Outlook from solar companies disappoints investors

By Reuters


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U.S. solar companies SunPower Corp and Akeena Solar Inc posted results that topped Wall Street estimates, but offered little hope the market for the renewable energy source would rebound this year.

The two companies said the solar sector was seeing a slow improvement, but also admitted the industry has yet to overcome the oversupply problems that have driven prices for panels down by about 50 percent in the past 12 months.

"The industry is seeing a much more balanced picture in demand and supply," said SunPower's chief executive, Tom Werner, in an interview.

SunPower, which posted lower net income and trimmed its full-year earnings forecast to the low end of its previous range, said the financing environment for solar projects was improving, and the average selling price fell less than 10 percent during the third quarter.

The company's forecast narrowed in part because some of its large-scale projects have moved into the early part of 2010, Werner said in an interview.

"The good news there is that we're still sold out and we go in with a very strong pipeline into 2010," Werner said, adding that the company is "better positioned" for the first quarter of 2010 than it was for the first quarter in 2009.

Werner also told reporters during a conference call he saw residential demand strengthening in all markets, but still expected average selling prices of panels to weaken in the fourth quarter.

SunPower shares tumbled 13 percent to $29.05 following the results in extended trade after closing at $33.30 on the Nasdaq.

Demand for systems that turn sunlight into electricity has taken a hit because of the global financial crisis and an oversupply of cells and modules caused by a cutback in Spanish subsidies.

Investors are also now fretting over how much and when Germany's government will cut aid to its solar industry, the world's top market.

Werner said SunPower has always prepared for a decline in solar aid in Germany but noted that Germany is a "great market" even with a change in the country's subsidy.

MEMC Electronic Materials Inc, which produces silicon wafers that are a key component in solar cells, swung to a larger-than-expected quarterly loss but said it saw sequential increase in demand.

MEMC said it expected nearly flat revenues during the fourth quarter as compared to the third — an outlook executives at the company said was conservative given the uncertainty over pricing.

The company's shares fell nearly 2 percent in after-market trading on the New York Stock Exchange.

MEMC also announced it plans to acquire privately held SunEdison, which designs, installs and finances solar systems for commercial customers.

Smaller solar power systems maker Akeena Solar Inc posted a narrower-than-expected third-quarter loss as it took advantage of lower panel prices and cheaper installation costs.

But shares of the company closed down nearly 2 percent after it said that installation results in the fourth quarter would likely be similar to those in the third quarter.

Akeena said net sales for the quarter fell 27 percent to $7.7 million, reflecting decline in commercial revenue due to the tight credit market and overall economic conditions.

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Philippines Reaffirms Clean Energy Commitment at APEC Summit

Philippines Clean Energy Commitment underscores APEC-aligned renewables, energy transition, and climate resilience, backed by policy incentives, streamlined regulation, technology transfer, and public-private investments to boost energy security, jobs, and sustainable growth.

 

Key Points

It is the nation's pledge to scale renewables and build climate resilience through APEC-aligned energy policy.

✅ Policy incentives, PPPs, and streamlined permits

✅ Grid upgrades, storage, and smart infrastructure

✅ Regional cooperation on tech transfer and capacity building

 

At the recent Indo-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Summit, the Philippines reiterated its dedication to advancing clean energy initiatives as part of its sustainable development agenda. This reaffirmation underscores the country's commitment to mitigating climate change impacts, promoting energy security, and fostering economic resilience through renewable energy solutions, with insights from an IRENA study on the power crisis informing policy direction.

Strategic Goals and Initiatives

During the summit, Philippine representatives highlighted strategic goals aimed at enhancing clean energy adoption and sustainability practices. These include expanding renewable energy infrastructure, accelerating energy transition efforts toward 100% renewables targets, and integrating climate resilience into national development plans.

Policy Framework and Regulatory Support

The Philippines has implemented a robust policy framework to support clean energy investments and initiatives. This includes incentives for renewable energy projects, streamlined regulatory processes, and partnerships with international stakeholders, such as ADFD-IRENA funding initiatives, to leverage expertise and resources in advancing sustainable energy solutions.

Role in Regional Cooperation

As an active participant in regional economic cooperation, the Philippines collaborates with APEC member economies to promote knowledge sharing, technology transfer, and capacity building in renewable energy development, as over 30% of global electricity is now generated from renewables, reinforcing the momentum. These partnerships facilitate collective efforts to address energy challenges and achieve mutual sustainability goals.

