Gadgets eating more energy

A "load forecast" discussion paper released by the Ontario Power Authority estimates that minor appliances — everything from plasma screen TVs and DVD players to toaster ovens and iPod chargers — will be the single largest contributor to residential energy growth between now and 2025.

"Minor appliances include quite a few things," said Vipin Prasad, director of power system planning with the Ontario Power Authority. "In the old days, there was one TV (in a home); now there are at least two TVs. It's the same for computers, and that is all reflected here."

The paper is the second of eight that the power authority is releasing this year as it works toward its "integrated power system" plan, a 20-year roadmap for investment in power generation, transmission and conservation in the province.

As a load forecast, it takes into account voluntary conservation, changes in the economy that might reduce energy intensity of homes and businesses, and the replacement of old equipment with newer, more energy-efficient versions.

It excludes the impact of new laws, regulation and incentives designed to boost conservation and energy efficiency — for example, amendments to the provincial building code that go into effect next year.

According to the paper, the energy consumed by minor appliances will grow to 20.32 terawatt-hours in 2025 from 12.71 terawatt-hours in 2005, representing energy growth of 7.61 terawatt-hours. That's roughly equivalent to the annual output of two Pickering A nuclear reactors totalling 1,000 megawatts. A terawatt is a trillion watts.

"It's a fair chunk of consumption," said Mark Winfield, director of environmental governance at the Pembina Institute.

But Winfield disputes the assumptions being made about growth. He said the fact most minor consumer appliances and electronic devices have a short life cycle means they will likely be replaced with more energy-efficient versions every few years, unlike major appliances such as dishwashers.

"Essentially they assume there will be no improvements beyond the current commercially available technologies," Winfield said. "Given the current pace of technological development, this seems a very conservative assumption."

Unclear from the report is whether the proliferation of such devices and appliances outweighs any gains attributed to more efficient design.

The paper estimates growth in energy consumption will rise 1 per cent annually between 2005 and 2015, after which it says forecasts become "more uncertain." It predicts that consumption will rise to 196 terawatt-hours in 2025 from 155 terawatt-hours in 2005.

José Etcheverry, a climate change analyst with the David Suzuki Foundation, said the power authority's projections ignore recent historical trends that suggest annual growth in electricity consumption is well below 1 per cent.

"They should be asking how to bring demand down to 0.5 per cent and not assuming that it will go up 1 per cent," he said. "Their estimates are high and represent a self-fulfilling prophecy approach."

The power authority's conclusions are based on the following projections:

The number of households in the province will grow at an average annual rate of 1.2 per cent, and commercial floor space will grow at 1.9 per cent.

By 2025 the commercial sector will consume 35.6 per cent of electricity, followed by industry at 33.4 per cent and residential at 30.9 per cent.

Space heating, lighting and office equipment will drive growth in electricity demand in the commercial sector, while industry will require more electricity to power machinery and for direct heating.

"The suggestion of increased electric heating for commercial space is also rather surprising given the predicted direction of electricity prices," said Winfield, adding that the projections fail to fully consider big structural changes in the economy that are resulting in a decline in energy-intensive industries.

He pointed out that long-term projections have been wrong in the past. In the 1970s the government predicted significant economic growth and devoted billions of dollars to new nuclear and oil-fired facilities. That growth never emerged and high-cost facilities ended up being mothballed or delayed at huge expense.

"We risk repeating the errors of our past," said Winfield, referring to the Ontario government's intention to spend $40 billion over 20 years as part of a plan to refurbish its nuclear fleet and build new reactors.