How one man turned his back on gas

By Globe and Mail


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As the price of gasoline has gone up, so, too, has the workload at Randy Holmquist's shop.

In January, he had three employees. Today, he has six.

All four work bays were busy. As soon as a vehicle was finished, another took its place.

Still, the orders pile up like the Colwood Crawl at rush hour.

"We're so freaking busy right now," he said, taking a break in a hectic day to answer a few questions.

Right off the bat, he got stumped.

He was asked the price of gasoline in Errington, outside Parksville, where he has based the world headquarters of Canadian Electric Vehicles Ltd.

"Around a buck forty, I think. I don't know."

How would he? He long ago converted his Dodge Dakota to run on diesel.

Now, he's altering it to run on vegetable oil.

At home, the ride-on mower runs on electricity, as does the rototiller.

"We don't have anything that runs on gas," he said.

That's quite a statement from a fellow who has always been a car guy.

Mr. Holmquist, 48, remembers the family car, a Rambler station wagon in which his father, a cabinet maker, used to haul wood.

He grew up in Nanaimo, where car culture thrived in the postwar years as prosperity from high-paying union jobs in the mills paid for the cost of turning a stock model into a muscle car.

He owned his first automobile before he could legally drive. He bought a '67 Mustang at age 15, rebuilding the engine before taking it for spins along the old Island Highway.

In Grade 10, he rebuilt a Volkswagen engine that he then attached to a dune buggy, which he drove on some off-road adventures. "I'd beat it to death on weekends," he said, "fix it in the school shop and then do it all over again the next weekend." He got an A in shop that year.

Among the grease-stained car culture crowd, he was seen as a bit of an oddball for his preference for building and racing vehicles that weren't street legal. What the heck was the point if he didn't intend to blow the doors off some other guy's racer?

In 1989, he had an epiphany on a beautiful summer day. He was lounging on the beach near his home at Lantzville, gazing across Georgia Strait to the Sunshine Coast. Only the other coast wasn't seeing any sunshine.

A greenish cloud of exhaust haze had moved up the coast from Vancouver.

He decided he could no longer contribute to the pollution.

He bought a wrecked '63 Triumph Spitfire for $500 from a neighbour - "It was literally in boxes" - with the intent of building a reliable, clean vehicle for his daily 30-kilometre commute to his job at Anchorage Marina in Nanaimo.

He gutted the car, replacing the internal combustion engine with a kit purchased from a U.S. company.

The two-seater roadster turned out to be a poor choice. The axle broke. The torque of the electric motor caused other problems.

He then converted a cherry-red Nissan pickup truck. It zipped along silently at 120 km/h, startling other drivers who would speed up to check out what at the time was still a novelty.

At work, the truck was plugged in for the drive back home. To cover the cost, a nickel was left for the boss.

The truck is still on the road at Royal Roads University, outside Victoria.

Mr. Holmquist left the marina job to go into business selling conversion kits.

A few years ago, he moved to Errington, which was founded in the 1890s as a roadhouse on the way to Port Alberni. In those days, horse power transported people, only to be replaced by horsepower engines. A century later, Mr. Holmquist converts Chevrolet S10 pickups to electricity. The basic do-it-yourself conversion kit for these vehicles is $9,525 (batteries not included).

He also sells something he calls the Might-E Truck, a low-speed, mid-sized truck. For five years, he has been waiting for Transport Canada's approval for its use on streets and highways.

While most of his trucks are sold in the United States, where they are approved for use on public roads, he has found a niche market in Canada. One truck is used by municipal workers in Whistler, three are on the grounds of the Bruce nuclear station in Ontario, and 10 can be found on the University of British Columbia campus, with more on the way.

A larger electric truck is in use at airports at Dubai, Hong Kong and Los Angeles.

Mr. Holmquist's company also sells an electric towing unit called a Might-E Tug, which is popular with hospitals.

Before carbon taxes and gas-pump robbery and even before the 2006 release of the documentary Who Killed the Electric Car?, Mr. Holmquist has been a quiet evangelist for a quieter, cleaner mode of transport.

So, the price of gasoline is not something he follows closely. He called on one of his employees.

"Hey, Shane. What's gas today?"

"One forty-two nine," he replied.

Which is at least 1,429 reasons to be driving electric.

