Octopus Energy and Ukraine's DTEK enter Energy Talks

U.S. Utility-Scale Solar Delays driven by the coronavirus pandemic threaten construction timelines, supply chains, and financing, with interconnection and commissioning setbacks, module sourcing risks in Southeast Asia, and tax credit deadline pressures impacting project delivery.

Key Points

Setbacks to large U.S. solar builds from COVID-19 impacting construction, supply, financing, and permitting.

✅ Construction, interconnection, commissioning site visits delayed

✅ Supply chain risks for modules from Southeast Asia

✅ Tax credit deadline extensions sought by developers

About 5 gigawatts (GW) of big U.S. solar energy projects, enough to power nearly 1 million homes, could suffer delays this year if construction is halted for months due to the coronavirus pandemic, as the Covid-19 crisis hits renewables across the sector, according to a report published on Wednesday.

The forecast, a worst-case scenario laid out in an analysis by energy research firm Wood Mackenzie, would amount to about a third of the utility-scale solar capacity expected to be installed in the United States this year, even as US solar and wind growth continues under favorable plans.

The report comes two weeks after the head of the top U.S. solar trade group called the coronavirus pandemic (as solar jobs decline nationwide) "a crisis here" for the industry. Solar and wind companies are pleading with Congress to extend deadlines for projects to qualify for sunsetting federal tax credits.

Even the firm’s best-case scenario would result in substantial delays, mirroring concerns that wind investments at risk across the industry. With up to four weeks of disruption, the outbreak will push out 2 GW of projects, or enough to power about 380,000 homes. Before factoring in the impact of the coronavirus, Wood Mackenzie had forecast 14.7 GW of utility-scale solar projects would be installed this year.

In its report, the firm said the projects are unlikely to be canceled outright. Rather, they will be pushed into the second half of 2020 or 2021. The analysis assumes that virus-related disruptions subside by the end of the third quarter.

Mid-stage projects that still have to secure financing and receive supplies are at the highest risk, Wood Mackenzie analyst Colin Smith said in an interview, adding that it was too soon to know whether the pandemic would end up altering long-term electricity demand and therefore utility procurement plans, where policy shifts such as an ITC extension could reshape priorities.

Currently, restricted travel is the most likely cause of project delays, the report said. Developers expect delays in physical site visits for interconnection and commissioning, and workers have had difficulty reaching remote construction sites.

For earlier-stage projects, municipal offices that process permits are closed and in-person meetings between developers and landowners or local officials have slowed down.

Most solar construction is proceeding despite stay at home orders in many states because it is considered critical infrastructure, and long-term proposals like a tenfold increase in solar could reshape the outlook, the report said, adding that “that could change with time.”

Risks to supplies of solar modules include potential manufacturing shutdowns in key producing nations in Southeast Asia such as Malaysia, Vietnam and Thailand. Thus far, solar module production has been identified as an essential business and has been allowed to continue.

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Alberta Rate of Last Resort provides a baseline electricity price, boosting energy reliability, affordability, and consumer protection amid market volatility, aligning with grid modernization, integration, pricing transparency, and oversight from the Alberta Utilities Commission.

Key Points

A fallback electricity rate ensuring affordable, reliable power and consumer protection during market volatility.

✅ Guarantees a stable baseline price when markets spike

✅ Supports vulnerable customers lacking competitive offers

✅ Overseen by AUC to balance protection and competition

The Alberta government has announced significant strides in its electricity market reforms, unveiling a new plan under new electricity rules that aims to enhance energy reliability and affordability for consumers. This initiative, highlighted by the introduction of a "rate of last resort," is a critical response to ongoing challenges in the province's electricity sector, particularly following recent market volatility and increasing consumer concerns about rising electricity prices across the province.

Understanding the Rate of Last Resort

The "rate of last resort" (RLR) is designed to ensure that all Albertans have access to affordable electricity, even when they face challenges securing a competitive rate in the open market. This measure is particularly beneficial for those who may not have the means or the knowledge to navigate complex energy contracts, such as low-income families or seniors.

Under this new plan, the RLR will serve as a safety net, guaranteeing a stable and predictable rate for customers who find themselves without a competitive provider. This move is seen as a crucial step in addressing the needs of vulnerable populations who might otherwise be at risk of being shut out of the energy market.

Market Volatility and Consumer Protection

Alberta's electricity market has faced significant fluctuations over the past few years, and is headed for a reshuffle as policymakers respond to unpredictability in pricing and service availability. The rise in energy costs has caused distress among consumers, with many advocating for stronger protections against sudden price hikes.