Economic and Environmental Benefits

Investing in clean energy not only reduces greenhouse gas emissions but also stimulates economic growth and creates job opportunities in the renewable energy sector. The Philippines recognizes the dual benefits of transitioning to cleaner energy sources, with projects like the Aboitiz geothermal financing award illustrating private-sector momentum, contributing to long-term economic stability and environmental stewardship.

Challenges and Opportunities

Despite progress, the Philippines faces challenges such as energy access disparities, infrastructure limitations, and financing constraints in scaling up clean energy projects, amid regional signals like India's solar slowdown and coal resurgence that underscore transition risks. Addressing these challenges requires innovative financing mechanisms, public-private partnerships, and community engagement to ensure inclusive and sustainable development.

Future Outlook

Moving forward, the Philippines aims to accelerate clean energy deployment through strategic investments, technology innovation, and policy coherence, aligning with the U.S. clean energy market trajectory toward majority share to capture emerging opportunities. Embracing renewable energy as a cornerstone of its economic strategy positions the country to attract investments, enhance energy security, and achieve resilience against global energy market fluctuations.

Conclusion

The Philippines' reaffirmation of its commitment to clean energy at the APEC Summit underscores its leadership in promoting sustainable development and addressing climate change challenges. By prioritizing renewable energy investments and fostering regional cooperation, the Philippines aims to build a resilient energy infrastructure that supports economic growth and environmental sustainability. As the country continues to navigate its energy transition journey, collaboration and innovation will be key in realizing a clean energy future that benefits present and future generations.

 

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COVID-19 Response: Electric Power Industry Closely Coordinating With Federal Partners

ESCC COVID-19 Response coordinates utilities, public power, and cooperatives to protect the energy grid and electricity reliability, aligning with DOE, DHS, CDC, FERC, and NERC on continuity of operations, mutual assistance, and supply chain resilience.

 

Key Points

An industry government effort ensuring reliability, operations continuity and supply chain stability during COVID-19.

✅ Twice weekly ESCC calls align DOE, DHS, HHS, CDC, FERC, NERC priorities.

✅ Focus on control centers, generation, quarantine access, mutual aid.

✅ Resource Guide supports localized decisions and supply chain resilience.

 

The nation’s investor-owned electric companies, public power utilities, and electric cooperatives are working together to protect the energy grid as the U.S. grid addresses COVID-19 challenges and ensure continued access to safe and reliable electricity during the COVID-19 global health crisis.

The electric power industry has been planning for years, including extensive disaster planning across utilities, for an emergency like the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as countless other types of emergencies, and the industry is coordinating closely with government partners through the Electricity Subsector Coordinating Council (ESCC) to ensure that organizations have the resources they need to keep the lights on.

The ESCC is holding high-level coordination calls twice a week with senior leadership from the Departments of Energy, Homeland Security, and Health and Human Services, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, and the North American Electric Reliability Corporation. These calls help ensure that industry and government work together to resolve any challenges that arise during this health emergency and that electricity remains safe for customers.

“Electricity and the energy grid are indispensable to our society, and one of our greatest strengths as an industry is our ability to convene and adapt quickly to changing circumstances and challenging events,” said Edison Electric Institute President Tom Kuhn. “Our industry plans for all types of contingencies, with examples such as local response planning, and strong industry-government coordination and cross-sector collaboration are critical to our planning and response. We appreciate the ongoing leadership and support of our government partners as we all respond to COVID-19 and power through this crisis together.”

The ESCC quickly mobilized and established strategic working groups dedicated to identifying and solving for short-, medium-, and long-term issues facing the industry during the COVID-19 pandemic, with utilities implementing necessary precautions to maintain service across regions.

The five current areas of focus are:

1. Continuity of operations at control centers, including on-site staff lockdowns when needed
2. Continuity of operations at generation facilities
3. Access to, and operations in, restricted or quarantined areas
4. Protocols for mutual assistance
5. Supply chain challenges

“The electric power industry has taken steps to prepare for the evolving coronavirus challenges, while maintaining our commitment to the communities we serve, including customer relief efforts announced by some providers,” said National Rural Electric Cooperative Association CEO Jim Matheson. “We have a strong track record of preparing for many kinds of emergencies that could impact the ability to generate and deliver electricity. While planning for this situation is unique from other business continuity planning, we are taking actions to prepare to operate with a smaller workforce, potential disruptions in the supply chain, and limited support services for an extended period of time.”