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TCA Electric Leads Hydrogen Crane Project at Vancouver Port

Hydrogen Fuel Cell Crane Port of Vancouver showcases zero-emission RTG technology by DP World, TCA Electric, and partners, using hydrogen-electric fuel cells, battery energy storage, and regenerative capture to decarbonize container handling operations.

 

Key Points

A retrofitted RTG crane powered by hydrogen fuel cells, batteries, and regeneration to cut diesel use and CO2 emissions.

✅ Dual fuel cell system charges high-voltage battery

✅ Regenerative capture reduces energy demand and cost

✅ Pilot targets zero-emission RTG fleets by 2040

 

In a groundbreaking move toward sustainable logistics, TCA Electric, a Chilliwack-based industrial electrical contractor, is at the forefront of a pioneering hydrogen fuel cell crane project at the Port of Vancouver. This initiative, led by DP World in collaboration with TCA Electric and other partners, marks a significant step in decarbonizing port operations and showcases the potential of hydrogen technology in heavy-duty industrial applications.

A Vision for Zero-Emission Ports

The Port of Vancouver, Canada's largest port, has long been a hub for international trade. However, its operations have also contributed to substantial greenhouse gas emissions, even as DP World advances an all-electric berth in the U.K., primarily from diesel-powered Rubber-Tired Gantry (RTG) cranes. These cranes are essential for container handling but are significant sources of CO₂ emissions. At DP World’s Vancouver terminal, 19 RTG cranes account for 50% of diesel consumption and generate over 4,200 tonnes of CO₂ annually. 

To address this, the Vancouver Fraser Port Authority and the Province of British Columbia have committed to transforming the port into a zero-emission facility by 2050, supported by provincial hydrogen investments that accelerate clean energy infrastructure across B.C. This ambitious goal has spurred several innovative projects, including the hydrogen fuel cell crane pilot. 

TCA Electric’s Role in the Hydrogen Revolution

TCA Electric's involvement in this project underscores its expertise in industrial electrification and commitment to sustainable energy solutions. The company has been instrumental in designing and implementing the electrical systems that power the hydrogen fuel cell crane. This includes integrating the Hydrogen-Electric Generator (HEG), battery energy storage system, and regenerative energy capture technologies. The crane operates using compressed gaseous hydrogen stored in 15 pressurized tanks, which feed a dual fuel cell system developed by TYCROP Manufacturing and H2 Portable. This system charges a high-voltage battery that powers the crane's electric drive, significantly reducing its carbon footprint. 

The collaboration between TCA Electric, TYCROP, H2 Portable, and HTEC represents a convergence of local expertise and innovation. These companies, all based in British Columbia, have leveraged their collective knowledge to develop a world-first solution in the industrial sector, while regional pioneers like Harbour Air's electric aircraft illustrate parallel progress in aviation. TCA Electric's leadership in this project highlights its role as a key enabler of the province's clean energy transition. 

Demonstrating Real-World Impact

The pilot project began in October 2023 with the retrofitting of a diesel-powered RTG crane. The first phase included integrating the hydrogen-electric system, followed by a one-year field trial to assess performance metrics such as hydrogen consumption, energy generation, and regenerative energy capture rates. Early results have been promising, with the crane operating efficiently and emitting only steam, compared to the 400 kilograms of CO₂ produced by a comparable diesel unit. 

If successful, this project could serve as a model for decarbonizing port operations worldwide, mirroring investments in electric trucks at California ports that target landside emissions. DP World plans to consider converting its fleet of RTG cranes in Vancouver and Prince Rupert to hydrogen power, aligning with its global commitment to achieve carbon neutrality by 2040.

Broader Implications for the Industry

The success of the hydrogen fuel cell crane pilot at the Port of Vancouver has broader implications for the shipping and logistics industry. It demonstrates the feasibility of transitioning from diesel to hydrogen-powered equipment in challenging environments, and aligns with advances in electric ships on the B.C. coast. The project's success could accelerate the adoption of hydrogen technology in other ports and industries, contributing to global efforts to reduce carbon emissions and combat climate change.

Moreover, the collaboration between public and private sectors in this initiative sets a precedent for future partnerships aimed at advancing clean energy solutions. The support from the Province of British Columbia, coupled with the expertise of companies like TCA Electric and utility initiatives such as BC Hydro's vehicle-to-grid pilot underscore the importance of coordinated efforts in achieving sustainability goals.

