South DakotaÂ’s energy boom too much too soon?

By The Daily Republic


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As South Dakota continues an energy boom that began a decade ago, Don Carr watches from afar and says this state's residents may be getting in too deep too fast.

Since the ethanol boom began a decade ago, South Dakota has become home to 16 ethanol plants.

The state was once home to only a handful of individual wind turbines, but since the construction of the state's first large wind farm in 2003, four large wind farms have been constructed with at least another three under way or scheduled for construction. In the past 18 months, the amount of wind power in South Dakota has increased by 700 percent, producing approximately 285 megawatts of wind production capacity.

TransCanada, a Canadian oil company, is at present constructing its Keystone pipeline through the eastern portion of the state on its way to refineries in Oklahoma and Illinois.

Another TransCanada line, the Keystone XL, is proposed to be buried in central and western South Dakota.

The proposed Hyperion project may eventually see a huge oil refinery constructed in the extreme southeast corner of South Dakota, near Elk Point.

Energy proponents proudly note the quick development the state has seen, landowners are collecting payments from use of their property, and public entities such as school districts will get some of the collected tax revenue.

But some people have concerns about the state's rapid progress of energy development.

"Industry wants things to happen fast (and) a lot of times, environmental concerns and safeguards are an afterthought," said Carr, press secretary for agriculture and public lands for an organization called the Environmental Working Group. Carr also is a former communications director for the South Dakota Democratic National Committee. "We are constantly fighting the idea that environmental safeguards come second."

The debate about South Dakota's energy boom has caused something of a split. Both sides of the issue, and the political spectrum, wonder about the speed with which the state should embrace new energy industries.

Paul Blackburn, staff attorney for Plains Justice in Vermillion, a public interest law center that focuses on environmental issues, said he believes South Dakota's renewable energy advancements still lag behind neighboring states like Iowa and Minnesota.

"Relative to other states in the region, South Dakota has very little installed wind capacity," Blackburn said. "South Dakota is lagging way behind some other states in terms of its development."

Part of that relates to the national economy, he said, but the oft-discussed lack of transmission capacity also plays a role.

"I think that South Dakota should look into allowing more South Dakotans to sell their product via the wires that currently exist to customers in other states rather than having those wires be continually maintained for an exclusive use of fossil fuel interests," he said.

Sen. John Thune, R-S.D., also would like to see South Dakota progress faster.

"I would argue that we haven't moved fast enough," said Thune, who has long been a key figure behind energy development in the state. "There is so much pent-up opportunity in South Dakota for wind."

While alternative energy sources like wind may be embraced by many as the future of energy production, opinions on the pace and methods of such advancement differ throughout the state.

South Dakota Public Utilities Commissioner Dusty Johnson said the general consensus is that South Dakota should move faster to bring certain industries — wind farms, for instance — to the state.

The amount of channeled wind power in the state has increased 700 percent in the last 18 months, Johnson said, and work is continuing to lay groundwork for new wind farm projects.

As the process of constructing new wind farms in the state continues, Johnson said he hasn't fielded many complaints from residents concerned about the rate of progress.

"We haven't heard a lot from people who think we're moving too quickly," Johnson said. "By and large, we're hearing from people who would like to see the state move faster."

Johnson said the state was farsighted in preparing for companies interested in erecting wind farms in the area. Legally, wind rights can't be severed from property rights, nor do property owners legally sign an easement for more than 50 years.

Easement options also expire after five years, which prevents landowners from "signing up with the wrong developer and getting locked up for (numerous) years," Johnson said.

Members of the Legislature may soon hear from those who feel that such options actually give the landowner too much power over energy companies.

Johnson said developers have recently started to voice concerns about the five-year option expiration, and he expects to see the issue come up during the next legislative session.

"Some developers think that five-year window is too short because it takes so long to build this many massive, multimillion dollar facilities," Johnson said. "(There) will absolutely be legislation addressing that."

While Blackburn believes that South Dakota has a good amount of untapped renewable energy potential, he is concerned that residents aren't getting their due.

"There's been a long history in South Dakota of the wealth of the state being pulled outside the state by people or organizations that live outside South Dakota," Blackburn said. "It is quite possible for the wealth that's generated by wind and renewable energy development to end up outside the state."