The ESCC has developed a COVID-19 Resource Guide linked here and available at electricitysubsector.org. This document was designed to support electric power industry leaders in making informed localized decisions in response to this evolving health crisis. The guide will evolve as additional recommended practices are identified and as more is learned about appropriate mitigation strategies.

“The American Public Power Association (APPA) continues to work with our communityowned public power members and our industry and government partners to gather and share upto-date information, best practices, and guidance to support them in safely maintaining operational integrity,” said APPA CEO Joy Ditto.

 

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Nuclear helps Belgium increase electricity exports in 2019

Belgium Energy Mix 2019 shows strong nuclear output, rising offshore wind, net electricity exports, and robust interconnections, per Elia, as the nuclear phaseout drives 3.9GW new capacity needs after improved reactor availability.

 

Key Points

High nuclear share, offshore wind, net exports, interconnections; 3.9GW capacity needed amid nuclear phaseout.

✅ Nuclear supplied 48.8% of generation in 2019.

✅ Net exporter: 1.8 TWh, aided by interconnections.

✅ Elia projects 3.9GW new capacity for phaseout.

 

Belgium's electricity transmission system operator, Elia, said that the major trends in 2019 were a steady increase in (mainly offshore) renewable power generation, illustrated by EU wind and solar records across the bloc, better availability of nuclear-generating facilities and an increase in electricity exports.

In 2019, 48.8% of the power generated in Belgium came from nuclear plants. This was in line with the total for 2017 (50%) and significantly more than in 2018 (31.2%) when several reactors were unavailable amid stunted hydro and nuclear output in Europe as well.

Belgium exported more electricity in 2019, as neighbors like Germany saw renewables overtake coal and nuclear generation, with net exports of 1.8TWh (2.1% of the energy mix), in contrast to 2018 when Belgium imported 17.5TWh (20%).

Elia said this “should be viewed in its wider context, of declining nuclear capacity in Europe and regional market shifts, against the backdrop of an increasingly Europeanised market, and can be explained primarily by the good availability of Belgium's generating facilities (especially its nuclear power stations).”

The development of interconnections was also a key factor in the circulation of these electricity flows, as seen with Irish grid price spikes highlighting regional stress, Elia noted.

“Belgium had not been a net exporter of electricity for almost 10 years, the last time being in 2009 and 2010, when total net exports represented 2.8% and 0.2% respectively of Belgium’s energy mix,” it said.

Belgian has seven nuclear reactors – three at Tihange near Liege and four at Doel near Antwerp – and, regionally, nuclear-powered France faces outage risks that influence cross-border reliability.

In 2003, Belgium decided to phase out nuclear power and passed a law to that effect, with neighbors like Germany navigating a balancing act during their energy transition, which was reaffirmed in 2015 and 2018.

A commission appointed to assess the impact of the nuclear phaseout is scheduled to be completed in 2025 but has yet to report any findings.

Elia estimates that some 3.9GW of new power generating capacity will be needed to compensate for Belgium's nuclear phaseout.

 

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Energy freedom and solar’s strategy for the South

South Carolina Energy Freedom Act lifts net metering caps, reforms PURPA, and overhauls utility planning to boost solar competition, grid resiliency, and consumer choice across the Southeast amid Santee Cooper debt and utility monopoly pressure.

 

Key Points

A bipartisan reform lifting net metering caps, modernizing PURPA, and updating utility planning to expand solar.

✅ Lifts net metering cap to accelerate rooftop and community solar.

✅ Reforms PURPA contracts to enable fair pricing and transparent procurement.

✅ Modernizes utility IRP and opens markets to competition and customer choice.

 

The South Carolina House has approved the latest version of the Energy Freedom Act, a bill that overhauls the state’s electricity policies, including lifting the net metering caps and reforming PURPA implementation and utility planning processes in a way that advocates say levels the playing field for solar at all scales.

With Governor Henry McMaster (R) expected to sign the bill shortly, this is a major coup not just for solar in the state, but the region. This is particularly notable given the struggle that solar has had just to gain footing in many parts of the South, which is dominated by powerful utility monopolies and conservative politicians.