Looking Ahead

As the field trial progresses, stakeholders are closely monitoring the performance of the hydrogen fuel cell crane. The data collected will inform decisions on scaling the technology and integrating it into broader port operations. The success of this project could pave the way for similar initiatives in other regions, complementing the province's move to electric ferries with CIB support, promoting the widespread adoption of hydrogen as a clean energy source in industrial applications.

TCA Electric's leadership in this project exemplifies the critical role of skilled industrial electricians in driving the transition to sustainable energy solutions. Their expertise ensures the safe and efficient implementation of complex systems, making them indispensable partners in the journey toward a zero-emission future.

The hydrogen fuel cell crane pilot at the Port of Vancouver represents a significant milestone in the decarbonization of port operations. Through innovative partnerships and local expertise, this project is setting the stage for a cleaner, more sustainable future in global trade and logistics.

 

 

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Over 30% of Global Electricity from Renewables

Global Renewable Electricity Milestone signals solar, wind, hydro, and geothermal surpass 30% of power generation, driven by falling costs, battery storage, smart grids, and ambitious policy targets that strengthen energy security and decarbonization.

 

Key Points

It marks renewables exceeding 30% of global power, enabled by cheaper tech, storage, and strong policy.

✅ Costs of solar and wind fall, boosting competitiveness

✅ Storage and smart grids improve reliability and flexibility

✅ Policies target decarbonization while ensuring just transition

 

A recent report by the energy think tank Ember marks a significant milestone in the global energy transition. For the first time ever, according to their analysis, renewable energy sources like solar, wind, hydro, and geothermal now account for more than 30% of the world's electricity generation, a milestone echoed by wind and solar growth globally. This achievement signifies a pivotal shift towards a cleaner and more sustainable energy future.

The report attributes this growth to several key factors. Firstly, the cost of renewable energy technologies like solar panels and wind turbines has plummeted in recent years, making them increasingly competitive with traditional fossil fuels. Secondly, advancements in battery storage technology are facilitating the integration of variable renewable sources like solar and wind into the grid, addressing concerns about reliability. Thirdly, a growing number of countries are implementing ambitious renewable energy targets and policies, driven by environmental concerns and the desire for energy security.

The rise of renewables is not uniform across the globe. Europe leads the pack, with the European Union generating a staggering 44% of its electricity from renewable sources in 2023. Countries like Denmark, Germany, and Spain are at the forefront of this clean energy revolution. Developing nations are also starting to embrace renewables, driven by factors like falling technology costs and the need for affordable electricity access.

However, challenges remain. Fossil fuels still dominate the global energy mix, accounting for roughly two-thirds of electricity generation. Integrating a higher proportion of variable renewables into the grid necessitates robust storage solutions and smart grid technologies. Additionally, the transition away from fossil fuels needs to be managed carefully to ensure a just and equitable outcome for workers in the coal, oil, and gas sectors.

Despite these challenges, the report by Ember paints an optimistic picture. The rapid growth of renewables demonstrates their increasing viability and underscores the global commitment to a cleaner energy future, and in the United States, for example, renewables are projected to reach one-fourth of U.S. electricity generation, reinforcing this trajectory. The report also highlights the economic benefits of renewables, with new jobs created in the clean energy sector and reduced reliance on volatile fossil fuel prices.

Looking ahead, continued technological advancements, supportive government policies, and increased investment in renewable energy infrastructure are all crucial for further growth, with scenarios such as BNEF's 2050 outlook suggesting wind and solar could provide half of electricity, underscoring the importance of sustained effort. Furthermore, international cooperation is essential to ensure a smooth and equitable global energy transition. Developed nations can play a vital role by sharing technology and expertise with developing countries.

The 30% milestone is a significant step forward, but it's just the beginning. As the world strives to combat climate change and ensure energy security for future generations, renewables are poised to play a central role in powering a sustainable future, with wind and solar surpassing coal in the U.S. offering a clear signal of the shift. The report by Ember serves as a powerful reminder that a clean energy future is not just a dream, but a rapidly unfolding reality.

 

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New rules give British households right to sell solar power back to energy firms

UK Smart Export Guarantee enables households to sell surplus solar energy to suppliers, with dynamic export tariffs, grid payments, and battery-friendly incentives, boosting local renewable generation, microgeneration uptake, and decarbonisation across Britain.

 

Key Points

UK Smart Export Guarantee pays homes for exporting surplus solar power to the grid via supplier tariffs.

✅ Suppliers must pay households for exported kWh.

✅ Dynamic tariffs incentivize daytime solar generation.

