Proposed link for northeast renewable projects

Global Electricity Demand Surge strains power markets, fuels price volatility, and boosts coal and gas generation as renewables lag, driving emissions, according to the IEA, with grids and clean energy investment crucial through 2024.

Key Points

A surge in power use that strained supply, raised prices, and drove power-sector CO2 emissions to record highs.

✅ 6% demand growth in 2021; largest absolute rise ever

✅ Coal up 9%; gas +2%; renewables +6% could not meet demand

✅ Prices doubled vs 2020; volatility hit EU, China, India

Global electricity demand surged above pre-pandemic levels in 2021, creating strains in major markets, pushing prices to unprecedented levels and driving the power sector’s emissions to a record high. Electricity is central to modern life and clean electricity is pivotal to energy transitions, but in the absence of faster structural change in the sector, rising demand over the next three years could result in additional market volatility and continued high emissions, according an IEA report released today.

Driven by the rapid economic rebound, and more extreme weather conditions than in 2020, including a colder than average winter, last year’s 6% rise in global electricity demand was the largest in percentage terms since 2010 when the world was recovering from the global financial crisis. In absolute terms, last year’s increase of over 1 500 terawatt-hours was the largest ever, according to the January 2022 edition of the IEA’s semi-annual Electricity Market Report.

The steep increase in demand outstripped the ability of sources of electricity supply to keep pace in some major markets, with shortages of natural gas and coal leading to volatile prices, demand destruction and negative effects on power generators, retailers and end users, notably in China, Europe and India. Around half of last year’s global growth in electricity demand took place in China, where demand grew by an estimated 10%, highlighting that Asia is set to use half of global electricity by 2025 according to the IEA. China and India suffered from power cuts at certain points in the second half of the year because of coal shortages.

“Sharp spikes in electricity prices in recent times have been causing hardship for many households and businesses around the world and risk becoming a driver of social and political tensions,” said IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol. “Policy makers should be taking action now to soften the impacts on the most vulnerable and to address the underlying causes. Higher investment in low-carbon energy technologies including renewables, energy efficiency and nuclear power – alongside an expansion of robust and smart electricity grids – can help us get out of today’s difficulties.”

The IEA’s price index for major wholesale electricity markets almost doubled compared with 2020 and was up 64% from the 2016-2020 average. In Europe, average wholesale electricity prices in the fourth quarter of 2021 were more than four times their 2015-2020 average, and wind and solar generated more electricity than gas in the EU during the year.  Besides Europe, there were also sharp price increases in Japan and India, while they were more moderate in the United States where gas supplies were less perturbed.

Electricity produced from renewable sources grew by 6% in 2021, but it was not enough to keep up with galloping demand. Coal-fired generation grew by 9%, with soaring electricity and coal use serving more than half of the increase in demand and reaching a new all-time peak as high natural gas prices led to gas-to-coal switching. Gas-fired generation grew by 2%, while nuclear increased by 3.5%, almost reaching its 2019 levels. In total, carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from power generation rose by 7%, also reaching a record high, after having declined the two previous years.

“Emissions from electricity need to decline by 55% by 2030 to meet our Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario, but in the absence of major policy action from governments, those emissions are set to remain around the same level for the next three years,” said Dr Birol. “Not only does this highlight how far off track we currently are from a pathway to net zero emissions by 2050, but it also underscores the massive changes needed for the electricity sector to fulfil its critical role in decarbonising the broader energy system.”

For 2022-2024, the report anticipates electricity demand growing 2.7% a year on average, although the Covid-19 pandemic and high energy prices bring some uncertainty to this outlook. Renewables are set to grow by 8% per year on average, and low-emissions sources are expected to serve more than 90% of net demand growth during this period. We expect nuclear-based generation to grow by 1% annually during the same period.

