this summer, several markets are at risk of energy emergencies.

California grid operators, who recently avoided widespread rolling blackouts as heat strained the grid, in its summer reliability report also based its readiness analysis on "the most recent 20 years of historical weather data." The report also notes the assessment "does not fully reflect more extreme climate induced load and supply uncertainties."

Compounding the US power grid's supply and demand problem is drought: NERC says there's been a 2% loss of reliable hydropower from the nation's power-producing dams. Add to that the rapid retirement of many coal power plants — all while nearly everything from toothbrushes to cars are now electrified. Energy experts say adding more renewables into the mix will have the dual impact of cutting climate change inducing greenhouse gas emissions but also increasing the nation's power supply, aligning with efforts such as California's 100% carbon-free mandate that aim to speed the transition.
 

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