New power plants brighten energy outlook

California Summer Power Outlook 2010 projects 1,760 MW added capacity, peak demand of 47,139 MW, low outage risk, hydropower gains, demand response, Flex Alerts amid heat waves, wildfires, reduced Northwest imports, and modest economic recovery.

The California Independent System Operator Corporation ISO 2010 Summer Assessment indicates adequate electricity to meet this summer's expected peak demand thanks in part to the construction of new power plants.

By this summer, a total of 1,760 megawatts will have come on line since summer of 2009 as summer power supply expands across California. More than 80 megawatts is renewable generation.

The chance for rotating power outages is less than one percent as the state power grid remains adequately supplied this season. As always, conditions can change quickly due to high air conditioning use during summer heat waves or wildfires near high-voltage lines affecting the flow of electricity.

Other factors contributing to the forecast include the recession, which continues to dampen California electricity use across the state. Although, a modest economic recovery is leading to a slightly higher demand forecast. The 2010 peak demand forecast is 47,139 megawatts, 2.9 percent above last summer’s peak of 45,809 megawatts, but well below the all-time record peak demand of 50,270 megawatts set in July, 2006.

The summer assessment includes 2,403 megawatts, a 15 percent increase in various demand response programs that can reduce energy demand when called on, while targeted utility procurement like the Edison bid can bolster capacity during peaks. Consumers should also listen for “Flex Alerts” that will notify them if voluntary conservation becomes necessary.

The average snow water content is 150 percent of historical average, good news for hydro-electricity supplies. However, the same El Niño weather pattern that gave California a wet year produced below normal precipitation in the Pacific Northwest. That will reduce overall imports from the region although there should be enough power supply available at key times to help meet California’s peak demand.

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