As a consequence of slowing electricity demand growth and significant renewables additions, fossil fuel-based generation is expected to stagnate in the coming years, and renewables are set to surpass coal by 2025 with coal-fired generation falling slightly as phase-outs and declining competitiveness in the United States and Europe are balanced by growth in markets like China, where electricity demand trends remain a puzzle in recent analyses, and India. Gas-fired generation is seen growing by around 1% a year.

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Daimler Electric Strategy drives EV adoption with global battery factories, Mercedes-Benz electrified models, battery cells procurement, and major investments spanning vans, buses, trucks, and production capacity across Europe, Asia, and the USA.

Key Points

Daimler Electric Strategy is a multi-billion EV roadmap for batteries, factories, and 130 electrified Mercedes models.

✅ Eight battery factories across three continents

✅ EUR 10B for EV lineup; EUR 20B for battery cells

✅ 130 electrified variants plus vans, buses, trucks

Throughout 2018, we all witnessed the unprecedented volume of promises for a better future made by the giants of the auto industry. All say they've committed billions so that, within a decade, combustion engines will be on their way out.

The most active of all companies when talking about promises is Volkswagen, which, amid German plant closures, time and time again has said it will do this or that and completely change the meaning of car in the coming years. But there are other planning the same thing, possibly with even vaster resources.

Planning to end the year on a high note, Daimler detailed its plan for the electric future once again on Tuesday, this time making no secret of its gigantic size and scope.

As announced before, Daimler plans to build electric cars, but also manufacture electric batteries for its own and others’ use, and has launched a US energy storage company to support this strategy. These batteries will eventually be produced by Daimler in eight factories on three continents.

Batteries are already rolling off the lines in Kamenz, and a second facility will begin doing so next year. Two more factories will be built in Stuttgart-Untertürkheim, one at the company’s Sindelfingen site, and one each at the sites in Beijing (China), Bangkok (Thailand) and Tuscaloosa (USA).

In all, one billion EUR will be invested in the expansion of the global battery production network, but that is nothing compared to the 10 billion to be poured into the expansion of the Mercedes-Benz car fleet.

On top of that, 20 billion EUR will go towards the purchase of battery cells from producers all around the world, echoing other automakers' battery sourcing strategies worldwide over the next 12 years.

“After investing billions of euros in the development of the electric fleet and the expansion of our global battery network, we are now taking the next step,” said in a statement Dieter Zetsche, Daimler chairman of the board.

“With the purchase of battery cells for more than 20 billion euros, we are systematically pushing forward with the transformation into the electric future of our company.”

By 2022, the carmaker plans to launch 130 electrified variants of its cars, as cheaper, more powerful batteries become available, adding to them electric vans, buses and trucks. That pretty much means all the models and variants sold by Daimler globally will be at least partially powered by electricity.

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U.S. coal-fired generation 2021 rose as higher natural gas prices, stable coal costs, and a recovering power sector shifted the generation mix; capacity factors rebounded despite low coal stocks and ongoing plant retirements.

Key Points

Coal output rose 22% on high gas prices and higher capacity factors; a 5% decline is expected in 2022.

✅ Natural gas delivered cost averaged $4.93/MMBtu, more than double 2020

✅ Coal capacity factor rose to ~51% from 40% in 2020

✅ 2022 coal generation forecast to fall about 5%

We expect 22% more U.S. coal-fired generation in 2021 than in 2020, according to our latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). The U.S. electric power sector has been generating more electricity from coal-fired power plants this year as a result of significantly higher natural gas prices and relatively stable coal prices, even as non-fossil sources reached 40% of total generation. This year, 2021, will yield the first year-over-year increase in coal generation in the United States since 2014, highlighted by a January power generation jump earlier in the year.

Coal and natural gas have been the two largest sources of electricity generation in the United States. In many areas of the country, these two fuels compete to supply electricity based on their relative costs and sensitivity to policies and gas prices as well. U.S. natural gas prices have been more volatile than coal prices, so the cost of natural gas often determines the relative share of generation provided by natural gas and coal.