Two days ago when the bill passed the Senate we covered the details of the policy, but today we’re going to take a look at the politics of getting the Energy Freedom Act passed, and what this means for other Southern states and “red” states.

 

Opportunity amid crisis

The first thing to note about this bill is that it comes within a crisis in South Carolina’s electricity sector. This was the first legislative session following state-run utility Santee Cooper’s formal abandonment of a project to build two new reactors at the Virgil C. Sumner nuclear power plant, on which work stopped nearly two years ago.

Santee Cooper still holds $4 billion in construction debt related to the nuclear projects. According to an article in The State, this is costing its customers $5 per month toward the current debt, and this will rise to $13 per month for the next 40 years.

Such costs are particularly unwelcome in South Carolina, which has the highest annual electricity bills in the nation due to a combination of very high electricity usage driven by widespread air conditioning during the hot summers and higher prices per unit of power than other Southern states.

Following this fiasco, Santee Cooper’s CEO has stepped down, and the state government is currently considering selling the utility to a private entity. According to Maggie Clark, southeast state affairs senior manager for Solar Energy Industries Association, all of this set the stage for the bill that passed today.

“South Carolina is in a really ripe state for transformational energy policy in the wake of the VC Sumner nuclear plant cancellation,” Clark told pv magazine. “They were looking for a way forward, and I think this bill really provided them something to champion.”

 

Renewable energy policy for red states

This major win for solar policy comes in a state where the Republican Party holds majorities in both houses of the state’s legislature and sends bills to a Republican governor.

Broadly speaking, Republican politicians seldom show the level of interest in supporting renewable energy that Democrats do either at the state or national level, and show even less inclination to act to address greenhouse gas emissions. In fact, the 100% clean energy mandates that are being implemented in four states and Washington D.C. have only passed with Democratic trifectas, in other words with Republicans controlling neither house of the state legislature nor the governor’s office. (Note: This does not apply to Puerto Rico, which has a different party structure to the rest of the United States)

However, South Carolina shows there are Republican politicians who will support pro-renewable energy policies, and circumstances under which Republican majorities will vote for legislation that aids the adoption of solar. And these specific circumstances speak to both different priorities and ideological differences between the two parties.

SEIA’s Maggie Clark emphasizes that the Energy Freedom Act was about reforming market rules. “This was a way to provide a program that did not provide subsidies or incentives in any way, but to really open the market to competition,” explains Clark. “I think that appealing to conservatives in the South about energy independence and resiliency and ultimately cost savings is the winning message on this issue.”

Such messaging in South Carolina is not an accident. Not only has such messaging been successful in the past, but coalition partner Vote Solar paid for polling to find what messages resounded with the state’s voters, and found that choice and competition were likely to resound.

And all of this happened in the context of what Clark describes as an “extremely well-resourced effort”, with SEIA in particular dedicating national attention and resources to the state – as part of an effort by President and CEO Abigail Hopper to shift attention more towards state-level policy. Maggie Clark is one of two new regional staff who Hopper has hired, and SEIA’s first staff member focused on Southern states.

“Absolutely the South is a prioritized region,” Hopper told pv magazine, noting that three Southern states – the Carolinas and Florida – are among the 12 states that the organization has identified to work on this year. “It became clear that as a region it needed more attention.”

SEIA is not expecting fly-by-night victories, and Hopper attributes the success in South Carolina not only to a broad coalition, but to years of work on the ground in the state.

Nor is SEIA the only organization to grow its presence in the region. Vote Solar now has two full time staff located in the South, whereas two years ago its sole staff member dedicated to the region was located in Washington D.C.

 

Ideology versus reality in the South

The Energy Freedom Act aligns with conservative ideas about small government and competition, but the American right is not monolithic, nor do political ideas and actions always line up neatly, as other successful policies in other states in the region show

By far the largest deployment of renewable energy in the nation has been in Texas, aside from in California which leads overall. Here a system of renewable energy zones in the sparsely populated but windy and sunny west, north and center of the state feed cities to the east with power from wind and more recently solar.

This was enabled by transmission lines whose cost was socialized among the state’s ratepayers – a tremendous irony given that the state’s politicians would be some of the last in the nation to want to be identified with socializing anything.