The government's recent decision to implement the RLR is a direct acknowledgment of these concerns. By creating a baseline rate, officials aim to provide consumers with peace of mind, knowing that there is a fallback option should market conditions turn unfavorable. This initiative complements other measures aimed at enhancing consumer protections, including improved transparency in pricing, the consumer price cap on power bills being advanced, and the regulation of energy suppliers.

Broader Implications for Alberta’s Energy Landscape

This plan is not only about consumer protection; it also represents a broader shift towards a more sustainable and stable energy market in Alberta, aligning with proposed electricity market changes under consideration. The introduction of the RLR is part of a comprehensive strategy that includes investments in renewable energy and infrastructure improvements. By modernizing the grid and promoting cleaner energy sources, the government aims to reduce dependency on fossil fuels while maintaining reliability and affordability.

Additionally, this move aligns with the province's goals to meet climate targets and transition to a more sustainable energy future as Alberta is changing how it produces and pays for electricity through policy updates. As the demand for clean energy grows, Alberta is positioning itself to be a leader in this transformation, appealing to both residents and businesses committed to sustainability.

Public and Industry Reactions

The announcement has garnered mixed reactions from various stakeholders. While consumer advocacy groups have largely praised the government's efforts to protect consumers and ensure affordable electricity, some industry experts express concerns about potential long-term impacts on competition, arguing the market needs competition to remain dynamic. They argue that while the RLR provides immediate relief, it could disincentivize companies from offering competitive rates, leading to a less dynamic market in the future.

The Alberta Utilities Commission (AUC) is expected to play a pivotal role in overseeing the implementation of the RLR, ensuring that it operates effectively and that any unintended consequences are addressed swiftly. This regulatory oversight will be crucial in balancing consumer protection with the need for a competitive energy market.

Conclusion

As Alberta forges ahead with its electricity market reforms, the introduction of the rate of last resort marks a significant step in enhancing consumer protection and ensuring energy affordability. While challenges remain, the government's proactive approach reflects a commitment to addressing the needs of all Albertans, particularly those most vulnerable to market fluctuations.

In this evolving energy landscape, the RLR will serve not only as a safety net for consumers but also as a foundation for a more sustainable and reliable electricity system. As Alberta continues to adapt to changing energy demands and climate considerations, the effectiveness of these measures will be closely monitored, shaping the future of the province’s electricity market.

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KHNP Shortlisted for Belene Nuclear Power Plant, named by the Bulgarian Energy Ministry alongside Rosatom and CNNC; highlights APR1400 reactor expertise, EPC credentials, and expansion into the European nuclear energy market.

Key Points

KHNP is a strategic investor candidate for Bulgaria's Belene NPP, leveraging APR1400 and European market entry.

✅ Selected with Rosatom and CNNC by Bulgarian Energy Ministry

✅ Builds on APR1400 reactor design and EPC track record

✅ Positions KHNP for EU nuclear projects and O&M services

Korea Hydro & Nuclear Power (KHNP) has been selected as one of the three strategic investor candidates for a Bulgarian nuclear power plant project amid global nuclear project milestones worldwide.

The Bulgarian Energy Ministry selected KHNP of Korea, RosAtom of Russia and CNNC of China as strategic investor candidates for the construction of the Belene Nuclear Power Plant, KHNP said on Dec. 20. The Belene Nuclear Power Plant is the second nuclear power plant that Bulgaria plans to build following the 2,000-megawatt Kozloduy Nuclear Power Plant built in 1991 during the Soviet Union era. The project budget is estimated at 10 billion euros.

By being included in the shortlist for the Bulgarian project, KHNP has boosted the possibility of making a foray into the European nuclear power plant market, as India takes steps to get nuclear back on track worldwide. KHNP began to export nuclear power plants in 2009 by winning the UAE Barakah Nuclear Power Plant Project, with Barakah Unit 1 reaching 100% power as it moves toward commercial operations. The UAE plant will be based on the APR1400, a next-generation Korean nuclear reactor that is used in Shin Kori Units 3 and 4 in Korea.

The ARP1400 is a Korean nuclear reactor developed by KHNP with investment of about 230 billion won for 10 years from 1992. The nuclear reactor became the first non-U.S. type reactor to receive a design certificate (DC) from the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), as China's nuclear energy program continues on a steady development track globally. By receiving the DC, its safety was internationally recognized. In June, the company also won the maintenance project for the Barakah Nuclear Power Plant, completing the entire cycle from the construction of the nuclear power plant to its design, operation and maintenance. However, U.S. and U.K. companies took part of the maintenance project for the nuclear power plant.