Thune would like to see wind energy start to emulate the ethanol industry by having more local ownership.

The passage of a renewable energy standard by Congress and an improved economy could seriously boost the chances of such an increase.

"I'm very optimistic. Economics continue to improve as technology gets better," Thune said. "Those things are only creating forward momentum for wind energy in South Dakota."

Thune acknowledged that transmission issues continue to be the biggest hindrance to the growth of wind energy in South Dakota, but he's hopeful the future will hold the solution to the transmission capacity problem and make South Dakota "the Saudi Arabia of wind."

Blackburn believes that some transmission concerns could be solved using existing wires. He'd like to see independent studies conducted on the state's current transmission structure. It's also important to Blackburn that South Dakotans learn more about wind and other renewable energies and contact state regulators to ask for more efficient means of delivery.

"They need to... encourage the regulators to promote these solutions," Blackburn said. "I think that sometimes the state regulators focus so much on rate that they don't think about the actual cost of power to the customers."

Since the boom of ethanol production began in South Dakota, 16 plants have been constructed, including Poet Biorefining near Loomis, which, according to Johnson, "is doing some of the best research in the world on cellulosic ethanol."

But Jim Margadant, regional conservation organizer for the South Dakota Chapter of the Sierra Club in Rapid City, is hoping South Dakota will place a stronger focus on cleaner energy sources, such as wind, instead of fuels that leave a larger carbon footprint.

Margadant expects water to become "more and more precious" as time goes on. Since biofuel manufacturers are large consumers of water, ethanol production may prove to be an increasingly inefficient source of energy, he said.

"Our state is kind of clinging to assisting and developing an energy policy that is pretty carbon dependent and it leaves a pretty dirty footprint," Margadant said. "That is not the way of the future."

Carr acknowledges that ethanol has been good for South Dakota's economy, but he's still waiting for proof that the federally subsidized industry is environmentally friendly. That, Thune said, is "bogus science."

"There is no question that ethanol is better environmentally than traditional fuels," Thune said. "You cannot tell me that something that comes from a product like corn isn't better than something that comes from petroleum for the environment."

As for the question of subsidies, Thune said the amount saved by not having to pay as many countercyclical and loan deficiency payments to farmers because of increased corn prices is much more than the tax incentives offered.

More wind farms can mean less reliance on other, more carbon-heavy, methods of energy production, Carr said.

Carr is concerned that increasing acres of fuel crops such as corn reduces the number of conservation acres, like those in the Conservation Reserve Program.

That, he said, also could have detrimental effects on the environment.

"The worry is... that when land is taken out of CRP or these other conservation programs and plowed under and used to plant fuel crops, those lands are not replaced," Carr said. "When you plow them under, you release carbon in the atmosphere and you also take away land that cannot sequester carbon."

Thune, a longtime advocate of increasing CRP acres in South Dakota, said he's concerned about the decreased number of CRP acres but doesn't believe ethanol is a major factor. The increased price of corn simply makes it more logical for farmers to plant corn instead of enroll in the program, he said.

"I don't think you can say that because of ethanol, everybody's pulling their land out of CRP," Thune said.

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FortisAlberta Takes Necessary Precautions to Provide Electricity Service for Alberta

FortisAlberta COVID-19 response delivers safe electricity distribution across Alberta, with remote monitoring, 24/7 support, outage alerts, dispersed crews, and business continuity measures to sustain essential services for customers and communities.

 

Key Points

Plan ensuring reliable electricity in Alberta through 24/7 support, remote monitoring, outage alerts, and dispersed crews.

✅ 24/7 customer support via 310-WIRE and mobile app

✅ Remote monitoring and rapid outage restoration

✅ Dispersed crews in 50 communities for faster response

 

As the COVID-19 pandemic continues to evolve in Alberta (and around the world), FortisAlberta is taking the necessary actions and precautions informed by utility disaster planning to protect the health and well-being of its employees and to provide electricity service to its customers. FortisAlberta serves more than half a million customers with the electricity they depend on to take care of their families and community members throughout our province.