Because natural gas-fired power plants convert fuel to electricity more efficiently than coal-fired plants, record natural gas generation has at times underscored that advantage, and natural gas-fired generation can have an economic advantage even if natural gas prices are slightly higher than coal prices. Between 2015 and 2020, the cost of natural gas delivered to electric generators remained relatively low and stable. This year, however, natural gas prices have been much higher than in recent years. The year-to-date delivered cost of natural gas to U.S. power plants has averaged $4.93 per million British thermal units (Btu), more than double last year’s price.

The overall decline in electricity demand in 2020 and record-low natural gas prices led coal plants to significantly reduce the percentage of time that they generated power. In 2020, the utilization rate (known as the capacity factor) of U.S. coal-fired generators averaged 40%. Before 2010, coal capacity factors routinely averaged 70% or more. This year’s higher natural gas prices have increased the average coal capacity factor to about 51%, which is almost the 2018 average, a year when wind and solar reached 10% nationally.

Although rising natural gas prices have resulted in more U.S. coal-fired generation than last year, this increase in coal generation will most likely not continue as solar and wind expand in the generation mix. The electric power sector has retired about 30% of its generating capacity at coal plants since 2010, and no new coal-fired capacity has come online in the United States since 2013. In addition, coal stocks at U.S. power plants are relatively low, and production at operating coal mines has not been increasing as rapidly as the recent increase in coal demand. For 2022, we forecast that U.S. coal-fired generation will decline about 5% in response to continuing retirements of generating capacity at coal power plants and slightly lower natural gas prices.

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Clorox Enel 70 MW VPPA accelerates renewable energy, sourcing Texas solar from the Roadrunner project to support 100% renewable electricity, Scope 2 reductions, and grid decarbonization through a virtual power purchase agreement starting in 2021.

Key Points

A 12-year virtual power purchase agreement for 70 MW of Texas solar to advance Clorox's 100% renewable electricity goal.

✅ 12-year contract supporting 100% renewable electricity by 2021

✅ Supplies 70 MW from Enel's Roadrunner solar project in Texas

✅ Cuts Scope 2 emissions via grid-delivered virtual PPA

The Clorox Company and a wholly owned subsidiary of Enel Green Power North America announced today the signing of a 12-year, 70 megawatt (MW) virtual power purchase agreement (VPPA) for the purchase of renewable energy, aligned with carbon-free electricity investments across the power sector beginning in 2021. Representing about half of Clorox's 100% renewable electricity goal in its operations in the U.S. and Canada, this agreement is expected to help Clorox accelerate achieving its goal in 2021, four years ahead of the company's original plan.

"Climate change and rising greenhouse gas emissions pose a real threat to the health of our planet and ultimately the long-term well-being of people globally. That's why we've taken action for more than 10 years to measure and reduce the carbon footprint of our operations," said Benno Dorer, chair and CEO, The Clorox Company. "Our agreement with Enel helps to expand U.S. renewable energy infrastructure, reflecting our view that companies like Clorox play an important role in addressing global climate change, as landmark policies like the U.S. climate deal further accelerate the transition. We believe this agreement will significantly contribute toward Clorox achieving our goal of 100% renewable electricity in our operations in the U.S. and Canada in 2021, four years earlier than originally planned. Our commitment to climate stewardship is an important pillar of our new IGNITE strategy and part of our overall efforts to drive Good Growth – growth that's profitable, sustainable and responsible."

The 70MW VPPA between Clorox and Enel Green Power North America for the purchase of renewable energy delivered to the electricity grid is for the second phase of Enel's Roadrunner solar project to be built in Texas, and complement global clean energy collaborations such as Canada-Germany hydrogen cooperation announced recently. Roadrunner is a 497-direct current megawatt (MWdc) solar project that is being built in two phases. The first phase, currently under construction, comprises around 252 MWdc and is expected to be completed by the end of 2019, while the remaining 245 MWdc of capacity is expected to be completed by the end of 2020. Once fully operational, the solar plant could generate up to 1.2 terawatt-hours (TWh) of electricity annually, while avoiding an estimated 800,000 metric tons of carbon dioxide emissions per year.