In July, KHNP officials visited Turkey and contacted local energy officials to prepare for nuclear power plant projects to be launched in that country, as Bangladesh develops nuclear power with IAEA assistance in the region. Earlier in May, the company also submitted a proposal to participate in the construction of a new nuclear power plant in Kazakhstan, while Kenya moves forward with plans for a $5 billion plant.

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California Net Zero Grid Investment will fuel electrification, renewable energy buildout, EV adoption, and grid modernization, boosting utilities, solar, and storage, while policy, IRA incentives, and transmission upgrades drive reliability and long-term rate base growth.

Key Points

Funding to electrify sectors and modernize the grid, scaling renewables, EVs, and storage to meet 2045 net zero goals.

✅ $370B over 22 years to meet 2045 net zero target

✅ Utilities lead gains via grid modernization and rate base growth

✅ EVs, solar, storage scale; IRA credits offset costs

$370 billion: That’s the investment Edison International CEO Pedro Pizarro says is needed for California’s power grid to meet the state’s “net zero” goal for CO2 emissions by 2045.

Getting there will require replacing fossil fuels with electricity in transportation, HVAC systems for buildings and industrial processes. Combined with population growth and data demand potentially augmented by artificial intelligence, that adds up to an 82 percent increase in electricity demand over 22 years, or 3 percent annually, and a potential looming shortage if buildout lags.

California’s plans also call for phasing out fossil fuel generation in the state, despite ongoing dependence on fossil power during peaks. And presumably, its last nuclear plant—PG&E Corp’s (PCG) Diablo Canyon—will be eventually be shuttered as well. So getting there also means trebling the state’s renewable energy generation and doubling usage of rooftop solar.

Assuming this investment is made, it’s relatively easy to put together a list of beneficiaries. Electric vehicles hit 20 percent market share in the state in Q2, even as pandemic-era demand shifts complicate load forecasting. And while competition from manufacturers has increased, leading manufacturers like Tesla TSLA -3% Inc (TSLA) can look forward to rising sales for some time—though that’s more than priced in for Elon Musk’s company at 65 times expected next 12 months earnings.

In the past year, California regulators have dialed back net metering through pricing changes affecting compensation, a subsidy previously paying rooftop solar owners premium prices for power sold back to the grid. That’s hit share prices of SunPower Corp (SPWR) and Sunrun Inc (RUN) quite hard, by further undermining business plans yet to demonstrate consistent profitability.

Nonetheless, these companies too can expect robust sales growth, as global prices for solar components drop and Inflation Reduction Act tax credits at least somewhat offset higher interest rates. And the combination of IRA tax credits and U.S. tariff walls will continue to boost sales at solar manufacturers like JinkoSolar Holding (JKS).

The surest, biggest beneficiaries of California’s drive to Net Zero are the utilities, reflecting broader utility trends in grid modernization, with investment increasing earnings and dividends. And as the state’s largest pure electric company, Edison has the clearest path.

Edison is currently requesting California regulators OK recovery over a 30-year period of $2.4 billion in losses related to 2017 wildfires. Assuming a amicable decision by early next year, management can then turn its attention to upgrading the grid. That investment is expected to generate long-term rate base growth of 8 percent at year, fueling 5 to 7 percent annual earnings growth through 2028 with commensurate dividend increases.

That’s a strong value proposition Edison stock, with trades at just 14 times expected next 12 months earnings. The yield of roughly 4.4 percent at current prices was increased 5.4 percent this year and is headed for a similar boost in December.

When California deregulated electricity in 1996, it required utilities with rare exceptions to divest their power generation. As a result, Edison’s growth opportunity is 100 percent upgrading its transmission and distribution grid. And its projects can typically be proposed, sited, permitted and built in less than a year, limiting risk of cost overruns to ensure regulatory approval and strong investment returns.

Edison’s investment plan is also pretty much immune to an unlikely backtracking on Net Zero goals by the state. And the company has a cost argument as well: Dr Pizarro cites U.S. Department of Energy and Department of Transportation data to project inflation-adjusted savings of 40 percent in California’s total customer energy bills from full electrification.

There’s even a reason to believe 40 percent savings will prove conservative. Mainly, gasoline currently accounts for a bit more than half energy expenditures. And after a more than 10-year global oil and gas investment drought, supplies are likely get tighter and prices possibly much higher in coming years.

Of course, those savings will only show up after significant investment is made. At this point, no major utility system in the world runs on 100 percent renewable energy, and California’s blackout politics underscore how reliability concerns shape deployment. And the magnitude of storage technology needed to overcome intermittency in solar and wind generation is not currently available let alone affordable, though both cost and efficiency are advancing.