Another example is Louisiana, which saw a healthy residential solar market over the last decade due to a 50% state rebate. The policy has expired, but when operating it was exactly the sort of outright subsidy that right-wing media and politicians rail against.

Of course there is also North Carolina, which built the 2nd-largest solar market in the nation on the back of successful state-level implementation of PURPA, a federal law. Finally there is Virginia, where large-scale projects are booming following a 2018 law that found that 5 GW of solar is in the public interest.

Furthermore, while conservatives continually expound the virtues of the free market, the reality of the electricity sector in the “deep red” South is anything but that. The region missed out on the wave of deregulation in the 1990s, and remains dominated by monopoly utilities regulated by the state: a union of big business and big government where competition is non-existent.

This has also meant that the solar which has been deployed in the South is mostly not the kind of rooftop solar that many think of as embodying energy independence, but rather large-scale solar built in farms, fields and forests.

 

Where to from here?

With such contradictions between stated ideology and practice, it is less clear what makes for successful renewable energy policy in the South. However, opening up markets appears to be working not only in South Carolina, but also in Florida, where third-party solar companies are making inroads after the state’s voters rejected a well-funded and duplicitous utilities’ campaign to kill distributed solar.

SEIA’s Hopper says that she is “aggressively optimistic” about solar in Florida. As utilities have dominated large-solar deployment in the state, even as the state declined federal solar incentives earlier this year, she says that she sees opening up the state’s booming utility-scale solar market to competition as a priority.

Some parts of the region may be harder than others, and it is notable that SEIA has not had as much to say about Alabama, Mississippi or Louisiana, which are largely controlled by utility giants Southern Company and Entergy, or the area under the thumb of the Tennessee Valley Authority, one of the most anti-solar entities in the power sector.

Abby Hopper says ultimately, demand from customers – both individuals and corporations – is the key to transforming policy. “You replicate these victories by customer demand,” Hopper told pv magazine. “That combination of voices from the customer are what’s going to drive change.”

 

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Poland’s largest power group opts to back wind over nuclear

Poland Offshore Wind Energy accelerates as PGE exits nuclear leadership, PKN Orlen steps in, and Baltic Sea projects expand to cut coal reliance, meet EU emissions goals, attract investors, and bridge the power capacity gap.

 

Key Points

A shift from coal and nuclear to Baltic offshore wind to add capacity, cut EU emissions, and attract investment.

✅ PGE drops lead in nuclear; pivots $10bn to offshore wind.

✅ PKN Orlen may assume nuclear role; projects await approval.

✅ 6 GW offshore could add 60b zlotys and 77k jobs by 2030.

 

PGE, Poland’s biggest power group has decided to abandon a role in building the country’s first nuclear power plant and will instead focus investment on offshore wind energy.

Reuters reports state-run refiner PKN Orlen (PKN.WA) could take on PGE’s role, while the latter announces a $10bn offshore wind power project.

Both moves into renewables and nuclear represent a major change in Polish energy policy, diversifying away from the country’s traditional coal-fired power base, as regional efforts like the North Sea wind farms initiative expand, in a bid to fill an electricity shortfall and meet EU emission standards.

An unnamed source told the news agency, PGE could not fund both projects and cheap technology had swung the decision in favour of wind, with offshore wind competing with gas in some markets. PGE could still play a smaller role in the nuclear project which has been delayed and still needs government approval.

#google#

A proposed law is currently before the Polish parliament aiming at facilitating easy construction of wind turbines, mindful of Germany’s grid expansion challenges that have hindered rollout.

If the law is passed, as expected, several other wind farm projects could also proceed.

Polenergia has said it would like to build a wind farm in the Baltic by 2022. PKN Orlen is also considering building one.

PGE said in March that it wants to build offshore windfarms with a capacity of 2.5 gigawatts (GW) by 2030.

Analysts and investors say that offshore wind farms are the easiest and fastest way for Poland to fill the expected capacity gap from coal, with examples like the largest UK offshore wind farm coming online underscoring momentum, and reduce CO2 emissions in line with EU’s 2030 targets as Poland seeks improved ties with Brussels.