Based on the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Greenhouse Gas Equivalencies Calculator[i], this VPPA is estimated to avoid approximately 140,000 metric tons of CO2 emissions each year. This is equivalent to the annual impact that 165,000 acres of U.S. forest can have in removing CO2 from the atmosphere, and illustrates why cleaning up Canada's electricity is central to emissions reductions in the power sector, or the carbon impact of the electricity needed to power more than 24,000 U.S. homes annually.

"We are proud to support Clorox on their path towards 100% renewable electricity in its operations in the U.S. and Canada by helping them achieve about half their goal through this agreement," said Georgios Papadimitriou, head of Enel Green Power North America. "This agreement with Clorox reinforces the continued significance of renewable energy as a fundamental part of any company's sustainability strategy."

Schneider Electric Energy & Sustainability Services advised Clorox on this power purchase agreement and, amid heightened investor attention exemplified by the Duke Energy climate report, supported the company in its project selection, analysis, negotiations and deal execution.

Clorox Commits to Scope 1, 2 and 3 Science-Based Targets

For more than 10 years, Clorox has consistently achieved its goals to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in its operations. Clorox is focused on setting emissions reduction targets in line with climate science. As a participant in the Science Based Targets Initiative, Clorox has committed to setting and achieving science-based greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets in its operations (Scopes 1 and 2) and across its value chain (Scope 3), and consistent with national pathways such as Canada's net-zero 2050 target pursued by policymakers. The targets are considered "science-based" if they are in line with what the latest climate science says is necessary to meet the goals of the 2015 Paris Agreement – a global environmental accord to address climate change and its negative impacts.

Clorox's climate stewardship goals are part of its new integrated corporate strategy called IGNITE, which includes several other environmental, social and governance (ESG) goals and reflects lessons from Canada's electricity progress in scaling clean power. More comprehensive information about Clorox's IGNITE ESG goals can be found here. Information on Clorox's 2020 ESG strategy can be found in its fiscal year 2019 annual report.

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SDG&E Minimum Bill Proposal would impose a $38.40 fixed charge, discouraging rooftop solar, burdening low income households, and shifting grid costs during peak demand, as the CPUC weighs consumer impacts and affordability.

Key Points

Sets a $38.40 monthly minimum bill that raises low usage costs, deters rooftop solar, and burdens low income households.

✅ $38.40 fixed charge regardless of usage

✅ Disincentivizes rooftop solar investments

✅ Disproportionate impact on low income customers

The utility San Diego Gas & Energy has an aggressive proposal pending before the California Public Utilities Commission, amid recent commission changes in San Diego that highlight how regulatory decisions affect local customers: It wants to charge most residential customers a minimum bill of $38.40 each month, regardless of how much energy they use. The costs of this policy would hit low-income customers and those who generate their own energy with rooftop solar. We’re urging the Commission to oppose this flawed plan—and we need your help.

SDG&E’s proposal is bad news for sustainable energy. About half of the customers whose bills would go up under this proposal have rooftop solar. The policy would deter other customers from investing in rooftop solar by making these investments less economical. Ultimately, lost opportunities for solar would mean burning more gas in polluting power plants. 

The proposal is also bad news for people who already have to scrimp on energy costs. Most customers with big homes and billowing air conditioners won't notice if this policy goes into effect, because they use at least $38 worth of electricity a month anyway. But for households that don’t buy much electricity from the company, including those in small apartments without air conditioning, this proposal would raise the bills. Even for customers on special low-income rates, amid electric bill changes statewide, SDG&E wants a minimum bill of $19.20.