Taking EVs from 20 to 100 percent of California’s new vehicle sales calls for a similar leap in efficiency and cost, even with generous federal and state subsidy. And while technology to fully electrify buildings and homes is there, economically retrofitting statewide is almost certainly going to be a slog.

At the end of the day, political will is likely to be as important as future technological advance for how much of Pizarro’s $370 billion actually gets spent. And the same will be true across the U.S., with state governments and regulators still by and large calling the shots for how electricity gets generated, transmitted and distributed—as well as who pays for it and how much, even as California’s exported policies influence Western markets.

Ironically, the one state where investors don’t need to worry about renewable energy’s prospects is one of the currently reddest politically. That’s Florida, where NextEra Energy NEE +2.8% (NEE) and other utilities can dramatically cut costs to customers and boost reliability by deploying solar and energy storage.

You won’t hear management asserting it can run the Sunshine State on 100 percent renewable energy, as utilities and regulators do in some of the bluer parts of the country. But by demonstrating the cost and reliability argument for solar deployment, NextEra is also making the case why its stock is America’s highest percentage bet on renewables’ growth—particularly at a time when all things energy are unfortunately becoming increasingly, intensely political.

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Pumped Storage Hydroelectricity balances renewable energy, stabilizes the grid, and provides large-scale energy storage using reservoirs and reversible turbines, delivering flexible peak power, frequency control, and rapid response to variable wind and solar generation.

Key Points

A reversible hydro system that stores energy by pumping water uphill, then generates flexible peak power.

✅ Balances variable wind and solar with rapid ramping

✅ Stores off-peak electricity in upper reservoirs

✅ Enhances grid stability, frequency control, and reserves

The expense of hydroelectricity is moderately low, making it a serious wellspring of sustainable power. The hydro station burns-through no water, dissimilar to coal or gas plants. The commonplace expense of power from a hydro station bigger than 10 megawatts is 3 to 5 US pennies for every kilowatt hour, and Niagara Falls powerhouse upgrade projects show how modernization can further improve efficiency and reliability. With a dam and supply it is likewise an adaptable wellspring of power, since the sum delivered by the station can be shifted up or down quickly (as meager as a couple of moments) to adjust to changing energy requests.

When a hydroelectric complex is developed, the task creates no immediate waste, and it for the most part has an extensively lower yield level of ozone harming substances than photovoltaic force plants and positively petroleum product fueled energy plants, with calls to invest in hydropower highlighting these benefits. In open-circle frameworks, unadulterated pumped storage plants store water in an upper repository with no normal inflows, while pump back plants use a blend of pumped storage and regular hydroelectric plants with an upper supply that is renewed to a limited extent by common inflows from a stream or waterway.

Plants that don't utilize pumped capacity are alluded to as ordinary hydroelectric plants, and initiatives focused on repowering existing dams continue to expand clean generation; regular hydroelectric plants that have critical capacity limit might have the option to assume a comparable function in the electrical lattice as pumped capacity by conceding yield until required.

The main use for pumped capacity has customarily been to adjust baseload powerplants, however may likewise be utilized to decrease the fluctuating yield of discontinuous fuel sources, while emerging gravity energy storage concepts broaden long-duration options. Pumped capacity gives a heap now and again of high power yield and low power interest, empowering extra framework top limit.

In specific wards, power costs might be near zero or once in a while negative on events that there is more electrical age accessible than there is load accessible to retain it; despite the fact that at present this is infrequently because of wind or sunlight based force alone, expanded breeze and sun oriented age will improve the probability of such events.

All things considered, pumped capacity will turn out to be particularly significant as an equilibrium for exceptionally huge scope photovoltaic age. Increased long-distance bandwidth, including hydropower imports from Canada, joined with huge measures of energy stockpiling will be a critical piece of directing any enormous scope sending of irregular inexhaustible force sources. The high non-firm inexhaustible power entrance in certain districts supplies 40% of yearly yield, however 60% might be reached before extra capaciy is fundamental.

Pumped capacity plants can work with seawater, despite the fact that there are extra difficulties contrasted with utilizing new water. Initiated in 1966, the 240 MW Rance flowing force station in France can incompletely function as a pumped storage station. At the point when elevated tides happen at off-top hours, the turbines can be utilized to pump more seawater into the repository than the elevated tide would have normally gotten. It is the main enormous scope power plant of its sort.

Alongside energy mechanism, pumped capacity frameworks help control electrical organization recurrence and give save age. Warm plants are substantially less ready to react to abrupt changes in electrical interest, and can see higher thermal PLF during periods of reduced hydro generation, conceivably causing recurrence and voltage precariousness.