The decision to open up the offshore power industry could also draw in investors, as shown by Japanese utilities’ UK offshore investment attracting cross-border capital. Statoil said in April it would join Polenergia’s offshore project which has drawn interest from other international wind companies. “

The Polish Wind Energy Association (PWEA) estimates that offshore windfarms with a total capacity of 6 GW would help create around 77,000 new jobs and add around 60 billion zlotys to economic growth.

 

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Top Senate Democrat calls for permanent renewable energy, storage, EV tax credits

Clean Energy Tax Incentives could expand under Democratic proposals, including ITC, PTC, and EV tax credits, boosting renewable energy, energy storage, and grid modernization within a broader infrastructure package influenced by Green New Deal goals.

 

Key Points

Federal incentives like ITC, PTC, and EV credits that cut costs and speed renewables, storage, and grid upgrades.

✅ Proposes permanence for ITC, PTC, and EV tax credits

✅ Could accelerate solar, wind, storage, and grid upgrades

✅ Passage depends on bipartisan infrastructure compromise

 

The 115th U.S. Congress has not even adjourned for the winter, and already a newly resurgent Democratic Party is making demands that reflect its majority status in the U.S. House come January.

Climate appears to be near the top of the list. Last Thursday, Senator Chuck Schumer (D-NY), the Democratic Leader in the Senate, sent a letter to President Trump demanding that any infrastructure package taken up in 2019 include “policies and funding to transition to a clean energy economy and mitigate the risks that the United States is already facing due to climate change.”

And in a list of policies that Schumer says should be included, the top item is “permanent tax incentives for domestic production of clean electricity and storage, energy efficient homes and commercial buildings, electric vehicles, and modernizing the electric grid.”

In concrete terms, this could mean an extension of the Investment Tax Credit (ITC) for solar and energy storage, the Production Tax Credit (PTC) for wind and the federal electric vehicle (EV) tax credit program as well.

 

Pressure from the Left

This strong statement on climate change, clean energy and infrastructure investment comes as at least 30 incoming members of the U.S. House of Representatives have signed onto a call for the creation of a committee to explore a “Green New Deal” and to move the nation to 100% renewable energy by 2030.*

It also comes as Schumer has come under fire by activists for rumors that he plans to replace Senator Maria Cantwell (D-Washington) with coal state Democrat Joe Manchin (D-West Virginia) as the top Democrat on the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee.

As such, one possible way to read these moves is that centrist leaders like Schumer are responding to pressure from an energized and newly elected Left wing of the Democratic Party. It is notable that Schumer’s program includes many of the aims of the Green New Deal, while avoiding any explicit use of that phrase.

 

Implications of a potential ITC extension

The details of levels and timelines are important here, particularly for the ITC.

The ITC was set to expire at the end of 2016, but was extended in legislative horse-trading at the end of 2015 to a schedule where it remains at 30% through the end of 2019 and then steps down for the next three years, and disappears entirely for residential projects. Since that extension the IRS has issued guidance around the use of co-located energy storage, as well as setting a standard under which PV projects can claim the ITC for the year that they begin construction.

This language around construction means that projects can start work in 2019, complete in 2023 and still claim the 30% ITC, and this may be why we at pv magazine USA are seeing an unprecedented boom in project pipelines across the United States.

Of course, if the ITC were to become permanent some of those projects would be pushed out to later years. But as we saw in 2016, despite an extension of the ITC many projects were still completed before the deadline, leading to the largest volume of PV installed in the United States in any one year to date.

This means that if the ITC were extended by the end of 2020, we could see the same thing all over again – a boom in projects created by the expected sunset, and then after a slight lull a continuation of growth.

Or it is possible that a combination of raw economics, increased investor and utility interest, and accelerating renewable energy mandates will cause solar growth rates to continue every year, and that any changes in the ITC will only be a bump against a larger trend.

While the basis for expiration of the EV tax credit is the number of vehicles sold, not any year, both the battery storage and EV industries, which many see at an inflection point, could see similar effects if the ITC and EV tax credits are made permanent.

 

Will consensus be reached?

It is also unclear that any such infrastructure package will be taken up by Republicans, or that both parties will be able to come to a compromise on this issue. While the U.S. Congress passed an infrastructure bill in 2017, given the sharp and growing differences between the two parties, and divergent trade approaches such as the 100% tariff on Chinese-made EVs, it is not clear that they will be able to come to a meaningful compromise during the next two years.

 

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