✅ Batteries boost self-consumption and grid flexibility.

 

Britain’s biggest energy companies will have to buy renewable energy from their own customers through community-generated green electricity models under new laws to be introduced this week.

Homeowners who install new rooftop solar panels from 1 January 2020 will be able to lower their bills as many seek to cut soaring bills by selling the energy they do not need to their supplier.

A record was set at noon on a Friday in May 2017, when solar energy supplied around a quarter of the UK’s electricity, and a recent award that adds 10 GW of renewables indicates further growth.

However, solar panel owners are not always at home on sunny days to reap the benefit. The new rules will allow them to make money if they generate electricity for the grid.

Some 800,000 householders with solar panels already benefit from payments under a previous scheme. However, the subsidies were controversially scrapped by the government in April, with similar reduced credits for solar owners seen in other regions, causing the number of new installations to fall by 94% in May from the month before.

Labour accused the government last week of “actively dismantling” the solar industry. The sector will still struggle this summer as the change does not come in for another seven months, so homeowners have no incentive to buy panels this year.

Chris Skidmore, the minister for energy and clean growth, said the government wanted to increase the number of small-scale generators without adding the cost of subsidies to energy bills. “The future of energy is local and the new smart export guarantee will ensure households that choose to become green energy generators will be guaranteed a payment for electricity supplied to the grid,” he said. The government also hopes to encourage homes with solar panels to install batteries to help manage excess solar power on networks.

Greg Jackson, the founder of Octopus Energy, said: “These smart export tariffs are game-changing when it comes to harnessing the power of citizens to tackle climate change”.

A few suppliers, including Octopus, already offer to buy solar power from their customers, often setting terms for how solar owners are paid that reflect market conditions.

“They mean homes and businesses can be paid for producing clean electricity just like traditional generators, replacing old dirty power stations and pumping more renewable energy into the grid. This will help bring down prices for everyone as we use cheaper power generated locally by our neighbours,” Jackson said.

Léonie Greene, a director at the Solar Trade Association, said it was “vital” that even “very small players” were paid a fair price. “We will be watching the market like a hawk to see if competitive offers come forward that properly value the power that smart solar homes can contribute to the decarbonising electricity grid,” she said.

 

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Looming Coal and Nuclear Plant Closures Put ‘Just Transition’ Concept to the Test

Just Transition for Coal and Nuclear Workers explains policy frameworks, compensation packages, retraining, and community support during decarbonization, plant closures, and energy shifts across Europe and the U.S., including Diablo Canyon and Uniper strategies.

 

Key Points

A policy approach to protect and retrain legacy power workers as coal and nuclear plants retire during decarbonization.

✅ Germany and Spain fund closures with compensation and retraining.

✅ U.S. lacks federal support; Diablo Canyon is a notable exception.

✅ Firms like Uniper convert coal sites to gas and clean energy roles.

 

The coronavirus pandemic has not changed the grim reality facing workers at coal and nuclear power plants in the U.S. and Europe. How those workers will fare in the years ahead will vary greatly based on where they live and the prevailing political winds.

In Europe, the retirement of aging plants is increasingly seen as a matter of national concern. Germany this year agreed to a €40 billion ($45 billion) compensation package for workers affected by the country's planned phaseout of coal generation by 2038, amid its broader exit from nuclear power as part of its energy transition. Last month the Spanish authorities agreed on a just transition plan affecting 2,300 workers across 12 thermal power plants that are due to close this year.

In contrast, there is no federal support plan for such workers in the U.S., said Tim Judson, executive director at the Maryland-based Nuclear Information and Resource Service, which lobbies for an end to nuclear and fossil-fuel power.

For all of President Donald Trump’s professed love of blue-collar workers in sectors such as coal, “where there are economic transitions going on, we’re terrible at supporting workers and communities,” Judson said of the U.S. Even at the state level, support for such workers is "almost nonexistent,” he said, “although there are a lot of efforts going on right now to start putting in place just transition programs, especially for the energy sector.”

One example that stands out in the U.S. is the support package secured for workers at utility PG&E's Diablo Canyon Power Plant, California's last operating nuclear power plant that is scheduled for permanent closure in 2025. “There was a settlement between the utility, environmental groups and labor unions to phase out that plant that included a very robust just transition package for the workers and the local community,” Judson said.

Are there enough clean energy jobs to replace those being lost?
Governments are more likely to step in with "just transition" plans where they have been responsible for plant closures in the first place. This is the case for California, Germany and Spain, all moving aggressively to decarbonize their energy sectors and pursue net-zero emissions policy goals.