Pumped storage plants, as other hydroelectric plants, including new BC generating stations, can react to stack changes in practically no time. Pumped capacity hydroelectricity permits energy from discontinuous sources, (for example, sunlight based, wind) and different renewables, or abundance power from consistent base-load sources, (for example, coal or atomic) to be put something aside for times of more popularity.

The repositories utilized with siphoned capacity are tiny when contrasted with ordinary hydroelectric dams of comparable force limit, and creating periods are regularly not exactly a large portion of a day. This technique produces power to gracefully high top requests by moving water between repositories at various heights.

Now and again of low electrical interest, the abundance age limit is utilized to pump water into the higher store. At the point when the interest gets more noteworthy, water is delivered once more into the lower repository through a turbine. Pumped capacity plans at present give the most monetarily significant methods for enormous scope matrix energy stockpiling and improve the every day limit factor of the age framework. Pumped capacity isn't a fuel source, and shows up as a negative number in postings.

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Ukraine Power Grid Resilience details preparations for winter blackouts, airstrike defense, decentralized generation, backup generators, battery storage, DTEK restorations, EU grid synchronization, and upgraded air defenses to safeguard electricity, heating, water, and essential services.

Key Points

Ukraine Power Grid Resilience is a strategy to harden energy systems against winter attacks and outages.

✅ DTEK repairs, backup equipment, and fortified plants across Ukraine

✅ Expanded air defenses targeting missiles and attack drones

✅ EU grid sync enables emergency imports and power trading

Oleksandr Gindyuk is determined not to be caught off guard if electricity supplies fail again this winter. When Russia pounded Ukraine’s power grid with widespread and repeated waves of airstrikes last year, causing massive rolling blackouts, his wife had just given birth to their second daughter.

“It was quite difficult,”  Gindyuk, who lives with his family in the suburbs of the capital, Kyiv, told CNN. “There is no life in our house if there is no electricity. Without electricity, we have no water, light or heating.”

He has spent the summer preparing for Russia to repeat its strategy, which was designed to sow terror and make life unsustainable, robbing Ukrainians of heat, water and health services. “We are totally ready — we have a diesel generator and a powerful 9 kWh battery. We are not scared, we are ready,” Gindyuk told CNN.

As families like Gindyuk’s gird themselves for the possibility of another dark winter, Ukraine has been rushing to rebuild and, drawing on protecting the grid lessons, protect its fragile energy infrastructure.

The summer provided a respite for Ukraine’s power grid. Russia focused its attacks on military targets and on ports on the Black Sea and the Danube River, to hinder Ukraine’s efforts to move grain and choke off an important income stream.

As the days grow shorter and the temperatures drop, Russia has another opportunity to try to break Ukrainian resilience with punishing blackouts. But this winter, defense and energy officials say Ukraine is better prepared.

With limited Ukrainian air defenses in operation last year, Russia was able to target and hit the energy grid easily, including during missile and drone assaults on Kyiv’s grid that strained responders.

“The Russians may use a combination of missile weapons and attack UAVs (unmanned aerial vehicles, or drones). These will definitely not be such primitive attacks as last year. It will be difficult for the Russians to achieve a result - we are also preparing and understanding how they act.”

DTEK, the country’s largest private energy company, has spent the past seven months restoring infrastructure, trying to boost output and bolstering defenses at its facilities across Ukraine, mindful of Russian utility hacks reported elsewhere.

“We restored what could be restored, bought back-up equipment and installed defenses around power plants, as Russian-linked breaches at US plants have underscored risks,” DTEK chief executive Maxim Timchenko told CNN.

The company generates around a quarter of Ukraine’s electricity and runs 40% of its grid network, making it a prime target for Russian attacks. Four DTEK employees have been killed while on duty and its power stations have been attacked nearly 300 times since the start of the full-scale invasion, according to the company. “Last winter, determination carried us through. This winter we are stronger, and our people are more experienced,” Timchenko said.

Russia launched 1,200 attacks on Ukraine’s energy system between October 2022 and April 2023, with every thermal power and hydro-electric plant in the country sustaining some damage, according to DTEK.

In a damage assessment report released in June, the United Nations Development Programme said that Ukraine’s power generation capacity had been reduced to about half of what it was before Russia’s full-scale invasion. “Ukraine’s power system continues to operate in an emergency mode, which affects both power grids and generation, amid rising concerns about state-backed grid hacking worldwide,” a news release accompanying the report said.

The report also laid out a roadmap to rebuilding the energy sector, prioritizing decentralization, renewable energy sources and greater integration with the European Union. Ukraine has been hooked into the EU’s power grid since the full-scale invasion, allowing it to synchronize and trade power with the bloc. But the massive wave of attacks on energy infrastructure last winter threw that balance off kilter.

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