"We recognize these are challenging times as while most Albertans are asked to stay home others continue to work in the community to provide essential services, including utility workers in Ontario demonstrating support efforts. As your electricity distribution provider, please be assured you can count on us to do what we do best – provide our customers with safe and reliable electricity service wherever and whenever they need it," says Michael Mosher, FortisAlberta President and CEO.

FortisAlberta is proud to be a part of the communities it serves and commits to keeping the lights on for its customers. The company is providing a full range of services for its customers and has instilled best practices within critical parts of its business. The company's control centre continues to remotely monitor, control, and restore, where possible, the delivery of power across the entire province, including during events such as an Alberta grid alert that stress the system. Early in March, FortisAlberta implemented its business continuity plan and the company remains fully accessible to customers 24/7 by phone at 310-WIRE (9473) or through its mobile app where customers can report outages online or view details of an outage. Customers can also sign up for outage alerts to their mobile phone and/or email address to let them know if an outage does occur.

FortisAlberta's power line employees are geographically dispersed across 50 different communities so they can quickly address any issues that may arise. The company has implemented work from home measures and isolation best practices, and is planning for potential on-site lockdowns where necessary to ensure no disruption to customers.

FortisAlberta will continue to remain in close communication with its stakeholders to provide updates to customers and with industry associations to share guidance specific to the electricity sector, including insights on the evolving U.S. grid response to COVID-19 from peer utilities. FortisAlberta will also continue to invest in and empower its communities by contributing to organizations that offer programs and services aligned with the greatest needs in the communities it serves.

With the Alberta Government's recent announcement to provide relief to eligible Albertans by deferring electricity and gas charges for up to 90 days, similar to some B.C. relief measures being implemented, FortisAlberta is committed to working with stakeholders and retail partners to ensure this option is available to customers quickly and efficiently, and to learn from initiatives like the Hydro One relief fund that support customers.

 

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UK EV Drivers Demand Fairer Vehicle Taxes

UK EV Per-Mile Taxes are reshaping road pricing and vehicle taxation for electric cars, raising fairness concerns, climate policy questions, and funding needs for infrastructure and charging networks across the country.

 

Key Points

They are per-mile road charges on EVs to fund infrastructure, raising fairness, emissions, and vehicle taxation concerns.

✅ Propose tax relief or credits for EV owners

✅ Consider emission-based road user charging

✅ Invest in charging networks and road infrastructure

 

As the UK continues its push towards a greener future with increased adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) and surging EV interest during supply disruptions, a growing number of electric car drivers are voicing their frustration over the current tax system. The debate centers around the per-mile vehicle taxes that are being proposed and implemented, which many argue are unfairly burdensome on EV owners. This issue has sparked a broader campaign advocating for a more equitable approach to vehicle taxation, one that reflects the evolving landscape of transportation and environmental policy.

Rising Costs for Electric Car Owners

Electric vehicles have been hailed as a crucial component in the UK’s strategy to reduce carbon emissions and combat climate change. Government incentives, such as grants for EV purchases and tax breaks, have been instrumental in encouraging the shift from petrol and diesel cars to cleaner alternatives, even as affordability concerns persist among many UK consumers. However, as the number of electric vehicles on the road grows, the financial dynamics of vehicle taxation are coming under scrutiny.

One of the key issues is the introduction and increase of per-mile vehicle taxes. While these taxes are designed to account for road usage and infrastructure costs, they have been met with resistance from EV drivers who argue that they are being disproportionately affected. Unlike traditional combustion engine vehicles, electric cars typically have lower running costs compared to petrol or diesel models and, in many cases, benefit from lower or zero emissions. Yet, the current tax system does not always reflect these advantages.

The Taxation Debate

The crux of the debate lies in how vehicle taxes are structured and implemented. Per-mile taxes are intended to ensure that all road users contribute fairly to the maintenance of transport infrastructure. However, the implementation of such taxes has raised concerns about fairness and affordability, particularly for those who have invested heavily in electric vehicles.

Critics argue that per-mile taxes do not adequately take into account the environmental benefits of driving an electric car, noting that the net impact depends on the electricity generation mix in each market. While EV owners are contributing to a cleaner environment by reducing emissions, they are also facing higher taxes that could undermine the financial benefits of their greener choice. This has led to calls for a reassessment of the tax system to ensure that it aligns with the UK’s climate goals and provides a fair deal for electric vehicle drivers.