Some companies are beginning to take a more proactive approach to helping their workers with the transition. German energy giant Uniper, for example, is working with authorities to save jobs by seeking to turn coal plants into lower-emissions gas-fired units.

Germany’s coal phaseout will force Uniper to shut down 1.5 gigawatts of hard-coal capacity by 2022, but the company has said it is looking at "forward-looking" options for its plants that "will be geared toward tomorrow's energy world and offer long-term employment prospects."

Christine Bossak, Uniper’s manager of external communications, told GTM this approach would be adopted in all the countries where Uniper operates coal plants.

Job losses are usually inevitable when a plant is closed, Bossak acknowledged. “But the extent of the reduction depends on the alternative possibilities that can be created at the site or other locations. We will take care of every single employee, should he or she be affected by a closure. We work with the works council and our local partners to find sustainable solutions.”

Diana Junquera Curiel, energy industry director for the global union federation IndustriALL, said such corporate commitments looked good on paper — but the level of practical support depends on the prevailing political sentiment in a country, as seen in Germany's nuclear debate over climate strategy.

Even in Spain, where the closure of coal plants was being discussed 15 years ago, a final agreement had to be rushed through at the last minute upon the arrival of a socialist government, Junquera Curiel said. An earlier right-wing administration had sat on the plan for eight years, she added.

The hope is that heel-dragging over just transition programs will diminish as the scale of legacy plant closures grows.

Nuclear industry facing a similar challenge as coal
One reason why government support is so important is there's no guarantee a burgeoning clean energy economy will be able to absorb all the workers losing legacy generation jobs. Although the construction of renewable energy projects requires large crews, it often takes no more than a handful of people to operate and maintain a wind or solar plant once it's up and running, Junquera Curiel observed.

Meanwhile, the job losses are unlikely to slow. In Europe, Austria and Sweden both closed their last coal-fired units recently, even as Europe loses nuclear capacity in key markets.

In the U.S., the Energy Information Administration's base-case prediction is that coal's share of power generation will fall from 24 percent in 2019 to 13 percent in 2050, while nuclear's will fall from 20 percent to 12 percent over that time horizon. The EIA has long underestimated the growth trajectory of renewables in the mix; only in 2020 did it concede that renewables will eventually overtake natural gas as the country's largest source of power.

The Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis has predicted that even a coronavirus-inspired halt to renewables is unlikely to stop a calamitous drop in coal’s contribution to U.S. generation.

The nuclear sector faces a similar challenge as coal, albeit over a longer timeline. Last year saw the nuclear industry starting to lose capacity worldwide in what could be the beginning of a terminal decline, highlighted by Germany's shutdown of its last three reactors in 2023. Last week, the Indian Point Energy Center closed permanently after nearly half a century of cranking out power for New York City.*

“Amid ongoing debates over whether to keep struggling reactors online in certain markets, the industry position would be that governments should support continued operation of existing reactors and new build as part of an overall policy to transition to a sustainable clean energy system,” said Jonathan Cobb, senior communication manager at the World Nuclear Association.

If this doesn’t happen, plant workers will be hoping they can at least get a Diablo Canyon treatment. Based on the progress of just transition plans so far, that may depend on how they vote just as much as who they work for.

 

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BC Hydro cryptic about crypto mining electricity use

BC Hydro Crypto Mining Moratorium pauses high-load connection requests, as BCUC reviews electricity demand, gigawatt-hours and megawatt load forecasts, data center growth, and potential rate impacts on the power grid and industrial customers.

 

Key Points

A BC order pausing crypto mining connections while BC Hydro and BCUC assess load, grid impacts, and ratepayer risks.

✅ 18-month pause on new high-load crypto connections

✅ 1,403 MW in requests suspended; 273 MW existing or pending

✅ Seeks to manage demand, rates, and grid reliability

 

In its Nov. 1, 2022 load update briefing note to senior executives of the Crown corporation, BC Hydro shows that the entire large industrial sector accounted for 6,591 gigawatt-hours during the period – one percent less than forecast in the service plan.

BC Hydro censored load statistics about crypto mining, coal mining and chemicals from the briefing note, which was obtained under the freedom of information law and came amid scrutiny over B.C. electricity imports because it feared that disclosure would harm Crown corporation finances and third-party business interests.