Penalizing customers who don’t use much electricity would disproportionately hurt lower-income customers, raising energy equity concerns across the region, who tend to use less energy than their wealthier neighbors. In the region SDG&E serves, the average family in an apartment uses half as much electricity as a single-family residence. Statewide, low-income households are more than four times as likely to be low-usage electricity customers than high-income households. When it gets hot, residential electricity patterns are often driven by air conditioning. The vast majority of SDG&E's customers live in the coastal climate zone, where access to air conditioning is strongly linked to income: Households with incomes over $150,000 are more than twice as likely to have air conditioning than families making less than $35,000, with significant racial disparities in who has AC.

In its attempt to rationalize its request, SDG&E argues that it should charge everyone for infrastructure costs that do not depend on how much energy they use. But the cost of the grid is driven by how much energy SDG&E delivers on hot summer afternoons, when some customers blast their AC and demand for electricity peaks. If more customers relied on their own solar power or conserved energy, the utility would spend less on its grid and help rein in soaring electricity prices over time.

In the long term, reducing incentives to go solar and conserve energy will strain the grid and drive up costs for everyone, especially as lawmakers may overturn income-based charges and reshape rate design. SDG&E's arguments are part of a standard utility playbook for trying to hike income-based fixed charges, and consumer advocates have repeatedly shut them down.  As far as we know, no regulators in the country have allowed a utility to charge customers over $38 for the “privilege” of accessing electric service. 

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Germany EV Subsidy Cut triggers budget-crisis fallout in the automotive industry, after a constitutional court ruling; EV incentives end, threatening electromobility adoption, manufacturer competitiveness, 2030 targets, and demand amid Chinese competition and weak global growth.

Key Points

A sudden end to Germany's EV incentives due to a budget shortfall after a court ruling, hurting automakers and adoption.

✅ Ends buyer rebates amid budget crisis ruling

✅ Risks 2030 EV targets and industry competitiveness

✅ Weak demand and China competition intensify

The German government has faced a backlash after abruptly ending an electric car subsidy scheme in a blow to the already struggling automotive industry.

The scheme is one of the casualties of a budget crisis caused by a shock constitutional court ruling in November that upended the government's spending plans.

The economy ministry said Saturday that Sunday would be the last day prospective buyers could apply for the scheme, which paid out thousands of euros per customer to partially cover the cost of buying an electric car today.

A spokesman for the ministry admitted it was an "unfortunate situation" for consumers who had been hoping to take advantage of the subsidy, but it had no choice "because there is no longer enough money available."

Analyst Ferdinand Dudenhoeffer from the Center for Automotive Research warned the decision could have dramatic consequences amid a Europe EV slump already pressuring demand.

"The competitiveness of [auto] manufacturers will now be severely damaged," Dudenhoeffer told the Rheinische Post newspaper.

The Handelsblatt business daily had already warned that scrapping the scheme risked jeopardizing Germany's plans to get 15 million electric cars on the road by 2030, even though the EU EV share grew during lockdowns earlier in the pandemic.

"This goal was already considered extremely unrealistic. Now it seems completely illusory," it wrote.

In the UK, analysts warn that electric cars could cost more if a post-Brexit deal is not reached, underscoring wider market uncertainties.

A total of around 10 billion euros ($1.1 billion) has been paid out since 2016 under the scheme for around 2.1 million electric vehicles, according to the economy ministry.

Germany's flagship automotive industry, including Volkswagen, has been struggling with the transition to electromobility due to a weak global economy and low levels of demand.

In addition, it is facing a serious challenge from homegrown rivals in China, one of its most important markets, as France moves to discourage Chinese EVs with new rules.

"The Chinese are massively expanding their car industry because they have customers. Our manufacturers no longer have any," Dudenhoeffer said, as France's incentive rules make the market tougher for Chinese brands.

Germany's highest court decided last month that the government had broken a constitutional debt rule when it transferred 60 billion euros earmarked for pandemic support to a climate fund.

The bombshell ruling blew a huge hole in spending plans and plunged Chancellor Olaf Scholz's three-way coalition into turmoil.

After adopting an emergency budget for 2023, Scholz and his junior coalition partners battled for weeks before finally finding an agreement for 2024.

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