Campaigns for Fairer Taxation

In response to these concerns, several advocacy groups and individual EV owners have launched campaigns calling for a more balanced approach to vehicle taxation. These campaigns emphasize the need for a system that supports the transition to electric vehicles and recognizes their role in reducing environmental impact, drawing on ambitious EV targets abroad as useful benchmarks.

Key proposals from these campaigns include:

  1. Tax Relief for EV Owners: Advocates suggest providing targeted tax relief for electric vehicle owners to offset the costs of per-mile taxes. This could include subsidies or tax credits that acknowledge the environmental benefits of EVs and help to make up for higher road usage fees.

  2. Emission-Based Taxation: An alternative approach is to design vehicle taxes based on emissions rather than mileage. This system would ensure that those driving high-emission vehicles contribute more to road maintenance, while EV owners, who are already reducing emissions, are not penalized.

  3. Infrastructure Investments: Campaigners also call for increased investments in infrastructure that supports electric vehicles, such as charging networks and proper grid management practices that balance load. This would help to address concerns about the adequacy of current road maintenance and support the growing number of EVs on the road.

Government Response and Future Directions

The UK government faces the challenge of balancing revenue needs with environmental goals. While there is recognition of the need to update the tax system in light of increasing EV adoption, there is also a focus on ensuring that any changes are equitable and do not disincentivize the shift towards cleaner vehicles, while considering whether the UK grid can handle additional EV demand reliably.

Discussions are ongoing about how to best implement changes that address the concerns of electric vehicle owners while ensuring that the transportation infrastructure remains adequately funded. The outcome of these discussions will be critical in shaping the future of vehicle taxation in the UK and supporting the country’s broader environmental objectives.

Conclusion

As electric vehicle adoption continues to rise in the UK, the debate over vehicle taxation becomes increasingly important. The campaign for fairer per-mile taxes highlights the need for a tax system that supports the transition to cleaner transportation while also being fair to those who have made environmentally conscious choices. Balancing these factors will be key to achieving the UK’s climate goals and ensuring that all road users contribute equitably to the maintenance of transport infrastructure. The ongoing dialogue and policy adjustments will play a crucial role in shaping a sustainable and just future for transportation in the UK.

 

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TransAlta Scraps Wind Farm as Alberta's Energy Future Blusters

Alberta Wind Energy Policy Changes highlight TransAlta's Riplinger cancellation amid UCP buffer zones for pristine viewscapes, regulatory uncertainty, and market redesign debates, reshaping Alberta's renewables investment climate and clean energy diversification plans.

 

Key Points

UCP rules and market shifts reshaping wind siting, permits, and finance, increasing uncertainty and delays for new projects.

✅ 35-km buffer near pristine viewscapes limits wind siting

✅ TransAlta cancels 300 MW Riplinger project

✅ Market redesign uncertainty chills renewables investment

 

The winds of change are blowing through Alberta's energy landscape today, and they're not necessarily carrying good news for renewable energy development. TransAlta, a major Canadian energy company, recently announced the cancellation of a significant wind farm project, citing a confluence of factors that create uncertainty for the future of wind power in the province. This decision throws a spotlight on the ongoing debate between responsible development and fostering a clean energy future in Alberta.

The scrapped project, the Riplinger wind farm near Cardston, Alberta, was envisioned as a 300-megawatt facility capable of providing clean electricity to the province. However, TransAlta pointed to recent regulatory changes implemented by the United Conservative Party (UCP) government, following the end of the renewable energy moratorium in Alberta, as a key reason for the project's demise. These changes include the establishment of a 35-kilometer buffer zone around designated "pristine viewscapes," which significantly restricts potential wind farm locations.

John Kousinioris, CEO of TransAlta, expressed frustration with the lack of clarity surrounding the future of renewable energy policy in Alberta. He highlighted this, along with the aforementioned rule changes, as major factors in the project's cancellation. TransAlta has also placed three other power projects on hold, indicating a broader concern about the current investment climate for renewable energy in the province.