Crypto mining requires high-powered computers to run and be cooled around the clock constantly. So much so that cabinet ordered the BC Utilities Commission (BCUC) last December to place an 18-month moratorium on crypto mining connection requests, while other jurisdictions, such as the N.B. Power crypto review, undertook similar pauses to assess impacts.


In a news release, the government said 21 projects seeking 1,403 megawatts were temporarily suspended. The government said that would be enough to power 570,000 homes or 2.1 million electric vehicles for a year.

A report issued by BC Hydro before Christmas said there were already 166 megawatts of power from operational projects at seven sites. Another six projects with 107 megawatts were nearing connection, bringing its total load to 273 megawatts.

Richard McCandless, a retired assistant deputy minister who analyzes the performance of BC Hydro and the Insurance Corp of British Columbia, said China's May 2021 ban on crypto mining had a major ripple effect on those seeking cheap and reliable power.

"When China cracked down, these guys fled to different areas," McCandless said in an interview. "So they took their computers and went somewhere else. Some wound up in B.C."

He said BC Hydro's secrecy about crypto loads appears rooted in the Crown corporation underestimating load demand, even as new generating stations were commissioned to bolster capacity.

"Crypto is up so dramatically; they didn't want to show that," McCandless said. "Maybe they didn't want to be seen as being asleep at the switch."

Indeed, BCUC's April 21 decision on BC Hydro's 2021 revenue forecasts through the 2025 fiscal year included BC Hydro's forecast increase for crypto and data centres of about 100 gigawatt-hours through fiscal 2024 before returning to 2021 levels by 2025. In addition, the BCUC document said that BC Hydro's December 2020 load forecast was lower than the previous one because of project cancellations and updated load requests, amid ongoing nuclear power debate in B.C.

"Given the segment's continued uncertainty and volatility, the forecast assumes these facilities are not long-lived," the BC Hydro application said.

A September 2022 report to the White House titled "Crypto-Assets in the United States" said increased electricity demand from crypto-asset mining could lead to rate increases.

"Crypto-asset mining in upstate New York increased annual household electric bills by [US]$82 and annual small business electric bills by [US]$164, with total net losses from local consumers and businesses estimated to be [US]$179 million from 2016-2018," the report said. The information mentioned Plattsburgh, New York's 18-month moratorium in 2018. Manitoba announced a similar suspension almost a month before B.C.

B.C.'s total core domestic load of 23,666 gigawatt-hours was two percent higher than the service plan amid BC Hydro call for power planning, with commercial and light industrial (9,198 gigawatt-hours) and residential (7,877 gigawatt-hours) being the top two customer segments.

"A cooler spring and warmer summer supported increased loads, as the Western Canada drought strained hydropower production regionally. However, warmer daytime temperatures in September impacted heating more than cooling," said the briefing note.

"Commercial and light industrial consumption benefited from warmer temperatures in August but has also been impacted to a lesser degree by the reduced heating load in the first three weeks of October."

Loads improved relative to 2021, but offices, retail businesses and restaurants remained below pre-pandemic levels. Education, recreation and hotel sectors were in line with pre-pandemic levels. Light industrial sector growth offset the declines.

For heavy industry, pulp and paper electricity use was 15 percent ahead of forecast, but wood manufacturing was 16 percent below forecast. The briefing note said oil and gas grew nine percent relative to the previous year but, alongside ongoing LNG power demand, fell nine percent below the service plan.

 

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Analysis: Why is Ontario’s electricity about to get dirtier?

Ontario electricity emissions forecast highlights rising grid CO2 as nuclear refurbishments and the Pickering closure drive more natural gas, limited renewables, and delayed Quebec hydro imports, pending advances in storage and transmission upgrades.

 

Key Points

A projection that Ontario's grid CO2 will rise as nuclear units refurbish or retire, increasing natural gas use.

✅ Nuclear refurbs and Pickering shutdown cut zero-carbon baseload

✅ Gas plants fill capacity gaps, boosting GHG emissions

✅ Quebec hydro imports face cost, transmission, and timing limits

 

Ontario's energy grid is among the cleanest in North America — but the province’s nuclear plans mean that some of our progress will be reversed over the next decade.

What was once Canada’s largest single source of greenhouse-gas emissions is now a solar-power plant. The Nanticoke Generating Station, a coal-fired power plant in Haldimand County, was decommissioned in stages from 2010 to 2013 — and even before the last remaining structures were demolished earlier this year, Ontario Power Generation had replaced its nearly 4,000 megawatts with a 44-megawatt solar project in partnership with the Six Nations of the Grand River Development Corporation and the Mississaugas of the Credit First Nation.