The news has been met with mixed reactions. While some residents living near the proposed wind farm site celebrate the decision due to concerns about potential impacts on tourism and the environment, others worry about the implications for Alberta's clean energy ambitions, including renewable energy job growth in the province. The province, a major energy producer in Canada, has traditionally relied heavily on fossil fuels, and this decision might be seen as a setback for its goals of diversifying its energy mix.

The Alberta government defends its changes to renewable energy policy, arguing that they are necessary to ensure responsible development and protect sensitive ecological areas. However, the TransAlta decision raises questions about the potential unintended consequences of these changes. Critics argue that the restrictions might discourage investment in renewable energy and the province's ability to sell clean power to wider markets altogether, hindering Alberta's progress towards a more sustainable future.

Adding to the uncertainty is the ongoing process of redesigning Alberta's energy market. The aim is to incorporate more renewable energy sources, including solar energy expansion across the grid, but the details of this redesign remain unclear. This lack of transparency makes it difficult for companies like TransAlta to make sound investment decisions, further dampening enthusiasm for renewable energy projects.

The future of wind energy development in Alberta remains to be seen. TransAlta's decision to scrap the Riplinger project is a significant development, and it will be interesting to observe how other companies respond to the changing regulatory landscape, as a Warren Buffett-linked developer pursues a $200 million wind project in Alberta. Striking a balance between responsible development, protecting the environment, and fostering a clean energy future will be a crucial challenge for Alberta moving forward.

This situation highlights the complex considerations involved in transitioning to a renewable energy future, where court rulings on wind projects can influence policy and investment decisions. While environmental concerns are paramount, ensuring a stable and predictable investment climate is equally important. Open communication and collaboration between industry, government, and stakeholders will be key to navigating these challenges and ensuring Alberta can harness the power of wind energy for a sustainable future.

 

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UK Renewable Energy Auction: Boost for Wind and Tidal Power

UK Wind and Tidal Power Auction signals strong CfD support for offshore wind, tidal stream projects, investor certainty, and clean electricity, accelerating the net-zero transition, boosting jobs, and strengthening UK energy security and grid integration.

 

Key Points

A CfD auction awarding contracts for wind and tidal projects to scale clean power and advance UK net-zero.

✅ Offshore wind dominates CfD awards

✅ Tidal stream gains predictable, reliable capacity

✅ Jobs, investment, and grid integration accelerate

 

In a significant development for the UK’s renewable energy sector, the latest auction for renewable energy contracts has underscored a transformative shift towards wind and tidal power. As reported by The Guardian, the auction results reveal a strong commitment to expanding these technologies, with new contracts adding 10 GW to the UK grid, marking a pivotal moment in the UK’s transition to cleaner energy sources.

The Auction’s Impact

The renewable energy auction, which took place recently, has allocated contracts for a substantial increase in wind and tidal power projects. This auction, part of the UK’s Contracts for Difference (CfD) scheme, is designed to support the development of low-carbon energy technologies by providing financial certainty to investors. By offering fixed prices for the electricity generated by these projects, the CfD scheme aims to stimulate investment and accelerate the deployment of renewable energy sources.

The latest results are particularly notable for the significant share of contracts awarded to offshore wind farms and tidal power projects, highlighting how offshore wind is powering up the UK as policy and investment priorities continue to shift. This marks a shift from previous auctions, where solar power and onshore wind were the dominant technologies. The move towards supporting offshore wind and tidal power reflects the UK’s strategic focus on harnessing its abundant natural resources to drive the transition to a low-carbon energy system.

Offshore Wind Power: A Major Contributor

Offshore wind power has emerged as a major player in the UK’s renewable energy landscape, within a global market projected to become a $1 trillion business over the coming decades. The recent auction results highlight the continued growth and investment in this sector.

The UK has been a global leader in offshore wind development, with several large-scale projects already operational and more in the pipeline. The auction has further cemented this position, underscoring what the U.S. can learn from the U.K. in scaling offshore wind capacity, with new projects set to contribute significantly to the country’s renewable energy capacity. These projects are expected to deliver substantial amounts of clean electricity, supporting the UK’s goal of achieving net-zero emissions by 2050.

Tidal Power: An Emerging Frontier

Tidal power, although less developed compared to wind and solar, is gaining momentum as a promising renewable energy source, with companies harnessing oceans and rivers to demonstrate practical potential. The auction results have allocated contracts to several tidal power projects, signaling growing recognition of the potential of this technology.

Tidal power harnesses the energy from tidal movements and currents, which are highly predictable and consistent, and a market outlook for wave and tidal energy points to emerging growth drivers and investment. This makes it a reliable complement to intermittent sources like wind and solar power. The inclusion of tidal power projects in the auction reflects the UK’s commitment to diversifying its renewable energy portfolio and exploring all available options for achieving energy security and sustainability.

Economic and Environmental Benefits

The expansion of wind and tidal power projects through the recent auction offers numerous economic and environmental benefits. From an economic perspective, these projects are expected to create thousands of jobs in construction, maintenance, and manufacturing. They also stimulate investment in local economies and support the growth of the green technology sector.

Environmentally, the increased deployment of wind and tidal power contributes to significant reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. Offshore wind farms and tidal power projects produce clean electricity with minimal environmental impact, helping to mitigate the effects of climate change and improve air quality.

Challenges and Future Outlook

Despite the positive outcomes of the auction, there are challenges to address. Offshore wind farms and tidal power projects require substantial upfront investment and face technical and logistical challenges. Issues such as grid integration, environmental impact assessments, and supply chain constraints need to be carefully managed to ensure the successful deployment of these projects.

Looking ahead, the UK’s renewable energy strategy will continue to evolve as new technologies and innovations emerge, and growth despite Covid-19 underscores sector resilience. The success of the latest auction demonstrates the growing confidence in wind and tidal power and sets the stage for further advancements in renewable energy.

The UK government’s commitment to supporting these technologies through initiatives like the CfD scheme is crucial for achieving long-term energy and climate goals. As the country progresses towards its net-zero target, the continued expansion of wind and tidal power will play a key role in shaping a sustainable and resilient energy future.

Conclusion

The latest renewable energy auction represents a significant milestone in the UK’s transition to a low-carbon energy system. By awarding contracts to wind and tidal power projects, the auction underscores the country’s commitment to harnessing diverse and reliable sources of renewable energy. The expansion of offshore wind and the emerging role of tidal power highlight the UK’s strategic approach to achieving energy security, reducing emissions, and driving economic growth. As the renewable energy sector continues to evolve, the UK remains at the forefront of global efforts to build a sustainable and clean energy future.

 

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Opinion: UK Natural Gas, Rising Prices and Electricity

European Energy Market Crisis drives record natural gas and electricity prices across the EU, as LNG supply constraints, Russian pipeline dependence, marginal pricing, and renewables integration expose volatility in liberalised power markets.

 

Key Points

A 2021 surge in European gas and electricity prices from supply strains, demand rebounds, and marginal pricing exposure.

✅ Record TTF gas and day-ahead power prices across Europe

✅ LNG constraints and Russian pipeline dependence tightened supply

✅ Debate over marginal pricing vs regulated models intensifies

 

By Ronan Bolton

The year 2021 was a turbulent one for energy markets across Europe, as Europe's energy nightmare deepened across the region. Skyrocketing natural gas prices have created a sense of crisis and will lead to cost-of-living problems for many households, as wholesale costs feed through into retail prices for gas and electricity over the coming months.

This has created immediate challenges for governments, but it should also encourage us to rethink the fundamental design of our energy markets as we seek to transition to net zero, with many viewing it as a wake-up call to ditch fossil fuels across the bloc.

This energy crisis was driven by a combination of factors: the relaxation of Covid-19 lockdowns across Europe created a surge in demand, while cold weather early in the year diminished storage levels and contributed to increasing demand from Asian economies. A number of technical issues and supply-side constraints also combined to limit imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) into the continent.

Europe’s reliance on pipeline imports from Russia has once again been called into question, as Gazprom has refused to ride to the rescue, only fulfilling its pre-existing contracts. The combination of these, and other, factors resulted in record prices – the European benchmark price (the Dutch TTF Gas Futures Contract) reached almost €180/MWh on 21 December, with average day-ahead electricity prices exceeding €300/MWh across much of the continent in the following days.

Countries which rely heavily on natural gas as a source of electricity generation have been particularly exposed, with governments quickly put under pressure to intervene in the market.