But neither wind nor solar has done much to replace coal in Ontario’s hydro sector, a sign of how slowly Ontario is embracing clean power in practice across the province. At Nanticoke, the solar panels make up less than 2 per cent of the capacity that once flowed out to southern Ontario over high-voltage transmission lines. In cleaning up its electricity system, the province relied primarily on nuclear power — but the need to extend the nuclear system’s lifespan will end up making our electricity dirtier again.

“We’ve made some pretty great strides since 2005 with the fuel mix,” says Terry Young, vice-president of corporate communications at the Independent Electricity System Operator, the provincial agency whose job it is to balance supply and demand in Ontario’s electricity sector. “There have been big changes since 2005, but, yes, we will see an increase because of the closure of Pickering and the refurbs coming.”

“The refurbs” is industry-speak for the major rebuilds of both the Darlington and Bruce nuclear-power stations. The two are both in the early stages of major overhauls intended to extend their operating lives into the 2060s: in the coming years, they’ll be taken offline and rebuilt. (The Pickering nuclear plant will not be refurbished and will shut down in 2024.)

The catch is that, as the province loses its nuclear capacity in increments, Ontario will be short of electricity in the coming years and the IESO will need to find capacity elsewhere to make sure the lights stay on. And that could mean burning a lot more natural gas — and creating more greenhouse-gas emissions.

According to the IESO’s planning assumptions, electricity will be responsible for 11 megatonnes of greenhouse-gas emissions annually by 2035 (last year, it was three megatonnes). That’s the “reference case” scenario: if conservation and efficiency policies shave off some electricity demand, we could get it down to something like nine megatonnes. But if demand is higher than expected, it could be as high as 13 megatonnes — more than quadruple Ontario’s 2018 emissions.

Even in the worst-case scenario, the province’s emissions from electricity would still be less than half of what they were in 2005, before the province began phasing out its coal generation. But it’s still a reversal of a trend that both Liberals and Progressive Conservatives have boasted about — the Liberals to justify their energy policies, the PCs to justify their hostility to a federal carbon tax.

Young emphasized that technology can change and that the IESO’s planning assumptions are just that: projections based on the information available today. A revolution in electricity storage could make it possible to store the province’s cleaner power sources overnight for use during the day, but that’s still only in the realm of speculation — and the natural-gas infrastructure exists in the real world, today.

Ontario Power Generation — the Crown corporation that operates many of the province’s power plants, including Pickering and Darlington — recently bought four gas plants, two of them outright (two it already owned in part). All were nearly complete or already operational, so the purchase itself won’t change the province’s emissions prospects. Rather, OPG is simply looking to maintain its share of the electricity market after the Pickering shutdown.

“It will allow us to maintain our scale, with the upcoming end of Pickering’s commercial operations, so that we can continue our role as the driver of Ontario’s lower carbon future,” Neal Kelly, OPG’s director of media, issues, and management, told TVO.org via email. “Further, there is a growing need for flexible gas fired generation to support intermittent wind and solar generation.”

The shift to more gas-fired generation has been coming for a while, and critics say that Ontario has missed an opportunity to replace the lost Pickering capacity with something cleaner. MPP Mike Schreiner, leader of the Green party, has argued for years that Ontario should have pursued an agreement with Quebec to import clean hydroelectricity.

“To me, it’s a cost-effective solution, and it’s a zero-emissions solution,” Schreiner says. “Regardless of your position on sources of electricity, I think everyone could agree that waterpower from Quebec is going to be less expensive.”

Quebec is eager to sell Ontario its surplus hydro power, but not everyone agrees that importing power would be cheaper. A study published by the Ontario Chamber of Commerce (and commissioned by Ontario Power Generation) calls the claim a “myth” and states that upgrading electric-transmission wires between Ontario and Quebec would cost $1.2 billion and take 10 years, while some estimates suggest fully greening Ontario's grid would cost far more overall.

With Quebec imports seemingly a non-starter and major changes to Ontario’s nuclear fleet already underway, there’s only one path left for this province’s greenhouse-gas emissions: upwards.

 

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Whether you would prefer Live Online or In-Person instruction, our electrical training courses can be tailored to meet your company's specific requirements and delivered to your employees in one location or at various locations.