In Spain the government and large energy companies have clashed over a proposed windfall tax on power producers. In Ireland, where wind and gas meet much of the country’s surging electricity demand, the government is proposing a €100 rebate for all domestic energy consumers in early 2022; while the UK government is currently negotiating a sector-wide bailout of the energy supply sector and considering ending the gas-electricity price link to curb bills.

This follows the collapse of a number of suppliers who had based their business models on attracting customers with low prices by buying cheap on the spot market. The rising wholesale prices, combined with the retail price cap previously introduced by the Theresa May government, led to their collapse.

While individual governments have little control over prices in an increasingly globalised and interconnected natural gas market, they can exert influence over electricity prices as these markets remain largely national and strongly influenced by domestic policy and regulation. Arising from this, the intersection of gas and power markets has become a key site of contestation and comment about the role of government in mitigating the impacts on consumers of rising fuel bills, even as several EU states oppose major reforms amid the price spike.

Given that renewables are constituting an ever-greater share of production capacity, many are now questioning why gas prices play such a determining role in electricity markets.

As I outline in my forthcoming book, Making Energy Markets, a particular feature of the ‘European model’ of liberalised electricity trade since the 1990s has been a reliance on spot markets to improve the efficiency of electricity systems. The idea was that high marginal prices – often set by expensive-to-run gas peaking plants – would signal when capacity limits are reached, providing clear incentives to consumers to reduce or delay demand at these peak periods.

This, in theory, would lead to an overall more efficient system, and in the long run, if average prices exceeded the costs of entering the market, new investments would be made, thus pushing the more expensive and inefficient plants off the system.

The free-market model became established during a more stable era when domestically-sourced coal, along with gas purchased on long-term contracts from European sources (the North Sea and the Netherlands), constituted a much greater proportion of electricity generation.

While prices fluctuated, they were within a somewhat predictable range, and provided a stable benchmark for the long-term contracts underpinning investment decisions. This is no longer the case as energy markets become increasingly volatile and disrupted during the energy transition.

The idea that free price formation in a competitive market, with governments standing back, would benefit electricity consumers and lead to more efficient systems was rooted in sound economic theory, and is the basis on which other major commodity markets, such as metals and agricultural crops, have been organised for decades.

The free-market model applied to electricity had clear limitations, however, as the majority of domestic consumers have not been exposed directly to real-time price signals. While this is changing with the roll-out of smart meters in many countries, the extent to which the average consumer will be willing or able to reduce demand in a predicable way during peak periods remains uncertain.

Also, experience shows that governments often come under pressure to intervene in markets if prices rise sharply during periods of scarcity, thus undermining a basic tenet of the market model, with EU gas price cap strategies floated as one option.

Given that gas continues to play a crucial role in balancing supply and demand for electricity, the options available to governments are limited, illustrating why rolling back electricity prices is harder than it appears for policymakers. One approach would be would be to keep faith with the liberalised market model, with limited interventions to help consumers in the short term, while ultimately relying on innovations in demand side technologies and alternatives to gas as a means of balancing systems with high shares of variable renewables.

An alternative scenario may see a return to old style national pricing policies, involving a move away from marginal pricing and spot markets, even as the EU prepares to revamp its electricity market in response. In the past, in particular during the post-WWII decades, and until markets were liberalised in the 1990s, governments have taken such an approach, centrally determining prices based on the costs of delivering long term system plans. The operation of gas plants and fuel procurement would become a much more regulated activity under such a model.

Many argue that this ‘traditional model’ better suits a world in which governments have committed to long-term decarbonisation targets, and zero marginal cost sources, such as wind and solar, play a more dominant role in markets and begin to push down prices.

A crucial question for energy policy makers is how to exploit this deflationary effect of renewables and pass-on cost savings to consumers, whilst ensuring that the lights stay on.

Despite the promise of storage technologies such as grid-scale batteries and hydrogen produced from electrolysis, aside from highly polluting coal, no alternative to internationally sourced natural gas as a means of balancing electricity systems and ensuring our energy security is immediately available.

This fact, above all else, will constrain the ambitions of governments to fundamentally transform energy markets.

Ronan Bolton is Reader at the School of Social and Political Science, University of Edinburgh and Co-Director of the UK Energy Research Centre. His book Making Energy Markets: The Origins of Electricity Liberalisation in Europe is to be published by Palgrave Macmillan in 2022.

 

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Ontario’s Electricity Future: Balancing Demand and Emissions 

Ontario Electricity Transition faces surging demand, GHG targets, and federal regulations, balancing natural gas, renewables, battery storage, and grid reliability while pursuing net-zero by 2035 and cost-effective decarbonization for industry, EVs, and growing populations.

 

Key Points

Ontario Electricity Transition is the province's shift to a reliable, low-GHG grid via renewables, storage, and policy.

✅ Demand up 75% by 2050; procurement adds 4,000 MW capacity.

✅ Gas use rises to 25% by 2030, challenging GHG goals.

✅ Tripling wind and solar with storage can cut costs and emissions.

 

Ontario's electricity sector stands at a pivotal crossroads. Once a leader in clean energy, the province now faces the dual challenge of meeting surging demand while adhering to stringent greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction targets. Recent developments, including the expansion of natural gas infrastructure and proposed federal regulations, have intensified debates about the future of Ontario's energy landscape, as this analysis explains in detail.

Rising Demand and the Need for Expansion

Ontario's electricity demand is projected to increase by 75% by 2050, equivalent to adding four and a half cities the size of Toronto to the grid. This surge is driven by factors such as industrial electrification, population growth, and the transition to electric vehicles. In response, as Ontario confronts a looming shortfall in the coming years, the provincial government has initiated its most ambitious energy procurement plan to date, aiming to secure an additional 4,000 megawatts of capacity by 2030. This includes investments in battery storage and natural gas generation to ensure grid reliability during peak demand periods.

The Role of Natural Gas: A Controversial Bridge

Natural gas has become a cornerstone of Ontario's strategy to meet immediate energy needs. However, this reliance comes with environmental costs. The Independent Electricity System Operator (IESO) projects that by 2030, natural gas will account for 25% of Ontario's electricity supply, up from 4% in 2017. This shift raises concerns about the province's ability to meet its GHG reduction targets and to embrace clean power in practice. 

The expansion of gas-fired plants, including broader plans for new gas capacity, such as the Portlands Energy Centre in Toronto, has sparked public outcry. Environmental groups argue that these expansions could undermine local emissions reduction goals and exacerbate health issues related to air quality. For instance, emissions from the Portlands plant have surged from 188,000 tonnes in 2017 to over 600,000 tonnes in 2021, with projections indicating a potential increase to 1.65 million tonnes if the expansion proceeds as planned. 

Federal Regulations and Economic Implications

The federal government's proposed clean electricity regulations aim to achieve a net-zero electricity sector by 2035. However, Ontario's government has expressed concerns that these regulations could impose significant financial burdens. An analysis by the IESO suggests that complying with the new rules would require doubling the province's electricity generation capacity, potentially adding $35 billion in costs by 2050, while other estimates suggest that greening Ontario's grid could cost $400 billion over time. This could result in higher residential electricity bills, ranging from $132 to $168 annually starting in 2033.

Pathways to a Sustainable Future

Experts advocate for a diversified approach to decarbonization that balances environmental goals with economic feasibility. Investments in renewable energy sources, such as new wind and solar resources, along with advancements in energy storage technologies, are seen as critical components of a sustainable energy strategy. Additionally, implementing energy efficiency measures and modernizing grid infrastructure can enhance system resilience and reduce emissions. 

The Ontario Clean Air Alliance proposes phasing out gas power by 2035 through a combination of tripling wind and solar capacity and investing in energy efficiency and storage solutions. This approach not only aims to reduce emissions but also offers potential cost savings compared to continued reliance on gas-fired generation. 

Ontario's journey toward a decarbonized electricity grid is fraught with challenges, including balancing reliability, clean, affordable electricity, and environmental sustainability. While natural gas currently plays a significant role in meeting the province's energy needs, its long-term viability as a bridge fuel remains contentious. The path forward will require careful consideration of technological innovations, regulatory frameworks, and public engagement to ensure a clean, reliable, and economically viable energy future for all Ontarians.

 

 

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